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You are listening to an art media podcast.
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It's Thursday, may 7th. This episode was recorded at 6:00pm new york time on Wednesday. I'm deborah pardes and this is arc news daily. Today we're going to talk about the latest on the war, but also how China's blurry role is coming into focus. First, here's where things stand from Washington's perspective.
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Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation.
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The White House believes that the war may be closer to ending than at any other point since it began. At a press conference on Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that the offensive military campaign was over. Then yesterday, Trump echoed that on social media with a caveat. He said the war would be over only if Iran followed through on agreements he claimed had already been reached, including reopening Hormuz to all shipping. He added, if Iran doesn't agree, the bombing will start again and at a much higher level and intensity than before. According to Axios, the two sides are actually closing in on a deal to end the war. Their proposed framework covers three main stopping Iran's nuclear enrichment, the US Agreeing to lift the sanctions, and both sides lifting restrictions on Hormuz transit. The US expects an Iranian response within 48 hours. The signals from the region are cautiously optimistic. Qatar's prime minister said he sees a high possibility of a diplomatic solution. Even Iran's military sent a cryptic signal. It issued a statement that said, with the end of the aggressor's threats and new protocols in place, the possibility of safe and sustainable passage through the Strait will be provided. Sounds like progress. But as to why a deal hasn't happened yet, the short answer appears to be Iran. The White House believes its leadership is divided. On one side are hardline clerics and members of parliament who want to escalate the fighting. They say Iran must not negotiate and describe any compromise as surrender. On the other side are political leaders like the foreign minister. And President. Rubio said more about that dynamic in a Fox News interview last last week.
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Now, I think, look, people talk about moderates and hardliners. They're all hardliners in Iran. And so you see a tension, and you always have in that system between the Iranians who understand let's be hardliners, but let's also balance that with the need to run a country and the hardliners who don't care and have this apocalyptic vision of the future. Unfortunately, the hardliners with an apocalyptic vision of the future have the ultimate power in that country.
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What makes this moment different from previous near misses is the economic pressure. Inflation in Iran is running above 70%. The blockade has cut off oil exports, their main source of income. And according to the news site Iran International, the war has left roughly 2 million people jobless. There are reports of growing public frustration and the regime is worried that it's losing its own base, not just its critics. That pressure is what the White House is counting on. The question is whether it's enough and whether it reaches the right people inside Iran, Iran's disjointed power structure. One question lurking in the background of the Iran negotiations is where does China fit in? Iran's foreign minister flew to Beijing yesterday for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart. And what both sides said and didn't say tells you a lot about the complicated role China is playing in this war. A spokesperson for China's Foreign Ministry said that a comprehensive ceasefire is urgently needed and that restarting the fighting is not acceptable. That's a strong public statement. China is Iran's most powerful ally. It buys roughly 95% of Iran's oil exports, often at a discount. And that revenue helps fund a big chunk of Iran's military budget. Chinese banks help Iran move money around Western sanctions. And according to multiple diplomats, it was a last minute push from China that convinced Iran to accept the ceasefire last month. So when China says jump, Iran at least has to think about it. Washington knows this. Secretary Rubio said Tuesday that he hopes China uses its leverage on Iran.
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I hope the Chinese tell him what he needs to be told and that is that what you are doing in the straits is causing you to be globally isolated. You're the bad guy in this.
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Rubio says China has every reason to push for a deal. China imports nearly half its crude oil from the Middle east, so Iran's actions in the Strait are hurting them too. That's all true, but it's not the whole picture. While China is publicly calling for peace, it's also been quietly keeping Iran's war machine running. Chinese commercial satellites have reportedly given Iran images of US Military assets. And in April, CNN reported that China was preparing to give Iran anti aircraft missiles, the same type of weapons Iran used to shoot down a US Fighter jet earlier in the war. China denies it. Officials say they've never provided weapons to any party in the conflict. Here's the bigger picture. After yesterday's meeting, Iran's foreign minister said, quote, our Chinese friends believe that Iran after the war is different from Iran before the war. Its international position has improved and it has proven its capabilities and power Therefore, a new era of cooperation between Iran and other countries lies ahead. That phrase new era of cooperation is telling. According to the New York Times, voices inside Iran's Revolutionary Guard have been openly discussing what they call the Pakistan model. The idea is that Iran deepens its military and economic ties to Beijing the way Pakistan has over decades, relying on Chinese weapons, Chinese loans, and Chinese diplomatic cover. Complicating this all is the emerging framework for a deal between the US And Iran. For now, it appears focused on Iran's nuclear enrichment and reopening Hormuz. But Iran has said its ballistic missile program is not up for negotiation. If those missiles stay off the table, that could make it easier for China to help Iran rebuild the same weapons network the US Just spent months trying to destroy without the political cost of arming a country actively at war with America. So yes, China might be able to push Iran toward peace. But the harder question is, what comes after that? Does a U S. Iran deal clear the way for this new relationship where Iran is poorer, more isolated from the west, and more heavily armed with Chinese help than ever before? For the second time in six months, dueling crowds of protesters gathered outside a synagogue on Manhattan's Upper east side. What played out is a window into the growing tension between the city's Jewish community, its new mayor, and a city that is increasingly divided over Israel. The occasion this time was something called the Great Israel Real Estate Event, a traveling expo that helps Americans buy property in Israel, including in west bank settlements. It was held at the Park East Synagogue. A few hundred pro Palestinian demonstrators showed up. Dozens of pro Israel counter protesters came, too. The NYPD shut down streets for blocks around the synagogue and kept the groups apart. There were scuffles, mainly between police and pro Palestinian demonstrators, but no arrests. The chants were familiar. Pro Palestinian protesters shouted, long live the Intifada. And from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free. Some counter protesters chanted, there is no Palestine. Mayor Zoram Mamdani condemned the event itself, saying it promoted the sale of land in settlements in the occupied West Bank. He called those settlements illegal under international law and tied to the ongoing displacement of Palestinians.
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He added, I've made it clear time and time again that we in this city believe in the sacrosanct nature of the right to protest and also are committed to ensuring that any New Yorker can safely enter or exit from a house of worship.
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That dual message that he opposes the event and he'll protect the synagogue is the tightrope Mamdani has been walking on since he took office. He's a democratic socialist with roots in pro Palestinian activism, and his relationship with New York's Jewish community has been tense since he took office. Assemblyman Micah Lasher is running in the Democratic congressional primary for the district that includes Park East. He said the most recent protest was intended to, quote, create fear in the hearts of Jewish New Yorkers and stigmatize our community. He said it was part of the rising antisemitism Jews are facing. The City Council has tried to respond. Earlier this year, it passed two bills aimed at protecting houses of worship and schools from disruptive protests. Mamdani vetoed the one covered schools, citing free speech concerns. The one covering houses of worship passed with a veto proof majority, but it doesn't fully take effect until June. The broader pattern here is that synagogues are becoming protest sites, and it raises questions that New York's Jewish community is pressing right now. Where is the line between protest and intimidation, between political speech and targeting a religious institution? And who gets to draw that line? Those questions don't have easy answers, but they're being asked with increasing urgency, not just in New York, but in cities across the United States and Europe as demonstrations outside Jewish institutions have become more common since October 7th. For New York specifically, the stakes are high. The city has the largest Jewish population of any city outside of Israel, and its mayor's relationship with that community carries real political weight. We'll see if that political pressure eventually shifts how Mamdani responds the next time something like this happens. I'm Debra Pardes, and this is Ark News Daily. See you tomorrow.