Armstrong & Getty On Demand

Episode: "A Sea Change in European Thinking. Jim Tankersley Talks to A&G"

Release Date: September 19, 2025
Special Guest: Jim Tankersley (Berlin bureau chief, The New York Times)

Episode Overview

This episode features an insightful conversation between the Armstrong & Getty hosts and Jim Tankersley, currently reporting from Berlin for The New York Times. The main theme is the ongoing transformation ("sea change") in European security and political thinking—especially regarding military spending, independence from U.S. support, fiscal challenges, and immigration policy—against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and shifting global alliances.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump, Putin, and the Status Quo in Ukraine

[03:15–04:56]

• The show opens referencing a press conference with Donald Trump in Great Britain alongside Prime Minister Carr Starmer, where Trump reiterates disappointment with Putin’s unwillingness to negotiate a Ukraine peace deal.
• Jim Tankersley observes that Trump’s attitude mirrors European anxieties: "What we're hearing from President Trump is what a lot of Europe has been kind of hearing and a little bit wary about for weeks and months now, which is kind of just like the status quo. We're just kind of hoping this is going to get better and we're not sure how it's going to happen." (04:13)

2. Growing European Self-Reliance in Security

[04:56–06:38]

• The hosts quote Polish leader Donald Tusk’s provocative question: “Why do we, the 500 million, need the 340 million in the United States to protect us against 160 million [Russians]?”
• Tankersley reports a clear shift: “I think we've seen like a real flood of Europeans toward that Tusk perspective... this real idea, like, hey, we, we need to be spending the money here to defend ourselves, to make ourselves ready, not just, you know, to help Ukraine, but to ward off possible attack from Russia.” (05:27)
  • Germany, in particular, is massively increasing military spending out of fear of potential Russian aggression beyond Ukraine.
  • Everyday Germans and officials now commonly discuss the need to prepare for direct Russian threats, once considered “insane”: "A lot of people thought it'd be insane for [Putin] to go into Ukraine." (06:51)

3. Anxiety Over Continuity of American Support

[06:58–07:47]

• There’s real anxiety that U.S. commitments to Europe may not be guaranteed:
  “Part of it is because they have been shocked at the idea that, oh, maybe America won't be there. Maybe... America will not have our back, but we hope they do." – Jim Tankersley (07:18)
• This fear is fueling renewed emphasis on domestic defense capabilities among European leaders.

4. Fiscal Pressures and Lessons from Britain

[07:47–09:27]

• The hosts highlight the UK’s looming fiscal crisis, suggesting the U.S. may be headed down the same path.
• Tankersley frames this as a broader issue of "fiscal space": “Great Britain does have a coming fiscal space problem. France does. I mean, a lot of the wealthy world does. I mean, America does, too.” (08:17)
  • The need to rearm and spend more on defense comes right as most Western countries approach budgetary limits.
  • He notes the lack of political will—on both sides of the Atlantic—to cut spending on social programs (“butter”) in order to fund defense (“guns”).

5. The Immigration Situation: Shifting Politics and Reality

[09:27–10:37]

• European immigration politics remain turbulent, but the reality is changing.
• Tankersley: “The statistics are that the flow of immigrants to Western Europe has fallen dramatically in the last year. And... Poland and Germany both have new enhanced border checks... But the polls don't suggest that voters are giving them a lot of credit, any of it yet." (09:42)
  • Despite toughened border controls and declining immigration numbers, public perception hasn’t shifted yet.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On German perspectives shifting:
  "But the German, German leaders I talked to are constantly worried that... Putin would not stop at Ukraine, that he might go to some places like Lithuania or... Poland... and that, you know, Berlin is not that far away..." – Jim Tankersley (05:55)

• On American reliability:
  "Maybe America will not have our back, but we hope they do. We think they're still our friends and either way, we need to do the right thing for ourselves here..." – Jim Tankersley (07:21)

• On Europe’s fiscal squeeze:
  “Great Britain does have a coming fiscal space problem. France does. I mean, a lot of the wealthy world does.” – Jim Tankersley (08:18)

• On migration declines:
  “The flow of immigrants to Western Europe has fallen dramatically in the last year... But the polls don't suggest that voters are giving them a lot of credit, any of it yet.” – Jim Tankersley (09:43)

• On the perks of foreign correspondence:
  “I’m currently on a train from down to Munich because they have this annual event here... Oktoberfest. And so, you know, every... we do a lot of very serious and difficult reporting as reporters. And if every once in a while you can go like I'm going to do on, on Saturday and, and watch them tap the first keg... for journalism.” – Jim Tankersley (10:55)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump, Putin, and Ukraine — [03:15–04:56]
• European defense self-reliance — [04:56–06:38]
• Fear of U.S. withdrawal — [06:58–07:47]
• British (and global) fiscal problems — [07:47–09:27]
• Immigration realities vs. perceptions — [09:27–10:37]
• Personal note on reporting from Oktoberfest — [10:37–11:41]

Closing Thoughts

This conversation offered a candid, on-the-ground view from a top American journalist living in Europe at a time of major geopolitical, economic, and social transition. The show’s tone was informed, concerned, but occasionally light-hearted—especially when touching on the perks of international reporting ("sober festival for journalism!"). Listeners come away with a clearer understanding of how Europe is recalibrating its security and political posture for an uncertain future.