Jack Armstrong (2:34)

Studio at the George Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty.

Ryan Seacrest (2:40)

Armstrong and Getty. And now here's Armstrong and Getty. And they aren't going to stop being transgender just because you strip them from.

Jack Armstrong (2:57)

Sports or from housing or from their health care or any other public place.

Ryan Seacrest (3:02)

That you don't want us to be.

Jack Armstrong (3:04)

And so members, make no mistake that.

Ryan Seacrest (3:06)

This is just another version of state sanctioned bullying and genocide. And I don't say that lightly.

Jack Armstrong (3:13)

Lightly.

Joe Getty (3:13)

You don't say it lightly. That's a crazy Democrat representative in Minnesota, which is not surprising because that's one of your crazier left states.

Ryan Seacrest (3:23)

Oh, yeah.

Joe Getty (3:23)

Banning dudes from participating in girls sports is a genocide. And I don't say that lightly.

Ryan Seacrest (3:31)

There was so much crazy in that clip, we could spend the rest of the show teasing it or parsing it. The whole play. The beginning again, Michael. Just the first half or so. And they aren't going to stop being transgender just because you strip them from sports or from housing or from their health. Stop there. All right, all right. Wow. They're not going to stop being transgender. Nobody is talking about that. I would like to see people get mental health care and address the real problems in their lives. So they didn't indulge in the fantasy that they're transgender, but nobody's talking about that. They're not going to stop being transgender if you keep them out of sports. Again, not the goal. If you take away their housing. Wait a minute. Oh, my God. Can you. Can you utter one single phrase that's not completely psychotic?

Joe Getty (4:20)

Who's taking away transgender housing?

Ryan Seacrest (4:22)

Yeah. What the hell? It's so good that at least in a lot of ways, that point of view is on the back foot. But not in academia, friends, and not in a lot of government.

Joe Getty (4:34)

Well, and this was a blow. So there was a bill in the Senate to bar transgender women and girls nationwide from.

Ryan Seacrest (4:44)

Those are dudes. Dudes. Dudes is the term reading the bill.

Joe Getty (4:48)

From participating in school athletic competitions designated for female athletes. It failed to advance in the Senate as Democrats stood united. And it's one of those deals where you need 60 votes. I don't understand the Senate and which times you need 50 votes and which times you need 60 votes. But this is one of those where you need 60 votes and there aren't enough Republicans. And they were hoping that they could get, you know, a half dozen Democrats to join on what 85% of Americans agree on I do not understand why.

Ryan Seacrest (5:19)

It'S like an 85 to 6 issue.

Joe Getty (5:22)

It's not controversial. It's not a controversial issue. Why aren't there enough Democrats where you're Democratic senator from, you know, some moderate state where you can come out and say, yeah, I don't think boys should be played in girls sports? Anyway, it was 5,145 Republicans over Democrats, but didn't get to 60. So now the Republicans have some different, slightly differently worded bill they're trying to get through the House, then they'll come back to the Senate, but. So the battle's not over. But that's just shocking. Of course. This is the thing I always like about politics. It's so dang maddening that we play this game all the time and both sides do it. But so the Democrats reasoning on this, we shouldn't have national rules for schools.

Ryan Seacrest (6:11)

Oh my God. Now all of a.

Joe Getty (6:13)

Now all of a sudden you don't like the federal government getting involved in schools when we're trying to get rid of the Department of Education, for instance, you're horrified that you don't have federal control over the schools. But this is the way politics works.

Ryan Seacrest (6:28)

So three quick points and you can take bets out there whether I can remember all three of my points by the time I'm at the third. So rarity number one, just the rule of thumb. It takes 60 votes in the Senate, except when it doesn't. So just memorize that and you'll be fine. Thanks. Secondly, the recent first appeals court, first circuit appeals court ruling that you're not violating parents rights by transitioning their child at school and not telling them. I really want to dig into that decision. I have the decision in front of me. It's going to be a longish segment. Maybe we can do it. Hour four. Some folks don't get our four. You can grab it via podcast Armstrong and get it on demand. Jack and I will talk about it behind the scenes, but it's really, really interesting. And one of the points I was going to make in analyzing the case is what I want to make right now. Republicans stop adopting the language of the progressive lunatics. Say in the bill there will be no boys or men allowed in sports.

Joe Getty (7:40)

That's a good idea for a variety of reasons because that would force a court at some point to define that, wouldn't it?

Ryan Seacrest (7:49)

Well, right, Exactly. That's what I'm driving at. Because you have allowed the progressive left to smear the line between sex and what they call gender and then claim that Women and men are just terms of gender, and your gender is totally up to you. Therefore, any sex specific laws are terrible and oppressive because people can change their sex gender all the time. And you're letting them play that game by not simply saying, no men, men and boys in women's and girls sports. And then, as Jack, you indicated, at some point somebody's gonna have to say, whoa, whoa, whoa is a biological male, which is a term I do not use because that's the only kind of male that exists. Tacking biological onto it also implies that there are many different sorts of males. So you've given them the argument anyway. Yeah, you'll make the court decide. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. We gotta differentiate between this whole whatever the hell a gender means and sex because we're here talking about the sex of the person.

Joe Getty (8:52)

That would be something, though, if a court. And then this could go clear up to the Supreme Court where the, the whole question is, what's the definition of male and female? Finally get to that. That'd be something, right?

Ryan Seacrest (9:03)

Yeah, yeah. On that topic, I don't know you. I don't get tired of this. More revelations coming out as the Doge guys and others paw through the. The. Just the stack of, you know, accounting books as high as the Empire State Building that shows everything that's been spent by the federal government. Public theater in New York City received more than half a million dollars in federal funds from fema, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to promote anti racist and queer shows.

Joe Getty (9:38)

How do you like that? Those of you in North Carolina who are still living in tents after the flooding there and all the problems with getting the FEMA money, they spent half a million dollars on anti racist and queer shows. New York City theater. Wow.

Ryan Seacrest (9:58)

Right. And it was all under the umbrella of the COVID Emergency. And it's right there in the name FEMA emergency. And so they were furnishing dollars to keep these theaters afloat. Maybe you thought that was good in general, maybe you didn't. But FEMA money spent on transgendery queer up with whatever shows.

Joe Getty (10:19)

I see she got a queer theater. I'm sure it wasn't sustainable financially in any circumstance, but during COVID they could claim we're going to go out of business. So they got emergency funding from the taxpayer. Fantastic.

Ryan Seacrest (10:32)

Yeah. Oh, that reminds me, I've got to get into that California slush fund story, but. And it's funny, I think this is as true as anything can be. Yet I hesitated to bring it up, but it's a piece by Scott Atlas, America still needs a Covid reckoning. Why does nobody want to talk about the most tragic breakdown of leadership and ethics in our lifetimes? I remember early in the COVID thing you brought us, Jack, the perspective that after the great plague of the 1918 flu or whatever it was called, nobody wanted to talk about it afterward. They just want to move on because it was so damn depressing and sad and disappointing.

Joe Getty (11:12)

Seems to be a human nature thing.

Ryan Seacrest (11:14)

Yeah. And so Scott Atlas is talking about, and you may remember him as one of the great dissenters during the COVID thing, but he was at a conference that focuses on the West's failure to cultivate its traditional values, which provided the world with history's most successful societies, essentially defending the principles of Western civilization. And I asked the audience why, at this moment in history, Scott writes, are we asking how institutions should be reformed or if they even can be? For decades we have been aware that institutions were failing. Incompetent, wasteful and corrupt governments, biased and dishonest journalism, agenda driven schools and universities. So why now? My answer is Covid. The mismanagement of the pandemic hit us personally and exposed a massive across the board institutional failure. It was the most tragic breakdown of leadership and ethics that free societies have seen in our lifetimes. Yet oddly, the topic remained almost invisible at the week long conference, unmentioned by dozens of speakers. It was the elephant in the room. Just as lockdowns and mandates are missing from almost all of America's discussion of post election plans. And then, you know, there's what time is it? Yeah, we got time for this. This is so good. To understand why the pandemic finally forced us to address institutional failure, we must acknowledge the facts. And Jack, this will warm your heart because we've been howling this for years. The virus didn't cause lockdowns. Human beings decided to impose lockdowns which failed to stop the deaths and the spread. Lockdowns inflicted massive damage on children and literally killed people. A review of 34 countries with available data found that through July of 23, the US alone would have had 1.6 million fewer deaths if it had the performance of Sweden. Wow. And he goes on to some more statistics to back up that, that statement. But more than massive incompetence by our bureaucrats, more than a lack of critical thinking, we saw a failure of society's moral and ethical compass, so, so pervasive that we have lost trust in most institutions and leaders. Trust that is essential to the function of any free and diverse society, especially in the US where the declarative Declaration of Independence proclaims, endowed by our Creator, et cetera, et cetera. It's stunning that fell so quickly and thoroughly by government decree and with public ascent. And there's a lot more. We've been hammering this point so long. Part of me hesitates to, you know, hammer it again, but.

Joe Getty (13:52)

It'S destined for the history books, man. Yeah, A quick message about Prize Picks. You want to turn your basketball opinions into cash? You need to know this. You see Kyrie Irving of the Dallas Mavericks out for the they went to the Finals last year. He's their big star left since Luca got traded to the Lakers. Lucas gotta be thinking, thank God I dodged a bullet there as the Lakers are now in first place and he's playing for him Anyway, you should download the Prize Picks app if you want to get involved in your your opinions turning into money on that. Sign up today and get $50 instantly when you play.

Ryan Seacrest (14:24)

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Ryan Seacrest (14:28)

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Joe Getty (15:35)

Yeah, I get so frustrated if I start thinking about that. I can't hardly handle it. So you know, that might be one of the reasons people don't want to engage. So we're in a trade war with Mexico and Canada. China also, but different topic. And Trudeau had just is giving a big speech right now and taking questions with his highlighted hair and his very tight suit. Some of the things he said kind of interesting. Among other things. I hope you purchased all the hockey pucks you need yesterday because they're expensive today. More on the way. Stay tuned.

Jack Armstrong (16:08)

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Jack Armstrong (19:14)

Months or even a year.

Ryan Seacrest (19:16)

The last one of you to leave your circle wins that $500,000. Goals are simple. If at any point you cross the.

Jack Armstrong (19:23)

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Ryan Seacrest (19:25)

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Joe Getty (19:30)

Oh. Oh my God.

Ryan Seacrest (19:32)

Oh my God. Oh my God. Oh my God. G1. Oh my God. J1. You won. Hug your dad. Hug your dad. Your son just won half a million dollars.

Joe Getty (19:45)

That's Mr. Beast, who's the biggest thing in the world in entertainment, whether you know who he is or not. And one of the many contests that he has where he just. You're just standing in a circle and whoever can stand in the circle the longest, hunger, needing to go to the bathroom, whatever your issues are, whoever can stay in the circle the longest wins a half a million dollars in this 11 year old kid one. And the way Mr. Beast does it too, unlike other contests, he pays your taxes and stuff. So you actually get the half a million dollars. Like if you, if you win a car on most, you know you want a car and the price is right, you immediately find out, well, I gotta sell the car because I owe, you know, this two hundred thousand dollar car. I owe a hundred thousand dollars in taxes. I don't have it if I want to keep the car. So I got to sell the car. I mean I was selling it slightly used. So I'm then and I couldn't even if I could keep the car. I can't afford the car insurance. He pays the car. If you get a car for Mr. Beast, he pays the car insurance and the taxes and all that sort of stuff. So you actually get to keep the prize. Which is one of the reasons he's so successful with his 8 quintillion YouTube followers and all that sort of stuff, but.

Ryan Seacrest (20:48)

So how long was the kid in the circle? I don't know.

Joe Getty (20:50)

I'd like to know that. I've watched a bunch of these my kids, before his. Before his. Number two is Ed McMahon or whatever you want to call him, turned trans. My kids used to watch Mr. Beast all the time and we watch a lot of these contests and they're very entertaining as he edits them down and everything like that. I don't know. Well, I'll look into that. How long did he have to stand in the circle to win a half million dollars? What's an 11 year old gonna do with a half a million dollars? Lots and lots of gummy bears, I'm guessing. Um, I hope they're American and not from Canada or he'll have to pay too much of them with the trade war going on. So Justin Trudeau is giving a press conference right now. He said Trump is a very smart guy, but this is a dumb thing to do. At Midnight last night, 25% tariffs went into effect on Canada and Mexico. The President of Mexico has vowed retaliation and she is going to announce on Sunday in that big central square. What do they call them in Mexico? Zocalo. Zocolo. I've never known how to pronounce it. In the historic old city, which if you've never been there, is very, very cool. She's going to have a big rally there on Sunday and announce all the things that Mexico is going to put a tariff on on American goods to try to retaliate.

Ryan Seacrest (22:09)

Hold on.

Joe Getty (22:09)

Here come.

Ryan Seacrest (22:11)

So Domingo in the Zaccolo, I will mark it on my calendar.

Joe Getty (22:16)

Is Domingo means Sunday?

Ryan Seacrest (22:19)

Yes, and it's unfortunate because I have a sabado gigante planned, a giant Saturday night.

Joe Getty (22:29)

Oh, my God. I'm already a little El gordo. So if it's all on a food I shouldn't eat, that's fine with me. Anyway, back to Canada, where they speak English. Trudeau said Trump is a smart guy, but this is a dumb thing to do. He said to Americans, your government has done this to you. He's put your US jobs at risk and has chosen to harm US national security. So that's the message from pretty boy.

Ryan Seacrest (22:53)

Justin Trudeau, who certainly has agreement at the Wall Street Journal editorial board. They're really, really concerned this is gonna backfire back badly.

Joe Getty (23:04)

Something to watch.

Ryan Seacrest (23:05)

We'll all find out together.

Joe Getty (23:08)

I wonder which of the many diseases floating around the United States I have. I wish there was a test for that sort of thing. A lot of these things you can't really test for, right?

Ryan Seacrest (23:17)

Yeah. They'd have to design it specifically at the cost of many, many dollars.

Joe Getty (23:20)

Yeah.

Ryan Seacrest (23:20)

And even more thanks to Trump's tariffs. Or not. I don't know.

Joe Getty (23:25)

Zelinsky put out a new statement about Ukraine in the United States. Maybe we retouch on that story at some point.

Ryan Seacrest (23:31)

It is a major statement. Yeah. We can hit that next hour or our next segment. And a little more on how the tariffs are likely to affect your pocketbook. Here's a hint. Significantly.

Joe Getty (23:41)

Yeah, I think everybody wonders.

Jack Armstrong (23:43)

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Joe Getty (23:47)

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Joe Getty (26:17)

What do you need to see from President Zelensky?

Ryan Seacrest (26:19)

Look, I think the most important thing. A lot of people have made this about public statements. President Zelensky needs to say that he's committed to the peace or President Zelensky needs to apologize to the President. The public stuff doesn't matter nearly as much as what are the Ukrainians doing to meaningfully engage on what a peaceful settlement would look like. We need the Ukrainians privately to come to us and say, this is what we need. This is what we want. This is how we're going to participate in the process to end this conflict. That is the most important thing. And that lack of private engagement is what is most concerning to us.

Joe Getty (26:54)

Yeah. Man, I can't wait to read the books about this.

Ryan Seacrest (26:57)

That is not a statement of he's dead to us. Not even close.

Joe Getty (27:02)

No, you're right about that. I also, none of us have any idea what the behind the scenes conversations are here.

Ryan Seacrest (27:11)

Right? Right.

Joe Getty (27:12)

Based on polling I've seen, Ukrainian people are all for continuing to fight so. And as we would be. As you would be if. If some bastard like Putin had taken 20% of your country and kidnapped your children and killed half your family and.

Ryan Seacrest (27:35)

Tortured your men, the idea of, well.

Joe Getty (27:38)

We'Ll sign a deal with them where he gets to keep the land, keep the kids, pays no penalty.

Ryan Seacrest (27:42)

Really?

Joe Getty (27:43)

For murdering and raping half my family. And I'm supposed to just be happy with that?

Ryan Seacrest (27:49)

I know. And it astounds me the number of Americans who are insisting that they ought to do that. We would fight for the next 500 years.

Joe Getty (27:57)

Yeah, yeah, I would personally. But the alternative to what I just said is there's just no world in which it gets any better than the deal I just stated.

Ryan Seacrest (28:08)

That is also true. One more clip from J.D. vance.

Jack Armstrong (28:13)

You expect to do maybe more sanctions.

Ryan Seacrest (28:17)

On Russia or any other steps to pressure both sides if you want to.

Joe Getty (28:20)

Have them on a negotiation?

Ryan Seacrest (28:22)

Well, I don't think that's right, actually. I mean, we still have a number of sanctions that are placed on the Russians. We do believe that the Russians economically are struggling because of this conflict. We do believe that it's in Russia's best interest, but also Ukraine and the United States States best interest to bring this conflict to a close.

Joe Getty (28:38)

So we believe in applying pressure to.

Ryan Seacrest (28:40)

Everybody to stop the killing because that's what the President's policy is and that's what's in the best interest of the American people. So the Zelensky made a statement the other day or yesterday, whenever it was, that he thought the war would be going on for a long time. Play Clip 33 Michael this is Trump's response to that. President Zelensky supposedly made a statement today in ap. I'm not a big fan of ap.

Joe Getty (29:06)

So maybe it was an incorrect statement, but he said he thinks the war's going to go on for a long time and he better not be right about that.

Jack Armstrong (29:14)

That's all I'm saying.

Ryan Seacrest (29:16)

So Zelinsky himself has tweeted, which is a thing these days in international diplomacy. I would like to re I would like to reiterate Ukraine's commitment to peace. None of us wants an endless war. Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than Ukrainians. My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump's strong leadership to get a peace that lasts. We are ready to work fast to end the war. And the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky, ban on missiles, long range drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure, and truce in the sea immediately. If Russia will do the same, then we want to move very fast through all the next stages and to work with the US to agree to a strong final deal. We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things changed, when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this. Our meeting in Washington at the White House on Friday did not go the way it was supposed to. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It's time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be Constructive. And finally, regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it any time and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a step forward toward greater security and solid security guarantees. And I truly hope it will work effectively.

Joe Getty (30:38)

What's the back channel communication between us and Russia? Has Putin got any interest in any of this? Are we just assuming he does that he doesn't think, yeah, I'm not going to sign a deal for keeping the 20% I took because I want 30% or 50% or all of it.

Ryan Seacrest (30:55)

Well, right. And who's going to stop me? My adversaries, really. Most important by far, patron has announced that they're not super interested in backing my adversary anymore and are pulling back on it and just said, we're going to stop arms shipments, so I'm supposed to stop fighting.

Joe Getty (31:13)

Right.

Ryan Seacrest (31:14)

And as we explain that to me.

Joe Getty (31:15)

Says Vlad, and we played Ian Bremmer earlier who said he doesn't believe Europe's going to stand up and protect themselves. So why would Putin stop? His goal might be within range of actually taking over the country.

Ryan Seacrest (31:30)

Either there are measures behind the scenes that Trump is considering that are extremely hard on Russia, or this doesn't make any sense.

Joe Getty (31:43)

Yeah. And having read David Sanger's book and Bob Woodward's book about a lot of the behind the scenes on this and other things during the Biden presidency, you often have no idea what's going on. You just don't.

Ryan Seacrest (31:57)

Yeah, true. And I realized that in one form or another, there was a lot of discussion of British and or French troops being on the ground in Ukraine, which is interesting to try to square with the whole. Putin was justified in invading Ukraine because they made too many noises about Jane joining NATO and he couldn't have that. So it was justified. Well, when there are NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine, like facing off with his guys, that's going to be better. Yeah. I like you say, surely there are things going on behind the scenes that we don't know about that make sense. Because again, disarming Putin's opponent and saying, there, now, let's go to the bargaining table just doesn't make any sense.

Joe Getty (32:38)

Nope. The biggest story of the day that personally affects you the fastest is clearly this tariff thing that kicked in at midnight last night. 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Trudeau, the androgynous prime Minister of Canada. Why do I always need to say something like that?

Ryan Seacrest (33:01)

Well, just because he's a member of the LGB. LGT, LGBT, LGT, LGBT, LGBTQ, two plus.

Joe Getty (33:11)

Yeah, I don't like his politics and he annoys me. But anyway, he said in a press conference just a few minutes ago, I won't sugarcoat it. This is going to be tough.

Ryan Seacrest (33:21)

Yeah, yeah. How tough for you personally and why? Coming up in a couple of minutes, maybe. Again, this could all be over by noon, you know, tomorrow. The way Trump operates, it's hard to say. So, you know, we mock cable news all the time for engaging in these long, serious discussions about a hypothetical that's never gonna come to roost. But the tariffs have been imposed.

Joe Getty (33:47)

Yeah. That's not a hypothetical.

Ryan Seacrest (33:48)

Right, right. A lasting impact is hypothetical, definitely. But at some point, I mean, he imposed them, so can we talk about what it'll mean? Spicy times, friends. Spicy times.

Joe Getty (34:03)

I'd say. My son is at home sick, so I keep texting back and forth with him. He sounds quite miserable. One of the many illnesses floating around my other son. This is an interesting thing. Have you ever. I don't think we ever dealt with this. When I was in school, none of our teams were very good in any sport, but they've got a team at my son's high school that is doing very well and going through the state tournament and marching through. It's very disruptive to a school when you have a team that does well because there's constantly games that everybody goes to or they, I mean, they, they, they let everybody not go to school on Friday to attend one of the games. They're going to be doing that with the coming game, stuff like that. I never realized how disruptive it is if you have like a, A hot football team or basketball team or something like that. Kind of throws things off on the old education end of things for a while.

Ryan Seacrest (34:53)

Sure. Which is going great in America already. So we have plenty of slack to pick up. Plus, then they have pep rallies. I tell you what, you have to have your pep rallied. I question your pep.

Joe Getty (35:03)

We've got spirit. How about you? That whole thing.

Ryan Seacrest (35:08)

Absolutely.

Joe Getty (35:09)

You know, we're the Tigers, you're the Lions, or you the Tigers, and we're the Lions. I can't keep it straight. And we have school pride and whatnot.

Ryan Seacrest (35:17)

Right, Right. And you apparently lack it. At least that's what we're alleging. Your answer is awaited.

Joe Getty (35:26)

Oh, my God. The whole school pride in high school thing is. Is hilarious, looking back on.

Ryan Seacrest (35:32)

Really is. I mean, to the point that if you're from Central and you run into guys from south, there, there could be a fight because, you know, the guys from south in their weird Southern ways or Southern or just a mile away.

Joe Getty (35:46)

Yeah, well, I guess it's no different than professional level sports. I mean, it makes more sense. At least it's people who live in your town as opposed to millionaires.

Ryan Seacrest (35:55)

Yeah, exactly. Anyway, so coming up next segment, a bit of a look at the tariffs, how they might affect you. Plus and this is shocking, friends, I hope you're not too terribly surprised by this. America's trust in mass media has hit the lowest point in more than 50 years. Years.

Joe Getty (36:11)

That is shocking. Who could have predicted that? All that on the way. Stay here.

Jack Armstrong (36:17)

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Joe Getty (39:03)

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Joe Getty (39:18)

So if you're just joining us, for the past three and a half hours we've been talking about the Smoot Hawley Tariff act of 1930.

Ryan Seacrest (39:25)

It's been fast wrapped up. Smoots roll in it. Time to move on to Hawley.

Joe Getty (39:30)

We have new tariffs in place as of midnight last night. 25 on Canada, 25 on Mexico.

Ryan Seacrest (39:37)

Pretty little Justin Trudeau has an opinion on it. And then we will discuss first clip, please. Michael67 I want to speak first directly.

Joe Getty (39:47)

To the American people. We, we don't want this. We want to work with you as a friend and ally and we don't want to see you hurt either. But your government has chosen to do this to you. They've chosen to launch a trade war that will first and foremost harm American families. They've chosen to sabotage their own agenda that was supposed to usher in a new golden age for the United States. Unwad your panties, Justin.

Ryan Seacrest (40:26)

It pains me enormously to agree with Justin Trudeau on anything I am mystified by, especially the tariffs on Canada because Trump has cited the emergency of illegal immigration and fentanyl as the pretext for for the tariffs because there needs to be an emergency for the President to do this. Courts will weigh in and interpret all this sooner or later. But the fraction of fentanyl that comes across Canada is very, very small. The Canadian border And immigration is practically.

Joe Getty (40:57)

That'S just the legal reason we should put that to the side. What's the economic theory? What's Trump hoping to accomplish there?

Ryan Seacrest (41:03)

Well, that's exactly what I'm leading to. So what is the actual reason? Best I can come up with is, and I heard who now here talking about this, some of the Trump team might think that they can help reduce the deficit by taking in enormous amounts of tariff revenue over the short to medium term before too much damage is done to the economy.

Joe Getty (41:29)

Well, like for instance, I don't claim to know anything about this, but I was listening to a news report about how much lumber we get out of Canada because it's cheaper than the lumber in the United States. No, we've got plenty of lumber in the great Northwest, Oregon, Washington, to provide our own lumber. And these tariffs will make it more likely that we use American lumber and that will ultimately be good for us. That was one argument that will be.

Ryan Seacrest (41:57)

Good for the timber industry.

Joe Getty (41:59)

Right.

Ryan Seacrest (41:59)

It's like the, the tariffs on steel and aluminum will help 20,000 steel and aluminum workers and hurt 50 million people who consume the products made of that steel and aluminum and, or manufacture products with the steel and aluminum, etc. So I mean, USA, USA. I'm pleased, I'm at the front of the parade, but I don't understand how me paying more for American timber. I mean, because we're talking about like our closest friend and ally.

Joe Getty (42:37)

Well, most pundits that I like don't agree with Trump on this, but Trump is not a dumb guy, as Trudeau just said, and he's not, you know, he's not trying to commit political suicide. So what does he think is going to happen there?

Ryan Seacrest (42:53)

There are folks with some heft who think tariffs and protectionism actually will work out in the long term in a way that will be beneficial to the whole country.

Joe Getty (43:01)

Is long term a year or 10 years or a cent?

Ryan Seacrest (43:04)

See, that's the problem. To revive certain sectors of the American manufacturing economy, you would have to have like rock solid assurance to the companies that are either gonna move plants here or build plants or start plants, whatever, that they've got at least 15 years that they can count on stability. And there's no way Trump is a one termer can guarantee that. So. And if you know what's interesting is there are loads and loads of people who are more than happy to point out that you're stupid idiots. You just like Trump and then half the time it's you're stupid idiots. You like Trump too much. Anyway, I haven't run into a lot of cogent arguments in favor of this, especially Canada, Mexico. Yeah, we've exported a fair amount of manufacturing to them. Maybe too much, maybe too much globalism. I am absolutely sympathetic to those arguments, but you gotta tell me how it's gonna work for me to swallow that pill. Especially given the political and just practical reality that inflation is killing everybody, has killed everybody, and prices are rising at a lower rate, but they're still rising, which is practically inevitable. But we gotta keep that rate of inflation low as possible while wages rise. And this could hurt the economy. The fact that the market's down significantly the last two days it goes down, it comes up again. They hate uncertainty. And this is a period of uncertainty. I'm not going to leap to any conclusions.

Joe Getty (44:35)

I don't mean nothing.

Ryan Seacrest (44:36)

But I'm having a really hard time finding anybody to say, hey, this is a really good idea. Hammering Canada and Mexico with these tariffs they point out in the Wall Street Journal, which is of course pro business. And you could argue pro globalism, I suppose, although I think they do a pretty good job of, of going through the arguments here. But they think the 25% tariff will raise the cost of a full sized SUV assembling in North America by $9,000 and a pickup truck by 8,000.

Joe Getty (45:08)

Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Raise the price from where it is currently by 9,000 more dollars and a.

Ryan Seacrest (45:15)

Pickup truck by about eight grand. Yeah.

Joe Getty (45:18)

So a 70 grand truck is going to be almost 80 grand.

Ryan Seacrest (45:22)

Yeah, that's the analysis by the Anderson Economic Group. I take all this stuff with a grain of salt, but again, I'm not finding good counter arguments, so.

Joe Getty (45:31)

Well, obviously if that were true, that would be amazingly disruptive. Holy cow.

Ryan Seacrest (45:40)

Yeah. Their concern is that Mr. Trump is whacking friends, not adversaries, because again, the China stuff's in a different box. Do whatever you want to China. They're our enemy. They're trying to ruin us. That his taxes will hit every cross border transaction. And the North American vehicle market is so interconnected that some cars cross a border as many as eight times as they're assembled.

Joe Getty (46:03)

So I mean, if an SUV goes up by almost 10 grand, a new SUV, well, people are going to buy used SUVs and then of course, that market will become distorted and all kinds of repercussions will occur.

Ryan Seacrest (46:17)

Well, and the big automakers will really suffer and the unions will be squealing. And this is a risky move. Why don't we just all agree on that it's risky huh?

Joe Getty (46:28)

Yeah, I've died. This is not my area of expertise at all, but it'll be something to watch.

Ryan Seacrest (46:33)

Well, yeah, the economics is the dismal science. It's. It's very difficult to come to anything close to a certainty in economics. Great hour. Next hour it's our four of the show. If you don't get it, that's fine. Grab it later via podcast. Subscribe to Armstrong and Getty on Demand.

Jack Armstrong (46:52)

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