Episode 22: Q4 2025 REIT Earnings Recap — Groundhog Day… Until It Wasn’t
Guest: Greg Willett, Chief Economist, LeaseLock
Format: Quarterly LinkedIn Live

In this episode:

🔁 The Groundhog Day Themes

Supply pressures easing in 2026
Back-half rent growth expectations (counter-seasonal strength)
Renewals driving blended rent growth
Expense moderation — especially insurance
Renter financial health stabilizing
Bad debt largely back to pre-COVID norms

🔄 The Shift: Camden’s California Exit

92% of advocacy spend concentrated in California
~$2M annual advocacy costs
$1.5–$2B capital redeployment
60% reinvestment into Sunbelt
40% potentially toward stock buybacks
Analysts pressing on regulatory cost underwriting

💰 Capital Allocation Shift

Stock buybacks increasingly favored over new development
REITs more cautious on 2026 starts
NAV discounts influencing strategy
Development pipeline still active — but less aggressive

🌎 Market Breakdown

Bay Area / San Francisco

No new supply
Return-to-office momentum finally visible
Rent growth leading nationally
Still recovering from deep COVID-era losses

Los Angeles

Core LA under pressure
Southern California still investable — but more complex
Institutional capital reassessing regulatory exposure

Atlanta & Dallas

Green shoots emerging
Class A leading recovery in Dallas
Atlanta showing renewed momentum

Denver

Supply + stalled job growth
20-year outperformance history — but currently lagging
Demand underperforming expectations

Boston

Policy risk emerging
Analysts probing regulatory exposure

Washington D.C.

Surprisingly muted discussion
Little analyst follow-up despite activity

📈 2026 Outlook (Greg’s View)

Not a breakout year
Not a recession year
A transition year
Moving toward normalization
Positioned for stronger 2027–2028 performance