Armstrong & Getty On Demand
Episode: "Be Afraid. Be Very Afraid. Ian Bremmer Talks to A&G"
Date: January 8, 2026

Episode Overview

In this “Extra Large” edition, Armstrong & Getty welcome Ian Bremmer, President of the Eurasia Group, to discuss the Eurasia Group's Top Risks of 2026. With a turbulent year ahead, the hosts delve into global threats and shifting power dynamics with Bremmer’s signature candor and keen insight—covering everything from AI and U.S.–China rivalry to Europe’s political dilemmas and the enduring impact of Donald Trump.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Awkwardness of TV Teasers & Media Banter

• [00:23–02:12] The show opens lightheartedly with the hosts and Bremmer joking about the awkward pauses during TV teasers, highlighting the media’s quirks.

The Risks of AI Eating Its Users (Risk #8)

• [02:12–05:19]
  • AI investment is surging, but pressure mounts for commercialization and profit, especially in consumer-facing sectors.
  • Dangers include “testing these things real time on society, on us, on our kids.” (Ian Bremmer, [02:51])
  • Bremmer draws parallels to social media, warning that once profit became the focus, platforms pivoted toward addictive engagement—and AI will amplify that effect.
  • He stresses the lack of regulation and the risks to political systems and mental wellbeing.
• Quote:

  “AI is a hell of a lot more capable at programming us, at changing our behavior, making us believe that we’re talking to people when actually we’re talking to things… There are people like that in society. We call them sociopaths.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [03:40]

U.S. as the Premier Petrostate vs. China the Electrostate (Risk #2)

• [05:19–07:39]
  • The U.S. is doubling down on fossil fuels and neglecting renewables ("woke climate energies"), while China invests massively in electrical infrastructure.
  • China’s “electric stack” includes nuclear, wind, solar, batteries, supply chain, and critical minerals—giving them a competitive edge, especially as electricity becomes central in a world dominated by AI.
  • The U.S. risks being left behind technologically and economically.
• Quote:

  “We’re going out there selling 20th century oil, gas and coal… They’re going out there selling 21st century energy infrastructure.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [06:13]

• Clarification:

  “The electric stack… is everything that is necessary to produce huge amounts of electricity that is powering our economy.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [06:41]

China’s Deflation Trap (Risk #7)

• [07:39–08:55]
  • China faces persistent deflation and weak consumer demand but isn’t responding with major stimulus.
  • Bremmer explains China is exporting its surplus, which could trigger global economic backlash, but the energy rivalry with the U.S. is a more immediate and significant risk.

Europe Under Siege & Russia’s Second Front (Risks #6 & #5)

• [08:55–13:48]
  • Europe’s geopolitical fragility stems from decades of reliance on U.S. security, trade, and support—now eroding.
  • Trump is an “accelerant” of this decline but not the root cause. U.S. disengagement has forced Europe into a defensive position.
  • Europe struggles with slow productivity, lack of tech innovation, and the rising influence of Eurosceptic parties (AfD, National Rally, Farage’s Reform, etc.).
  • Russia exploits U.S. inaction, escalating hybrid warfare: drones into NATO countries, sabotage, espionage, and even assassination attempts.
  • The ambiguous nature of these attacks complicates NATO’s Article 5 security guarantee.
• Quote:

  “This gray war… it’s not sending in American bombers and that’s a lot harder to respond to.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [13:39]

Africa, Instability, and the Water Weapon (Risk #10 & General Trends)

• [13:48–15:01]
  • Africa's instability is driven by the "coup belt," governance failures, and a surge in Islamist radicalism—amplified by lack of tech and electrical infrastructure.
  • Bremmer stresses electrifying Africa is key to unlocking its potential.

U.S. Political Revolution (Risk #1)

• [15:01–17:11]
  • Bremmer describes the risk as an unprecedented internal political transformation, as Trump and supporters seek to “weaponize the system” in retaliation for what they perceive as persecution.
  • Norms and checks are breaking down daily. Bremmer expects Trump won’t succeed fully, but damage to U.S. institutions is accumulating.
• Quote:

  “Everything he is focused on is an effort to ensure that the presidency operates above checks and balances and above rule of law.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [17:09]

Trump as Symptom, Not Cause

• [17:11–19:28]
  • Trump is framed as a symptom, beneficiary, and accelerant of deeper grievances—elites perceived as thriving at the expense of ordinary Americans.
  • Disconnection and lack of trust stem from decades of unmet promises, free trade agreements, immigration, economic dissatisfaction, and more.
• Quote:

  “I don’t think Trump is the cause of this. I think he’s a symptom. I think he’s a beneficiary. I think he’s clearly an accelerant.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [17:36]

The Uncertain Future of American Politics (Post-Trump)

• [19:28–22:16]
  • The hosts reflect on whether the “Trump era” will outlive Trump, suggesting that political style and polarization may persist across parties.
  • Discussion of New Year’s messaging by Gavin Newsom as a sign that Trump-style rhetoric is contagious, even among the opposition.
  • J.D. Vance and others are less likely to succeed by copying Trump’s playbook, as the political landscape will continue to shift unpredictably.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On AI’s dangers:

  “Testing these things real time on society, on us, on our kids… That just seems like it is not destined to go well.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [02:51]

• On China vs. U.S. energy strategy:

  “Who’s going to be better at powering the AI? Who’s going to be better at feeding their people? And the answer is the Chinese. That’s not a position the Americans should be in.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [06:17]

• On Europe’s strategic impotence:

  “The Americans go into Venezuela and they take out Maduro… the Europeans are all privately saying, ‘Oh my God, this is illegal…’ Publicly, they don’t say—they’re monitoring the situation because they don’t actually have the power to do very much about it.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [10:39]

• On Russia’s hybrid warfare:

  “How about Russian ships dragging anchor and destroying fiber optic cables in the North Sea?… That is a hybrid war that NATO frontline states will increasingly respond to.”
  —Ian Bremmer, [11:48]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:12] – Risks of AI and lack of regulation
• [05:24] – U.S. as petro state vs. China’s electrical investment
• [07:39] – China’s deflation/exporting surplus
• [08:55] – Europe’s weakened role and dependence on U.S.
• [11:11] – Russia’s hybrid escalation strategies
• [13:48] – Africa’s instability and developmental gap
• [15:01] – U.S. political revolution threat
• [17:11] – Trump as symptom/acclerant of global discontent
• [19:28] – The enduring legacy of Trumpist politics and bidirectional polarization

Final Thoughts

Armstrong & Getty and Ian Bremmer provide a lively, insightful tour of 2026’s greatest geopolitical hazards, with a special focus on how technological, societal, and leadership shifts intersect. The tone is conversational but urgent, emphasizing both global interdependence and mounting domestic vulnerabilities. For listeners seeking an engaging, accessible guide to the world’s risks, this episode delivers clear-eyed analysis and plenty of food for thought.

Quote to sum it up:

“Be afraid. Be very afraid. But of what?”
—Armstrong & Getty, [00:02]