Can crypto save Iran?

Summary

Ark News Daily: “Can Crypto Save Iran?”

Date: July 8, 2026
Host: Deborah Pardes, Ark Media
Episode Theme: Examination of the latest escalation in the Iran war, the fallout of the revoked US oil waiver, and the role of cryptocurrency in Iran’s sanctions evasion. The episode also addresses shifting US-Israel relations, political messaging, and crisis response in Venezuela.

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the fragile truce between the US and Iran, the breakdown of recent diplomatic efforts, and the surprising role of cryptocurrency in supporting Iran’s embattled economy. It also features analysis of American political discourse on Israel and shares a ground report on humanitarian efforts in post-earthquake Venezuela.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Breakdown of the Iran Truce and Military Escalation

• [00:13-01:51]

  • The US had granted Iran a limited waiver to sell oil under a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at pausing the war and encouraging negotiation.
  • This waiver was revoked following an attack by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz—no casualties, but a clear violation.
  • US responded with military strikes of unclear consequence.
  • The 60-day negotiation window, created by the MOU, is only partially through; recent violence threatens any diplomatic resolution.
  • Visuals of mass rallies in Iran, calling for revenge after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral, signal deepening tensions.

  Notable Quote:

  • Donald Trump [01:43]:
    “Look, we're going to win one way or the other. We're either going to make a deal or we're going to finish the job. Okay? And it won't be tough to finish the job.”

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2. Can Cryptocurrency Sustain Iran Under Sanctions?

• [01:51-03:02]
  • Even as Iran’s oil sales are cut off, it’s increasingly using crypto to evade sanctions.
  • Wall Street Journal investigation: Over $100 billion in cryptocurrency funneled through accounts linked to sanctioned Iranian entities last year—a massive surge.
  • Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reportedly receives crypto payments for oil sales, with China as a core customer.
  • US sanctions on select Iranian exchanges exist but are described as “a drop in the bucket.”
  • Open question: Can crypto revenues replace traditional oil exports enough to prevent economic collapse and force Iran's return to negotiations?

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3. Shifting US-Israel Relations & Democratic Party Debate

• [03:02-06:11]

  • Rahm Emanuel (potential 2028 Democratic candidate) makes headlines challenging “unconditional” US support for Israel.
  • In a speech ahead of a Tel Aviv University address, Emanuel said support should depend on Israeli movement toward Palestinian sovereignty and away from military solutions.
  • Criticizes US administrations for overlooking Israeli mistakes. Previously labeled a “self-loathing Jew” by Netanyahu for his outspokenness.
  • Notable Quote:
    • Rahm Emanuel [04:10]:
      “I do not believe this is both in the interest of the State of Israel, interest in a Jewish democratic state of Israel that you have people running around the West Bank setting homes on fire, destroying farmland, with the government being complicit by being complacent. You want to do that, you're going to pay full price for that.”
  • Emanuel positions himself at the party’s center, but is seen as “balancing” more than resisting the party’s leftward shift on Israel.

  Analysis from Dan Senor [05:24]:

  • “Rahm has positioned himself as a truth teller, as someone who is willing to resist the forces within Democratic party that are pulling the party on cultural issues, on economic issues way to the left to extremes... On the US-Israel relationship... he’s trying to strike some kind of balance, which is revealing in and of itself and in terms of how much the ground has shifted...”

  • Recent poll: 58% of Democrats say US is too supportive of Israel (up from 45% two years prior); about half believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza.

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4. Humanitarian Crisis in Venezuela

• [06:11-08:20]
  • Venezuela faces devastation after an earthquake (over 3,000 dead, 16,000 injured).
  • Juliana Pena of ISRAAID (Israel’s largest non-governmental humanitarian agency in Venezuela) shares a grim outlook:
    • “Even now, after more than a week, there are still many hundreds of people buried... It's getting harder and harder every day. Miracles can always happen, but in terms of expectations, there's not a lot...” [06:38 & 06:48]
  • ISRAAID teams are distributing water, assisting with sanitation, and supporting mental health.
  • Israeli government, at Venezuela’s request, helped craft a national earthquake rehabilitation plan.
  • Diplomatic thaw: Acting President Delsey Rodriguez publicly thanked Israel—a first since ties were cut 17 years ago.
  • Venezuela’s Jewish community, though small, has been swift and selfless in their response:
    • Juliana Pena [08:08]:
      “They started coordinating among each other so quickly, even though they were affected themselves by the earthquake, they are giving their time and effort to support others.”

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Memorable Quotes by Timestamp

• Donald Trump [01:43]:
  “We're either going to make a deal or we're going to finish the job.”
• Rahm Emanuel [04:10]:
  “You want to do that, you're going to pay full price for that.”
• Dan Senor [05:24]:
  “He’s trying to strike some kind of balance, which is revealing... in terms of how much the ground has shifted...”
• Juliana Pena [06:38]:
  “Even now, after more than a week, there are still many hundreds of people buried.”
• Juliana Pena [08:08]:
  “They are giving their time and effort to support others.”

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Notable Moments

| Timestamp | Segment | | ---------- | ------------------------------------------------------------ | | 00:13-01:51 | Recap of US-Iran MOU, resumption of hostilities, and Trump’s threat | | 01:51-03:02 | Iran’s pivot to crypto for sanctions evasion | | 03:02-06:11 | Rahm Emanuel’s critique of US-Israel policy and shifting Democratic sentiment | | 06:27-08:20 | Humanitarian response in Venezuela and rare Israel-Venezuela cooperation | | 08:36-09:47 | (Promo for other ARC Media content; can be skipped) |

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Episode Takeaways

• The US-Iran conflict is entering a new and more unpredictable phase—diplomacy is faltering in the face of escalating militarization.
• Iran’s growing use of cryptocurrency is changing the effectiveness of traditional sanctions, but it remains to be seen if it can truly substitute for lost oil revenue.
• The Democratic Party’s stance on Israel is shifting palpably, with prominent leaders like Emanuel reflecting (and responding to) this new reality.
• Amid disaster, Venezuela sees unprecedented cooperation with Israel, and its Jewish community shows remarkable resilience and solidarity.

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Recommended For:
Anyone interested in Middle East geopolitics, US foreign policy, financial technology’s impact on sanctions, and how international crises reshape diplomatic and communal relationships.

Transcript

[Podcast Host]

You are listening to an art media podcast.

[Deborah Pardes]

It's Wednesday, july 8th. This episode was recorded at 7pm new york time on Tuesday. I'm deborah pardes and this is arc news daily. Three weeks ago, the US Gave Iran a break. As part of the Memorandum of Under understanding that paused the war, Washington granted Iran a waiver to sell its oil again so long as they held up their end of the bargain. That waiver is now gone. Yesterday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired missiles at three commercial ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. No one was killed, but US officials said the MoU was designed to be performance based. And based on that attack, Iran was not performing. That's why it pulled the oil waiver. At the same time, the US Also launched a series of attacks in retaliation for Iran's initial strike. The results of those attacks were unclear. As of this recording, we're about a third of the way through the 60 day negotiating window spelled out in the MOU, which was meant to allow for a long term deal to address Iran's nuclear program. Washington had agreed to pause contact during the funeral events for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Iran, where huge crowds attending rallies in Tehran and cities are calling for revenge against the US And Israel. Still, President Trump renewed his usual threat on Monday.

[Donald Trump]

Look, we're going to win one way or the other. We're either going to make a deal or we're going to finish the job. Okay? And it won't be tough to finish the job.

[Deborah Pardes]

But even if Iran loses access to the global oil market, there's another path it's been quietly exploring, and that's crypto. According to a Wall Street Journal investigation, accounts from sanctioned groups in Iran and elsewhere have brought in more than 100 billion in cryptocurrency last year alone. That's almost eight times what they took in the year before. The investigation reveals how significantly crypto has changed the sanctions evasion game for Iran. Specifically, the Revolutionary Guard has been using crypto exchanges to get paid for oil sales, particularly from China, its biggest customer. Last month, Washington sanctioned four Iranian crypto exchanges, but one analyst who tracks this said that's a drop in the bucket compared to the larger network. What's unclear is whether crypto can keep Iran's economy afloat on its own or whether the loss of that oil waiver is enough to push Iran back into negotiations. Today, potential presidential Democratic candidate Rahm Emanuel is delivering a blunt message to Israel.

[Rahm Emanuel]

Prime Minister Netanyahu has led Israel, the U. S. Israel alliance, into a dead end it's at a tipping point. The status quo is no longer sustainable.

[Deborah Pardes]

That's Emmanuel in a short message he shared on social media. It came ahead of a speech he is giving at Tel Aviv University today. He also shared a copy of the full speech with several outlets yesterday. According to the published text, Emmanuel is making the case that the era of unconditional US Support to Israel is over. He says that support should be contingent on serious efforts to establish Palestinian sovereignty and reduce Israel's reliance on brute military force over diplomacy. He says US administrations of both parties have spent too long averting their eyes from Israeli misjudgments and strategic mishaps. This isn't the first time Emmanuel has criticized Israeli policy and leadership. Prime Minister Netanyahu called him a self loathing Jew after Emmanuel condemned violence in the West Bank. Emmanuel addressed that further in an interview with the Economist in April.

[Rahm Emanuel]

I do not believe this is both in the interest of the State of Israel, interest in a Jewish democratic state of Israel that you have people running around the west bank setting homes on fire, destroying farmland, with the government being complicit by being complacent. You want to do that, you're going to pay full price for that.

[Deborah Pardes]

Emmanuel is not Mandani. He's a Jew. His father was born in Jerusalem. He denounced Hamas on October 7th without hedging, and he has served in some of the most prominent political positions in the US as the chief of staff for Obama and mayor of Chicago. But it's clear that in this speech today, he's responding to the changing tide in the Democratic Party, where an increasingly harsh position on Israel is becoming a sort of litmus test. A poll this week from the AP and University of Chicago shows 58% of Democrats now say the US is too supportive of Israel. That's up from 45% two and a half years ago. Also, roughly half believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. Here's ARC Media's Dan Senor's take on Emanuel strategy as he continues to test

[Dan Senor]

the waters for a 2028 presidential run. Rahm has positioned himself as a truth teller, as someone who is willing to resist the forces within Democratic party that are pulling the party on cultural issues, on economic issues way to the left to extremes. One area where those forces have been most active is on the US Israel relationship. Except on that issue. Based on what we've seen so far from advanced reporting on Rahm's speech, he's not so much resisting the forces of the hard left, he's trying to strike some kind of balance, which is revealing in and of itself and in terms of how much the ground has shifted beneath the feet of traditional foreign policy hands and leaders within the Democratic Party as it relates to the relationship between Washington and Jerusalem.

[Deborah Pardes]

Dan will be doing a deeper dive into this topic on the next episode of Call Me Back, so make sure to check that out. The devastating earthquake in Venezuela has now killed more than 3,000 people and injured more than 16,000.

[Juliana Pena]

The magnitude of the crisis, it's huge. And even now, after more than a week, there are still many hundreds of people buried.

[Deborah Pardes]

That's Juliana Pena. She's head of mission for the Israel delegation in Venezuela, Israel's largest non governmental humanitarian aid agency.

[Juliana Pena]

It's getting harder and harder every day. Miracles can always happen, but in terms of expectations, there's not a lot of expectation, you know, like to find new

[Deborah Pardes]

bodies, she says they have teams set up to help distribute water and deal with sanitation, plus a mental health support team. Separately, at Venezuela's request, Israel's official delegation helped formulate a national earthquake rehabilitation plan that was presented to Venezuela's infrastructure minister and is expected to go to Acting President Delsey Rodriguez, who publicly thanked Israel by name over the week weekend. She specifically thanked Rabbi Cohen, who represented Venezuela's small Jewish community and helped coordinate the response between Caracas and Jerusalem. Venezuela cut ties with Israel seventeen years ago and deepened ties with Iran instead. Rodriguez took over after Nicolas Maduro's capture by the US and she's the first Venezuelan leader since Hugo Chavez to publicly praise Israel on the ground. Juliana from ISRAAID said despite the devastation, Venezuela's Jewish community is staying strong.

[Juliana Pena]

They started coordinating among each other so quickly, even though they were affected themselves by the earthquake, they are giving their time and effort to support others.

[Deborah Pardes]

I'm Deborah Pardes and this is ARC News Daily. See you tomorrow.

[Daniil Hartman]

Hi, I'm Daniil Hartman, president of the Sholem Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

And I'm Yossi Klein Halevi, senior fellow at the Sholem Hartman Institute.

[Daniil Hartman]

What's more important, to be feared by your enemies or morally true to yourself?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

Should Israel strive to be a nation among nations, or should it accept the fact that it is now a fortress of power?

[Daniil Hartman]

What do Israelis and Diaspora Jews owe each other? If you're Jewish or a friend, an ally?

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

These questions have been gnawing at you these past few years.

[Daniil Hartman]

For some of you, like for us, these questions have been keeping you up at night. And for some, they've been simmering in the background, waiting for answers.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

But dilemmas don't always have clear answers. What they do deserve are honest and respectful debates.

[Daniil Hartman]

And as it happens, Yossia and I love to challenge each other to get to the bottom of things.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

We look at current events through a lens that speaks to us most deeply. A Jewish lens.

[Daniil Hartman]

So if today's Jewish dilemmas are on your mind, tune in to our conversation on For Heaven's Sake, a partnership between ARC Media and the Sholem Hartman Institute.

[Yossi Klein Halevi]

You can find For Heaven's Sake on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Daniil Hartman]

See you there.