Nate Silver (statistician)

Summary

Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard: Episode Featuring Nate Silver (Statistician) Release Date: February 12, 2025

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Introduction

In this engaging episode of Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard, host Dax Shepard and co-host Monica Padman welcome esteemed statistician Nate Silver. Celebrating Nate's birthday, the hosts delve deep into Silver's remarkable journey from a passionate statistician to the mastermind behind the influential website FiveThirtyEight. The conversation intertwines personal anecdotes, insights into statistical modeling, the evolution of political forecasting, and reflections on Silver's latest book, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.

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Nate Silver’s Journey: From Baseball to Politics

Early Beginnings and Passion for Numbers Nate Silver began his career with a strong affinity for numbers and statistics, which naturally led him to create predictive models in baseball. As Dax notes, "You kind of discovered that you love math at a very appropriate time" (04:00), highlighting Silver's early passion that set the foundation for his future endeavors.

Creation of Pakota and FiveThirtyEight Silver developed Pakota, an algorithm designed to forecast baseball player performances, emphasizing probabilistic outcomes rather than fixed predictions. Dax summarizes, "The innovation is that most predictions will just say... whereas this gave a range of options" (11:14). This approach was a precursor to Silver's later work in political forecasting.

In 2008, Silver identified a pivotal moment to apply his statistical expertise to politics, coinciding with the rising prominence of Barack Obama. This led to the creation of FiveThirtyEight, a website dedicated to data-driven journalism. "By the end, when you leave, like 17 out of 10, a huge percentage of their personal traffic was you," Dax remarks, underscoring the significant impact FiveThirtyEight had on The New York Times (21:30).

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Political Forecasting and Election Models

2008 and 2012 Presidential Elections Silver's models gained widespread recognition for their accuracy in predicting the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. He states, "In 08, you got 49 of 56" predictions correct, and in 2012, "50 of 50" (20:14). These successes solidified his reputation in the field of political forecasting.

The 2016 Election: A Learning Experience The 2016 U.S. presidential election presented unprecedented challenges. Silver's model assigned Donald Trump a 30% chance of winning, a higher probability than the consensus. "If you were gambling on the election... you'd have five to one odds on Trump," Nate explains (24:56). Despite being one of the few models giving Trump a realistic chance, Trump ultimately won, leading to widespread criticism. Silver reflects, "I think 2016 was actually our best election" (24:38), emphasizing the inherent uncertainties in predicting human behavior.

Challenges with Polling Data Silver attributes some of the polling inaccuracies to demographic biases. "People with high social trust answer all types of surveys more," he notes (26:24). This resulted in over-sampling Democrat voters and under-representing Trump supporters, skewing the predictive accuracy. "Track of these issues, you're going to have your poll over sample Democrats" (26:42).

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Experiences at The New York Times and ESPN

Transition to Mainstream Media After the success of FiveThirtyEight, Silver was brought into The New York Times to integrate his data-driven approach into their reporting. However, this transition was fraught with challenges, including cultural clashes and shifting leadership. "There are brilliant people in The New York Times... but they're transitioning from dinosaur-like print media to a mostly digital approach," Nate shares (22:15).

Move to ESPN and Further Challenges Silver later moved to ESPN, where he continued to develop FiveThirtyEight amidst a corporate environment that often clashed with his innovative methods. "We were kind of in a point of stasis where there's no business model," Nate explains, highlighting the difficulties of scaling his passion within a large corporation (30:29). This period was marked by internal struggles and strategic misalignments, eventually leading Silver to refocus on his independent work.

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Insights into Statistical Modeling and Risk

The Art and Science of Modeling Silver emphasizes that statistical models are not purely scientific but involve significant subjective decision-making. "There's a lot of art as opposed to the science," he states (13:55). Selecting variables, balancing complexity, and ensuring robustness are all part of the nuanced process of creating effective models.

Gambling and Probability A notable portion of the discussion revolves around Silver's passion for gambling and how it intertwines with his statistical expertise. "If you can get 56% of your points bets right, then you're like a world class," Nate explains (15:00). This parallels his approach to election forecasting, where understanding probabilities and accepting uncertainty are crucial.

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Reflections on Effective Altruism and Risk-Taking

Effective Altruism in Practice In his book, Silver explores the concept of effective altruism, which seeks to maximize the impact of charitable actions through data-driven decisions. However, this approach raises ethical questions about valuing lives and making trade-offs. "How much are we trading the welfare of different animals against each other?" Nate pondered (55:35).

Profiles of Risk-Takers Silver profiles individuals with a high appetite for risk, such as Peter Thiel and Sam Bankman-Fried, exploring their motivations and decision-making processes. "They are targeting taught to quantify everything in probabilistic terms," he observes (44:18). These profiles highlight the complex interplay between rationality, risk, and personal ambition.

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Personal Anecdotes and Closing Thoughts

Birthday Celebrations and Personal Stories Throughout the episode, personal stories and light-hearted banter add depth to the conversation. Celebrating Nate's birthday, the hosts share humorous exchanges about pets, household anecdotes, and personal challenges, making the discussion relatable and engaging.

Final Reflections As the episode concludes, Silver reflects on the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few, tying back to his discussions on probability and competition. "There are a lot of good critiques you can make of everything," Nate muses (58:16), encouraging listeners to maintain a healthy skepticism while navigating complex societal issues.

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Notable Quotes

• Nate Silver on Probabilistic Modeling:

  • "We don't know the future. Baseball players get injured or stop using steroids or whatever else." (11:14)

• On the 2016 Election:

  • "Our model had Trump with a 30% chance of winning... we were one of the only people who were saying that Trump really did have a shot." (24:47)

• On Effective Altruism:

  • "When you're making these very ambiguous, hard to decide moral issues that are nuanced... what's better for whom?" (55:27)

• On Statisticians and Decision-Making:

  • "A lot of it is about where you add more complexity and where you're pruning because models break." (12:29)

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Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive look into Nate Silver's expertise, personal experiences, and the philosophical underpinnings of his work in statistics and risk assessment. By blending technical insights with personal narratives, Dax Shepard and Monica Padman create a rich and engaging conversation that illuminates the complexities of predictive modeling, effective altruism, and the human elements intertwined with data-driven decision-making.

For those unfamiliar with Nate Silver or FiveThirtyEight, this episode serves as an insightful introduction, showcasing how statistical models influence our understanding of sports, politics, and beyond.

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Stay tuned for more insightful episodes of Armchair Expert with Dax Shepard.

Transcript

[Dax Shepard]

Wondry plus subscribers can listen to Armchair Expert early and ad free right now. Join Wondry plus in the Wondry app or on Apple Podcasts or you can listen for free wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome, welcome welcome to Armchair Expert Experts on Expert. I'm Dan Shepard and I'm joined by Monica Padman.

[Monica Padman]

Hi.

[Dax Shepard]

Hi. We have our first, I think statistician on today.

[Monica Padman]

Is it our that's a big swing.

[Dax Shepard]

Nate Silver is the point. He's a statistician and a best selling author. Everyone would know Nate Silver around election time. All of his computations end up as headlines all the time. He had an incredible track record for a while. There were a couple deviations that we'll learn of, but his books include the Signal and the Noise and he has a new book out that I happen to just read on my own. Couldn't stop talking about. We invited him in. He blessed us with his presence. It's called on the Edge, the Art of Risking Everything. And also you can go to his substack at Silver Bulletin, which is where he's doing all of his work now.

[Monica Padman]

And that's a fun play on words.

[Dax Shepard]

Silver Bulletin.

[Monica Padman]

Silver Bulletin.

[Dax Shepard]

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[Monica Padman]

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[Dax Shepard]

You're in love with them?

[Monica Padman]

Yes. I already went through an entire magnesium.

[Dax Shepard]

You did? You blasted through?

[Monica Padman]

I blasted through. And a vitamin C. Well, did you.

[Dax Shepard]

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[Nate Silver]

He's an upchurch.

[Dax Shepard]

He's an. While you were in. Did you say Seoul?

[Nate Silver]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

How's that?

[Nate Silver]

Seoul's great. They have these cool bars and restaurants and art galleries. It's very vibrant.

[Monica Padman]

I really want to go. And they have great skincare.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, I know. They have snail serums.

[Monica Padman]

That's. Oh, that's made its way to America now they have salmon sperm.

[Dax Shepard]

Ooh, salmon sperm. Sign me up.

[Monica Padman]

If you get injected, then you look.

[Dax Shepard]

14, you could really end up pregnant with all this skin.

[Monica Padman]

You're really good. It's dangerous.

[Dax Shepard]

So, Nate, I want to start by saying happy birthday. Oh, my God.

[Monica Padman]

Happy birthday.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. You're here on your birthday. This is a very Capricorn thing to do.

[Nate Silver]

You kind of have a lot of shit packed together. You have the holidays already. Feels a little greedy to have your birthday.

[Dax Shepard]

Self indulging. Yeah.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah. I don't want to have a birthday so soon after the holidays.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, mine's the second, so I'd argue mine's just 11 days worse than yours.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Cause it's right on the heels of all that.

[Nate Silver]

That's probably bad.

[Dax Shepard]

And are you, in general, someone who has no desire to celebrate your birthday?

[Nate Silver]

I come from a mixed family where my dad's side's very anti celebration, my mom's side's very pro celebration. Kind of balancing out the recessive traits.

[Dax Shepard]

You're right smack in the midd. Well, as I was learning a little bit more about your background, I was like, we have a lot in common here because I'm from Milford.

[Nate Silver]

Oh, cool.

[Dax Shepard]

Which is what, 25 miles as the crow flies from East Lansing? And your dad taught at MSU or Still does.

[Nate Silver]

He retired a couple years ago, but yeah, I taught at msu. So like a university kid. It's a good place to grow up. I found that I have, like, an unconscious hiring bias toward Midwesterners. They're just grounded.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, again, you want them somewhere on the spectrum where they're not constantly bitching about someone who tried to get one over on them. You know, we do have a big chip on her shoulder about feeling less than. So you want just the right amount of lessons. They work their ass off, but not the kind that bitches all day.

[Nate Silver]

No. And you can detect. I was at the airport in Dallas one time. Like, that person sounds really familiar. And they're from East Lansing. I didn't know who they are. They seemed like a certain manner of speaking. You know, those micro dialect things. We have a little bit of that.

[Dax Shepard]

So you kind of discovered that you love math in a very appropriate time. So I only know the members of a single baseball team that ever existed. And it's the 84 roar. The Detroit Tigers.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Alan Tramway. I know his name.

[Nate Silver]

Gibbs Parish.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. No, the whole gang. You were 6ish when that happened.

[Nate Silver]

I was 6 years old. And I like numbers. I don't think I ever thought I could become a baseball player. I was like, never that delusional.

[Dax Shepard]

Right, right, right, right.

[Nate Silver]

In fifth grade, we had to write these biographies of what our future life would look like. Basically, I had myself becoming president at some point.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, wow. Of America.

[Nate Silver]

I retired the presidency to become baseball commissioner because that was the higher office. To me, your work was to guide.

[Dax Shepard]

America to a better place. And then you would indulge your real passion in your retirement.

[Monica Padman]

The important stuff, starter job, the presidency.

[Dax Shepard]

Weirdly, that trajectory kind of makes sense. I was also watching the Aaron Rodgers doc recently. I don't know if you've caught that.

[Nate Silver]

I haven't seen it yet.

[Dax Shepard]

But he too is talking about. He would play this weird board game and it was all about stats. And you would roll these dice.

[Nate Silver]

Stratac.

[Dax Shepard]

That's what it was called. And so I think a lot of you inadvertently just practicing math nonstop without even realizing you were doing it.

[Nate Silver]

I collected baseball cards. It was like a baseball card bubble. Your net worth is now 5000 bucks. Like an 8 year old's like a lot of money.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, yeah, yeah.

[Nate Silver]

It's like the NFTs of the late 80s.

[Dax Shepard]

All collectibles, ultimately. Beanie Babies. Monica has one that she believed at one point was worth.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, Liberti. It's here, it's covered.

[Dax Shepard]

So we think it's degraded.

[Monica Padman]

I bought my parents basement and it is disgusting now. But I do think it was $72,000 or something like that. I still think that.

[Dax Shepard]

So you're super into baseball. You're crushing numbers as a hobby. You're also gay when you know you're gay. Cause I know the vibe in Michigan in the 80s and I know that I was living every minute of every day on the playground trying to avoid being called. Yeah, that was the number one. Go to. Way to emasculate.

[Nate Silver]

I'm exactly old enough to turn. Just three years later would have been pretty different.

[Dax Shepard]

The experience of going through school, you say something that I relate to for different reasons, but there's some value to feeling like an outsider from the get.

[Nate Silver]

If you look now at gay men of my cohort, they're often quite successful, right?

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, yeah. Best boy syndrome.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah. Because they have like a little bit of what it feels like to be an outsider if you're otherwise privileged. But you got a couple of things right. You're gay and you're half Jewish.

[Monica Padman]

It's got a little bit of the flavor of adversity.

[Nate Silver]

Adversity. But also the ability to code switch, I guess is the term.

[Dax Shepard]

Assimilate, have a secret, have a perspective.

[Nate Silver]

You're not necessarily volunteering your entire self at all times. It's also useful in poker and it's useful in journalism. You don't want to volunteer information in poker. There's a cost to volunteering information. And so learning to be a bit more guarded and feeling like there's no kind of template I can follow that's exactly to meet my needs. Right. I have to take a little bit from different buckets.

[Dax Shepard]

Right.

[Nate Silver]

Okay.

[Dax Shepard]

So dad's in academia. Also. You got some famous geologist uncles, which is really fascinating.

[Nate Silver]

There's some crater on, I think, the moon.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Nate Silver]

It's a pretty big one.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Nate Silver]

They were super overachieving, my dad's side. I have a famous arsonist on my mom's side who got like written up in the New York Times. He, like, invented new forms of arson and insurance fraud. I'm not actually like an overachieving type. I kind of do it despite myself, really. And so I take after that side of the family.

[Dax Shepard]

I think you end up getting a degree in economics and then you end up working for a few years as a consultant.

[Nate Silver]

I was a transfer pricing consultant.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay. What is transfer pricing consultant?

[Nate Silver]

Basically, when you have a multinational company and different parts of the company make different things. Like you have Apple cell ph, and they make the semiconductors in Taiwan and the screen in Bangladesh. How you price that can be used to optimize your tax policy. So basically it's how do you optimize your tax policy without getting sued by the government? Okay, really valuable work we were doing.

[Dax Shepard]

It wasn't nourishing your soul, but I.

[Nate Silver]

Hadn'T really thought about it. When you actually have the chance for the first time to earn a paycheck, it's kind of exciting.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, big time. And I glossed over. You were also a Michigan State champ debater. You also wrote for the high school newspaper. Also in college, you wrote for the Chicago Maroon. You're writing the whole time. And you're also doing all this stat work for fun with sports. Still, you're still obsessed. And then you create and explain this to us. What Pakota is so.

[Nate Silver]

Pakota. The anagram is very. I'm not going to bore your listeners for even 15 seconds.

[Dax Shepard]

You'd be shocked with their tolerance for boredom.

[Monica Padman]

If you don't say it, I'm going to have to say it on the fact check, so you might as well say it now.

[Nate Silver]

Picture empirical comparison. It's deliberately nerdy. An optimization test algorithm, I think.

[Dax Shepard]

But it's also a nod to a.

[Nate Silver]

Player, this obscure player, who was always like a thorn in the side of the tigers.

[Dax Shepard]

This thing has a weird name. I read for the first time in my life today. It wasn't a reverse a nym, but it was like a backward NYM acronym. I never heard of backward nim.

[Monica Padman]

Me either.

[Nate Silver]

It's like doge, the Department of Government Efficiency. So they kind of come up with the acronym and then figure out some letters later to make it match the acronym they like, oh, it's kind of.

[Monica Padman]

Like, oh, they're working backwards. I got it.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, that makes sense.

[Monica Padman]

Acronym.

[Dax Shepard]

That's also how we process the world. We make sense of it after it happened, and we think we understood it before it happened. And it only makes sense after the fact.

[Nate Silver]

No, I have a friend who's a neuroscientist, and he's like, yeah, our brain's just kind of just predicting and inferring. We never actually know what reality is. We're just making, like an expedient internal map simulation.

[Dax Shepard]

We're modeling, which you ultimately do. We're just modeling the future. And then our data set is something that is heavily subjective because we make it make sense in reverse. Of course, we go, oh, this happened. It's because of X, Y and Z. But we don't know. That's just what we kind of cling to. Okay, so you create this thing. And what is the goal of Pakota?

[Nate Silver]

It's to forecast how baseball players will do. The innovation is that most predictions will just say, okay, this player, Shohei Ohtani, will hit.302 with 42 home runs and 108 RBIs next year. Whereas this gave, like, a range of options. So it was probabilistic. And that's kind of one of my big things is we don't know the future. Baseball players get injured or stop using steroids or whatever else.

[Dax Shepard]

They're hungover, they get divorced.

[Nate Silver]

They're human beings. And there's luck. But no, the idea is to have, like, a range of outcomes. And so you're dealing with the uncertainty in the outlook. But yeah, people use it for fantasy baseball. Major league teams used it.

[Dax Shepard]

You did this in 2000. Was there already fantasy baseball at that time?

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, I mean, fantasy baseball dates back to the 80s.

[Monica Padman]

Is Pakistan Moneyball?

[Nate Silver]

Well, it's kind of in the Moneyball tradition.

[Monica Padman]

That's so cool.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, I do want you to tell me, what year did that happen?

[Nate Silver]

Moneyball was 02 or 03 somewhere in that range.

[Dax Shepard]

Pakota's a couple years before that, about the same time.

[Nate Silver]

So, coincidentally, the company was called Baseball Prospectus. And this kind of blows up in part because of Moneyball and the Red Sox, who are being very stat friendly, win the World Series in 2004. Yeah. Becomes a whole thing.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay, now this is where you're really going to put everyone to sleep. I understand that you're making. Making statistical models. That's what this thing is ultimately, right? Yeah. What does that mean? You must be selecting the variables you're going to use to determine this. And I bet there's a lot of decision making just there, like, what are we going to include? What were you doing? That was novel about it.

[Nate Silver]

People have this bad habit of pretending that, oh, the model just flaws out of a coconut tree. It'll quote former presidential candidate Kamala Harris. And no, you have to make a lot of decisions in sports, at least the data is high quality. We record everything that happens on a major league playing field. But you're making decisions at every turn. A lot of it is about where you add more complexity and where you're pruning because models break. So you want, like a complex simplicity.

[Dax Shepard]

Am I right in that the product you create, it's a long formula and you just start plugging in up at bets and this and that.

[Nate Silver]

It's a bunch of computer code.

[Dax Shepard]

And it's just a math equation that you've picked the variables of and you have some way of evaluating the quality of the variables.

[Nate Silver]

Algorithm is the term that would technically be used for our political forecast. Literally you input, put the polls and press the go button and it takes five minutes and runs 50,000. Simulation then spits out a bunch of data. But that makes it seem like it has a mind of its own. It's hard because on the one hand you don't want to dictate what the data says, right? On the other hand, if you like already have the answer you want, that's not really objective science either. So it's kind of this iterative process between I want to systematize so I have to follow rules and not just be totally ad hoc. If I feel like it's handling this player badly or this election badly for a politics model and I change the rules, what's that mean for the other elections? What's that mean for the whole system overall? It's not like there's just, just one right answer. What are hedge funds and banks doing? Or what are the best sports bets doing? They're usually using multiple models. You want a model that's robust. So basically if one thing breaks, then it will still spit out a reasonable answer. That's where some of the art comes in as opposed to the science.

[Dax Shepard]

Now really quick, where the fuck does one learn to make these statistical models? Was this taught in econ or is this something you did as a hobbyist?

[Nate Silver]

It's as a hobbyist, you're trying to win your fancy baseball league. You're trying to solve a problem that you're determined to solve. You're trying to maybe win money. Gambling, for example. You need to be very hands on and have skills in the game because academics, to cliche a little bit, tend not to have good street smarts for modeling. A lot of the skill is like being able to look at a data set and say the value that number put out, something's wrong there and there must be either a bug in the input, we put the numbers in wrongly, or the code failed somehow.

[Monica Padman]

Are you coding yourself or you have a leader you work with?

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, back to the, for the most part, all my own coding. I'm a control freak in that way.

[Dax Shepard]

And I think people need to understand as well. When you create a model, it's not telling you this team will win. I'm guessing it's saying there's a 54% chance the team will win. There's a 61% and in the world of betting, if you have an 11% margin, if you can predict that 61% accuracy, you're going to be the most successful gambler of all time.

[Nate Silver]

If you can get 56% of your points bets right, then you're like a world class.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. So we're not looking to predict with 95% accuracy. Anything above 50% is basically a good use of your time.

[Nate Silver]

And that comes from poker too. Poker players can discern like a 52% probability from 48%. Right. Most people think 1000 and 50, 50. Right. There are a lot more gradations between 50, 50 and 100 and 0.

[Dax Shepard]

Right. Okay, so now let's introduce your passion for gambling. When does that start? Because among your many interests, you're also a degenerate gambler.

[Nate Silver]

I don't know. I would.

[Dax Shepard]

It's easy. You're here.

[Nate Silver]

So I have my boring consulting job in college where I could do it in like a third of the time that we were billing the client. So I had free time on my hands. In addition to starting this baseball stuff. My friend at work was like, we are starting a poker game at my apartment every Tuesday. The game actually never, but I was practicing for it online. Playing games for fake money. Poker does not really work for fake money. It's a game where you actually want to have to put something at risk. It's a game that involves bluffing and risk. So eventually I get some dubious offer to get money and some free online site. I remember going home to my parents for Christmas and like having a bunch of whiskey and like, I'm just going to play online poker. And you keep playing hire. And lo and behold, though it's a cliche where you lose all your money. But like, I won, right? I got lucky at first and then parlayed that into eventually quitting my consulting job for a couple of years to play online poker.

[Dax Shepard]

Wow. One article I read said you had made 400 grand in a few years.

[Nate Silver]

I made 500 and lost 150 back.

[Monica Padman]

So like 350, that's still pretty cool.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. In 2000. And then additionally, this pagoda thing is now starting to get very trusted as a way to predict the performance and careers of these players. And then along comes Baseball Prospectus, which acquires this thing you've created, Pakota.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

And then you go to work for.

[Nate Silver]

Them and they're kind of like a startup and they would just hire smart nerds on the Internet. Right. And they're like, okay, this kind of seems cool. Why don't you actually curl this up for us and like made proposal. And also the first system was for pitchers and they're like make one for hitters too. And for some reason they decided. How old was I at the time, like 24. You should also be the executive vice president of the company. Right? Shitty job with a lot of bureaucracy and all these nerds. You're trying to wrangle them and they're great people. We've had some reunions. Yeah, they're not the most corporate refined culture. And so you're doing a lot of problem solving that I'm utterly unqualified to do because this job doesn't pay very well to do management.

[Dax Shepard]

What kind of money did you make selling this algorithm to them?

[Nate Silver]

They gave me equity in the company, which theoretically where something probably wasn't worth that much in practice.

[Dax Shepard]

But you're young and hopeful.

[Nate Silver]

One problem we always had is like this was the era of when Moneyball was penetrating into major league teams. Our stars would get picked off by the Red Sox or by the Cubs or by the Astros or whatever else.

[Dax Shepard]

So from 2003 to 2008 you're at baseball Prospectus.

[Nate Silver]

Correct.

[Dax Shepard]

And you're also writing. They do books, they have monthly things and so you're actively writing. It's just interesting how all these little bits and pieces end up getting woven together and what your life becomes. How in 2008 do you decide to start fucking around with politics and applying your models to politics?

[Nate Silver]

I was spending most of my time on the baseball thing, but making most of my money on the poker thing. In 2006, the US Congress is in kind of this panic. The Republicans are still in control. So they have this congressional page scandal where Mark Foley's congressman was messaging like 13 year old pages about, hey, you know, why don't you send me some pictures? So they're trying to do something to win themselves over with Moral Majority voters. The gay marriage thing has kind of played out. And so they go after online poker. The last day in Congress, 2006, they passed this bill and I'm like, fuck these people, right?

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, so you're angry.

[Nate Silver]

So I got more into politics because A, compromised my livelihood and B, you know, I'm like these fuckers.

[Dax Shepard]

But you never know who you're pissing off. Monica.

[Monica Padman]

Yes, true. You gotta be on your toes.

[Nate Silver]

Start getting more into covering politics. Also I'm living in Chicago at the time and Obama's a big thing and he was this hipster fucking law professor. I'm like, oh, he's running for Congress. Oh, God. Who's this guy?

[Dax Shepard]

Right.

[Nate Silver]

But then he's kind of a cool guy.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. Admits to doing coke. I like that.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Nate Silver]

He looks and sounds unlike any presidential candidate before. And there's a lot of enthusiasm for him. So 2008 becomes this inflection point where I guess people thought there's so much more political participation now. I'm not trying to get too involved in the politics, but then we obviously kind of spin into all types of crazy directions after that. I mean, life, there's a lot of luck, right? Like, I hope I was lucky to be at this place where baseball stats really took off. And then lucky to be at a point where people want Moneyball for X.

[Dax Shepard]

They want to dadify everything in the world, basically.

[Nate Silver]

So I have that skill set in the right place at the right time. And then 2008 is this big inflection point where politics becomes much more crazy and interesting. All of a sudden, positive is like, not this crusty thing anymore. I'm not trying to be. But it felt like, okay, now you actually have an interesting politician you might actually want to hang out with.

[Dax Shepard]

But at any rate, 2008, you create a model to predict the outcome of that election and you start 538.

[Nate Silver]

That's right.

[Dax Shepard]

By the way, I've known 538 for, I guess, the last however long it's been going. The Electoral College has 538 members.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, members, yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Did you know that right out of.

[Monica Padman]

The gates, I only think about 270 when I think about that.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay, so there's 538 electoral votes, and you name it that.

[Nate Silver]

I don't know if I'm good or terrible at naming things.

[Dax Shepard]

Lo and behold, your model predicts the outcome of the 2008 election and the 2012 election with an accuracy that's really not rivaled at that time to the degree that time makes you one of the 100 most influential people.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, but there's deep irony here, which is the whole point of the model was to be probability driven. We're not calling Ohio for Obama. We're saying there's a 52% chance because it's just barely ahead in the polls. You had to bet you'd go 52% instead of 48.

[Dax Shepard]

So. But in 08, you got 49 of 56.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, in 50 in 2012. Because it's just kind of dumb luck, basically. Right.

[Monica Padman]

But are you being self deprecating or are you being honest?

[Dax Shepard]

Like, I can't.

[Nate Silver]

Okay, look who's going to win Alabama in 2024 of the states I could.

[Dax Shepard]

Call without a model, but. But those others, those others, man, they're kind of all over.

[Nate Silver]

So maybe one or two. Your model's a little better, right? But then you just kind of win a couple of coin flips.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, despite how easy apparently it was, you do, you nailed it. Reignite the people in a way that they do think they have their moneyball guy for politics. And so the New York Times brings you in house for three years. And I want to know what that experience was like, because you go from. You have 50:38 as its own website, and then that gets transferred to the New York Times. And I think the numbers when you came there were 1 in 20 site visits were to go to 50 38. But by the end, when you leave, like 17 out of 10, a huge percentage of their personal traffic was you.

[Nate Silver]

I just had the anxiety dream about the New York Times the other night. I just flew back from Korea. So you have this like really long periods of REM sleep where they're a little nested universe within your dreams and stuff like that. And I had some anxiety. They're like, before we let you write the Times, you have to prove your chops as a traditional reporter. And they had some very complicated story with some blind person, some tests that.

[Dax Shepard]

You were gonna fail.

[Nate Silver]

So on the one hand, it was great.

[Dax Shepard]

It's gotta be terribly exciting for you. You just started this fucking thing and four seconds ago you were at this stupid job cheating on taxes. This has got to be exciting.

[Nate Silver]

Stay within the boundaries, Gats. Stay within the boundaries. There are brilliant people in the New York Times at the time I was there, it's 2010 to 2013. It's transitioning from being this dinosaur like print media business to what's now, I think a very well run, mostly digital.

[Dax Shepard]

Is it a scary point in its history?

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, and a vulnerable point in history. 538 is quite successful there. This is when they actually are getting like a whole bunch of new subscribers for the digital product. But then you kind of run into egos mixed with kind of personnel turnover. There's a new CEO. It's a cliche, right? When they bring in the new guy and the project was the old guy's project.

[Dax Shepard]

Worst thing that can happen in the world is you've made a movie for a certain president of a studio, then a new president comes in and that president decides your marketing budget. But they are incentivized for the previous person to have been a failure. This Happens non stop. This happened to me personally and in.

[Monica Padman]

Politics, exact same thing. When a new person comes in, the old stuff all has to go.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, or fail, ideally.

[Nate Silver]

So new guy comes in. Meanwhile, at the time, the New York Times newsroom, the traditional political reporters kind of hate our guts because that election in particular 2012, was a very fucking boring election. It was Romney and Obama and maybe that's better. They're both relatively competent people, but not a whole lot is changing or moving. They're well known candidates. And so a lot of what the blog was doing 538, was saying, yeah, this movement in the polls, it's all kind of fake and nothing's really changing. Right. Which is kind of against what their reporters want you to say, where it's drama unfolding and game changing. I don't know. Once you start testing the market, eventually there were other offers that let me try to build 538 into a larger thing. Whether that was successful or not, we can.

[Dax Shepard]

So Disney ESPN comes along, three years is up at New York Times and you leave and you go to Disney, ABC, ESPN, where you're for a long, long time from 08 to 2023, no.

[Nate Silver]

Tenure from 13, okay.

[Dax Shepard]

And when you leave, there is an editor there who pretty much shits on you pretty publicly, says you were a bad fit, you were a disruptor at New York Times.

[Monica Padman]

Right.

[Dax Shepard]

At the New York Times after you departed. Now, that person then later said they regretted how they handled that, but a was that a surprise to have them take that approach where your feelings hurt or did you feel like you deserved it?

[Nate Silver]

I think the Times is not used to people turning them down very much. And I actually still freelance for the Times occasionally. Right. In the relationship now, it took 10 years to repair.

[Dax Shepard]

You wrote an op ed right before this election that I read, which is my gut tells me Trump's gonna win. Here's the statistics. But I'm telling you my gut.

[Nate Silver]

And the point was that the gut wasn't very valuable. But now I'm gonna pretend that my gut was crushing, but no. So now I have a good relationship with them instead. But they weren't used to being turned down. And the cliche was that if you turn down the Times and your career is over, which isn't really true anymore. You've had a lot of X times. People start substacks or have other success elsewhere.

[Dax Shepard]

I bet people have heard explanations, but we could stand for a concise one. Now. Why did you shit the bed so bad in 16? And why did everyone shit the Bed so bad.

[Nate Silver]

I think 2016 was actually our best election. Okay. Because I think about this as a gambler and to me the question is, what are the odds that you have relative to the consensus odds?

[Dax Shepard]

Elaborate on that.

[Nate Silver]

So our model had Trump with a 30% chance of winning. And we spent a lot of time explaining to people that Hillary does not have this election in the bag. It's a much closer race than Obama. All these states, math term, but correlated. Right. Meaning that Michigan and Wisconsin, they're all kind of the same state. If you lose one state, you'll probably lose the others. And so all that has to happen is that Trump overperforms among so called working class, white, non college voters and all of a sudden then he can win the electoral College, which is kind of what happened, basically. So to us, if you were to have invested in Amazon Stock on day one and you said, I think there's a 30% chance that Amazon, Amazon will boom into something really big. Anyone else is. That's crazy. It's only 1%. And even though you're below 50% relative to consensus, we were one of the only people who were saying that Trump really did have a shot.

[Dax Shepard]

You failed. Least bad.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Is the way we might say.

[Nate Silver]

I would put. Because again, you're getting odds. If you were gambling on the election, which I have no problem with, you're pro gambling, you could get five to one odds on Trump. Basically, five to one, six to one in 2016, two and a half to one instead. So that means that the expected value poker term, if you're able to make that bet, that would be the best sports bet in the world.

[Dax Shepard]

Right. Because you personally have Trump at 3 to 1 and the odds have him.

[Nate Silver]

At 5 to 1 or 6 to 1.

[Dax Shepard]

So for you, that's a great bet.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah. You're gonna lose most of the time, but you get 5x6x your money when you're right.

[Dax Shepard]

Gotcha.

[Nate Silver]

That's not how 99.9% of the political audience thinks. But we did take care, though, to emphasize the uncertainty to the point that we were getting yelled at. People like, we just think Nate's Toronto just get more web traffic.

[Dax Shepard]

And I will say you're a victim of the data. You're sourcing. So maybe also some of the data. I guess there's a big mystery of why these polls.

[Nate Silver]

So the most concise explanation is that people who are more college educated, who read the news more are more likely to respond to surveys. Oh, exciting. A pollster called in the phone. Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

And my Opinion is valuable. It should be recorded.

[Nate Silver]

Of course.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, I always go the other way. It's like, who's dumb enough to want to chat with a stranger? Like, you gotta be so bored.

[Nate Silver]

Well, people with high social trust answer all types of surveys more. Right, but who has high social trust? It's Democrats. They are the establishment system party now, which didn't used to be true as much. Right. Obama was like the disruptive candidate. His electorate was younger. His electorate was black, Hispanic. Now, the Democrats are kind of the party of college white liberals. They're very trusting of the media, and so they both respond to polls more and vote Democratic more. And so if you don't adjust for that, you're going to have your poll over sample Democrats. As a technical term, I'm using slightly incorrectly on purpose, but you're going to end up with not enough Trump voters in your poll if Trump voters don't trust the media. And you're not accounting for that in some respect.

[Dax Shepard]

Right? Right. Yeah, I guess some faction of the Trump base hates the media to a degree that if someone from the media called or a pollster called, they would say fuck you and hang up.

[Nate Silver]

And it's not that they even lie about who they're supporting. I mean, Trump voters are proud, it's just that they aren't being reached in the first place. Right. They're not picking up strangers phone calls. If they are, they're not gonna wanna spend 15 minutes and take a survey. And that can shift. After the first assassination attempt against Trump, there's a lot more enthusiasm. Like, I'm proud to be a Trump supporter. Certainly in 2016, maybe the Trump supporters were not easy to reach.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay, so. So you do 10 years there and how was that experience? Cause I gotta say, I feel this parallel existence for us. So we create this little thing in the attic and then all of a sudden Spotify comes along and I would say that was your New York Times kind of. Well, we could be a part of this really big thing. And there are lots of advantages. These are interesting experiences where you have this little thing that you know very well and you potentially go somewhere to make it bigger. And that is kind of a roll of the dice. A roll of the dice.

[Nate Silver]

There are a couple of big problems. One is that we've lear, but they have me doing a bunch of management stuff. That's not my comparative advantage, to put it kindly. I mean, I'm okay, but it's like exactly the part of my brain I don't want to be using. I need time to just get in the zone and get in a flow state and like, write kinky with those numbers. Yeah, no, I don't want to have to respond to some email about this person wants an X percent raise. But the main issue is. So I get in there and John Skipper, who is the head of ESPN at the time, he's like, nate, don't worry about it. We're just going to just make great content. I'm giving him a think or something next to me.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, good, good, good. Yeah, yeah. We work in archetypes.

[Nate Silver]

You'll never have to worry about any. Anything. Right.

[Dax Shepard]

Lean into it.

[Nate Silver]

That's actually like, a bad thing. I like John Skipper a lot, but he had some personal issues. Kind of the same thing again. Somebody new takes over and they don't have this mandate. And all of a sudden Espin's like, well, we have the TV business and theme parks. That's robust unless there's a global pandemic or something like that. Right?

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Nate Silver]

Like, all their businesses, like, begin to hit headwinds. And we were set up as, literally as like, kind of a loss leader. Not even that big a line item on Disney's budget, but they're like, it's not really worth. Worth it. If we're losing 5 million instead of making 5 million, who cares? But then when you're under financial pressure, like, that is not going to hold up very well. So we're kind of in a point of stasis where there's no business model. When you don't have a business model, then it's hard to do anything, really. I'm not sure what you're optimizing for exactly. And then there's also the issue of if you're creative, then everyone wants to have this brand expansion, but if you're the major creative force, it only expands so much. People want you ultimately. Right?

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Nate Silver]

There are ways around that. There are some things that do scale, like the models that we build to get a lot of traffic. And I could hire somebody now. And we're kind of in the process of doing this all over again at the Substick Silver Bulletin now, but much slower. I thought we have to hire as many people as possible right now. When you get to espn, I talked to Bill Simmons was at Grantland before that, and he's like, everything that you want, ask for it right now. Right. Because you'll never have more leverage than you'll have right now.

[Dax Shepard]

They're in the wooing you phase.

[Nate Silver]

Yes. Ask for, like, business class travel because it's a reasonable thing if you're busy. Right. But if you ask for that in the next contract negotiation when you're losing money, then ask. Lock that in right now.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, yeah, that's sage advice.

[Nate Silver]

But then you kind of wind up with 25 people all starting new at the same time. And we didn't understand that you need to have like a product team and like an advertising team. And it was just kind of an awkward fit. Disney is a wonderful and creative place in certain ways, but it does things at very large scale. Everything is eight or nine figure budgets for like an NFL deal or a movie or a theme park. I mean, the whole city of Orlando is basically the 51st state is Walt Disney World. Basically, right? Yeah, yeah.

[Monica Padman]

It's an enormous corporation.

[Nate Silver]

Disney's very, very big picture. They were like, he's a creative. He doesn't have to deal with money. It's like, no, actually I like making money. I like business. Right. I'd like for this to be like a growing business because anytime you try to hire somebody, we hired good people. But like, what's the long term plan? We're like, well, we don't know you like this. It's under contract for three more years, so why would you worry about it? And all of journalism sucks, so you're not gonna have job security anywhere. And that's a very hard pitch. And so it is also partly my own ego. I don't know why I felt like I want to be like one of those 1970s magazine editors. Right? We're like drinking wine as you're finishing the. Sure.

[Dax Shepard]

A Cosmopolitan man. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Nate Silver]

Argyle socks. I'm not sure what's happening exactly.

[Dax Shepard]

Stay tuned for more armchair expert if you dare. We are supported by Squarespace. Maybe you've got dreams of turning your hobby into a side hustle this year or finally opening an online store. Maybe you want to share your knowledge with the world and make an online course. Squarespace is the perfect partner to take your website to the next level and help you accomplish your 2025 go. No matter what type of site you want to build, Squarespace can help you make it. If you're starting an online store, Squarespace makes checkout seamless. Their flexible payment options, including credit cards, PayPal and Apple Pay, make it easy for your customers to check out. And Squarespace has all the tools you need to create and sell your own online course. Start with a layout that fits your brand. Upload videos and customize everything with next generation editing technology. Create engaging lessons your audience will love. Then add a paywall and set the price, take what you know and turn it into income. We use Squarespace to make our lovely website incredible.

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And it functions, it's pretty, it's effective.

[Dax Shepard]

It'S efficient and highly functional.

[Monica Padman]

Yes.

[Dax Shepard]

Head to squarespace.com for a free trial and when you're ready to get started, go to squarespace.comdax to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain. That's squarespace.com dax to get started Today we are supported by All All State. Some people just know they could save hundreds on car insurance by checking All State first. Like, you know to check your sunroof first before driving through the car wash. Like you know to put the leash on your dog first before you open the door to go for a walk. Not that I've ever made that mistake and had my dog run outside without me or scream his name repeatedly over and over and over again until I found him. Or, you know, to check that the guy who asked you out is an armchair first before you agree to go on a date with them. Sage advice essential. Checking first is smart, so check Allstate first for a quote that could save you hundreds. You're in good hands with Allstate. This content is intended for audiences in the US Only. Savings vary Terms apply Allstate Fire and Casualty Insurance Company and Affiliates Northbrook, Illinois we are supported by Skims. You know I was just in my Skims tank top last night taking a.

[Monica Padman]

Little snooze, wasn't it? So cozy. Everything is so soft and so comfortable and so cute. You know, I have a bunch of their products I've I've acquired over the years and I love them all. All for different occasions. The bras are really something special because it's really hard to find a good comfortable bra that's also chic and they have a really good one. The Fits Everybody T shirt bra. It really does fit everybody. I have gifted this and big hit. It's a big, big hit and I.

[Dax Shepard]

Wear the tank tops when I go to sleep. I couldn't be happier. Shop Skims Best Intimates, including the Fits Everybody collection and [e-mail] and skim stores. After you place your order, be sure to let them know we sent you select podcast in the survey and select our show in the drop down menu that follows. And if you're looking for the perfect gift for your valentine or for yourself, Skims just launched their best Valentine shop ever, available in sizes for women, men, kids and even pets. Okay, so you're there for a while, but you also, in 2012, you write the Signal and the Noise. And that's a really successful book. My apologies, I haven't read that one. And the fact that I read on the Edge is really kind of a fluke. I always go to audible and I know exactly what I'm going there to get. And I just happen to stumble upon your book.

[Nate Silver]

That's cool.

[Dax Shepard]

I'm vaguely aware of you. I know that you're statistics genius. And I'm like, yeah, I'm gonna give this book a shot. And I can't imagine this has gotten back to you, but I've brought it up now a bazillion times on the show because there's so many little pieces of on the Edge that I really, really enjoy. Very thought provoking. I think your outsider ness and some degree of disagreeability I appreciate greatly. And the book, it's sprinkled throughout. I like the spirit of it.

[Nate Silver]

Thank you.

[Dax Shepard]

In a nutshell, the examination of this book is a group of people you refer to as the river, which of course is a Texas hold'em term. It's the last card that comes out.

[Nate Silver]

The last card. Cause supposedly in the old riverboat days in poker's origin, if the dealer was crooked and cheated or was suspected of cheating and the last card affected the hand, he'd be thrown into the Mississippi River.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, I like that.

[Nate Silver]

Possible origin of that term.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, yeah. If not, let's keep it. Cause it's so fun.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, I like that.

[Dax Shepard]

The turn.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, that's the second to last one.

[Nate Silver]

Flop, turn, river.

[Monica Padman]

Got it.

[Dax Shepard]

And so for people who don't play Texas Hold'em, the stakes go up and up and up. Because you're given two cards you've already perhaps put in the ante. And generally you wanna see the FL for free. You're gonna get three whole cards. Now you're gonna have five. You have some sense of what your hand is and then it just diminishes it from there, where at the end you're hoping for a single card to change your destiny. So obviously the risk level's going up and the stakes are going up.

[Nate Silver]

It's a game of escalation. Let's say you're playing a $5, $10 hold em game, which is a medium sized game and you have $5,000 on the table. So the first bet, typically in that game, someone would bet 30 bucks to try and win the 5 bucks and the 10 bucks. Relatively small money. And fighting for those $15 wor things can escalate and escalate until all $5000 are on the table, or even more than that potentially. And so it's a game of escalation.

[Dax Shepard]

But escalation and reduced options. I guess that's implicit in a game of escalation. But you're getting less and less options.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah. As you get to the river, then there are fewer cards that can come. And it's called the game tree. You can imagine a branch prunes out and then narrows again toward the end. But the more money on the table, the deeper you can get because you can raise and re raise and check, raise and all these things. It's a very complex game. Actually. It took longer solve poker than to solve chess. It is kind of solved now. I mean, we can get into what that means. Exactly.

[Dax Shepard]

Tell me. Yeah, because a computer AI can play chess better than a human. I can play go better than a.

[Nate Silver]

Human and it can kind of play poker better than a human. Although there are a lot of caveats there. Right. One is that humans are not playing poker perfectly. The whole thing you learn about poker strategy. We actually like study how computers play poker. But they. Oh, computers. I must be very honest, computers fucking bluff all the time. One discovery they made is that you have to bluff a ton in poker. That's what makes people have an incentive to pay you off when you have a real hand.

[Dax Shepard]

And I've played a bunch of Texas Holden. But even reading your first few chapters, which are about gambling in general, there were a few things in there. I was like, oh, wow, it's down to science. I forget the ratio you give. But there's a known percentage you should bluff to make yourself reputable and get paid when you have it.

[Nate Silver]

Right. It depends on the size of the pot and depends on cards that come in other things. Right. But you have to bluff a lot. And also concealing information, although it's intuitive, if you think it's poker, it's a game of limited information. But you want to be very deceptive. Sometimes you want to slow play with a strong hand. That's very important. Or check a strong hand just to avoid giving away too much information.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, ideally you know your opponent, how they play, and you're now counter punching.

[Nate Silver]

If you know that a certain player bluffs just a little bit too much. Then all of a sudden a huge number of your hands are calling. It would be folding before or vice versa. Or things like this player tends to make a big bet when they have a bad hand as a bluff and a small bet when they Have a good. You love that type of player, right? It's like, okay, so now when you have a good hand, I can get away cheaply, maybe even fold or at least pay you only a small amount. But when you're making a big bluff and you're not balancing your strategy, it's extremely psychological.

[Monica Padman]

Maybe 100% for sure.

[Nate Silver]

It's maybe 70, 30, math versus psychology. And it's also like a type of discipline in the abstract. There are computer programs you can study with and coaching videos. I have a poker coach who's kind of the poker equivalent of a trainer, basically. But can you execute when all of a sudden you're playing for, like $50,000.

[Dax Shepard]

Or at the final table of some tournament?

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, and I played in, like, the World Series poker a lot. I made day six of the main event. By the time you make it to day six, every pot is literally worth a couple hundred thousand dollars. You don't get to cash that in right away. My parents would like, oh, you have a million chips and, like, you want a million bucks. Like, no, I have chips and, like, the exchange rates, like, 10 to 1. And the World Series, the main event, there are 10,000 players now. There are not 10,000 good poker players in the United States. Right. And so, like, they're amateurs and they're so nervous, they're, like, shaking. And so, like, it becomes learning how to deal with a flow state and a little bit of stage fright and executing in those high pressure situations that when you do it enough. I'm a very talented amateur.

[Dax Shepard]

He's won $840,000 in tournament play.

[Monica Padman]

Then how can you be an amateur?

[Nate Silver]

That's gross. Not net, that's gross.

[Dax Shepard]

I know we're always talking about gr. Let's focus on the winnings right now so I can prove to her you're a good poker player.

[Nate Silver]

Kind of develop like a little bit of a sicko tendency where you're like, I feel more alive when I'm playing for real money and more focused and in a weird, fucked up way, even like a little bit more relaxed. I don't know. It's weird.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, there's all these different social science studies where they measure testosterone levels of day traders. They measure testosterone levels of poker players. There's a biological component, too, that's happening.

[Nate Silver]

There absolutely is. And this is one thing it took me a while to learn, and I learned it by talking to these. One guy who consulted with traders actually was a neuroscientist and studied these Wall street traders. Like, these people are fucking Crazy. They think they're so rational, but they're not. Talk to an astronaut, talk to a guy who's trained fighter pilots, talk to a guy who trained professional golfers. And they kind of all say the same thing, which is your body is working on a different chemical system, a different operating system when you're under stress. And actually a good athlete will have a higher escalation in his or her heart rate under stress. A trainer will have higher spikes in testosterone and dopamine and things like that. That's okay because it means that your body's reacting to stress. When you learn in poker, I'm not gon feel the same playing a $10,000 pot as in a $5 pot in my beer league game on Tuesday night. Learning like, okay, I can start to master that or at least fuck up less than other people. When you learn that, then that becomes kind of powerful.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay, so the book isolates this group that you refer to as the river. And these are people who have a great appetite for risk. They have a pretty good evaluation of risk. They have a certain rejection of the commonly held wisdom. There's some traits and then you to profile a select group of people and among them. And there's more. But we do Doyle Brunson, a very famous poker player. And then we do Peter Thiel, the venture capitalist. You do Sam Bankman, Fried, which is very interesting from of course ftx. And then you do Sam Altman. So these are people that all would fall into this group you refer to as the river. They live in the risk analysis world. World. And I think maybe could we start with Peter Thiel?

[Nate Silver]

In some ways, Peter Thiel is the most curious one of the bunch because a most is guys and there are lots of women in the book too, but it's heavily more men than women.

[Dax Shepard]

Testosterone's playing a big role in a.

[Nate Silver]

Lot of this, I think testosterone in ego and entitlement and who is afforded the privilege of gambling in a probabilistic way. So he is someone who's known as being quite risk averse. He wanted to sell PayPal early on and protect his downside. He's also quite religious.

[Dax Shepard]

He's a unique individual. He's gay, deeply religious.

[Monica Padman]

What's his religion?

[Nate Silver]

Do we know he was German? I don't know.

[Monica Padman]

He's a Christian of some sort.

[Dax Shepard]

He's a right wing ish gay man. That's always interesting to me.

[Nate Silver]

He is a very literate intellectual in a way that Elon Musk is brilliant in many ways. He kind of has like a 12 year old's mindset. Whereas Teal, he's quoting from scripture and philosophy, the classics.

[Dax Shepard]

He's a brilliant, brilliant.

[Nate Silver]

He was like, okay, well, Nate, 10 years ago, all this Moneyball shit was the frontier, but now it's all been internalized. And now a contrarian thing is actually to trust your gut more because all the nerds have taken over everything and so there's no alpha. It would be the trading term from just running the models that everyone else has.

[Dax Shepard]

That's no longer an advantage the Moneyball thing's been played to. Its logical.

[Nate Silver]

I think it's probably fairly close to being true. But he was an early adopter of Trump in 2016. He kind of will say that. Oh, I thought it was a good contrarian bet that maybe the odds are 50%, not Nate's 30% and definitely not the conventional wisdom 10%. I think Trump probably matches a lot of his political leanings anyway. But you have to give him some credit for understanding that. Silicon Valley's interests and the progressive interests would clash in lots of different ways. Silicon Valley would come under scrutiny for lots of good and bad reasons. What are the effects of cell phones and social media? What are the effects of very powerful people owning individual media brands or all the satellites? The tremendous accumulation of wealth. At the same time, Silicon Valley has a cliched image of itself where it's like, we are the ones who think differently and we are contrarian. We're disruptors. In some ways. It's still quite important, Impressive. Despite all the things that America fucks up, we still have the best talent from all around the world. Coming to California in particular, coming to Silicon Valley, even though it's kind of like a place that's very expensive and unlivable in certain ways. But we still have that and our economy is still growing. Our lifespans are not. We're making this trade off, which might be bad.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Nate Silver]

Silicon Valley understands that growth is vital and technology, eight times out of 10 is good. And they understand probability. They understand that if you are making a lot of high upside, high risk bets, if you make enough of those, actually they pay off pretty well, right? If you like a 1 in 10 chance of having 100 extra investment, it's like a really good bet in the long run. Those basic things, Right. Overcomes a lot of all types of problems, being very pilled on some issues. And it's very male and very white and Asian. It's always had a lot of ego. And I think Trump winning further inflates Those egos.

[Dax Shepard]

I just think it's really wild that in our lifetime there was this movie called Revenge of the Nerds, which was completely unthinkable. And the notion was, yeah, these jocks have made it insufferable to live here, but now the nerds are the jocks. And now we're seeing their version of it. And guess what? No one's version of it. All that great people with power and privilege act the way they do.

[Nate Silver]

People have an amazing ability to feel like they're disempowered or aggrieved when objectively speaking, Peter Thiel and Mark Andreessen and Elon, they're doing really well, right? Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Nate Silver]

They're as wealthy as any people have ever been in the history of the universe. Or the world at least.

[Dax Shepard]

Shape the world they live in pretty dramatically.

[Nate Silver]

And the book gives them a perfectly fair shake. They're kind of sore winners. The average Silicon Valley CEO is still probably a progressive Democrat. There was a much more sizable Trump faction, kind of anticipated that. People make the mistake of assuming that things just kind of trend linearly upward forever. Right. And the world's a story more or less of mean reversion. There is a broad based conservative backlash on cultural issues. Yes. It might be peaking right about now.

[Dax Shepard]

This is my own personal digestion of what just went down. To me, it feels very obvious. This was an election on wokeism. I mean, just watch the rights ads, and they were about almost a single issue. How do you feed that into an algorithm? You don't.

[Nate Silver]

You're looking at the polls. For better or worse, we're just looking at the polls and economic data and not trying to answer the why questions as much. We kind of leave that up to the pundits. I suppose. The they them ad is partly about wokeness, but also about other things. Right. It's about taxpayer money. It's about Kamala Harris seeming kind of out of touch in different ways. It's about illegal undocumented immigration. It's about flip flopping. It might be the most played ad in TV history because it's about more than one thing. Republicans tried to run on transgender rights in 2022 in the midterm. Didn't have that much success with it. I voted for Harris. Full disclosure, I didn't think it was that close.

[Dax Shepard]

I did too.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah. People need to be able to have a healthy degree of skepticism without going off the deep end. This seems to be very hard for people. Partisanship is a drug. It's a cliche.

[Dax Shepard]

Both sides. It's a cancer. I'm watching the people on the right celebrate that LA's burning down. And I want to just say, if it brings you great joy that your countrymen are losing everything, their children don't have a bedroom anymore. If that gives you pleasure. You must admit your politics is a cancer on both sides. When people on the left are stoked, people are dying of COVID Your politics are a cancer at that point.

[Nate Silver]

This is still like an ongoing.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, it's happening.

[Dax Shepard]

We're in the middle of it.

[Nate Silver]

Right. So it's not even like recriminations.

[Monica Padman]

Exactly.

[Nate Silver]

And how that started just instantly, immediately is political. You just won this election. You're gonna gain a lot of power and you get nice little revenge against the left. But just chill out.

[Monica Padman]

Chill out for a week.

[Nate Silver]

Really?

[Monica Padman]

Anything?

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, just take a breather.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, my God. That's part of the problem because it's those people. If they were quiet, maybe other people wouldn't be like, oh, I'm happy their houses are burning down. But Trump is literally calling him Gavin Newscomb right now. Are you kidding me? You're our president.

[Nate Silver]

It's like the shill to chill ratio. I had some concept I'm workshopping. In the short run. Shill kind of works. People are called to action and alarmed. And I kind of go back to September 11 and the patriotism phase. And that works in the short run. Right. But a lot of people get tired of it. There are good critiques you can make of everything from controlled burning practices in California to the expense of various public services, to the fact that if there is climate change, then needing to be more realistic and prepared for the type of housing that you're building in vulnerable areas. But instead it turns it as some. Thinking about DEI and the lesbian.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, yeah, yeah.

[Nate Silver]

I kind of want the lesbian fire chief to have like reality TV show if they get fired because they seem like these charismatic personalities. Right. Just let people process.

[Dax Shepard]

It's a bummer. I guess where I differ from some of my peers is it's on both sides. It's just a fucking gnarly metastasis, metastasized cancer that all of us have. Yeah.

[Nate Silver]

I mean, there was one Democrat, there was a picture now of like the McDonald's burning in 100 degree storm fire. She's like, this proves what corporate politics are doing to the climate. It's like, yeah, you can maybe wait.

[Dax Shepard]

It's kind of a gross level of opportunism. Okay. Peter Thiel, all to say, he did do these revolutionary things at the time. With his founders fund as his company. Yeah. And we even heard this when we listened to the Meta AI thing. This decision to. To bet on founders and not try to wrestle control away from founders and have this belief in them in a way that was pretty new and novel at the time. They took this approach.

[Nate Silver]

It's almost like they don't need to know what the idea is. They just want to believe in the founders.

[Dax Shepard]

I love that you say the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting, the more trustworthy you are so far.

[Nate Silver]

Well, Sam Bankman Fried kind of played into this cliche. He's kind of self described on the spectrum and not a guy who's going to wear a suit and tie, but he's like, if I am playing video games in investor pitch meetings, that will make me seem cool that I have so much ram I need to offload something that playing a video game while I'm multitasking. And so he kind of played in that stereotype and was quite deliberate because the very intense pattern matchers, Zuckerberg, he was kind of seen as like nerd in a hoodie and not the world's best communicator and just wanted to grind all day and engineering problems that became the prototype that was used or Steve Jobs, a slightly different prototype, for example. And this can make it harder for new prototypes to break through. I'm not trying to be super PC here, but the fact that there's so little money going to women founders and so little money going to black founders and Hispanic founders is kind of insane. If, if you're the industry that wants to be disruptive and wants high variance grit and all these things, they're such intense pattern matchers and because they kind of can't lose, the average venture capital firm, mediocre firm isn't doing that well. But the top firms kind of can't lose if you have the best talent from all around the world. It's like if every year the best team in the NBA got the number one draft pick.

[Dax Shepard]

Right. All the very best players came and begged to be on a team.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay, so let's talk about Sam Bankman Fried, because you spent a lot of time with him and why do you think he was willing to sit with.

[Monica Padman]

You just in case people don't know?

[Dax Shepard]

Oh yeah, let's do a little quick history of who he is, how he created FTX and even what FTX was. Because I do think the layman, they hear it all the time, but they're not sure what happened.

[Nate Silver]

So Sam Bickman Freed was a nerdy, mathy kid. His parents were professors at Stanford. I think his mother was a philosophy professor. His dad was a law professor. Like a lot of smart kids, got initially into finance at a firm called Jane Street Capital, which is a big quantitative. At some point he also got into something called effective altruism. Basically it's Moneyball, but for charity. It was kind of the pitch.

[Dax Shepard]

Earmarked that because my very favorite part of the entire book was the effective altruism part. Okay, So I want to talk a lot about that, but let's just earmark that. He got into that. So he's at some kind of financial.

[Nate Silver]

Place working for a hedge fund. This is in his internal monologue that is probably unreliable to some degree, but he's like, so I want to make a lot of money so I can like donate it to poor children in Africa. This is kind of the cliched version of it. To help prevent malaria at a very cost effective rate. Then do much other weirder too, involving AI and animal welfare and things like that. He's like, I'm not making enough money at this hedge fund and so I'm going to start my own firm. His co founder quits, right? Because he seems kind of crazy. And one thing you learn about the book is all these people who think of themselves as hyper rational and are thought of as by others as hyper rational. A lot of it just kind of degenerate gambler at heart, often skilled and.

[Dax Shepard]

Smart, determining, incredibly impulsive.

[Nate Silver]

Right, Impulsive and kind of stimulus driven.

[Dax Shepard]

He's also on Adderall, right?

[Nate Silver]

He said that wasn't that big a part of the story.

[Dax Shepard]

If you live on math, I mean, I don't know how much you can discount that.

[Nate Silver]

I mean, if you play enough poker where you have enough of a sample size, where you see how things that affect yourself, like if you're hungry, then you're playing poker for like 12 years. I just want to bust out so I can go get a fucking steak or something.

[Dax Shepard]

You don't even know you're trying to get out.

[Nate Silver]

You're making all these marginal high stress decisions and the cumulative effect of anything that you're doing, maybe Adderall or nicotine, whatever. You can understand why people might like that, right? But it's going to affect performance and mentality. Long story short, starts a fund called Alameda, kind of has some fallout there, but begins to make more and more money. Eventually realizes if you really want to get rich quick, then there are certain crypto trades that look Like a very good bet. Leveraging different prices of bitcoin in Japan versus South Korea versus other things.

[Dax Shepard]

But does the price of bitcoin vary throughout the globe?

[Nate Silver]

At the time there were pretty big arbitrages because I believe this is right in South Korea, you had to be a registered agent to trade bitcoin or like a residential of South Korea. And they were pretty strict about it, at least at first. And this was back when bitcoin was a somewhat more obscure thing. And so, yeah, if you could somehow find a way to buy bitcoin in South Korea, but makes this money and then founds ftx, which is a crypto.

[Dax Shepard]

Exchange, which I don't even understand how a crypto exchange works. My understanding is like you go buy crypto, you have a password and it exists. I don't know why is someone else ever involved?

[Nate Silver]

So first of all, I have to find somebody to sell me crypto, which is not a completely trivial problem. And you have to enter this 26 digit code and you can see what crypto a bit intimidating. Whereas if you go to like an FTX or Coinbase or a Gemini, then it's just E trade.

[Dax Shepard]

All right, I got this much amount of money and I want to convert.

[Nate Silver]

It to deposit 20,000 bucks from your bank account. You press a button, you buy bitcoin, they take more of a surcharge than they probably should. But now I own bitcoin, which technically you actually don't. They are just allocating that to your bank account and they own the bitcoin. But usually that was respected. I can't sleep for all these firms. In principle, your crypto is supposed to be segregated, so you can't then go have a run on the bank. At ftx it wasn't because Sam thought, oh, I'm very good at making trades and I want to make the world better through effective altruism. So like we have 8 billion billion in customer deposits in crypto. Wouldn't it be a shame if I just left that sitting there in some account instead of making these awesome trades with it?

[Dax Shepard]

And of course he thought it was unutilized money.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, he's like, well, I am trying to give my money away to charity and. Or to become infinitely powerful, he thought could become president with some probability. Literally, he wanted to be like the world's first trillionaire.

[Monica Padman]

These are also counter. I want to be so altruistic and I want to be the president and a trillionaire.

[Dax Shepard]

Trillionaire.

[Nate Silver]

A little suspicious.

[Monica Padman]

This is wild.

[Dax Shepard]

Also, just what a goal. It sounds like an 8 year old.

[Monica Padman]

It's what you wrote down. I want to be president. When you were 11 years old.

[Nate Silver]

I grew out of it.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Nate Silver]

He even thought he could become president before he was age 35 by, like, lobbying to get the rules changed.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay, who was the big backer of ftx?

[Nate Silver]

Alfred Lynn was a partner there. But, you know, Sequoia is a very well respected firm.

[Dax Shepard]

One of the greats. Their position in the book is just. Yeah, it's one of the ones that didn't work out. They're not even smart in the way you would think. Think someone was smart. They said they would do it again. Right.

[Nate Silver]

All that can happen is it goes to zero. So you go from one to zero. Eh, who cares? Right. You go from one to infinity, then that outweighs a lot of one to zeros. So they were at least honest with saying, we do this again. Now, there is some, I believe, shareholder action. So this is the rare case where there could be additional liability, but probably not too bad. But the other part of it is, if you become successful in any different field relatively young, you can notice how people change around you. And I'm sure it's true in Hollywood, but it's also true in the nerdier occupations.

[Dax Shepard]

Right?

[Monica Padman]

Yes. Yes.

[Dax Shepard]

So we've interviewed McCaskill, and we adore him.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

And I had some quiet pushback that I didn't know quite how to articulate. And I thought your book did a really good job of pointing out some gaps in it. So maybe lay out effective altruism.

[Nate Silver]

So effective altruism originally kind of meant what it sounded like, which is, how can we find more effective ways to give money to charity?

[Dax Shepard]

Just look at what Bill Gates has been doing for the last 15 years. Like, how do we get the most bang for our buck?

[Nate Silver]

How do we save flights? Instead of the $10 million we put on the average, government agencies actually put a value on human life based on how people behave in the US which is 10 million. So that mindset, though, becomes quite fraught, even though I think it's right. You're putting a value now on different things. So that already is a little bit fraught. What is the value of donating to the symphony, for example? Like, a little bit harder to quantify. Okay. Or we can start to ask some other questions. Well, effective altruists mostly believe in animal welfare, which I see is a good thing. But how much are we trading the welfare of different animals against each other? One example given the book is that there was a puppy, a poodle, who got stuck in the city subway system a few years ago and should we stop the entire F train to rescue Dakota? And they decided to stop the F train. But like, you wouldn't do that for a squirrel. You'd run over a fucking squirrel. Or like a cat probably gets run over and a dog. We just assign enough moral value. Then it gets weird. They're like, okay, well look at the number of neurons that an animal has.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, really quick, let's just walk that one through. So that really happened. Dakota the dog wandered into the subway. They shut it down. It was down for a couple hours. And you simply say, really quick, let's do a generic loss of wages. Well, generic loss of wages of that one little situation was 2 million. So how many humans can you save for 2 million instead? Then what about all the hospital workers that were waiting for their train? Did humans die because they weren't on their shift?

[Nate Silver]

All these solutions in Covid were terrible. It was terrible to have all these people get sick. It was terrible to shut down schools. But you have to make trade offs.

[Dax Shepard]

And you delineate the difference between small world problems and big world problems. These statistical analysis are really quite good at small world problems. But as you get into big world problems, these are almost impossible.

[Nate Silver]

People like, don't respect the boundaries enough. I'll worry if I'm making a model in baseball or politics or basketball. Oh, this player is 10% underestimated. But the data is very good and we know how the system works. We know the rules of the game. Literally. You have little errors and mistakes, but pretty accurate. Whereas in these big open ended problems, you're just kind of making shit up on the back of an envelope and sometimes the best you can do. We had to make these decisions again under Covid and maybe if we'd been more thoughtful about them, like, what is the cost of shutting down school in Los Angeles for 19 months? You know, we probably should have done more back of the envelope math there, which I think would have said probably a bad idea even given these uncertain assumptions. But people don't know when they go from these closed problems that are amenable to modeling to these open problems where it's just regurgitated assumptions over and over, over and over again. So what's happened though, with ea, the mandate kind of expanded for various reasons, from charitable giving to any problem involving utility, meaning, how do we make the world better? More questions. Who's deciding what constitutes. Yeah, what's better better and for whom? What if I make myself infinitely happy and the Rest of you are my slaves. You could say, well, Nate has infinite units of utility and you guys have 0.01 because you're not physically dead. Maybe you get to watch TV once a week or something.

[Monica Padman]

He's so generous.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, you get Arby's now and then, right?

[Dax Shepard]

One of the things I really loved about what you pointed out. I made the people I was on vacation with in Mexico City over Christmas suffer through my regurgitation of you is utilitarianism, which we learn in philosophy the ends justify the means. If it has a better outcome for more people, that's good. I didn't even think of the simplest thing. The reason we're just naturally drawn to that is it has the illusion of numbers. We can assign numbers and when we get into these very ambiguous, hard to decide moral issues that are nuanced, four is bigger than three. That's very comforting. I think we underestimate how comforted we are by the notion of utilitarianism because you have a bigger number than a smaller number. And even the trolley one that we all know, you're on a trolley, it's gonna hit three people. You can pull a lever, it'll hit one person. Well, three lives saved is better than one. But what if the three dudes just gang raped somebody and the life you're gonna kill is on the verge of curing cancer? If someone much more complicated than all lives have the same value?

[Nate Silver]

I have built models. I know how even when you have awesome data like you have in baseball, it's like a game that has structure and rules. I know how much you can have a garbage in, garbage out problem. And some parameters are robust when you can change them and the output's about the same and some are not. Meaning you make an assumption and it totally radically changes and overwhelms everything else in the system. One irony is, in some ways I trust the poker players more and the traders more, and people like that because they actually have skin in the game.

[Dax Shepard]

If they are wrong, they'll be penalized an outcome. Right. One of the things he did, Sam, was dump $12 million into this very small election up in Oregon. It's detailed in the book. And in fact, I had a friend tell me so excitedly. He said, do you know Sam Bankman Fried? He asked Trump how much money to walk away from the election, and the number was X. And he's like, can you imagine how great that would be? And I was like, I'm sorry, that's not great. To subvert democracy, whether you like the guy or hate the guy Guy. No buying off. What if someone offered Obama $12 billion in 2008 to walk away? You can't use your money to take away an option for people to vote on. That is fundamentally wrong. But it flies under this banner of effective altruism. You could definitely argue a utilitarian point of view on that. You know, now we get into contiism. There has to be a principle called democracy that rises above all that.

[Nate Silver]

So in some ways the demise of Twitter was mispredicted. Right? People thought, oh, the engineers will leave and Twitter will basically collapse the infrastructure. Which it hasn't happened. It remains very influential. But you could that Elon Musk spent $44 billion, certainly by the time he bought it and was trying to find ways out, probably knowing that's like not a good ROI from a hero financial.

[Dax Shepard]

He's going to lose money on that.

[Nate Silver]

But he's willing to spend, let's say, half of that, right? Let's say the real value is 20 billion. So he's spending $25 billion on the cultural and political project and maybe it's paid off. He's still the richest man in the world. In fact, his wealth has only increased since Trump's election. So it's kind of pocket change to him. And I think it has had a huge effect on the discourse. I don't blame Silicon Valley for saying, hey, we're going to stand up and defend our interests. I think they felt that they were getting a hard time from the White House on antitrust stuff, which maybe they should get. I'm just saying this is their mindset and they're tired of their woke progressive employees. And meanwhile the news media has become very anti tech.

[Dax Shepard]

There's like an agrarian movement right now against billionaires. I'm watching the Frontline two hour on China right now and I'm like, guys, we're kind of inching towards this agrarian hate.

[Nate Silver]

It's this weird like barber pole thing where somehow Donald Trump, I don't even wanna get into Donald Trump's but because he's a kind of poor person's idea of like a rich person, he kind of gets a pass.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, that's really true.

[Nate Silver]

The left feels aggrieved and the right feels aggrieved when someone's on a winning streak. And this is also talked about in the book and this stuff about how traitors behave and how poker players behave. You're getting so much fucking dopamine that when you're on a winning streak, especially men, it's literally narcotic. You can't really be reasoned with.

[Dax Shepard]

I love that chapter on effective altruism. And it's very interesting to have you sit with Sam Brinkman freed and have him basically try to woo you while also real time watching his empire crash and getting more and more accepting of the notion that he's probably gonna go to jail.

[Nate Silver]

I mean, I interviewed him four or five days before he got arrested and taken into custody. So his mind is reeling like it's a video game trying to figure out how can I somehow get out of this mess. He was someone I actually found it kind of hard to generate empathy for, in part because last time I talked to him was in Palo Alto, California. He's at his parents house under house arrest. You have to give away all your electronics and like writing on this hotel notepad. I had, I hadn't actually written that much, so I can't make small letters anymore. I don't think it's like the landing form on the aircraft. Like I can't use. I can't.

[Dax Shepard]

I can't even see these questions.

[Nate Silver]

He has like an ankle bracelet. This is serious, right? And then I asked him, what if you could get two years probation, you settled the court case. And at the time people kind of knew he was pretty dead to rights. It's like, yeah, I'd have to think about it. I was like, yeah, 20 years. Instead, by the way, testified in his trial in New York against, I guess not the advice of his counsel, but against the advice of other lawyers that I spoke with. He was just going to perjure himself, which is what he did, and really pissed off the judge. So he's actually kind of a very miscalculating type.

[Dax Shepard]

So let's just close with Sam Altman. So he is running OpenAI and he's in the river. What did he do in the past that from your assessment, would qualify him as being someone that has got a big appetite for risk?

[Nate Silver]

So he worked for a firm called Young Combinator, which is an incubator. So they would go through and look at lots of very early stage pitches or founding teams, give them a small amount of seed money. When you do that, you get very good at networking. Basically you get all the business because there's a lot of outflow. Everyone who's a young investor who may not be as established, we want to go to this firm. And therefore he makes great connections, develops a good eye for talent, and his skill set is really knowing a little bit about a lot and being a good networker. He is not, I don't think, a coding genius.

[Dax Shepard]

It's funny because I guess I put him in that category.

[Nate Silver]

No, he has a good eye for sniffing out what the next big thing is going to be. All the guys, including the bad and evil people are impressive, but Sam Altman, because it's kind of this crazy idea, I'm obviously supplying this a lot, but just leave this computer on for a really long time. It's not clear what the commercial applications are. And it's expensive to buy. Compute is expensive. Right. It's not like a Silicon Valley garage somewhere where you're just hacking together a project. No clear financial upside, which is why it started out as a nonprofit. That's obviously de facto already over. I'm not going to get in their legal structure. Exactly. But like wrestling together. Elon Musk and Microsoft and Peter Thiel was an early investor. All these people, he was kind of playing the captain of that fantasy baseball team. Sam is an effective politician. He understands different constituencies in Silicon Valley. Kind of reflects their ideology and is very risk on. So Sam Bankman fried again. Sbf, not Sam Altman literally said repeatedly, like, if I could flip a coin and the coin comes up heads and the world is twice as good plus 1%, and if it's tails, we wipe out all life in the known universe. I would flip that coin from utilitarian standpoint. Right.

[Dax Shepard]

That's a worldview, isn't it?

[Nate Silver]

Sam Altman wouldn't do that at 50 50. He might do it at 9010 though.

[Monica Padman]

It's so out of touch. You can be very smart until you hit a certain level of ego and power and then you become dumb again.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh yeah. Your intelligence is compartmentalized. Elon in so many ways is the greatest engine engineer for centuries. And then he has kind of the emotional capacity of a 12 year old.

[Nate Silver]

SpaceX actually was in very hairy situation for a long time.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, they crashed three if the fourth didn't succeed, he's done and he knows it.

[Nate Silver]

And so he's been written off a few times. But once you have the chip on your shoulder and with Sam Altman AI taking a long time to let it train on basically reading the entire text of the Internet and thinking scare quotes about it for a really long time. And then all of a sudden with GPT 2 and then certainly 3 and beyond that, it's like, this is kind of miraculous.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, I just started and I'm like, I really can hardly believe this can do this. You feel like you're interacting with magic.

[Nate Silver]

In Some way, yeah. So you have faith in it. And most of these guys, not that I have the whole faith thing worked out, but I think you start to get into some weird existential and spiritual questions for various reasons. When you're talking about smarter than human intelligence, when you're talking about life extension, these guys get into weird simulation hypothesis and things like that. And most of them are secular. I kind of halfway predict there might be a little bit of a religious boom in Silicon Valley sometime soon as they try to wrestle with it. But Sam feels like he's seen this miracle happen and then he gets written off. At different times, the board tried to clumsily oust him from his own company. And then once you survive that, then you're emboldened. I think he's the most rational of all the people I met. I think he understands his incentives. So I talked to him in summer 2022. The book took four years to write at first. I tried to get another interview later on, once GPT 3.5 had come out. They're like, friendly, but like, Sam was traveling the world for the next six months and you first do interviews in person, so it might be difficult. You come to Cambodia at first. This interview's like a year and a half. But it was actually better because he was less guarded back then. He's like, yeah, it could go really badly, but we're going to solve global poverty and wouldn't that be really good? We'll solve all technological and scientific problems and that's worth the tangible risk that things go really wrong and we destroy civilization. That's, I think, a relatively honest comment. It may be deranged, but an honest expression of what he thinks. And people are like, oh, this might be a marketing strategy. It's like, no, Tylenol wasn't like, we might poison the water stream if people have more Tylenol. But let's keep. This is like not a typical strategy. And it's because they come from this mindset where, number one, they are targeting taught to quantify everything in probabilistic terms, which again, I think is more good than bad, but is not the way most people, apart from me and other people in the river, think about these things. And to think in terms of cost benefit analysis, you layer on top of that typical startup founder ego feeling like you're oppressed when you're actually very powerful. Right. Having this run of success, having lots of money and people who are sycophantic in your general orbit. Pat, we've not talked quite enough about Just a lot of plain old compatible, this wanting to compete and win. Capitalism will triumph for better and worse because the people who want to compete are going to out compete the people who don't want to compete. Unless you entirely suppress competition, then competition is going to win. It's a very hard problem to balance out.

[Dax Shepard]

Nate, this has been awesome. I love your book. One of the things I love that you point out in the book is like if you take right now the top 10 richest people in America, they're all self made. Wow. If you go back a century, that list is mostly inherited wealth. That's a good thing.

[Monica Padman]

That's great.

[Nate Silver]

It's only in the top 0.0001%. It's because if you're born on third base, just put your money in a trust fund, go do too much coke, you don't really have much of an incentive because like what some of these people are doing is they keep bludging the horse when it's already dead. I'm mixing my metaphors here, right, but in some rational sense, when you sell your first startup for $50 million, just go buy a villa in Tuscany or something and have a great party with all your friends, be an angel investor, invest in a basketball team, but instead they kind of keep competing over and over and over again and doubling down over and over again. And so by definition it's like a poker tournament where the person who goes all in 10 times in a row and by luck or skill, the combination really win these bets 10 times in a row, all of a sudden wealth multiplies exponentially and you're worth more money than half the countries on Earth. I mean, what is Elon's net worth compared to the GDP of most countries on earth? A lot of power accumulating in a very small number of people's hands.

[Dax Shepard]

It self accelerates. It's flubber.

[Nate Silver]

Before the book, the print edition, you can kind of bounce your way through. I am partially audiobook.

[Dax Shepard]

That's what I did. I listened to it.

[Nate Silver]

We cut out some of the things that are a little bit more detours. I'm actually partial to the audiobook version.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, yeah, that's Malcolm too. Malcolm Gladwell says you should listen to his books.

[Nate Silver]

Constraints are good. I want to kind of force you to like in the order of the author.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, yeah, Right, right, right, right. Well Nate, it's been a pleasure meeting.

[Monica Padman]

You and happy birthday.

[Dax Shepard]

Happy birthday.

[Monica Padman]

Thanks for joining us for your birthday.

[Nate Silver]

It was really fun. I think you guys will.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, I look forward to your next Book and happy birthday. Stay tuned for more Armchair Expert if you dare. We are supported by Quince. You know, Kristen's been ordering a ton from Quince.

[Monica Padman]

Quince is amazing.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. And I told her, I go, you know, they're a sponsor. And she, she couldn't believe it. Being stylish and comfortable allows you to feel your best, making you ready to tackle anything that comes your way. That's where Quince comes in.

[Monica Padman]

I was just in the house and our friend Anna, she had borrowed a sweater from me. It's blue and it's from Quince. It's gorge and it fits so well. And when she was wearing it, I was like, I want it back.

[Dax Shepard]

Of course, that's a sign of a great item when you regret loaning it out. There's no better workout motivation than some new activewear. Quince's performance tees and tech shorts are perfect for any movement. And if your work wardrobe needs a revamp, you can't go wrong. With their Mongolian cashmere sweaters, which start at just $60. They're able to offer such affordable prices by partnering directly with top factories, cutting out the cost of the middleman. Then they pass those, those savings onto us. Indulge in affordable luxury. Go to quint.comdax for 365 day returns plus free shipping on your order. That's Q-U-I-N-C-E.comdax to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.comdax we are supported by Drunk Elephant. Looking for a holy grail moisturizer that actually delivers. Let me introduce you to Proteini Polypeptide cream by Drunk Elephant, the protein powerhouse your skin's been craving. You know how your body needs protein to stay strong, right? I'm addicted to protein. It's my religion. Your skin does too. That's where proteini comes in. Packed with nine signal peptides and growth factors, this cream makes your skin visibly firmer. Think of protein in your Drunk Elephant routine. Like adding a shot of protein to your smoothie. And unlike those heavy moisturizers that just sit on top of your skin, this lightweight gel cream sinks right in, delivering your daily dose of moisture without any greasy residue. That's my big pet peeve with moisturizers. I don't want to be greasy.

[Monica Padman]

You don't want it to be greasy? Yeah, I mean, I'm, I have loved Drunk Elephant for years and years and years, and I'm, I'm happy that you've gotten into it.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, it's great. It goes on so light and sinks right in. Try Drunk Elephant's breakthrough Moisturizer. Today. Discover proteiny polypeptide cream at Ulta Beauty Stores and also@ Ulta.com we are supported by Better Help. We often hear about the red flags we should avoid. But what if we focus more on looking for green flags in friends and partners? What I've said in the past where it's like, it's better to bond over the love of a band with somebody than the hatred of something.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Look for the positive positivity.

[Dax Shepard]

Whether you're dating, married, building a friendship, or just working on yourself, it's time to form relationships that love you back. And if you're not sure what green flags you should look for, therapy can help you identify them, actively practice finding them, and even help you bring that green flag energy into your relationship with yourself. BetterHelp is fully online, which helps make therapy affordable and convenient. Serving over 5 million people worldwide. Access a diverse network of more than 30,000 credentialed therapists with a wide range of specialties. Discover your relationship green flags with better help. Visit betterhelp.comdax today to get 10% off your first month. That's BetterHelp. H-E-L-P.comdax.

[Monica Padman]

Stay tuned for the fact check. It's where the party's at.

[Dax Shepard]

I'm trying to taunt you. Have you noticed that my diet cook says happy birthday? Dax.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, I didn't know. My glass bottle of DC Is it from Bill?

[Dax Shepard]

It's from my birthday, but they didn't come in time for my birthday.

[Monica Padman]

But was it from Bill Gates?

[Dax Shepard]

No. Oh, I think Kristen ordered them. Oh, yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, cute.

[Dax Shepard]

You're right. He has sent us Diet Cokes. It's a natural thought.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah. Is that diet or regs? Diet. This is an amazing Ding, ding, ding. Oh, but for a different guest. Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, okay. Year market. So how long did it take you to fall asleep?

[Monica Padman]

I don't know because I listened to a few podcasts all the way through.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, God.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah. And then I just let it turn off, and then I don't know when. How long after that.

[Dax Shepard]

What podcast did you listen to?

[Monica Padman]

Listen to? Nobody's listening. Right. Elizabeth and Andy, my favorite podcast. And then they.

[Dax Shepard]

That's your blankie.

[Monica Padman]

Uhhuh. That's my binky. My.

[Dax Shepard]

My auditory blink. Binky.

[Monica Padman]

What's lovey? That's my lovey.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay. Your stuffy. Your lovey.

[Monica Padman]

I never had one of those.

[Dax Shepard]

A stuffy.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah. And then I wonder. I mean, I had Stuffed animals.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Monica Padman]

But I never had one that was like I. You have to take it to the airport and on vacation and all these things. Things that all the kids have.

[Dax Shepard]

I had three, but they didn't travel with me. I maybe brought one or two of them to my dad's on the weekends. Yeah, I. But I had three different bears.

[Monica Padman]

Do you still have any of them?

[Dax Shepard]

I wish. My mom is ruthless. You know, I moved out and she just had like a garage sale and just dumped all my stuff.

[Monica Padman]

Yep. Yeah, I know.

[Dax Shepard]

But can you imagine buying my used teddy bear? She might have thrown those away.

[Monica Padman]

I think this is a ding ding, ding for real. It is long time coming. Oh, oh.

[Dax Shepard]

All right. We had delayed Liberti. Did you have Liberti cleaned?

[Monica Padman]

Liberti does look a little cleaner than normal. I agree.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, there's the on the ears.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, he's pretty disgusting.

[Dax Shepard]

But he does a horse's ass out our meals.

[Monica Padman]

He does look a little cleaner than usual. I'm hold for the listener. I'm holding Le bear tea. My beanie baby who's covered in poo poo.

[Dax Shepard]

He's a mess.

[Monica Padman]

He's sort of my lovey.

[Dax Shepard]

Just because he had value and he was really exclusive. That's not the reason I have a lovey.

[Monica Padman]

He's my, my, my investment lovey.

[Dax Shepard]

This is my 401k.

[Monica Padman]

I still remember what is on him.

[Dax Shepard]

Feal man.

[Monica Padman]

No, I mean is like from a rat or something.

[Dax Shepard]

No, I think he wiped with him.

[Monica Padman]

I did not.

[Dax Shepard]

It looks like someone did because the back is spotless. It looks like someone grabbed him from the back and used him. Hopefully front to back.

[Monica Padman]

So my parents aren't. Aren't I guess as ruthless as. As your mom, but they are pretty bad. Like they just put everything in some big bags.

[Dax Shepard]

Hold on. They're not even close. The you everything you had as a kid kid is still in your room.

[Monica Padman]

No, because my brother moved out. I mean moved in. So then everything got thrown into catalogs.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Monica Padman]

And then thrown in the basement. But it was literally like everything just like random. Like a sticky note. Is it. They just threw it all in a bag. So this le be teeth obviously got put thrown face down and then old.

[Dax Shepard]

Coffee spilled at the bottom of the bag.

[Monica Padman]

I don't know.

[Dax Shepard]

I think he was used to wipe.

[Monica Padman]

He's still great.

[Dax Shepard]

Take a big whiff of his face and see if there's any smell to him. Really get in there.

[Monica Padman]

I know I don't.

[Dax Shepard]

Let me be the judge of this. Toss him over.

[Monica Padman]

Okay. I Will I love.

[Dax Shepard]

He's expensive. He used to be expensive.

[Monica Padman]

He is expensive.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, that's. That's dung.

[Monica Padman]

No, it is. Stop. It is. I don't smell anything.

[Dax Shepard]

It doesn't smell, but boy, it does look like.

[Monica Padman]

Listen, I'm not. You're not going to like what I'm about to say, but it's the truth. This is on ebay right now for $700.

[Dax Shepard]

No.

[Monica Padman]

Yes.

[Dax Shepard]

With all over it.

[Monica Padman]

Well, no.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay, a clean version in a box or something.

[Monica Padman]

Those ones look clean, but that means they're not as unique as mine.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, that's for sure.

[Monica Padman]

This is the only Poopy La Bear tea.

[Dax Shepard]

That's like a. It's like a Warhol. Like you took this cute valuable thing wiped with it. Now that's a piece of art.

[Monica Padman]

Do you think I should auction this off?

[Dax Shepard]

No, cuz I would feel terrible for anyone who paid a lot of money for it.

[Monica Padman]

Maybe they want it. Why? Why do you get to make the decision for people that I don't?

[Dax Shepard]

You asked me if I thought you should and I'm giving you an honest answer.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, cuz you said you'll feel terrible, but you shouldn't feel terrible if they want it.

[Dax Shepard]

I want to protect them from themselves.

[Monica Padman]

Do you think people should smoke if they want?

[Dax Shepard]

I don't think they should smoke if they want. Yeah, if they want. Fine, great. But I don't think they should smoke if they think you'll like them more. Oh my goodness. Get that. That Duty Bear out of here.

[Monica Padman]

He's my friend.

[Dax Shepard]

As long as you label it as Duty Bear for the sale of him.

[Monica Padman]

I feel totally ethical auctioning this off as. Even though it's a bit dirty. But what I will be honest about, and this is an important piece. It is missing its tag.

[Dax Shepard]

The most valuable part. Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

It's missing the heart thing that. That has its name. But his name is still on his butt. It says it on the tag.

[Dax Shepard]

What it lacks tags it makes up for and debris all over his fur.

[Monica Padman]

Anyway, anyhow, I don't have any love. He's. And well, I.

[Dax Shepard]

Again, why was. What were you waiting to bring it out to tell me that there were $700 on eBay?

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, $700. There's a six, seven. One for 674, one for 750. 500. But this.

[Dax Shepard]

You thought at one point it was worth 20,000.

[Monica Padman]

It was. He comes up in this episode.

[Dax Shepard]

Right, right.

[Monica Padman]

Which is why that's a ding ding.

[Dax Shepard]

Ding shocker that Nate didn't offer to buy it. It's so valuable.

[Monica Padman]

Well, he was upstairs. That's why he didn't see him.

[Dax Shepard]

He couldn't see him. Do you think? So Monica's now placed l shitty on her shoulder. Do you think that's your bad shoulder or your good shoulder? Is he telling you to do bad things? Things are good things, so you're it. Or your super ego.

[Monica Padman]

He's bad. He likes he got out of the trash.

[Dax Shepard]

He's a mono animal eating up all those old caramels at the bottom of the trash can.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah. If you go to ebay, you're going to get a nice guy. You're going to get an angel Laerti. But this is the only devil lair tea in the whole world.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, Yeah. I have something I want to announce.

[Monica Padman]

Let's hear it.

[Dax Shepard]

I have a few things.

[Monica Padman]

Okay.

[Dax Shepard]

First, I don't think I've ever seen a response so consistent in the comments.

[Monica Padman]

Okay.

[Dax Shepard]

The dog world is ablaze.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, no.

[Dax Shepard]

There's a fervor of recommendations.

[Monica Padman]

I told everyone not to get too excited.

[Dax Shepard]

I opened up the comments for James Marsden.

[Monica Padman]

Little Jimmy Marsden.

[Dax Shepard]

Little Jimmy Marsden. And nearly every comment said, dax, please tell Monica she should get a miniature king salmon Burmese Yorkshire Pinscher. Like, they were so specific. The different breeds you need. And everyone has a favorite breed. If you want to hear some testimonials, there are a couple hundred waiting for you.

[Monica Padman]

Okay.

[Dax Shepard]

And then another thing I want to say is I read a great book by a friend of the pod's wife, Alison Grant Adams. Wife.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, nice.

[Dax Shepard]

She wrote a book called I Am the Cage. Ooh. And it's really, really good. It's about this young woman who's living in this, like, tiny little town in Wisconsin by the lake. And she walks to work and she doesn't want to see anyone and she doesn't want to be friends, and she.

[Monica Padman]

Is it a novel?

[Dax Shepard]

Yes, it's a novel.

[Monica Padman]

Okay.

[Dax Shepard]

And there's this huge snowstorm and she gets snowed into this house she's renting. And then just the journey she goes on in this Snowden thing. And then you're. You're getting all these flashbacks of her childhood having had this very specific surgery to lengthen a leg.

[Monica Padman]

Ding, ding, ding.

[Dax Shepard]

Tell me.

[Monica Padman]

Remember we had. We had a guest on once whose brother had that surgery and he passed away from it.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Horrible.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. In the book, the character is told by the nurse, like, you're in good hands. He's the best in the country. And then she asks how many people do this procedure. And he's the Only one, the horrificness of this procedure and how much it changed the course of her life and how it all comes into this inflection experience, being snowed in. It's really, really cute. So impressed. It's so beautifully written. And it's also, I think, for people who are like, they're not extroverts. They don't want to talk to anyone, they don't want to comfort anyone. Like, it's. I would imagine it'd be liberating to hear someone speak so honestly about how much they dislike all these interactions.

[Monica Padman]

Sure. Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

It's very brave. It's a very cool book. I am the cage. People sit in. It is.

[Monica Padman]

Is it out?

[Dax Shepard]

It's out on February 18th.

[Monica Padman]

Okay, great.

[Dax Shepard]

So pre order it. I really recommend it. It's fantastic. I'm the cage.

[Monica Padman]

I'll read it.

[Dax Shepard]

I don't read many novels. It kind of like I could feel there was enough reality in it.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, well, the best novels do that.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

You probably just haven't read any good ones.

[Dax Shepard]

I've never read a good novel.

[Monica Padman]

That's what it is.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

I really like reading novels.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

I mean, you're a fantasy girl.

[Dax Shepard]

You're a cookie boy. And a fantasy girl.

[Monica Padman]

I am both of those things. I am.

[Dax Shepard]

I'm a reality boy. Don't talk about unicorns.

[Monica Padman]

You have plenty of fantasies.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Monica Padman]

You're a fantasy girl too.

[Dax Shepard]

And a cookie boy.

[Monica Padman]

And a cookie boy. I'm a reality girl too. Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

I don't mean to put you in a box.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, don't put me in a cage.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, I am the cage. No, that's the title of the. But I am a cage. Stay tuned for more. Armchair expert if you dare. We are supported by Macy's. Planning a winter getaway before you hit the slopes or chase the sun, make Macy's your first destination. At Macy's, you'll find everything you need for your vacation at incredible prices. If you're planning a cold weather vacay, head to Macy's for great deals on coats, earmuffs, hats and gloves, boots and outdoor activewear from brands like the normal North Face, Ugg and Columbia. And if you're booking a sunny destination, Macy's is still the place to get everything you need. They've got stylish resort wear, shorts, dresses, sandals, swimwear and more from brands like Nike, Steve Madden and Levi's. I get my Levi's at Macy's. I just love Levi's. Head to Macy's to find all your travel must haves at affordable Prices and spend your next vacation in style. Shop now@macy's.com or visit your local Macy's store.

[Monica Padman]

Speaking of fantasy, we have an upcoming guest who we discuss fantasy with a bit. And I thought that was really interesting.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. And very similar to your experience.

[Monica Padman]

Uhhuh. It's a great survival mechanism.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Until you don't need it anymore to survive.

[Dax Shepard]

But you still use it every now and then. Yeah. Yeah. I took a hike this morning. It's raining.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, it is.

[Dax Shepard]

Thank God. We have to. We can only be grateful.

[Monica Padman]

I know. That's right.

[Dax Shepard]

We have no choice but to be very grateful.

[Monica Padman]

I agree.

[Dax Shepard]

Considering the fire conditions.

[Monica Padman]

I agree. I agree. I agree. I.

[Dax Shepard]

You are taking it better than normal, which to me seems like proof of that.

[Monica Padman]

Thank you. I'm trying very hard.

[Dax Shepard]

Are you? What. What does that entail? You should look out the window and go, I love you, rain. And just force yourself.

[Monica Padman]

No. To be clear, it is raining. It's been raining for the past past couple days. I have seasonal affective disorder, SAD self diagnosis. And I am about to start my period. These are. There's lots going on.

[Dax Shepard]

Double whammy.

[Monica Padman]

That. Generally speaking, I can predict what kind of mood I will be in.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

But I.

[Dax Shepard]

And is it helpful to go? Yeah, I feel like shit. But I know it's because of these things. Does that like mitigate how much suffering there is?

[Monica Padman]

There's even. Yes. There's many things at play. If I'm starting to feel like really agitated.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

It's that.

[Dax Shepard]

Right. Not the person.

[Monica Padman]

Not the thing or the. Or the person or whatever. And so that's helpful to know.

[Dax Shepard]

I do that.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Really helps. I mean, you got to do it with children.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, I bet.

[Dax Shepard]

Like if you're. If you're depressed, your children, the little things that you can overlook start becoming annoying.

[Monica Padman]

Sure.

[Dax Shepard]

And then I have to go. Has nothing to do with them. You just feel this way. It really is effective. It is a cbt.

[Monica Padman]

It's also. I feel like you've been in a low mood.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. Yeah. I had a good couple, three weeks of feeling down. Depressed.

[Monica Padman]

Depressed.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

And that is clear to me.

[Dax Shepard]

Uhhuh.

[Monica Padman]

Right. And we've talked. We have talked about it on here.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

But the thing you don't always agree with, but that I really do think is true, is that you can only have 100% of an emotion in the room.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Or between two people or whatever. Yeah. And I feel that like when you are not at your happiest.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, it's not My turn to also be in that headspace. Like, it's my turn to be the other type of person in this. In this setting or in this duo. So I don't know. I find that sort of liberating. It's. It's like, okay, I. Actually. This isn't the time for me to indulge my thing.

[Dax Shepard]

Because you learn you can control it if you're forced to.

[Monica Padman]

It's not that set in stone. There it is. I am able to overcome it.

[Dax Shepard]

Yes.

[Monica Padman]

If I need to. And the rain makes me gloomy, but I haven't really been that gloomy.

[Dax Shepard]

I'm super, super lucky because I, in the morning, open up my drapes and I go to meditate. And often I start meditating while it's still dark out. And by the time I'm done, the light has come out.

[Monica Padman]

That's nice.

[Dax Shepard]

There's just mist and there's trees.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

And it's a luxury. I'm lucky. I can, like. I can recognize how unbelievably beautiful it is. Like, an impressionist painter would be painting that. Not the normal day that I see.

[Monica Padman]

Right.

[Dax Shepard]

So that's a huge advantage.

[Monica Padman]

That's nice.

[Dax Shepard]

So I was looking at it and I was like, I don't know why Gorillas in the Mist is so seared into my mind, but I think maybe that was the first time I saw that kind of tropical, misty foliage. It really captivated my imagination when I was younger. And so anytime I see, like, Columbia, when they show the mountainside and it's, like, very damp and moist, I love it. So I was looking at it. I was like, oh, I can't wait to go hiking in there. There's going to be, like. The visibility will be low. There was virtually no one out there, which is never the case.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, the rain will do that.

[Dax Shepard]

To the point where I was like, is it shut down again? And I'm now doing it again. But no, I saw a couple other folks.

[Monica Padman]

I wonder if aversion terrain, slash, seasonal, affective disorder slash sad is. It's like misophonia. Like, it could. It's a gene, probably because you're talking about the mist. And I want. I want.

[Dax Shepard]

You can intellectually understand.

[Monica Padman]

I understand.

[Dax Shepard]

It's like atmosphere in a movie. Like, they pump scenes full of dust so that there's a texture to the air. And so it's so cinematic when it's like this. It's just very beautiful. The greens are greener. It's filtering out different kinds of light.

[Monica Padman]

I know, but I don't care. I don't like it.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. You want bright hot sun.

[Monica Padman]

I really do.

[Dax Shepard]

White light.

[Monica Padman]

But I want. Want to like it. Maybe that'll be my New Year's resolution. And this year, the new. The new year started again in February.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, I feel it.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

My mood broke almost on February 1st. Yeah. Day before or something. God. Should I tell you something embarrassing? Well, let me. First, Whiskey. Well, it's related to that. Wh. Whiskey has di cake cage four nights in a row.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, he is Noro.

[Dax Shepard]

The fact that Chris hasn't killed herself yet. She's been up every night for the last four nights dealing with his.

[Monica Padman]

Can he wear a diaper?

[Dax Shepard]

He should. Well, he went to the vet yesterday and he. By the way, you know, he's such a. He's such a bastard. Not even a rascal. He's a bastard.

[Monica Padman]

I know.

[Dax Shepard]

They put him in a cone and all. They couldn't. You can't even approach him. So they had to anesthetize him, just like take his blood and run some tests. So when he came home, he was completely up. Right? He was up all. It's. I was jealous. I'm like, what'd they give him that last 14 hours? None of the drugs I ever took lasted that long. He's very small. He's down one.

[Monica Padman]

He's almost as small as Liberty.

[Dax Shepard]

He is. So he did not have any haunts last night, which was great.

[Monica Padman]

Right.

[Dax Shepard]

So I woke up in the middle of the night to pee, as I do two or three times. And I was peeing and I farted and I was half asleep. And then I went and it was to lay back in bed, and I was like. Did I. Is there a little.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, you had.

[Dax Shepard]

Is there a little. Did something come out?

[Monica Padman]

Oh, wow.

[Dax Shepard]

And then I went and sat back. I sat on the toilet and fired up the Brondel. The butt washer.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

And I. I had had a little duty, which never has happened in the middle of the night.

[Monica Padman]

Were you wearing your underwear?

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, no. Did it get well?

[Dax Shepard]

No, I was wearing my sleep pants. No panties. Just my sleep.

[Monica Padman]

I. Okay, but you were covered.

[Dax Shepard]

I didn't get any. Anything. It was just a tiny bit of. Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Do you think.

[Dax Shepard]

But I could. I got really clo. I just. What? I guess the point of this story is I got hugely lucky cuz I didn't notice. And I was just about to lay down and then that would have probably caused an issue where I would have to change my clothes and.

[Monica Padman]

And then Chris might have had to clean up your duty too.

[Dax Shepard]

No, she was downstairs on watch for the other duty. Boy.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, wow.

[Dax Shepard]

So everyone's celebrating this morning that there was no harness. And I didn't have the heart to say there was something.

[Monica Padman]

There was just a tiny, tiny bit.

[Dax Shepard]

I think it's because. Well, my hunch is I sold myself on the notion that I might be able to eat this sourdough bread that Kristen's making. Like, I really want to be able to have no gluten.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

And the first round, which was pretty dense because she used a flour without gluten. Then she's like, let's go half and half. And then she made that and it was so good.

[Monica Padman]

Half and half with gluten.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Got it.

[Dax Shepard]

And it was much better. It cooked better. It was fluffier. It was so delicious. And I had a couple slices in the morning. Okay. And I think that's why I Whiskey. Whiskey.

[Monica Padman]

Last night you Tonka.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, no.

[Monica Padman]

Please use the correct.

[Dax Shepard]

We know what a Tonka is.

[Monica Padman]

Oh, you don't want to. This doesn't count because this is too tiny.

[Dax Shepard]

No. What happened?

[Monica Padman]

I don't to.

[Dax Shepard]

We know talk of what that means. It's not like a little oopsie, you almost miss. It's like animal. Okay.

[Monica Padman]

Okay. I'm not going to give. I'm not going to talk about it. But we had similar situations. Sort of last night. Yeah, sort of. Not really.

[Dax Shepard]

But in your new outfit.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah. But nothing. I didn't have any poop. But you talk about it.

[Dax Shepard]

Why? I just was so. I was so vulnerable. I'm so revealing.

[Monica Padman]

You always are. Women can't get away with that.

[Dax Shepard]

Yes, they can.

[Monica Padman]

Everyone can't. I didn't poop. I didn't. I'm sure. But I. I just had a situation that's a little tangential to yours with. No.

[Dax Shepard]

Just got your outfit down in time.

[Monica Padman]

No, there was no poop.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Monica Padman]

No poop.

[Dax Shepard]

Interesting.

[Monica Padman]

I. I just something interesting. Interesting and novel.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Monica Padman]

Happened.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay. We'll leave it at that.

[Monica Padman]

In that space.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay. In the bathroom.

[Monica Padman]

No.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Monica Padman]

Okay. Facts. This is for Nate Silver.

[Dax Shepard]

Will you eventually write a tell all when you're like 60 and we'll hear all these stories. I hope there's a Hollywood tell all and it's just all about your Tonka experiences.

[Monica Padman]

There's only been. I've only Tonka'd once.

[Dax Shepard]

Right. Okay.

[Monica Padman]

In my fault.

[Dax Shepard]

And then went over this other situation.

[Monica Padman]

This isn't worth. This would not even even make it like.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay, great.

[Monica Padman]

A chapter.

[Nate Silver]

Okay, great.

[Monica Padman]

It's like at best, two lines.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay. More like a quote I put in my memoir. Like just a quote.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, it's like under the title, the little like, quote. It's nothing.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Monica Padman]

Okay. Speaking of gross things.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Salmon semen, skin care.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Okay.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

This is all the rage. And it's because salmon sperm shares a lot of DNA with us.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Monica Padman]

And so we used to have vampire facials. I mean, they still do them, but that's where they would, like take your blood out and then spin it. Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Get the platelets or something.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, they spin it and judge it and then they put it back in.

[Dax Shepard]

Think it's stem celly.

[Monica Padman]

I think they're kind of trying to make it. They were. Look, allegedly I never did it and then I am not going to try it. No, I'm not. But it was a thing.

[Dax Shepard]

But you do want the salmon ejaculate?

[Monica Padman]

I'm interested in that. Yeah, yeah. Salmon ejaculate is the actual clinical term.

[Dax Shepard]

Where have you found a place in LA that does.

[Monica Padman]

It's not FDA approved.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, I'm so shocked.

[Monica Padman]

Yet. It's not FDA approved yet. But if you go to South Korea, you can get it.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, that. So if you thought about. If you fantasize about taking a trip there.

[Monica Padman]

I do want to go to South Korea.

[Dax Shepard]

Just do a week of face stuff.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Cuz they're. They're supposed to be at the very cutting edge, right?

[Monica Padman]

Yes. There's a podcast I love called Eyewitness Beauty. And Nick Axelrod, one of the hosts, he goes and he once got something called like, small face.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, what's that?

[Monica Padman]

I think it made his face small.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, wow.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Wow.

[Monica Padman]

So they do all kinds of things.

[Dax Shepard]

Wow.

[Monica Padman]

Now it's called Rejurin. Rejurin. It's a long chain polynucleotide DNA of salmon milt in micro droplets under the skin of the face and neck. One of the main ingredients is hyaluronic acid. Oh, we have a friend who's done this, by the way.

[Dax Shepard]

Well, hold on a second. So under the skin. So they're shooting it into you. It's not a topical.

[Monica Padman]

Right. Just like the vampire facial where it's like.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, they put it in.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, we have a friend who did this.

[Monica Padman]

She went in South Korea and she did this.

[Dax Shepard]

She say that the results were. She said, does she look incredible?

[Monica Padman]

I haven't seen her in a while. I might see her at the Super Bowl.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay.

[Monica Padman]

But she's said she's gotten a lot of compliments and that she looks visibly different.

[Nate Silver]

Oh wow.

[Monica Padman]

I know, wow. And it's supposed to improve elasticity, reduction of fine lines and wrinkles, increase skin hydration and improved healing capabilities of the skin from.

[Dax Shepard]

How do we know it's not just filler? Maybe it's just working the same as filler. If you're putting a needle under the skin and putting volume in there.

[Monica Padman]

No, cuz scars. It's like getting rid. It helps with like skin clarity. Okay, so once it gets FDA approved.

[Dax Shepard]

You'Re going to get it.

[Monica Padman]

I'm really. I'm not going to get it.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, you're not?

[Monica Padman]

No.

[Dax Shepard]

This is confusing. I thought for sure you were going to get it.

[Monica Padman]

I, I'm kidding. I'm not kidding that this is a thing and people do find or people like it.

[Dax Shepard]

I wonder what the price tag is on this procedure.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, that I don't know. But also I.

[Dax Shepard]

And I would want wild salmon ejaculate, not farm raised ejaculate.

[Monica Padman]

Well that's the thing. We got to get the right type wild.

[Dax Shepard]

I want it wild.

[Monica Padman]

He talked about gay men of his cohort being quite successful. And it's true. And there is a lot of current research on this group right now. Adult gay men tend to have a higher rate of educational attainment compared to straight men with a significantly larger percentage earning college degrees and advanced degrees like a PhD, MD or JD. This is often attributed to factors like a strong drive to excel academically in the face of potential societal challenge.

[Dax Shepard]

I would say good voices syndrome, which Jedediah told us about.

[Monica Padman]

Yes.

[Dax Shepard]

You gotta be perfect in all other domains.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

And then also huge incentive to leave your small town to go to a university.

[Monica Padman]

I think that's true.

[Dax Shepard]

If I was gay though, my conclusion would be see, we're smarter.

[Monica Padman]

That could be more of it.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, that would be. That would influence my ego better.

[Monica Padman]

We need to get Charles Bell Curve. Charles on. On that, on that one.

[Dax Shepard]

I'm sure he's already on it.

[Monica Padman]

Backronym. This is a huge development for us. I've now used the term like three times. Yeah, it's an acronym deliberately formed from a phrase whose initial letters spell out a. Spell out a particular word or words either to create a memorable name or as a fanciful explanation of a word, words, origin. That's very confusing.

[Dax Shepard]

I was gonna say you've explained it to me now four times and I don't know what means and I couldn't make one. I can't really comprehend what's being said.

[Monica Padman]

I don't understand that definition. But I understood his. Which Is basically like you work backwards. You have the acronym.

[Dax Shepard]

You found an acronym. You love. Swatty.

[Monica Padman]

Swatty. Then you find the letters that go into it, the words that match those letters, as opposed to you create the phrase or the tenants, and then you take.

[Dax Shepard]

Now it makes. Yeah, that makes perfect sense.

[Monica Padman]

I hope I'm right about that.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Fantasy baseball. It dates back to 1980. It was originally known as the rotisserie baseball. Magazine editor Dan Okrent and some friends created the game at a restaurant in Manhattan. Now, the price of bitcoin today.

[Dax Shepard]

Okay, here we go. The bitcoin ticker tape popping podcast with your host, Monica Padman.

[Monica Padman]

96, 428.22. It's a drop in.

[Dax Shepard]

It's dropping.

[Monica Padman]

Don't come at me.

[Dax Shepard]

It's not our fault.

[Monica Padman]

Don't come after me.

[Dax Shepard]

Although I would start to think we're jinxing it if I were heavily invested in bitcoin. I started a new book.

[Monica Padman]

You are reading so much.

[Dax Shepard]

I had no interest in. And Sam Bran Freed, but now he already was in Nate's book. And then. Who's our man?

[Nate Silver]

Who?

[Dax Shepard]

Michael. Who wrote the big short?

[Monica Padman]

Lewis.

[Dax Shepard]

Michael Lewis. I was just perusing titles and Michael Lewis came up. But then I was like, oh, well, I'll read his most recent book. I've liked the other ones, and it's about Sam Beakman Friedman.

[Monica Padman]

Bankman Fried.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah. So now I'm going to learn more about this guy. It's so weird. I have no interest in learning about him. And now I'm here I am again, and I'm enjoying it.

[Monica Padman]

You're being so prolific with your books. I'm sorry to say I still haven't even finished Intermezzo.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, and we're supposed to do a puzzle on here. You were supposed to give the example from the book Couple. Yeah, episode. Luckily, we threw them a bone with the dog. This dog thing. They're off the scent. But a couple people did bring up. Hey, are you doing that?

[Monica Padman]

Okay, well, we already went too long, so next week we'll do the riddle.

[Dax Shepard]

We'll try.

[Monica Padman]

Try.

[Dax Shepard]

Let's see. We're gonna try.

[Monica Padman]

We'll do the riddle from Intermezzo. But also, I haven't even finished it. And I was supposed to. I was supposed to read it at Christmas.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, no.

[Monica Padman]

And now it's February. But really January.

[Dax Shepard]

Right.

[Monica Padman]

So it's fine. That's it.

[Dax Shepard]

Oh, wonderful. Well, I enjoyed Nate Silver.

[Monica Padman]

Me too. What an interesting guy and an interesting life.

[Dax Shepard]

Way outside of what I can comprehend.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah, Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

I can find no purchase in this statistic statistical modeling world. I barely understand it.

[Monica Padman]

I think we have an idea that gambling is like dirty and bad.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

And then statistics is smart.

[Dax Shepard]

And yes, in the stock market also is good.

[Monica Padman]

Exactly. And it's all the same thing.

[Dax Shepard]

Yep. It's all gambling, it's all risk, it's all percentages.

[Monica Padman]

Yeah.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah.

[Monica Padman]

Cool.

[Dax Shepard]

Yeah, Very cool. All right, young lives. All right. Love you.

[Monica Padman]

I love you.

[Dax Shepard]

Follow Armchair Expert on the Wondry app, Amazon Music or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to every episode of Armchair Expert early and ad free right now by joining Wondry plus in the Wondry app or on Apple Podcasts. Before you go, tell us about yourself by completing a short survey at wondry.com/survey. What's up everybody? It's Jason Kelsey and I'm here with my slightly famous little brother Travis, AKA Big Yeti Kelsey. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, we're here to bring you a next level entertainment experience with our show New Heights.

[Nate Silver]

Where the lumbaby reigns supreme.

[Dax Shepard]

We're covering all the hardest hitting topics in order of importance. UFO sightings, the ideal PB&J combo and tram become becoming a big time acting star.

[Nate Silver]

Big time is a big stretch.

[Dax Shepard]

We've got can't miss a list interviews though. That's right. And of course next level access to life inside the NFL and in the booth. Just because I retired doesn't mean I'm out of the game.

[Nate Silver]

Yeah, I mean the the old dad.

[Dax Shepard]

Shoes suggest otherwise, but those are the.

[Nate Silver]

I'm out the game shoes right there.

[Dax Shepard]

Listen to watch New Heights wherever you get your podcasts. And if you want to listen to to us first without any interruptions and get Bonus content, join 13 + in the Wondry app, Apple Podcasts or spot.