Victory or Surrender

Summary

Armstrong & Getty On Demand – "Victory or Surrender" (July 14, 2026)

Overview

In this episode, Armstrong & Getty dive headfirst into the strange, fast-changing global landscape of 2026. The main theme centers on the idea that, on certain issues—from geopolitics to conspiracy theories—there's no middle ground: it's "Victory or Surrender." The conversation sweeps through the Iran conflict, media coverage (or lack thereof), the rise of conspiracy thinking, technological anxieties, and rapidly evolving war technology.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Iran Conflict & Media Apathy

• Main Theme: The hosts are struck by how little attention the ongoing US-Iran war receives in mainstream outlets, questioning the nation's priorities and news consumption habits.
  • "The war that we're involved that nobody seems to be paying attention to." (A, 01:39)
  • Story placement on evening newscasts shows misplaced attention on viral videos over wartime developments (A & B, 01:44–02:26).
• Recent Developments: Iran resumes hostilities after a brief 18-day peace, enacting a blockade set to begin at 4 PM Eastern.
• Blockade & Economics:
  • Iran strikes shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; tolls and embargoes threaten to spike oil prices.
  • "A 20% toil on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz would be an extra $15 per barrel, which is a pretty big jump." (A, 15:15)

2. Strange Times: Technology, Politics, and World Events

• Global Instability: Joe Getty laments the lack of reliable alliances and the weird, unpredictable nature of current affairs.
  • "There are very few rocks upon which to set one's feet it would seem these days. Yeah. Except perhaps... your faith." (B, 03:30)
• AI Anxiety: Jack Armstrong discusses the existential threat posed by Artificial Intelligence and the polarized debate between its advocates and critics.
  • "Things are weird and they're getting weird fast." (B, 04:17)
  • Reference to activists and industry leaders warning about AI’s potential to “stamp out mankind.” (B, 04:03–04:17)

3. Conspiracy Theories and Public Psychology

• Charlie Kirk Case: Discussion about how conspiracy thinking has marred a straightforward criminal case, as social media and grifters fuel outlandish suspicions.
  • "The fact that so many people have made this poor guy's wife with their little kids the villain in this story is just… nuts." (A, 06:06)
  • Comparison to cult dynamics and manipulation by “grifters” like Candace Owens (B, 07:11).
• Comfort in Chaos: Quoting Alan Moore, they explore why people turn to conspiracy—the illusion of order is more comforting than facing randomness.
  • "The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth... is chaotic." (A quoting Alan Moore, 08:55)
• Proportionality Bias: Humans create outsized explanations for impactful events because the reality of randomness is too unsettling.
  • "...the randomness and stupidity of the universe that that could happen. So they've got to invent in their minds... a giant worldwide cabal..." (B, 09:13)

4. The War Economy: Oil & Inflation

Iran's Strategy:

• Iran views control of the Strait of Hormuz as its existential deterrent, likening its strategic importance to a nuclear arsenal. (B, 16:04)
  • "That is our new nuclear weapon. We will choke the world economy if anybody threatens us." (B, 16:04)
• Discussion of how various countries might respond to Iranian attacks and blockade maneuvers.
  • Notably, the hosts discuss the price impact on oil and the political irony in US policymakers’ shifting stances (A & B, 15:15–15:54).

Inflation Update:

• Reporting on June's inflation drop to 3.5% and analyzing media framing.
  • "Inflation cooled [to] the 3.5% annual rate in June because of a brief pause in the war with Iran..." (A, 18:20)
• War-induced price volatility: Fluctuations in global energy costs directly tie to conflict status.

5. War Tech and Battlefield Realities

Ukraine & Russia:

• Ukrainian forces strike deep into Russia (1500 km), hitting oil refineries—thanks to advances in drone technology.
  • "Isn't it amazing that Russia can't shoot down drones traveling across their country? Dang near a thousand miles." (A, 20:59)
• Russian military's extremely short average front-line lifespan: "Once you get to the front line, it's about 20 minutes." (A, 23:11)
• Organizational corruption in the Russian military: Profiteering, bribery, and systemic dishonesty impact both military effectiveness and reporting to leadership.
  • "Every single level [of command]... they're all getting rich... reports are utter fiction..." (B, 24:00)
  • Discussion of how this creates a self-perpetuating cycle of delusion, akin to the worst of Soviet-era practices (A & B, 26:08–27:17).

Modern Warfare:

• How drones and unmanned systems are redefining combat, often sidelining human soldiers in favor of remote or autonomous weaponry. (B, 21:52)

6. Social Trends and Pop Culture

Memes & Virality:

• Infectiousness of internet memes, exemplified by the “I go buffer fast, I go buffer slow” buffalo meme.
  • (A & B, 13:06–13:37, 18:18)

Movies & Woke Culture:

• Debating the new Odyssey film by Christopher Nolan, its alleged "wokeness," and recurring movie tropes (e.g., Matt Damon always playing a man trying to get home).
  • "In the Odyssey, Matt Damon is a man who wants to get home. Just like in The Martian and ... Saving Private Ryan. No one wants to get home more than Matt Damon." (A, 32:11)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iran’s Strategic Thinking:

  • "Iran has decided the one thing we must have is control of the Strait of Hormuz... That is the must. We control that strait." (B, 16:04)

• On Conspiracies:

  • "Some people can't accept that because it speaks to... the randomness and stupidity of the universe..." (B, 09:13)
  • "You will look back with shame and anguish at the period of your life in which various grifters got you to spout this anti-Jewish crap." (B, 10:00)

• On Modern Warfare:

  • "Our sea drones... can carry serious, serious weaponry... and go many, many, many miles. So yeah, the future of warfare is taking shape... and it's not got many human beings involved in it." (B, 22:01)

• On Russian Military Corruption:

  • "If you have any authority, you make everybody bribe you for everything in the armed forces." (B, 24:00)

• On Media Priorities:

  • "It was a good eight stories into the newscast before they got to the war with Iran…on the day that the President announced the war is back on." (A, 01:51)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Iran Conflict in the News: 01:35–02:54
• AI & Technology Anxiety: 03:47–04:17
• Media & Conspiracy Culture: 05:53–10:22
• Buffalo Meme Segment: 13:06–13:37, 18:18–14:09
• Iran Blockade & Oil Economics: 15:15–16:21
• Inflation & Oil Prices: 18:20–20:00
• Ukraine/Russia War Tech: 20:58–22:58
• Russian Army Corruption & Front-Line Casualties: 23:23–27:17
• Movie & Pop Culture: Odyssey Discussion: 28:45–32:38

Tone & Style

As always, Armstrong & Getty balance biting satire with dismay at current events, weaving humor and cultural references into even the grimmest topics. The episode tempers its seriousness about world affairs and the dark side of human psychology with pop culture asides and characteristic banter.

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Summary prepared as a listener’s guide for Armstrong & Getty’s “Victory or Surrender” (July 14, 2026).

Transcript

[A]

This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed.

[B]

Human

[A]

queen Carvania stood haloed by the morning sun. An army hung on her every word.

[B]

My champions, I have sold my chariot on Carvana. Twas a lovely suv, an inexplicably queenly offer. They're even coming to the castle to collect it. Tonight we feast.

[A]

An offer you can feast on.

[B]

Sell your car today on Carvana. Pickup fees may apply.

[A]

Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln radio studio at the George Washington Broadcast Center,

[B]

Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty. Armstrong and Getty.

[A]

And now, here's Armstrong and get ready. Live from Studio C. Seor. It is a dimly lit room deep within the bowels of the Armstrong and Yeti communications compound. And today we are toiling under the title of the show.

[B]

I'd like to apologize. First of all, the titles of the show are utterly lacking in mirth or irony. Today I tried and I tried. I came up with nothing. So here's your two sincere titles. Mamdani's Islamianist New York is hemorrhaging high earners. Or if you prefer, victory or surrender. Only two choices. Compromise is out.

[A]

On what topic is victory or surrender?

[B]

That would be your Iran situation.

[A]

Okay. The war that we're involved that nobody seems to be paying attention to.

[B]

Oh, no, they had it on right after the third consecutive day of the bison attack on the evening news.

[A]

Yeah, nobody watches evening newscast, but I use it as kind of a barometer of, I don't know, they think that's what people want to know across the country or something like that. But anyway, it was a good eight stories into the newscast before they got to the war with Iran. On the day that the President announced the war is back on, it was like after every YouTube video they could come up with, here's a cop who had to chase a guy across a golf course. Can you imagine that?

[B]

A high speed chase on a golf course. That's wild. There's two minutes on the great Sam Neill.

[A]

Oh, right.

[B]

Yeah. It ran something something.

[A]

So I don't know if they just have polling or something that shows them. So I don't know. And I don't know for you. I mean, we're always guessing. People are interested in. I can't believe that the. We're at war and nobody cares, but that's where we are. And 18 days is the total length of the great big peace signing that they did in Versailles, France, to make it a very big deal. Because lots of peace deals, world wars and stuff like that have ended there.

[B]

Imagery.

[A]

18 Days of Nothing and now the war is completely back on. The blockade starts at 4 Eastern this afternoon.

[B]

Oh man, I gotta get some stuff shipped real quick before that kicks in. Yeah. I don't know if it's occurred to you, these are really odd times. Really, really strange. I mean, I'm plowing through the news of the day in the commentary and looking at the Democratic Party and some of the Republicans, honestly, and. Oh gosh, just some of the conflicts going around the world. Going on around the world. And Britain, perhaps our oldest, closest friend after our fairly bloody disagreement in the 1700s, has just completely mind. There are very few rocks upon which to set one's feet it would seem these days. Yeah. Except perhaps the rock of your salvation, your. Your. Your faith.

[A]

I was on a big walk AI kick during my walk last night and listening to some of the big books on that and just being re reminded of. Oh yeah, there's that. That might change everything everyone's ever known about everything by next year maybe. Yeah.

[B]

Why about the hardcore anti AI activists and how they have believed some of the heavyweights of the industry that it is coming for the, the, the, the, the spine, the heart, the lungs of mankind. It will stamp out mankind.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

I'm thinking, you know, that would be really, really bad if that happened. And nobody's really sure. Strange times. Things are weird and they're getting weird fast.

[A]

France, Spain, today. I've got no rooting interest in that. I haven't watched a second of France or Spain, whereas it's Argentina, England and I've watched lots of both of those, so I'm kind of interested in that one. But you have a France, Spain, rooting interest.

[B]

I really don't know. I suppose France has been. I talked to some hardcore Euros on our trip and they said, oh yeah, France is just in a class all by itself. So I guess I'm rooting for the underdog.

[A]

Yeah, France is supposed to be the most likely to win it all. England, England.

[B]

Argentina is being called the greatest rivalry anywhere in sports. Makes Yankees, Red Sox look like nothing.

[A]

Oh, cool. Well, I'm into that one because I'm gonna. I've been following Argentina and England. England hasn't won the World cup since 1966 and super important to them. Argentina is an is. They shouldn't have won any of the last four matches they played. So they're just on this incredible come from behind. How did you do that role? So it's, it's exciting. Feel like I have any interest in soccer, which most people don't actually.

[B]

Well, the two Countries had a war not terribly long ago in which they spilled each other's blood. So there's that. And then the. The blood of the soccer field. We'll describ, maybe give you a reason to watch and care. I don't know who I'm rooting for. I'm an Anglophile. I've always been an Anglophile. Love Great Britain and it's common law and its music and comedy. On the other hand, currently, it just sucks.

[A]

Yeah, it's lost its mind. Yeah, it really has. Here's the most interesting thing I've come across today. And I know you're going to talk some about the conspiracies around the guy who killed Charlie Kirk, that the trial didn't start, just the hearing for whether or not the guy should be charged, which is an open and shut case as far as I can tell. Poor, lost, murderous, crazy kid that killed Charlie Kirk for no good reason whatsoever. Not that there is a good reason, but anyway. And what has happened out of that is underappreciated for its nuttiness. The fact that so many people have made this poor guy's wife with their little kids. The villain in this story is just. I mean, that might be the opening salvo in what the rest of all of our lives are going to be like with the craziness of AI videos and the dispersion of media and no gatekeepers in the media whatsoever. Because, I mean, it's just nuts that she somehow emerged as the villain.

[B]

I'd like to amend my oft spoken slogan. I'll be in the woods heavily armed if you need me. Yeah, I mean, it's absolutely despicable. It reminds me in a way of the Jim Jones Jonestown cult in Guyana that was like the starkest, most horrifying example of the gul of people and how they can be lured into various situations and manipulated by charismatic leaders and these Candace Owens style grifters who are latching onto people's weakness of mind and intriguing them with their, you know, I'll give you the real secret. You're not going to be duped. You're smarter than all those people, those enticements. I mean, it's just such a stark illustration of how the human mind can be manipulated. It's. It's interesting even as it's horrifying.

[A]

Yeah, both ends are interesting. The grifter ends interesting. The grifter end of it. The ones that are, you know, the chart, the Candace Owens and whoever that's making this thing go. But the fact that there's an audience for.

[B]

It is also just.

[A]

Oh, yeah. So came across this quote from Alan Moore. He is a. He's a guy behind the Watchmen and all kinds of comic book stuff.

[B]

Oh, yeah, Love him.

[A]

I don't know anything. I didn't. I had to Google to who he was when I came across this quote. He is to, I guess that world. Comic book world. What graphic novel?

[B]

Please.

[A]

J.K. rowling is to like, you know, Harry Potter or whatever. I mean, he's a really, really big deal. Anyway, this is what he said about conspiracies. The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy. And we've said this, by the way, in recent months or whatever, so I don't want to give him like all the insight credit in the world and

[B]

I can't draw a lick. But yeah, we have said this stuff.

[A]

The main thing that I learned about conspiracy theory is that conspiracy theorists believe in a conspiracy because that is more comforting. The truth of the world is that it's actually chaotic. The truth is far more frightening. Nobody's in control. The world is rudderless. Some people can't handle the fact that the world is rudderless.

[B]

Yeah, and then you get the proportion, the proportionality imbalance where a good and important young man, for instance, or a president can be assassinated by a lonely loser. And it's so. The effect is so disproportional with the actor. Some people can't accept that because it speaks to what Mr. Moore is talking about, the. The randomness and stupidity of the universe that that could happen. So they've got to invent in their minds. And some of us obviously don't have this need in the same way. But they've got to invent in their minds something that's proportional to the effect of the act. A giant worldwide cabal which seems to usually be run by the Jews. God help you, antisemitic scum. Your idio. Stop it. Stop it. Today, I tell you what, you can be anti Semitic in a week or two if you decide you're smart, that that's what you want to be. Trust me when I tell you you will look back with shame and anguish at the period of your life in which various grifters got you to spout this anti Jewish crap.

[A]

Stop.

[B]

Today. Take a break, take a deep breath and think about it. End of screed.

[A]

But back to the just conspiracies in general and how it's comforting for people rather than the randomness of the world. Just like I can see how it'd be more comforting to think Russia killed Lindsey Graham than that my aorta could explode at any moment.

[B]

Oh, wow. Good example.

[A]

I mean, because that's pretty horrifying.

[B]

Yeah. Wait, what? Right.

[A]

Yeah. So do you think most people that are on the receiving end of conspiracies that buy into them easily are disturbed or weak, or do you want to ascribe any characteristics to them?

[B]

Oh, yeah. Well, some of them are all of those things. I was shocked I mentioned this at the time, that some very good, normal, fun to be with working guys who are part of the larger crew that was doing our remodel. I've chatted with them all the time and at one point they were just like, yeah, it can. There's no way it's that simple. That. That kid. That kid. Because I've hunted with that bullet. There's no way that bullet could kill a guy from that range. It ripped his arterial, I'm sorry, his carotid artery out or whatever it was. Of course it could. And these guys hunt and all, but they were like going. They'd been listening to Little Kansas, the Candace Owens and. Yeah, yeah, there's gotta be more to it than that. They said, no, you're being grifted. These people are. They're just trying to drag you down this road for profit. They make this crap up. Nah, it's not as simple as it seems. And I thought, okay, this is obviously an appeal to people's pride, their intellect. I'm not gonna let the powerful dupe me because they're the kind of guys who don't have a lot of affection for like your intellectual elite or your, your higher ups in the government. You know, they're kind of tough, self reliant working guys. So that has a real appeal to it. Rejecting the status quo and saying, yeah, we know better than that crap you're trying to feed us.

[A]

So we gotta start the show officially. Are you healing from your wounds after vacation and getting flipped in the air by that buffalo?

[B]

Yeah, yeah. Although the frost. Frostbite's still a little painful, man. It's unfortunate, my exploration of Alaska.

[A]

It's unfortunate for you that that guy was there with the phone and everybody had to see that video of you going through the air.

[B]

It's humbled to me, no doubt. Yeah.

[A]

A humbling situation. Let's start the show officially. I'm Jack Armstrong. He's Joe Getty on this. It is Tuesday, July 14th, the year 2026. We're Armstrong and. Get in. We approve of this program And I've

[B]

decided my long white beard isn't nearly as flattering as I thought it was. All right, here we go. Let's begin the show officially now, according to FCC rules and regs at mark.

[A]

I go buffer fast I go buffer slow in the buffer grass in the buffer snow I've got buffer bars I've got buffer flow I'm a buffer star I'm a buffer pro buffalo Buffalo.

[B]

I didn't realize that was a giant

[A]

hit meme a while back and I had missed that somehow. I go buffer fast I go buffer slow it is catchy. You start singing it and you can't stop all day long.

[B]

Oh, I had never heard that before.

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I'm a buffer pro

[B]

buffalo.

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Oh, God. Memes, my friend, memes.

[B]

The Internet.

[A]

The world is run on memes. We got some more headlines to get to and lots of stuff today. Man. I did a deep dive on stars and the origin of the universe and stuff like that. Oh, my God. Mind blowing stuff that, that, that I was into last night. Just I was laying there in bed full of wonder and awe.

[B]

So ridiculous. Buffalo songs in astrophysics.

[A]

Exactly. All on the way.

[B]

Armstrong and Gettysburg.

[A]

I go buffer fast I go buffer slow in the buffer grass in the buffer snow I've got buffer bars I've got buffer flow I'm a buffer star I'm a buffer pro buffalo that's good. That's really, really good. Some headlines that are out there, maybe the biggest news for whatever reason. And we'll discuss this later. I don't know what their motivations are. Iran has stuck. It struck at least three ships in the last 24 hours trying to go through the Strait of Hormuz. The United Kingdom announced one of their ships was struck on the starboard side. No injuries. UAE announced two of their oil flagged tankers were struck with one fatality and a couple of injuries. I don't know how long. Like I keep saying, these countries are going to put up with this crap. And that fits in with why Trump has announced the embargo or the blockade begins at 4 o' clock this afternoon. No more ships from Iran go anywhere and announce that toll. By the way, in case you haven't heard this math, a 20% toil on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz would be an extra $15 per barrel, which is a pretty big jump in the price all at once. And like your big ships, it would cost $30 million. That would put the toll would be to get your ship through.

[B]

Wow. Wow. I had no idea they're toting that much value I didn't need. Amazing. And there's a certain amount of irony here as both Trump and Marco have in the past said, no, nobody's charging any damn tolls in international, but we'll get into that.

[A]

Yeah. And then the trolling from the leader of Iran saying, yep, you're right, tolling is a good idea. We will charge a toll, but much less when we're running the straight because it's our straight.

[B]

Exactly. Yeah. The ten second analysis of all this is Iran has decided the one thing we must have is control of the Strait of Hormuz because that ensures our survival. That is our new nuclear weapon. We will choke the world economy if anybody threatens us. That is the must we control that strait. That's why they're so hardcore about it.

[A]

Now, I know you teased for today the story about Apple suing AI leader OpenAI chat GPT. It's the first time in 50 years Apple has sued a close partner. So that's a very interesting story. Elon had a whole bunch of tweets about that yesterday. Scam Altman and various various nicknames for the guy that he got involved in that. I tried to tell you who he was, Elon said all day long yesterday. So yeah, that's an interesting story. Yeah.

[B]

Handful of other stories. I mean, the shooting by ICE guys in Maine is getting a lot of attention as usual. You just kind of know what the facts are first and that seems to be kind of difficult these days. Federal judge knocked down the whole Trump lawsuit against the irs. That'll probably be appealed and bounced around the courts in a little while. Lindsey Graham's sister's gonna serve out the remainder of his term. Not clear if she'll run again. I haven't heard that of you.

[A]

There's another guy they had lined up that they thought would win the race easier. But I think she's gonna get some momentum going. And Trump came out and said some things yesterday about how she'd be a great who knows where that ends up

[B]

by the time she's a bright and reasonable human being. So who knows?

[A]

Probably. I'm not a big fan of wives, husbands, sisters, brothers taking over offices like it's a family legacy.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Ukraine struck Russia deep, one of their oil refineries again, among other stories. We can get to a lot on the way.

[B]

Please figure Armstrong and Getty, we have

[A]

brand new inflation numbers out. We do not. We're not really a breaking news show for all kinds of different reasons, different stations at different times and Then a lot of you listen through the podcast days, weeks, months and years from now, some of you might be listening to this in the year 2034 for some reason.

[B]

Wow. Amazing.

[A]

So I'm not sure how relevant this news will be that is breaking, but the new inflation numbers are out for June. I've got the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal and Financial Times headlines. Here they are. Inflation cooled the 3.5% annual rate in June because of a brief pause in the war with Iran, says the New York Times. Inflation eased in June as gas prices fell, but relief may not last. The Washington Post having to throw in a negative on a positive story for some reason. They found some economists to say, yeah, but it might not last. Okay, put that in the headline. I'm just, I'm interested in the way people couch stories.

[B]

There are couches.

[A]

Wall street journal, inflation slowed 3.5% in June as gasoline prices fell. Slowed is a good word. And Financial Times, US inflation fell more than than expected to 3.5% in June as oil prices tumbled. So they all have it around gas and oil, but it is slowing and more than expected. And it was the biggest slowing, I think, since before the pandemic, which is a pretty big deal. Although the war coming to a halt dropped energy prices a lot. Really fast.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

Yeah. And that's why month to month, it's the biggest drop since pre pandemic. I think I was struck, however, by

[B]

the fact that yesterday when it was declared that the stupid, useless peace deal was stupid and useless and dead and that it was on and the clash began in earnest once again, that oil prices skyrocketed to near $85 a barrel.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Remember when we were all. Which historically speaking is fairly cheap.

[A]

No kidding. And remember when we were all worked up about whether or not it was $100 a barrel and we were the only people pointing out that, well, if you ingest it for inflation, it's really not that much compared to like the Obama years. Sure. Well, now it's 85. So how excited can you get about the price of oil?

[B]

Yeah, yeah, I am kind of excited, he says, by way of transition. Unless you had more to say on that topic about the developments in Ukraine. You mentioned it just before the break that they are hitting the Russia deeper and deeper into Russia, and especially in their oil refinery, refining and gasoline producing industries. I guess that's the same thing, isn't it? In short, their energy infrastructure. And there's a question about how long Russia can hold out as their population gets more and more annoyed by it. Also, European leaders got together to plan a Ukraine peacekeeping force. So that useless Euros may actually be stirring themselves to action or potential action.

[A]

They certainly should.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

That Ukrainian drone attack, 1500 kilometers. So that's over 900 miles of Russian airspace that these drones travel. Isn't it amazing that Russia can't shoot down drones traveling across their country? Dang near a thousand miles. Yeah, to hit the Salivat oil refinery in Bash Kortasistan. I guarantee you you've never heard of that place. Anyway, there it is on fire out in the middle of nowhere.

[B]

How about those drones? US sea drones. The same kind roughly that rescued those fellas at sea the other day, blasting into a bunch of Iranian ports and sub facilities or something like that. But yeah, now we're using armed sea drones which strike me as just surface torpedoes. Aren't they kind of sort of?

[A]

Well, it's a boat with no pilot in it. I, I don't know what they used here, but when they rescued those guys the other day, it would look like a regular boat, just didn't have a person driving it.

[B]

Yeah, these looked very similar. They had some unclassified video that they're similar. Anyway, I was also struck by an article that was discussing Ukraine's several different sorts of long range drones and what their weapons capacity was, how heavy a payload they can carry. Because the heavier payload, the more fuel you need, the more sophisticated it needs to be. And you've got to compromise always. If you want to hit an oil refinery 1,000km away, obviously you can't have 800lbs of explosives, you'd never get it there. And I thought that was very interesting. But I was struck by the fact that our sea drones, because of the buoyancy of water, can carry serious, serious weaponry, serious explosive charges on them and go many, many, many miles. So yeah, the future of warfare is taking shape right in front of our eyes and it's not got many human beings involved in it, at least not on the shooting end.

[A]

Oh dude. So you were on vacation for this report. I don't know if you came across this. So the average recruit into the military in Russia now has about a 30 day lifespan. Once you get to the front line, that's before you get to the front line. That's in total. Once you get to the front line, it's about 20 minutes. Yeah, 20 minutes.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

How is that even possible that you can feed human beings into that? Yeah, it's just, it's mind blowing. If that can occur on Earth in the year 2026, major country. And the world doesn't have an interest in stopping it.

[B]

I've got to see if I can refine this. Let me know if you talked about this. It was just, I think just as I was going on vacation, I came across some fantastic analysis. Might have been the dispatch, might have been the free press, about how the Russian military is utterly, utterly corrupt, including at the front and every level of organization, from the smallest unit up to, say, two or three levels above that, actually doing the combat and supplying the arms and the food and everything. Not at the giant general level, but at the, you know, the American equivalent of like your colonels and captains down to your sergeants are completely corrupt and they are making money hand over fist. If you have any authority, you make everybody bribe you for everything in the armed forces. You want a bed to sleep in, you got to bribe somebody. Well, on a morning, fundamental level, do you want to be in that next squad that I send to your death? Oh, you don't. That's going to cost you. You bribe constantly. Every single level. Why does this matter? Because all of those people who are in considerably less danger, some of them practically no danger at all, than the actual infantry guys, they want this to continue because they're sending tons of money home, unthinkable amounts of money home. And then, yeah, it certainly does extend up to the generals, but they're all getting rich. And so they're sending reports on up the line. And we saw this a little bit in Afghanistan, but all of their reports are utter fiction, reporting how well it's going, how much ground they're grabbing, et cetera. And there's a belief that Vladimir Putin at least believes some of it. And Putin himself has a completely delusional view of how the war is going.

[A]

Yeah, if. If in our press and military, Barack Obama was being fed fanciful information about how things were going in Afghanistan.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Merely as like, ass protecting as opposed to you're making a profit off of it. Add in the fact that you're getting

[B]

rich off of it.

[A]

Oh, yeah. And so I know the question then, does Putin have any idea that the Average recruit lasts 20 minutes once they get to the front line?

[B]

And you know at least as much as I do about how the Soviet system. And look, there's a hell of a lot of the Soviet system that's become the current Russian system, but the one thing the Soviet system punished was truth telling. If you said, da, our Factory is

[A]

producing 500 tractors per month, even though

[B]

you're producing 11, it was fine. Cuz the guy above you could then say da, we whole region producing very good. And he would get praised from above. The one thing you could not do is say hey, we're producing 11 tractors over here. Because you'd fall out at a conveniently open window or, or, or the whole thing would go to hell and you would be the most hated loathed man among the Communist party. So there's a lot of that in the military too. You don't dare tell the truth upward. So there is a huge like multi layered, you know, each one fueling the other system of dishonesty and delusion in the entire Russian army.

[A]

Which always happens in socialism by the way. Young socialists out there all excited about the, the new ideology that you've discovered. How cynical a human being do you have to be that you can take some young guy and send him to the front to be. Shhh. Killed in 20 minutes for profit? I can't even imagine how you get there as a human being.

[B]

That's the world we live in. Human beings adopt, adapt rather.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

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[A]

as you may have thought.

[B]

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[A]

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[B]

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[A]

I keep seeing a bunch of promotional stuff for the Odyssey, the big movie. What's his name, the director?

[B]

Nolan. Sam Nolan.

[A]

Sam, that's not his name.

[B]

Jimmy Nolan, Eddie Nolan, Ed Nolan. Nolan Van Nolenstein.

[A]

Anyway, it's coming out this weekend and I can't when I'm gonna see it in the imax. Will you look it up for Michael? What's the guy's name, for crying out loud? Nolan.

[B]

Yeah, it is. It is Woke, by the way. I know you always try to keep an open mind. Forget it, forget it. I'm on the woke. I'm on the anti side.

[A]

Christopher Dolan. Christopher.

[B]

Christopher Nolan. Everybody knows that.

[A]

When what, when what way do they claim it's woke? Because sometimes it isn't. I've seen a bunch of these movies where it turned out to be.

[B]

I watched. He asks me a question that he makes the opposite. You go ahead, sir. You make that little Casey yours and wait. Oh, I'm gonna give it such a kicking, folks.

[A]

I watched, I watched Don't Look Up Again the other day. I've seen it three times.

[B]

The fact I love that movie was

[A]

described as woke is nuts.

[B]

Yeah, it was just a good movie that attacked everybody. Equal Opportunity Markets attacked everyone. Yeah, it's hilarious. I want to watch that movie again as soon as I can. So there is.

[A]

I'm interested just because this story is, you know, whatever it is, 8,000 years old. So what did they do to walk offy it?

[B]

Yeah, well, Walt Nolan is a terrific director. I mean, and well respected. But do you know the, the, the film critic, the critical drinker on yout.

[A]

I do not actually.

[B]

Acerbic Scotsman, hilariously funny, super insightful, fair minded. He reviewed it and he said, look, first of all, it's based on this infamous 1970s feminist translation of the Odyssey that's just, I don't know, anything scholarly, very, very weak. Secondly, it engages in the obligatory race switching of Helen of Troy and her sister. And they've gotta be African women, black women, and it's fine.

[A]

I can overlook that easily.

[B]

Yeah. Oh, yeah. It just, it's. It's.

[A]

I just want to see the cumulative effect.

[B]

And there's more and there's more. And that casts prominently transsexual Elliot Page from the former girl turned boy as a brave, powerful warrior, stands like 5 foot 2, 111 pounds, and is just obviously a former girl and just annoying in that level. Others have said, though, and Nolan is a terrific.

[A]

And I saw an interview.

[B]

It's a great action movie.

[A]

I saw an interview with him where he said, why would I want to when I get the opportunity with all this money to make a movie about a story? I've wanted to do my entire film career, care about politics. That's what he said in an interview. I haven't seen the movie yet, so.

[B]

That's because I say with confidence, having not seen a single frame of it. A guy like him, in his world, doesn't see a radical feminist translation of the Odyssey. Odyssey is political. He sees that as the right one. It's a good theory. I have no idea if it's true.

[A]

I'm going to see it in the imax, I hope, with my son. Oh, and so I got this text yesterday from a friend before we take a break. Isn't it weird that in the Odyssey, Matt Damon is a man who wants to get home? Just like in the Martian and he did an interstellar and saving Private Ryan. No one wants to get home more than Matt Damon.

[B]

That's good analysis right there.

[A]

Is that the only role he as someone who needs to get home?

[B]

Well, there are only. I think it's 23 recognized stories. I've got a book about it. There are only a few stories and that's one of them. You know, person overcomes difficulty and finds themselves boy meets girl, they fall in love, etc. There are very few stories and just variations on them, which is fine. We're human beings. That's what we do.

[A]

Now, if Matt Damon ends up in a sword fight with someone in a MAGA hat, I will admit, admit that there's something going on there. But I watch the movie and report back. We got Mailbag on the way. Stay here.

[B]

Armstrong and Getty.

[A]

They're calling them death pants. Made by a company called Zara. So wide women are tripping and falling to their deaths, are getting horribly injured. We'll have an update on death pants an hour too.

[B]

I will not be donning the death pants. Sounds like a terrible idea.

[A]

I'm sure it'd be a good look for you. Anyway.

[B]

There are a few looks that are good looks for me. Here's your freedom day. I've decided on a series of quotes about Iran. This one from Mohammed bin Salman, which is so important to remember. Damn it. MBS said the leader of Saudi Arabia, Iran believes that before Imam Mahdi reappears, it must prepare a fertile ground for him and that it must control the Muslim world. They are actual religious fanatics who believe they must control the world for heaven to be manifest on earth.

[A]

The Sunnis and the Shias believe that.

[B]

No, the Shias. The 12th Mahdi thingy. That's a Shia thing.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So MBS is pointing out, these people are freaking crazy. The best you can do is manage them, right? And Americans, especially progressive Americans, have this tendency to think everybody thinks like us and just wants to be friends.

[A]

That's why I kept saying last week, well, while you were being flipped upside down by Buffalo, Trump had it right when he called him Crazy Effers.

[B]

Yeah, absolutely true. Yeah. It's not racism. That's not bigotry. That's not ugly Americanism. That's realism. Mailbag Drop us a Note [e-mail] Speaking of the Islamic Republic, it's not even a republic, Paolo writes. You've been wondering why Iran is doing what it's been doing. Maybe it's just that they want to influence politics here to their benefit. The war is politically very bad for Trump and Republicans generally. So Iran wants to keep it going. Pretty sure they believe they'll have an easier time realizing their nuclear ambitions with Democrats in charge. Oh, that's interesting. They want to keep the war going as it is without risking the US Actually getting serious serious in taking this trait. Militarily, it's fine line for them to walk, stir things up and keep the US responding, but not so much that it cracks open a big can of big time whoop ass. So he suggests, Apollo suggests the following policies.

[A]

1.

[B]

No more talking with Iran till they completely open the straight and 2 don't attempt a military take over the straight if we're not willing to do whatever it takes to win. Nothing would be worse than trying and then abandoning the I would agree with that.

[A]

Second point. Definitely. Yeah.

[B]

Wow. Mark in San Francisco said yes. So here are my thoughts. No point in doing this with half measures. Go for it, finish the job, whatever it takes. Forget about a negotiated deal. They'd never keep to it anyway. Bomb Iran into submission, try to avoid civilians, but otherwise no holds barred in conventional war terms. You know, I hear you, Mark, but it's pretty widely agreed by military experts that you can't win the fight from the air. You know, planes and missiles and bombs and stuff. You've got to put guys in. That's where America goes. Wait, what?

[A]

Let's see.

[B]

Kevin, the Texas Marine with one question is Greg the Army guy, wrote yesterday, My long lost twin, crusty old, cynical yet somehow still optimistic. Sounds like me. Even if you joined the wrong effing branch first. Drink on me. Should we ever meet. Pass this on to him if you can, please. There you go, Greg the Army guy. Kevin, the Texan from Marine wants to buy you a drink, then tell you you join the wrong effing branch. Let's see Jeff in Pacific Grove on the few ruining life for the many. It occurs to me that the refusal to punish criminal offenders, your story on repeat offenders. Yesterday was great. It's exactly the same issue as the refusal to punish students who disrupt classrooms. This misguided compassion starts early and continues into adulthood to the detriment of all.

[A]

Yeah, I was thinking about that when we were talking about police having to babysit a certain percentage. It reminds me of classes, you know, or bullies on the playground. There's only a handful, but they can be very disruptive if you just let them keep doing it.

[B]

Armstrong and Gettysburg.