A Sea Change in European Thinking. Jim Tankersley Talks to A&G

Summary

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Armstrong & Getty On Demand

Episode: "A Sea Change in European Thinking. Jim Tankersley Talks to A&G"

Release Date: September 19, 2025
Special Guest: Jim Tankersley (Berlin bureau chief, The New York Times)

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Episode Overview

This episode features an insightful conversation between the Armstrong & Getty hosts and Jim Tankersley, currently reporting from Berlin for The New York Times. The main theme is the ongoing transformation ("sea change") in European security and political thinking—especially regarding military spending, independence from U.S. support, fiscal challenges, and immigration policy—against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and shifting global alliances.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump, Putin, and the Status Quo in Ukraine

[03:15–04:56]

• The show opens referencing a press conference with Donald Trump in Great Britain alongside Prime Minister Carr Starmer, where Trump reiterates disappointment with Putin’s unwillingness to negotiate a Ukraine peace deal.
• Jim Tankersley observes that Trump’s attitude mirrors European anxieties: "What we're hearing from President Trump is what a lot of Europe has been kind of hearing and a little bit wary about for weeks and months now, which is kind of just like the status quo. We're just kind of hoping this is going to get better and we're not sure how it's going to happen." (04:13)

2. Growing European Self-Reliance in Security

[04:56–06:38]

• The hosts quote Polish leader Donald Tusk’s provocative question: “Why do we, the 500 million, need the 340 million in the United States to protect us against 160 million [Russians]?”
• Tankersley reports a clear shift: “I think we've seen like a real flood of Europeans toward that Tusk perspective... this real idea, like, hey, we, we need to be spending the money here to defend ourselves, to make ourselves ready, not just, you know, to help Ukraine, but to ward off possible attack from Russia.” (05:27)
  • Germany, in particular, is massively increasing military spending out of fear of potential Russian aggression beyond Ukraine.
  • Everyday Germans and officials now commonly discuss the need to prepare for direct Russian threats, once considered “insane”: "A lot of people thought it'd be insane for [Putin] to go into Ukraine." (06:51)

3. Anxiety Over Continuity of American Support

[06:58–07:47]

• There’s real anxiety that U.S. commitments to Europe may not be guaranteed:
  “Part of it is because they have been shocked at the idea that, oh, maybe America won't be there. Maybe... America will not have our back, but we hope they do." – Jim Tankersley (07:18)
• This fear is fueling renewed emphasis on domestic defense capabilities among European leaders.

4. Fiscal Pressures and Lessons from Britain

[07:47–09:27]

• The hosts highlight the UK’s looming fiscal crisis, suggesting the U.S. may be headed down the same path.
• Tankersley frames this as a broader issue of "fiscal space": “Great Britain does have a coming fiscal space problem. France does. I mean, a lot of the wealthy world does. I mean, America does, too.” (08:17)
  • The need to rearm and spend more on defense comes right as most Western countries approach budgetary limits.
  • He notes the lack of political will—on both sides of the Atlantic—to cut spending on social programs (“butter”) in order to fund defense (“guns”).

5. The Immigration Situation: Shifting Politics and Reality

[09:27–10:37]

• European immigration politics remain turbulent, but the reality is changing.
• Tankersley: “The statistics are that the flow of immigrants to Western Europe has fallen dramatically in the last year. And... Poland and Germany both have new enhanced border checks... But the polls don't suggest that voters are giving them a lot of credit, any of it yet." (09:42)
  • Despite toughened border controls and declining immigration numbers, public perception hasn’t shifted yet.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On German perspectives shifting:
  "But the German, German leaders I talked to are constantly worried that... Putin would not stop at Ukraine, that he might go to some places like Lithuania or... Poland... and that, you know, Berlin is not that far away..." – Jim Tankersley (05:55)

• On American reliability:
  "Maybe America will not have our back, but we hope they do. We think they're still our friends and either way, we need to do the right thing for ourselves here..." – Jim Tankersley (07:21)

• On Europe’s fiscal squeeze:
  “Great Britain does have a coming fiscal space problem. France does. I mean, a lot of the wealthy world does.” – Jim Tankersley (08:18)

• On migration declines:
  “The flow of immigrants to Western Europe has fallen dramatically in the last year... But the polls don't suggest that voters are giving them a lot of credit, any of it yet.” – Jim Tankersley (09:43)

• On the perks of foreign correspondence:
  “I’m currently on a train from down to Munich because they have this annual event here... Oktoberfest. And so, you know, every... we do a lot of very serious and difficult reporting as reporters. And if every once in a while you can go like I'm going to do on, on Saturday and, and watch them tap the first keg... for journalism.” – Jim Tankersley (10:55)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump, Putin, and Ukraine — [03:15–04:56]
• European defense self-reliance — [04:56–06:38]
• Fear of U.S. withdrawal — [06:58–07:47]
• British (and global) fiscal problems — [07:47–09:27]
• Immigration realities vs. perceptions — [09:27–10:37]
• Personal note on reporting from Oktoberfest — [10:37–11:41]

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Closing Thoughts

This conversation offered a candid, on-the-ground view from a top American journalist living in Europe at a time of major geopolitical, economic, and social transition. The show’s tone was informed, concerned, but occasionally light-hearted—especially when touching on the perks of international reporting ("sober festival for journalism!"). Listeners come away with a clearer understanding of how Europe is recalibrating its security and political posture for an uncertain future.

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Transcript

[Jim Tankersley]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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[Jim Tankersley]

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[Jim Tankersley]

Seven wars. Wars that were unsolvable. Wars that couldn't be negotiated or done. We've done, the US has done seven of them. The one that I thought would be easiest would be because of my relationship with President Putin. But he's let me down. He's really let me down. Was going to be Russia and Ukraine, but we'll see how that turns out.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah. What's the next step on that? I'd love to know. That's Donald Trump. He is standing right next to Carr Starmer, the prime minister of Great Britain right now. And they're doing a press conference as Trump is over in England. And we thought we would talk to Jim Tankersley. And welcome back to the Armstrong and Getty Show. He knows a lot about what's going on with European politics. He's the Berlin bureau chief for the New York Times. Jim Tankersley, welcome back. How are you?

[Jim Tankersley]

Hey, my pleasure to be back. I'm doing great.

[Podcast Host]

Any news out of Great Britain that you think is worth talking about to start off with?

[Jim Tankersley]

I mean, I think what we just heard the president talking about is what he's been saying for a while. He really did think that this conflict was going to be a lot easier to broker a peace deal on. He keeps expressing varying degrees of annoyance with Vladimir Putin for not coming to the table and brokering a deal. But he's also not, we didn't hear him say any new big things that he's going to do to put the pressure on. So I think, I think what we're hearing from President Trump is what a lot of Europe has been kind of hearing and a little bit wary about for weeks and months now, which is kind of just like the status quo. We're just kind of hoping this is going to get better and we're not sure how it's going to happen.

[Podcast Host]

Okay, well, that's really interesting. I want to ask you this. One of my favorite statements of the last couple of months is that guy from Poland, Tusk, who said, why do we need, why do we, the 500 million, need the 340 million in the United States to protect us against 160 million. I love that. Just as a point of view of why don't we take care of this ourselves in Europe? Do many people in Europe agree with his attitude?

[Jim Tankersley]

Well, I mean, you know, it's really interesting. I came to Germany for the Times in January, and in the time that I've been here, I think we've seen like a real flood of Europeans toward the, that Tusk perspective for lots of reasons. But, but this real idea, like, hey, we, we need to be spending the money here to defend ourselves, to make ourselves ready, not just, you know, to help Ukraine, but to ward off possible attack from Russia. Something you hear in Germany all the time now. I mean, the Germans are massively increasing their military spending and it's because they are afraid that they could be next or really, you know, they could be drawn into some sort of. Yes, I mean, people don't believe me sometimes when I tell them this back home. But the German, German leaders I talked to are constantly worried that, that, that Putin would not stop at Ukraine, that he might go to some places like Lithuania or he, he might go into Poland, as we've seen Russia flying drones over Poland already and that, you know, Berlin is not that far away from there and that they need to be ready on their own, you know, with or without help from the Americans to defend against that sort of an attack. And that's, that's why they're just going to spend a, trying to build up their defenses again.

[Podcast Host]

Well, that's really interesting. I mean, on one hand I'm glad they're taking it seriously. On the other hand, that would be insane for Putin to take on Germany and NATO and everything that goes with.

[Jim Tankersley]

Would be, I mean, but I think that people thought it would be, A lot of people thought it'd be insane for him to go into Ukraine.

[Podcast Host]

True.

[Jim Tankersley]

And, and so there's, I think there is really a sea change in how a lot of European leaders, and by the way, not all the public there, there are some, you know, East Germans in the former east, for example, who still would like to re. Establish much friendlier ties with Russia and try to avoid war that way. But, but particularly among the sort of German leaders I cover, there's just been this big shift. And, and, and I gotta say, part of it is, is because they have been shocked at the idea that, oh, maybe America won't be there. Maybe it's like, maybe America will not have our back, but we hope they do. We think they're still our friends and either way, we need to do the right thing for ourselves here, which is to have our own defense capabilities get better.

[Podcast Host]

Since Trump is in Great Britain, I'll ask you about this. I was listening to a podcast the other day with a writer from the Telegraph talking about the financial situation that Great Britain is. They're like, you know, several years further down the road from us of going insolvent because they spend more money than they take in. And they've made all kinds of promises they're not going to be able to keep on the current trajectories. Is it that bad? And can we look at our future ahead of us in Great Britain?

[Jim Tankersley]

I mean, as you know, I covered economics before I came here, so I think a lot about this stuff. This is what economists call fiscal space. How much money do you have kind of left before it gets really hard for you to keep borrowing? And Great Britain does have a coming fiscal space problem. France does. I mean, a lot of the wealthy world does. I mean, America does, too. And we've been, there's certainly been a lot of warnings about it for a long time, but the situations have worsened in all of those countries. And so it's going, that's, that comes at a time when, when all three of those countries also want to be spending a lot more on the military and when nobody, frankly, I mean, maybe I'm wrong about the American debate, but I don't hear a lot of arguments coming out of Washington that we, we should ramp back this amount of spending, particularly on, on, on, on, you know, butter so that we can buy more guns. And that's, those are conversations that, you know, most experts I talked to think are going to be suddenly forced across Europe and America.

[Podcast Host]

Well, it's a damn interesting time for you to be in Europe. So you have the, the military situation, as you point out, spending more money, worried about actually being attacked. You got the financial problems. And then the immigration situation that's just roiling so many countries.

[Jim Tankersley]

Well, the immigration situation is fascinating because the, I mean, it's not a secret. It's the statistics. But the statistics are that the flow of immigrants to Western Europe has fallen dramatically in the last year. And the new governments, there's plenty of new governments that have cracked down on border control. The public, Poland and Germany both have new enhanced border checks, and they're getting a lot of credit for restricting those flows. But the polls don't suggest that voters are giving them a lot of credit, any of it yet. And it might take a while to sort of show them progress. But it's Sort of this weird thing that people don't realize that yeah, they had an enormous amount of migration over the last 10 years historically for Europe, but also that flow of immigrants has gone down.

[Podcast Host]

Before I let you go, I'm sure there's a. Germans have good words for things. I'm sure German language has a good word for the feeling I've got right now. Maybe it's just envy that you and your family are living in Germany for a while while you do this job. That's got to be freaking cool. As cool as it sounds.

[Jim Tankersley]

I mean, if I, I'm gonna make it sound even cooler by telling you I'm currently on a train from down to Munich because they, they have this annual event here which, which for journalistic purposes I need to go visit, which is called Oktoberfest. And, and so, you know, every. We, we do, we do a lot of, we do a lot of very serious and difficult reporting as reporters. And if every once in a while you can go like I'm going to do on, on Saturday and, and watch them tap the first keg. Oh, wow. Sober festival for journalism.

[Podcast Host]

For journalism, yes. You're standing up for journalism. That's fantastic. Good for you, man. Jim Tankersley, Berlin bureau chief for the New York Times. Thanks for your time today.

[Jim Tankersley]

Yeah, thanks for having me. It's always fun.

[Podcast Host]

He's a really talented guy, so he's obviously earned it, but man, he moved his whole family there and they've been living in Germany for a little while. But a cool experience to get to have Armstrong and Gettysburg stop settling for weak sound. It's time to level up your game and bring the boom. Hit the town with the ultra durable.

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[Podcast Host]

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[Jim Tankersley]

Why is this taking so long? This thing is ancient.

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[Jim Tankersley]

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[Jim Tankersley]

This is an iHeart podcast.