When Genius Failed, Again (EP. 476)

Summary

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Animal Spirits Podcast: "When Genius Failed, Again" (EP. 476)

Date: August 5, 2026
Hosts: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson

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Overview

This episode centers on the spectacular rise and fall of hedge fund Situational Awareness, led by young AI savant Leopold Aschenbrenner. The hosts reflect on the parallels with the legendary collapse of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) in the '90s, examining how intelligence, leverage, and market euphoria drive cycles of hubris and disaster. They also tackle themes of retail speculation, market resiliency, behavioral finance, and cultural commentary from AI to nostalgia movies.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Wild Ride of Summer 2026 Markets

• July Market Volatility: July was one of the "most fun, fascinating, interesting market months" in recent years (01:06). Despite minimal S&P 500 movement (-0.1%), massive shifts occurred beneath the surface.
• Major Events: Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft announced blowout earnings, Meta (Facebook) whipsawed, and a dramatic semiconductor blow-up unfolded, triggered by Situational Awareness (03:01).

2. Situational Awareness Hedge Fund Implosion

a. Leopold Aschenbrenner: The "Wonderkid"

• 24/25-year-old prodigy, Columbia valedictorian at 15, "IQ of a billion" (04:39).
• Labeled "the AI Nostradamus" after a widely circulated manifesto that raised massive funds. Backed by top VCs and tech luminaries (06:17).

b. Fund Trajectory and Blowup

• Started less than two years ago, amassed over $45B in AUM after an astronomical AI-focused run, especially with an early bet on Anthropic (12:23).
• Employed extreme leverage ("allegedly...four to five times leverage," 09:55), exposing the fund to catastrophic risk.
• Parallel drawn to LTCM: Genius alone, without risk management or humility, leads to ruin. “It’s always leverage. Which is why 'When Genius Failed' should have been required reading.” — Michael (09:32)

c. The Aftermath

• On July 24 sent investors a bullish letter; by July 30, forced to liquidate the entire public levered book to Citadel at a 10% discount (12:23).
• Despite a 70% mark-to-market drawdown in July—and spectacular losses—fund remains up 80% YTD due to Anthropic (16:24).
• Discussion on whether this counts as a “bailout”: Citadel “stepped in” to absorb positions, preventing wider market contagion, but hosts debate the semantics (20:28).

d. Broader Lessons and Market Impact

• Classical market cycle: Each generation relearns the lesson that intelligence and leverage can be fatal without situational (self) awareness—a word dripping with irony given the fund’s name (10:28, 15:27).
• “The story of situational awareness is in some way an old Wall Street lesson learned by every generation and then forgotten by the next.” — Rob Copeland (15:27)
• Market speculation and excesses (DRAM, meme stocks) were washed out, while broader indices hit all-time highs (34:14).

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3. Leverage, Psychology, and Markets

• The Lure of Leverage: “There’s a difference between getting the macro thesis right and being a good portfolio manager...The only way you blow up a fund is with leverage.” (09:05)
• Behavioral Angle: Investors become addicted to gains—“cocaine brain” where euphoria and leverage feed each other (13:21).

4. Market Resiliency Amid Chaos

• Despite “two wars, gas price spikes, sticky inflation, rising bond yields, hedge fund blowups, software, and semi stock crashes,” markets reached new all-time highs (23:29).
• Anecdote: Ben observes Chicago’s packed bars and restaurants, humorously contrasting macroeconomic anxiety (“the 30-year’s at 5.3%!”) with real-world optimism (24:40).
• The market’s strength amid rotating sector weakness refutes doom narratives.

5. Speculation, Retail Flows, and Behavioral Cycles

• Retail Flows: Massive inflows into thematic ETFs (notably DRAM), but poor dollar-weighted results as investors chase performance late (35:23).
• Degenerate Behavior: Recurring cycles of new “hot” retail speculation—now punished swiftly, contrasting with the meme stock mania of 2021 (34:14).

6. Bubble Parallels & Lessons

• The hosts connect current excesses in fintech/AI stocks to prior bubbles, reinforcing that markets always find new vehicles for euphoria and subsequent pain.

7. Macro and Policy Sidebars

• Fed & Rates: Skepticism about the contemporary relevance of the Fed outside of crisis periods—“the Fed is astrology for finance bros” (41:57).
• Discussion on the normalization of the treasury yield curve and skepticism of “debt crisis” worries, though high mortgage rates remain a real constraint (45:26).
• Segment on South Korea’s market levered retail collapse: entire stock index down 40%, 3.5% of the population margin-called (32:22).

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8. A.I., Tech, and Human Connection

• Debate over AI’s role in daily life. Michael ridicules a suggestion to turn kids’ schedules into a daily AI-generated podcast: “No, no, no, no, no. I’m not turning my child’s calendar into a podcast.” (52:45)
• Ben reflects that hands-on, physical work may become a crucial source of satisfaction in an AI-dominated future (53:11).

9. Market Structure: ETF Flows & Crypto

• ETF Flows: 2026 is breaking all records for ETF inflows, especially into equity and AI-related ETFs (37:27).
• Crypto: Despite ETF outflows and price stagnation, hosts see little media “dunking”—suggesting retail apathy has replaced drama (58:42).

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10. Pop Culture and Nostalgia Markets

• Movies: Debate over the success of "Spider-Man" (#11 in the franchise) and the nostalgia-fueled box office. Ben: “It just pains me a little bit that Spider-Man is going to be the biggest movie of all time. It shouldn’t be the 11th Spider-Man.” (66:00)
• Bull Market in Nostalgia: 90s trends, live events, and retro content booming (69:28).

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Fund Leverage:
  “It’s always leverage. Which is why I mentioned 'When Genius Failed' should have been required reading. It’s not about how smart you are. You can’t blow up a fund. And the only way you blow up a fund is with leverage.” — Michael (09:32)
• On the Cycle of Genius:
  “The story of situational awareness is in some way an old Wall Street lesson learned by every generation and then forgotten by the next.” — Rob Copeland, quoted by Michael (15:27)
• On Market Euphoria:
  “When you see the numbers go from 9 billion to 20 to 45 in three months, you feel invincible. You feel like nothing can stop you...” — Ben (13:21)
• On Current Bull Market Dynamics:
  “Don’t let degenerate behavior distract you...that sort of behavior is never going away. And I love to see that in this bull market, a lot of that behavior is getting punished.” — Michael (34:14)
• On Retail Investing:
  “Average investor lost money in the [DRAM] fund. Investors lost $1.6 billion because they came in so late and then it crashed.” — Ben (35:59)
• On AI Overreach:
  “No, no, no, no, no, I’m not turning my child's calendar into a podcast.” — Michael (52:45)
• On the Resiliency of Markets:
  “All time highs again. The stock market is just so impressive, when you think about everything that's been thrown at it.” — Ben (80:08)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introductions & Market Recap: 01:08–03:01
• Situational Awareness/Leopold Story Begins: 03:58
• Bubble Parallels to LTCM: 05:41
• Discussion of Leverage and Portfolio Management: 09:04–13:21
• Blowup Aftermath—Investor Letter and Liquidation: 12:23–14:49
• Behavioral Finance (“Cocaine brain”): 13:21
• Market Resiliency & Bullish Sentiment: 23:29–25:47
• Retail Flows & ETF Mania: 35:23–38:40
• Fed, Macro, Yield Curve: 41:57–46:31
• Speculation and Meme Stocks: 34:14–35:23
• AI in Daily Life (Altman Tweet): 51:43–53:11
• Crypto Market Malaise: 58:42
• Pop Culture/Nostalgia Movies: 64:45–69:43
• Final Thoughts & Market Lessons: 80:08–80:50

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Additional Notes & Tone

• The conversation is bantery, self-aware, and combines sharp market analysis with relatable humor and pop culture references.
• Both hosts blend market history with behavioral psychology, highlighting both humility and awe at the market’s unpredictability.
• The tone is conversational, laced with jokes, honest self-critique, and humility in the face of market complexity.

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For listeners:
This episode is a must-listen for anyone fascinated by the ever-repeating dance between genius, leverage, market euphoria, and ultimate humility—plus, it’s packed with behavioral insights and sharp commentary on everything from AI to nostalgia at the movies.

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Transcript

[A]

Foreign. Today's anal spurts is brought to you by Y Charts. When the markets feel uncomfortable, clients start asking the same question. Is now the right time to invest or should I wait? The most impactful answer advisors can give is clear data on the importance of long term investing. Don't start this process from scratch. Y Charts has you covered. Their top 10 visuals deck offers ready to use charts and make these exact client conversations easier. The deck visualizes strategies like the power of staying invested and the impact of withdrawal rates in retirement. Everything is fully customizable, easy to brand with your firm's logo and constantly updated as markets change so you're never sharing something outdated. Click the link in the Show Notes to connect with the Wide Charts team. Get your copy of top 10 visuals and receive 20% off your first wide charts. Professional subscription through Animal Spirits offer, valid for new customers only. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. This is going to be a long episode. We've got 40 pages in the doc, which is on the high side. I feel like last show was a month and a half ago.

[B]

A lot has happened.

[A]

A lot, a lot has happened in the markets, outside the markets. Spider Man. Holy. We'll get to that later in the show. A lot of ins and outs, a lot of what have yous. All right, let's start with the. The stock market. July was a wild month. Would you say then that July was the most fun, fascinating, interesting market month that we've had in. I don't know, pick a time, couple of years. I mean, it's been a minute. It's been. This is, this is a good one.

[B]

I'm having fun. We've, we've had some exciting markets this decade. This decade has just been fantastic for stock market entertainment value.

[A]

The last two, like notable months were not that much fun. It was March when the war started. Definitely not fun.

[B]

Oh, then prior to that liberation day,

[A]

probably part of that was April 2025. Also definitely not fun.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, you're right. The stock market, it just is more entertaining than it was in the past. And I don't think you could convince me otherwise because the speed at which stuff happens now and the amount of sheer money moving around and we're also in a technological innovation boom. And yeah, there's a lot going on.

[A]

And here's what the funny thing is. We got. Go ahead.

[B]

The s and P500 for the month was what, down 10 basis points or something. It's like if you looked at it and you lived in a cave, you'd go, eh, boring. Month. Fair.

[A]

No, not fair. Because nobody does that. So completely not fair. All right, so in the last week alone we had.

[B]

There are some people who are just DIY investing. Send it in, forget it. And they're not. Pay attention.

[A]

Nobody who's listening to this podcast is not paying attention.

[B]

That's true. I'm just saying, those people do exist.

[A]

Sure, fine. Okay.

[B]

They're not as entertained as us, but they're probably happier.

[A]

I'm very happy. I'm having a great time. It's been seven weeks since the Knicks won the finals. I'm still riding high. I'm having a great, great time, Ben. Okay, so in the last week alone we had.

[B]

You have a whole closet full of Nick's gear now, because that's literally all you wear.

[A]

You know what's funny this morning? So I've got. So I've got. This is my favorite Nick shirt. In New York or nowhere. Can't see it. Well, I'll lift it up. Not that anybody cares, but, like, this is a good one. This is a real good one. I said to Robin this morning, hey, where's my Knick shirt? And she literally said, are you joking? Which Nick shirt? What are you talking about?

[B]

Right?

[A]

Said my new one. All right, anyway, so we got Apple reported earnings. Amazon reported a blowout numbers. Microsoft reported blowout numbers. Facebook fell and then recovered. And we got a semiconductor blow up led by the story of the week and maybe the story of the year. A hedge fund called unironically named Situational Awareness.

[B]

I can't believe that's the name. I seriously cannot believe that's the name of the hedge fund. It's too. It's too perfect. Michael Lewis couldn't have written this any better. This kid, the just, he looks like central casting of a guy who would blow up a hedge fund. Just. He's young. It's the AI Boom. Like, this is. Seriously, Michael Lewis couldn't have written this any better.

[A]

So the story is as such, there is a kid named Leopold Aschenbrenner. Leopold grew up in. In Europe. And he's a wonder kid. Is it wonderkind?

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Okay. He's a wonder. Okay. That's a bizarre word. Is that. Is that like for young geniuses or what is it?

[B]

I suppose he is.

[A]

He's a young genius.

[B]

Yes. And he's 24, 25 years old, super

[A]

graduated, got into Columbia when he was 15. Valedictorian, like an IQ of a billion. And unfortunately for him and his investors, he never read a book that needs to be required reading. For anybody managing other people's money. When Genius failed. When Genius failed is the story of long term capital management. And actually it's funny how this lines up. We have a chart later in the show. By the way, Ben, I listened to our, I listened to our podcast last week and I apologize to some of the listeners. This is a very visual heavy show at times more so than others. And I think I take for granted the fact that everybody is watching along with us. They're not. But now we are releasing the video on Spotify at 4am Whenever the podcast goes up. So if you are listening, but we are referencing a chart that you think would be interesting. Open your phone, take it out and you can look, look along with us.

[B]

Look at YouTube. Hank. I just want to, I just want to give a few things about him personally I think that are worth mentioning.

[A]

Wait, can I finish my thought? Yes, I know I, I, I interrupted myself but the point that I was making about long term capital management and the, the visual was bespoke. Has a chart showing. They said it's crazy how the situational awareness blow up is right in line with the long term capital management blow up on the Netscape Chat GPT timeline. So they've been charting this for the past couple of months and it's wild. I shouldn't say it's wild because you

[B]

can make lines fit, but.

[A]

Yeah, but they're both going up into the right. But it is interesting that this has happened. So. Okay, Ben, back to you. Go say a few things.

[B]

But this, the whole thing about when genius failed. The other good one is the smartest guys in the room about Enron and the reason that people like this will always get money from people. If you're an intelligent person and you're super smart, people will throw stuff at you. People will give you one. This guy will totally get a second chance. He probably shouldn't at this age. People should probably go, all right, we're gonna give this kid some time. He's 24 years older or 25. He had no professional investing experience when he launched his AI focused firm Situational Awareness less than two years ago with a few hundred million dollars. He already manages more money than Bill Ackman or Dan Loeb. Okay, this is this. He got fired from OpenAI for letting go of sensitive information.

[A]

Okay, that's neither here nor there. That's whatever.

[B]

But just I don't know the fact that he got fired from OpenAI but he's ridiculously smart. He has a high IQ and if you have someone with a high IQ who is a little quirky. He obviously looks very quirky. Some of the videos make him look very quirky. People are going to give him money. He wrote a manifesto that helped him raise the money and that's where he came up with the situational awareness stuff. He's got all these huge investors, the Collison brothers and people at Ed Mehta and Sam Altman. And he's married to the chief of staff at Anthropic. And the story just. It. It kind of. This is a truth is stranger than fiction kind of deal. This is my favorite part.

[A]

Wait, why is this truth is stranger than friction?

[B]

Because you could, you couldn't. This is central. You could not come up with a better character than this if you wanted to make it up. This guy is just a. This guy is a perfect character for a young person in the AI Boom. Who blew up a hedge fund. Right? The pictures of everything, it's just, it's perfect. He was getting married in Northern California. The Day is Fun blew up. And this is my favorite part. There would be a pre wedding colloquium to discuss ideas and panels and breakout sessions. They were going to have breakouts.

[A]

I don't believe that.

[B]

Okay, I, I kind of do. I don't know.

[A]

Hold on.

[B]

All right, this is in the Wall Street Journal. Well, they're going to.

[A]

So what? Okay, so what? What? There was. There was breakout sessions at this kid's wedding. Give me a break, all right?

[B]

It's all believable to me.

[A]

So that part is believe. I mean, I suppose anything is possible,

[B]

but what happened here is totally believable. That his fund grew so big so massively because he made all these great AI bets. He, he laid out this 10 year vision for AI and he said this is what gonna happen. A lot of people said, oh my gosh, this guy is. He's like. I think Tim Ferriss called him the AI Nostradamus, which was obviously the kiss of death right there. But he made all his investments.

[A]

Hang on, hang on. He nailed it.

[B]

Like I just said, he laid it out and he followed it and boom, nailed it. Guess what happened? He put too much leverage on. So there's a difference between getting the macro thesis right and being a good portfolio manager. This guy is obviously not a good portfolio manager.

[A]

Correct.

[B]

That's the problem. He could. This is why, I think why someone like this is way more well suited for venture capital where you can't get mar. You can't get margin called in a venture capital investment. The reason he's up so much still. And we'll talk about the numbers is because he put money in Anthropic early and that that's powered the gains of his fund. So all he had to have was that one good investment in Anthropic and all the other blowups that he did because he five time leverage didn't matter. But the leverage is the thing. As always. This always gets people.

[A]

It's always leverage. It's always leverage. Which is why I mentioned he, he's one Genius failed. Should have been required reading. It's not about how smart you are. You can't blow up a fund. And the only way that you blow up a fund is with leverage. You and I laugh at the two X ETFs. Apparently allegedly this kid was running at four times leverage. So four or five.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

$4 of exposure for every dollar that he had. And this unwind brought the market down with it.

[B]

I, I, a lot of people said there's no way that this guy's fund was big enough to bring down the market. I totally believe people are getting ahead of this.

[A]

There was someone, it might, it might not just, just, just be him, but he was part of blowing the names up to the upside. Yeah, and of course he wasn't, he wasn't it because the half a trillion dollars of notional exposure and the double levered ETFs like he was, he was part of the story. Not the entire story.

[B]

Yeah, but, but he, his fund marked the bottom for now, right? These stocks all bottomed and went up hugely after Citadel came in and shorted up there. There was a story about when genius failed. When John Merriweather, the really smart guy from Salon Brothers who ran it. And it's funny, this is the problem with being too smart though is that you get so overconfident in your abilities that you think, oh, of course I can lever this thing up five times. Or Long term Capital Management was way more than that, wasn't it? 10 or 20 times. What was the number of long term. I can't even remember. It was, it was way higher because they were doing fixed income arbitrage. Right. But someone said to Meriwether, the guy who ran that fund, he said, my fund is down 50%. But that's okay, we still have a few billion dollars. And the guy said, no, no, no, no. You don't realize you're down 50%. There's sharks in the water now, you're toast. You're, you're, you're done. And that was the first time he got scared. And that's the thing with intelligence, is that you can get so overconfident. That's why the people who are the smartest ones in the world to me have a relatively high iq, but also have actual situational awareness or like self awareness and they have common sense. And obviously this, this kid, maybe he'll figure out someday he didn't have that yet. Like it's, it's, it's beyond iron. This is like Linus Morissette territory of the fact that his fund was named. Situational awareness. I can't believe it. I just can't believe it. It's too perfect.

[A]

So a lot of people dancing on the graves. I mean that's just what happens in this world. Not just in the world of finance,

[B]

but because he was getting a lot of accolades too. So when that happens on the other side of it, of course he's going to get stomped.

[A]

So I think he was up at his peak like 2700% since inception. I mean absolutely eyewatering numbers, like the type of numbers that you don't see. So what ended up happening is Mark Rubenstein has a great slide. He shows that the assets were up 5x in three months and got in 30 days. So fund assets, March 26, that's a

[B]

great chart right there.

[A]

March 2026 was $9.3 billion. June 2026, 20 plus billion dollars. July 2026, $45 billion. This kid was on a heater the likes of which we have really seen before. Then on July 24th he sends out an investor letter framing the sell off as a buying opportunity. And then by July 30, just a couple of trading days later, they sold the entire public levered book to citadel at a 10% discount. Now there's people saying that all of the gains in the fund came from anthropic and that all the public stocks went to zero. He was actually underwater. My understanding of the situation is that's not true. In the letter he said that they still have. Now he was long all of the AI names and short like the adobes of the world. So it blew up reverse. Yeah, it blew up both ways. The alligator jaws.

[B]

This is why leverage is so, is so detrimental. Because a lot of those stocks are still up a ton from when he bought them. Right. Sandisk is still up over a thousand percent in the last year. If he would have not used leverage, just held these funds. Oh shoot. We're in a 30% drawdown, but we can survive. The thing is, when you See, the numbers go from 9 billion to 20 to 45 in three months. You feel invincible. You feel like nothing can stop you. I'm sure my favorite anecdote from youm Money in your Brain by Jason Zweigen. I use it in my book Risk Reward. I called it what happens when you get gains like this is you get cocaine brain. And Jason Zweig said they did these studies on your brain that show that there is no difference between the brain activity of someone who's high on cocaine or morphine and someone who's making money on their investments. It's the same in that with him. That's why he took more leverage, because he needed a bigger hit each time to keep it going. That's why you have to use leverage when you get that size if you want to keep growing at that same rate, which obviously there was no risk management whatsoever.

[A]

Mark Rubenstein also astutely said the. The perfect number of blowups for a hedge fund manager is one. And I think what he means is that everybody needs to get punched in the face really badly one time. Now, if you have two or three blowups, come on, no more chances. But everybody gets one mulligan. And this is a bad one. But the fund is still up 80%. At least that's what the letter said.

[B]

It's funny. Yeah, John Arnold said that too. He said, my philosophy when I used to hire traders is that the optimum number of pass blowups is one. Okay, so it's kind of like, you're right, this is your mulligan. It's funny. My kids and I in the driveway, we always do free throw contests. Like best out of five, best out of 10. And I always tell my kids, I get one mulligan and they'll miss one. I get one more. I start on a make, though, so he can't have that, right? No starting on a make anymore.

[A]

Here's a great line from Rob Copeland, who wrote the book on. What did he write the book on?

[B]

He wrote the Ray Dalio book.

[A]

Okay. Was it called the Fund?

[B]

I can't remember the name of it. I think so.

[A]

So Rob wrote in the New York Times, the story of situational awareness is in some way an old Wall street lesson learned by every generation and then forgotten by the next.

[B]

It's true. It's perfect. Every. There's this idea that you can, like, learn about history by reading books and studying the past and learning from mistakes of others. And that's great. I'm sure, like 2% of the population can do this. Most people just need to pay their tuition to the market gods by themselves. Everyone needs to find out whether they can be a stock picker like Warren Buffett. Everyone has that itch in them, can I do it? And then you figure out you can't, and then you move out. Like, everyone has to try this to, I'm going to time the market. I can do it. Everyone has to do this stuff themselves once. And obviously it's the same with big hedge fund managers. I wonder how much of a lockup there is because some of this is in private money. I haven't read much about that because you said the numbers.

[A]

So I'm guessing that what's remaining is 95% anthropic and whatever private investment he

[B]

has because it says the month to date performance was down almost 70%, but the year to date performance is still up 80%. I think anthropic is up 400% this year. So I'm guessing that's a lot of it. Like the fact that this, for most people, the fact that this kid got them into Anthropic was probably worth the investment in the fund, don't you think? In many ways, like, hey, investing in this fund got us, got us access, access to Anthropic. That's good enough.

[A]

The investors in this fund, like this was a velvet rope type of, type of hedge fund. You had to be somebody to get in or know somebody to get in. These are not, this is not like retail money that's going to demand their money back. Like, I'm sure, if anything, I'm not sure. I would suspect that if his investors were going to demand their money back or give him more, they would probably give more.

[B]

Yeah, he's gonna, he's gonna get a second chance. This is what we do in America. We give people like this a second chance because they're smart.

[A]

Well, hold on. But the first chance is not over like the fund is. The fund didn't wind down. He's still alive.

[B]

I know, but this is the kind of thing that you would think investors would go, all right, get my money back, but they can't because there's a lot of private investments. Right. That's why, again, this guy should be a VC investor. He should not be a public market investor. I almost. Anyway, I'm willing to, I'm willing to say that he's not going to be a successful public market investor if that's his risk manager.

[A]

Yeah, nobody is.

[B]

What do you mean nobody is?

[A]

There are very few, very, very few name, name brands and publications, they all blow up.

[B]

Every one of them.

[A]

I. Dude, I wrote. I wrote this post in 2015, I think. Like, who's the who? I did this silly post where I wrote, I did like a clip art of every famous financier, every famous investor by the year that they were born. And I put it on a chart of the dao.

[B]

Oh, that's right. To show when the legendary ones were. Yeah, that's right. There hasn't been any since, really. Right.

[A]

I showed it by their birth year. And the most recent one was like Einhorn and Cliff Asness. And they were born the. They were born in the 60s.

[B]

But Einhorn got his comeuppance too, by betting into tech stocks for years.

[A]

But this is my point. Like there are no. There are very, very few.

[B]

Every one that we crown eventually. That's why Buffett is so impressive. And the thing is, he did use leverage. He used it leverage in the most intelligent way possible though. And how come no one has learned from him? None of these people have learned from him. None of them. It's kind of amazing.

[A]

Well, Einhorn tried to start an insurance company. I think Ackman did it too. Anyway, the market is like an ocean and eventually washes everybody away.

[B]

My joke a couple weeks ago was that, you know, when the tide recedes, ask me to find who's in swimming nude. There's a lot of nude beaches in South Korea. How's that? The thing is, the market these days, because it moves so fast, everyone feels like a genius or an idiot. And it can happen in like a week.

[A]

So I've never been to a. Have you ever been to a naked beach in Europe?

[B]

I think I did, yeah. I mean, it was just a lot of chicks with armpit hair though. So it wasn't a lot of bush. Yeah, no, we did a. When I was in Vienna, we went to a water park and chicks are going topless down the water slides. It's just normal in Europe. That's a thing. So I wrote this on July 29th. Six out of the seven, MAG7 are in sizable drawdowns right now. So six out of the seven, we're down 15% or more. In Microsoft, it's down 30%. These things getting killed two days later. And this Apple was at all time highs. Two days later, Apple was down almost 15%. Microsoft was up almost 20%. Meta was down 10%, Amazon was up 20% and they've moved more since then. I think Microsoft is 30% off the lows or something. The moves that happen in These stocks now that can make you feel like you pound your chest and be like, I'm the smartest investor in the world. And then you feel like an absolute dumbass a week later. That's what this market does now. That's what. So semiconductor stocks, people felt again invincible. And then they crash in an instant. And then in one day, after Leopold's fund got. I don't know, I guess we're still splitting hairs on whether it's a bailout or not. Bailout?

[A]

No.

[B]

Got bailed out by clip by Citadel.

[A]

No, no, no, no. A bailout is like margin call.

[B]

I think you can. I think it's borderline bailout. After that happened, sandisk was up 25%. We had these stocks up in one day. 15, 20, 25%. It's really amazing.

[A]

It was not a bailout. I'm sorry. That's like a. That's like a government. That's a governmental term. That's like taxpayer term.

[B]

Okay. If Citadel didn't step in, what would have happened?

[A]

What do you mean? They would have got marching called.

[B]

Okay. And that would have cascaded things even more probably. Right. I think Citadel stepping in was the thing that really stopped the flow, though.

[A]

Yeah. I just think the bailout is a special sort of term.

[B]

I don't know. I think it's kind of a bailout. What's the thing from Warren Pies here? The Leopold liquidation pushed semiconductor single stock volatility to 75%. This is only the third time it has reached this level. The other two instances were March 2020 and April 2025. We're in a new world of moves and volatility. We just are.

[A]

So Todd Sona has this chart, this table that shows the year, the gain of the s and P500 and the top 10 or the top 25 contributions to the year to date gain. Right. You know, I'm talking about.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And six of the last eight years. I'm sorry, six of the eight years at the top of the list where the top 10 stocks contributed the biggest to the overall index has happened since 2020.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

We are in a. We are in a new world. Obviously, historical data points have been rendered not completely useless, but mostly useless. So the type of data points that I love, that I've said a million times on the show are behavioral based. Okay. So for example, I love stuff like this. Jason gfor tweeted the NASDAQ 100 lurched right word from a three month low to the best gain in three months during an uptrend. So to Me, that sort of data point is human psychology. And I don't care if that happens in 2026 or 1949. Like that is human behavior. And human behavior is immutable. You would you agree with that?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

All right, so the one constant, so, so Jason says the April 2000 signal sucked after three months, but otherwise, otherwise three months later, it's pretty damn good. Positive 86% of the time. Again, the data point is very clear. You're in an uptrend, stocks are at a three month low and then they have their best gain in their best gain in three months. So that's like, oh, so that's, you're, you're in a bull market, you get a shakeout, right? Because there's bad news. Oh, what's going on? Is it bull market over and then rip, best game in three months, everybody back in the boat. And everybody gets back in the boat because the fears were proven to be nothing more than fears.

[B]

So we are recording this pre market and on a pre market basis. After everything that's going on, two wars, gas price spike, inflation is sticky, long bond yields are rising, hedge fund blow ups, software crash, semi crash, new Fed chair that everyone apparently hates. We're gonna get to that later. And we're back at all time highs. And when I poo poo stuff like rising bond yields and government debt crises. Maybe I put too much faith in the stock market sometimes, but this is why I don't worry. Because the stock market's not worried. And maybe that's naive of me, but when I poo poo all these risks and people say, oh, you're blind, just wait. This is why the stock market doesn't care, because corporations are still making money. I made this joke on Twitter. I was walking around the other night and every bar and restaurant as far as the eye could see. My wife and I went to Chicago and on a Tuesday night we walk around the river. We went to dinner and every restaurant is full of people on a Tuesday night. We do the river walk afterwards for a nice little stroll after dinner down to the lake. Every bar is packed with people and I wanted to just grab somebody by the shoulders and shake them and go, don't you know the 30 years at 5.3%? What are you doing, you idiot?

[A]

Right, the 30 years at 5.3 and you're drinking an IPA.

[B]

You're drinking a 19, you're drinking a 19 cocktail.

[A]

Ben, Josh and I went out to. We're at a dinner the other night and somebody was asking us or Talking to us about the semiconductor blow up or whatever. And I was like, listen, I. What do I know? I still think it's like very, very early in the story and I think the shortage of computer and all that sort of stuff is a real thing. And he said to me, he's like, yeah, but you're always bullish or something like that. He's like, I don't know if he said always. He's like, yeah, but you're bullish. And I was like, it sort of stopped me in my tracks a little bit. Like, huh, Is that how this person another. Think of me as a market commentator. And I feel like I call balls and strikes. The market starts to go lower in a. Because it's responded to things that are like bad. And you've been, yes, my. I will. My views will change alongside the market. But the market is so clearly telling you that this is a bull market. To your point, I think we said this last week, like we lost the Max seven, we lost the semiconductors and the Equid is an all time high and ripping. Like what.

[B]

How.

[A]

What are you bearish about?

[B]

Right? When the Mag 7 lost, people got. Ah, well, it's just semiconductors holding up the market now. Then semiconductors crash, the market's still up. It's like, okay, what's your next X thing? But that's. It's always been the case though that the bearish argument just sounds smarter and the bulls like you're just a naive idiot.

[A]

Yeah, we sound stupid, right?

[B]

And at year 18 of a bull market, just wait.

[A]

I respect risk more than most. I'm. I'm terrified when the market falls. Right. So like I don't, I don't view myself as.

[B]

And I, I keep saying this is going to end badly. It just is. Everything's and Tom Cruise cocktail. Everything ends badly or it wouldn't end. It is at some point. But enjoy the ride while it's here. Okay. Golden Silver.

[A]

Are you in on the new Tom Cruise movie, Digger?

[B]

Ooh, I don't know. I'm cautiously pessimistic. I saw the preview. I have faith in my guy, tc But I don't know, man. I don't know.

[A]

It's a big swing.

[B]

It's a big swing. We'll see. I give him credit for trying something besides a 12th impossible movie. Goldman Sachs had this good piece. I pulled a few good chart. They have really good charts. So they say tech equity weight is now above tech bubble levels, which some people look at go, oh my gosh. But like duh this should be way higher. Technology should be a huge part of the market. Of course it should be way higher.

[A]

This doesn't scare me at all.

[B]

These companies are much, way better than. All right. We were talking about, we were talking about this the other day offline. I think 6040 portfolio bonds have just stunk this, this decade. I think you talked about this last week. Like bonds for the last five years returns have been, you got nothing. Goldman says they have a rolling 3 year 6040 portfolio and says balanced portfolios have delivered strong returns in recent years. This is diversification in action. Bonds have stunk, stocks have done well. 6040 portfolio is up 12, 13, 14% per year in the last three years. It's done really well. That's diversification. That's why anyone who ever says 6040 is dead is trying to say diversification is dead and it's not going to die. This is interesting. 10 year rolling real returns, inflation adjusted. And this is 6040 portfolio and then the world portfolio. I think that's like everything they include like private markets and like the global, they try to build a global portfolio. Look at how high this. It looks high. But if you look back at, I don't know, it's not super above median or mean historically

[A]

just eyeballing it. No, it looks.

[B]

Yeah, right. There's been plenty of other times when this has been way higher. This is not something that jumps out at you.

[A]

Correct. If you showed this chart to somebody blindly, like not even a market person just said you like just comment on this chart. Is there anything that jumps out at you? They would say no.

[B]

Yeah, it's on the uptrend. That's it.

[A]

All right, let's talk more about investor behavior stuff. So great chart from Bloomberg shows the Goldman Sachs basket of retail favorite stocks. And this was the worst monthly performance since 2023. How about that? So what's in there? I don't know for sure because it's proprietary. But I'm guessing Palantir is in there and I'm guessing a lot of the Mag 7 names are in there.

[B]

Micron Sandisk.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

The funny thing is this used to be Goldman Sachs basket of favorite hedge fund stocks. Now it's retail. Remember that's what they used to show. And I'm guessing my guess would be if you took the basket of retail stocks and the basket of hedge fund stocks, they're exactly the same.

[A]

I think you're. Yeah, I think you're right. I think you're probably right. All right, so on. So Gungeon from The Wall Street Journal tweeted this. So she tweeted this on Wednesday. So this happened last Tuesday. So retail sold a net $243 million of single stocks yesterday, meaning last Tuesday, the largest one day outflow since the COVID crash. Holy shit.

[B]

So that was the mini capitulation because the next day the market bounced, right?

[A]

I think so.

[B]

So I think that was like the. Okay, interesting.

[A]

Listen to Apple's earnings call. It's Tim Cook's last one, so I want to listen. They never say anything interesting. They didn't say anything interesting this time either. But I wanted to listen. And they were talking about the strength of the iPhone 17 because of their AI capabilities. And I got to tell you, AI can't do shit for Apple. You can't do anything. It's still. When I talk to text, I know there's been a common gripe of mine, but if I say nicks, it writes next. And I have to say like, no, Nicks. And it literally cannot get it right. I was in. I was in upstate New York over the weekend. We took Logan to rookie day, which is he's going to sleepaway camp next year. So we spent the day there. So we drop him off and I went to Hyde park, which I've always wanted to visit. Hyde park is famously the home of fdr and there is a Vanderbilt Mansion down the road. So we had nothing but time. Plenty of time. So we took a drive there. Lovely, by the way. Great time.

[B]

Very historic of you.

[A]

Well, you know, I'm a big history guy. And I took a bunch of pictures and I wanted to send them to my dad and I should be able to say to Apple, hey, Siri, send all of the pictures from Hyde park to my dad. And it can't even do. I mean, it can't do. Isn't that basic shit?

[B]

It's hard to believe. I had to change my thing, my wife. I had to go from Courtney to wife in my phone. Cause I would say call Courtney and it would always call Corey. Or it would do some other name and I'd say call Courtney and it wouldn't work. So I had to change it to wife. So just as wife in my phone now. Because I said. Because that's what. That's what it gets.

[A]

It's no better than the automated services that you're like, you know, when Larry David is yelling at the in curb,

[B]

it really is hard to believe. And guess what? The stock market doesn't care. No, we care. All right, let's talk about South Korea. The, the Cosby Index at one point was up, I don't know, I think it had doubled for the year. And then in five weeks, I mean it just, it's a semiconductor trade. But in five weeks the entire market, which is I think the sixth biggest stock market in the world, collapsed 40% and it's still today up almost 50% on the year. So we got a 40% drop in five weeks and it's still up 50% on the year.

[A]

Unbelievable.

[B]

It really is again one of the biggest stock markets in the world. And but so that,

[A]

so they got liquidated.

[B]

Yes. And the number was three and a half percent of the entire population of South Korea got a margin call. Pretty high number. That's what I read.

[A]

All right, so they have a great chart showing the one day change and then they show individual investors net buy value for Cosby Index and then they show foreign investors. So individual investors got liquidated and foreign investors bought the shit out of the diploma. It is, by the way, It's Tuesday morning, 9:38 and the S&P 500 has gapped higher, meaning it opened higher to a new all time high.

[B]

Ding, ding, ding.

[A]

Meaning the highest the stock market has ever been in the history of mankind.

[B]

Isn't these people getting margin called and Leo getting margin called? This is the thing as a stock market investor you just have, survival is the key. Just never get yourself in the position where you're a for seller. That's like, it sounds so simple and people just can't help themselves.

[A]

Ben, one of the things that I've been saying over the last couple of years is one of the things that people use to dismiss the bull market or cast doubt is all of the degenerate behavior. Oh, look at people buying stocks and leverage and they're buying quantum computing and whatever the next hot thing is. And they use that as a way to dismiss the validity of everything else that's happening in the market. And I understand that impulse, right? It makes sense like, oh, there's so much speculation that's going to end badly and it's going to end soon. I get it. And what I've said to that is, listen, we live in a world of 247 trading of hype. Everything happens with hyperspeed, with the message boards and people able to colonize on stocks way quicker than have in the past. Do not let that behavior distract you because that is never going away.

[B]

Right?

[A]

That sort of degenerate behavior is with us literally forever. Unless there is another Great Depression, people will continue to speculate it's only accelerating. Robin had said that like it's only accelerating the speculation. Okay. So I really love to see the fact that in this bull market a lot of that behavior is getting punished. Not just in the double levered semiconductor trade, but all of the meme stocks. All of the, we have our, our degenerate Dow stocks, which is basically a basket of meme stocks and they got cut in half. So while the legitimate bull market is reaching new all time highs, the degenerate bull market is in shambles. Yeah, how, how could you not love to see that?

[B]

Yeah, this is not like the meme stock stuff with GameStop back in the day. That was AMC and GameStop. That was so stupid. Right? This is, this is different now. People have kind of learned the retail crowd, it's different. All right, this, this is interesting. Jeff Patak, a friend from Morningstar, behavior Gap is alive and well. So the, the dram. Etf. Dram.

[A]

Dram, right.

[B]

So he's saying since inception in April, it had 26 billion in net assets by the end of July. This is before the fall. I think the dram fell 30% or something, maybe 30 or 40%. He asked how did it get so big so fast? He said it gathered 26 billion in net inflows over that span, which is kind of crazy. But here's the thing. Over that time it had massive returns. So it has 26 billion in assets. 26 billion came in, but the fund earned 102% return over that time. So what does that mean?

[A]

What does it mean?

[B]

Average investor lost money in the fund. Investors lost $1.6 billion in DRAM because they came in so late and then it, then it crashed.

[A]

Is there something though? I understand how, I understand how like the math works. On average, it's a calculation that makes sense. But is there like something weird in that calculation that like makes it true but also not exactly true? Like true but misleading.

[B]

What this tells you is that investors did not take part in those huge gains they came in.

[A]

It tells you no, it tells you the average dollar didn't do well. It doesn't tell you like the median, the actual median investors experience tells you the average dollar.

[B]

Right, but it just tells you that. Look, if you look on the chart, most funds, for example, hold on as it peaked.

[A]

But for example, and I don't think this is the case, I'm just using this. If an advisor put this in their model portfolio, now I know it's 26 billion, it's a huge number. So that's not the case. But I think that some of these, sometimes these data can be factually accurate, but not telling the entire story. I don't think the average investor in DRAM lost money

[B]

could be on a dollar basis, of course, because so much money came in. That's the point. The money flows in. Same thing happened with, with ark. All the money flowed in after the performance had already been good and then it crashed.

[A]

Right.

[B]

We'll see.

[A]

More true. More true than not true. Maybe I'm nitpicking a little bit.

[B]

All right. You mentioned Todd Stone earlier. This is a crazy chart. Cumulative daily ETF equity flows. He does it put. He puts us out by year going back to 2017. And each year it shows the equity flows throughout the year. And obviously it goes up until the end total flows and each year it goes up a little bit more and a little bit more and a little bit more. Each year is higher than the next. 2026 is in another stratosphere. Look at this chart. This is insane. It's 50% higher than it was last year, which was a record.

[A]

I'm going to. So we have Todd on TCAF next week. I'm going to talk about this because what can be responsible for this gap? Like obviously DRAM is in here.

[B]

I, I'm thinking is part of it.

[A]

Is it. It's probably, it's probably SMH too. It's got to be all AI.

[B]

I'm guessing it's. That's a huge number though. That money just keeps flowing into these ETFs. And part of it, again we've talked is like retirees rolling over the 401ks, right? Maybe going from mutual funds, ETFs. I don't know if that's a big part of it, but.

[A]

No, no, because the damn burst. This is like, this is massive, right?

[B]

Yeah, it's wild.

[A]

Okay, I, we spoke about this a couple weeks ago and I guess it's, it's. I guess it's happening. So CNBC reports. Trump Media and Technology Group's new paid data Service launched on August 1, providing faster access to Truth Social posts from President Donald Trump and other top accounts on the platform. Truth API, the new application program interface is designed to give firms a direct license real time feed of the platform's most market moving truths. Interim CEO Kevin McGirt said in a release announcing launch. Is that legal?

[B]

I can't believe that they're, that they're not even trying to put some sort of positive spin on this and go, hey, whatever we earn on this, we're going to give it away to people in need or something, I don't know.

[A]

By the way, Trump's family is the largest shareholder in Trump Media, the public company that operates Truth social media. Obviously. But imagine companies were doing this. Imagine Apple's like, hey, Truth Apple or whatever they're going to call it, where we're just going to release our earnings a little bit, you know, maybe like five minutes early.

[B]

You read about these politicians historically and they seem like heroes. Lincoln, Washington, fdr, Teddy Roosevelt. And I just feel like we're just never getting those type of superhero politicians again because they wouldn't, if they came up today, they wouldn't want to be the president.

[A]

And also, you kind of need to be a dick in the social media world to rise to the top. Like, I don't care. I don't care what party you're. You belong to. Like, if you're going to galvanize the masses, you have to just say the stupidest shit that appeals to the dumbest people. And unfortunately, that is.

[B]

South park called this in 2004 and they had this whole episode about how they were voting for a school mascot and Kyle didn't want to vote because the two options were a douche and a turd sandwich. And I feel like that's just, that's where we are, south park again, they were right. The rest of our life, we're going to be voting between a douche and a turd sandwich. All right, I have a theory about the Fed that I've talked about for a while. Joel Weisenthal tweeted, Bank of America says the market's reaction to Kevin Warsh resembles an emerging market facing a credibility shock. And he talked about how the curve, when he talked, I mean, all the macro people I follow hated his press conference and seemed to think that he's, he said he's not going to talk as much, he's not going to communicate as much. They didn't. He's getting rid of forward guidance. All these people said, this is crazy. And so bank of America said he got a steeper curve, equities went down in a weaker dollar. And that's like what you'd see from em banks. Now the macro people, probably not great. The macro people are up in arms about this. They, they, the people I follow are not big fans of Warsh. They don't like his press conferences. They don't like the way he flip flops on issues. They think he's too political. I have a theory and I think it'll be put to test that the Fed really only matters like 5% of the time and it matters when they are the lender of last resort and when we are in a crisis that's the only time the Fed really matters. The other time I think it's basically a strategy for middle aged men that talk about the Fed's forecasts. I think the Fed really honestly besides in a crisis doesn't do much. Their forecasts are always wrong. They never help out like when there's an actual bubble. They always are way too late to the party. Like they want to come in and rescue after the fact. That's the only thing that the Fed is good for. Am I wrong?

[A]

I don't think so.

[B]

This may be a test where he's going to say like we're not going to do this stuff anymore. And the macro people are up in arms. They hate it. Yeah, I still. The Fed is astrology for finance bros. I think that's what the Fed is like. Their forecasts are never right. So well, it's a expectation function and blah blah blah. They're never right. Who cares?

[A]

Well, I don't think anybody's. I don't know that's true. What they talk. They set guidance to set interest rates. I mean it doesn't matter.

[B]

I just think 20 minutes basis points here or there doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. It's when we need them to really act. That's the only time the Fed matters. That's my. All right.

[A]

And when we need them to act, it matters almost more than anything.

[B]

All right, so I have a little news segment here. I rewatched Obsession, which I think you did too. I saw from recommendations and as I was rewatching it again I thought what if you did one wish willow for the economy.

[A]

I love this.

[B]

Okay, so I did one wish willow for the economy. And so you break it and you go. I Wish we had 3% mortgage rates again and the economy would go great. Here's a massive recession. Enjoy. 2 I wish income inequality would improve. Break it. Fine. Here's a pandemic. Here's 9% inflation. Everyone hates it.

[A]

Stocks fall 80% you're welcome.

[B]

3. I wish home prices would fall. I want lower home prices. Break it. Okay, fine. Here's a global financial crisis. Good luck buying a home. The banks won't lend to you anymore. Housing prices are down though. There.

[A]

I love this concept.

[B]

How did I do?

[A]

I love it. I also rewatch rewatchable. I rewatched rewatchables. I rewatched obsession thanks to the Rewatchables. What a great movie. Holy shit. So I rewatched it with Robin and at the end of the Move, she goes, that was so stupid. And I immediately responded, you're an idiot. I mean, how do you not like that movie? Now she listened to the Watchables with me. We listened on the way up and she got more into it as the. There were so many Easter eggs in that movie, so many things that I

[B]

was fun to watch it again the second time because the first time you're just going, what is going to happen here? Oh my gosh.

[A]

It's very similar to rewatching Sixth Sense because the first time you are so immersed in what's happening and the second time you see it through a new lens. What a movie. Wow.

[B]

It really is. Yes. I. Yeah, so it was just as good of a second time for me too. So I talked about the mortgage rate thing. It's back to almost 7%, 6.8% last week for the 30 year mortgage when it.

[A]

How does anybody buy a house? How is anybody going to buy a house?

[B]

It first hit 6% in 2020, the fall of 2022, when inflation did. And everyone, including us, thought like, okay, this is short lived, like rates will go back down. Just wait a little bit. It'll be like a year or two.

[A]

Well, we didn't. We did not say that.

[B]

Are you sure?

[A]

I'm positive. Not about the rates. I. Per se. I don't remember what we said about rates, but when people said, should I wait to buy a house?

[B]

Because I think, okay, we definitely did not do that. You're right. We did not do it. We said, you do not time the housing market based on rates. Don't try to. So don't play that game.

[A]

2022.

[B]

You're right.

[A]

We said like, do not wait because imagine people were going to buy a house in 2022. Now, in fairness, a lot of people were just priced out, which. Which obviously is horrendous. Oh, it's four years later.

[B]

It's crazy. Again, people have been. And I'm sure there were people who bought who did adjustable rate mortgages and said, fine, I'll do the adjust rate mortgage. It'll be a lower monthly payment and then I'll refinance when rates fall.

[A]

Yeah, well, it's almost five years, by the way. I think this is why I don't really love when you poo poo interest rates because yeah, the stock market might not be bothered by it.

[B]

So this is why though. So this is good. Segue to my next one. This is the treasury yield curve. If you showed this treasury yield curve, the current one. So this is from exhibit A and it shows it now versus 12 months ago. You can see really the changes in the belly of the curve. Boy, that's a, that's a really fun thing to say, right? If you're, if you're in finance and you say the belly of the curve.

[A]

That's Ben, for our non virgin listeners. What, what, what is the belly of the curve?

[B]

The belly of the curve is like the middle. So the two to 10, two to seven years. Like it's the middle of the curve. And when that, that's. You say, that's the belly. The belly is moving like, oh, the belly of the curve looks really attractive right now. And if you showed this yield curve to a finance student in econ 101 and you say this is the yield curve, what do you think? They go, this looks normal. This is the way it should look. This is the way a yield curve should look. And so I agree. I poo poo rising rates for the economy because I don't think it's going to lead to a government debt crisis. I really don't. I think people who worry about that are wrong. You're right. It does impact mortgage rates. That's where the bigger reason is. And I wrote a whole blog post about this saying that, yes, the mortgage rates, that's the thing that matters more than like deficits and government debt crises and all this stuff. It's mortgage rates.

[A]

You know which belly is, is not looking attractive? Mine. I look terrible. I wore one of my Tommy John shirts the other day. Like the, the, the, the. What is it called? Slim fit one. I can't remember what it's called. It's like the tight one. And Robin said, she just gave me a look.

[B]

I'm like a look of disgust.

[A]

Yeah, she's like, what do you wear? It's like bunching up your belly. What?

[B]

Time to call your personal finance or personal trainer again? Come on.

[A]

I'm out of control.

[B]

Do it.

[A]

I'm out of control, Ben. All right, this is a dystopic scene. I went to get lunch the other day, so I'm in the city once a day, once a week. I'm in the city on Thursday, and that's my very busy day. I don't have time to grab a big meal, so what do I do? I grab a smoothie. That part of the story is completely irrelevant. But there's a place Called Pura Vita Miami. And it's right across the park. And you walk in, I think I've said this before. And it's like Abercrombie and Fitch for lunch. It just smacks you in the face with a fragrance. It's like. It's.

[B]

Oh, I went to this place last time I was in New York. I got a salad or something.

[A]

Oh, yeah, okay. All right. Anyway, it's wildly popular, so I pre order my smoothie. I go and I pick it up, and there's 25 dudes with bike helmets on waiting to deliver people a 28 salad. And so it was just imagine. Imagine an alien landing on Earth. Or even. Even like us seven years ago, were shown this picture and described what was happening. You'd be like. You'd be very confused.

[B]

Did you watch the Good Fortune movie with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves?

[A]

I have not. Is that on Apple? Anyway, go on.

[B]

There's a whole thing about this. He's about this thing. All the doordash drivers waiting in line for someone. It's. Yes, I won't spoil it for you, but it's the whole part of the movie.

[A]

Anyway. It was a pretty dark scene.

[B]

All right. On the other side of that, the Wall Street Journal, they interviewed these people who just have to have multiple engines on their boats. And these are probably more in New York than it is in Michigan, but they interviewed this guy who wanted this big boat in Miami, and he wanted four boats, four motors on his boat, okay? And these high horsepower outboards range from 200 to 600 horsepower and cost anywhere from 20,000 to 70,000 per motor. And they said they helped boating industry navigate the choppy economy better than others, making pricey discretionary goods such as RVs. And the whole point was, why do you need this much power on your boat? And it was like, listen, I have to get. I have to get to the fishing hole as fast as possible, as fast as humanly possible. And my thing as a boater is the fishing boats on the lake. Those are like the F250s on the highway. They just drive with reckless abandon. They. They dart across the lake as fast as humanly possible because they want to get to those fish when fishing holes were other people. It's hilarious to me that you need that much power for a fishing boat. People have money. They're going to buy it.

[A]

Yeah. Ben, we've been talking about GLP1s and the impact that they're having in the stock market. This is wild. More so. This is at the COVID Story in Barron's. Morgan Stanley raised its 2035 GLP1 sales prediction from 150 billion to 190 billion from diabetes and obesity alone. That would mean 30% penetration by then amongst obese Americans, up from 6% last year. I'm shocked that only 6% of obese Americans are taking this drug.

[B]

That's very surprising to me. I wonder what percentage of the population is obese. 30 to 40%.

[A]

Sure, sounds right.

[B]

So there's a massive market for this. I do wonder if there are a lot of older doctors who aren't quite on board yet with this stuff, who kind of go, no, this is voodoo stuff. We're not doing this. And it's going to take a group of. We have to push a lot of the baby boomer doctors out of the way, no offense to them, and get a new younger crop to get these and like, really start writing those scripts.

[A]

People have very strong feelings about other people taking weight loss drugs.

[B]

And you shouldn't. This should not be a stigma at all. People should not be ashamed of doing this.

[A]

All right, Ben, I'm coming clean. I want to take it.

[B]

Do it. I don't care. Try it. You already have, you know, irritable bowel syndrome. It's not gonna make it anymore.

[A]

That's between us, okay?

[B]

I mean, I've heard of people trying to like, microdose this stuff or take it so they can lose some weight.

[A]

Yeah, I want a microdose.

[B]

Go for it. I don't care. It's gonna make you healthier jumps. Give it. If it gives you a jump start, go. But obviously the thing people say is, well, if you want it to really work, you have to take it. Like, you can't stop. You have to keep taking it or you have to change your lifestyle.

[A]

Say the problem. My problem is I am a child. I have no willpower.

[B]

This stuff changes your willpower.

[A]

This is my one wish, Willow.

[B]

All right, give it a try.

[A]

I wish to not be a disgusting mess. All right. This is a tweet from Sam Altman. Cool. Use case of chatgpt work I heard last night. Connect your family calendars and explain your kids interests every morning for the drive to school. Have it make a podcast that talks about one kid's soccer game that afternoon, one kid's upcoming birthday, some news, etc. So Buco Capital quote tweeted that and said, over the next few years, you are going to have to fight with everything. You've got to retrain to retain your humanity. They will try to convince you. To give up connecting with each other, to give up truly being alive. It will be the most important fight of your whole life. Now, I love that he said that earnestly. And he's not joking. I mean, obviously, Sam's tweet is so absurd. So, so absurd. These people are. These people are not people. And I don't want to, like, I'm not saying, like, all of San Francisco, because not everybody's like that. Not all the tech people are so lost in the sauce, but. What the are you talking about? No, no, no, no, no, no. I'm not turning my child's calendar into a podcast.

[B]

Well, this is why I don't really believe any of their dire predictions, because they don't understand human. This is like a robot pretending to be a human in a lot of ways. They don't. They. These are, again, intelligent people with no sort of. It's funny because I was thinking about this the other day, about the AI world that we're going to be stepping into. So we had a swing set in our backyard for, like, 10 years now. And it was just the kids don't use it anymore, and it's kind of falling apart and the wood is getting moldy.

[A]

And I wanted to put a data center there.

[B]

Yeah, we're going to do some work for our backyards. I wanted to take it down. And my neighbor, when he had his taken down a few years ago, called a company. They came in like a half hour, cut it down, took it out, hauled it away, and we had nothing to do last Saturday because the kids got back from camp. And I said, george, get some gloves on and grab a hammer. We're going back there and we're going to take it down ourselves. So we took all these tools. I took a chainsaw and. And a hammer, and we hammered this thing. And George and I took the whole swing set down ourselves, and we broke stuff. And he had the best time of his life hitting stuff.

[A]

I love that.

[B]

And I thought, like, do people who work with their hands and do physical activity, are they going to be the happiest people in our new tech overlord world? Like Peter Gibbons in Office Space? Did he have it figured out where he was more happy being the construction worker at the end than he was working in front of a desk? And I do wonder that the people who. Who retain that physicality and that use their hands more, those are gonna be the happiest people in the AI world. What do you think?

[A]

We all just gotta get out there and chop some wood.

[B]

It was so Much fun. My son, I felt like he's gonna probably hammer my toe or something. And we made it out with an unscathed, thankfully, using chainsaws and hammers. But hey, I got it down. It's done.

[A]

You have a chainsaw?

[B]

It's a very little chainsaw. I'm being honest. I have a chainsaw, but it's a. I mean, it's like this big.

[A]

So on the other end of the spectrum, I have this personality, like, defect where I will just let shit linger unresolved forever. Like that. That Alexa thing that's been plugged in making that sound since I moved in 11 months ago. Whatever.

[B]

See, I have the OCD thing where if I have something to do, it annoys my wife a lot because I have to. I have the blinders and I have to get it done.

[A]

I'd rather be you than me, because I have the opposite of ocd, whatever that is. So these posters behind me have been literally in bubble wrap since the end of last September when I moved into this house. And Trevor, one of our multi talented financial advisors. Trevor's a photographer. He's a man of many talents. He. And he came over last week and he said, what do you got? You got some housework for me? I said, do I? I have a whole punch list for you. So he did a great job hanging these. These pictures. There's five inches in between. He really set. Set me up while he was doing this. I went outside. We were gonna go on the water when he was done, had some people over. I tried to inflate. Robin got a paddle board, and it's an. It's an inflatable powder paddle. Geez, I can't say that word. Paddle board. An inflatable patter paddle board. I should edit that whole part out, but whatever. So I have an electric pump and. But I you not. It was just. It was just a chef's kiss. I couldn't figure out how to get the air into the paddle board. Like, the, The. The screw on it. You had to, like, push it in at a certain angle. So I come inside, I'm like, trevor, I swear to God, dude, could you help me get some air into this balloon?

[B]

I have one of those too. It works pretty good. Once you get it out, it kind of locks on there.

[A]

Not to brag. I figured out eventually, but it was giving me a little bit of problems.

[B]

Okay. This is why you outsource.

[A]

I do. I really do.

[B]

Can't believe you let another man and hang pictures in your office.

[A]

No, no, no, Robin wouldn't. Dude, I can hang a picture.

[B]

Oh, she wouldn't let you.

[A]

She wouldn't let me. All right, this is interesting. So Vlad from Robin Hood during their earnings said more than a hundred thousand customers have opened the gentic trading accounts. So I think to me this is like the sports betting etf. The whole point of trading is it's fun, right? Like, am I beating the market in my trading account? No, like, you know, you get some, let's sometimes you have some good months and bad months, whatever.

[B]

Yeah, but don't you think that these traders who do this and implement rules, they're going to do so much better? I mean there's not going to be a lot of alpha here obviously, but they're going to do so much better than they would have using their discretion.

[A]

You're, you're, you're absolutely right. I'm not questioning the results. I'm questioning like the entertainment value stainability of this. Like are people going to be like, are people going to be like, I, oh, I use an agentic thought to

[B]

trade but there's going to be so much tinkering and back and forth with the AI. Yeah, let's try this, let's add this, let's Change this rule. 100,000 people, that's a lot.

[A]

All right, let's talk, let's talk crypto really fast. So Duality Research had a really interesting post where he shared that since Bitcoin peaked last October, cumulative ETF outflows have reached $10.4 billion at their maximum. But 9.3 billion of that or nearly 90% of the entire drawdown in ETF flows occurred during that final two month stretch alone. So he has this great chart that showed the peak, the decline with the, with the outflows over a 30 day period. And we really did see capitulation over the, like the, I guess the May to July decline and in fact 30 day flows finally turned positive again. So I thought that was interesting. But I also thought what was interesting was the fact that the price has not moved with the software bounce. So we spoke to somebody from Grayscale recently and why is Bitcoin not keeping up in the risk on Rally? And my explanation was it's software and it's being treated as such. It's being punished like a software stock. But software bounced and Bitcoin did it.

[B]

Yeah, that's not what you want the correlation to break down. So if you look at just the Bitcoin and Ethereum off the highs from the ETFs, Ethereum's down more than 62%. Bitcoin still on 50%. And they just haven't, They've then they've just kind of been dead money down there.

[A]

It feels dead. Huh?

[B]

It always does. Every time it feels deader than usual.

[A]

I, I, I, I bought a little bit yesterday. Just a little, Just a little. Taking a little stint.

[B]

Oh, okay. What, there's negative negativity in private credit now?

[A]

Just complete, complete washout apathy.

[B]

All right, that's the thing.

[A]

This is interesting.

[B]

You talked before about spiking the football on people and, like, kicking when they're down or whatever. Like, that's just something we do and then we build them back up. There is no, like, the apathy thing with bitcoin. There's no people, like, dunking on bitcoin right now. Ah, I see. I told, like, there was a lot of that in the past. Like I told you.

[A]

I mean that. You're right. It's happening.

[B]

None of that. Not even that. Even.

[A]

Nobody cares. You're right. Um, all right, so there hasn't been any negative news in private credit in a while, except for the story that I missed. This is kind of. This is kind of nuts. Let me read this lead from the Wall Street Journal. The problems for Mark Walters sprawling sports and finance empire began with an internal whistleblower complaint. The complaint questioned how Walters asset management firm Guggenheim Investments booked revenue from dealings with insurance companies and had drawn interest from federal prosecutors by last year, people familiar with the matter said. Within months, the investigation evolved to focus on investments in private credit, a lending business that has boomed on Wall street in the past decade and a half and which supplied the financial Firepower for Walter's 2012 acquisition of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Alongside partners, the U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan and the securities and Exchange Commission are now examining how around $16 billion in loans extended to companies tied to Walter or his conglomerate, TWG Global wound up on the books of insurance companies he owns after passing through a third entity. The authorities are trying to determine whether the activity constituted fraud.

[B]

Doesn't it seem like if the Sopranos were out today, they'd somehow get into racketeering and money laundering through private credit funds?

[A]

100% right.

[B]

Seems like it's so esoteric and hard to understand. It seems like a place where if you wanted to commit fraud, you probably could. That's obviously no knowledge of the fraud in this case.

[A]

Speaking of that, the actor who played Big Pussy died.

[B]

Yes. Did you ever watch the show yet?

[A]

I'm, like, stuck on the fourth season.

[B]

Okay, that was probably one of the fastest binges I've ever done in my life. Is the Sopranos someplay. I'm gonna do it again as well.

[A]

One other story that I missed that I thought was kind of interesting. So Blue Owl. This is from the FT. Blue Owl launched its technology focused fund in 2022 after consulting with UBS about creating a vehicle that would be suited to the Blank's clients. At least 60% of the money the fundraised came from UBS clients, most of whom were based in Asia. That's an interesting wrinkle to the story, huh? Isn't that wild?

[B]

Why is that now?

[A]

This wasn't their flagship. I think it was like a couple of billion dollars. But that's something you don't think about when you're investing is who are the other. Who are the other LPs?

[B]

Well, institutions that. That's a lot of what they look into, where they should be.

[A]

Anyway, Blue Owl reported earnings this week and not terrible.

[B]

Stock market doesn't care. Stock's still down like 60%.

[A]

All right, let's move on to. So the year over year iPhone revenue change. So the iPhone had been sort of. Dead is the wrong word. It just hadn't been consistently growing at all for like years and years and years. So for the last three quarters, the revenue growth grew 23, 22 and 22%. Most Best June quarter ever. I don't know. I have the iPhone 17 doesn't do.

[B]

What are you talking about? You have a supercomputer in your pocket. You complaining about it?

[A]

I'm not complaining about it. I love my phone. What does it do better than the 16.

[B]

Oh, the battery doesn't die. I don't know. I have no idea. I'm sure there's a thread on Twitter somewhere that tells you all the.

[A]

I was about to scream like Mad Dog Russo, like, fix Siri.

[B]

Just freaking what I have.

[A]

Make it better.

[B]

Are we going to get Claude on here someday? That's going to just use Claude to do it and not Siri.

[A]

All right. People are still traveling. July 26th. I'm sorry. July 23rd was the busiest day for commercial air travel ever.

[B]

I know everyone wants to. That's crazy. I know everyone wants to say like, everything. The economy is fake and it's all K shaped and it's only rich people, but it's not. The planes are full. The restaurants. When I was walking around Chicago talking about that, all the restaurants and bars were full of young people. And I keep being told how how miserable young people are because of social media and they can't buy a home. That's not what I saw. I saw a bunch of young people who probably have entry level jobs smiling and drinking and laughing at the bars and the planes are full and the theme parks are full and the bars and restaurants are full. If you still think like the economy is just all fake, then you're not paying attention to what's going on around you. You're too into social media.

[A]

It's so. It's so nuts how social media is like a warped fourth dimension.

[B]

Yes. People don't believe their. Their eyes anymore. They just believe what they see on social media. It's really okay. Obviously I was about the wrongest I've ever been about movies. And you were right. I still can't believe the Michael Jackson movie was so big though that I. I don't know, the child stuff didn't keep people away.

[A]

Biggest pop star in the history of the world.

[B]

Yeah, but I mean, didn't end very great. Okay, so here's the thing. I had my faith in movies restored through obsession and the Odyssey. So I went and saw the Odyssey. I'll save that for recommendations. But I think my faith in humanity has been taken away now that Spider man is the biggest movie ever. Because what are we doing here? The 11th Spider man movie is going to be the biggest movie ever. I thought we were done with the superhero stuff. This to me, I don't like it.

[A]

I love Spider man. And I have no problem with this.

[B]

We just wanted all three Spider Man. Like, do we need another Spider Man? Come on. Oh, he had his memory. Everyone had their memory wiped. And we're gonna do this. And it said there's three Spider Man.

[A]

I don't know why. I don't know why you're taking this posture. What do you mean, do we need another Spider Man? It's just.

[B]

It's the biggest superhero movies let's make. This is not a real movie, dude. CGI bullshit.

[A]

It's by all accounts and it's an awesome movie that everybody loves. People reject bad superhero movies and people are embracing good. What's that?

[B]

I thought we were done with superhero movie, that's all. I'm sick of them.

[A]

So don't watch it.

[B]

Okay. I'm just saying it. It just pains me a little bit that Spider man is going to be the biggest movie of all time. It shouldn't be the 11th Spider Man.

[A]

It's not the 11th Spider Man.

[B]

It is. Look it up. It's literally the 11th Spider man, the

[A]

Tobey Maguire ones, and the Andrew Garfield ones.

[B]

Do you realize how many there have been? It's really the 11th. I'm looking it up.

[A]

Weird stance. You're mad that people love Spider Man.

[B]

Okay. If you include the Spider verse. Movies have been 12.

[A]

Have you seen Spider Man? Have you seen it?

[B]

No. I'm sure I'll watch it someday with my son. I watch all of them when they come on Disney or whatever. But. And the last one was kind of cute because they brought Tobey Maguire back and Andrew Garfield.

[A]

I actually didn't like the last one. I thought that I didn't enjoy that. That was too much.

[B]

I actually think the Andrew Garfield ones are my favorite. I can't believe Spider man wasn't over after number three, when Tobey Maguire was dancing down the sidewalk.

[A]

That was so.

[B]

I literally laughed in the theater.

[A]

That was so cringe when he's twirling the cane or something.

[B]

Okay, so do you want to, like, do your victory lap up movies? Because it was, like, the biggest day ever or something.

[A]

I can't talk about it. Because I was right. So I can't talk about it.

[B]

I'm giving you. I'm giving you credit. I said. I said I was wrong. You were right.

[A]

Biggest. All right. Eric Davis. Brand New Day has secured the biggest opening weekend ever at the domestic box office with $360 million. I think it's done. It's done over a billion dollars already globally. And all the while, the Odyssey is still rocking ass. So I think it's one of the. It was one of the biggest weekends ever for the box office. So I think it's wonderful. Ben, did you see. Did you see Rick Moranis was at the Spaceballs? There was a Spaceball. Something at. It's like Comic Con. I don't know what that's, like, the

[B]

first movie he's done in forever.

[A]

That guy was awesome.

[B]

I can't wait.

[A]

We haven't. I haven't seen him since Little Giants. Where has he been?

[B]

He retired from acting.

[A]

All right, so there is. We're gonna overdo it with the nostalgia stuff the same way that we overdid it with superheroes and the same way that we're gonna overdo it with video game movies. All right. Macaulay Culkin. And I'm. I'm here for this part. Macaulay Culkin is allegedly. I think Bellany was talking about this or somebody. I can't remember. If Macaulay Culkin makes a new home alone, it's gonna do $2 billion. It's gonna be. That could be the biggest movie of all time.

[B]

So he's the dad, obviously.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Okay. Yeah.

[A]

Are you in for that, or are you mad? Because there's. There's. It's gonna be the. It's the fifth Home Alone, Ben.

[B]

I mean, it's not gonna. No, it's been like eight of them. It's not gonna be any good, but I'll watch it.

[A]

Oh, it'll be great.

[B]

You think so?

[A]

Yeah, I do.

[B]

Catherine o' Hara's not around anymore. I don't know. So is the dad the dad? Both parents are dead now.

[A]

Classic that guy. All right, Michael B. Jordan is doing the Thomas Crown Affair reboot.

[B]

Okay. I love the Thomas Crown Affair, but you can't say, like, that's an untouchable movie by any means because it's already been redone once.

[A]

Definitely untouchable. Definitely not untouchable.

[B]

I like heist movies. I'll be around for that.

[A]

But leaning more into nostalgia. So Clue, this sequel series with Alicia Silverstone is ordered at Power Man.

[B]

Okay, Come on. No one wants that.

[A]

I mean, I don't want this, but there is. There is truly a bull market and a nostalgia.

[B]

I still can't believe that she ends up with her stepbrother in the movie. I still am not over that to this day. Paul Rudd is her stepbrother and she at the end.

[A]

That's like a very elevated porn movie if you think about it.

[B]

Very weird.

[A]

So Chart kid Matt did wrote a blog post that there's a bull market nostalgia. And you look at Google trends for things like live events and vinyl and boombox and 1990s, and they're all up and to the right. People are yearning for yesteryear.

[B]

The funny thing is, I've been watching a lot of the 90s movies with my daughter as we go through our rom coms. A lot of the stuff from the 90s aged pretty well, actually. Like the. Like a lot of the fashion choices they made would still be okay today. There's not any that you go, oh, my God, what were people thinking back then? It's really not that bad. Not like the 70s and 80s. We go, oh, holy cow, that hair or that. You know, it's not as bad as that was.

[A]

The cocaine fueled True mania. Well, let me ask you this. What? I know you're a big rom com guy, and I. I've learned to love romcoms in my later years, but I was thinking about the rewatchables. Did Hitch, and I never saw Hitch. You know, Why? I know it's a huge movie. I remember when it came out.

[B]

I love Hitch.

[A]

Is Hitch the movie where Will Smith gets, like, his face blown up by a bit?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Okay. It came out in 2005. I was 20 years old. I'm not watching a rom com by myself with my boys when I'm 20 years old.

[B]

Yeah, that's true. You know, I did watch a lot of them with my mom. I feel like I've always just been a sucker for rom coms. Like, I love Hitch. I guess that's probably right when I started dating my wife, too. So we probably saw that at the theater. I've always loved rom coms. For whatever reason, they don't make good ones anymore. So you gotta watch the classics.

[A]

I thought. I thought the one with Sydney Sweeney and Glenn Powell was right.

[B]

Yeah, Glen Powell should be doing a lot more of those.

[A]

All right, Ben. I. So I was talking to Chris last week after my illness, and Chris said, word for word, you're never like that. You're never a sick person. I can probably think of three or four times you've been sick. That I know you. Quite the juxtaposition between you accusing me of being a sickly person like a young Teddy Roosevelt.

[B]

That's because Chris just doesn't pay attention. Apparently, you're sick all the time.

[A]

I'm sick. Regular.

[B]

Okay. When you get sick, though, you get really, really sick.

[A]

Well, I get very dramatic.

[B]

Yeah. You're like, I was in bed for 36 hours straight. I didn't move a pinky. That is true.

[A]

That is true. So speaking of things that happened last week, we. I had to catch a train early in the morning, and this happens. I know this is not unique to us. I think this is very typical. Every single time we leave the house, it's an emergency. And it's not my fault. It's always Robin's, like, every single time we leave, she has got, like, four bags, water bottles, can't find the keys. Is that. Is that true in your household as well?

[B]

Of course.

[A]

Okay. Right. I think that's pretty. Pretty standard. So I wanted to play her the clip of the cologne thing from last week. I thought she would think that was cute. She did not think it was cute. So we were already on. We were. We were already on. On high alert. You know, we were just yelling at each other for getting me to the train. Like, I gotta be there.

[B]

It's.

[A]

It's 804.

[B]

Yeah. It happens.

[A]

So during the unwind, I'm trying to play her play this. This clip for. And she was listening, and she was. God, shut up. Like, get. Get to the point. Stop talking. And I gotta admit. I gotta admit, she had a point. It was a lot of talking.

[B]

Okay. I. We did get a lot of cologne recommendations for your son, though. And I just picked out a few because these are the ones I've had in the past. So someone said there was an actual Michael Jordan cologne in the 90s. And I remember this.

[A]

I had it.

[B]

My first girlfriend gave it to me for Christmas, and I. God, it had to be terrible. Polo was another one. The blue polo. I definitely had that when I was in high school or college.

[A]

Feel like there was multiple Polo. There was the blue polo with the

[B]

blue sideways, the blue one with the silver top. I had.

[A]

I think you. I don't know if you and I were talking about this. Talking about somebody. I have cologne bottles from 2004. They last forever.

[B]

Yeah, they do.

[A]

Anything else on the clone?

[B]

Someone said, start them out with Axe Body Spray. But I think Polo's not a bad way to start. All right. Two short stories. I was sitting on my porch the other day, and the door to our porch, I kept opening. It was squeaking every time. I'm like, God, this is so annoying. So I went and got the WD40 and I just sprayed it, and it goes away like magic. And I feel like. I don't know when WD40 was invented 100 years ago. Maybe, like, in the past, people just had to deal with stuff that annoyed them. Now we have stuff that can, like, just fix. Like, WD40 is a miracle that it works.

[A]

Such a good point.

[B]

Spray a little bit. Like, one other thing in my office. It's a shared office complex. I'm in an office by myself, and there's always people that come in here to, like, solicit or like, hey, do you know where the person across the hall is? Like, no, I. By myself. I don't know them. So the guy comes in yesterday, and I'm like, yes. And he goes, do you have any paper shredding needs? I'm from West Michigan Shredding Company. And I'm like, eh. He goes, let me guess. You're all digital now, huh? I said, yeah. And he goes, do you have a business card I can take? I said, no, I don't. Really. Not a business. He goes, okay. And walked out. I'm like, man, there's a guy who's used to getting turned down like that. I mean, that is a company that is just right. I'm sure there's people who still need shredded stuff. Shredded. Like, I had a friend growing up who. His dad was a private investigator and he would make us take all his boxes to like the industrial shredder. We'd have to sit there and watch. So all the papers were shredded to make sure they were.

[A]

Wait, hang on. Pause. What a crazy job.

[B]

Yeah, right. I think he said he mostly followed around like divorced couples to see if there's a. You know, are they having an affair for the divorce? Proceed. I think there's a lot of that.

[A]

I feel like private investigators should be a more movie trope. The only one I can think of is Pat Healy.

[B]

Yeah, you're right. But he, yeah, he. He was just a very normal guy. But I think it wasn't as exciting as you'd think from the books and. All right, recommendations? I'll go first because I saw the Odyssey and it's funny, I saw the Odyssey and walked out. And the kind of movie you walk out and you go, holy shit. One of those. You know, I thought that a lot of people talked about the cyclops scene. I thought the Trojan horse scene was like an all time movie scene. The music and the. We were in like the dobly atmosphere. So like it was like pounding our seats. Like that whole scene I thought was just an all timer.

[A]

He was in the horse with them. That's how he shot that Christopher Nolan.

[B]

So I want to re. I. So I'm still a physical magazine guy for gq. And you know, you.

[A]

You really are Gentlemen Quarterly's core audience.

[B]

Oh, totally. I'm a GQ guy.

[A]

Like, so I want you to fit you, you like to look good, you, you run, you like clothing, you like fashion and movies.

[B]

And they had a big profile about the movie and how to make it, because that's kind of. I was at a store in Chicago shopping for a shirt and the guys at the counter were talking about the Odyssey. I said, I saw it last night. Did you hear how they did the cyclops scene? Did you hear how they did this scene? Like, people love talking about that stuff with the movie. So it's a very social movie. So anyway, in this story, they talk about Christopher Nolan, how he inspires both devotion and a certain kind of masochism. And they talk about how Matt Damon was watching Nolan's team do something spectacular like build some platform off the side of a mountain really quickly that could. You could put a technocrane on. And he said the assistant director saw Damon like marveling at this and he told Damon what's interesting is that every single person here could work on an easier movie for more money, but they don't. And that's the kind of thing you aspire to in life. Sure, there's a lot of rich people, but you're doing something that everyone wants to be at to doing that's like really cool. And that's like, no, there's no. There's never been a director like Nolan before who does what he does. No mind blown. Just so well done.

[A]

I don't know why I've been standing on Ceremony, not refusing to see Tenet. Makes no sense.

[B]

Give it a try. Your expectations are probably so low.

[A]

So low. I. I really, I think it was what I forget what turned me off when it came out. Like, people couldn't hear what was going on or it wasn't good, but Dory made no sense. But then I listened to who's on this pod. I think Sean, Amanda and Chris Ryan on the Big Picture talking about the top Nolan movies and they attended pretty high. It's the only one I've never seen.

[B]

All right. Yeah, I just didn't do it for me a couple more. I didn't really like shrinking season one that much. I thought it was just okay. And I thought, why is Harrison Ford doing this show? But I watched season two and three a bunch of people, and I absolutely loved it. It's a show that got better the further it went along. And seeing Harrison ford at age 84, still occasionally tapping into, like, his unbelievable acting, like he'll bring it out every once in a while. He's kind of funny. And there's scenes with Harrison Ford and Michael J. Fox in season three. I was like, oh my God. I grew up with these two people. I grew up watching them all. And Michael J. Fox has the whole is Harrison Ford is developing Parkinson's. It's Michael J. Fox on it, and it's Harrison Ford dealing with the fact that he's an old person who doesn't have much time left, probably. It's really well done. I finished the Men who Would Be King by Nicole Laporte, which is a book you recommended about DreamWorks.

[A]

Awesome, right?

[B]

Great Hollywood stories. I love the fact that they thought Saving Private Ryan wasn't gonna work. There was some amazing gladiator stories about Russell Crowe trying to give a foot race to people and he lost and he blamed it on the sand. Yeah, he was a big time psycho. And they were going to do a streaming service in the dot com bubble like before Netflix, and it didn't work. Out. Anyway.

[A]

Yeah. Wait, was that the one about DreamWorks or was that about.

[B]

Yeah, DreamWorks. It's all about Spielberg and David Geffen and. Yeah, yeah, good stuff. That was your recommendation? Good call.

[A]

Very good. All right. After shitting on Masters of the Universe last week, I watched it three times. I watched it once in full. Logan wanted to watch it. I get it. Great kids movie, right?

[B]

It's a kids movie.

[A]

And there was some stuff for the adults, a few one liners that the kids missed. But yeah, it was whatever.

[B]

They like, poked fun at the old he man. And what's with the name and what are you wearing and all that? It was pretty good.

[A]

I thought Logan loved it. He wants to be he man for Halloween.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

All right. House of the Dragon. You know, I'm such an idiot. Somebody emailed us. By the way, the actress that plays Renera is incredible.

[B]

Yeah, she's pretty good. You're right. I actually think that I'm gonna zag on you. I think the show's tailed off a little this season. It has, but it's still really good and really well done. But I think I'm just more attuned to the story of the Seven Knights one or whatever that came out earlier this year. I'm just. I'm too confused all the time. They just keep bringing new characters. I'm too confused.

[A]

I like. You still have no idea what's going on. And I don't know how this happened. I feel like the biggest idiot in the world. Somebody emailed us. Hey, turn the sub. Turn the captions on. I watch everything with subtitles. I don't know why. For some reason, like, my HBO is not. I don't have the subtitles turned on, so I feel like a schmohawk. I missed the entire season just because I had my subtitles off. A little late to turn it on. What else? What else?

[B]

What else? That's it?

[A]

Yeah, that's it.

[B]

All time highs again. The stock market really is just so impressive when you think about everything that's been thrown at it. It's hard to believe.

[A]

I really wish 10 years ago I knew that this would happen.

[B]

What would you have done differently?

[A]

I mean, I just would have owned the Qs.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

And I just would have aggressively bought everything all the time.

[B]

Of course, that's why the market.

[A]

But even with hindsight, it wasn't easy.

[B]

No, it really wasn't. None of this has been easy. And it won't be easy going forward either. Drawdowns are coming sometime in the next 30 years. We'll have a recession again. I just know it. Bound to happen.

[A]

Bold.

[B]

Email us animalspiritsompoundnews.com Personal emails, personal responses. Thank you to the production team. As always, went very long today because we had a lot to talk about. See you next time. Hello. Look what T.J. maxx dragged in.

[A]

The Devil Wears Prada 2 is now streaming on Disney plus and Hulu.

[B]

We are digital. We are downloadable. We are streamable.

[A]

The fashion event of the year is certified fresh. Pull yourself together.

[B]

We have work to do.

[A]

Critics say it's smart and witty and the perfect sequel. That's all. Get Runway ready for The Devil Wears Prada 2 on Disney plus and Hulu. Rated PG 13.