I Have a Why, and It's Burning

Summary

Armstrong & Getty On Demand

Episode: I Have a Why, and It's Burning
Date: March 6, 2026
Podcast: Armstrong & Getty On Demand (iHeartPodcasts)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the challenges and peculiarities of modern political leadership, focusing extensively on California Governor Gavin Newsom—scrutinizing his media appearances, policy record, and prospects for higher office. Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty, with producer Michael, tackle the inherent difficulties of running for president, public perception of politicians, and broader issues like the rise of socialism, information literacy, and the cultural disconnect between real news and entertainment. The episode maintains the classic A&G blend of wit, skepticism, and cultural critique.

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Key Discussion Points

1. Gavin Newsom in the Spotlight

[03:30–15:52]

• The “I’m No Better Than You” Persona:
  The A&G team criticizes Newsom and others (like AOC) for attempts at populist relatability in public speaking, questioning its effectiveness.

  Jack: “If you just sit in front of people and say, hey, you dumb, I’m dumb, too. I can’t even read, you know, if you present it like that, it’s not that handy.” [03:30]

• Media Treatment and Policy Record:
  The hosts cite critical articles that suggest Newsom has “never faced major league pitching,” with California’s soft political environment and favorable media shielding him.

  Michael: “He’s the product of a one party, very soft media state. He’s never faced major league pitching and he can’t hit it.” [07:23]

• On Policy and Poverty:
  Newsom’s explanations for California’s persistent poverty and housing issues are mocked for shifting blame and offering little transparency.

  Jack: “I don’t understand why politicians don’t bring people along for the ride. What’s the supplemental poverty rate? I don’t know what that is. Why wouldn’t he explain it?” [09:14]

• The Motivation to Run
  Discussion includes Mark Halpern’s interview with Newsom, focusing on the driving force (“the why”) behind a presidential run—and the toll it takes on families.

  Mark Halpern (Newsom voice): “Right now, the reason I'm leaning in is because I have a why and it’s burning. And I’m going to stand up and I’m going to draw a line...” [10:35]

  The hosts dismiss Newsom’s assertion that his kids would have veto power over his candidacy as unlikely.

  Jack: “I don’t think he’s going to let that be the primary decision.” [12:56]

• Form vs. Substance:
  Citing Willie Brown’s comment:

  Michael (reading): “Is it clear what Newsom actually believes? [Willie] Brown answered, ‘I don’t know. I’ve never asked him for fear. He doesn’t.’” [13:39]
  Jack, on Reagan: “Ronald Reagan was an actual movie star, but he knew what he believed.” [13:48]

• 2028 Prediction:
  Skepticism abounds over Newsom’s prospects; the sense is that he’ll struggle to win the nomination with heavyweight intra-party rivals like Rahm Emanuel.

  Jack: “The other Democrats are just going to kill him.” [14:04]
  Michael: “Rahm Emanuel is going to subject him to such a beating, they’re going to step in and stop the fight.” [14:14]

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2. Polls, Socialism, and Party Identity

[26:35–30:08]

• Rising Support for Socialism:
  Reviewing a Fox News poll that reveals 38% of voters think a shift toward socialism would be good—with support highest among younger and more liberal groups.

  Jack: “Two thirds of Democrats under 45 prefer socialism or leaning socialism.” [28:12]

• Party Labels Are Misleading:
  Both hosts note that many voters now eschew party labels, calling themselves “independent” while voting reliably for one side—leading to polls painting false pictures of party extremism.

• The “Socialism in the Classroom” Problem:
  Both criticize educational systems for failing to explain the flaws of socialism.

  Jack: “Nobody’s taking the time to say, here’s why socialism has failed everywhere it’s ever worked.” [29:30]
  Michael: “Anybody who’s against free markets is a lunatic.” [28:16]

  Armstrong gives a classic analogy about grade redistribution to explain why collectivism fails in practice.

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3. Celebrity Culture vs. Real News

[31:15–34:57]

• Entertainment as “The News”:
  A running joke and lament: many Americans treat celebrity gossip (e.g. TMZ, Entertainment Tonight) as news, to the detriment of civic awareness.

• Don’t Look Up Analogy:
  Jack references the film, where real threats are ignored in favor of celebrity break-ups—paralleling today’s inattentiveness to serious news.

  Jack: “That is pretty accurate as to where we are.” [33:11]

• Audience Self-Awareness:
  The team humorously suggests polling organizations should stratify respondents by real awareness, from “morons” to “experts.”

  Michael: “Let’s call the bottom group morons.” [34:31]

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4. The Informed Citizenry & Checking Out

[35:18–37:27]

• Low Engagement Numbers:
  Only 29% of Americans follow politics at all; just 14% follow closely enough to understand key issues.

  Jack: “That sounds about right to me.” [35:18]

• Why People Tune Out:
  A mix of news fatigue, skepticism, and cynicism—some due to perceived lack of consequences in society or loss of trust post-Vietnam.

  Jack: “So I’ve met more people that have decided that ... they just gave up. I checked out. I just. I don’t even pay attention anymore.” [36:19]

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5. Political Prediction Markets

[42:45–48:39]

• Rise in Betting on Political Outcomes:
  Discussion of new “prediction markets” (Kalshi, Polymarket) where people bet on everything from “Will Trump say ‘hottest’ in his speech?” to geopolitical events.

  • Some betters made huge money off inside knowledge of events, raising ethical and legal concerns.

  Michael: “There are various people who made a crapload of money on when the US Bombing campaign would start, even though it was secret.” [46:11]

• Hosts’ Introspective:
  Michael admits he could profit handsomely thanks to his political obsession, but isn’t greedy enough.

  Michael: “Oh, I could have made a mint. Yeah, just not greedy enough. That’s one of my faults. I’ll try to get greedy.” [48:27]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Newsom’s Motivation:

  Mark Halpern (as Newsom): “Right now, the reason I’m leaning in is because I have a why and it’s burning. And I’m going to stand up and I’m going to draw a line... I don’t like what’s going on in this country. I don’t. Period. Full stop.” [10:35]

• On Willie Brown’s Take:

  Michael (reading): “‘Is it clear what Newsom actually believes?’ Brown answered, ‘I don’t know. I’ve never asked him for fear. He doesn’t.’” [13:39]

• On Polling and Party Identity:

  Jack: “A lot of the normal people in both parties have now called themselves independents because hardly anybody wants to be attached to either party at this point.” [28:12]

• On Entertainment as News:

  Jack: “We were talking yesterday about people who refer to the news and it’s like TMZ or Entertainment Tonight... That’s what they call the news.” [22:33]

• On Teaching Socialism:

  Michael: “Anybody who’s against free markets is a lunatic. But I see your point. It’s worth keeping in mind.” [28:16]

• On Informed Citizenry:

  Jack: “We need an informed citizenry—that would take four lifetimes.” [36:36]

• On Prediction Markets:

  Michael: “They were making predictions as to what celebrities would show up at the super bowl... the original source of the information was the stepson [of Jeff Bezos] himself.” [47:23] Jack: “I gotta jump on these sites and see if there’s any categories that I feel like I’m particularly knowledgeable about while it still lasts.” [48:09]

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Timestamps for Highlights

• [03:30] — Jack critiques Newsom’s communication style
• [07:23] — Michael on Newsom’s sheltered record
• [09:14] — Confusion over “supplemental poverty rate”
• [10:35] — Halpern interviews Newsom on motivation
• [13:39] — Willie Brown’s doubts about Newsom’s convictions
• [14:14] — Mocking intra-party battles Newsom would face
• [28:12] — Jack on party identification trends
• [29:30] — Socialism/grading analogy
• [33:11] — Don’t Look Up as an allegory for news avoidance
• [35:18] — Poll numbers on Americans following politics
• [36:19] — Why people have checked out from news
• [46:11] — Prediction markets, insider trading angle
• [48:09] — Hosts joke about gambling on politics

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Tone & Style

Armstrong & Getty balance skepticism and humor with earnest concern about civic literacy, political authenticity, and modern media trends. Their language is direct, informal, and often self-deprecating, weaving current headlines into larger cultural observations.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This installment offers an incisive, wide-ranging critique of today’s political and media environment with Newsom as a central case study. Whether you’re interested in the prospects for 2028, changing party identities, the chasm between news and entertainment, or the ethics of political gambling, Armstrong & Getty tackle it all with wry wit and a willingness to call out absurdities—making for an entertaining but substantial listen.

Transcript

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[Michael]

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[Jack Armstrong]

broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty.

[Michael]

Armstrong and Getty. And now here's Armstrong and Getty.

[Mark Halpern]

I'm not, you know, I'm not trying to impress you. I'm just trying to impress upon you, I'm like you. I'm no better than you.

[Michael]

I'm an idiot. I'm stupid. Which again, fit to man an ice cream stick.

[Jack Armstrong]

If you heard the like longer version that Mark Halpern had to drag out of him. It's a fairly compelling story of a learning disability that he was able to overcome and become a successful guy. But if you just sit in front of people and say, hey, you dumb, I'm dumb, too. I can't even read, you know, if you present it like that, it's not that handy.

[Michael]

Yeah, a couple of great articles out in the last couple of days, one in the Wall Street Journal about it's hard to find somebody with the strength and the stamina and the smarts to run for president. It's extremely difficult.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, he's going to speak to that in a few minutes with another part of an interview.

[Michael]

Right. And it's by a guy by the name of Kenneth Kajigian, and he highlights AOC and Gavin and I wish we had time to get into the AOC thing. I'll just read you a very short bit of it. For starters, AOC's public speaking is agonizingly amateurish. She reads speeches like a seventh grader. Her eyes dart up and down in a manner that betray rote memorization, not scholarship, et cetera, et cetera. And then he gets into Gavin Newsome in the poor circuit, on the interview circuit with the book and the I'm like you, I'm no better than you. And he gets into how that was just terrible. We've covered that pretty thoroughly. But then he says, for the 22 years since he became mayor of San Francisco, Mr. Newsom hasn't driven the freeways or pumped his own gasoline, said bodyguards protecting him in public. California political media, with few exceptions, have been friendly or neutral. His governance reflects a generational failure to dive into the substance of policy and study the political and cultural depths of the American people, et cetera. He just does not have the stuff he says. And then in the Free Press, Newsom looks small in the face of a big war. He's tried to make himself a national figure and a figure who's into foreign policy with the war. And let's see, who is this? In the Free Press, Peter Savodnik writes, it was unsettling to watch California Governor Gavin Newsom on Monday spouting off a rejiggered blood libel this week, and not simply because Democrats have mostly succumbed to fashionable Jew hate. Quote, we have to reconcile why our bombs were used or Israeli bombs were used to kill children, young girls at a school, and what the imminent threat was. He said at a press conference meant to slam Donald Trump's war on Iran might sound anodyne. Who could possibly be against saving little girls? But it's not. It's the old trope of the Jew as murder of gentile children and more to the point, the asymmetrical anger when it comes to all things Jewish. Apologies, Israel. I'm sorry. Apologize, Israeli. Never mind. Then he goes into the details of it. But he had no harsh words at all for the mullahs, had no harsh words for machine gunning the people of Iran in the streets. And, and then he's. The final shot is right now the most important thing is that the front runner for the 28 Democratic presidential nomination seems congenitally incapable of rising above his tribe and conceiving of the war as anything other than yet another opportunity for politic politicking, for taking a few shots and scoring some points. This is way too important for that.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. That's interesting because it would have been so easy to come out and say, I'm glad the Ayatollah was gone. Is a terrible regime. We're better off without it. But we got to do this smart. We all remember Iraq, you know, that sort of thing. Yeah. Would it be easy to do?

[Michael]

Yeah, he's really steered into the Israel's an apartheid state, blah, blah, blah. Shouldn't let them force us into war.

[Jack Armstrong]

I mean, the number of politicians that get drug into the Twitter conversation as if Twitter is America. It's, it's practically everybody. Yeah. It's one of the things Trump understands better than a lot of other people that Twitter is not America.

[Michael]

I've been saying for a while that Gavi cannot hit major league pitching. He's the product of a one party, very soft media state. He's never faced major league pitching and he can't hit it. But putting aside the specifics, you've got his record, which is just unbelievably terrible and so easy to hang around his neck. A couple of recent interviews we thought were illustrative. Let's start with clip 60, Michael. It's Katie Couric, who apparently is still podcasting or something with Gabby Newsome.

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Poverty rate tied with Louisiana, the highest unemployment. And as Nick Kristof of the New

[Michael]

York Times recently wrote, Mississippi schools outperform California schools, especially for poor kids. Now, people see that or hear that

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or read that, and they're like, no, thanks, California.

[Jack Armstrong]

No, thanks, Gavin Newsom.

[Michael]

We're good.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, well, the poverty rate is. You're talking about the supplemental poverty rate. Our poverty rate's about average, and we're right up there with Florida, Louisiana, and others with a supplemental poverty rate, which has been the case for 40 years. And the original sin there is housing, which has been a problem in California since Ronald Reagan left office as governor. And we simply have a supply demand imbalance. And we have zoning policies and NIMBYism that have been legendary. And we've finally broken through with some of the most progressive housing reforms in US History. Our biggest critics, like Ezra Klein, would even acknowledge that progress in that respect.

[Michael]

Ezra Klein is not your biggest critic. Oh, my God, that's hilarious.

[Jack Armstrong]

That's pretty funny.

[Michael]

Yeah, that. Please. His record is abysmal. He is very skilled, though, at pointing to the problems that decades of Democratic rule have brought California and saying, this is a challenge we're taking on. We're taking it on boldly and innovatively.

[Jack Armstrong]

I don't understand why politicians don't bring people along for the ride. What's the supplemental poverty rate? I don't know what that is. Why wouldn't he explain it? Maybe because it hurts his argument. Maybe. I don't know. I have no idea what it means.

[Michael]

And then. Do you want to set up the

[Jack Armstrong]

clip with Mark Halpert? Yeah. This is not. This is definitely not a bashing Gavin Newsom sort of clip. It's. It's just a. Gives you an idea for one thing, what it's like to run for president. Gavin does present this as unique to him, but I guarantee it's true for anybody who ever decides to try to run for the biggest office in the world.

[Michael]

So what would you say to all

[Jack Armstrong]

the people, including, I'll say, Governor, some of your own advisors who contact me and say, mark, you look like an idiot when you say Gavin Newsom might

[Michael]

not run or won't run. What should I.

[Jack Armstrong]

What would you say to all those people?

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah, just that they, they're wrong and they should be cautious about that. That said, look, you got to have, I've said this a hundred times. It's the Nietzsche. You got to have a big enough why to endure any.

[Michael]

How.

[Mark Halpern]

You just described the how, how the hell you endure the slings and arrows. These guys, look, I'm not these, they want to take me out. And you don't even know the half of it. You all think you know the half of it. Everybody you're writing. You don't know the half of what these guys are doing, the Trump administration's doing. You know what they're capable of doing. You know intuitively what they're doing. I have a better sense of what they actually are doing. This, this is zero sum for them. They want to flatten me.

[Michael]

I get it.

[Mark Halpern]

So it's not that. But you know what? Right now, the reason I'm leaning in is because I have a why and it's burning. And I'm going to stand up and I'm going to draw a line. And we drew lines literally here with Proposition 50. And I'm going to push back and I'm going to push. I'm going to hit this bully back in the mouth. I don't like what's going on in this country. I don't period. Full stop. I'm not counting today. And anyway, I don't like what's going on Primetime Fox. I don't. I don't like the racism, the anti. I don't like any of this. And so I'm going to call it out. If I feel that way, you sure as hell better know that I will run for president as it relates to the future of this country. But you're right, that has to be backed up with the family first. And I will not screw that up. So your answer is yes. They all have a veto. Every single one of those kids have a veto.

[Michael]

If you have a burning in your Y, you probably need a shot of penicillin. But yeah, your state mandates that parents not be told that little children are gender transitioning at school. Your state mandates that kids be caught taught critical queer theory and transgender theory, it's in the law.

[Jack Armstrong]

Nobody wants that to that stuff of you don't know the half. They're trying to take me out. You don't know half that what they're willing to do. And he's acting like it's the Trump people, Rahm Emanuel's people, what's her name, or the vice president who just ran him, Kamala Harris's people, Josh Shapiro's people, they're gonna come at him just as hard. Or already are. So pretending like it's just the Trump crowd that wants to lay him out. I know enough about. I've read enough books about people who run for president. You gotta get through your own party first. And that's where the fights are usually the nastiest.

[Michael]

Right.

[Jack Armstrong]

So. But that is an interesting one. I don't know if I believe it. I think some people legit don't run for office because of what it would do for their family. I think he's. He's wondering, what do they have? What do they not have? What do they know? What do they not know? And if it crosses a certain line, if it would be painful enough for him, he might. He's not gonna run. But I, I don't think it's. Each kid gets a veto. And if one kid says, I don't want you to, dad, I've got baseball season. I don't think that's. I honestly. How are you? Gavin would say, I'm not willing to be that mean, but, okay, that was mean. I retract.

[Michael]

I really do.

[Jack Armstrong]

I don't think he's going to let that be the primary decision.

[Michael]

Yeah, I would agree. And, you know, the lawlessness will be hung around his neck. California led the way in locking up even $4 products. You just can't buy things at stores because there's so much crime, and that's going to be impossible to get through. But back to your point about the primary process, this sort of thing will come up, and I'll end with this thought. Mr. Newsom's original sponsor and mentor, California's legendary Willie Brown, told Politico that Mr. Newsom is formidable because he's, quote, a movie star. Politico then asked, quote, is it clear what Newsom actually believes? Brown answered, quote, I don't know. I've never asked him for fear. He doesn't. For fear he doesn't know.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, wow.

[Michael]

And then this Mr. Kachigian, who wrote this article said Mr. Ronald Reagan was an actual movie star, but he knew what he believed.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow. Can you run on? You might be able to actually. Can you run on? Only I oppose Trump. Trump is awful.

[Michael]

Thinks he can.

[Jack Armstrong]

I. I think it'd be harder for him to get the nomination than to become president. But I could be wrong. I just think they're good. The other Democrats are just going to kill him.

[Michael]

Rahm Emanuel is going to subject him to such a beating, they're going to Step in and stop the fight. It's going to be like when that transgender fellow started punching the poor women in the Olympics. It's, everybody's going to react with outrage. Stop rom.

[Jack Armstrong]

Stop the last Jake Paul fight. Be like that.

[Michael]

Exactly.

[Jack Armstrong]

I think it's interesting that Mark Halpern's still going with the I don't even think he's going to run angle.

[Michael]

I, I, yeah, it's possible. I mean, for the love of God, it is March of 2026 as we speak these words. I think his missteps and, and, and mediocrity will just accumulate and accumulate to the point that. No, the donors say no, thank you.

[Jack Armstrong]

I think it, it'd be a pretty big void though, if he decided, if he announced he's not running. It's all of a sudden really wide open then.

[Michael]

Yeah, but as I was pointing out by the data, it, you know, could happen over the course of the next year, year and a half, and other, other folks will step to the fore.

[Jack Armstrong]

People will start announcing here in eight months, nine months, which is a long time, no doubt about that. I think I had one more thing I was going to say about this. I remember what it was. Gavin is running for prison. Oh, I always remember clear back to 2004. Al Gore came within like a, you know, couple of votes of being President of the United States, then announced in 2004, everybody assumed he was gonna run again, that he'd be the walkaway nominee, and then just announced, I'm not running. So you never know what people have got going on in their lives.

[Michael]

And then he intended this climate scam going. You can't believe how much money I'm making, right?

[Jack Armstrong]

Which might have been part of it. Okay, we got more on the way. Stay here.

[Michael]

Armstrong and Gettysburg.

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[Jack Armstrong]

Ply Uncovered Repairs so the key to this here topical news joke from Jimmy Fallon. Here is the crowd reaction. Here we go. President Trump fired Kristi Noem. I. I'll repeat it just in case

[Michael]

you didn't hear me.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow.

[Mark Halpern]

Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

Kristi Noem is out.

[Michael]

In response, Gnome said if my face

[Jack Armstrong]

could move, it would look really sad right now. That was quite the crowd reaction to that news.

[Michael]

Well, she has no constituency left.

[Jack Armstrong]

How much of that is. I don't like the way immigrants are being treated and how much of that is just a blow against the Trump crowd? I think it's mostly the latter.

[Michael]

I disagree. I think the, I think the, the craziness of Minneapolis turns so many people against DHS and ice.

[Jack Armstrong]

I was just looking at the ad,

[Michael]

but she's got no Republican support either. She has just no supporters.

[Jack Armstrong]

I'm trying to, I've been trying to figure out this for a long time. If this is just flat misogynist to comment on her. Really, really cares a lot about looking sexy as a government official. That just seems weird to me. Is that wrong in misogynist? I mean, Pete Exith, good looking guy, you know, he makes sure his hair looks cool and he wears really tight T shirts a lot to show off the how, you know, how Buffy is all the time. Is that exactly the same thing? But man, her with her shiny lips and the way her hair is in a. At work is just, it's most people, most women aren't like that at work.

[Michael]

Yeah, I don't think it's misogynism, that word you used. Exactly. But you got to be careful there. There's a bigger gulf between a woman who looks very good and businesslike and somebody who's glammed up where dudes, it's. There's really not a lot of difference. If I dress to impress a woman, I look like I'm running for president.

[Jack Armstrong]

True, that's true. But I just saw the ads of her, the $200 million ad buy that a lot of went to friends of hers, maybe rightly, may wrongly, that she blamed on Trump. And that's the real reason I think that she got fired because when she was questioned the other day, did Trump know about this? Oh, absolutely. Trump apparently did not know about that and thought, don't you freaking hang me out on this. No way. That's when that was a no, you're done. But I saw the ads of her on the horse and the cowboy hat and they're looking like you look like you're running for Miss America. I mean, there's just no getting around it. You, your super tight jeans and shirt. You look like you're running for Miss America or trying to be an influencer or something. I mean, I guess specifically you are trying to influence people who are your policies about the border. But I don't know. Weird look for. For somebody that got a very serious job and she's out now, so that's that. Harry Styles has a new album out, which I'm kind of excited about because I'm a Harry Styles fan. The name of it is Funny Kiss all the Time Disco. Occasionally.

[Michael]

That's a funny name for an album.

[Jack Armstrong]

Kind of like his music. But since I brought up celebrity stuff, a friend of mine, we were talking yesterday about people who all were out of time. Damn it ran out of time before I got to the punchline.

[Michael]

That's painful.

[Jack Armstrong]

We were talking yesterday about people who refer to the news and it's like TMZ or Entertainment Tonight or whatever like that. That's what they call the news. I'll get to that a little bit later.

[Michael]

Jack wants to talk about Harry Styles. I want to talk about assisted suicide in Canada. Something for everyone coming up. Hope you can stay tuned.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh my God.

[Michael]

Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

If you missed a segment, get the podcast Armstrong and Getty on demand.

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Armstrong and Getty.

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[Ryan Reynolds]

There's drama and then there's full telenovela level drama.

[Elf Cosmetics Announcer]

Yes, and Elf Cosmetics went all the way there. E L F Cosmetics just dropped something wildly unexpected. A full blown absurdly funny telenovela celebrating positivity, inclusivity and accessibility. It's called Melissa and it's absurd in the best way. It stars Melissa McCarthy, TV doctor Nicholas Gonzalez and iconic telenovela villain Itati Cantoral. But the real star, Elf Glow Reviver Lip Oil.

[Ryan Reynolds]

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Elf Glow Reviver Lip Oil. Reviver Lip Oil is an ultra glossy lip oil that nourishes, hydrates and enhances your lips natural color. Available in 10 shades at only $9 each.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Watch the full episode of their new E L f novella on soyumbano.com yes.

[Elf Cosmetics Announcer]

And drench your lips in an addictive sheer watch of ultra glossy color with E L F Glow Reviver Lip Oil

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when your schedule sounds like this.

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An oil change is the last thing you have time for. So drive into Take five and let our techs change your oil. Check your tires, top off your fluids and have you back on the road pit stop fast all while you stay in your car. No putting your entire schedule on hold. No upsells, no problem. So you can get back to your to do list or not. Find your nearest [e-mail] Take 5 the stay in your car 10 minute oil

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change support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis crisis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures tired

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[Take 5 Oil Change Announcer]

We have a Fox News poll and it reveals a record 38% of voters think the US shifting toward socialism would be a good thing. It comes as voters are split on

[Weatherbug Announcer]

whether capitalism is working amid the affordability crisis.

[Jack Armstrong]

That's nice. And here they break it down a little bit.

[Weatherbug Announcer]

It says the ones that are backing

[Take 5 Oil Change Announcer]

socialism moving more towards socialism.

[Weatherbug Announcer]

The very liberal voters at 66%. Democrats under the age of 45, 66%

[Take 5 Oil Change Announcer]

and voters under the age of 30 at 53%. The biggest supporter Griff of capitalism.

[Weatherbug Announcer]

Republican men 87%.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. And if you go deeper into it, the number of men over 45, 75% say socialism is a bad thing. So middle aged men in America are going to save the country. You're welcome for that. So worth noting that. And it's not that I'm not worried that way too many people favor socialism. Two thirds of Democrats under 45 prefer socialism or leaning socialism. But it is true that so many people now call themselves independent that if you use the number for Republicans or Democrats, both sides can use it to paint the other side as extreme. Because all the. A lot of the normal people in both parties have now called themselves independents because hardly anybody wants to be attached to either party at this point. So you can, you can use a poll about Republicans or Democrats and say look at how crazy they are. But you're really only talking about a small. A lot of the Republicans don't call themselves Republicans anymore. Same with Democrats.

[Michael]

Interesting. I'm not sure this is a great example of that on the Republican side just because to me anybody who's against free markets is a lunatic. But I see your point. It's worth keeping in mind.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. I don't doubt that 2/3 of Democrats under 45 favor socialism. I just think there's an awful lot of Democrats under 45 that don't call themselves Democrats Democrats anymore.

[Michael]

Right.

[Jack Armstrong]

Probably vote Democrat a lot. But they don't call themselves Democrats because they don't want to be attached to all the trans lunacy or Kamala Harris

[Michael]

or a whole bunch of other stuff or the racism. Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

Do you.

[Michael]

Have you seen rough numbers lately? Who identifies as Republican, Independent, Democrat?

[Jack Armstrong]

Well, it's a. I remember we had the number wasn't long ago. The smallest number of people calling themselves Democrats ever was on that. Yeah. So it's. It's like a third of the whole country is. Is and most people aren't. You're either a Republican Democrat. You just don't want to be attached to that party.

[Michael]

Right.

[Jack Armstrong]

Definitely lean one direction or the other in the way you vote.

[Michael]

Yeah. The enduring con job that is Pushing socialism. The fact that that can't be killed. It's. It's like a cockroach is. Is amazing to me. It is the most successful scam ever designed.

[Jack Armstrong]

Well, it doesn't take much explanation to educate somebody to why it doesn't work, but they ain't doing that in school. They're doing it my son's private school, but they aren't doing it in regular school. Nobody's taking the time to say, here's why socialism has failed everywhere it's ever worked. Do the whole grade thing. That would be popular in class. How about if I did this? How about if I took all the A's and spread them out and we all got B minuses? Those of you who get A's, you'd be happy with that.

[Michael]

The people who get great grades would stop working hard. The people who get poor grades would definitely never work hard.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right.

[Michael]

What does that do to the economy of grades?

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, that's.

[Michael]

I mean, that's lesson done, conversion completed.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right, Right. And it would take you roughly 10 minutes, if that long. That's with a. That's with a break for going to get a drink or peeing in your Folgers coffee can or whatever it is you do. If you don't know that story. Oh, boy, you should Google it. It's troubling.

[Michael]

Oh, you know, I'm really not in the mood on a Friday to talk about the assisted suicide in Canada. I will tell you though, it reminds me at least somewhat of the socialism argument in that the unintended consequences of what sounds like a reasonable idea just they cascade and they grow. And the. It sounds great in theory, but if you know anything about how rotten human beings can be, it just quickly becomes far, far uglier than you thought it could. And again, the fact that you have to re. Argue that in terms of socialism is probably just because it's being taught as a wonderful thing in our schools by a bunch of neo Marxist teachers and teachers unions. And I despise them to my boy.

[Jack Armstrong]

So it did come up a couple times this week, people who call Entertainment Tonight the news, right? Or TMZ the news, which I think fits in a little with the Iran war in that most people I was listening to podcast the other day and a whole bunch of pundits are on there and they're saying the number one question they got from people about the Iran war was why did this happen? Because nobody was paying any attention to the fact that we are building up all this military might and warning them about the nuclear sub. And nobody's paying attention to that. I don't know if they're watching entertainment news or sports or whatever, but very few people were paying attention. And the president certainly did not go out of his way to alert us. Anywho, got this text from a friend of mine. Joe was telling a story about his. Somebody who cut your hair? That referred to that. All she talked about was celebrity stories.

[Michael]

Oh, she's a physical therapist.

[Jack Armstrong]

Physical therapist. That's what it was. Yeah. Yeah.

[Michael]

That was her only passion. And she had a really good butt. She. She was a very fit young woman. Yes, Michael.

[Jack Armstrong]

But her passion was celebrity news.

[Michael]

Yes.

[Jack Armstrong]

Which I started watching Don't look up with my 14 year old, the movie. And one of the features of that is the character played by Leonardo DiCaprio. He's a scientist who just discovered a comet is going to hit Earth and destroy all life. And he can't get anybody care or pay attention in the modern world. And he's getting ready to go on like the Today show. And they end up interviewing a young pop star played by Ariana Grande, which made it kind of funny. Who all they want to talk about is her celebrity breakup. We saw on Twitter that you and a different pop star broke up and the crowd. Oh, and then talk about the breakup of the celebrities. And he's like, why is nobody interested that a comet is going to destroy Earth?

[Public Investing Announcer]

Right.

[Jack Armstrong]

But that is pretty accurate as to where we are. And we got this text. Joe story made me laugh. I worked with a nurse who was gorgeous and she would routinely come in and say the craziest stuff. Did you watch the news last night? Always referring to Entertainment Tonight. She always complained that buying groceries for her kids was such a waste. They just ate it and it was gone. But if she bought designer jeans or the latest makeup, it really lasted. To give you an idea of the intelligence of the sort of person that follows celebrity news versus real news.

[Michael]

Wow, that's a good one.

[Jack Armstrong]

Buying food for the kids is such a waste. They just eat it and it's gone. But if I buy these jeans, I have them for a long time.

[Michael]

It's a good point.

[Jack Armstrong]

She and her husband picked all their kids names from soap operas.

[Michael]

Wow.

[Take 5 Oil Change Announcer]

Wow.

[Michael]

Oh my God. I feel like I'm at the human zoo watching a display on Look. Look how they live, honey.

[Jack Armstrong]

So that's a poll I would like to what percentage of people the news is Britney Spears dui as opposed to we've sent another aircraft carrier to the

[Michael]

Middle east so you couldn't you know, force this by law, because the First Amendment. But I wish the polling organizations would somehow, like, grade everybody on level of awareness, and there's no need to be demeaning.

[Jack Armstrong]

You know, wouldn't call the bottom morons.

[Michael]

All right, let's call the bottom group morons.

[Jack Armstrong]

I was.

[Michael]

That was. That was an easy sell. And then the dimly aware, the paying attention, the acutely aware, and then maybe the expert class. And you'd eliminate the expert class, probably. And the. The morons from your polling or.

[Jack Armstrong]

I don't know.

[Michael]

But the idea of polling a bunch of people who say, why are we attacking Iran? About attacking Iran is the definition of uselessness, except, I guess, in terms of retail politics, because ignoramuses can vote, too. A practice I will stamp out when I am emperor.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, I heard this number the other day, and I'd never heard it before. I've been meaning to verify it. It came from a very credible source that only 29% of people follow politics real news, and only 14%. So roughly half of them follow it closely. So following closely enough to really understand what's going on is 14%. That sounds about right to me. I mean, since in most elections prior to Trump, only about a half of people voted even in a presidential election, that other half is just. Man, I. I have. I have, in recent months, met more people that have decided that either maybe they've always been checked out or said, yeah, I just gave up. I checked out. I just. I don't even pay attention anymore. You know, part of it is, as our old producer Sean used to say, every story comes as a homework assignment. Everything you hear, you have to. Okay, I guess I better try to figure out if this is completely true, completely false, or, you know, some portion of that.

[Michael]

Right?

[Jack Armstrong]

Everything you hear, and it's tiring, it's exhausting. At some point, I could see how you decide that I just won't pay attention.

[Michael]

Plus the fever pitch, plus the incredible size and complexity of the government, at this point, it's. It's too much to ask.

[Jack Armstrong]

And that was.

[Michael]

We need. We need an informed citizenry that would take four lifetimes.

[Jack Armstrong]

I've heard different versions of this, too. One person recently decided a couple of different business things, divorce things, whatever had happened, and they just thought the injustice of the way it turned out was awful, that there's no consequences for anything. So I'm just not paying attention anymore. Nobody gets any consequences. People, you can rob people blind, you can commit crimes and get out. Over and over again. I just give up. So there's that crowd. And then I know a guy many, many years ago, he was a little older, but he had been in Vietnam and he felt he had been so lied to by his government that he just completely checked out for the rest of his life on all politics. Seemed pretty happy.

[Michael]

I can't fault him for that.

[Jack Armstrong]

He seemed pretty damned happy with that decision. Now, obviously you can't run a democracy with people with everybody doing that.

[Michael]

No, no, it's a problem. It's a serious problem. I'm somewhat reminded of some Van Jones clips we have talking about the Iran conflict and the way people are behaving politically. And he looks at both sides. It's pretty compelling. We'll squeeze that in if we can.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, quick question because I just looked up the TV and saw it. The the Paralympics are underway. The Paralympics? That's people who are handicapable. It's also in Italy though, the Winter Paralympics. China is dominating the Winter Paralympics. Do you have any idea why? That would be a guess? I don't.

[Michael]

The cold warrior in me wants to take a shot at China, but just to sheer population, I'm guessing just plain people.

[Jack Armstrong]

But they have more people for the regular Olympics too, and they didn't dominate.

[Michael]

Maybe because they've crippled so many dissidents by beating them and torturing them. Then they put them on skis out of there. I couldn't help myself.

[Jack Armstrong]

They could not. Then they put them on skis is what he said. Okay, more on the way. Stay here.

[Michael]

Armstrong and Getty.

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[Ryan Reynolds]

There's drama and then there's full telenovela level drama.

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[Ryan Reynolds]

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[Elf Cosmetics Announcer]

Elf Glow Reviver Lip Oil Reviver Lip Oil is an ultra glossy lip oil that nourishes, hydrates, enhances your lips natural color. Available in 10 shades at only $9 each.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Watch the full episode of their new E L f novella on soyumbano.com yes

[Elf Cosmetics Announcer]

and drench your lips in an addictive sheer watch of ultra glossy color with E L F Glow Reviver Lip Oil.

[Take 5 Oil Change Announcer]

When your schedule sounds like this,

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Are you kidding me?

[Take 5 Oil Change Announcer]

An oil change is the last thing you have time for. So drive into Take five and let our techs change your oil. Check your tires, top off your fluids and have you back on the road pit stop fast. All while you stay in your car. No putting your entire schedule on hold. No upsells, no problem. So you can get back to your to do list or not. Find your nearest [e-mail] Take 5 the stay in your car 10 minute oil

[Public Investing Announcer]

change support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your purchase portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available at public.com disclosures tired

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[Jack Armstrong]

My oldest son turns 16 tomorrow and it is more shocking to me than I can possibly tell you.

[Michael]

Yeah, I know what you mean.

[Jack Armstrong]

Why does that happen? Just happens, I guess.

[Michael]

Time's just a concept, man. Except it's not and it keeps moving. So have you heard about these, these prediction markets? Your like your poly market and your calci. Isn't that a cereal? Is that cashy? I don't know. What's a, what's a betting site, what's a cereal, and what's a tea drink for hipsters these days? I put a thousand dollar bet on Macha the other day saying that the US would end its bombing campaign. Anyway, a bunch of headlines about those prediction markets. We mentioned very briefly the other day that somebody had made a bet related to the death of the Ayatollah. And Kalshee is refusing to pay out winnings on a $54 million trade. Many betters had assumed they won big wagers that he would be out as Supreme Leader by Saturday. But calcium American prediction market that allows users to bet on politics, sports, foreign affairs and pop culture and all sorts of stuff announced it would not be paying out any winnings on those wagers since its guidelines prohibit markets, quote, directly tied to death. Their users are outraged by this. You know, I gotta get into this, but I haven't because I mean, I obviously follow the news like a maniac and that puts you at a real advantage.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, I said first against the idea of you can't bet on anything where death's involved. But I can see you don't want. I mean, if you got pitchers out there throwing the pitch straight into the ground to make sure they want to bet. You don't want anybody amping up death to win a bet.

[Michael]

Sure. Is there somebody who would murder somebody else for a million dollars? Yes. Yeah, it's probably two people out of every 10.

[Jack Armstrong]

You have a dark view of humanity.

[Michael]

Oh, don't get me started.

[Jack Armstrong]

So.

[Michael]

But I really ought to get into it, it's partly laziness. Well, I'm busy. This job is time consum to me. And maybe I just, I'm not desperate for money. I don't know. But it's clearly something I ought to be doing. I spend an hour a week on it.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right. I know more about this than, you know who's going to win a football game. Sure.

[Michael]

Handicapping candidates and issues and bills and whatever. Anyway, moving along, there's a big article in the Wall Street Journal today about the, these markets and it's this. And let's see, what does this start with? Yeah, yeah, okay. The mentions market tries to predict the unpredictable Trump's next words. So you can even predict whether Trump will use the word, for instance, hottest in his address to the nation. Hunkered down in a dark room, Max Caroza watched riveted as President Trump gave a speech on the US Economy. Hottest. Hottest.

[Mark Halpern]

Come on.

[Michael]

He pleaded to his screen. Then it came. We have the hottest country in the world, the President declared.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yes. Let's go.

[Michael]

Carrasso whooped, pumping his fist. The 20 year old big box store manager in Westchester, Pennsylvania had just made $64 by correctly betting that Trump would say hottest.

[Jack Armstrong]

I think I would have made that bet.

[Michael]

Yeah, but so that's how mundane it can be.

[Jack Armstrong]

That's practically like, you know, how long the national anthem is for the super bowl in terms of, of mundane.

[Michael]

Right. But here's another interesting angle to it, and this especially applies to government officials. There are various people who made a crapload of money on when the US Bombing campaign would start, even though it was secret.

[Jack Armstrong]

I would have been wrong on that one.

[Michael]

Well, yeah, but quite a few people were very, very right to the point that it's like you're familiar with Pentagon Planet, you're close to the President.

[Jack Armstrong]

Well, it's the same way they've caught these sports stars. You see a whole bunch of, you see that they placed bets or had a bunch of activity betting various sites at the same time that they all of a sudden pulled up lame in the second quarter.

[Michael]

Right. So this other article in the Journal from like Today, I think is about a couple of things, including the fact that these markets are marketing themselves like crazy on college campuses. They are spending zillions of dollars to market themselves to college kids who think they're smart and have a little disposable income and all. And they, they mentioned that this fraternity at the University of Miami that attracts the children of the very wealthy, including the stepson of Jeff Bezos, they were making predictions as to what celebrities would show up at the super bowl and the odds of Bezos attending were high. A potential jackpot for anyone who actually knew his weekend plans, which did not involve a trip to Levi's Stadium. And some fraternity brothers began placing bets that Bezos would not attend. Two people who bet said the original source of the information was the stepson himself, although neither heard it directly. Blah blah blah. So it's about a these these companies are like paying enormous amounts of money for a fraternity to have a giant blowout party in return for if you sign 50 of your members as New Cali or Poly Market members. But then they go into the sup suspected insiders who made $1.2 million wagering that the US would strike Iran last month. So this whole deal is getting murky and mobbed up, man.

[Jack Armstrong]

I gotta jump on these sites and see if there's any categories that I feel like I'm particularly knowledgeable about while it still lasts.

[Michael]

I mean, I should have liked sold Gavin Newsom short a couple of weeks ago before his embarrassing book tour. I knew it was coming.

[Jack Armstrong]

You were big on Joe Biden would not be the nominee for a very long time.

[Michael]

Oh, I could have made a mint. Yeah, just not greedy enough. That's one of my faults. I'll try to get greedy.

[Jack Armstrong]

One of your faults is you're not greedy enough.

[Michael]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's a weakness.

[Jack Armstrong]

It's an interesting fault.

[Michael]

So we rather read a book.

[Jack Armstrong]

We do 20 hours of this every week. If you ever miss an hour or a segment, get the podcast Armstrong and Getty on on Demand. We got another hour to go. Armstrong and Getty.

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[Jack Armstrong]

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