Armstrong & Getty On Demand - Episode Summary: "35% Tariff If We Start The Show Late"

Release Date: April 3, 2025
Host: Armstrong & Getty
Podcast Platform: iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, etc.

Introduction

In this compelling episode of Armstrong & Getty On Demand, hosts Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty delve deep into the intricacies of the ongoing trade war initiated by former President Donald Trump. Titled "35% Tariff If We Start The Show Late," the episode provides an insightful analysis of the current tariff landscape, its historical context, economic implications, and political ramifications. Interspersed with their signature humor and sharp commentary, Armstrong and Getty offer listeners a comprehensive understanding of the trade tensions shaping the global economy.

The Trademark Trade War: Origins and Context

Joe Getty initiates the discussion by critiquing the media's superficial coverage of the tariff issue, emphasizing that the focus on the stock market's immediate reactions ("stock market's already down 3%" at [02:02]) fails to capture the broader and more enduring impact of the trade war. He argues that real news outlets often sideline substantial economic stories in favor of transient financial metrics.

Jack Armstrong echoes Joe's sentiments, pointing out the oversimplification prevalent in mainstream narratives. He criticizes the Wall Street Journal's editorial stance, highlighting its exaggerated portrayal of tariffs as catastrophic threats. For instance, Jack mocks the Journal's choice of words: "The Wall Street Journal is filled against lower garment with its poo poo is what I'm hinting at saying that this is a disastrous, horrifying, radical, wild move and Trump will ruin the economy" ([02:42]).

Historical Tariff Practices and Global Trade Dynamics

The hosts delve into the historical backdrop of tariffs, tracing back to post-World War II trade norms. Jack Armstrong explains that post-WWII protectionism was a strategic move to rebuild global economies, ensuring the U.S. remained a pivotal economic power. He states, "They accepted the post WW2 ground as it lies... It's free trade on that ground on that basis" ([08:01]).

Joe Getty brings attention to the existing tariffs imposed by other nations against the U.S., questioning the sincerity of so-called "free traders." He asks, "So when I hear people, a lot of the people that I really like politically say I'm a free trader to the bone... If Vietnam's got 80% tariffs on us, then what does, how does that factor into you're a free trader?" ([06:08]).

Impact on American Manufacturing and Consumers

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the ramifications of offshoring manufacturing and the resultant economic disparities. Jack Armstrong criticizes American corporations for prioritizing profit margins over domestic manufacturing, noting how companies like Levi's and Converse outsourced production to cheaper labor markets. He states, "There's been a long running experiment... We're selling to America primarily or Europe or whatever" ([09:57]).

Joe Getty adds that the decline in product quality, coupled with increased shipping efficiencies, has made imported goods more appealing to American consumers: "They can make a premium brand... they just figured out people are willing to buy tissue paper pants that will fall apart for a lower price" ([13:05]).

The hosts also discuss the cultural shift towards immediate gratification, contrasting it with previous generations' emphasis on durable, long-lasting products. Jack Armstrong muses, "We're a immediate gratification society in a way that was absolutely not true. 30, 40, 50 years ago" ([13:29]).

Political and Economic Ramifications of the Trade War

Joe Getty raises concerns about the concentration of tariff-setting power in the executive branch, questioning the prudence of such significant economic decisions being made by a single individual: "It seems like an awful big decision to be in the hands of one person" ([30:45]).

Jack Armstrong concurs, expressing unease over the potential for policy reversals with changing administrations. He underscores the uncertainty and instability introduced into the economy, stating, "This has thrown everything up in the air. They can't plan. They don't know where and how to invest" ([28:47]).

The discussion also touches upon historical precedents where tariff policies led to significant political fallout, citing the 1930s era when protectionist measures resulted in massive losses for specific political factions ([31:13]).

Media and Public Reactions

Throughout the episode, Armstrong and Getty critique various media outlets for their portrayal of the trade war. They highlight discrepancies and biases in reporting, advocating for a more nuanced and informed discourse. For example, they mock headlines like "ABC World leaders blast Trump tariffs as markets slump" ([15:56]) and question the completeness of such reports by incorporating perspectives on reciprocal tariffs imposed by other nations.

Arguments For and Against the Tariffs

The hosts present a balanced view by outlining both supporting and opposing arguments related to the tariffs:

• Pro-Tariff Arguments:

  • Economic Nationalism: Advocates argue that tariffs protect American jobs and industries from foreign competition.
  • Reciprocal Measures: Implementing tariffs forces other nations to reduce their own tariffs on American goods, leveling the playing field.
  • Stimulating Domestic Manufacturing: By making imported goods more expensive, tariffs incentivize consumers to purchase domestically produced items.

• Anti-Tariff Arguments:

  • Increased Costs for Consumers: Tariffs lead to higher prices for imported goods, burdening American consumers.
  • Retaliatory Actions: Other countries may impose their own tariffs, harming American exporters and creating trade barriers.
  • Long-Term Economic Uncertainty: Persistent tariffs introduce unpredictability, deterring investment and hindering economic growth.

Joe Getty references former Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen's perspective, suggesting that American consumers might not bear significant cost increases despite the higher tariffs ([24:36]).

Notable Quotes

• Joe Getty ([02:02]): "Any source that leads with the stock market's already down 3%... they're not serious about discussing this because that's a dumb way to look at it."

• Jack Armstrong ([02:42]): "The Wall Street Journal is filled against lower garment with its poo poo... this is a disastrous, horrifying, radical, wild move and Trump will ruin the economy."

• Joe Getty ([06:08]): "If Vietnam's got 80% tariffs on us, then what does, how does that factor into you're a free trader?"

• Jack Armstrong ([13:29]): "We're a immediate gratification society in a way that was absolutely not true. 30, 40, 50 years ago."

• Joe Getty ([30:45]): "It seems like an awful big decision to be in the hands of one person."

• Jack Armstrong ([28:47]): "This has thrown everything up in the air. They can't plan. They don't know where and how to invest."

• Donald Trump ([10:20]): "For decades our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered... I will sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world."

Conclusion and Future Outlook

As the episode draws to a close, Armstrong and Getty emphasize the uncertainty surrounding the trade war's trajectory. They acknowledge the difficulty in predicting how other nations will retaliate and the long-term effects on both the American economy and global trade relations. Jack Armstrong opines, "This has thrown everything up in the air... the dust needs to settle before anybody knows what direction this is likely to move" ([30:20]).

The hosts also express concern over the consolidation of tariff-setting power within the executive branch, warning of potential economic and political instability should future administrations alter or reverse current policies.

Final Thoughts

"35% Tariff If We Start The Show Late" offers listeners a thorough examination of the complexities surrounding tariffs and trade wars. Through their engaging dialogue and incisive analysis, Armstrong and Getty shed light on how these economic policies intersect with consumer behavior, corporate strategies, and political landscapes. Whether you're an economist or a casual listener, this episode provides valuable insights into one of the most pressing issues in contemporary global economics.

Listen to the full episode on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts to gain a deeper understanding and hear more expert opinions on this evolving trade situation.