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You are listening to an art media podcast. It's Wednesday, may 6th. This episode was recorded at 9:00pm new york time on Tuesday. I'm deborah pardes and this is arc news daily. The war with Iran was supposed to set back Iran's nuclear program. That that was one of the central justifications for it. But here's a question worth sitting. What if it didn't? Reuters published an exclusive yesterday that said the current war has done only limited additional damage to Iran's nuclear program. The report cited three sources familiar with U.S. classified assessments. They said the intelligence community's timeline estimate has not changed since last summer. Iran is still about a year away from building a nuclear weapon and it still has about 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium, much of it buried beneath the underground tunnel complex at Isfahan. Reuters journalist Graham Slattery co wrote the report. He says U.S. officials argue that by degrading Iran's conventional military capabilities, they've effectively made Iran's nuclear program more difficult to defend. But given this intelligence assessment, it seems more would need to be done to seriously impact it. Like the possibility of sending in ground troops to retrieve the uranium.
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If that were to be pursued, obviously that would be very controversial, have enormous political risks. But one reason that that might be a serious option under consideration is simply because if you really did want to set back Iran's nuclear program by a really substantive amount, that might be, you know, one of relatively few options on the table.
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This Reuters report lands at a sensitive moment. The ceasefire is holding. If by a thread, talks are stalled and both sides are trying to define what this war actually accomplished. The US and Israel have both called last June's Operation Midnight Hammer a strategic and historic blow to Iran's program. Here's Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at his press briefing yesterday morning.
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We will ensure one way or another that they give up those ambitions, give up those capabilities, and we're able to confirm that every step of the way.
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Israeli officials have been even more emphatic. Veteran Cabinet Minister Yuval Steinenz has said that the war so far has been a massive victory. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also said that Iran does not have a single active enrichment facility. So who's right? That question doesn't have a clean answer. Critics will likely argue that the report shows the war is falling short of its goals. Defenders could also use it to argue that the nuclear program was already damaged and the war is increasing pressure on the regime. What we know is that any agreement with Iran, if one ever materializes, will have to address the nuclear program directly. And as things stand now, it appears the military campaign alone might not address it. While the war presses on, something unexpected is happening to Israel's economy. And it tells a very different story about how the world is betting on this conflict's outcome. Israeli stocks are hitting record highs. The Shekel is trading near its strongest level against the dollar since the mid-1990s. And the international Monetary Fund expects Israel's economy to grow faster than any G7 country this year. That's not what normally happens after two years of war. After October 7th, many analysts predicted Israel could face a long economic crisis. Hundreds of thousands of reservists were called up. Tourism collapsed, entire communities were evacuated, and the government took on huge wartime costs. But investors now seem to believe the outcome of the war may strengthen Israel rather than weaken it. Rakefet Rusak Aminoach is the former CEO of Bank Leomi and now a senior partner at a venture capital firm. She says tech is a big part of the story. Here's how she put it on ARC Media's what's yous Number? Podcast.
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We are used to deal with challenges. We are used to be in a state of war. We are used to uncertainties. This is part of our life. And I think that that explains part of the resilience and what we get. We get Israeli founders that are wired for pressure. What I see when I look at the tech ecosystem, this is an ecosystem that doesn't panic.
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All of this is a striking contrast to Iran's economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said last week that the US blockade is costing Iran $170 million a day in lost oil revenue. Now, none of this means ordinary Israelis aren't feeling the pain. Reservists have been away from their jobs for months. Small businesses have struggled. Exporters are actually alarmed by the strong Shekel because makes their goods more expensive abroad and erodes their profit margins. The cost of the war is real and ongoing, but the macro picture is worth noting, and it matters strategically. A strong Shekel typically means the government can borrow at lower rates. And it also means the country has greater capacity to sustain a long conflict if it has to. Market predictions aren't always right, but right now it's clear that global investors see Israel, not Iran, as the side to bet on. I'm Deborah Pardes, and this is ARC News Daily. See you tomorrow.