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You are listening to an art media podcast.
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It's Wednesday, april 29th. This episode was recorded at 9:00pm new york time on Tuesday. I'm deborah pardes and this is arc news daily.
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Israel is going to have to defend itself if they're shot, but they're going to do it carefully and they're going to be surgical as opposed to beyond surgical. And you know, there's a lot they can do.
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Israel is paying a growing price in southern Lebanon, where a U. S. Brokered ceasefire is limiting how it can respond to Hezbollah attacks. On Monday, an explosive drone wounded two Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon, one of them seriously. This is not an isolated incident. Since the ceasefire took effect on April 16, three Israeli soldiers have been killed and dozens wound. The IDF says 45 soldiers were injured in a two day stretch last week alone. But under pressure from Washington, Israel is not escalating and that tension is starting to show. In northern Israel, local leaders are openly accusing the government of sacrificing their security. One mayor put it bluntly. Right now, he said, Israel's safety is being dictated by an agreement between the U.S. lebanon and Iran. Publicly, Israeli officials are still signaling alignment with the U.S. israel's U.S. ambassador, Yahya Leiter met with Trump last week and
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he said, we're united with the Lebanese government wanting to rid the country of this malign influence called Hezbollah. And now that, Mr. President, under your leadership, Iran has been so degraded, the possibility of degrading Hezbollah and liberating Lebanon from their occupation is real.
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But behind the scenes, there is friction. According to Channel 12, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with President Trump on Sunday, asking Trump to loosen the leash and give the Israeli military more freedom to respond. Trump refused. He said that Israel can defend itself, but his position is that escalation could risk blowing up the broader negotiations with Iran. That leaves Israel in a bind. It's absorbing attacks, responding selectively and trying not to be seen as the side that breaks the deal. Adding to the tension, the political landscape in Lebanon is starting to fracture. On one hand, Hezbollah has rejected the talks around the ceasefire. Its secretary general, Naim Qasim said, quote, we will continue our defensive resistance to protect Lebanon and its people. We will respond to Israeli aggression and confront it. But on the other hand, for the first time since 2005, Lebanon's president accused Hezbollah of treason for continuing the essentially on behalf of Iran. He said his goal is to end the conflict in Israel, but it's not clear the rest of the government will follow him there or whether Hezbollah will have more room to operate politically. The next few days will test how sustainable all of this actually is. What remains to be seen is how Israel responds and how much it will escalate. One former Israeli general, Nimrod Sheffer, warned this week that this kind of setup guarantees constant low level fighting with no realistic strategic g. A ceasefire like this, where one side is constrained and the other keeps probing, doesn't freeze the conflict, it stretches it out. And for Israel, it's become a slow bleed. In the meantime, the White House is still pushing toward talks between Israel and Lebanon in the coming weeks. So this becomes a race between two can diplomacy move fast enough to stabilize the situation, or do the daily attacks spiral out of control? Moving on to the negotiations between Iran and the United States. Over the weekend, Iran floated a new proposal to the Trump administration. Lift the US Blockade, end the war, and only then, let's talk about the nuclear program. That sequence of events matters because for months, the nuclear issue has been at the core of the conflict. The President reviewed the proposal with his national security team on Monday and came away dissatisfied. Response? No nuclear talks up front, no deal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran's nuclear program must be a top priority.
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The straits is basically the equivalent of an economic nuclear weapon that they're trying to use against the world, and they're bragging about it. They're putting up billboards in Tehran bragging about how they can hold 25% or 20% of the world's energy hostage. Imagine if those same people had access to a nuclear weapon. They would hold the whole region hostage.
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The White House believes time is still on its side because economically, Iran is running out of room, literally. The US Blockade has sharply limited exports, but production is still continuing and the system is backing up. Analysts estimate the country may have a couple of weeks at most before its oil storage fills up completely. If storage fills, Iran will have to shut down wells. But shutting down wells isn't like flipping a switch. Experts warn that it could permanently damage parts of Iran's oil infrastructure, potentially cutting long term production capacity in a way that can't easily be reversed. So the pressure campaign is hitting a critical phase. The US Is tightening sanctions, further targeting shipping networks, refineries, even cryptocurrency tied to Iran. The strategy is clear. Push Iran to the brink and force a better deal. Trump is betting that a few more weeks of economic pressure will produce a deal that includes the nuclear program from the start. The most immediate signal for what comes next will be Kharg Island. Satellite imagery of Iran's main oil terminal will show weather production is actually being wound down. If wells start shutting, the pressure campaign will have worked, but Iran will likely do everything it can to avoid sending that signal. Foreign. Israeli politics may be entering a consolidation phase and a potential reset. Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced their joining forces for the next election. Running on a unified ticket led by Bennett, Lapid is effectively stepping aside, folding his party into a broader bloc with a clear goal to dethrone Netanyahu. And they're not stopping there. They've invited former IDF chief of staff Gotti Eisenkot to join. He's been polling well on his own and so far hasn't committed. Another key figure, Benny Gantz, is also staying out for now. His argument is different. He says that the path forward isn't a unified opposition, but a broader coalition that includes part of Netanyahu's own Likud Party, just without Netanyahu himself. The merger is the first serious consolidation on the anti Netanyahu bloc since the current government has been in power. But Israeli politics has seen similar efforts before. In 2019, a unified opposition gained ground but still couldn't form a government. This was followed by three consecutive election cycles in which neither side managed to reach the 61 seat coalition necessary to form a government. What makes this moment different is that Netanyahu is weaker than he's been in years. The judicial reform fight October 7th and the wars that followed, they've all taken a political toll. But the real question is whether that's enough to actually change the outcome. Because for more than a decade, Netanyahu has had a structural advantage. He can reliably count on the ultra orthodox bloc while the opposition struggles to form a government without Arab parties. For now, Eisencot is the big question mark, and we should get an answer within days. If he joins, this new bloc suddenly looks more formidable. It would likely become the largest party with real momentum heading into the October election. We'll get an early read on this later this week when the first post merger polls come out. That's the first test of whether this actually changes the race or just reshuffles the same voters. I'm Deborah Pardes and this is ARC News Daily. See you tomorrow.