This Won't End Well (EP. 464)

Summary

Animal Spirits Podcast – "This Won't End Well" (Ep. 464) Summary

Podcast: Animal Spirits
Hosts: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson
Date: May 13, 2026
Theme: Exploring the current market “melt-up,” cycles of risk and reward, AI’s seismic impact on investing, labor, and society, and how advisors and investors need to adapt.

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Main Theme & Purpose

The episode unpacks one of the wildest bull market periods in history and the reasons behind its apparent rationality—even as many fear it “won’t end well.” The hosts, Michael and Ben, discuss Ben’s just-published book “Risk and Reward,” the logic and psychology of market cycles, AI’s disrupting force across industries (particularly financial services), the structural shifts in global equity markets, and the behavioral pitfalls investors are facing in 2026.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ben’s New Book: "Risk and Reward"

• Overview: Ben introduces his latest book, detailing how he distilled 12+ years of work into a comprehensive exploration of investing’s balance between risk and reward.
• Book Approach: Alternates chapters between showcasing “risk” and “reward,” focusing on context, charts, history, and investing psychology ([04:06]).
• Quote:

  “These are all the bad things that can and have happened in the past hundred years. Let's lay it out there...Here's how you survive them, and here's what they really mean to you as an investor.” – Ben Carlson ([04:06])

• For Whom: Both overly cautious investors and those now “taking too much risk thinking good times will never end” ([07:00]).

Audiobook Experience

• Ben narrates the audiobook himself—shares behind-the-scenes studio anecdotes, including giving anxiety to a non-finance British producer by recounting crashes and bear markets ([05:28]).

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2. Market Cycles: Bull Market “Melt-Up” and its Rationality

Discussion of the Melt-Up

• Definition: The S&P 500 climbed 16% in six weeks, fastest since the GFC, driven by massive gains in semiconductor stocks ([09:10]).
• Quote:

  “We are factually melting higher.” – Michael Batnick ([10:00]) “Of any melt up we've ever had, this one makes the most sense.” – Ben Carlson ([10:04])

Historical Context

• Review of past decade-long bull markets: Roaring 20s, 1950s US, 1980s Japan, 1990s Nasdaq, and today’s Nasdaq 100—all with explosive late-stage melt-ups ([11:08]).

This Cycle’s Uniqueness

• Unlike prior melt-ups, this one is:
  • Driven by improved fundamentals, not just hype (semiconductors’ earnings and margins are surging).
  • Marked by sharp pullbacks and resets, not a smooth uptrend.
  • Spreading beyond US megacaps to Asia and emerging markets ([12:07], [25:43], [27:03]).

Bubble Discourse

• Hosts dissect whether the market is in a bubble, using forward PE ratios for semiconductor stocks and the market as a whole—finding “bubble” claims unsupported by underlying profitability ([18:03], [19:40]).
• Quote:

  “A bubble is...when a situation where the future cannot possibly explain the present...that was Japan in the 1980s...” – Ben Carlson ([20:20])

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3. Semiconductor & AI Mania: Fundamentals Behind the Run

• Stats: SOXX semiconductors’ market cap: 6% → 22% of S&P 500 in 12 months ([14:41]).
• Individual stocks (Micron, SanDisk) up 800%+—yet trading under 10x forward earnings due to cyclical nature ([16:14]).
• AI infrastructure spending surpassing even defense budgets: “Hyperscalers...are going to spend $800 billion this year, $1.1 trillion next year” ([36:20]).

South Korea & Emerging Markets Boom

• South Korea’s stock market now 7th largest globally, overtaking the UK; 10 years’ worth of price gains were realized in a single year ([25:50], [26:48]).
• Emerging markets rallying 23% in six weeks ([27:03]).

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4. Investor Behavior & Sentiment: Diverging “Pulses”

• Schwab saw record-low trading activity as mature investors sit tight, while Citadel saw record retail inflows—highlighting the fragmentation of investor sentiment ([21:32]-[22:11]).
• Hosts note there is “no single pulse of the market...there are a million pulses” ([22:35]).

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5. AI and Disruption: Financial Advisors, Training, and Society

The Rise of AI in Finance

• Advisors must adapt to clients who arrive highly informed by “Claude” and ChatGPT ([29:30]).
• Asset allocation has become a commodity—the real value is in personalizing advice and rules-based approaches ([30:46], [33:48]).
• Plug: Ritholtz launches its own “Porterhouse” in-house momentum strategy, favoring rules over individual stock-picking ([32:21]-[34:55]).

Customer Service Revolution

• Anecdote: Ben gets a Chipotle refund instantly from an AI chatbot ([48:40]).

AI’s Impact on Skills & Social Structure

• Essay read by Michael: AI absorbs “grunt work” jobs, hollowing out professions and crushing entry-level training ([41:04]).
• Quote:

  “The efficiency gain and the training loss are the same decision viewed from different angles.” – Michael Batnick, reading from Bailey Gifford ([41:04])

• Large, educated populations unable to find entry-level white collar work are historical precursors to social instability ([42:50]-[43:57]).
• Ben’s reflection: Young people are cynical, and with reason—they see housing unaffordability and looming AI threats ([43:57]-[45:53]).

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6. Behavioral Psychology: Speed Bumps and “Brick” Devices

• Michael uses a device (Brick) to block Instagram and apps, likening it to “speed bumps” in neighborhoods, essential for curbing destructive habits ([57:26]).
• On self-control:

  “Sometimes you need the speed bumps, you need the brick to stop your behavior.” – Ben ([58:30])

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7. Longevity, Wealth Transfer, and Financial Planning

• The coming “Great Wealth Transfer” won’t hit millennials in force until the 2030s-2040s due to increasing life expectancy ([63:55]).
• Much of the initial wealth transfer will go to surviving spouses (primarily women), not children ([65:23]).
• Anxiety over outliving savings is rising as more people live into their 90s ([63:42]).
• Quote:

  “I know people now who live beyond their means and don't save anything because they know...‘my rich parents are going to give me their money.’” – Ben ([64:10])

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8. Health Trends: GLP-1s, Ozempic, and Consumer Shifts

• Widespread adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is hitting alcohol and food companies’ profits hard ([54:15]).
• Stat: 5.8% of Americans used a GLP-1 in early 2024, projected to 12.4% soon ([62:11]).
• Observations on side effects, social stigma, and muscle loss ([55:00]-[55:39]).

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9. Media & Pop Culture

• Strong recommendations for “Remarkably Bright Creatures” (Netflix) and shout-outs to quirky, concise movies (<95 min) ([66:26]-[68:06]).
• Discussion of “Painkiller,” “Send Help,” and Apple TV’s surprise high-quality shows ([69:44]).

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Notable Quotes

• “You can't get the long-term rewards without accepting those short-term risks.” – Ben ([08:26])
• “There’s no single pulse of the market. There are a million pulses.” – Michael ([22:35])
• “Asset allocation is a commodity. Advisors have to stand out elsewhere.” – Ben ([30:46])
• [On AI] “The efficiency gain and the training loss are the same decision viewed from different angles.” – Bailey Gifford via Michael ([41:04])
• “Sometimes you need the speed bumps, you need the brick to stop your behavior.” – Ben ([58:30])

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Timestamps to Key Segments

• [02:59] – Ben’s book journey: “Risk and Reward”
• [07:00] – For whom the book is written: cautious vs. risk-hungry investors
• [09:10] – The “melt-up” explained; is it different this time?
• [14:41] – Semiconductor boom and concentration in the S&P 500
• [18:03] – Valuations vs. fundamentals (Micron, Nvidia, SanDisk et al.)
• [20:20] – What makes a market bubble: Japan 1980s comparison
• [21:32] – Divergent investor behaviors: Schwab vs. Citadel data
• [27:03] – Emerging markets rally, global AI beneficiaries
• [29:30] – AI readiness for financial advisors
• [41:04]-[43:57] – AI’s impact on training, labor, and society
• [47:05] – Chipotle customer service: AI chatbot use-case
• [54:37] – Ozempic and the radical consumer shift in the food and beverage industries
• [63:42] – Longevity, inheritance, and the wealth transfer timing

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Memorable Moments

• The tension between bubble fears and tangible earnings growth in the AI/semiconductor sector.
• Michael’s “brick” anecdote as a behavioral insight into managing digital distractions.
• The extended riff on market “pulses,” showing the futility of single-narrative finance commentary.
• Ben’s touching story about early-career learning, emphasizing what’s being lost with AI removing grunt work ([44:40]).
• Lighthearted takes on fitness, the Apple group chat “Irish exit” dilemma, and pop culture recommendations, adding the podcast’s trademark human touch.

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Tone & Style

Conversational, witty, self-deprecating, and full of the hosts’ signature analogies and digressions. The episode deftly weaves technical market analysis with relatable life lessons, boisterous banter, and social commentary—all while keeping investment psychology front and center.

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For listeners seeking a reality check on markets, insight into what’s driving the current bull run, how AI is overhauling finance and work, and the human quirks that drive financial decisions—this episode is a must.

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Contact: [e-mail]

Transcript

[Michael Batnick]

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[Podcast Introduction]

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investment. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

[Ben Carlson]

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael My least favorite thing to do is self promotion, but I'm gonna do it okay, which is kind of weird in a content game. I heard Michael Kitzias at a talk one time say that blogging is marketing for introverts.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, that's good.

[Ben Carlson]

Which is why I think I liked it so much. So I have a new book out today called Risk and Reward. I really, I love the COVID The I had a really, I had a cover in mind that I wanted and my publisher wasn't quite getting there. And so I went to Daniel on our production team, one of our creatives, and I said, daniel, here's what I want. Do it for me. And he gave it back like even better than I thought it would be. And so I really wanted this Book to look nice. And so I also went to Chart Kid Matt and I said, hey, I'm going to have. I think there's over 50 charts and tables in the books. And I said, I want it to look really good. Help me make it look good. So he gave me these formatting things and he said, use these formats and then just input your data in there. So anyway, the book looks good. I'm really happy with that. I think it's the best thing I've ever written. I mean, not to toot my own horn, but yeah. So the book is out now.

[Michael Batnick]

Wait, why do you think that? So your first book was a wealth of common sense.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

Your second book was Organizational Alpha.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. There's two books I wrote that don't count as books though they were self published. Little

[Michael Batnick]

Don't Fall for it was a real book.

[Ben Carlson]

Yep. This is. Yeah. And I think that one was. I had fun writing that one, but it was like it wasn't my core competency. You know what I mean?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

This is basically 12 plus years of writing and thinking distilled into one book. Everything that I've done. So. Bill Bernstein once said that there are four things every investor needs to be successful. He said you have to have an interest in the process. You have to have some math horsepower, you have to have a deep understanding of financial history. And you also have to have the behavioral psychology, emotional part. And so I wanted to cover all four of those things in the book because that's what I've been writing about for a dozen years now. And that's what it is. And the biggest pushback I've gotten anytime I write about the long term is like, what about this and what about that? And did you think about this?

[Michael Batnick]

That's the whole point, right?

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. But that's the book I wanted to, I wanted to just so I the. In the introduction I said how this book is, you know. You know, in the rap battle at the end of 8 mile, an 8 mile guy, huge. When Eminem just does a self deprecating thing and he says all the bad things about himself. I do live in trailer park with my mom. All these things, I wanted to put it out there like, okay, these are all the bad things that can and have happened in the past hundred years. Let's lay it out there. These are the horrible, horrible things that have happened. Here's how you think about them, here's the context behind them, here's how you survive them and here's what they really mean to you as an investor. That's what I wanted to do. So risk and reward. It's a yin and yang. So one chapter is the risk, the next chapter is the reward. It's like the context. It's the charts, it's the data, it's the thinking behind it.

[Michael Batnick]

You really can't have one without the other. Right? It's like love and marriage.

[Ben Carlson]

So they're attached at the hip.

[Michael Batnick]

That's right.

[Ben Carlson]

That's the.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, well, I haven't read it yet, but I am excited to do.

[Ben Carlson]

So I sent a bunch of copies to the office in New York.

[Michael Batnick]

Are we doing an audiobook for the Reading Challenged?

[Ben Carlson]

I did an audiobook and I read it myself. You know, it's funny because. So I go into this studio, and first they said, do you want just to have some British guy read it with an accent and it'll sound nice? And I said, yeah, just let him do it. I don't want to do it. And then I thought. Then someone said to me, dude, you have a podcast. You should read this. What are you thinking?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, it's good advice.

[Ben Carlson]

And I said, yeah, that is good advice. So I said, I did it. So I went to a studio for like a day and a half and read the book. And it was hard because you had to get in, like, this cadence. And I had a guy in my ear from London. Cause my Herriman house is based in London. He was the producer of it. He kept saying, hey, read this word again, do this sentence again, slow down, speed up, all these things. And about halfway through the book, he goes, I gotta tell you, I'm not a finance person at all. I'm in the publishing industry. And listening to you describe all of these things is very anxiety inducing. Like all the bad, like the Great depression in the 1970s and the 87, all this stuff. He's like, it's kind of bringing me anxiety. But I also like the fact that you're, like, bringing it back home and tying and turning it around and giving me the context behind it and telling me how to handle these things. So I turned one British guy onto the book at least.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. So, yes, I read the book. It's funny because to read the book, you have to get into, like, a cadence. It's like a rhythm. And so I finally figured out the rhythm, like, halfway through the first day.

[Michael Batnick]

How does it work? Do you read a chapter at a time or a couple of chapters at a time?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, a chapter at a time. Take a little water break, another chapter, lunch break. And then at the End I finally, I figured out the rhythm and he said, all right, let's read the first three chapters again. Because he didn't have it then.

[Michael Batnick]

How many sessions, how many different sessions did it take?

[Ben Carlson]

I was there for probably a day and three quarters, almost two full days.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, wow.

[Ben Carlson]

I've heard some people say that it takes four. I don't know the book, like I said, there's 50 charts and stuff. The book is 200 pages essentially.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, so it's an easy read.

[Ben Carlson]

It's an easy read.

[Michael Batnick]

Who's it for?

[Ben Carlson]

I thought about this. I think there's two types of investors out there. One investor who is. And this was the people in the 2010s that was too conservative and every single negative drumbeat got to them and they were investing from the fetal position. This is for them. This is also for the people now who are the other side of the boat and taking too much risk and thinking like this. The good times will never end. It's for both of those people. And so I think it's a good reminder of both. Yeah. This is why I'm so interested in this current cycle because everything in history tells me that these periods of above average returns are going to end in tears. Yeah, it's never happened before. We haven't ended in tears.

[Michael Batnick]

You know what's interesting? I was, I was talking to a friend the other day about the bull market. And obviously we are in the business of taking care of people's money and our lives, our jobs are a lot easier when the wind is at our back, of course. And it's like being sick. When you're sick, all you want to do is be healthy again and then you get healthy and you totally forget about being sick. I think a bull market is similar and the opposite is true too. Like when things are good, you don't think about the bad times. And when, when we're in the bear market, it seems like the sun is never going to shine again. But you are here to tell people that you can't have the good times without the bad times.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. So the book is a reminder to people on both ends of the spectrum that it's got to be both ways. And the whole point is you can't get the long term rewards without taking those short term, without accepting those short term risks. That's the thing. So anyway, take a look now. It's everywhere. Like I said, Kindle. It's a paperback book. I read the audiobook. Herriman House published it. It's at all the places you Know where they are.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, let's get back to the stock market. Congrats on the book, Ben.

[Ben Carlson]

You're also the other thing. My, my, my publisher said one more thing. He was like, listen, whenever this book comes out, it's going to make sense because there's always going to be another risk.

[Michael Batnick]

Right.

[Ben Carlson]

And it's not going to be like the last risk. But he's like, there's, there's never going to be a bad time for this to come out. Well, because it looks at both sides

[Michael Batnick]

of the coin, the most recent risks have subsided. The, the anxiety over the war seems to be behind us. And we were saying on the show, not that we could have foreseen anything like what just happened, but assuming that the war ends and assume that crude oil doesn't go to 200 and assuming that the earnings momentum keeps going. And these are not like, these are not long side assumptions. Assumptions. Right. It was just, let's just assume things go back to the way they were before the war. And sure enough, they have. And we've had a hell of a rally. The S and p has gained 16 in six weeks. Most since, most since the GFC. And now the new worry, or part of the new worry is, oh, we're in a melt up. And it's not every stock at all.

[Ben Carlson]

It sure feels like this is a melt up, doesn't it?

[Michael Batnick]

Well, it is a melt up. We are factually melting higher.

[Ben Carlson]

Is this not the melt up that makes the most sense in history though? Of any melt up we've ever had, this one makes the most sense.

[Michael Batnick]

What do you mean by that?

[Ben Carlson]

I'm going to get into it. I just want to say one of the things that people say when they worry about the melt up stuff that you're hearing more and more, and it's funny because you hear this every three years in this bull market is what inning are we in? Yeah, Oh, I see. We're, I see we're at the part of the cycle where,

[Michael Batnick]

you know, it's so, and like the people that say this, do they forget they say this every single time?

[Ben Carlson]

That's the problem. I've seen this movie before. I know how it ends. This won't end well. Textbook late cycle behavior. All I want to tell people is if you don't have an open mind yet about this bull market, when are you ever going to have it? I, I, there's so many times in this when it seems like this run is over. I think you just have to have an open mind. That's the only thing I say I did. So I had Matt recreate this. I shared this on our Slack research channel. I created this melt up chart last year. Last year and it shows the roaring twenties for the Dow. So this is ten year returns. The roaring twenties for the Dow are up almost 5,500%.

[Michael Batnick]

Wait, can I, can I suggestion?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

This chart, these, these are not melt ups. A melt up in my opinion is something that happens over a short time frame, one to three months. This should say measurable markets because these are the great equivalent. Yes.

[Ben Carlson]

That's not equivalent, I think, but I think every one of these bull markets ended in a melt up. How's that? You can see that the end of the lines all just go whoop and they go straight up. Okay, so the 1950s is probably the most underrated, underestimated bull market. And maybe that's the one that didn't end in tears really because it wasn't until like the 70s where things got bad. So that was up 500% as well. Japan in the 80s was up over 500%. The NASDAQ in the 90s, this is the one we're not even close to. Well, kind of close. It was up almost 800% in total in that 10 year period. The NASDAQ 100 now over the past 10 years is up nearly 650% higher than the Dow of the 20s, higher than the S&P in the 50s, higher than Japan in the 80s and oh boy, this is just, this is an all time run.

[Michael Batnick]

It is an all time run. One question that I would have about this period, I feel like out of the 1, 2 out of the 5 lines on this chart, this is the period that has the most bear markets, the most 15 plus percent pullbacks. 20% plus pullbacks. Yes, I, we've that we've had a lot of resets.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. Even in the 80s and 90s it was only, the only one. There was only one 20% pullback and it was 1987. There was one in 1990 that was like 90% and change. So you're right. In terms of like bear markets, 2022 was a legitimate bear market. 2020 was a legitimate crash situation. I, I agree with that. So I want to talk about this on TCAF a little bit on Friday. But I think you could make the case that we'll have more of those periods where you have like a one or two month crash then like an extended crash going forward because of the way markets work now. Like we're going to have more bad Months, like more gnarly months than we would have. Like, really bad years in terms of like the magnitude of losses.

[Michael Batnick]

So we're going to get into some of the stocks driving the melt up. But like, you would have to believe, and Josh and I spoke about this a week or two ago, what are the odds that Micron has a 40 pullback, like a pretty quick 40 pullback over the next year? And I think we pegged it at like 75. Now, obviously, obviously we're pulling that straight out of our butt, but.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

But Micron, Micron just had one, like literally in. So Micron reported the best quarter ever. I don't know if sales were up 10 times. I mean, it was a stupid quarter. They beat whatever it was. Earnings were up 5x year over year. Literally last quarter they beat, they had the, they had an insane report and the stock sold off by 30%. And should that not have been the absolute top of the top? Now we've seen, we've, we've got another quarter and the numbers are just even more insane. But I repeat, in the first quarter, Micron had a monster, monster beat. And the stock sold off 30%. And that was. The stock went from 460 on March 18th down to 320 on March 30th in 12 days. Not even sessions. In like whatever, seven sessions, whatever that is, eight sessions. The stock fell 30% to a low of four. 2320. Ben, it's now at 800. This was at the end of March. It was at 320 and now it's at 800.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, the good news here is that we're not talking about the Mag 7 anymore. We're talking about semiconductors. So this is from Bespoke. The market cap of semi stocks in the SOXX index. SOX index is now 22% of the S&P 500 market cap. It was 6% at the end of April 2025, over a year ago. 6% to 22% in the S&P 500. Wow. This has to be a historic run.

[Michael Batnick]

It is.

[Ben Carlson]

So SanDisk is up 4,000% in the last year. 4,000%. Go through all the Micron and Western Digital and all these different names. The SMH ETF is going bananas. Eddie Ardenny has this thing that's saying, he calls it the AI 11 versus the Mag 7. And he shows SanDisk and Intel and Western Digital, Omicron and all these different, all the, all the South Korean stocks, and they are destroying the Mag 7. So the good news is we don't have to worry about concentration anymore with the melt up. Right. That we've moved on from that worry. So that's good news.

[Michael Batnick]

And you have to talk about the fundamentals. It's not just that investors are going insane. Although if you look at a chart, it sure seems that way.

[Ben Carlson]

So this is, this is why I said this is the melt up that makes the most sense. Because if you look at the fundamentals, they've improved this year on the market.

[Michael Batnick]

Micron is trading. This sounds hard to believe. We're talking about how much is Micron up year to date? I'll check right now. So Micron is up year to date, 180%.

[Ben Carlson]

Yep.

[Michael Batnick]

Those are baby numbers over the last year. Micron's up 800%. 800%. All right. So is this crazy? Is this a bubble? Does this make sense? Well, you have to look at the fundamentals. Micron is trading at 9.7 times 2026 earnings. 9.77. SanDisk 11.5. Micron Looking at the 2027, the estimates are 7 times earnings and SanDisk is 8.4 times earnings. Now you might say, if you're not, if you're just a casual listener, why are these stocks. So I'm using air quote cheap. These are, these memory names are the most cyclical businesses ever. If you look at charts of their revenue or their margins or whatever, they swing wildly and investors rightfully so. We, we have seen this movie a million times with memory stocks. We're not going to pay up for them.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, these, these stocks have been around for a long time. These aren't like new flash in the pan stocks.

[Michael Batnick]

So it's amazing that simultaneously a stock could be up 800% and also trade at less than 10 times earnings. And it's because it is being, obviously, and we'll talk about this, it is being driven by an insatiable demand for compute. If you are a Claude user, you might have noticed some slowdown, some limits happening. Dario said they grew. What Was the number? 80 times in the last quarter or something like they cannot handle all of the growth. So is this sustainable? I mean, that's another question, another story. Who knows? I certainly don't know what, what earnings of Micron are going to be a year, two years out. But the market is sort of discounting it. The market is saying like, yeah, no, you're trading at 10 times earnings. That makes sense.

[Ben Carlson]

So a few, a few charts here. This, these are from Duality Research. The forward P E for the S and p is at 21 times right now, that's below where it was trading in January 2025. The market is up 30% since then. Okay. The market has risen. 30% in the P E ratio has fallen because earnings are outpacing the market.

[Michael Batnick]

I was talking to Charcot about this. I think this makes sense. And he's working on some numbers. Like, you know, we've shared a chart. He shared a chart. Nvidia has gotten cheaper. If you just look at the forward pe. Okay, this is logical. It's one thing to trade at a premium valuation when Your earnings are $8 billion, when your earnings are 60 billion, and I'm making that number up and growing that fast. You can't have a premium multiple. The numbers are too big.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

If Nvidia traded a premium multiple, it would be 15% of the index. So I don't, I don't like. I know the 4P has gotten cheaper. That is logical.

[Ben Carlson]

That's. You can't so big. The market knows you can't grow and you can't go for the rest of the world.

[Michael Batnick]

Correct. You can't trade at a premium multiple with. With numbers that big.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, so this is what we've talked about before. It's valuation versus profitability. It looks at the forward PE ratio versus the forward profit margin. And this thing has continued to fall. It's risen a little bit, but it's way below the historical trend line. Right. Now, if you look at this, if you looked at this chart alone, you'd say market looks kind of cheap based on margins. And Ford PE, which is nuts. Gungeon has one. The year to date, change in the S&P 500 price, earnings and valuation. And the P ratio has fallen 4% this year even though the index is up 8%. Nuts. This is, this is why this melt up is the most logical melt up in history.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. So who was I talking to about this? The word bubble. To me, you have to be careful using it. I know I throw it around all the time, like, whatever. It's just, you know, it's part of the common vernacular. But to me, a bubble is prices at which the future cannot match. Current reality cannot happen. Like there's no plausible outcome. There is no ace in the hole. There is no get out of jail free card. It cannot mathematically happen. And we're telling you that the stocks that you would think are probably in a bubble by looking at the price and not. It would hard be hard to argue they're trading at 10 times earnings. Not to say they can't fall. 70%. Because they probably will. I mean, I don't know probably. Who am I to say? But they certainly can. And that would improve a bubble, right?

[Ben Carlson]

I don't have the exact quote. Cliff Asnest. I quote him in the book talking about Japan. He said a bubble is. Yes. When a situation where the future cannot possibly explain the present.

[Michael Batnick]

Correct. And guess what?

[Ben Carlson]

That was Japan in the 1980s. The fundamentals were so detached from reality. People saying that now aren't looking at the fundamentals.

[Michael Batnick]

How many of your friends are asking you, Ben, about Micron?

[Ben Carlson]

I haven't had many civilian market conversations in a while, to tell you the truth.

[Michael Batnick]

I don't know if I put this in the doc. Oh, here we go. Okay. This is. You know how I talk about, like. Well, which trader are we talking about when we. When we're talking about, like, the mood of the market or everybody's this or everybody's that?

[Ben Carlson]

The s. You always. You always get mad at me when I do that because you say, who you talking to? Who are you talking about?

[Michael Batnick]

Well, yeah. Who are you talking about? You're making it up. Like everybody. Is this based on what? So I think.

[Ben Carlson]

I think we have a good finger on the pulse based on the feedback we get.

[Michael Batnick]

There's. There's too many pulses.

[Ben Carlson]

That's true.

[Michael Batnick]

So Schwab trading activity index stacks had the largest decline in. Oh, man. I have the chart, but I don't have the data. I think it was the largest decline since like 2021. Month over month. That's Charles Schwab, the biggest custodian on the planet. Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

What would explain. What do you think would explain that?

[Michael Batnick]

Not the point. And then next to that. No, that's not. That's not the point I'm making.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

Next to Charles Schwab. This is from daily chart book. Retail activity, aggregate retail investor equity flows in our platform. This is from Citadel, sharply accelerated in April after explaining a breeze after experience a brief pause. From the record outflow. From the record inflows. To begin this year, the net buying on our platform last week alone was in the 98th percentile of weekly flow since 2019. Okay. Schwal Schwab has the biggest monthly decline in investor sentiment and activity. Not just sentiment, not squishy activity since 2021. And Citadel Market makers, which is like Robin and all the traders, was in the 90th percentile of weekly flow since 2019. So there is no pulse of the market. There are a million pulses.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. Yes, I. Yeah. And that. Now that you say the Explanation is, is obvious. People with more mature portfolios at this point are saying, all right, I'm not doing anything right now. There's, I'm not touching this. I'm gonna let it go. I'm not gonna do one way or the other. And the other people are going, no, we're putting our foot on the gas.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, correct.

[Ben Carlson]

That makes sense. Back to the bubble talk. Warren Pies says, are we in a bubble? Is this 2000 my opinion? No and no. Remember these questions have been in the air for years now. Fiscal policy remains one of the most important macro differences. In 2000, the government was running a 2% surplus. Today the deficit is 6%. And it's funny because. And he has all these change he looks at like today versus the 90s in this chart. It's pretty interesting and it's funny because we heard this in the 2000 and tens where people said the only reason the market is going up is because the Fed has rates so low. The market is being manipulated. And they'd be the ones like on the sideline telling you go to cash. In this decade, it's been the only reason everything is up so much is because the government printed trillions of dollars. Then they want you to use that as a reason to get out. And it's like, no, no, no. That's the reason to still be in. That's one of the reasons why this is all a 6% deficit. Guess where, guess where that money goes. Profits for companies.

[Michael Batnick]

That's right.

[Ben Carlson]

This is not the reason to get out. This is the reason to stay in.

[Michael Batnick]

That's such a great point. So what I know we spoke with this last week was Google's beat in a 90% beat.

[Ben Carlson]

It was very high. Yes. I want to talk about South Korea though for a second because this is, this is another. If you look at the chart and I feel like unless you're using a very long. Because I, I put a bunch of these vertical charts on social media last week. Like there's all these charts, SanDisk and WDC and then if you look at EWY, which is a South Korean ETF, it just is going vertical.

[Michael Batnick]

Excuse. Oh, my voice cracked.

[Ben Carlson]

You really did.

[Michael Batnick]

You do need to log these charts.

[Ben Carlson]

But why do you need to log it if it's so if it's this short term, I feel like a log is fine for a long term chart. For a short term chart, I don't need a log.

[Michael Batnick]

What are you talking about, Ben? The South Korea chart goes back to 2000. It's 25 years. Of course you have to log it.

[Ben Carlson]

Hello.

[Michael Batnick]

You literally have to log this.

[Ben Carlson]

I know you're looking at like 5 year, 10 year charts. I feel like 10 years you're good with not logging.

[Michael Batnick]

That's where I, that I'm looking at in this dot goes back to 2000.

[Ben Carlson]

That's fair. So South Korea for the last 10 years is up like 250%. It's up. All of that gain has happened in the last one year. Okay. All that entire gain in the last 10 years for South Korea. Seven in the one year. Daniel Van Aen, I think I said his name right.

[Michael Batnick]

By the way, the reason, the reason why you need to lock these charts for people like, what the hell are you guys talking about? If a stock goes, if, if you look at a stock chart, it goes from 20 to 40 and the stock is at is and the stock goes from 300 to 600. The move to 300 dwarfs it visually, but it's the same thing. So a lot just eliminates the changes.

[Ben Carlson]

But the, the worst people in terms of going into chart crime jail are the ones who narrow their charts very considerably. So it makes it look like the chart is going just from zero to a million. Right. They make, especially on social media, people know how to narrow. Anyway, so he shows the forward EPS for South Korean stocks. And look at this also going vertical right alongside. And this went nowhere forever. Why? Because these are now AI stocks.

[Michael Batnick]

This, this is, this is remarkable. You don't, you don't see earnings per share charts looking like a meme stock very often.

[Ben Carlson]

No, but look, it tracks the price, the stock prices. Exactly. This is fundamentals and prices matching up with one another. But obviously people have pointed out two stocks make up 50% of this index. So if you think we're concentrated here. So it's sk, Hynix and then Samsung and of course those are now AI plays. This is kind of crazy. From Charter, South Korea overtook Canada become the world's seventh largest stock market. So South Korean stock market is now bigger than Canada and bigger than the United Kingdom. Imagine telling someone a hundred years ago, South Korea is going to have a bigger stock market than the uk. I've talked about this before. People keep saying that the US is the fall of the Roman Empire. No one ever talks about how the United Kingdom is literally the fall of the Roman Empire. They were like the modern Roman Empire and their stock market is now smaller than South Korea, a country that in the 1950s was destroyed and split into two. How could you ever possibly explain that to someone? 75 or 100 years ago, they wouldn't have believed you.

[Michael Batnick]

Exciting times we live in. Nobody knows where this is going, but.

[Ben Carlson]

And this is another. This is another. So emerging markets are going crazy this year. Mark Zuccardi says they're up 23% in the last six weeks. Best rally in 17 years.

[Michael Batnick]

Best rally in 17 years. Because emerging markets went from like an energy index into a technology index.

[Ben Carlson]

But isn't this one of those things where you finally go, oh, this is. I think it's good to see some of these companies overseas taking part in this boom. Yeah, right. Taiwan semiconductor and South Korean stocks and emerging markets finally going nuts. Like, it's good to see that it's not just the US Anymore, because I do think that's going to be one of the things we see with AI. That's my prediction.

[Michael Batnick]

What's that?

[Ben Carlson]

The Internet didn't really, like Tom Friedman. Internet flattened the world or whatever. Right. But the US Was still kind of the winner. I really do think AI is going to, like, absolutely bring in globalization even more. From a knowledge, talent, business perspective. I think this is going to be the thing that does it.

[Michael Batnick]

Financial advisors. I had a podcast on Talking wealth with Michael Kitsis where we discussed the future of AI in our industry. And I think that, I mean, you could spend four hours on this conversation. We are going to be dealing with a much more engaged and educated consumer, which is great for everyone. Well, it's, it's not good for, for bad advisors. If you've, you know, if you've been asleep at the wheel doing the bare minimum, that's not good. But an educated customer makes for a better customer. Similar to my H Vac story. And I am, I am so excited for our future, for our industry. This is, It's. Yeah, these are exciting times.

[Ben Carlson]

That's a must. Listen podcast or video is very good. Check out our Talking Wealth YouTube channel. Here's my thinking. I think the 2000s is the most disruption that financial advisors have ever had in their history.

[Michael Batnick]

And I don't think. I, I don't think, I don't think that people are ready for it.

[Ben Carlson]

But think about it. Think about what we did in 2020. We leveled the playing field in terms of when zoom calls, when people became okay to do zoom calls. I know there's still people who say, I'm only going to go to the financial advisor who lives in my town. There's some people who still do that. But it flattened everything in terms of communication. People are now accepting of video calls and taking A service from someone who doesn't live in the same city they're in, that happened overnight. Now AI is going to come and you're right. If, if you don't have the knowledge base like and the ability to deal with a more knowledgeable client or prospect

[Michael Batnick]

10 years ago, you're done. We were explaining what a fiduciary was the difference between us and a wirehouse. Now the customer comes to us so much more educated, which is great for both sides. A friend of mine who's an advisor yesterday texted me about this. So watching you and Michael right now and fun story. I literally had a conversation like this last week. The client ended up staying with me instead of going somewhere else in part because everything I told them was closer to what Claude said than the other guys did.

[Ben Carlson]

Wow. It's interesting. So, all right, so Gungeon at the Wall Street Journal. This is a great story. I asked Chad TPT to manage a stock portfolio. Here's how it did. So she said. She gave these prompts, your future financial advisor. Managing my long term portfolio. Here's my age range, my goals is growth, my time horizon is long term. My risk tolerance is kind of middle ground. It's a million dollar portfolio, taxable account. Have at it. And I mean it's not the worst. The portfolio is fine, right?

[Michael Batnick]

Totally fine. It looks like a robo advisor. It's totally fine.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, it looks like a robo advisor. I'm sure they stole a lot from it now in the article like you could poke some holes in it like hey, there's too much cash.

[Michael Batnick]

It's a, it's fine. It's better than yes, totally good.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, you could quibble with it but obviously if you get this as the output, you say no, no, no, I don't want that. That's way too much of this. Change this, change that. But this is just, it's just, it's just further taking us down the line of certain things being commoditized. Like the simple asset allocation is a commodity. Like there's advisors are going to have to find a way to stand out and that's why I think. So you had guys had Eric Bis on the Compounded Friends last week which was very good in his point of like active ETFs kind of taking back their corner a little bit. This is why I think I would be bullish on active ETFs going forward.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, let's give, let's give ourselves a plug. We don't do that a ton on this show, but we are so we spent the last. When did we start working on Porterhouse in the winter?

[Ben Carlson]

Been a while.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, I can't remember. So we started working on an in house momentum strategy for Red Health wealth clients only. And the, the premise was based on Josh and Sean do a best stocks list on cnbc. They've been doing it for a while now. And it's one thing to have a list of stocks like a screen where it's like, all right, I want to own. Basically the premise is I want to own good, I want to own great stocks. I want to own the best stocks, the stocks that are working today. And I also want them to be good companies so that when the tide goes out they don't fall 80%. Right. Because there's a lot of shitty stocks. There's a lot of shitty companies that make for good stocks in any given moment. We didn't know how to turn a list into a portfolio. We tried like, but we're not, we're not quants. It's not our, that's not our portfolio

[Ben Carlson]

management versus a buy list is a, there's a huge leap.

[Michael Batnick]

So we've, we've used Momentum ETFs and, and, and, and versions of that for, for a decade plus I think. But we've never like done it in house. So we partnered with Franklin Templeton and we built a momentum strategy that is launching, launching in June for Red Hotel wealth clients only. We've been invested in it, Ben and I, since January and we've been, you know, working through some of the kinks and stuff. Momentum just went on a historic run. So I wish we were able to get people invested earlier. But anyway, this is a plug. Obviously we are, we will have a link in the show notes if you want to reach out to us and learn more about what we're doing there.

[Ben Carlson]

But I think that the AI point of this story is that turning those rules and those ideas into an actual portfolio strategy that is, you know, in terms of the trading and the turnover and there's a ton of decisions you have to make and I think you could put together a back test that looks awesome. And it's not a real world portfolio you have to take. There's real world considerations you have to do when making a rules based portfolio like this and it's more concentrated. And one of the reasons that I like the strategy for me personally, remember I said a million times, I'm giving up on stock picking, this is a strategy that will own stocks that I would never in a million years be able to force myself to own at the time. In a momentum strategy like this, it's rules based. That's why I like it, because it takes me out of the equation. I would not buy these stocks on my own.

[Michael Batnick]

I shared this, I shared this with our advisors yesterday. One of the stocks we own. Again, this is an incredible environment for moment for momentum. The strategy might not ever have a better period that it's had. The first six months, five months of the year we own a stock, doesn't matter which stock. A stock that I would ever buy that is at $2,500 a share. And I said to the advisors, I would have bought this at a thousand and sold it at 1200. And that's the point of having a rules based strategy. And I said, actually, you know what? I wouldn't have bought at a thousand because the Stock was at 500 like not even a year prior. And one of the great things and last thing about and then we'll move on. One of the great things that we're so proud of and excited about this strategy is most momentum strategies that are in the market are fully invested at all times. And so in like a bear market, it'll be relative momentum. So which stocks are doing the best versus the crashing index or the bear market index. So it can own a lot of staples and like boring names. Not the strategy. If there are no stocks that meet the criteria of what we're trying to do here, which is own the best stocks that are good businesses, if none of those exist because every mark, because it's just a washout, eventually the buy list will shrink to zero and we won't own stocks.

[Ben Carlson]

You know who that reminded me of when we initially put these rules in is that's how John Borman used to run money. If there was no stocks going up, he would, he would go to cash. Remember him?

[Michael Batnick]

Of course I remember him. Great.

[Ben Carlson]

Rest in peace. Yeah, but no, but that, that's how I, I loved his discipline was if there's no stocks that meet my criteria, I'm not going to buy any anyway. Yes. Interesting strategy. Something that in my book I write a lot about the benefits of being rules based and making good decisions ahead of time and doing all the hard work ahead of time. We put in, I don't know, six, eight months on this strategy before implementing it. Because we wanted the rules to make sense. And you do the heavy lifting up front so you don't have to do it in the moment. That's to me, that's how I become

[Michael Batnick]

a successful Investor because this strategy, the momentum one and everything else will have periods where it absolutely sucks shit. And you have to know it in advance what that environment looks like and you just eat it. Because everything, everything is seasonal risk of reward. Am I right, Ben?

[Ben Carlson]

That's true. All right, Greg. It's funny because we have an artificial intelligence header in our dock. Our doc has all the different headers, 20 different headers or something that topics we're talking about. And we have one that's artificial intelligence. And now AI is in every, under every heading it seems like. Anyway, Greg EP says AI is distorting practically everything about the economy. It makes growth look better and the job market look worse. Maybe an AI investment bust wouldn't hurt so much after all. This isn't, this is like a contrarian

[Michael Batnick]

take an AI bus would hurt so much after all.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, so here's, here's his. I, I don't necessarily agree with this, but I think it's worth considering. So he says the hyperscalers according to Morgan Stanley are going to spend 800 billion this year. 1.1 trillion next year. At 3.3% of gross domestic product. Next year's figure would exceed projected spending on national defense. It is funny because that sounds super duper high, but it's like that's 3.3% but that obviously that's still in the grand scheme.

[Michael Batnick]

I don't.

[Ben Carlson]

So he, he shows, look at the chart here. That shows AI Capex versus defense spending. It shows next year. Yes. It's going to pass it. So here's, here's, here's why he thinks this wouldn't be the worst thing if it rolled over. And I, I totally disagree with this. Like if AI rolls over, there's probably going to be recession. I would.

[Michael Batnick]

The most recent action in the stock market has definitely brought me over to the side of Josh's wealth effect. Now, I am not like an on off wealth effect guy. I think there are periods of time where the market really doesn't lead to a lot of spending activity.

[Ben Carlson]

But I think now 2010s was one where the wealth effect didn't really have an impact. I'd say, yeah, 2000s. Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

So, but especially in recent times, there is so much wealth in the stock market. People are borrowing against their portfolios. People are spending money. And I'm not saying that's good, bad or going to last forever, but I'm just saying today it is definitely driving the way that people make decisions with their spending habits.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, I've got a Great story about borrowing answer portfolio coming up later. All right, so he says overall US growth would slow if the AI stuff turned down. Right. But less than you think. Just 33 counties account for 72% of data centers. So it can. Construction drought wouldn't ripple that widely. Stocks and profits would fall, but the average worker who depends more on wages and wealth would barely be affected.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, well, that's true.

[Ben Carlson]

And the mood might improve. Bosses, stop talking about.

[Michael Batnick]

That's true. The average worker would probably be relatively unimpacted unless there were a recession.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, that's, that's a problem. I. There's no guarantees, there's no always and there's no never. I would put the odds of a recession in 90 plus percent if, if the AI spending rolled over that I put it very high.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, let me just, just. So we're defining this. When you say roll over, do you mean like roll over to like 80% of current spending or like.

[Ben Carlson]

No, like if it was a big pullback, like, all right, this isn't working. We're pulling back. And I don't know how to define that, but I think it's one of those things where, like pornography, you know when you see it. Remember that thing?

[Michael Batnick]

I do.

[Ben Carlson]

That's all right.

[Michael Batnick]

I agree with you.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't think it would be a soft landing if all of a sudden there was a huge pullback in AI spending.

[Michael Batnick]

I don't know why I put this in this part of the dock. Oh, this is under the economy. Oh, there we go. Okay, that's why. So on the Disney call last week, we haven't seen any change in consumer behavior from elevated gas prices thus far and aren't currently seeing a material impact on the remainder of the fiscal year. Based on forward bookings, Disney World bookings are pacing up strongly. And Even with our 40% increase in cruise capacity, book occupancy remains in line with the prior year.

[Ben Carlson]

Disney's the one company, like you always say, listen to the earnings calls. Disney's the one company where you'd listen to the earnings calls and go, this stock must be on fire. True, right?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. But I think I, I like to listen to the calls more in terms of like, what's really happening with the economy.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, I agree.

[Michael Batnick]

As opposed to reading the headlines, we talk a lot about the, the K shaped economy. And let me be clear, it is absolutely K shaped. I don't know if it's like an even K, but even if it's, I think the upper K is like a lot bigger than the Lower part of the K. And my point is, we act like it's only rich people and everybody else. Disney is like everybody else in the upper. I don't know, upper 60%, 50%, whatever it is. Disney's extremely expensive.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

And it's not just for the top 1%. Somehow, some way, there are a lot of people going to Disney.

[Ben Carlson]

I agree. There definitely is the top 1% there.

[Michael Batnick]

And they.

[Ben Carlson]

They cut the lines and they use the passes and they. They pay for the guides and stuff. But it's Disney. If you look at the people there, it's a wide range of people. It's a wide segmentation of the population. It's not just one subset. It's not just the top 10% that go to Disney.

[Michael Batnick]

All right. Josh shared with us an article on artificial intelligence from Bailey Gifford. I'm gonna read two parts of it. This was, in my opinion, the best thing, I think, that I've seen on what AI is going to do to our brains, the way that we process information, the way that impacts society as a whole. Did you read this?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, some. It. It was. It was the piece come out a couple months ago.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, did it? I missed it.

[Ben Carlson]

Someone shared it on social media last week. Maybe Jesse Livermore or something. Because I read it, too. Very good.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, so here we go. This is already breaking the apprenticeship model that has transmitted professional expertise for millennia. Junior lawyers, accountants, and doctors have traditionally built competence by doing grunt work under the supervision of senior practitioners. The work was tedious, but the learning was real. You develop judgment by doing the thing badly at first with someone more experienced correcting you. If AI handles the grunt work instead, the learning pathway disappears. This is not hypothetical. Shopify's chief executive recently told his teams that before requesting additional headcount, they must first demonstrate why AI cannot do the work. From an investor's perspective, the logic is sound. It drives efficiency, widens margins, and makes the companies leaner. I own Shopify Shares. I understand the rationale. But every role that AI absorbs is one that a junior employee would have once learned by doing. The efficiency gain and the training loss are the same decision viewed from different angles. That's such a good line. The efficiency gain and the training loss are the same decision viewed from different angles. Then the consequences for white collar professionals are already visible. Entry level hiring at major technology companies has fallen more than 50% below pre pandemic levels. Generative AI doesn't eliminate entire occupations overnight. Instead, it hollows them out from within, automating 30 or 40% of an employee's workload, leaving fewer entry level roles and compressing opportunities for career progression. The result is organizations that get more done with fewer people today, but have fewer ways to train the people they will need tomorrow. This creates a widening gap not just between companies, but within them, between a shrinking cadre of AI fluent senior professionals and a growing population of graduates who cannot get a foot on the ladder that those seniors once climbed.

[Ben Carlson]

This is why I think that I don't know how long it's going to be. Three years, five years, 10 years. There's going to be an overreaction the other way and people going why did we, why are we so shortsighted? And we didn't train people and we didn't hire people that, that we saved some money in the short term, sure, but it hurt us in the long term.

[Michael Batnick]

Well this is where, this is the other side of the pendulum. I'll quote them one more time. AI will most likely produce three trajectories for those without pre existing expertise. Some will build careers around orchestrating AI itself, though the evidence suggested that their work will be more fragile than they realize. Others are already moving into physical trades and care and care work where human presence still matters. The rest will be caught in the gap. Too late to build traditional expertise, too early to benefit from whatever new institutional structures eventually emerge. And this is the point. The last group, this last group is most politically consequential because historically large populations of educated but unemployed young people are among the most reliable predictors of social instability. And there's no doubt about it, no doubt in my mind that this is the path that we're on. And it's obviously not all good, it's obviously not all bad. There's great parts of it, there's bad parts of it, but this particular bad part of it is not going to be good.

[Ben Carlson]

We talk to a lot of young people and hear a lot of the young voices and we have some conversations internally about man at this age, how are they so jaded already? How are they so pessimistic and cynical and like at that age they should be wide eyed and optimistic. And the thing is I actually understand why they are like they are, why they're so cynical, why they see what they not only see what's happening with like the housing market, but they see what's coming with AI and so they this like financial nihilism and just like what's the point? I understand where that comes from same, but it's also, it's very depressing. So when I Came up, my very first job. I had education, but I had no, I knew nothing. And my boss said, listen, you're gonna work as an analyst for us for two to three years.

[Michael Batnick]

How did you get your, how did you get your first job?

[Ben Carlson]

It was kind of like my resume got passed around and passed around and passed around and landed on the right lap, you know, And I looked for a small company. And here's the thing, my job doesn't exist today. I was literally a performance analyst. I would go, I would get the statements every month and, and I would calculate. We had a model on build on Lotus 1, 2, 3. And I would calculate the performance, I put input the numbers. And the thing is those two or three years, I still use that to this day. My boss, every Friday, he'd bring us on a whiteboard and teach us something about asset allocation or investment guidelines. But understanding how performance worked and getting to know, like, the range of returns for stocks versus bonds and how cash performs, like that stuff, learning that by hand for me was so helpful and helped me understand how markets actually functioned. And if you take that away from people, right, it was so, such a great learning experience for me. Again, I still use, like, I'm so fluent on Excel and stuff today, and calculating returns and doing charts because I went through that period of training. If you take that training away, I don't, I mean,

[Michael Batnick]

it is, it is being taken away.

[Ben Carlson]

So you're going to have to learn on your own now. That's the thing. Learn. It's. It's up to you to learn if no one's going to train you.

[Michael Batnick]

I would encourage people to read this article because they talk about the physio physiology of the brain and what happens when you outsource your thinking. Like, the actual chemical balance of. What happens is.

[Ben Carlson]

He talked about how 200 years ago, what is it, 12% of the people, world's adults could read. Today it's 87%. He's like, listen, when we acquired literacy, it rewired our brains. AI is going to do the same thing in a different way.

[Michael Batnick]

And I mean, they were like looking at the brain with like, like science. Like, not like, not like, oh, with words like, oh, your brain was rewired. No, no, no. Literally your brain matter changed. All right, so the CFO of Uber, on their call. Just staying with this depressing topic. I would say candidly, when we set up budgets for 2026 in November, we underestimated the, the amount of impact the AI tools could have. And as Dar said, we are trading that off against incremental head count. It's scary.

[Ben Carlson]

If I was a politician, I would be jacking up any tax rates. The robots, I would say we're going to, we're going to lower taxes for you, the citizen. We're going to take the shit out of these robots and AI companies.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, we're going to.

[Ben Carlson]

That's, we're going to take all of their wealth. Sorry. Yeah, we appreciate it. We're going to take a lot of this.

[Michael Batnick]

All right. You have a story about Chipotle customer serviceman.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yes. So weekends are full, you said last week you talked about how busy you are with kids this weekend. You know, every weekend it seems we had five. My daughter had three basketball games in a tournament straight into a soccer game. And my other daughter had a soccer game too. So five games in one day on Saturday. So my daughter's saying, listen, we're gonna be busy. We want, like, some protein, so get us Chipotle for lunch before our games. Okay? So I ordered Chipotle. I go there, and we got it early. Cause they, their game started early. So I got to Chipotle, like 11:15, and they're like. And all these people are waiting. They go, hey, anyone? And I can see all. Everything's empty. There's no food out yet. You know, like, we opened late. Nothing's ready. If you're here for an pickup order, it's not going to be ready. Sorry. All right. Can you cancel my order? No, we can't cancel it. You did it online. All right, fine. Whatever. See you later. So I left. Then we get to dinner. My daughter, after their games are done, they say, actually, we want Chipotle now. We, we want. I still want it. We didn't get it. So I ordered again. This time I did doordash because we just got home. I didn't want to go back again. And they. Doordash brings our Chipotle. Guess what? They brought our order from the morning that had been literally sitting out since 11:30am they must have made it after I left. But they didn't pick up my new order. They picked up my old order. So all the food was. Been sitting out for, for six hours or something.

[Michael Batnick]

And of course, you just heated up in the microwave and didn't say anything to anybody.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, no, I, I, yeah, no, I, I, it was hard. I probably would have done it if my wife wasn't there, let's be honest. But she's like, no, throw it away. Plus, I'm like. So I thought, like, I deserve A refund for this, but I don't want to go through the process of, like, calling a number and getting a refund. But then I went on their website And I asked ChatGPT, like, how do I get a refund from these orders I didn't get? And they said, oh, go to chipotle.com, they have an AI agent.

[Michael Batnick]

Did it work?

[Ben Carlson]

I typed it in. I said, what happened? And they said, is this the order you're talking about? And they brought it up. I said, yes, give me a refund. What happened? This is what happened. Here you go. Here's a refund. It happened in 30 seconds.

[Michael Batnick]

Very cool.

[Ben Carlson]

It was like my first good experience with the AI customer service agent. How about.

[Michael Batnick]

So I've been complaining about Voice with Apple. Apparently, I don't enunciate my words. Ben. Eric Newcomer. There was a post he wrote. Customer support and dictation loom large as voice startup leaders prepare for a world of talking machines. So this is, this is inevitable. Obviously, this is gonna be great for everybody, I assume, except for the people whose jobs it takes. And I'm not saying that flippantly. That's obviously not great for them. All right, there's a company called Sierra. They just raised $950 million at a $16 billion valuation. Holy shit. Sierra's agents are widespread enough that they, they've already talked to each other on the phone. I, I, I'm not familiar with this company. I assume we will be shortly. But then they also spoke about Whisper Flow, a company that I, an app that I am now using on my phone, sort of. His company takes great care in turning your stream of consciousness into correctly punctuated pros. What Whisper does is, as you're using it the first five, six times, it learns your common patterns. That really small detail is what adds to the delight. So Ramp actually recently found that Whisper Flow is the third fastest growing software vendor. How about that? Okay, so I was complaining that it's kind of annoying because Apple won't let you just. You know how Apple has a microphone icon? When you hit the Whisper icon, it takes you out of the app. It takes you into the Whisper app, which then takes you back in. And it's mildly irritating.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, it's like watching sports on a streaming tv. Like, it's harder.

[Michael Batnick]

It's mildly irritating. So I've got a bone to pick with Apple, Ben. And it's not just because of Whisper Flow. I have two bones, and one bone is bigger than the other. So, as you know, my beloved Knicks are doing quite well. And I am on multiple threads with Knicks fans. Perhaps this exists already, but it would be great if I were able to send messages to multiple groups in a more efficient manner as opposed to copying and pasting. Copying and pasting. Copying and pasting. Right.

[Ben Carlson]

That could get you in trouble, though.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, if you're. I mean, if you're drinking, it could get you into trouble. But I want to be able to set up groups.

[Ben Carlson]

Like just saying the wrong thing to two groups at once and one person's in the group and you didn't know. Like that sounds reasonable.

[Michael Batnick]

I'm pretty good. I'm pretty good with texts. All right, So I would like that feature. If I could request that feature if. If Tim Apple is listening. Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

I just want to say that the. The Knicks are going to the finals.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't want to. I don't want to jinx you, but there's no way the Cavs or Pistons are beating them. The Pistons are.

[Michael Batnick]

I'm not an overconfident fan.

[Ben Carlson]

No.

[Michael Batnick]

Neither of the way.

[Ben Carlson]

The Knicks.

[Michael Batnick]

Neither of those teams have the guys. Not that anybody wants to hear me talk about the Knicks or the. Or the Pistons. But the Pistons second and third scorers are Tobias Harris and Duncan Robinson.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't know how they won so many games. They have. They have one star player and the rest of their team is all role players. I don't know how they got so far.

[Michael Batnick]

And they have no bench. And the Cavs. The Cavs are the Cavs. We don't need to get to the. That. Okay. The other. So, Tim Apple, as a parting gift to. To your billion plus users, please. But here's the. Here's the real thing that I implore you to consider strongly. We had a spring flag football group chat. Guess what, Ben? Spring flag football is over. In fact, it ended a month ago. This is a lively group. There are lots of dings. I tried to mute the conversation. I. It's still dinging. It just app. You know, for whatever reason, this particular conversation, it won't mute itself. And it's a lively bunch. It's a great.

[Ben Carlson]

Why are these parents still talking to each other after the football season's over?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. Nice people. Okay. Nothing. Nothing wrong with people. Not like. Right. Besides people. But I've been saying to Robin for weeks and weeks, I got to leave. I got to get out of here. Why is this. Why are these people still making jokes? The season ended six weeks ago. It's enough.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm not good in group tech situations. My Wife's all like, will you respond, please? I'm like, no, I don't want to respond.

[Michael Batnick]

I didn't ask to be added. A group was created with, like, 25 plus people on it. So I knew that when you leave, it says, the number has left. Can I Irish. I want to Irish exit a conversation.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, I agree.

[Michael Batnick]

Why do you need to force. Why do you need to embarrass somebody now? I thought I was being a hero. I thought, listen, well, if I go first, it will give other people permission who are afraid to leave. We can all leave. It's over. The party has ended. Let's all go home. But, yeah, why can't I. Why can't I just leave this to be a n. Now I have to get embarrassed. And now. Now the group is like, oh, oh. Michael left, and now Robin's still there and she's embarrassed. Come on.

[Ben Carlson]

That's true. Yes. A, a. A subtle leave. I agree. Just leave.

[Michael Batnick]

I wasn't. I didn't ask to be added to the group. So in other words, if people just add your number to a group chat and you. And you want to leave, you get shamed.

[Ben Carlson]

I think it's a great. If you leave a group chat, it's a great flex. Like, oh, oh, okay. I see how you're wrong.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. But, I mean, I'm not the most friendly guy to begin with. I think people probably think I'm a jerk.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

So Scott Galloway and Elson do this great thing. I don't know if it's new. It's new to me. Where they have a bunch of topics where they go back and forth and they each give their own take and like a paragraph. I like it. It's a good format.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. It's a good newsletter. By the way, quick plug. I was on Prof. G. Podcast last week. Oh, hell yeah, Ed.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

And then Ramit.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

Talking about actually the 500, 000 paycheck to paycheck. Because if we talk about this show, Good conversation.

[Michael Batnick]

So this. This particular format's like PTI in a. In a blog. I like it, so.

[Ben Carlson]

I like it too.

[Michael Batnick]

I was dead wrong on this. I think I. I not. I think I severely underestimated the scale of GLP1s of their impact on chocolate and. And alcohol. Like, it's. It's a real thing. Shares of the world's top listed beer, wine, and spirits makers have shed more than $830 billion since 2021.

[Ben Carlson]

Dang.

[Michael Batnick]

The outlook for booze companies doesn't look promising. According to a study of 14,000 Weight Watchers members, roughly 50.

[Ben Carlson]

There's another company that's going under Weight Watchers. What do you need Weight Watchers for when you have ozempic?

[Michael Batnick]

Roughly 50% of patients who drink alcohol prior to starting a GLP1 decrease their alcohol consumption after starting the drug. Unbelievable stuff. Speaking of weight loss, Ben, I'm sure

[Ben Carlson]

you have people in your life who've taken us. Epic. Or people that, you know, like the. It's. It. The weirdest thing about it is you can tell when someone has taken it. Not like, because of the weight loss. Like there's some. Something about it in the face. I don't know what it is that you can tell that someone's done it.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, it's the weight loss.

[Ben Carlson]

No, but like, it looks different than they would have if they would have just lost the weight on their own.

[Michael Batnick]

Because it's like. Because it's radical weight loss. Yes. Yeah, it's. It's one thing to lose eight pounds. It's another thing to lose 27. So, yeah, I thought about it. Like I always say. Thought about. I didn't, like, really deliberate. I was like, should I just take one of these things? Because my, my, I. Look at my belly. It's not great.

[Ben Carlson]

Keep doing. If you do it though, keep doing the planks because you lose muscle. So keep those planks.

[Michael Batnick]

I'm planking my ass off. And I got. I wasn't gonna do this, Ben, but this is my last. My last purchase for push ups. This. This thing is money, Ben.

[Ben Carlson]

What is it?

[Michael Batnick]

It's.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, different push up.

[Michael Batnick]

Because you know what? I swear to God, my wrist started to hurt by doing push ups on the floor. But this, you could target multiple areas of your.

[Ben Carlson]

So you. You pick them.

[Michael Batnick]

But look, you could like pop it out and pop it in. All right. Anyway. But you know what I did? I did, I did so peloton. See, you know how I used to use a trainer?

[Ben Carlson]

You have the weakest arms of any person ever. You can't do planks and you can't do push ups.

[Michael Batnick]

I could. No bones. Weakest bones. My bones are brittle. But I did. I did a. A peloton workout class. I don't need a trainer. I could just. I could just do peloton.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, that's true. So you still. Yeah, you can. You can just do lifting and other stuff through peloton, right?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, that's a good idea. So.

[Ben Carlson]

So all this time because. Yeah, but you probably use your peloton bike in what, four years?

[Michael Batnick]

Four years. So The. So you still.

[Ben Carlson]

You still be paying every month for

[Michael Batnick]

the membership still, though, I suppose when you. When you see me in. In a year and you say, hey, Michael, looks different. It's not oic. I've just been hitting the.

[Ben Carlson]

Duncan. Duncan says if we don't get a fitness sponsorship out of this, I don't know what. What else. But so obviously you're on Instagram again, because you're buying all this junk you don't need.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, you know what? Instagram. Well, Instagram is very hard to live without for me because I'm posting a lot of our socials there. I love it. So here's what I. Here's my. My new thing, this brick thing. I have two of these, one at home and one on the road, one in my backpack. So if I brick my stuff, lock all my apps, which I always do, that's my default, and I forget to brick it to unbrick it, and I'm out. That's it. I just.

[Ben Carlson]

I've never seen that before. So that thing actually blocks the apps that you can't use them.

[Michael Batnick]

My apps are blocked. I cannot access them.

[Ben Carlson]

Now, that is a. If that's not a thing about behavioral psychology, I don't know what is.

[Michael Batnick]

It's. It works. I literally. I need this because I can't.

[Ben Carlson]

So listen to that. Listen to this.

[Michael Batnick]

Hold on, hold on. My. My, My. What is this? I. I have been unbricking to go on Instagram to post, but my shopping is going to crash because I'm not really on it the way that I used to be. I'm. I'm on it. And then I brick it. I post, and then I.

[Ben Carlson]

This. This one is the worst. This thing. That's the. That's the worst. So you having to brick your thing. So you've seen my. My neighborhood, right? It's a little cul de sac, is 20 houses. It's not big, but. And there's like a 15 speed limit. And there's tons of little kids who play in the street all the time. And there's probably five or six teenagers on the block now that I'll drive. And they drive like maniacs. I'm the old guy.

[Michael Batnick]

Yellow road. Come on, you got to yell.

[Ben Carlson]

They drive so fast. So they finally had a homeowners association meeting. I wasn't there. And they said, hey, sorry, we're putting in speed bumps.

[Michael Batnick]

You have to.

[Ben Carlson]

And I'm like, oh. I'm like, I don't. Speed ups are so annoying. But guess what?

[Michael Batnick]

You have to.

[Ben Carlson]

It's the only thing that. You know what I saw, though, the teenagers drive by. They fly over the speed bumps. They don't stop. They just like, they're gonna wreck their cars because they don't slow down. They just drive over them as fast as they can. But that sometimes you need the speed bumps, you need the brick to stop your behavior. All right, I gotta. I gotta.

[Michael Batnick]

I can't. Dude, I was. I was waking up. Oh, here's another thing. So my bedroom, the people that built the house that I bought. There is so much sunlight in my bedroom, Ben, from both sides, both the front and the back. Because there's windows in the front and there's doors. Windows in the back, and there's curtains in front of the doors. But then on top of the doors is a, like, half cylinder, I suppose, window.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

And the sunlight just. Just shines through in the morning. And the sun rises at, I don't know, 5, 50 or so, whatever. Some freaking up at 6 o' clock every morning because the sun is blasting me. And I was spending 45 minutes on Instagram, Hence the brick. I need. I can't help it, okay? But you know what else I did? Because of this damn sunlight bend, I got a sleep mask.

[Ben Carlson]

I can see that.

[Michael Batnick]

I don't know what else to do. I would like to wake up naturally without the sun just blasting me in the face, but. You ever sleep with a sleep mask? I'm guessing not. Who sleeps with a sleep mask? Who the hell sleeps with a sleep mask?

[Ben Carlson]

I can see that for you. All right, I've got a soccer dad update on crypto. I mentioned this, like, a year ago. Some of the soccer dads.

[Michael Batnick]

Did you say soccer dad update on crypto?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. So probably about a year ago, some of the soccer dads approached me on the sidelines, said, hey, Ben, get in this bitcoin conversation. I said, oh, boy. And these guys are like, one of the guys, one of the dads was an evangelist, and he brought the other guy in, and the guy said, listen, we were having old fashions last night, and he talked me into buying bitcoin. So at the game this weekend, they said, all right, Ben, we've got an update on crypto. And they kind of had a sheepish grin on their face, like, oh, you know, like when your kid does something wrong and they don't want to tell you. I'm like, all right. They're like, you kind into bitcoin? A little bit? Yeah, I own some. I told him I sold half of it when I hit 100. And I like, oh, cool. They're like, here's what we did when it was at 100, we went to our crypto brokerage and we borrowed it. We borrowed against it. And I said, okay, what are you borrowing at? They said, 6 or 7%. I said, that's not terrible. I guess it's like a margin loan. Okay, so. So we borrow against it. But they said, the. But the crypto brokerage won't let us then take that margin and buy more crypto. So we took the money off the platform.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, no.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I said, I said, that's. That's smart. Okay. And I'm not going to name the crypto exchange. They said. And they said, but what we did is, is we put the borrowed money into one of the MicroStrategy call option ETFs, thinking this is free money. And guess what? It's not free money. This, this strategy has crashed. So for the past six months, we've been having to feed more and more money into our brokerage account. For crypto to cover the margin, it has to be because the margin, I guess the rules were higher than I thought. I don't know, 80%. It's. It's a very high number that they have to keep. So they said for the past year, we've just been funneling all of our money to keep this margin up. And luckily crypto has come back a little bit.

[Michael Batnick]

Were they laughing about it? Like, was it? I hope.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

They were laughing like, I can't believe we did this. Like, what were we thinking?

[Michael Batnick]

You know? You know what? Everybody goes through this. Everybody does something stupid with investing. God knows I've had my more than my fair share. And you gotta pay the piper. It's the only way to learn. But at least, at least it sounds like it wasn't catastrophic.

[Ben Carlson]

No, and they were. And I think one of the guys was probably into it more than the other because one of the guys just kind of followed the other guy's lead. But yes, there. Anyway, it was.

[Michael Batnick]

I skipped over this data point back to the GLP1 stuff. This is a face blower. Ben never would have guessed this. 5.8% of Americans, at least according to Gallup. I don't know if this is 100 accurate, but whatever. 5.8% of Americans in the first quarter of 2024 were using a GLP1, and now it's 12.4%. And that's actually, that's actually all that's actually as a year ago, I kind of believe that it's sort of in the ballpark.

[Ben Carlson]

And also that number will never be lower than it is today.

[Michael Batnick]

Correct.

[Ben Carlson]

The New York Times did something on longevity, which I think is interesting. So it said a longer life can lead to financial security, financial concerns. And they talk about like the, the pros and cons obviously of living a longer life. And it says like, outliving your savings is becoming more and more pronounced for a lot of people. So you take a 65 year old couple, there's a 64% chance, so 2 third chance or so that at least one partner will live beyond 90. So we always talk about why people don't want to spend down their money. Like why don't people just do it? Like, this is one of the reasons people are freaked out and terrified they're going to outlive their money. This is also interesting from the Wall Street Journal. They the great wealth transfer that we've been talking about forever. Right. Baby boomer money has to come down at some point. It's going to be passed down. So look at all the money they have. And they look at like when those inheritances will happen by generation, they're showing like the amount per and it'll be Gen X at first, obviously, and then that rolls over. But most of these inheritances aren't going to happen, especially for millennials, until like the bulk of it, until, I don't know, the 2000 and 30s and possibly into the 2000 and 40s, like if your parents are living longer again. We've talked about this. We, we know people, everyone knows someone, a millennial, who their retirement plan is. My rich parents are going to give me their money.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Like, we know those people.

[Michael Batnick]

And it's, it's gonna be, it's. Listen, I'm not mad at anyone. This is life. But it's, it's just, it's gonna be, I don't know, funny is right or, but odd or whatever when people's parents die and they just like immediately like 10x their life.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. Or I know people now who live beyond their means and don't save anything because they know that, that it's, it's coming.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. Which guess what? I would, I would too. That's normal.

[Ben Carlson]

But the thing is, if people are living long, like you, the planning for this, threading the needle. Oh, what if you don't get the money until you're 65?

[Michael Batnick]

Right, right, right.

[Ben Carlson]

Well, that's when it could happen for a lot of people. That's, that's the point. Like the wealth transfer is Not. And also, also, I think there's.

[Michael Batnick]

There's a ton of people and everybody who's around our age can. Can like. Yeah, of course. We all know people like this whose parents just subsidize a ton of their lifestyle, whether it's the kids camps or whatever, Right?

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah, definitely. So I. The other thing is that no one ever brings up when they talk about the wealth transfer. So I was on Melissa Joy's podcast. She's a fellow fly overtape person. She has this women's money wisdom. And we talk about women and money a little bit and about my book, but she talked about. We talked about how the first wealth transfer is not going to be to the kids. It's going to be from. Mostly if it's. It's a man and woman married together, it's the husband dying first and the woman living five or 10 years longer and them getting the money. That's going to be the first wealth transfer is. Women are going to control so much more of the money, and the financial industry is not prepared for that.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

For women having control over the bulk of the assets, that's going to happen because women live longer than men. Anyway.

[Michael Batnick]

I saw. Oh, I saw Sean posted this. I. I didn't confirm the accuracy. Our guy Sean posted or slacked to us that they're filming Ghost in. In. In Queens, where he lives.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, Channing Tatum is going to play the role. You can't do.

[Michael Batnick]

I. This cannot happen. No. That does not need to be remade. It just doesn't. That is a perfect movie. And it came out when it should have came out, and it aged wonderfully and just. No.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. You know, some things you shouldn't touch.

[Michael Batnick]

I don't remember the first time I saw Ghost. I was probably a baby, and I probably cried like a baby. I was probably, like, 8 years old when my mom showed me that movie. I watched a movie over the weekend, Ben, that made me cry.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

The movie is called Remarkably Bright Creatures. Are you familiar with this one? It's on Netflix.

[Ben Carlson]

I saw the title for it and. Watch it.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, I spoke about this yesterday with. With the gang.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. My. Okay. My wife asked me if I wanted to watch this.

[Michael Batnick]

Watch it.

[Ben Carlson]

Should I. Is this. Should I. I should watch it. Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, it's. It's. It's a. It's an airplane movie.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

But I. I cried, and I did not see myself crying. It was a surprise cry. I loved it.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

I'm a huge tear guy. Makes me feel good.

[Ben Carlson]

When's the last time Sally Field was in a movie, right?

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, here's a. Here's what I ask you. What's the last movie that made you cry? And I have a guess, because you're not a crier. You're not a movie crier.

[Ben Carlson]

You know what it was? Okay, what's your guess, Rudy? Now, I don't. See. The thing is, I'm a Michigan fan, so I could never cry for another day movie.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, fair enough. I suppose.

[Ben Carlson]

You know what it was? Field of Dreams.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay. Yeah, that. That.

[Ben Carlson]

It was. It was right after my brother died and I. Field of Dreams came on and he had to catch with his dad and I lost it.

[Michael Batnick]

I'm gonna cry thinking about that soon.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. I got my daughter looked at me and she's like, oh, my gosh. Okay. I've got. I have a. I have an idea for a movie production company. Okay. Here's what my movie production company is going to be called. 95 minutes or less. Okay. One of the greatest things about 80s and 90s movies is how short they were. Some movies deserve the longer treatment. There are some movies that just are better when they're two hours. You need some time. But most movies should be 95 minutes or less. That would be my. My thing. Hey, listen, if you're a director, a producer, an actor, you come to do a movie at our studio, that's fine. Here's your constraint. 95 minutes or less. That's it.

[Michael Batnick]

It's also cheaper.

[Ben Carlson]

Cheaper to do Cut all the Fat away. Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

With you.

[Ben Carlson]

So I watched Send Help on Hulu. You've seen this one with Rachel McAdams.

[Michael Batnick]

I loved it.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I thought it was really good, but it was. It was one of those movies that if. If it. I looked at it, it was like an hour and 52 minutes or something. And I thought, like, it's just a little long for this kind of movie.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

If they would have trimmed 15 minutes off of movie.

[Michael Batnick]

You're right. But you're quibbling. But also, I saw.

[Ben Carlson]

I am quibbling.

[Michael Batnick]

I saw the movie in the theater and it rocked. Hard. It was.

[Ben Carlson]

Boy. What? Just a weird, weird movie. But very, like, enjoyable. It was. It was bizarre.

[Michael Batnick]

If you don't like that movie, you don't like movies. That was a great. That was a great time.

[Ben Carlson]

My wife is usually a fall asleep on the couch kind of person. We're watching stuff and she's like, I'm staying up for this. Like, I want to see the end of this. I really want to know what happens. It was. It was very Weird, but in a. In a, I guess a delightful kind of way. All right. You talked about your friends and neighbors last week, how you still into it? I watched the most recent one. They did a funeral episode. I love. This show is so good.

[Michael Batnick]

It's too much damn time with kids, Ben. I have no time for. I have no time for TV anymore. I haven't seen past the first episode.

[Ben Carlson]

I can't believe that it's still so. I thought it would be a one season show and then it'll get bad. But they did a funeral episode that was so realistic about an actual. What an actual funeral is and how it plays out and how awkward it is in dealing with your family and people saying the wrong stuff. And they, they nailed the funeral perfectly.

[Michael Batnick]

Chris was telling me, Chris was telling

[Ben Carlson]

me such a good show.

[Michael Batnick]

He said, did you see the funeral scene yet?

[Ben Carlson]

So good. Yes. I can't believe how good this show still is.

[Michael Batnick]

You know, I agree with you. I thought it was a one and done. Isn't it weird or funny how we just like, oh yeah, we just watch. We just watch TV shows on Apple now, right?

[Ben Carlson]

It is. I know. And then you look at it and oh, there's another actor in their own TV show. Movie on Apple I never heard of. Cool.

[Michael Batnick]

I watched the drama Nate 24 movie.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I was interested in this one.

[Michael Batnick]

So the drama is by the same guy that did Dream Scenario. And the progression of the movies, in my opinion, was very similar in the sense that the. Maybe the last third wasn't. I didn't love the last third in either of the movies.

[Ben Carlson]

I never watched Dream Scenario.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, you should. At least it's worth it just for the first half. Okay, so the drama is a great premise. Robert Patterson and Zendaya are getting married and they are doing like a wine tasting with like their two best friends, you know, like prepping for the wedding in terms of like what they're gonna. What wine they're going to serve. And one of them says to the group, hey, let's play a fun game. What's the worst thing you've ever done? And they all go around and Zendaya says something and the media, the movie comes to a screeching halt where they're all like, what? Okay, and, and whatever. People might. Might not love how it ends, but whatever it was, it was, it was definitely.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, is that a theater movie for you or is that. It's on no streaming now.

[Michael Batnick]

No, it's. It's on. Did. Oh, I rented it, but it'll be. It'll be streaming soon. My type of movie. I enjoyed it.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, I'm in.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, that's it. I'm coming to New York tomorrow. I will be in town. I will be doing the Compounded Friends with you guys this week.

[Michael Batnick]

Busy week for you. So, Ben, on the component friends, we are having a. A party for our Porter House launch with the. The momentum strategy. That is for R Wealth clients only that we spoke about. That's going to be a lot of fun. A lot of people in town for that one. You've got your book. We've got.

[Ben Carlson]

This is like the busiest month of my life. And it's great. I love it. We're releasing new stuff at the firm. I got a new book out. Please go buy it. I'm gonna do some sort of giveaway on Ask the Compound, signed copies if people want to watch.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, yeah, absolutely. I'm trying to remind myself that we will be sick again, metaphorically speaking. And, you know, things are good right now.

[Ben Carlson]

So that's the, that's what I'm trying to remind people. Like the bad, the bad stuff will happen. It's. It has to pretty good. Enjoy the good times while they last.

[Michael Batnick]

That's right. All right, animal [e-mail] thank you so much for everybody, for listening, for sending emails. Thank you to Duncan and the production team. We will see you next time.

[Ben Carlson]

Sam.