Ark News Daily – "Trump's Endgame in Iran?"

Podcast: Ark News Daily
Host: Deborah Pardes (Ark Media)
Date: April 1, 2026
Recorded: March 31, 2026, 7:00pm NYT
Theme: Shifting US and Israeli war objectives in Iran, implications for the Middle East's geopolitical future, and realignment of alliances.

Overview

This episode takes stock of US and Israeli war goals in Iran after 33 days of conflict. The focus has shifted from regime change and reopening the Strait of Hormuz to degrading Iran’s military and nuclear capacities. The episode dissects comments by President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signaling lowered expectations for a decisive outcome. It also highlights changing regional alliances, Israeli domestic impacts, and the coexistence of war with daily life as Passover approaches.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Evolving US and Israeli Objectives in Iran

• Both the US and Israel now aim for a "scaled down endgame," acknowledging the Islamic Republic may survive and retain control over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Trump’s position: He now considers full regime change and reopening the strait as unnecessary or unattainable.
  • Quote:
    "He [Trump] is willing to end the war without fully reopening the strait… said if anyone needs oil from the strait, they should just, quote, 'come and take it.'" (00:45-00:55)
• Netanyahu’s shift: Israel is also backing off the call for revolution in Iran.
  • Quote:
    Netanyahu: "Eventually, I think this regime will collapse internally, but at the moment what we're doing is just degrading their military capacity, degrading their missile capacity, degrading their nuclear capacity, and also weakening them from the inside." (01:43)

2. Nuclear Concerns and the Isfahan Strike

• Trump no longer insists on removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles, citing their inaccessibility.
  • Quote:
    "He said he, quote, doesn't even think about it anymore because it's so deeply buried under rubble." (01:57)
• The US reportedly bombed a major ammunition depot in Isfahan, possibly burying uranium stockpiles further – though this remains unconfirmed.

3. Strategic Uncertainty and US Military Posture

• The US intends to keep Iran "guessing," avoiding clear statements about possible troop withdrawals or future actions.
  • Secretary of War Pete Hegseth:
    "You can't fight and win a war if you tell your adversary what you are willing to do or what you are not willing to do to include boots on the ground. Our adversary right now thinks there are 15 different ways we could come at them with boots on the ground. And guess what? There are." (02:43)

4. Israel’s Vision for a New Regional Order

• Israel anticipates a post-war Middle East less reliant on Europe and the US, centering economic and security alliances around Jerusalem.
  • Netanyahu:
    "The war has transformed Israel into a global power. This means realignment for quite some time for my European colleagues. You know, we've shown remarkable weakness, most of them." (03:32)
• Israel is distancing itself from Europe, stopping arms purchases from France after France blocked US military access.
• Netanyahu envisions stronger ties with Gulf states and alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz:
  • Quote:
    "I think these are interesting ideas to divert all the energy pipelines from the Gulf, where the Iranians have a geographical chokepoint, across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea and up there to the Mediterranean ports, our ports in Israel…" (04:19)

5. Gulf States’ Realignment

• Gulf officials (e.g., UAE advisor Anwar Gargosh) see Iranian aggression as strengthening Israel's foothold:
  • Gargosh:
    "I think Iran's full throttle attack on the Gulf states will actually strengthen the Israeli hole in the Gulf will not diminish it." (04:47)
• Arms deals: The Trump administration pushes through $23 billion in arms sales to UAE, Kuwait, and Jordan; F-35 jets for Saudi Arabia are pending.

6. Domestic Impacts in Israel

• Israel is under daily attack by Iran and Hezbollah, with ongoing civilian and military casualties:
  • "Since the war began, more than 6,000 people have been evacuated to Israeli hospitals. 19 civilians and 10 soldiers have been killed. Iran's Health Ministry reports that there have been more than 1900 Iranian civilian deaths." (05:13)
• Wartime restrictions: State of emergency extended, restrictions on gatherings, closure of schools and parks, halted international flights.
• Passover in war: Special guidelines issued, including for conducting rituals in bomb shelters.
• Travel disruption and adaptation: Most travel canceled, but travel to Sinai continues as a "reliable" option.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump on shifting war goals:
  "If anyone needs oil from the strait, they should just, quote, 'come and take it.'" (00:52)
• Netanyahu on military strategy:
  "Degrading their military capacity, degrading their missile capacity, degrading their nuclear capacity, and also weakening them from the inside." (01:43)
• Secretary of War Hegseth on unpredictability:
  "You can't fight and win a war if you tell your adversary what you are willing to do... Our adversary right now thinks there are 15 different ways we could come at them with boots on the ground. And guess what? There are." (02:43)
• Netanyahu on European relations:
  "You know, we've shown remarkable weakness, most of them." (03:32)
• Anwar Gargosh on Gulf realignment:
  "Iran's full throttle attack... will actually strengthen the Israeli hole in the Gulf"(04:47)
• Passover under fire:
  "They include rules for searching for leaven in bomb shelters and what to do if a siren sounds during the ritual—stop, go to the shelter and resume when it's safe." (05:55)

Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:14 — War update, evolving US/Israel endgame
• 00:52 — Trump on Hormuz and regime objectives
• 01:43 — Netanyahu’s change in rhetoric, military strategy
• 01:57 — Nuclear issue, Isfahan strike
• 02:43 — Hegseth on operational secrecy
• 03:00 — Israel’s vision for a new regional order
• 03:36 — European disappointment, ending arms deals with France
• 04:19 — Pipeline vision, Israel-Gulf ties
• 04:47 — Gulf states on realignment, US arms sales
• 05:13 — Civilian impacts, Passover adaptation
• 05:55 — Special Passover guidelines in wartime

Tone & Language

The narration is urgent, succinct, and factual, with a note of resilience regarding Israeli adaptation to wartime life and a pragmatic shift in political and military objectives.

Summary:
The episode candidly tracks how both the US and Israel are stepping back from original maximalist war goals in Iran, now accepting a weakened but intact Iranian regime. The vision for a postwar Middle East is a dramatic realignment away from Europe, towards Gulf alliances and regional self-reliance. Meanwhile, wartime realities sharply shape daily life in Israel as the country prepares for a challenging, somber Passover.