This week, our guest is Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, and, among other things, the host of the Oil Ground Up podcast.

Peter and Jackie open the show with highlights from the federal government’s economic update, Polymarket bets on the Middle East conflict, and the shift in AI companies toward pay-per-use models over unlimited access.

They then turn to oil markets, asking Rory: What’s your take on the UAE’s announcement about leaving OPEC? You recently wrote on your Commodity Context Substack that the oil market reaction has been shockingly sanguine; why? How do you interpret broader equity markets trading near all-time highs? What might upstream oil and gas investment in the Middle East look like under a fragile post-conflict scenario? With some Western countries shutting down refineries and becoming more reliant on imported products, which is now obviously a vulnerability, do you expect renewed investment in refining capacity? And in Canada’s pipeline debate, with expansions and greenfield projects proposed, which direction should be prioritized: routes to the U.S. or west-coast access to tidewater and Asian markets?

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