Animal Spirits Podcast – Episode 415: "Will AI Take All Our Jobs?"
Release Date: June 4, 2025
Host: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson
Location: Wicker Park, Chicago (Opening of The Compound’s Second HQ)
1. Introduction and Live Event in Chicago (00:00 – 03:37)
Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson kick off the episode live from Wicker Park, Chicago, celebrating the opening of The Compound’s second headquarters. This event marks the largest gathering of Ritholtz Wealth Management employees to date, totaling around 60 attendees.
Notable Quote:
- Michael Batnick [02:13]: “We are like our own LinkedIn here on the podcast.”
The hosts take a moment to discuss recruitment needs, specifically seeking an advisor with experience in managing ultra-high-net-worth clients, emphasizing the importance of collaborative tools like YCharts to streamline client proposals and relationship management.
2. Travel Anecdotes (03:37 – 05:55)
Ben Carlson shares his recent experiences staying at a hotel in Wicker Park, highlighting the hotel's amenities, including a 1990s-themed bar on the second floor.
Notable Quote:
- Ben Carlson [04:00]: “Middle age is designed to make you feel old. This is why people have midlife crises.”
The conversation shifts to airline etiquette, where Ben recounts being asked to change seats for families, debating when it’s appropriate to accommodate such requests.
Notable Quote:
- Michael Batnick [05:28]: “I'm a pushover when it comes to things like that. I always say yes unless it's, like, a ridiculous request.”
3. Stock Market Analysis (05:55 – 09:31)
The hosts delve into the intricacies of the stock market, discussing the role of technical analysis. Michael references a tweet by Warren Pies advocating for incorporating technical analysis into investment frameworks, emphasizing that the market often "bottoms before the news does."
Notable Quote:
- Michael Batnick [06:36]: “The market does generally bottom before the news does.”
Ben brings up insights from Michael Semblis on the Odd Lots podcast, reinforcing the idea that the stock market’s technical indicators can precede fundamental news, thus providing valuable investment signals.
4. Investment Behavior and Research Insights (09:31 – 20:43)
Michael and Ben discuss investor behavior, particularly the concept of "breadth thrusts" and how rapid shifts from oversold to overbought conditions can indicate strong market momentum. They address skepticism about technical analysis in volatile markets influenced by external factors like tariffs.
Notable Quote:
- Ben Carlson [14:31]: “Price is the thing that tells you before anything else. Fair?”
The conversation transitions to research on loss aversion, highlighting that investors are more likely to buy stocks after a decline, but averaging down doesn't necessarily improve returns. They emphasize the rarity of sustained turnarounds in company performances.
Notable Quote:
- Michael Batnick [20:43]: “I never buy stocks that are in free fall, ever, ever, ever. You can't do that.”
5. Real Estate Market Discussion (44:00 – 47:20)
The hosts analyze the current state of the real estate market, noting a significant decline in home sales and an imbalance between buyers and sellers. They discuss how high mortgage rates are deterring buyers, yet low inventory exacerbates the issue.
Notable Quote:
- Ben Carlson [46:20]: “The whole buyer strike right now makes a lot of sense to me.”
Michael and Ben agree that timing the real estate market is challenging, advising buyers to negotiate effectively despite the high mortgage rates, as the inventory remains historically low.
6. Economic Sentiment Survey (31:11 – 34:20)
Ben Carlson introduces the Federal Reserve's new financial well-being survey, revealing that while 73% of adults feel financially comfortable, only 46% believe the local economy is doing well, and a mere 29% have confidence in the overall economy.
Notable Quote:
- Ben Carlson [31:43]: “27% of adults consider themselves to be retired. And then they asked how many people actually consider themselves to be on track to retire? I think 35% of people among non-retirees said they're on track to save enough for retirement.”
The hosts discuss how the pandemic has shifted public perception, leading to a more pessimistic view of the economy despite individual financial stability.
7. AI and Its Economic Impact (34:20 – 40:20)
A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to discussing the profound impact of Artificial Intelligence on the job market and the economy. The hosts explore concerns about AI causing deflation through job displacement and altering consumer behavior.
Notable Quote:
- Michael Batnick [35:06]: “I am much more concerned about the damage that will be done from AI than I am from the damage that might be caused because of our deficit.”
They reference Colin's macro prediction that AI will effect inflation dynamics and government spending, questioning whether AI will lead to widespread job loss or create new opportunities.
Notable Quote:
- Ben Carlson [38:45]: “AI is more deflationary.”
8. Technological Advancements and AI Adoption (40:20 – 43:54)
Michael highlights rapid AI adoption, citing Alphabet's data showing a 50x increase in processed tokens over a year and Amazon's extensive deployment of robots to reduce warehouse labor costs.
Notable Quote:
- Michael Batnick [41:12]: “We are processing 400 trillion monthly tokens. That's about a 50x increase in just a year.”
Ben notes that despite automation, companies like Amazon are still hiring, indicating a nuanced impact of AI on employment.
9. Pop Culture and Media Discussions (43:54 – 63:42)
The hosts transition to lighter topics, discussing recent movies and TV shows. They share their thoughts on new releases like the latest Naked Gun movie and Jurassic Park, as well as popular series such as The Last of Us and Friends and Neighbors.
Notable Quote:
- Ben Carlson [55:48]: “I have no comeback” (in response to not understanding the term "gaslighting").
They also touch on the influence of self-help books, the evolution of streaming services, and the challenges of engaging with contemporary media.
10. Conclusion and Thank Yous (63:42 – End)
As the episode wraps up, Michael and Ben extend their gratitude to the live audience in Chicago and acknowledge their production team. They encourage listeners to reach out via email and promote upcoming live shows.
Notable Quote:
- Ben Carlson [63:36]: “We don’t say it enough on the show. Thank you, Travis, for hanging back and producing the show.”
Key Takeaways
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AI's Dual Impact: While AI presents opportunities for efficiency and innovation, it also poses significant risks to the job market, potentially leading to deflationary pressures and requiring societal adjustments.
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Investment Strategies: Technical analysis remains a valuable tool for anticipating market movements, but investors must remain cautious of over-reliance, especially in volatile conditions influenced by external factors.
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Real Estate Dynamics: High mortgage rates and low inventory are creating a challenging environment for homebuyers, though opportunities for negotiation may exist.
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Economic Sentiment vs. Financial Well-being: There is a disconnect between individual financial stability and overall economic optimism, exacerbated by recent global events.
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Technological Advancements: Rapid advancements in AI and automation are reshaping industries, emphasizing the need for adaptability in the workforce.
Further Resources
- Show Disclosures: Ritholtz Wealth Podcast Disclosures
- Contact Information:
- Email: animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com
- Website: animalspiritscompoundnews.com
This episode of Animal Spirits offers a comprehensive exploration of the intersection between artificial intelligence and the job market, enriched by robust discussions on investment strategies, economic sentiment, and the evolving landscape of technology. Whether you're a seasoned investor or simply curious about the future of work, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson provide valuable insights to navigate these complex topics.