Wall Street Strikes Back (EP. 424)

Summary

Animal Spirits Podcast: Wall Street Strikes Back (EP. 424) – Detailed Summary

Release Date: August 6, 2025
Hosts: Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson
Podcast Description: Animal Spirits is a show about markets, life, and investing, hosted by The Compound. New episodes drop every Wednesday morning.

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1. AI Capital Expenditures and Economic Impact

Timestamp: [06:00] - [10:44]

Michael and Ben delve into the significant rise in AI-related capital expenditures (CapEx) among major tech giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle. They reference a Financial Times report highlighting these companies' combined AI and R&D investments, which have surged from $150 billion in 2023 to an estimated $320 billion in 2025—a 40% increase for the "Mag 7", compared to a mere 4% rise for the other 493 stocks.

Michael Batnik remarks, “'This is an insane chart. Absolutely insane like history book kind of level chart here.'” ([08:12])

Ben Carlson emphasizes the potential ripple effects, questioning whether these massive investments will translate into broader productivity gains across other sectors. They discuss concerns about whether overspending could lead to a market washout similar to past technology bubbles, citing historical patterns where high expectations and excessive spending precipitated significant market corrections.

Ben Carlson states, “'My line of thinking is it's almost too easy to follow the historical playbook, isn't it?'” ([15:31])

2. Employment Data, Revisions, and Trust in the BLS

Timestamp: [28:04] - [32:23]

The conversation shifts to the latest employment statistics, highlighting a 253,000 two-month downward revision to payroll employment—the largest since at least 1979. Ben points out that despite these figures indicating a slowing economy, leading economists like Matthew Klein remain optimistic, suggesting that the slowdown represents a natural normalization rather than a crisis.

Michael underscores the skepticism surrounding economic data revisions, noting, “'There was a story in the Wall Street Journal and I keep wondering like, is this weakness actually real this time or is it just vibes again?'” ([31:51])

They discuss Andrew Cohen's defense of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), where he emphasizes the integrity and non-political nature of economic data revisions, countering critiques that the data manipulation is politically driven.

3. Consumer Spending and Potential Recession Indicators

Timestamp: [09:59] - [17:57]

Ben brings up data indicating that AI CapEx has outpaced consumer spending in contributing to GDP growth over the past year. While consumer spending remains the dominant force in the economy, the rapid increase in AI investments raises questions about the sustainability of current economic trends.

Ben Carlson questions, “'Can we have a softening economy, a weakening consumer, without a commensurate softening in the stock market?'” ([08:26])

They explore scenarios where consumer anxiety and shifting spending habits—highlighted by CEOs from companies like Chipotle, Kroger, and Procter & Gamble—could signal deeper economic concerns. The hosts ponder whether declining consumer confidence might eventually lead to a recession, despite current optimism fueled by AI investments.

4. Retail Investors and Wall Street's Resurgence

Timestamp: [22:25] - [28:31]

Highlighting a 56% increase in retail traders engaging in futures trading, Ben cites CME data showing a 5th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in this segment. This surge signifies a shift back towards active trading, countering years of passive investing trends. Michael and Ben discuss how platforms like Robinhood have democratized access to trading, leading to what they describe as "Wall Street striking back."

Ben comments, “'The retail money is not dumb money anymore. They are now the smart money.'” ([27:36])

They also touch on the resilience of platforms like Robinhood, noting significant revenue increases driven by a frothy market and heightened trading activity among retail investors.

5. Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics

Timestamp: [38:36] - [43:51]

The hosts analyze the evolving cryptocurrency landscape, emphasizing the maturation of Bitcoin as a liquid macro asset. Michael references MicroStrategy's substantial Bitcoin purchases, noting that such large-scale acquisitions have minimal impact on Bitcoin's price due to the market's increased liquidity.

Michael Batnik observes, “'This is the point that I was making about market caps. This is not a market cap. There is not a billion dollar market cap in farcoin. We are butchering market cap.'” ([39:25])

They also discuss the record influx into crypto ETFs, with July seeing $12.8 billion—the highest ever, surpassing even major ETFs like VOO. Additionally, a strategic partnership between JP Morgan Chase and Coinbase is highlighted, enabling Chase customers to directly connect bank accounts to Coinbase wallets and transfer reward points for crypto investments.

Ben adds, “'This marks the first time a major credit card rewards program will be used to fund a crypto wallet.'” ([42:51])

6. Real Estate Trends: Home Prices and Condominiums

Timestamp: [43:51] - [51:53]

Turning to the housing market, Michael and Ben discuss a Redfin report indicating that approximately half of U.S. cities are experiencing falling home prices. They explore the dynamics of supply and demand, noting a shift from buyer-heavy markets to a more balanced or seller-favorable environment. Specific attention is given to the condo market in Florida, which is facing significant price declines and increased assessments, making it a potential buying opportunity for certain investors.

Ben Carlson mentions, “'Condos are now falling in price. And they say that just the premium for condos is falling fast because they're getting all these assessments.'” ([46:03])

Michael shares a personal anecdote about selling his house swiftly due to changing tenant circumstances, illustrating how individual experiences reflect broader market trends of reduced housing inventory and persistent demand in specific regions like Texas and Florida.

7. Millennials' Net Worth and Perceptions of Wealth

Timestamp: [52:33] - [53:54]

The discussion shifts to generational wealth metrics, highlighting that as of early 2025, millennials and older Gen Z individuals have an average net worth 31% higher than baby boomers and 20% higher than Gen Xers at similar ages. This challenges prevalent narratives about millennial financial struggles, suggesting that many are financially better positioned than previous generations at comparable life stages.

Ben notes, “'Average net worth of millennials and older members of gen Z was 31% higher than baby boomers and 20% higher than gen Xers at similar ages.'” ([52:57])

They reflect on social media's role in shaping perceptions of wealth and anxiety, with some individuals expressing confidence in their financial stability despite broader economic uncertainties.

8. Streaming and Media Critique

Timestamp: [53:54] - [65:56]

Michael and Ben critique the current state of streaming content, particularly focusing on Netflix's recent offerings. They lament the perceived decline in quality and originality, suggesting that many new shows feel algorithm-driven and lack genuine engagement.

Michael shares his frustration with the "Untamed" show, which he feels appears artificially constructed, leading to disengagement during viewing. Similarly, they discuss the decline in sequel quality, using Netflix’s "Fubar" as an example where season two saw a 76% drop in viewership compared to the first season, culminating in its cancellation.

Ben humorously recounts personal challenges with maintaining patience during long wait times for orders, drawing a parallel to the frustration with formulaic and unsatisfying content creation in streaming platforms.

9. Personal Anecdotes and Light-hearted Interludes

Timestamp: [46:32] - [65:56]

Throughout the episode, Michael and Ben intersperse their analysis with personal stories, such as Michael’s experience selling his house and grappling with home inventory issues, and Ben’s tales of parenting challenges and frustrations with service delays. These anecdotes provide a relatable and humanizing contrast to their investment and economic discussions.

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Conclusion

In this episode of Animal Spirits Podcast, Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson provide a comprehensive analysis of current economic trends, emphasizing the pivotal role of AI investments in sustaining market growth amidst consumer spending slowdowns. They explore the resurgence of retail investors, the maturation of the cryptocurrency market, and evolving real estate dynamics, all while offering personal insights and critiques of contemporary media. Notable highlights include discussions on the impact of AI CapEx on GDP, trust in economic data revisions, and the generational shifts in net worth. The hosts maintain a balance between in-depth market analysis and engaging personal stories, making the episode both informative and relatable for listeners.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Carlson at [06:38]: “'We've seen some charts, but it just seemed to collectively, everyone kind of went, oh my gosh. Yeah, it really is.'”

• Michael Batnik at [21:52]: “'It was the biggest spam volume day since April's tariff tantrum.'”

• Ben Carlson at [15:31]: “'My line of thinking is it's almost too easy to follow the historical playbook, isn't it?'”

• Ben Carlson at [46:03]: “'Condos are now falling in price. And they say that just the premium for condos is falling fast because they're getting all these assessments.'”

• Michael Batnik at [38:36]: “'There is not a billion dollar market cap in farcoin. We are butchering market cap.'”

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For further insights and updates, listeners are encouraged to visit Animal Spirits Podcast and engage with the hosts through their various platforms.

Transcript

[Michael Batnik]

Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by White Charts. It's that time of the year where we talk about half Assumer went I can't believe it. You can't believe it. Let's move on. If you want to communicate with your clients about all of the crazy things that have happened in the first half of the year, why Charts has you covered in their mid year reset which is their 2025 halftime report deck.

[Ben Carlson]

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[Michael Batnik]

Earnings growth.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. So client ready visuals, talking points. Basically just to help you prep faster, communicate more clearly, more conversations with clients. We know those visuals always lead to better conversations than just talking points.

[Michael Batnik]

Facts.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. So if you want to sharpen your mid year strategy, have better conversations with clients, download the deck with the link in the show notes. And remember, if you want 20% off of that initial professional subscription, tell me Animal Spirit sent you. Check out yarts.com to learn more.

[Michael Batnik]

Today's show is brought to you by Vanguard. To all the financial advisors listening, let's talk bonds for a minute.

[Ben Carlson]

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[Michael Batnik]

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[Ben Carlson]

Institutional quality in this context is meant to convey a level of professional rigor and expertise combined with low cost. To learn more, visit vanguard.com all investing is subject to risk. Investments and bonds are subject to interest rate, credit and inflation risk. Copyright 2025 the Vanguard Group Inc. All Rights Reserve Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

[Michael Batnik]

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

[Ben Carlson]

Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain.

[Michael Batnik]

Positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Sports with Michael and Ben. It is the first week of August. This is usually the time of the year when everything slows down. It seems to not be happening at all this year for our business at Red Hot Wealth Management, which is a reflection of the economy in the stock market. Obviously the stock market itself has been interesting, to say the least, over the last week. We're still manufacturing. I know manufacturing is down, but not with our merchandise. Ben and I are rocking new shirts. The Grand Rapids Hedge limited edition. Literally. We only printed a limit.

[Ben Carlson]

We only printed a limited shirt in West Michigan.

[Michael Batnik]

And I want to give a shout to Weston who suggested this idea. So I took it, I typed it into ChatGPT. I said, make me a shirt with a tidal wave that says Grand Rapids Hedge. I think I said to him, or maybe Nicole, I can't remember, and they said, why not just a bush instead of a tidal wave? Because you know, the rapids. And I said, eh, bush looks better. And that was. It took two seconds. So if you are listening early and you go to I don't shop.com, you won't see it because it goes up at 9am Eastern Wednesday morning. I don't shop.com Grand Rapids hedge T shirt.

[Ben Carlson]

So we're getting our flooring done in our house and everything's just a big mess. Like all the flooring's ripped up and they're putting stuff in and it's a big campaign. But every morning I kind of have a meeting with the guy who's running the show. He kind of states, hey, today we're going to do this, we're going to do that.

[Michael Batnik]

And so are you actually. Are you actually like, do you know what he's talking about or is this like the, the oil stick in the car and you just.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I'm just curious, like, when are you going to have the. When I'm going to see some more progress. But because we're leaving the house at 8am to get out of their way and kids are running around and I walked to meet him this morning and he's like, what's up with the. What's up with the shirt? What is that? What does that mean? That's take too long to explain.

[Michael Batnik]

How did you explain it?

[Ben Carlson]

I was like, nevermind, it's just a thing.

[Michael Batnik]

Don'T worry about it.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. So we're a month out from future proof now. I feel like we haven't really pushed it as much. Maybe we don't even have to anymore because it's taken on a life of its own. But we're getting very, very close. And I think it's worth mentioning that because it's gotten so big, there is actually a cap this year. Right. And the people who can come, because we don't want people to stay, like, an hour away. So there's. What is it, 5,000 people that are coming that can come.

[Michael Batnik]

And we are. I don't think we can announce the musical act yet. I don't think it's public yet. But next week, and I will just say this. We've had some bangers. Last year, we had Third Eye Blind. And was that. Did Ex Ambassadors open for them or was that the year before? I can't remember.

[Ben Carlson]

No, that was a year before.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay, well, anyhow, I'm telling you, this is going to be the best concert in the history of Future Proof.

[Ben Carlson]

No, maybe it was last year. I can't. But, yeah, it's gonna be awesome.

[Michael Batnik]

I cannot wait. I cannot wait.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And we're. We're doing Animal Spirits live right, this year, like in the afternoon, one of the last sessions of the day, right into cocktail hour. Our own cocktail hour, I think.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

It's going to be excellent. Yes. And I've already. I've gotten a ton of messages from people saying, hey, this sounds like.

[Michael Batnik]

Sounds like two or three.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, well, you know, listen, I'm not a. I'm not a big, like, LinkedIn message guy. Like, once a month, I'll go look at all my messages on LinkedIn. And I just saw like, five or six saying, hey, I'm coming to Future Proof for the first time this year.

[Michael Batnik]

All right. That is a relative ton, Right?

[Ben Carlson]

That's a lot. Yeah. So sign up futureproofhq.com all right. I feel like for the past 18 to 24 months, people have been kind of skirting around the idea that AI essentially. And the AI spend essentially saved the stock market and saved the economy from a potentially worse outcome from the inflation and all this stuff. And it was like a. It was a handoff. Like, the reason the soft landing happened is because of AI Spend. But it feels like this is the week where everyone finally put numbers to that. Like, we've seen some charts, but it just seemed to. Collectively, everyone kind of went, oh, my gosh. Yeah, it really. It really is.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Oh, wait. I just want to give credit to Josh. He was early to that.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, Josh was the one who was saying, like, chat GPT saved.

[Michael Batnik]

Because that was 2022 and I'm pretty sure like in mid to early 2023 when that was still sort of like a joke, at least it was said. It was said a bit tongue in cheek. 100%. Right. It's, it's unbelievable.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And the market sniffed it out. Right. So this is from Luke Kawat, Sherwood News. If this is showing Microsoft Alphabet, Amazon Meta and Oracle and this is like each step is just a little higher in terms of spend and then.

[Michael Batnik]

Wait, you didn't. I don't think you describe what it's showing.

[Ben Carlson]

It's showing the 12 month forward estimated CapEx for these five companies.

[Michael Batnik]

The reason, I think the reason why this all came together this week the way that it did in terms of the narrative is because we had earnings from these companies. Right. And then the juxtaposition of that and their commitment to spending with software economic data really as the dude said, tied the whole room together.

[Ben Carlson]

So the Financial Times did meta, Google, Microsoft and Amazon Maga stocks, Is that it? They said they spent a combined 150 billion in 2023, 250 billion in 2024 and it's forecasted to be 320 billion this year. It's just unbelievable. This is another crazy one. So spending by the Mag 7, this is in terms of R D and capex was up 40% in 2024. For the other 493 stocks capex increased by less than 4%. So they're like they're, they're spending gobs and gobs of money.

[Michael Batnik]

I wonder if this the. Well not I wonder it remains to be seen if the all of the Capex that the hyperscalers are spending is going to translate into productivity gains for the other 493. Right? That's the question.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that would be the great question if you're one of these other companies who didn't have to do the spend but you still got the efficiency gains. So this from renmac I think is sneaky like wonky. Chart of the year. Not just chart of the year, it's only for wonks but they say so far this year AI CapEx, which we define as information processing equipment plus software has added more to GDP growth than consumer spending. And when you consider the fact that consumer spending makes up roughly 70% of the economy. This is an insane chart. Absolutely insane like history book kind of level chart here. Yeah, this, this, it shouldn't be this way.

[Michael Batnik]

Some more context on this. Cali has another chart similarly showing the inflation adjusted change by gdp. GDP component of AI and tech investments, which you just mentioned, versus consumer spending. And the change so far, AI is up $152 billion. I think this is year over year versus consumer spending is up $77 billion. Now, it doesn't mean that AI spending is more. It just means that the change is greater, the increase.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

Which is still wild. It's still insane. Cali wrote, last quarter, consumer spending totaled 16.4 trillion. So let me sum this up. The question now is, like, can we have a softening economy, a weakening consumer, without a commensurate softening in the stock market? Because the hyperscalers are powering so much of this? And maybe. Well, I don't know. We'll. We'll find out. But Cali said last quarter, kind of.

[Ben Carlson]

What we did have a little bit in 2022, the economy softened a little bit. They started spending.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, the stock. But the stock market got killed in 2022.

[Ben Carlson]

Wow. Oh, okay. Right.

[Michael Batnik]

Last quarter, consumer spending totaled 16.4 trillion, while AI's contribution to GDP calculated as business investment in information processing equipment and software was about 1.4 trillion. All right, so 16.4 trillion. Consumer spending. $1.4 trillion in. In terms of AI's contribution. So it. Consumer spending dwarfs it.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, but that's still an insane.

[Michael Batnik]

It is number. AI investment is still peanuts compared to the sheer power of our financial decisions, even if it has technically grown more in dollar terms this year. So Callie is. It sounds like Cali is skeptical that we can.

[Ben Carlson]

She's doing the denominator blindness thing. She's saying, like, put a denominator on this.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. But also, like, I know we're talking about this later. The. The question is. All right, so consumer spending and the economy is slowing down a little bit, for sure. But is it rolling over? Is it going to contract? And we'll see.

[Ben Carlson]

That's the hard part.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, this is. This is a wild chart. This is from Joey Politano, Data center versus office construction. So US Office constructing construction spending, which.

[Ben Carlson]

The charts come together like that. That's just. That's all.

[Michael Batnik]

Versus versus Data center construction spending. And they are almost touching tips, which is remarkable when you look at the.

[Ben Carlson]

Chat GPT launch there.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Do you. Do you have anyone in your life who can't say chat GPT, who always says chat GBT or chat GPT gtp? Do you have anyone in your life that does that?

[Michael Batnik]

For sure.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, I got a lot of that. Oh. So Paul Kadraski did this piece on AI spending, and he has this great chart that Shows infrastructure capex as a percentage of GDP by era. And he shows the railroads in the 1800s which was like 6%. That's one of the history's unknown bubbles. I wrote about it in my don't fall for it book that the railroads are this massive, massive. And it was one of those bubbles that really helped people because it got, they, they laid so much rail down that it helped people go from city to city and move and all this stuff. So then he shows telecom that bubbles and then data centers. And data centers are getting up to like 1.2% of GDP. So listen, my problem with this is I don't want to be one of those experts on an earlier version of the world where you go, listen, every single other time this has happened, it's led to a bubble and then a washout. You, you know, even if the investments pay off as they did in the dot com bubble.

[Michael Batnik]

I know we all have the talking points.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, they, they, it could turn out that they overspend by a few hundred billion here or there and then that leads to a washout. Then what? So that would be the historical playbook of. Listen, expectations get too high, they spend way too much. Someone starts pulling back spending and going wait a minute, we spent way too much. Even if this AI stuff works, what if we just overspent by like $400 billion and didn't need to spend that much? Then there's a washout and then they still, maybe the Mag 7 still has AI supremacy. That would be the historical playbook for how this plays out. And even it doesn't have to be a dot com washout. It could be a. Listen, some of these stocks fall 30, 40, 50%. Again, that would be the historical playbook. Is that too easy at this? Because I feel like a lot of people think no, no, no, no. It's a simple baton handoff. The AI spend happens, you get the roi. These companies keep going off to the races. What's more likely.

[Michael Batnik]

Lay that out one more time.

[Ben Carlson]

So the two options are overspending, expectations too high, you get some sort of washout. Even if like the dot com bubble, not even that level. I can't imagine that. I don't think you can say we're going to have an 85% washout. That's ridiculous. These companies actually make money. Yeah, they didn't make money back then, but. So that's the expectations too high. You get a washout in tech stocks. Option two is. No, they help spend all this money. AI magically works.

[Michael Batnik]

Roi boom, handoff that we perfectly thread the needle. That seems, that seems unlikely. All right, let me offer up a Grand Rapids Hutchinson wearing the shirt.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

At some point in time I guarantee expectations will get ahead of ourselves. I don't know when that's going to be. Are we there? Are we past there? Maybe Nvidia for example which by the way I sold two tranches and I will be out this week. I don't want to be greedy. I'm up 80% or whatever it is Nvidia is.

[Ben Carlson]

See you're doing the GR Patagon. I'm holding on for a bubble. Yeah, this is on. We're like, we've like switched roles here.

[Michael Batnik]

Usually I'd be the one selling Nvidia. Is Todd on us a chart and he says just about a 1% difference separates Nvidia from the entire healthcare and industrial sectors. I mean come on. Yeah. Can it go to 5 trillion? Can it go to 6? Can it go to 10? I don't see why it couldn't.

[Ben Carlson]

So the, the most likely candidates.

[Michael Batnik]

But it's almost bigger than all every industrial and every healthcare. I'm sorry, I, you know. All right, that's just me.

[Ben Carlson]

The most likely candidates for expectations have gone too high in spending is. It's just, it's Facebook or Nvidia saying like listen, we're, we're pulling back a little bit that those are the two big most likely candidates. Correct. That would cause video back roll over.

[Michael Batnik]

It's. It's going to be Facebook or Microsoft Meta or Microsoft.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I guess Microsoft.

[Michael Batnik]

But, but listen, I have no like you and everybody else listening. Who knows where we are.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, but that's, that's a historical playbook and my, my think. My line of thinking is it's almost too easy to follow the historical playbook, isn't it?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, that it's.

[Ben Carlson]

Listen if you really is following that.

[Michael Batnik]

To a T. Well, I also think we're very focused here on the stock market. Know you and I have been using chat GPT more and more in our daily lives and some of the tools that are coming into our industry. I think because we're so focused on the stock market, I think maybe we're losing sight of the fact that it really is magic. Matter of fact Robin was telling me about something that she used yesterday and she couldn't believe it. And I, we were talking like yeah, it really is magic. And every single executive at all of these companies are saying that this is the biggest revolution of our lifetimes. Biggest technological revolution, far bigger than the Internet. And I think that we maybe speak too much about the market and not enough about like the way that these.

[Ben Carlson]

My question is to change the world in terms of changing the world and the. But how do they make money though? Like how are they going to make money on this?

[Michael Batnik]

Well, ChatGPT just disclosed their revenue. I think they're raising 40 billion at $300 billion valuation and the growth numbers are insane.

[Ben Carlson]

So the other thing is there are no counterfactuals. But Josh mentioned the point that like 2022, this thing really turned the ship and stopped us and helped us off landing. But the trade policy stuff, the trade war that happened earlier this year, if take away the AI Capex, if that doesn't happen, that downturn is probably worse and we're probably not back to all time highs.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, but then you start doing the takeaway. Takeaway. Takeaway. Takeaway.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, but this is a one variable thing. You can say like this, this thing really saved us probably from the trade war because AI kind of trumped Trump here.

[Michael Batnik]

You would think, you would think there's, there's a lot, there's not a whole. Not to say that, you know, the economy is like unraveling. I think that would be a stretch. But housing is frozen. The economy is not really growing.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, that's a big piece of it. Like how could you have a recession in housing for three years and the economy is still fine? AI Right. So here's a question that people have been positing lately. Did I use that word correctly?

[Michael Batnik]

I think so.

[Ben Carlson]

It sounded really smart. If, let's say interest rates fall in a meaningful way, go from like 7% mortgage, I know they're falling already, but go to like 5%. Is that actually bad for the stock market if rates fall? Because finally a lot of this money that's been locked up goes into down payments and goes into housing and it doesn't go into the stock market anymore. So could falling rates be bad for the stock market?

[Michael Batnik]

No. No.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

I mean, yes, we've heard from listeners.

[Ben Carlson]

There are Galaxy Brain take.

[Michael Batnik]

There are, yeah, there are people that are putting their, what would be their house down payment into the stock market and maybe at the margins that's, that's propping up some of these stocks. But the idea that rates are going to fall and all the money's going to come out of the stock market to buy real estate. Come on.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

It's a little too cute.

[Ben Carlson]

It is. Sometimes those cute things are the ones that get you though. All right. Carvana is absolutely insane. So we talked about open door a couple weeks ago. Carvana was down 98.99% at the lows and it was a Meme stock. And the funny thing is it's still not back to the levels of the Meme stock that it was at in 2021. Early 2022, I thought it meant.

[Michael Batnik]

No, no. It made an all time high.

[Ben Carlson]

Did it come back okay? Yeah, maybe my chart told. So it's up 9,000, 10,000% or something from the lows. Do you think that this kind of price action when people see this is actually a bad thing for investors to see? Because they did like okay, just bottom fish. It's simple. Like this is. This is an outlier, obviously.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. The answer to that. Is this bad for investors is a. It depends. Right? It depends on the investor.

[Ben Carlson]

True. I just think seeing this kind of. This is. This seems like a once in a lifetime kind of move.

[Michael Batnik]

I think you're right in the sense that everybody who is in the market knows about Carvana and it will encourage people to look for the next Carvana, if that's what you're asking. I think that's fair.

[Ben Carlson]

Have you looked at the peloton chart lately? Like peloton is peloton balance pretty good, right? I mean this, it's a stock that's still 8. It's 96% off the highs.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know how you get. I don't know how. Credit to Eric Jackson for holding on. At least I think he did. I don't know how you have the stomach to make a 9,000% return. Can you imagine if I buy a stock at a dollar and it goes to two, I am doing backflips.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

It goes to three. I'm buying a yacht.

[Ben Carlson]

Speaking of backflips, my son has the ability to do a backflip on our trampoline.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, that's impressive. That takes balls.

[Ben Carlson]

It is because I don't have the. You need to something in the back of your head that like the switch doesn't go off and it just shuts off and lets. Cuz like the danger dangerous switch.

[Michael Batnik]

Right. Like I can.

[Ben Carlson]

And my. So my. Yeah. I've joked that my son is going to be the kid in high school where they say hey George, go do this and he'll be okay.

[Michael Batnik]

Run through a fence.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, yeah. He'll be that guy. But we, we. Our favorite thing we put on our back of our pontoon this year is a diving board. I think I sent you some videos. It's awesome. It's a total game changer. It's a diving board on a boat and he tried to do a backflip. I've been goading him into it all summer, going, dude, you can do a backflip on the trampoline. You have to try to do it on the. On the boat, on the diving board. I guess this is a very good story, but maybe I'll send Duncan a video to show. But he, he gets halfway around and you can see his face like, oh no, I'm not gonna make it. And it's like the oh no song. Like it's. His body just kind of stopped in midair and just wow. And he's like, see, that's why I don't do it. All right, I tried it.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, so on Friday, it was the big this one Beltunas. The biggest spy volume day since april's tariff tantrum. $86 billion is a good size freak out double any other ETF or stock.

[Ben Carlson]

Why was this?

[Michael Batnik]

I think this was. This was the combination of data slowing and maybe Trump firing the BLS head of the bls and also a combination of just profit taking. I don't know. We've gone straight up and any excuse to freak out investors will take.

[Ben Carlson]

And that was like a what, a 1% down day or whatever I think.

[Michael Batnik]

It was ended one and a half.

[Ben Carlson]

I do, I do think that I'm a little surprised that we haven't had more flash crashes. That just because of the way the market structure is these days that we don't have a.

[Michael Batnik]

But isn't there. Isn't it less, not less? I feel like in 2010. I don't know, I'm making this up. It was a lot of algos. And not to say there's not a lot of high frequency trading today. There is, obviously, but do the retail investors and their participation make flash crashes less likely now that they're 25% of volume? I don't know.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, maybe. I just think there have to be air pockets. That's just my line of thinking.

[Michael Batnik]

Why?

[Ben Carlson]

Because of how fast things move. I mean, I guess we kind of did have a couple flash crashes when the market fell 5% back to back days.

[Michael Batnik]

It was orderly. Yeah, I don't know. It's orderly. Don't worry.

[Ben Carlson]

Our colleague and the writer of Abnormal Returns, Tata S Ganta, and I have been talking and we've been going back and forth in this for years, blogging about it. I think he was the first one to write up. He's always been in the Corner of. There's never been a better time to be an individual investor in terms of the access you have to strategies, the low fees, the Ease of Access, $0 trading commissions, all the great stuff.

[Michael Batnik]

Do you think anybody would describe the. Any average investor would describe the market that way? Doesn't feel like it. Right. Maybe just because the. The nation's discourse.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, but if you just think about how easy it is to invest versus how it was in the past, when in the like 80s and 90s you'd have to literally go down to a brick and mortar building and write a checkout and then a few days later they buy a mutual fund for you and charge you a 6% sales load or whatever. Now you fund your Robinhood account, you're trading five minutes later. So I think we've got a case of Wall street striking back. It's not necessarily just Wall street, but it's, it's also people's behavior. So this is from Barron's. During the second quarter, CME reported more than 90,000 retail traders, a 56% increase, trading futures for the first time, fifth consecutive quarter of double digit growth. And they say this is an incredible feat for any business, but especially for an established exchange. Major Boris's tend to rely. Boris' great word, right? Don't use that very often. Major Boris's tend to rely on market volatility and well established customers for growth. So they're saying, listen, retail traders don't typically trade futures. The fact that they are, is, is kind of insane. And like this, this is unheard of that this is happening.

[Michael Batnik]

Actually, let's do a plug. We're doing a talking book with cme. I'm very excited to talk to them. Yes, as a, as a shareholder. But also I'm curious about what's going.

[Ben Carlson]

On here and I want to hear about this. All right, so here's a cool chart from Twitter that I found. Robinhood generated $265 million in options revenue this quarter. That's a quarterly record for the online brokerage platform. The Wall Street Journal had a piece on what and it says in this frothy market, it's boom times for brokers like Robinhood. They show trading revenue at Robinhood surged 65% in the second quarter from a year earlier.

[Michael Batnik]

But you know, it's funny you said it's Wall street back. Like Robinhood is like. Or got started as like the anti Wall Street.

[Ben Carlson]

I guess when I'm saying Wall street back and I want to throw in things like private equity and private credit funds. And all this stuff just. I feel like we hit a low point of passive investing and low fees and now it's back to like insane activity. And this is, this is just good for Wall street being back in terms of the middle being the middleman.

[Michael Batnik]

How about this?

[Ben Carlson]

Ben taking a cut.

[Michael Batnik]

Everyone's. Everything's back. If you are not back, you're in trouble. I saw Baltunas tweeted last week that ark just had a record inflow in a single day. Like, if you're not back now, you might never be back.

[Ben Carlson]

It is kind of crazy that they, they survived like an 80% washout. Arkk. Right?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

And people kept. I know people finally took some money out, but more or less people kept putting money in and they're fine. I think they're having a good year this year. They're up. Yeah, they're up 30% this year. So that, that's snapping. I just think the Wall street comeback thing is just like as a middleman. Wall street finally is like, oh, we're back. We're making money again on this stuff where for years and years it was lower fees and lower.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, you're right. Yeah, you're right. Here's another example of everyone being back. Baltunas. Baltunas is so back. He's on fire. This episode. He tweeted two different Yield Max ETFs in the top 10 in one day flows. Never saw that before. That's crazy. So u lty what is that? Is that. Let's see. Is that what I think?

[Ben Carlson]

Ultra option income.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. I don't even know what that is. That's not what I thought it was. All right. And msty, I think that's the month. Is that the micro strategy? Anyway, those were in the top 10. Yeah. Yield Max micro strategy option income. Okay. Those are in the top 10 in daily flows. It goes VO. This was a day last week or two weeks ago. Voo XLF, Ulty VTI is on the list. And msty so it's funny.

[Ben Carlson]

Ulti is one of these ones where there's. I get. I'm. I'm sure they're selling these really short dated options. Whatever says the dividend yields 112%. But then if you look at the performance of the, the price chart obviously goes down because you're just relying on the income.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't think this is like the dumb money that people think it is. I think that, I think that there is obviously, obviously an element of people.

[Ben Carlson]

I, I think, I think this is dumb money. Sorry. Man, this is dumb money.

[Michael Batnik]

Now hold on, hold on. Let me just make a case.

[Ben Carlson]

Obviously, 100% yield. Of course. This is dumb money.

[Michael Batnik]

Obviously there is an element of people that don't understand what's happening here and think that this is like alchemy, but I.

[Ben Carlson]

100% yield. Oh, my God.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, but fine, let me say this. I would, I, I, I would bet that the percentage of people who understand exactly what they're getting is higher than you would think. That's all I'm saying.

[Ben Carlson]

Dumb money outweighs the smart money in these funds though.

[Michael Batnik]

Of course. I'm just saying there's more people. I would. Some people, More people who know what's going on.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. Just go into, go into your, these things with your eyes wide open. That's.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, but the retail crowd is much smarter tonight than it used to be.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, that I agree with. Yes. The people who want, yeah, there are people who do understand this and maybe like jump in and out of these things depending on when the payouts happen. And Yeah, I, that's, that's fair. I've been saying for years that the retail money is not dumb money anymore. They are now the smart money.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, so let's talk about the economy. Ernie tedeschi. The 253,000 two month downward revision to payroll employment is the largest since at least 1979. So, you know, legitimately not great. Cali has a chart showing the three month average of non farm payrolls, not quite negative, but falling sharply. I mean, I don't know how else to describe it. The economy is slowing.

[Ben Carlson]

So every time this has happened, and it feels like it happens once every six months, call it for the past three, four, five years, people freak out. Okay, this is it. And then it doesn't happen.

[Michael Batnik]

When you say people freak out, you mean like people on Twitter or. What do you mean exactly?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, the macro, macro. People just like, okay, this is it, everyone. Matthew Klein didn't seem to be worried about it. He said the job market is still strong. The U.S. economy, here's, here's the take. The U.S. economy slowed in the first half of 2025, but not enough to raise the unemployment rate, hit wage growth, or make a dent in the worsening inflation picture. This is not a crisis, even if the situation is marginally worse than at the end of 2024. So I keep, I've been saying for a while now, like, what if all the slowdown we keep seeing is just normalization?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, Wait, hang on. Who's saying crisis?

[Ben Carlson]

No one's saying crisis. But I think every time that we see a slowing, people kind of just get nervous and go like, what if this is actually it? Finally, what if, what if this is it and never seems to kind of come. Obviously one of those times is going to happen. He's saying the change in net immigration has been massive and could explain most if not all of the observed slowdown in aggregate real growth rate, payroll, unemployment. Oh okay, but that's a real thing, right?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

And he's saying like the employment to population ratio for 25 to 54 which is prime age workers, has essentially been the same since 2023. Now he's saying, listen, the, the administration's response to these numbers is a crisis. However, firing the head of the BLS and saying I don't trust the numbers. It is kind of funny how all this information we have and the like in the past, no one ever would have thought to even think about this because no one was smart enough to even really explain, besides a few wonky people, how this stuff actually works. Right. People kind of just take it at face value and be kind of naive.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Now everyone's an economist.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. So now that we have more information, more information actually makes people less trusting. And it's funny, people are more trusting of vibes now than they are of data, even though there's more data than there's ever been before.

[Michael Batnik]

So Chamath, for example, tweeted nonfarm payrolls are total garbage. So I asked Grok, which okay, anyway, Andrew Cohen responded. I worked at BLS for years and could tell you that revisions are completely legitimate. Many field reported stats simply come in late after the close of the month. Would you prefer that they just ignore the newer stats that come in? In fact, as a senior BLS economist, I myself led to a led a study to detect any systematic direction of post publishing inflation revisions. So to see if there was like any shenanigans or nonsense, it was a perfect bell curve. A normal distribution centered around the mean of 0% revisions. So some on the high end, some on the low end, but all in all it's a wash. Economists take the responsibility seriously. There is no political bias, just the facts as well as they can be calculated. So he responded to himself or quote tweeted himself said wow, these comments are blowing up. This is Andrew Cohen. What y' all don't understand is the number of economists and analysts involved in producing BLS statistics and revisions. In order to collude or fudge the data, literally hundreds of people would need to be in on the conspiracy. But amazingly there has never been one leak. Take off your tinfoil hats and look at reality.

[Ben Carlson]

So I'm glad that he spoke up and said something. But think about, I guess I look at the revisions as like they're trying to get the numbers right. And I just think about how complicated a 30 plus trillion dollar economy is to think that you could have these real time statistics of employment for 300 plus million people or whatever. It's, it's not realistic.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Anyway, needless to say, firing the head of the BLS for revisions is in my opinion very dangerous.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, of course it is. But I just think like people saying like this is kind of Banana Republic stuff. Like I don't think you. There's so much data now and other ways for people to understand what's going on. You can't, you can't lie to the economy eventually. All right, so there was a story in the Wall Street Journal and I keep wondering like, is this weakness actually real this time or is it just vibes again? And they had this story said American consumers are getting thrifty again. They interview all these people about what they're doing and they talk about how CEOs of Chipotle, Kroger and Procter and Gamble are telling investors that their customers are more strapped or appear to feel that way. There's a lot more consumer anxiety, says Dirk Vandeput, chief executive of Mondelez. Same like Oreo cookies and Ritz crackers and sounds like all the junk food.

[Michael Batnik]

My kids eat or consumer preferences changing and people don't want that shit anymore.

[Ben Carlson]

That's possible. But it reminded me of this story from 2022. Remember this one? Wall street says a recession is coming. Consumers say it is already here. Shoppers are getting squeezed and the money is disappearing fast. It feels like a boy who cried wolf moment. And I wonder if you're better off when trying to think through the economy if you're better off being late than being early. Like everyone wants to be early.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

And calling it ahead of time.

[Michael Batnik]

There's no glory in being late.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. But I wonder if, if being late is the better option.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know, man. I think a lot of these articles like you can find any number of people all over the country who are always experiencing, experiencing what looks like a recession to them.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, there are always bad.

[Michael Batnik]

There are always industries and people struggling. And they are in the business of getting subscribers and getting people to click and not, I'm not, you know, trying to paint the all this with a broad brush that media is all fake and all that sort of stuff. But I think, yeah, I think a lot of this stuff you got to take with a grain of salt.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. Hey, you said it right that time.

[Michael Batnik]

Thank you.

[Ben Carlson]

We don't do a lot of victory laps here, but I'm going to take a victory lap that I picked this. Mohamed El Erian. Per the Financial Times chart below us, wage growth for the lowest paid has now slumped below that for the highest paid, widening the considerable inequities, inequalities in total pay and wealth. Hashtag inequality. He still uses the hashtags, hashtag economy, hashtag wages.

[Michael Batnik]

So he's looking for I love Muhammad. He is the Magic Johnson of finance. Twitter.

[Ben Carlson]

Ah, yes, that's a good call. But I said people are going to be nostalgic for the 2021, 2022, 2023 economy at some point that everyone hated at the time. There's going to be nostalgia for that period of high wage growth and the ease of switching jobs and finding better employment and higher wages. He's saying, listen, it used to be that the lowest wage quartile was getting the highest growth, growth in wages. Now they're the lowest. This is a bad thing. People like you were saying. No, the other thing was a bad thing when wages are too. Growth is too high. But I'm just saying there's, there's going to be.

[Michael Batnik]

Wait, what are you saying? You were right about it.

[Ben Carlson]

I said people are going to be nostalgic for that high wage growth period, even though everyone hated it because inflation was high.

[Michael Batnik]

But where's the proof that you were right?

[Ben Carlson]

He's saying, listen, because at that time, the lowest wage cohort had the highest wage growth and now they have the lowest wage growth because guess what happens? We're back to normal. Higher wage, higher growth, higher wage growth for people who make more money. And he's saying, ah, this is bad. It's inequality, I think.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, I guess we'll rehash this debate. I think that soaring wage growth, which directly drives inflation, is bad for the nation because people adjust to their pay raise immediately, but they don't adjust how expensive everything is and then people get pissed off. I mean, that's pretty. I think, I think we have conclusive evidence that what I'm saying is true.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. Because yeah, wages are. I did that. Prices are. No, you did that.

[Michael Batnik]

Exactly.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. But I'm just saying people are going to look back at that period of high wage growth and like, you could make more money just by switching jobs and you go, oh my gosh, that was glorious. But no, at the time, people hated it. Hated it.

[Michael Batnik]

So, billion dollar job offer. I missed this article. This is a real thing.

[Ben Carlson]

Mark Zuckerberg offered to acquire Thinking Machines Lab and recruit its employees, including Andrew Tullock. Zuckerberg offered him a package potentially worth $1.5 billion, but the guy declined.

[Michael Batnik]

Can I say one thing about this in terms of like looking back on this as a Holy shit, that was the craziest thing ever moment. Wait a second. I remember when Mark Zuckerberg declined a billion dollar offer from Yahoo. And I remember when Instagram sold for a billion dollars, there was 11 people at the company and we all thought it was the craziest thing. And I remember when WhatsApp got sold for $23 billion and it seemed like the craziest thing. Why is this any different? So this guy's. This, this Facebook Zuckerberg is offering to buy this guy's company for a billion and a half dollars and he said no. So.

[Ben Carlson]

No, he's just an employee there. He doesn't even own the company. Someone else owns the company. This is just. I think that's the difference.

[Michael Batnik]

Because it takes money to make money. Am I right?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. Honestly though, they're the. They're the canary in the coal mine. Eventually they have to be with how much money they're spending.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know. I think, I feel like that guy's earned the benefit of the doubt now. Like he knows a lot more about his business and what they're trying to do than we do a couple of wearing these dumb T shirts.

[Ben Carlson]

But it really is insane that he tried to pivot his company and three, four years ago to the frickin metaverse. Remember that? The picture of him in the metaverse. They should just change their name again to like Facebook AI or something like Facebook FAI book, you know, I don't know. Credit to him though. He. He pivoted off.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. And he pivoted again. Credit to him.

[Ben Carlson]

Remember when people were buying real estate in the Metaverse? That was an actual thing that actually, that actually happened this, this decade. People were buying real estate in the Metaverse.

[Michael Batnik]

You still have that parcel.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, right on the lake.

[Michael Batnik]

You just effened. You never effing.

[Ben Carlson]

Because I was so stupid. There's just. There's been a lot of dumb stuff that's happened.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, this is from Census Bureau. Census Bureau Business Trends, if you could believe that. I don't. Which shows the percent of establishments using artificial intelligence in production and it's only. It's not even 10% yet. Like, to say that we're early is an understatement. It has not even begun.

[Ben Carlson]

I think there are a lot of civilians who just don't interact with it much at all.

[Michael Batnik]

Yet I would say. I would say nine out of ten people don't.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

Maybe more.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And it's going to be. It is funny because when people finally do interact with it more, it's going to be just keep getting better. So they haven't gone through all the phases where it didn't work very good.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. All right, let's talk about crypto for a second. So Asness tweeted, this is. He said, for anyone who thinks today's markets are normal or just normal, I remind you that the market cap of Far coin is still $1.4 million, $1.4 billion. And then he quote tweeted himself, it said 950 million. The air is coming out of the fart coin bubble. For now. See, this is the point that I was making about market caps. This is not a market cap. There is not. There is not a billion dollar market cap in fart coin. I understand, like supply price, blah, blah, blah. It's not a billion dollars. It's just not. We are.

[Ben Carlson]

I agree.

[Michael Batnik]

We are butchering market cap. We are saying, all right, stocks, crypto, shares, coins, price, times. It's. It's not a market cap. It's just not.

[Ben Carlson]

So one big.

[Michael Batnik]

I'm not saying it's not dumb like that. I'm not. I'm not.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, but. All right, so one big, One big investor in fart coin goes to sell and the whole thing collapses right now.

[Michael Batnik]

Not knowing anything about the supply and distribution of Far Coin. If there were one big whale in Far Coin, and I don't know if there is or if there isn't, but yes, if there were one and far Coin, any coin who tried to sell $70 million, I'm pretty sure that they would find out very quickly. The market cap is not the market cap. All right, this was interesting. From Will Clemente, Micro strategy bought. He quote, tweeted this. Micro strategy bought 21,000 bitcoin at a price of 117,000.

[Ben Carlson]

Wow.

[Michael Batnik]

So he quote, tweeted and said sailor bought $2 billion and bitcoin barely moved. Galaxy sold $8 billion for a whale and bitcoin barely moved. That feeling when you realize bitcoin is a real liquid macro asset now.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. There's not. These big moves don't move the needle anymore. Is what you're saying.

[Michael Batnik]

He said that he did some work with somebody else. Ox Ben Harvey recently and found that the bitcoin treasury companies are about half a percent of daily price impact on average, maxing out around 10% on days of heavy seller buying. The market is just much bigger now.

[Ben Carlson]

It is funny to think that a lot of the volatility of the past, whether it was on purpose or not, was probably being just pushed around. Remember, it felt like people could manipulate the price in the past and that is not a thing anymore.

[Michael Batnik]

That's where you had air pockets. Yes, Baltunas tweeted us. Crypto ETFs took in. This is insane. $12.8 billion in July, the best month ever. $600 million a day, about double average as a group. That's more than any single ETF did, including the mighty Voo most all around. I mean, that's, that's unbelievable. $600 million a day.

[Ben Carlson]

It's not stopping, huh? All right, I would love to get a. I would love to see a breakdown. I know you can't do this because you don't know where it comes from, how much of it is new money versus how much of it is coming from the exchanges and stuff and it doesn't really matter, but I would love to see.

[Michael Batnik]

I think a lot of us, I think a lot of it is new money saying, all right, this is real. Speaking of that, this, this seems very important. JP Morgan Chase and Jamie Dimon has been pretty vocally anti bitcoin. JP Morgan Chase and Coinbase launched strategic partnership to make crypto buying easier than ever. So this is what the report says. The initial phase of the partnership includes new features for mutual customers, including direct bank to wallet connection. Through JP Morgan Secure API, Chase customers will be able to seamlessly link their bank accounts to their Coinbase wallets. That seems very significant. Transfer of Chase ultimate reward points. Chase customers will be able to transfer their reward points to their Coinbase account at a one to one redemption. That seems very significant. This marks the first time a major credit card rewards program will be used to fund a crypto wallet. And then lastly, beginning this fall, the ability to use Chase credit cards on Coinbase. For the first time, customers will have the ability to fund their Coinbase accounts using Chase credit cards, which seems significant. You might say dangerous or crazy, but whatever, it's happening. This is a big deal. This is a very, very big deal.

[Ben Carlson]

I thought you could use credit credit cards on Coinbase before debit cards couldn't. Oh, that's Right, Okay. But with all the money going to ETFs, I just can't see how much. How much trading on Coinbase still matters as much anymore for retail, I think.

[Michael Batnik]

It'S still very big. 24 7. But also, why use cash to buy crypto when you could use credit, Am I right? Worry about it next month. That's. That's next month. Guy's problem.

[Ben Carlson]

The reward points thing makes sense to me. I am a big believer in just using all Europe. You save your reward points, right?

[Michael Batnik]

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. It's funny this. I was talking to my friend at the beach over the weekend. He has 700,000 Chase points and another couple hundred thousand Delta points. Like, dude, what are you doing? What is this?

[Ben Carlson]

He's. The inflation is being. It's like he's hiding his money under the mattress. The inflation is eating away at that every day.

[Michael Batnik]

I think it's an OCD thing. He just can't bring himself. He, like, he's still paying for vacations with Fiat. I'm like, what are you doing?

[Ben Carlson]

Why? Because, yeah, those points are worth way less over time.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. These aged like a rotten diaper. Spend it.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, use it. Just get it back in cash.

[Michael Batnik]

So let's talk real estate. Somebody has a chart showing the percent of U.S. cities with falling home prices. It is about half. Yeah, about half. Lance Lambert tweeted.

[Ben Carlson]

That's a meaningful number.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Lance Lambert tweeted the estimated number of US home buyers and sellers actively in the housing market. And not surprisingly, especially during the post pandemic period, buyers outnumbered sellers by almost 2 to 1. And now there are allegedly more sellers than buyers. I was curious how they measure this and we don't need to read it, but we'll link to this in the show notes if you want, from Redfin.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, they have their own. But here's the thing. Are these sellers, and they've been waiting, they've been on the sidelines because they've had the 3% mortgages. Are they willing to lower their prices a lot, though? That's the question. Like, if they still have the 3%, are they just. Are they testing the waters or are they actually going to be willing to lower the. Cause I would love to. If I was in the market, I would love to just throw lowball offers all over the place and see what hit.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

I wonder if a lot of them are going to be like, no, I'm not lowering my price.

[Michael Batnik]

I'm ready to share my housing story in a second. But before we do that. He also shows that he breaks it down by zip code because obviously real estate is very, a very local phenomenon. He shows active housing inventory for sale compared to pre pandemic levels. And he shows.

[Ben Carlson]

This is what we showed before. It's all the west and the south and the Southeast.

[Michael Batnik]

Is that what we were shown before?

[Ben Carlson]

This is, this is just a number of housing units for sale pre pandemic versus now. So there's more houses for sale in Texas and Florida.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, so it's showing way less, Way less inventory in, in the Northeast and the Midwest and more inventory in areas that people flock to like Texas and Florida. Right? Yeah, that's what this is showing.

[Ben Carlson]

So if you were a baby boomer, we'll get to the condo thing in a minute. Condos on the streets. Now is the time. Like if you haven't bought a condo in Florida, now is the time to do it if you're retiring. Because people are unloading these and can't sell them.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, really?

[Ben Carlson]

Well, so this is from the Wall Street Journal. They say the condo market is floundering. Four charts that explain the downturn. And I put a few.

[Michael Batnik]

What's the story here?

[Ben Carlson]

A lot of it is like these assessments they're getting in the insurance. So look at this price change. Year over year, condos are falling way faster than single family homes. Single family homes are still seeing growth. Condos are now falling in price. And they say that just the premium for condos is falling fast because they're getting all these assessments and people flock to them too. So if you want to buy a condo, now is the time to do it. Like people can't sell condos, especially in Florida. The market is just totally dried up. And so people are, they said that's the place where people are offering concessions when you buy because they have these assessments and these insurance from the new. Because all the condo buildings had to get the code and off these special assessments. And they're charging people a ton of money to live there still.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, so you spoke about low ball offers and are people lowering their prices? So, so this is from Redfin, Although via Daily Chartbook. Although the median sale price hit a record high during the four weeks ending July 20, it's up just 1.6% year over year compared to 5 to 6%. So new home price. I'm sorry, not new home prices. Home prices are still hitting all time highs, but the rate of price increase is slowing down dramatically. So I sold my house and it is wild how the story of me selling My house is a story of how life works with everything in terms of just, like, all of these things that had to happen for this to happen. The butterfly effect, if you will. So I bought a house in Long beach in 2020.

[Ben Carlson]

By the way, I enjoyed it.

[Michael Batnik]

Thumper. Remember that character? I bought my house in 2020. I had a single tenant in Long beach sold in 2025. Was not planning on selling it. I thought she was gonna stay there. She told me, like, a month before her contract was to be renewed that she was leaving. And I'm like, oh, my God, I gotta find somebody. Yeah, let me just sell it. Done with this. Had she left or had she not left abruptly, obviously. Well, not obviously. I wouldn't have had. It would have been much more difficult to have the cash to buy the house that I'm buying. So there was that kicking it off, then being on the beach with my friend at the time that I was where the Zillow notification popped up. And he said, like. He, like, gave me permission to buy this house. I was not even. It was not even a thought in my mind that we were going to leave. Right. I was thinking about, like, oh, I can't leave. Like, hey, I love my house. Be mortgage rates, blah, blah, blah. And so if I was anywhere else in the world, I would not have been moving. So, anyway, on the story of selling my house, we have a great house. It is a.

[Ben Carlson]

So you're saying. Sorry, it was serendipitous the way things worked out for you to buy a new house.

[Michael Batnik]

Yes. Like, everything in life, right? Like, every.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, thanks. Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

And so I was pretty curious to find out what it would be, the price and everything like that. But my house is a colonial, and in my town, that is a rare rarity. Most houses are either high ranches or splashes, which I'm not quite sure what the difference is, but whatever. Or a split level. I don't know if those are all the same thing.

[Ben Carlson]

Splanches. That's a new one to me.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. Yeah. I don't know. For some reason, it just doesn't click my brain. I'm not sure.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, how many. How many days did it take from when you listed to when you sold? It was less than a week, right?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. So we had an open house. And, Robin, for some reason, we have, like, seven ring cameras in my house. So I felt like I was like the nsa, like, spying on these people. I was following them from room to room. I was like, shh. Listening. These are the buyers. So we had. We had Six people show up to the open house. We got two offers and that was it. Now part of it is time of the year, right. I think like the buying season is, is more in the spring. Part of it is the price of the house, but most of it is interest rates. We've, we spoke to a lot of people in the community, friends of ours that would have loved to buy our house because like it is, it's. It's a. One of the bigger houses. It's got like the open concept, I guess is what they call it. But most people can't afford to get out of their mortgage, obviously.

[Ben Carlson]

Did you guys highlight the mudroom right away? Beautiful colonial, brand new mud room.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. So anyway, only. But only two offers and that was it. Now slightly over ask. But that was it. Two offers and nobody even saw the house after that. I think we had one showing, that was it. So no buyers.

[Ben Carlson]

So low supply of house, but low supply of buyers too.

[Michael Batnik]

Now I guess on the flip side, like all you need is one buyer, right? Right. It doesn't matter how many offers you get, you just need one buyer. But I was, I was very surprised. Maybe I shouldn't be in hindsight, but I was very surprised at the limited number of interest. And again, it's not rocket science, it's just interest rates.

[Ben Carlson]

It makes sense. So those things too, where you think you know what your house is worth, but the market is going to determine it for you.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. I got very lucky because there was another house. I was recommended to list it a hundred thousand dollars less than I actually listed it for. But I saw a house pop up on the market about the same time that we were going to sell hours that was listed for 100 or 200,000 more than mine. And I think my house is nicer. So I said thank you, sir, because they gave me the COVID to raise the price. Anyway, so now we've got a pack and move and everything like that. But you know what? I. I'm excited to purge. We have so much junk.

[Ben Carlson]

Feels good.

[Michael Batnik]

We have so much garbage we haven't gotten. So our kitchen is still full of like stuff that we got from our.

[Ben Carlson]

Wedding that you never use anymore or.

[Michael Batnik]

Or just like, I'm ready for new plates. I think I'll just buy new glasses on Amazon. I don't care. Just throw everything out.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I agree. Start over.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Anyhow, exciting. All right.

[Ben Carlson]

That's gonna be a newer house by when? Before school?

[Michael Batnik]

Probably not. Probably after future proof.

[Ben Carlson]

So, yeah, it's a future you thing to worry about. Now, how are you going to pack up all those books over there?

[Michael Batnik]

Those are not coming with me.

[Ben Carlson]

Get rid of all your books.

[Michael Batnik]

I'm saying goodbye to the books.

[Ben Carlson]

Bring them to the library.

[Michael Batnik]

You know they don't take donations.

[Ben Carlson]

Really?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, I asked. I have to. I mean, I will donate them somewhere, but I'll. I'll keep. I don't know, I'll keep some.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, real quick. There was another one of these. I thought it was from last year. Someone sent me this and it says, millennials are richer now, so why can't they stop worrying? And I thought, I'm like, wait, we already read this before, but it just came out. This person says you only have to watch the big short once and go, oh, my God, it just makes you jumpy. And then they also said this 45 year old lawyer in Boulder, Colorado, is a homeowner with ample retirement savings, but worries his wealth could suddenly disappear. He keeps an emergency fund that could cover his expenses for years. They're saying there's still millennials who are scarred by the great.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, well, how about this? Pretend you're a reporter, asked me a question. I'm a millennial.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. How are you feeling?

[Michael Batnik]

I'm feeling great. I just bought a house that financially makes no sense compared to the mortgage that I have today. But you only live once. I want to be on the water. I'm optimistic about my future ability to pay for this house. And so, yeah, I feel very blessed. Thank you.

[Ben Carlson]

Early 2025, the average net worth of millennials and older members of gen Z was 31% higher than baby boomers and 20% higher than gen Xers at similar ages. So, yeah, you're doing fine. You're ahead of the game.

[Michael Batnik]

Thank you.

[Ben Carlson]

I thought this was good. This maybe this is. We've been talking a lot about the definition of wealth.

[Michael Batnik]

Sorry, sorry. There will never be an article where it's like, hey, millennials are actually okay, right?

[Ben Carlson]

People are feeling good. That's true.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, it worked out. Sorry about all those articles. It actually worked out.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that's social media. This is interesting. So someone says, hey, hello, Ben. I think it's a dm. Holy crap. I realized something while I was listening to one of your podcasts this morning. It was said the middle class has the most of their wealth tied up in housing. It popped into my head that my 401k, Ira Roth IRA is now worth more than my house. I guess this makes me upper middle class. By the way, I live in Oklahoma City. Love your work. That's a pretty good definition. Is your portfolio of investments bigger than worth more than your house? That's a pretty good definition of wealth, right?

[Michael Batnik]

I would still, there's still some geographical stuff in there, but if we have to ascribe some sort of line in the sand, I think that's pretty good.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, real quick, plug. Since people said we don't do enough self promotion at the Unlock last week, just type in the unlock. At YouTube I talked about the 4% rule of bill Bengan, who came up with the, with the rule on his own. I think it was actually 4.15% in this original paper. But the 4% rule, this is a, this is a topic that has come up more and more because all the baby boomers retiring need to figure out how to spend their assets. Very good. Go give it a listen. All right, let's talk streaming stuff. There's still something off about Netflix shows. I don't know what it is. I don't know if it's because they're algorithm based or it's almost like feels like it could be AI, but we tried to watch this untamed show with Eric Bana where someone falls off of a mountain and they try to figure out who it is. And it just, if it's like they get good actors. Like they had a Julianne Moore Kevin Bacon show earlier this year. My wife watched and I tried to watch it with her and it just, it just, it feels like a computer made it up and their algorithm made it up.

[Michael Batnik]

You're right. And it is. And it does. Because I've heard many people say this. They genuinely write scripts and make TV such that you can be looking at your phone and still get 90%.

[Ben Carlson]

That's the thing. We turned it on and both my wife and I are on our phones and I'm like, why are we watching this if neither of us are watching it? Right, Turn it. Let's turn it off.

[Michael Batnik]

But that, that's how they make it. So you're right, it does feel hollow. And I feel like when's. Okay, here's a. This is a good metric. When's the last time you saw a show on Netflix that you said, I can't wait for season two?

[Ben Carlson]

That's true. It's funny. Even Squid Game, which I really liked when season two came out, I said, eh, don't need. I never watched it.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay, so every show there hasn't been a show. I'm sure there's an exception. But for example, fubar is a, is the poster child of this. So I very much enjoyed season one to the extent that you could very much enjoy this completely trashy, garbage action show.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't even know what. I don't know that it was.

[Michael Batnik]

It's Arnold. Okay. That's all you need. Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

I thought that was a movie. I didn't realize it was a show.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, so what on Netflix tweeted, as predicted, fubar has been canceled after two seasons. And my thinking is, like, why did they make season two now? They know their business better than I do. But I didn't watch. I know. Interest in season two viewership fell 76% from seasons one to two. And they will learn. And I bet you there will be way less shows, way less seasons to on Netflix. But the problem is, once you have a relatively successful season one, like, obviously you want to do a season two because it's, you know, deeper cheese or cheaper, convenient, maybe less risk. But you're right, they do feel hollow, because they are.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that makes sense. But I just. I can't do it. All right. The Wall Street Journal had this piece about goodbye, gentle parenting, Hello f around and find out. And it says, parents are ditching a softer approach to childbearing that has dominated the culture and taking a harder line. It's funny to read this because it's just talking about how we were parents when we were growing up.

[Michael Batnik]

Wait, is this true or are we. Are we turning on the Wall Journal?

[Ben Carlson]

I know it, but it's talking about this. This woman who said, like, her. Her son was spraying her the water gun at the campfire, and she's like, stop. And he wouldn't stop, so she threw him in the pond or something.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, I like that.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And it's. It says. It's this idea that parents can ask and warn, but if a child breaks the rules, mom and dad aren't standing the way of repercussions. It is funny because this is just. This is how parenting is supposed to work.

[Michael Batnik]

I agree.

[Ben Carlson]

Like, you're not supposed to let your child run all over you.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

But it probably does happen more often than you think. What the. Nice parenting. The. Oh, it's okay. Do you see that when a kid does something? Like, you're at the pool or whatever, and a kid does something, and the parents are right there and don't do anything.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. It drives me nuts. I am very much a. No. If your kid does something, you fix it.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, if my kid's doing something, I run over. Hey, stop that. My son was. They were playing the beanbag Toss game at the ice cream place the other night. And they're throwing the beanbag pellet things at each other. And I'm like, stop. Someone's got to get hurt shucking them.

[Michael Batnik]

And I'm like, last night we were at Point Lookout, which is a. There's a restaurant on the water. And there was a kid on the beach throwing sand. Not just at the kids, but there's like a dock that goes over the beach. And he was throwing sand at people who were eating. And this one guy turned around and goes. He's like, literally shoulder shrug emoji. He's like, looking for the parents. Like, how is this happening? How are you letting your 5 year old just chuck sand everywhere?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I like this idea. Like, do something. There's a lot of people who just don't do it. It's kind of funny. They have to have a story about it. All right, I got one quick, Midwest, nice story. My wife is gonna hate me for telling it, but I gotta tell. So we order food from a counter at our boat club, and the kids love it. Cause they can go. They have our name on account, and they just go and they order and they can get ice cream or whatever, and we tell them to always order. And like a month ago, the kids ordered and it was kind of busy, but not too busy. Usually the food takes 15 minutes. It's Mac and cheese and chicken nuggets and sandwiches, right? It's pretty easy. But we waited like 45 minutes for the food. And the kid's like, dude, what's going on? Where's our food? So I go up and ask and, hey, do you have our order? And they got our order wrong and they mess it up. And my wife is like, you can't do that. You can't. You're gonna make. You're gonna. We're gonna be the jerks that ask. And I'm like, no, no, you have to ask. Right?

[Michael Batnik]

Wow. That. That is. Your wife is very nice.

[Ben Carlson]

So she's very Midwest nice. And so it happened again this week. And all these people who ordered after us are getting their food. And I'm starting to. And I'm getting hangry. And I'm like, can I just go check, please? And she, no, we don't want to be those people again that do it twice. And so we wait and wait. And finally she goes and checks, and they had lost our order.

[Michael Batnik]

How long are we talking? Like, legitimately?

[Ben Carlson]

45 minutes.

[Michael Batnik]

Come on.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

You waited 45 minutes for chicken nuggets before you got Up.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And I'm.

[Michael Batnik]

And my wife is like, I'm sorry, 15 minutes.

[Ben Carlson]

She's like, you can't be the one person who does this. And we get a reputation. And I said, why can't you just ask them? I said, hey, just checking on the status order. And. And she got mad at me. Like, she got mad at me ahead of time, even telling me because she knew that I was right. Like, don't be such a jerk about it. You know, I'm just saying we should have checked. Sometimes you can be too nice because you don't want to become a Karen or whatever. That's what her worry was.

[Michael Batnik]

I get it. You know, you get mad at people that take their time in line. I. I don't know if I think I forgot to mention this to you. Maybe I did. People at the movie theater, did I do this last week? Okay, I'm sorry. If you are in line and there's a line and you go up, you can't be looking at the board, figuring out what you want. You either want popcorn or you want something else.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, you should have your order right here.

[Michael Batnik]

I mean, come on.

[Ben Carlson]

Looking the whole time.

[Michael Batnik]

You want popcorn, you want nachos? Get your fat ass out of the way and move it.

[Ben Carlson]

So the same thing is true at fast food or something. You can't get up to the counter and ask a question. Like, you have to know what you're getting. Order. All right, let's do some recommendations. I feel. I don't want to sound like I'm criticizing every new movie I see, but I've just seen a lot of really stinkers lately, and I feel like a lot of the TV and movie podcasts don't want to be critical of TV and movie, of actors and movies anymore because they have them on their show to promote it and stuff. So they can't say they can't be truthful. On Animal Spirits, we're truthful. And I saw two really weird movies and I didn't like them. Okay. I watched Friendship with Paul Rudd and Tim Robinson. I like Tim Robinson. His. His show was good. He's from Detroit. Right. I gotta represent. It was way too weird. I. I was really excited about this one. Like, I give this a 4.2. I turned it off halfway through.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

I tried it twice.

[Michael Batnik]

So I'm thankful that you did because I saw your score and I. And I've been. I've been meaning to watch this movie. So you lowered the bar for me. I enjoyed this movie. This is definitely not a you Movie. You don't, you don't like weird movies.

[Ben Carlson]

It was, it felt like he was in a different movie than everyone else in the movie.

[Michael Batnik]

That was the point. It was.

[Ben Carlson]

The point was like, listen, I, I definitely. I chuckled at a few of his lines. Like some of his lines were funny. It just, it was so weird. It wasn't. It was just way too weird for me. I didn't.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay, listen, this is the type of movie that you either enjoy it or you hate it. I don't think anybody would see Friendship. I'd be like, yeah, it's okay. It's polarizing because it's. It's very strange.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm sure there were people who really liked it. I just thought it was terrible.

[Michael Batnik]

I did like it. Thank. I think, I think, honestly, you lowering the bar so much helped, so thank you.

[Ben Carlson]

And there was still a few lines of his that he said that I chuckled about. But I'm like, he. It felt like he was in a different movie than everyone else in the movie.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, I also, I enjoyed the aspect of like middle aged dudes meeting each other and the awkwardness of.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that, that the beginning.

[Michael Batnik]

Group of friends.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

And I want to see where it went, but fair enough. All right. 28 years later, I have to take umbrage with this. This is a good movie. What did you not. I mean, then why did you. Why did you watch it?

[Ben Carlson]

I like, I enjoyed the first one.

[Michael Batnik]

I like the second one.

[Ben Carlson]

I really liked the first one and. Well, listen, I know Danny Bo.

[Michael Batnik]

I saw this in the theater, so I had a different experience than you did.

[Ben Carlson]

I know that Danny Bole does bizarre movies, but it felt like it was five movies in one and that. What the hell with the ending?

[Michael Batnik]

The ending was a little bit odd. The ending I didn't love too much.

[Ben Carlson]

I. It just. The movie was way like. I thought the stuff at the beginning with the dad and the son was good. And then I just thought it just. It went off the rails and it was just kind of like a. Huh. I just thought it was weird. I gave it a 4.9. Sorry. I loved the first one.

[Michael Batnik]

All right. Stick to coming of age movies. Get off my lawn. These are not for you.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. I rewatched the original Happy Gilmore because I wanted to see. It's been so, so long. I've always just caught the clips I wanted to see. Like, I didn't like the sequel at all. I thought it was an awful movie. And there was a great video online of someone like everyone, you know, who's Trying to say it's not that bad. And talking about, oh, the cameos and the friend is like, well, yeah, was it a good movie? But, yeah, they had a cam, and Sandler's the best, but was it a good movie? But. And just. He's always just nice to everyone, and was it a good. Anyway, so I rewatched the original, and I still just died at everything. The entire movie. It just. It still worked so well. And it just made me mad again that they even made a sequel. But I get why they did it. Finally. I have to explain 1980s movies to my daughter because we watched Karate Kid this week. We're still on our sports kick. And she's like. She liked it. But she's like, why? What's with, like, the cringy music in the montages and the. There was just parts of 80s movies that you just have to get over the cringe. And she's like, why did. Why was this. Some of this stuff so cringy? And I was like, that's just. That's the 80s. They didn't know any better. No one knew any better.

[Michael Batnik]

I mean, the 80s is such a long time ago for a child. It's like. It's like talking to us about the 60s when we were kids.

[Ben Carlson]

But she's a farmland. But she still liked it enough where she wants to watch the second and the third one. So did you see any movies this week? I see nothing in here for you.

[Michael Batnik]

I watch Friendship.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm surprised. So you liked it?

[Michael Batnik]

I did. I enjoyed it. I'm not. Listen, it is a very particular cup of tea. So I'm not, like, flabbergasted that you didn't like it. I understand. Exactly.

[Ben Carlson]

It's like people who like to drink sambuca or something like.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, come on. It's not like that.

[Ben Carlson]

I know. I don't know. I'm saying some people like it. Most people don't.

[Michael Batnik]

So Robin is getting very fed up with my Godfather obsession.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

Because. Because I rewatched the first one that last night. She walked in, and I was watching Godfather too. She goes, oh, no, no, no, no. And she turned it right off.

[Ben Carlson]

You have to do back to back. That's what I do.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, I have to finish Godfather, too. And then I have to watch the Offer because I finished the Godfather audiobook. And then that will come. That will conclude. And I listen to the rewatchables.

[Ben Carlson]

Obviously, I like the offer. It was. The offer was too long, but I liked it.

[Michael Batnik]

That'll conclude my Godfather experience.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. Grant.

[Michael Batnik]

But, yeah, I am. I am pretty dry. No TV shows, which, you know, it. It's enough already. I could use a break.

[Ben Carlson]

It's. It's a. It's a good break. All right. Grand potential T shirts at I don't. Shop.com. check out the unlock. Do you have another live show this week?

[Michael Batnik]

I do. I'm talking to Wes. So, Wes Gray launch. Thank you, Ben. We have a channel for advice on YouTube. Wes Gray launched their 351 exchange ETF to rousing success. $450 million launch. Unbelievable.

[Ben Carlson]

Tax Alpha is so hot right now.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, it really is.

[Ben Carlson]

Speaking of which, we talked to Alex Morris for talk. Your book.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, I don't know. This is not Tax Alpha. This is like diversification, arbitrage, I would say.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. Tax arbitrage. Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

Tax Avoidance.

[Ben Carlson]

Legal. Email us animalspiritscompoundnews.com thanks, everyone for listening. Appreciate it as always. Love your emails. Talk to you next time.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay?