Iran: Hanging on for Dear Life. Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

Summary

Podcast Summary: Armstrong & Getty On Demand

Episode Title: Iran: Hanging on for Dear Life. Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

Release Date: July 17, 2026

Host: Armstrong & Getty | Guest: Military Analyst Mike Lyons

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Armstrong & Getty speak with military analyst Mike Lyons about the ongoing military conflict involving Iran, particularly focusing on the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz. The conversation explores the feasibility and cost of keeping the strait open, the current state of Iran’s military, the potential for long-term conflict, and the internal dynamics within Iran’s government. The episode closes with a brief, but pointed, detour into domestic politics and a humorous discussion about fast food and lifestyle choices.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

• General Jack Keane’s view (referenced): Iran values control of the Strait above all, lacking nuclear power and seeing the Strait as their "number one strategic asset." ([01:05])
• Armstrong & Getty: The Pentagon warns opening the strait would require overwhelming military force, raising questions about the U.S. willingness and capability. ([01:40])

2. Mike Lyons on U.S. Military Operations

• Feasibility of Keeping the Strait Open

  • Lyons suggests the military can continue airstrikes along Iran’s 600-mile coastline for a long time, gradually degrading Iran’s capability. ([02:32]–[03:31])
  • Not an invasion: "We’re not invading Iran, we’re not taking it over, we’re not doing that." ([02:58])
  • Attrition Strategy: The current strategy is to systematically destroy Iran’s coastal capabilities, infrastructure, and missile sites, with the goal of making any attempt to close the strait nearly impossible. ([03:49])

• Asymmetric Threats

  • Even with massive degradation, Iran retains limited missile and drone capability: "Everything is asymmetric... the most challenging to defend against. Consider it to be terrorism on the sea." ([06:14])
  • The U.S. can continue "100 or so strikes a day" with minimal risk—"as long as we’re not bringing body bags home here, this is fine." ([06:11])

3. The Internal and External Political Calculus

• Iran’s Internal Divisions

  • "You could see already between the Ministry of Foreign Policy and the IRGC"—one wants diplomacy, the other refuses to give up. ([03:49])
  • The only way to remove the will to keep fighting is to create enough internal pressure for regime change: "Something’s going to have to crumble inside Iran. I think this is starting to be the beginning of the end." ([06:55])

• Gulf States

  • Gulf countries are creating alternate pipelines and seeking ways to permanently reduce Iran's leverage, aiming to prevent Iran from ever regaining control over the Strait. ([04:28])

4. Realities and Messaging in Military Planning

• Wall Street Journal Story
  • Despite U.S. announcements that the Strait is open, shipping remains hesitant, with no meaningful traffic—"the only response was somebody on another ship saying 'f off' that we're not going through there." ([05:00])
  • Lyons explains military leaders tend to dramatically overstate their needs to secure resources—"the military is going to overestimate…I think that's where the Wall Street Journal is getting those sources from." ([05:11])

5. Long-Term Strategy and Optimism

• Forever War?

  • Lyons rejects the idea that this is a "forever war," comparing it to the successful campaign against ISIS. As long as sustained strikes don’t yield significant U.S. casualties, the campaign can be maintained. ([06:14])

• Potential Outcomes

  • If strikes continue and Iran loses revenue, internal fractures may lead to regime instability or change. Gulf states are responding accordingly. ([07:14])
  • "This problem needs to be solved right now, and I think the president is gonna make sure it gets solved before we move on to the next thing." ([07:32])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mike Lyons on Iran’s Military Capability:
  “Hanging on for dear life. I mean, again, with 90% degraded, they still have a few hundred missiles left. And nothing comes at scale. Everything is asymmetric.” ([06:14])

• On Long-Term Bombardment:
  "We can do this all day. We can continue to strike for the military, you know, 100 or so, 100 strikes a day. It’s not the level of epic Fury. It’s not 1100, but it’s also not 6 or 7, which is all the Iranians are doing.” ([06:24])

• On U.S. Military Requests:
  "The military is going to overestimate, I think, what its capability, its needs in order to get the job done and then try to come in under that." ([05:11])

• On the Broader Threat:
  “This is a good example of other countries should recognize this is the number one threat in the world right now. This is… it.” ([07:32])

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Additional Topics

Brief Segment: U.S. Domestic Politics ([08:05])

• Lyons discusses the surge of Democratic Socialists of America candidates, expressing skepticism about their constitutional knowledge and warning such radical changes would risk "Civil War level stuff."
  Quote: “If they think they're going to defund the military and get rid of the Senate…they're just delusional. And so, oh yeah, that's Civil War level stuff.” ([08:30])

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:05 – Discussion of Iran’s strategic reliance on the Strait of Hormuz
• 02:32 – Mike Lyons’ assessment of military feasibility and tactics
• 03:49 – Lyons on the separation within Iran’s power structure and long-term military pressure
• 05:00 – Skepticism about shipping traffic and the “open” Strait
• 06:14 – Iran’s military capacity “hanging on for dear life”
• 07:32 – Lyons’ view on the urgency and likely trajectory
• 08:05 – Short dive into U.S. party politics and radical proposals

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Tone & Style

The episode features the direct, skeptical, and occasionally humorous dialogue typical of Armstrong & Getty. Mike Lyons offers grounded, military-centric analysis. Banter lightens the mood post-interview as the hosts riff on fast food and calories—humorous interludes contrasting with the gravity of the main topic.

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Summary

This episode provides a nuanced, on-the-ground perspective on the precarious situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader military confrontation with Iran. Military analyst Mike Lyons delivers an optimistic but not naive assessment of U.S. capabilities, emphasizing a sustained pressure campaign rather than large-scale ground invasion. The biggest threat remains Iran’s asymmetric tactics and its ability to instill fear and uncertainty without commanding large-scale military strength. The episode concludes with reflections on the nature of military strategy, the influence of resource requests on government narratives, and a nod to domestic political turbulence—notably, with Lyons warning that overreaches in policy could have civil-conflict level ramifications. The hosts then segue into lighter fare, closing the episode with their characteristic blend of news, humor, and pop culture.

Transcript

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[Armstrong]

For Iran, the Straits Hormuz is a strategic asset. No matter what happens here, they will continue to want to take it back from us because it's number one. They don't have a nuclear power capability. They don't. They're not even close to developing a weapon. Now. This is their number one strategic asset. It gives them leverage over the Gulf states in a region and they truly want to have an element of control here and they are willing to fight us for it and we have got to take it away from them and prevent them from ever getting it back under their control again.

[Getty]

General Jack Keane on Fox yesterday, and that seems to be the case. And we started talking about this two days ago. Wall Street Journal had that piece where they were supposedly talking to people in the White House, in the Pentagon who are saying the Pentagon has been telling the President, look, we can open the strait, but it'll be incredibly difficult and it will take a lot of troops and I mean, it will be an amazing commitment of military power to do this. Do we really want to do this? You're going to need more people. You're going to need more everything.

[Host]

Let's talk about the situation in general and that question more specifically with military analyst Mike Lyons, who joins us now. Mike, always great to talk. How are you?

[Mike Lyons]

Hey, guys, great to be back.

[Getty]

So how accurate is that? That to open the strait would be somewhere between impossible and very, very, very difficult?

[Mike Lyons]

I'm not sure. I think General Keane's got it right. I think we're going to continue to attack along this Very long coastline. Right. 600 miles of coastline that exists here. I look at the targets specifically.

[Armstrong]

Right.

[Mike Lyons]

We're on the six day now of striking here and we're going after the most, the largest threat and out of these coastal batteries and drones and, you know, anybody who picks his head up and decides to fire, still not at scale, some of their missiles and drones are still getting through. We could still pound away here for a very long time from the air and continue to degrade their capability. We saw, we took out a bridge last night that's a little unusual. And it's all about the infrastructure now because if you take away the initial capability that they have along the coastline now, we've got to get another layer behind it. So I think that's what the military strikes are going to do. I'm not sure where the people are coming in. I mean, we're not invading Iran, we're not taking it over, we're not doing that. So I'm not quite sure what that is. I mean, we could do this for a long time and get the results we're looking for.

[Tony Ayo]

So.

[Host]

But given the fact that all you need are a couple of shots across a couple of boughs to effectively close the straight, eliminating their capabilities to that extent seems like a near impossibility to me. Don't you need to remove their will to do that?

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, that's two separate kind of lanes there for sure. The question is we can again attrit it down to the point where that probability becomes just so low. And I think that's what we're doing. That's what we're trying to do. The will question comes down to the separation that you could see already between the Ministry of Foreign Policy and the Ministry and the irgc. I mean, one side of the coin, they're trying to make a deal. Trump says they're calling them all the time to make a deal. But the IRGC obviously is in control of everything here. So, you know, and I think that they've been very decentralized. Obviously the intent is very clear. Just don't give up. And so the United States is going to have to continue to pound away while other countries too, the Gulf countries are looking for alternate means, which is really the issue here. Create pipelines, don't give the leverage back to the Iranians once this is over. They can't ever control this in the future. And these Gulf states are trying to recognize that as well.

[Getty]

So the Wall Street Journal's story was we the. And you know, if you have information that's different than this. Feel free to tell us. But the reporting has been that the part of the strait that we're saying is open, no ships have gone through. And we made a big on the radio announcement. The United States says it's open, go ahead, come on through. And the only response was somebody on another ship saying f off that we're not going through there.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, well, there's, there's a couple of pathways. There's one close to Oman, which is what we believe is what's open. It's what's getting through. It's not the hundred ships a day necessarily. It's not open passage. But, you know, you know, again, the military is going to overestimate, I think, what its capability, its needs in order to get the job done and then try to come in under that. Obviously, I think that's where the Wall Street Journal is getting those sources from. Because, sure, if you're a commander on the ground, if you have unlimited resources, you're going to say, this is what we need in order to make it, you know, completely, completely open. We've always heard the chairman say degraded. They're not completely destroyed. I know the President says destroyed, but that's, that's a little bit different.

[Host]

Military analyst Mike Lyons is on the line. So what, in what would you say overall is the capability of the Iranian military at this point? Are they, I mean, are they just. The only thing they can accomplish is frightening ships in the Gulf, essentially, at this point.

[Mike Lyons]

Exactly.

[Host]

Maybe in the neighborhood.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, exactly. Hanging on for dear life. I mean, again, with 90% degraded, they still have a few hundred missiles left. And nothing comes at scale. Everything is ace asymmetric. What that means. It's the, it's the one off when you don't know. It's the most challenging to defend against. It's. Consider it to be terrorism on the sea. That's what they can do, but that's all they have. And like anything else, like we defeated isis, we just have to keep going at it and keep trading at it. And frankly, as long as we're not bringing body bags home here, this is fine. I know I saw some smart person say, oh, this is now going to turn into forever war. No, it's not. Because we can do this all day. We can continue to strike for the military, you know, 100 or so, 100 strikes a day. It's not the level of epic Fury. It's not 1100, but it's also not 6 or 7, which is all the Iranians are doing. Continue to leverage on the economic side and the blockade as well. Something's going to have to crumble inside Iran. I think this is starting to be the beginning of the end. And I think this is the strategy most of the military wanted to see us do a couple months ago.

[Getty]

Well, I sure hope you're right. I mean, that'd be fantastic. If we hit them a couple hundred times a day, day after day, eventually they fall, they're not getting the revenue they need. You know, there's enough internal conflict where people are saying to each other, hey, this ain't gonna work. What's our long plan here? And the regime crumbles.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, it works for now. I mean, again, what we kind of. I'm not saying don't care. We obviously, you know, this is, again, a good example of other countries should recognize this is the number one threat in the world right now. This is. This is it. And if we don't get it, that the Iranians think they're gonna control this, then again, the Trump derangement Syndrome, you know, obviously exists inside of NATO and exists in some of these leaders here, but the Gulf states are getting it because they're also been part of the receiving end, and one or two attacks still come their way. This problem needs to be solved right now, and I think the president is gonna make sure it gets solved before we move on to the next thing.

[Host]

Mike, I wanna change topics just briefly, because we've been talking about this a lot today and are gonna be talking about it more, including Marco Rubio's fantastic speech of. Was it yesterday or.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, yesterday. It's tremendous.

[Host]

And we've been talking about the success so far of the Democratic Socialists of America's candidates in various elections, and they're trying to take over the Democratic Party. I'm sure you've been watching this, too. Any thoughts?

[Armstrong]

Yeah.

[Mike Lyons]

I'm not sure that anyone in that party's ever got a civics lesson. We have a constitutional republic that's going nowhere. And if they try to change that, then you're talking. We're back to the 1860s again. And you want to go there. We'll see how that works out. So, again, I don't think it's unfortunate. Gets a lot of press, and I feel terrible. I'm not the political guy here, obviously, but, you know, the Democrats have got a problem I have to solve here. But if they think they're going to defund the military and get rid of the Senate and overturn this, whatever they think they're just delusional. And so, oh yeah, that's Civil War level stuff. So again, you want to play hardball, we'll play hardball and we'll see how that goes.

[Host]

Military analyst Mike Lyons. Mike, it's always great to talk. As I said before, we'll stay in touch as the, as the situation evolves. Thanks.

[Mike Lyons]

Great guys. Thanks for having me.

[Host]

Yep.

[Getty]

Well, he's pretty optimistic about the road. We're going down with the couple hundred strikes per day.

[Host]

The old wack and squeeze.

[Getty]

Yep, we'll see. I don't, I suppose at the end of the day might be. What's the other option? I'm not sure there is one.

[Host]

So you take the best of your bad options.

[Getty]

Now that's interesting. His angle. He, this is something he thinks about because he is in the military and talks to people at a high level that I don't always think about. The people that leaked that stuff to the Wall Street Journal want a lot more stuff. They want people, planes, bullets, bombs, all this stuff. And that's how you get it, by saying, well, we could do it, but it's gonna be really, really, really hard. We're gonna need a lot of stuff.

[Host]

Well, you do that for reasons that are both perfectly noble and maybe a little self serving. But yeah, yeah, if I'm a Marine, I want to go in with overwhelming force.

[Getty]

The Powell doctrine.

[Host]

Indeed, indeed.

[Getty]

Want me to hit you with something really, really stupid? Or we take a break if you'd like. You're going to complain about this. Oh, you're going to yell. We usually make people buy advertising. That's what you're going to yell.

[Host]

Well, if you know everything I'm going to say, I'm going to go play golf and you can just do me.

[Getty]

McDonald's has two brand new sandwich creations. Normally we make people buy it immediately.

[Host]

Hostful. That is true.

[Getty]

The honey brown butter, bacon, egg and cheese biscuit. What is, what is honey brown? What is honey brown?

[Host]

But

[Getty]

which one is brown?

[Host]

The honey or the butter? In the English language, it's probably the butter.

[Getty]

At Taco Bell. It's the lettuce.

[Armstrong]

Nailed him.

[Getty]

Oh, my God. He made a joke about you.

[Host]

To give people the poops.

[Getty]

He tied it into the news of the day. Did you hear that?

[Mike Lyons]

Fantastic.

[Getty]

All right, so you got the honey brown butter, bacon, egg and cheese biscuit. You're right. I don't know the descriptor. Brown what that is bacon and cheese biscuit.

[Host]

That's eight words.

[Getty]

And the honey brown butter chicken biscuit, which is different than the bacon egg

[Host]

biscuit or McHoney or something.

[Getty]

Well, they want you to know about the honey brown butter, whatever the hell that is. And fans are loving them, apparently.

[Host]

Excellent.

[Getty]

They have one at my local McDonald's. I'll try one today. Why are the calories so high on this stuff, though? I generally kind of like put my hand up to the menu in front of my eye so I can't read the calorie part if I'm at McDonald's. But like one of my go tos is a couple of cheeseburgers. Couple cheeseburgers, no onions. That's all I get. Two cheeseburgers, no onions, no fries, no drink. Just said. But it's like 800 calories for two tiny cheeseburgers.

[Mike Lyons]

Why?

[Getty]

Why are there. So how do they pack so many calories in there?

[Host]

I don't know. The fat? I really don't know. That was the great thing about being on that cruise Judy and I were on. No calories anywhere. It was the international waters, friends. The lawless rum sodomy in the lash piracy, and no calories on the menu. It was fantastic.

[Getty]

Make me walk the plank. You're gonna need a thicker plank.

[Host]

Yeah, you better reinforce that plank.

[Getty]

You don't know how they pack all those extra calories into fast food. It seems like a lot for tiny. For two tiny little burgers. Look up my making cheeseburgers or something at home. It ain't like that. Yeah, I don't know what that deal is. Yeah, deliciousness, I guess, has a lot of calories in it.

[Host]

I will not eat at McDonald's. Coming up. You should inconvenience yourself more often. I will explain. I have made our lot, all of us, okay. You, the general you, the great you. We've made our lives too frictionless.

[Getty]

Ah, okay.

[Host]

Great essay from one of my favorite young thinkers.

[Getty]

Cool. A lot of stuff on the way. Stay here.

[Armstrong]

Armstrong and Getty.

[Orderly Meds Announcer]

Summer is here at Orderly Meds. We know this time is a reminder that life is full of new beginnings. Whether you're celebrating the nice weather, starting a new chapter, planning a vacation, or simply looking ahead to what's next, this season can be the perfect time to invest in yourself and your health. If you've struggled with weight loss and are curious about GLP1 medications, orderly meds can help you learn about your options. Through a simple virtual process, you can connect with licensed medical professionals who can determine whether treatment may be appropriate for you. Getting started is fast, convenient, and happens online from the comfort of home. This summer, consider a new approach to feeling your best visit orderlymeds.com podcast to learn more. That's orderlymeds.com podcast orderlymeds.com podcast because every new season is an opportunity to take the next step forward, compounded medications are not FDA approved, eligibility required and determined by a licensed provider. Individual results may vary. See website for details.

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