Iran’s economy is cracking. Will the regime?

Summary

Ark News Daily – Episode Summary

Episode: Iran’s economy is cracking. Will the regime?
Air Date: June 9, 2026
Host: Deborah Pardes (Ark Media)
Theme: Analyzing the severe economic crisis within Iran amidst ongoing war, the resilience of the regime, international parallels (notably North Korea), and the solidarity movements among Jews and broader communities in the diaspora.

---

Episode Overview

This episode investigates the worsening state of Iran’s economy more than 100 days into the war, the resulting social unrest, and whether these pressures threaten the Iranian regime’s stability. The discussion broadens to compare Iran’s situation with North Korea’s regime, exploring how international allies bolster sanctioned economies. The episode also covers a major solidarity march for Israel in Toronto and addresses growing concerns over global antisemitism.

---

Key Discussion Points

1. Iran’s Economic Collapse Amid War

• Economic Decline Accelerates:
  • Iran’s middle class, once 70% of the population a decade ago, now comprises only about half, indicating profound societal changes ([00:35]).
  • Small businesses are firing workers; people are losing vital services like health insurance and pensions ([00:40]).
  • Inflation is skyrocketing:
    • Cooking oil up 430%
    • Eggs up 345%
  • “That was a decline already underway, but accelerated by the war.” ([00:45], Host)
• Impact on Everyday Life:
  • One woman, a restaurant owner, witnesses customers cutting back sharply:
    • “Families of three or four would come in, check the prices and leave. Or they would order one meal for two and share it.” ([01:41], Quoted interviewee)
  • Government employees and young professionals feel financial pain and political alienation:
    • Salaries don’t last the month
    • Groceries bought on credit double in cost before being repaid
    • “I’m feeling angry. I feel alone. We don’t matter to the world at all. We’re only seen as tools for war and negotiation. While we are human beings.” ([02:15], 25-year-old Tehran designer)

2. Emergence of Protests in Iran

• Protests erupted over the weekend in at least 20 provinces.
• Triggered by a dispute over university exam rules, not the war itself, but fueled by a wider sense of injustice:
  • “Students say their generation has already absorbed school closures, a war, economic collapse and broken promises, and they’re done bearing the brunt of it.” ([02:55], Host)
• The regime’s response has historically been severe, but “there’s a difference between suppressing protests and managing an economy in free fall.” ([03:40], Host)

3. International Parallels and the ‘KRINK’ Axis

• North Korea’s Playbook:
  • Despite severe sanctions, North Korea’s economy grew nearly 4% in 2024, with Pyongyang showing signs of relative prosperity ([04:10]).
  • Growth powered by:
    • Troop deployments and arms shipments to Russia (billions in revenue)
    • Renewed, sanction-breaking trade with China
• Strategic Alliances:
  • China and Russia underpin both North Korea’s and Iran’s resilience to Western sanctions ([04:40]).
  • “KRINK” – informal axis of Korea (North), Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, also dubbed the “Axis of Upheaval.”
    • Not formalized, but united in their aim to weaken the US-led order and support each other economically and militarily.
  • Quote:
    • “They are all motivated by their desire to undermine the United States, but it’s also about safeguarding their regimes. When they cooperate, they all understand that they’re more resilient, less isolated… That’s a powerful motivator for each of them.” ([05:36], Andrea Kendall Taylor, Center for a New American Security)

4. Takeaways – Will Iran’s Regime Survive?

• Despite hardships, there’s little sign of imminent regime collapse. The leadership appears convinced it can outlast Western pressure if it maintains international support.
  • “With the right friends, it may be possible to wait the Americans out.” ([05:52], Host)

5. Solidarity with Israel & Diaspora Dynamics

• On Sunday, 60,000 people joined Toronto’s Walk With Israel, one of the largest such demonstrations worldwide ([06:16]).
  • The march united a diverse array of communities: Christian, Iranian, Hindu, Filipino, Black, and Asian participants.
  • “Above everything and beyond everything, we are humans and we want people, peace and togetherness.” ([06:46], Shayan Makhtaria, participant)
• Heightened attention to a surge in global and Canadian antisemitism.
  • Government responses criticized by Jewish leaders as insufficient.
  • Quote from Conservative MP Melissa Lantsman:
    • “When governments go quiet, communities find their voice. That's why we walk, not in fear, in pride and in love for this country, and in the unshakable belief that what binds Canada and Israel together as allies is freedom, democracy and decency.” ([07:40])

---

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Economic Desperation in Iran:

  • “Families of three or four would come in, check the prices and leave. Or they would order one meal for two and share it.” ([01:41])
  • “I’m feeling angry. I feel alone. We don’t matter to the world at all.” ([02:15])

• The KRINK Axis Motivation:

  • “They all are motivated by their desire to undermine the United States, but it’s also about safeguarding their regimes.” ([05:36], Andrea Kendall Taylor)

• Community Solidarity:

  • “Above everything and beyond everything, we are humans and we want people, peace and togetherness.” ([06:46], Shayan Makhtaria)
  • “When governments go quiet, communities find their voice.” ([07:40], Melissa Lantsman)

---

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:35] – Decline of Iran’s middle class; worsening daily hardships
• [01:41] – Restaurant owner’s account of customers’ struggles
• [02:15] – Young Iranian’s alienation and anger
• [02:55] – Student-led protests across Iran
• [04:10] – North Korea’s surprising economic growth
• [05:36] – Analysis of KRINK’s motivations and dynamics
• [05:52] – The regime’s survival logic
• [06:16] – Walk With Israel in Toronto: scale and diversity
• [07:40] – Political and community response to antisemitism in Canada

---

Summary

Ark News Daily’s June 9, 2026 episode delivers a nuanced analysis of Iran’s deteriorating economy in the shadow of prolonged conflict. While ordinary Iranians bear deepening hardship, the regime endures, taking cues from similarly isolated allies and relying on the “KRINK” network to offset sanctions. The discussion emphasizes that external pressures and internal unrest do not guarantee government collapse—especially when powerful states choose to cooperate outside of the US-dominated system. The episode closes with a snapshot of rising global solidarity with Israel and concern over antisemitism, highlighting the resilience and agency of diaspora communities when official responses fall short.

Transcript

[A]

You are listening to an art media podcast.

[B]

It's Tuesday, june 9th. This episode was recorded at 6pm new york time on Monday. I'm deborah pardes and this is arc news daily. The Iran war has now stretched beyond 100 days and talks are stalled. Fighting has reportedly stopped after a series of attacks over the weekend, but could resume at any moment. On one hand, Iran looks like a regime that has survived the worst the US And Israel could throw at it and is playing hardball in the negotiations. On the other hand, inside Iran, its people are suffering. It's worth considering what impact that might have on the regime's calculus going forward. According to Iran International, an anti regime outlet, the Iranian middle class is dwindling. It made up about 70% of the population a decade ago, but now it accounts for just about half. Small businesses are getting rid of workers. People are losing health insurance and pension contributions. That was a decline already underway, but accelerated by the war. Iran's official Statistics center announced last week that inflation is way up compared to this time last year. Cooking oil is up 430%, eggs 345%. One woman told Radio Free Europe that she is seeing fewer and fewer customers in her restaurant.

[C]

Families of three or four would come in, check the prices and leave. Or they would order one meal for two and share it.

[B]

A government employee who had attended pro government rallies told the New York Times that his salary runs out by the middle of the month. He can't afford beef or chicken. He bought groceries on credit from a neighborhood shop and when he returned to pay it back, the bill had doubled. A 25 year old designer in Tehran said, I'm feeling angry. I feel alone. We don't matter to the world at all. We're only seen as tools for war and negotiation. While we are human beings, the anger is also starting to spill out into the streets. Protests broke out over the weekend across at least 20 provinces in Iran despite a heavy security presence. They were set off by a dispute over university exam rules. Not the war. But the students say their generation has already absorbed school closures, a war, economic collapse and broken promises, and they're done bearing the brunt of it. None of this means the regime is about to fall. The IRGC has shown repeatedly that it will use lethal force against its own people. Who's to say if they care how much their people are suffering? But there's a difference between suppressing protests and managing an economy in free fall. Despite the bleak picture inside Iran, for now, the regime appears to be operating on the assumption that it can outlast the U.S. but there's a country that's been living under American sanctions for years and showing it can not only survive but but thrive. This weekend, the Wall Street Journal published a story about North Korea and what it described was a country on the rise. In the capital city, Pyongyang, there are Chinese electric vehicles on the streets and there are restaurants serving brick oven pizza and a ride hailing app on smartphones. Last year, North Korea built 10,000 new homes in Pyongyang. That's more than either Los Angeles or Chicago. The economy grew nearly 4% in 2024, its fastest rate in eight years. A former senior U.S. official who handled North Korea policy said, quote, the regime is wealthier than ever. What's made this unlikely growth story possible is Russia and China. North Korea sent more than 15,000 troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine. About a third were killed or injured, and they shipped millions of artillery shells to Moscow. According to a South Korean think tank, those generated billions of dollars. Meanwhile, monthly trade between North Korea and China just hit an eight year high that is in direct violation of international sanctions, the same kind of sanctions the US and the UN have used against Iran for years. And that's the interesting parallel here. Just like China and Russia have been helping bolster the North Korean economy, they're also helping out Iran. China has been buying Iranian oil throughout the war, keeping the economy from collapsing under the US Block. Russia has provided weapons and intelligence. Together, the four countries have become known as krink. That stands for China, Russia, Iran, North Korea. Others have called the grouping the axis of upheaval. It's not a formal alliance with a charter or regular meetings. But analysts say what holds them together is a common interest in weakening the US Led international order and a willingness to do business with each other regardless of international rules. In an event last October about the Krink axis, Andrea Kendall Taylor with the center for a New American Security described the relationship like they all are motivated

[D]

by their desire to undermine the United States, but it's also about safeguarding their regimes. When they cooperate, they all understand that they're more resilient, less isolated when they work together than when they don't. And so that's a powerful motivator for each of them.

[B]

Whether or not Iranian leaders are explicitly following North Korea's lead, there is a proof of concept. With the right friends, it may be possible to wait the Americans out.

[E]

We walk because as Canadians, we must always stand with those who represent freedom, democracy, and our shared humanity.

[B]

On Sunday, 60,000 people marched the the streets of midtown Toronto for the annual Walk With Israel parade. The turnout was one of the largest public demonstrations of support for Israel anywhere in the world. The crowd was diverse. Christian, Iranian, Hindu, Filipino, black and Asian community members all walked in solidarity. One participant, Shayan Makhtaria, told the Canadian press he doesn't like seeing people divided based on religion or politics.

[E]

Above everything and beyond everything, we are humans and we want people, peace and togetherness.

[B]

The gathering was especially notable given the rising tide of antisemitism in Canada and around the world. Leaders in Canada have been under pressure to act in the last couple of weeks. Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a new advisory council to study what's behind the surge of antisemitism, but Jewish community leaders criticized it as a hollow gesture and questioned how much impact it would actually have. They also called out Carney's refusal to name anti Zionist hate in particular as a primary cause of antisemitism in Canada. Neither Carney nor Toronto's Mayor Olivia Chao attended the event. In a social media post, Conservative Parliament member Melissa Lanzman, who is Jewish, wrote, when governments go quiet, communities find their voice. That's why we walk not in fear, in pride and in love for this country, and in the unshakable belief that what binds Canada and Israel together as allies is freedom, democracy and decency. I'm Deborah Pardes and this is ArkNews Daily. See you tomorrow.

[F]

Hi, I'm Dan Senor, host of the Call Me Back podcast. These past few years have asked a lot of the Jewish world. We've been wrestling with pain, disagreement and dilemmas. The war in Gaza, the war with Iran, the pressure on Jewish communities in diaspora societies, and the upcoming Israeli elections, which may bring many of these tensions to a head. These are not simple stories, and in a moment filled with bad information and overly simplistic answers, it can be hard to know who to trust. At Call Me Back, we know that trust has to be earned, and we know your time is valuable, so when you spend it with us, we take that seriously. We don't claim to have all the answers, but we do try to ask better questions with honesty and humility. It may be that is where hope begins. Not in pretending this moment is simple, but in believing, at a minimum, we must face it together. You can find Call Me Back on Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. See you there.