The cost of the war keeps rising - Ark News Daily

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Episode Overview

Podcast: Ark News Daily
Episode: The Cost of the War Keeps Rising
Date: June 8, 2026
Host: Deborah Pardes

This episode covers the latest and most dramatic escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, breaking down how the collapse of a recent ceasefire has led to a rapid escalation of military strikes. Additional focus is placed on the sharp decline in Israel’s global standing according to new polling data, and an in-depth look at the worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza and its broader strategic implications.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Collapse of the Ceasefire and New Military Escalations

Ceasefire Broken:
The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, alongside Israel and Lebanon, fell apart on Sunday morning when Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel, breaking a new agreement.
- “The ceasefire between Israel and Iran was holding if by a thread, and that thread was ripped apart yesterday.” (00:10–00:17)
Immediate Retaliations:
Israel responded by striking Hezbollah targets in Beirut, resulting in reported casualties.
- Lebanese media reported “two people were killed and 11 wounded.” (00:35)
Iran’s Entry & Escalation:
Iran’s IRGC responded with a wave of ballistic missiles targeting northern Israel, which were mostly intercepted. This led to disruption in daily life across Israel, such as nationwide school closures and hospitals moving underground.

2. U.S. Involvement and Diplomatic Tension

Trump Intervenes:
Former President Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, urging restraint:
- “If Bibi strikes them back, it’s just going to keep going like the last 47 years or the last 3,000 years.” — Trump (00:54)
- “Netanyahu will have no choice but to accept an Iran deal. I call the shots. Bibi does not.” — Trump, separate interview (01:05)
Israel’s Response:
Despite Trump’s urging, Israel launched overnight air strikes on Iranian military targets, with Iranian state media claiming about 15 sites hit, including a drone storage facility in Tehran.
- U.S. defense officials emphasized the limited scope and denied American involvement.
Diplomatic Fallout:
The U.S.-Iran negotiations, already stalled, now face new hurdles. Trump continues to express hope for a deal, but openly expresses frustration at Netanyahu's independent actions.

3. Israel’s Global Standing Plummets

Pew Research Poll:
New polling shows Israel’s favorability has hit historic lows worldwide:
- “Only 1 in 4 respondents view Israel favorably.” (02:15)
- In Europe, negativity soars, with up to 80% negative views in Spain and Sweden.
- In Muslim-majority countries, negative views are nearly unanimous.
- The U.S. has seen a reversal: Democrats now sympathize more with Palestinians—opposite to 2001's patterns.
- “Kenya and Ghana remain broadly positive on Israel.” (03:10)
Impact and Interpretation:
Some say Israel has survived similar public-relations crises in the past. Others caution that the decline—especially in the U.S.—could have long-term repercussions, possibly lasting a generation or more.
- The Pew survey was conducted mainly after the February outbreak of war, implying future support may fall even further with continued conflict.

4. On-the-Ground Gaza Update: Security and Humanitarian Crisis

Military Situation:
Veteran correspondent Ron Ben Yashai’s recent Gaza tour underscores that Hamas’s military capacity is shrinking; seasoned fighters are down to about 8,000, with replacements inadequately trained.
- Israel controls about 64% of Gaza and has destroyed nearly 300 miles of tunnels, with Hamas commanders being killed faster than the group can replenish leadership. (04:00–04:45)
Loss of Popular Support:
Notable moment: the funeral of a senior Hamas commander drew only a few dozen, compared to tens of thousands previously—even for lower-ranking figures.
Dire Civilian Circumstances:
About 2 million Gazans are crowded into 36% of the Strip (an area the size of Greater Jerusalem but double the population). Aid deliveries are slowing, especially as the Strait of Hormuz closure strains Gulf state finances.
- “Aid is getting in, but it’s slowing.” (05:18)
- Hamas is accused of diverting significant aid toward recruitment rather than relief.

Strategic Risks for Israel

Pointed Warning:
Ben Yashai and Pardes highlight the dire risks if the situation deteriorates:
- “An epidemic, a stray bomb, a generation of children raised with nothing to lose—any of those can become a catastrophe that the world could lay at Israel’s feet.” (05:55)
Israel’s Dilemma:
Israel is unwilling to return Gaza to Hamas control but is also reluctant to fully govern the enclave, which would mean a prolonged military occupation with immense logistical and moral burdens.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Recurring Violence:
“If Bibi strikes them back, it's just going to keep going like the last 47 years or the last 3,000 years.” — Trump (00:54)
On International Opinion:
“Only 1 in 4 respondents view Israel favorably.” (02:15)
“In Europe, opinions on Israel are mostly negative... nearly 80% of people surveyed in Spain and Sweden say they have a bad opinion of Israel.” (02:25)
On Hamas Support:
“The recent funeral of a senior Hamas commander drew only a few dozen people, compared to tens of thousands at past funerals for more junior commanders.” (04:48)
On Humanitarian Risks:
“An epidemic, a stray bomb, a generation of children raised with nothing to lose—any of those can become a catastrophe that the world could lay at Israel’s feet.” (05:55)

Timeline of Key Segments

00:04–01:40: Ceasefire unraveling, retaliations, and first escalation wave.
01:40–02:10: Trump’s interventions and Israeli response.
02:10–03:30: Global opinion shifts—Pew and Brookings findings.
03:30–05:30: Gaza update—Military and humanitarian realities, strategic forecasts.

This episode captures the rising costs—military, diplomatic, and humanitarian—of the ongoing conflict, providing a nuanced, on-the-ground, and global perspective on what further escalation could mean for the region and beyond.

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[00:04]
A
You are listening to an art media podcast. It's Monday, june 8th. This episode was recorded at midnight new york time on Sunday. I'm deborah pardes and this is arc news daily. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran was holding if by a thread, and that thread was ripped apart yesterday. It all started on Sunday morning when Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel, breaking a brand new ceasefire agreement signed between Israel and Lebanon. Just last week, Israel struck back, hitting Hezbollah targets in Beirut. Lebanese media reported two people were killed and 11 wounded. Then Iran stepped in. The IRGC fired a wave of ballistic missiles at northern Israel. Iran called it a, framing it as retaliation for the Beirut strike. Israeli air defenses intercepted the missiles and no injuries were reported, though schools across the country were closed and hospitals moved underground. Trump called Netanyahu and urged him not to retaliate. He told Axios, quote, if Bibi strikes them back, it's just going to keep going like the last 47 years or the last 3,000 years. In a separate interview, he added, netanyahu will have no choice but to accept an Iran deal. I call the shots. Bibi does not. According to Axios, Netanyahu pseudo agreed to hold off, but then didn't. Overnight, the Israeli air force struck military targets in central and western Iran. Iranian state Media reported around 15 targets hit, including what Al Jazeera said was a drone storage facility in Tehran. A US Defense official said the American military was not involved and described the Israeli attacks as relatively limited in scope. The broader U. S. Iran negotiations were already stalled and now face an even bigger hurdle. Trump said he thinks he's still close to a deal, but Netanyahu just struck Iran over his explicit objection. Iran's next move will determine whether this stays a limited exchange or becomes something much harder to contain. Israel's standing around the world continues to fall, hitting an historic low. This is the main finding from a new Pew Research poll. The question was basically framed like do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Israel? Nearly 45,000 people across 36 countries were surveyed. The headline is that only 1 in 4 respondents view Israel favorably. In Europe, opinions on Israel are mostly negative. For example, nearly 80% of people surveyed in Spain and Sweden say they have a bad opinion of Israel. And in Muslim majority countries, negative views are near total. In the U.S. the picture is especially striking when compared to 20 years ago. According to the Brookings Institute, back in 2001, a majority of Democrats sympathized more with Israelis than Palestinians. Today, that's flipped completely. Sub Saharan Africa is the one region that bucks the trend. Kenya and Ghana remain broadly positive on Israel. The question is whether any of this is recoverable and on what timeline. Some have argued that Israel has weathered bad polling before and that its long term success has never depended on winning global public opinion polls. But others caution that Israel's standing will continue to fall, particularly in the United States. That trend could take a generation to reverse. The latest Pew survey was conducted mostly after the Iran war began in late February, suggesting that with each new front Israel fights, the erosion of global support will continue. A lot of you have written to us asking for an update on what is actually happening in Gaza right now. One of Israel's most experienced military correspondents, Ron Ben Yashai, toured the Strip and published his account over the weekend. His conclusion is that while the military threat from Hamas is receding, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza is only getting worse. That could present strategic challenges for Israel. Contrary to some accounts, Ben Yashai says Hamas is not roaring back. He says they now only have about 8,000 real fighters. The rest are boys and young men recruited in a hurry and given only basic training. Israel now controls about 64% of Gaza. It has destroyed nearly 300 miles of tunnels and is killing Hamas commanders faster than the group can replace them. And crucially, it appears Hamas is losing support from Palestinians. The recent funeral of a senior Hamas commander drew only a few dozen people, compared to tens of thousands at past funerals for more junior commanders. But until Hamas disarms, which they have refused to do, the people of Gaza are stuck in dire circumstances. About 2 million Gazans are crammed into roughly 36% of the Strip. That's an area the size of Greater Jerusalem and more than twice the population. Aid is getting in, but it's slowing. International attention has shifted to the Iran conflict, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has drained the Gulf state's cash reserves, which were supposed to help fund Gaza's reconstruction. Hamas also still diverts a significant portion of the aid that does come in to fund recruitment. According to Ben Yashai, this is the real danger for Israel. An epidemic, a stray bomb, a generation of children raised with nothing to lose. Any of those can become a catastrophe that the world could lay at Israel's feet. Israel cannot hand Gaza back to Hamas, but it also does not want to govern 2 million people itself. That would likely mean a full military occupation, with Israel responsible for feeding and running the Strip for years. I'm Deborah Pardes and this is ARC News Daily. See you tomorrow. It.