I'm Just Keeping My Eye On The Elk

Summary

Podcast Summary: Armstrong & Getty On Demand – "I'm Just Keeping My Eye On The Elk"

Release Date: November 21, 2024
Host: Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty
Producer: iHeartPodcasts

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Introduction

In the "I'm Just Keeping My Eye On The Elk" episode of Armstrong & Getty On Demand, hosts Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty delve into a variety of pressing topics ranging from tech monopolies and government workforce inefficiencies to ancient artifacts and international military tensions. The hosts maintain their signature banter, blending humor with critical analysis to engage listeners.

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Tech Monopolies and Antitrust Concerns

The episode opens with a spirited discussion on Google's dominant position in the tech industry and the Justice Department's attempts to curb its monopoly.

• Joe Getty highlights the gravity of the situation:
  "Advertisements next to search results accounted for 57% of Google parent Alphabet's $307 billion of revenue last year." [01:28]

• Jack Armstrong admits his limited understanding but emphasizes the pervasive influence of Google:
  "The fact that you really can't live your life, especially if you got kids in school without being part of the Google world. Doesn't seem right to me." [02:39]

The hosts debate the effectiveness and intent behind the Biden administration's aggressive stance on regulating tech giants, pondering the challenges of breaking up such entrenched monopolies.

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Government Workforce Efficiency

A significant portion of the episode critiques the federal government's workforce management, particularly the inefficiencies arising from remote work policies.

• Joe Getty shares an anonymous account from a Texas state employee:
  "I worked for the state government... I've had many positions like this. Not all, but many government positions like this." [06:59]

• Jack Armstrong empathetically reacts:
  "This makes me so combination of angry and sad. This is how empires die." [08:54]

The discussion underscores issues such as bureaucratic bloat, lack of accountability, and the systemic incentives that lead to underperformance within government roles. The hosts argue that merely enforcing in-office requirements won't resolve productivity issues, as the root causes lie deeper in the administrative structures.

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The Aztec Death Whistle: An Ancient Tool of Terror

Transitioning from modern governance to ancient civilizations, Armstrong and Getty explore the eerie history and functionality of the Aztec death whistle.

• Joe Getty introduces the topic with intrigue:
  "Could it be that an ancient civilization developed a tool, almost a musical instrument, that could make people insane?" [01:28]

• Jack Armstrong adds a dark humor perspective:
  "I need one of those to blow around the kids to get their attention. Time for dinner." [18:33]

The hosts explain that the Aztec death whistle, shaped like a skull, was likely used in sacrificial ceremonies to intimidate and terrorize. They discuss how researchers have recreated the sounds, which resemble human screams, and reflect on the cultural implications of such artifacts.

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Late Night Comedians' Joke-Off: Biden's Birthday Edition

A recurring segment in the show features a humorous competition where Armstrong and Getty critique jokes made by late-night comedians about current events, in this case, President Joe Biden's 82nd birthday.

• Joe Getty introduces the segment with flair:
  "I will judge each of the jokes and grade them in the bottom joke. The bottom grade getter will be banned from comedy for life according to the authority of the International Criminal Court." [20:26]

Highlights include:

• Jimmy Fallon's attempt:
  "They didn't cut him a slice of cake. They pureed it and he drank it with a straw." [21:08]

• Jim Gutfeld emerges as the favorite with his "bed bath and great beyond" joke, earning high praise for its creativity.

The segment showcases the hosts' playful rivalry and sharp wit, providing listeners with a blend of humor and critique on media portrayals of political figures.

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Political Commentary: Leadership and International Tensions

A substantial discussion revolves around President Joe Biden's leadership capabilities amid escalating international tensions, particularly concerning Russia and Ukraine.

• Joe Getty expresses concern over Biden's perceived disengagement:
  "President Biden needs to resign. He should not be president of the United States right now." [23:25]

• Jack Armstrong references expert opinions and literature:
  "The name of the book is Nuclear War: A Scenario by Annie Jacobson... it's freaking fascinating, if you like that sort of thing." [26:20]

The hosts analyze recent missile strikes in Ukraine, debating whether Russia's use of an Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) signifies a new escalation or mere political maneuvering. They scrutinize Biden's responses and the possible implications of his administration's actions on global stability.

Key points include:

• Ian Panel's Report:
  "Multiple strikes by Russia on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro... ICBMs have never been used in combat before and are nuclear capable." [34:45]

• Discussion on Putin's Strategy:
  "Putin just makes decisions constantly and writes a law one day and defies it the next without even thinking about it." [37:05]

The conversation highlights fears of nuclear escalation, the complexities of international diplomacy, and skepticism towards current U.S. leadership's ability to manage such crises effectively.

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International Affairs: Russia, China, and Missile Launches

The episode also touches upon broader international military developments, including China's recent ICBM launch and its potential impact on global geopolitics.

• Joe Getty comments on the frequency and intent behind such military actions:
  "It seems clear that Putin wants to send the message yet again that any escalation in weapons supply or their use will be met with hard asperity." [36:15]

• Jack Armstrong reflects on China's actions:
  "China successfully launched an ICBM into the Pacific just a couple of weeks ago the first time since 1980." [32:23]

The hosts consider the implications of these developments, discussing the balance of power, treaty obligations, and the strategic motivations behind missile launches.

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Additional Segments and Closing Remarks

Throughout the episode, Armstrong and Getty intersperse their discussions with advertisements, humorous interludes, and brief mentions of other news topics such as Netflix's class-action lawsuit and gender-related societal changes in Washington.

• Promotions:
  Advertisements for AT&T Mobile plans and Prize Picks are seamlessly integrated, providing listeners with offers while maintaining the episode's flow.

• Closing Thoughts:
  The hosts wrap up the episode by reiterating key points, encouraging listeners to stay informed, and previewing future topics related to government inefficiencies and international relations.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Joe Getty:
  "Advertisments next to search results accounted for 57% of Google parent Alphabet's $307 billion of revenue last year." [01:28]

• Jack Armstrong:
  "This makes me so combination of angry and sad. This is how empires die." [08:54]

• Joe Getty:
  "The Aztec death whistle sounds exactly like Alanis Morissette. And I said, yeah, with a dude singer." [15:22]

• Joe Getty:
  "President Biden needs to resign. He should not be president of the United States right now." [23:25]

• Jack Armstrong:
  "How is that not a bigger story?" [23:32]

• Joe Getty:
  "Government is an enormous cash cow for people within it. Wake up." [11:08]

---

Conclusion

In "I'm Just Keeping My Eye On The Elk," Armstrong and Getty offer a multifaceted exploration of contemporary issues, blending humor with critical insights. From dissecting tech monopolies and government inefficiencies to unraveling ancient artifacts and navigating international crises, the hosts provide listeners with a thought-provoking and entertaining experience. Notable for their candid opinions and engaging dialogue, Armstrong and Getty effectively illuminate the complexities of modern society while maintaining their unique comedic flair.

Transcript

[Jack Armstrong]

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[Joe Getty]

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[Joe Getty]

Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty. Armstrong and Getty. And now he's Armstrong and Getty.

[News Anchor]

President Elect Trump announced yesterday that he has selected former television personality Dr. Oz as the administrator for the centers of Medicare and Medicaid services. Wow, another daytime television guy. It's like his whole cabinet was selected by a kid who was homesick with the flu.

[Joe Getty]

That's pretty good. It does have that feel to it. We've got a late night joke off later on this hour that'll be exciting.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. So yesterday was Joe Biden's birthday and all of the late night hosts of course had jokes about that. And we'll compare and contrast at the bottom of this hour. So stick around.

[Joe Getty]

And could it be that an ancient civilization developed a tool, almost a musical instrument, that could make people insane? We will tell you about the Aztec death whistle and play the sound. And yes, while this is a transparent and jivy effort to keep you tuned in, it's also amazing, really freaky and amazing. So stay tuned for that. A handful of stories worth touching on briefly. And we mentioned that the big judges ruling against Google, the Justice Department says they should be forced to sell the Chrome browser and they're asking a judge to order it because they have too much of an of a monopoly on search, search engines and the Chrome browser is the most popular one on Earth, I guess. And then they pay billions and billions of dollars for Apple, for instance, to make Google the default on IPH and iPads and the rest of it. And nobody's quite sure which way this is going to go. The Biden administration, Justice Department and FTC is super activist, like too far in my mind. Right.

[Jack Armstrong]

I'm an ignoramus on this sort of stuff. What's a monopoly and what's not and what's unfair, whatever. But like I said before, the fact that you really can't live your life, especially if you got kids in school without being part of the Google world. Doesn't seem right to me. Yes, the idea, well, you could opt out. Well, you can, but it's not. I mean it'd be really, really, really difficult. Go ahead and tell your boss that you don't do Google so you won't do which, which is their platform for meetings.

[Joe Getty]

Whenever Google Meets, Google Meets.

[Jack Armstrong]

So you know, I can't be on.

[Joe Getty]

That meeting or Google Docs, I don't.

[Jack Armstrong]

Do Google or I don't use do Google Docs, I don't do Google Classroom. Go ahead and try. That ain't a very easy way to live your life.

[Joe Getty]

Right, let's see. Advertisements next to search Results accounted for 57% of Google parent Alphabet's $307 billion of revenue last year. And the court case that people are looking at as A precedent was 25 years ago when U.S. court of Appeals vacated lower courts ruling blah blah, blah. They said that Microsoft had gotten huge organically. It grew. It wasn't through mergers and acquisitions, which could be anti competitive. It was because it was really, really good. And so you couldn't break it up over that. On the other hand, a 25 year old court case about tech is, I mean, did. Could he even right click a mouse 25 years ago? I don't know.

[Jack Armstrong]

No kidding, right? Yeah, that's a good point. Any sort of judgment about technology from 25 years ago, obviously that's the dinosaur age.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, yeah. Musk and Ramaswamy want federal workers in the office full time. There's a hitch. And the interesting part of this to me, and they talk about the fact that most employees actually go to work five days a week anyway in the federal government because of the nature of the work. If you're a park ranger, you can't keep an eye on the elk or whatever you're doing remotely. You work for the VA, in a hospital, et cetera, et cetera. But there's a reasonable keep an eye on the elk.

[Jack Armstrong]

What do you do? Well, the bulk of my job is keeping an eye on the elk. I know one.

[Joe Getty]

What are you doing over there just standing here? I'm like an elk. All right.

[Jack Armstrong]

I only actually know one park ranger, but I know that the bulk of her job was looking out for meth encampments.

[Joe Getty]

Right. And poachers too. That can be incredibly dangerous work.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah.

[Joe Getty]

Being a park ranger or a game warden, that sort of thing. Because they're often like on their own 50 miles from anybody.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right.

[Joe Getty]

Help them. So respect to those folks. But anyway, so it's. What is it, 20%, maybe 25% of the federal workforce is working remotely. And they say that it's comparable to the private sector and they just move on. And here's the discussion that I never hear outside of this show or when we've talked to Tim Sandifer through the years. The entire dynamic of quality work, of accountability, of getting your money's worth, is completely different in government work than it is in the private sector.

[Jack Armstrong]

I don't think most people think about that, which is crazy.

[Joe Getty]

It is crazy. And to say, well, actually remote workers and the government about the same ratio as the private sector. So there's nothing to see here. Oh, no, no, no, no. I'm the boss here. I don't like the quality of work that's being done. See, that's. That's the thing. It reminds me of so many other discussions we've had recently. Not only does no one know how efficient federal workers are in general, or in that department or in that department where they're all working remotely, nobody even asks. And there are a bunch of other things I want to get to, including Jack the Aztec death whistle, but I was reminded of this email that we got from we'll say Al Anonymous. You're talking about how many members of the federal workforce work from home with very little oversight, the implication being that they have work to do but get nothing done because they aren't being closely supervised. I work for the state government. I'll let you guess which state. Very large. It has an ocean next to it.

[Jack Armstrong]

Texas.

[Joe Getty]

I worked for the state government. Pardon me?

[Jack Armstrong]

Must be Texas.

[Joe Getty]

Nailed it. I worked for the state government. I can tell you that's not the problem. In my current role I hate. I have very little actual work to do. I've had many positions like this. Not all, but many government positions like this.

[Jack Armstrong]

I love these stories. I love these stories. We you would not believe because we've been on in California, which is another large state, for many, many years. We've heard from state employees for many, many years. We've heard these stories for decades. Love them all. Back to Joe.

[Joe Getty]

Oh yeah, the. The show's long been based out of Sacramento, California, the capital of the state. And state workers, many of whom are conservatives and good fol, are in the belly of the beast. And your worst imaginings aren't bad enough. Anyway, back to Al. Anonymous note here. I've told my supervisor I have nothing to do. I've been in positions in the past where I volunteered to help other teams with their work. Problem is they don't have enough work to stay busy either.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh my God.

[Joe Getty]

Here's how it works in the state. I won't mention. Bring on the announcement.

[Jack Armstrong]

Now. We need a state doge. Bring on the doge.

[Joe Getty]

Here's how it works in California. The unions take a cut of your pay and pass it up the chain to the Democratic Party. The Democrats ensure that the public employee workforce grows, so the Democrats also increase their cut. The union bosses get a fat cut of that take. Most state employees have a side hustle. They work during the day, even the managers. The employees get mediocre pay with great medical benefits and a fat retirement package. The side hustle helps pay the bills in the short term. The managers don't want to micromanage the employees because it would take them away from the side hustle. Employees who ask for more work or make it clear that they don't have enough to do are a pariah. Nothing will sabotage your career faster than pointing out how much time employees waste doing nothing. No one wants to hear it. They're working the system and they know it. But they didn't design the system and have no control over it anyway.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh my God. This, this. Just this. This makes me so combination of angry and sad. This is how empires die.

[Joe Getty]

Jack is sangri. Not to mention resentful taxpayers. I work for a tax agency. Every new tax leads to more positions for our agency, usually as part of the legislation. No one ever asks whether we could administer the new taxes with existing employees. We just get new employees at random.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow.

[Joe Getty]

The workforce isn't the problem. We're just cogs in the wheel. Forcing us to work in the office more often won't increase productivity. Will just make us drive to an office so we can chit chat with each other and do nothing. There simply isn't enough work for the number of employees.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow. And then that whole you wait till you can retire at a pretty young age, you're like 50. So if you started early, because I know several people like this who live lives like they won the lottery because they did the state government work and then retired and because healthcare is not a worry and he got a pension, it's just. It's incredible. And I don't know how much work they did leading up to that, but this person here and many people they observe doesn't seem to be a whole lot.

[Joe Getty]

For what it's worth, Mr. Anonymous got a certification in an advanced field that you need certification to practice in and is Finishing his master's degree soon. All on work hours because there's nothing to do.

[Jack Armstrong]

That is incredible. That is.

[Joe Getty]

And Gabby Newsom. Just California and all blue states. They want to raise your tax.

[Jack Armstrong]

Texas. And that is just so freaking sickening and maddening. And I have zero belief that there's anything that can be done about it. Zero.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

Not. Not minimum or not much or it's a coin flip. Zero. I have zero belief that anything can be done about it.

[Joe Getty]

Correct. So moving along, totally different topic.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, my God. You can't. You can't drop that cyclone bomb of a story on me and expect me to get over it with what I pay in taxes. Good lord.

[Joe Getty]

I know.

[Jack Armstrong]

Ah.

[Joe Getty]

Government is a for profit business for the people in it. The whole. It's a non profit. That is the phoniest. That would. The most misleading term that's ever created. I, Joe Getty, run a nonprofit. We save the squirrels and we want milk. We know. Right, Right. Well, you know, you keep an eye on the elk while you're saving the squirrels. It's easy. They don't move around much. But anyway, yeah, we're a nonprofit or a not for profit. I happen to have a salary of $650,000 a year. But we're not for profit. Ha ha ha. That's what government is. It's an enormous cash cow for people wake up.

[Jack Armstrong]

Every time you try to shrink it at all or cut back at all, people howl and scream about firefighters and.

[Joe Getty]

Teachers, the budget on the backs of the poor. Hilarious. So finally, this. Speaking of government, this is a careful, painstaking analysis of Kamala Harris's campaign and the big super PAC that was financing it named. What's the name of this campaign? The PAC Future Forward that's raised over a billion dollars and how they might have misstepped and did they spend their money too late? And they're explaining why they spe their money, why they did, and they're being blamed for blah, blah, blah. And nobody in this long article ever says, you know, the candidate was a. That nobody liked. Right. An unlikable moron. I mean, you could. You could work hard on massaging your media strategy, but you're still putting media lipstick on a swine.

[Jack Armstrong]

She refused to answer the simplest questions. So there's that and the most obvious.

[Joe Getty]

Of questions she had no answer for. So they're debating how much was spent on the lipstick and what shade it was. I find that hilarious. Keep wasting your time and money on that question. Coming up, Jack. The Aztec death whistle.

[Jack Armstrong]

The Aztec death whistle, I will make.

[Joe Getty]

You wait no longer. Other than the commercial break, a tool, a sound that made people insane.

[Jack Armstrong]

Also on the way, Good news on 401ks, if you're a 401k person, and you should be, and a bunch of other stuff. So stay here.

[Joe Getty]

Armstrong and Getty.

[Maria Konnikova]

I'm Maria Konnikova.

[Nate Silver]

And I'm Nate Silver.

[Maria Konnikova]

And our podcast Risky Business is a show about making better decisions. Both Nate and I are journalists who moonlight as poker players.

[Podcast Co-Host]

We've both won and I have to say, lost hundreds of thousands of dollars playing poker. And poker is a lens that we're going to use to approach this entire show. Because poker isn't just about playing cards. It's actually about how to make good decisions. It's an entire framework for thinking about the world.

[Nate Silver]

In addition to poker, we'll be talking about the wide world of gambling. So sports betting, for example, plus the news, politics. It is an election year and personal.

[Podcast Co-Host]

Decisions, too, like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.

[Nate Silver]

Tune into Risky Business every Thursday.

[Maria Konnikova]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Jack Armstrong]

Take Russia, fire an ICBM into Ukraine. That's still trying to be nailed down. We got the latest on that coming up.

[Joe Getty]

So the Aztec death whistle.

[Jack Armstrong]

I feel like you really enjoy saying that.

[Joe Getty]

Oh, I do. Who wouldn't? Certain old friend of the show and personally and constitutional scholar said, let me guess. Aztec death whistle sounds exactly like Alanis Morissette. And I said, yeah, with a dude singer.

[Jack Armstrong]

I want a T shirt that says Aztec death whistle.

[Joe Getty]

So folks who studied the Aztec culture have come across this artifact that is clearly some sort of whistle. It's shaped as a. It's shaped like a skull and it likely represents like 37 letters, unpronounceable. The Aztec lord of the underworld.

[Jack Armstrong]

So Aztecs, like a Native American Indian tribe from the Mexico area died out long, long time ago. Probably killed by the Spaniards, that sort of thing.

[Joe Getty]

Those one of the great ancient civilizations the Western hemisphere. Yeah, indeed. But so they believe that these whistles played a crucial role in sacrificial ceremonies and some other things, like maybe preparing for war ceremonies and that sort of thing.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, that's the thing with all those peaceful, loving Indian tribes from down south of the border. Lots, lots of human sacrifices, lots of taking little kids and throwing them into fires. Oh, my God.

[Joe Getty]

Well, and as part of the rituals, they would blow in these whistles and. And it's not clear exactly what they are hoping to get out of It. When researchers, they use the CT scans and 3D modeling to reproduce them because they didn't want to abuse the actual artifacts. But so they've. They've made perfect replicas of these things and blown into them. And if you're driving, keep a steady hand on the wheel. Okay. Or pull over, or. And I know this sounds like One of those 1950s movies, a movie so terrifying you must show a certificate from your doctor. But it's.

[Jack Armstrong]

It's.

[Joe Getty]

I swear I'm not jiving you because I came across this and I said, wow, how interesting. Oh, go.

[Jack Armstrong]

Neat.

[Joe Getty]

They have audio of the whistles. Let me listen to it. And I cried myself to sleep. Okay. All right. So you're about to hurl kids into a volcano, and they. There are two of them, and they blow on this.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow.

[Joe Getty]

You have that going on all around you. If that didn't give you the frickin willies.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow.

[Joe Getty]

I don't know what. Play the other one. Michael plainly made to emulate a human scream of abject terror.

[Jack Armstrong]

How in the world did they craft a whistle that sounds exactly like a person screaming out in fear or pain?

[Joe Getty]

Well, I don't know. Maybe, you know, Jose the whistle maker was sitting around crafting a whistle. He was looking for something, trying to, you know, I'd rather be a hammer than an ale Simon Garfunkel sound. That was like. That was Peruvian, I think, but. And he's like, oh, dude, I totally screwed up this whistle. Instead of sounding like the Paul Simon thing, it sounds like a human being having their entrails.

[Jack Armstrong]

No, no, no, wait. Keep it. Keep that. Jose the whistle maker. That'd be perfect for when he tossed children into volcanoes. Good Lord.

[Joe Getty]

What? Really? You think? Okay.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow, that is horrifying.

[Ian Panel]

That is horrifying.

[Jack Armstrong]

You picture that a whole bunch of people standing around blowing those whistles as they, you know, torture and kill innocent humans. That is brutal.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

All cultures are not wonderful and. And, you know, something to aspire to.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah. Some are vastly better than others and protect human rights and dignity. Way better than others. And I got one in mind that I'm really fond of and prepared to defend.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow, that is some sound.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah. Freaky, huh?

[Jack Armstrong]

I need one of those to blow around the kids to get their attention. Time for dinner.

[Joe Getty]

That's good parenting. Armstrong and Getty.

[Maria Konnikova]

I'm Maria Konnikova.

[Nate Silver]

And I'm Nate Silver.

[Maria Konnikova]

And our podcast Risky Business is a show about making better decisions. Both Nate and I are journalists who moonlight as poker players.

[Podcast Co-Host]

We've both won, and I have to say, lost hundreds of thousands of dollars playing poker. And poker is a lens that we're going to use to approach this entire show. Because poker isn't just about playing cards. It's actually about how to make good decisions. It's an entire framework for thinking about the world.

[Nate Silver]

In addition to poker, we'll be talking about the wide world of gambling. So sports betting, for example, plus the news, politics. It is an election year and personal.

[Podcast Co-Host]

Decisions, too, like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.

[Nate Silver]

Tune into Risky Business every Thursday.

[Maria Konnikova]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Jack Armstrong]

Netflix has been hit with a $50 million class action lawsuit because of the Tyson Paul fight streaming glitches. So we're all just. It made me so mad. I deserve money or something.

[Joe Getty]

That's ridiculous. It's gonna ruin America.

[Jack Armstrong]

It really is. It really is.

[Joe Getty]

Okay, so go ahead.

[Jack Armstrong]

So coming up, we will get to the whole, did Russia fire in icbm? That's a pretty big deal. And we'll hear a report from in panel on ABC about that. But. So we haven't done a late night joke off in a while. It's. It's when some story is big enough that all the late night comedians try to craft a joke around it. And yesterday's. It was Biden's birthday. But do we have a bunch of different comedians or different jokes or.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, we do. We got four of them.

[Jack Armstrong]

Four different comedians.

[Joe Getty]

Two of them are Jimmy Fallon General. We just do one each from the one. Yeah, we got one. We got a Myers, a Fallon, a Gutfeld, and a Colbert. Oh, I see. Okay. Something's mislabeled, but it doesn't matter. And I, Joe Getty, will judge each of the jokes and grade them in the bottom joke. The bottom grade getter will be banned from comedy for life according to the authority of the International Criminal Court, which has as much authority as I do for banning comedians for life. All right, let it roll, Michael.

[News Anchor]

President Biden today celebrated his 82nd birthday and he marked the occasion the way many older men do by fighting. Jake.

[Joe Getty]

Paul, My gloves are too big.

[News Anchor]

Today is President Biden's 82nd birthday.

[Jack Armstrong]

Hey.

[News Anchor]

You can tell Biden is getting up there because they didn't cut him a slice of cake. They pureed it and he drank it with a straw.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, wow.

[News Anchor]

I'm kidd. So it's Joe Biden's birthday today.

[Joe Getty]

He turned 82.

[News Anchor]

Dr. Jill gave him a gift certificate to Bed Bath and the Great Beyond. It's Joe Biden's 82nd birthday. Happy you hear the people. Happy birthday, Joe. We got you a cake, but Nancy Pelosi insisted you sacrifice it for the good of democracy.

[Jack Armstrong]

You know, I think that's the first time I've laughed at every joke.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, yeah. I, I gave Fallon a C minus, which one was a pureed joke. It was just funny. Easy Mark. Easily amused. I don't know. Gutfeld, the clear winner with a solid.

[Jack Armstrong]

A bed, bath and great beyond.

[Joe Getty]

Great beyond. Yeah. Oh, that was beautiful. Yeah. So unfortunately, Jimmy Fallon, who seems like a really nice fella, is banned from comedy.

[Jack Armstrong]

It's too bad for him.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

A couple of politics things for you. 1 Mark Halpern writing today. Is anybody, like, concerned that the current president of the United States took no questions at a time of several different great international crises going on at the same time? And his party, like, with one of the biggest disruptions in its history, nothing to say, no questions. It's because he's not capable. The question is, doesn't that bother anybody? In case you didn't hear us mention it yesterday, Nate Silver, one of the great pollsters in America who got so much attention during the election from the lefty crowd, New York Times, everybody else said yesterday, Joe Biden needs to resign. He said viewing Joe Biden at the G20 down there in Brazil and seeing him take no questions and shuffle around, he should resign. He should not be president of the United States right now. It's scary.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, I would agree. I've agreed for quite some time.

[Jack Armstrong]

How is that not a bigger story?

[Joe Getty]

I don't know. I don't. Well, I don't know. I think it's just, it's baked in.

[Jack Armstrong]

I thought it would get pushed by.

[Joe Getty]

Everybody understands that and has understood it for a long time and just has accepted it and is waiting for January.

[Jack Armstrong]

I thought it would get pushed by the wouldn't it be great to have our first female president crowd. All those people that voted for Kamala Harris, aren't they pushing for her to be president for a couple of months at least?

[Joe Getty]

You would think so. I haven't really come across that. And I think there are a hell of a lot of American women who think, yeah, it'd be great to have an American president. How about we have one that's not a moron because that would reflect poorly on women.

[Jack Armstrong]

Do you think the problem is Kamala Harris is so not respected that the pushing him to resign for her just doesn't seem like a big upgrade? Do you think that's it.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, I think the number of people who are advocating for her in any way to do anything is pretty small at this point. Also, and here's the real sticking point. You've got a guy and his wife, in my opinion, in the Bidens, who were pushing something as utterly delusional and almost hilariously unrealistic as, oh, he can serve another term. Somebody that delusional. Unless the plan was to win the election because he thought he could beat Trump, then resign practically immediately. But I don't get the sense that that was the plan. But anyway, somebody who's that damn delusional is not going to say, you know what? I'm not that sharp. Maybe I'll step down and give up the last couple of months of my term. It's just not going to happen.

[Jack Armstrong]

I know, you know, people make jokes about how old he is all the time, but for real, we all saw that debate and various other things he's done. There's a chance that whoever went into the Oval Office today and said, we believe Russia fired an ICBM into Ukraine and he doesn't know who they are or what they're talking about or was asleep, there's a decent chance of that. Or he started talking about it for a cube a couple of seconds and forgot and started talking about. I mean, that's, that's not crazy, like right wing trying to be a comedian stuff. There's a decent chance of that.

[Joe Getty]

Well, right. And given the way dementia progresses, keep in mind that debate, that was four months ago. He's four months further down that road.

[Jack Armstrong]

No kidding. That's highly troubling. But then, you know, you got the. Do I want Kamala Harris to receive the ICBM information and make some sort of decision? Not really. I'd rather have Blinken and, and Burns at CIA and Sullivan and whoever else. Sec. Def. Austin, you know, let them figure it out.

[Joe Getty]

So far, so good. And, and I use that term advisedly. I mean, good. By the standards of the Biden administration, nothing's gone seriously sideways yet.

[Jack Armstrong]

One more politics thing. Karl Rove and who called the Matt Gates thing a catastrophically bad selection. And then Dan Henninger, who writes for Wall Street Journal, I think, wrote today about the Matt Gaetz thing in Washington. Functional relationships really matter, and Matt Gaetz has none. Hold the screams about establishment sellouts. Since ancient Athens, success in achieving political goals has depended on personal relationships. Washington, like it or not, is about politics. In this respect. Donald Trump and Matt Gaetz couldn't be less alike. Trump is a relationship Guy, he maneuvers people inside his deals. Mr. Gates does the opposite. He makes people not want to do business with him. As Attorney General, he would fail and the Comey Holder legacy would survive. That's what you were saying earlier, that if you want to disrupt the Justice Department, Gates ain't going to be able to get it done because. But that's true. Trump is. Trump figures out a way, either through carrots or sticks, to have relationships with people. Matt Gaetz has acted so far like, I don't need anybody. I can do everything completely on my own. F y'all.

[Joe Getty]

Right. Right. I'm told over and over again that he's an exceptionally bright guy and that a lot of his ass clown act is just that it's an act, but behind closed doors, he's really an impressive.

[Jack Armstrong]

Guy, but behind closed doors, he legit has no friends, though. He's pissed off everybody.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

They all hate him.

[Joe Getty]

Well, and back to Trump. The word on Trump is when you meet him personally, he is utterly charming and likable. The brash kind of pisses people off. Public Persona, it's not there in person. And Gates is the opposite. Yeah. Again, my argument, I mean, there's absolutely truth to the idea that you can't have somebody who's just a reckless lawbreaker in charge of the Justice Department. If these allegations are true, and I think some of them are, some of them are, frankly, a little squishy in the way that, you know, sexcapades tend to be. But the second thing is I just don't think he'll be effective. That's my argument against the guy.

[Jack Armstrong]

And one more thing on Gates from Mark Halperin's newsletter, which I thought was interesting. The press keeps writing that there's no apparent strategy for getting Matt Gaetz confirmed, when in fact the strategy is clear. Go step by step, taking advantage of senators inclination expressed by new leader Thune and others to give the president's picks a fair hearing. So you just get to the hearings, then you get a favorable committee vote, then you dare all Republican senators, including Collins and Murkowski, to defy the new president and MAGA by publicly voting his choice down on the floor. Uh, that's the step by step by step. And Trump thinks that's good analysis. Yeah. When you get there, people are going to think, do I want to take on this headache? Do I just give Trump his guy, his person? So we'll see.

[Joe Getty]

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[Jack Armstrong]

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[Jack Armstrong]

Wanted to hit you with a head. My favorite headline of the day. Where is it? This is from the New York Post.

[Joe Getty]

Is it better than Aztec Death Whistle?

[Jack Armstrong]

This is the one that almost makes me want to click on it. I was smoking and reading the Bible when I decided to give up cigarettes. I felt blessed when I got lung cancer. What? Not sure I followed that. Might have to click on that story. Coming up, we'll hear a little bit about the latest reporting on whether or not Russia fired off an icbm. A lot of you I know believe Biden is hell bent on getting us into World War three or putting Trump in a horrible, difficult situation. I don't know about that, but the saber riding, saber rattling is maybe the highest in the entire war, which has been going on for three years. More on that coming up in a little bit.

[Joe Getty]

Armstrong and Getty.

[Maria Konnikova]

I'm Maria Konikova.

[Nate Silver]

And I'm Nate Silver.

[Maria Konnikova]

And our podcast Risky Business is a.

[Podcast Co-Host]

Show about making better decisions.

[Maria Konnikova]

Both Nate and I are journalists who moonlight as poker players.

[Podcast Co-Host]

We've both won and I have to say, lost hundreds of thousands of dollars playing poker. And poker is a lens that we're going to use to approach this entire show. Because poker isn't just about playing cards. It's actually about how to make good decisions. It's an entire framework for thinking about the world.

[Nate Silver]

In addition to poker, we'll be talking about the wide world of gambling. So sports betting, for example. Plus the news, politics. It is an election year and personal.

[Podcast Co-Host]

Decisions too, like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.

[Nate Silver]

Tune into Risky Business every Thursday.

[Maria Konnikova]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Jack Armstrong]

I'm trying to read up on how significant this is or isn't that Russia may have fired an icbm, some sort of ballistic missile. Definitely. Whether or not it was an ICBM or not, into Ukraine. I'm reading from who is this? Somebody who is a think tank person with defense policy. Don't get caught up on the range of the missile system launched, whether it was an ICBM or an irbm. I don't know what that means. Intermediate range ballistic missile, probably. The range isn't the important factor. The fact that it carried an MIRV payload is much more significant for signaling purposes and is the reason Russia opted for it. This payload is exclusively associated with nuclear capable missiles. So this was a gesture of like you said earlier, it's not like we don't know that they can fire that they have these missiles and can fire them. I guess the fact that you actually fired one is considered significant. And then the fact that that's got to scare the hell out of her. Whoever's job it is to sit there and monitor satellite feeds picking up missiles because we have the ability to pick up a missile. Read that new book about nuclear war. I don't have it memorized. I'll have to look that up. That the woman that put together all the information on the planet about nuclear war, she goes through second by second what it would be like if there were a full on attack by Russia from the first. Within two seconds it's picked up on a satellite, then where the information goes from there and then who makes what decision when it's fascinating. And then when the missile would hit the United States, what would be like after that? How many people would die? How long? The whole thing is just frightening as hell. But anyway, there are people that monitor this sort of stuff. And if Putin's firing off these kind of missiles that had to have somebody's underwear in a wad before they figure out exactly where it's going and what it's doing. Anywho, Ian Bremmer tweeted out that China successfully launched an ICBM into the Pacific just a couple of weeks ago the first time since 1980 that they had launched an ICBM. That's a long time because we have agreements not to do that sort of thing, especially without notifying people. Anyway, Ian Bremmer said Russia is saying hold my beer. Here's Ian Panels report on that.

[Ian Panel]

Overnight multiple strikes by Russia on the eastern Ukrainian city of Dnipro and the situation is rather confused. A big question, what was it? Ukraine initially saying it was an ICBM strike and President Zelensky just reimbursement enforcing that in the last few minutes. But they're still assessing. ICBMs have never been used in combat before and are nuclear capable. But this wasn't a nuclear strike. And a Western official also saying they didn't think it was an icbm, but many agreeing that they haven't seen a strike like this before.

[Jack Armstrong]

Interesting. That's Ian panel from ABC News. He goes on here and then we can discuss.

[Ian Panel]

But of course, the attack comes in the wake of Ukraine firing American ballistic missiles and the US Embassy here closing yesterday amid fears about a potential Russian attack. And we're also hearing that North Korean generals and high ranking officers were present at the site of yesterday's strike using British cruise missiles into Russia. I mean frankly, it's been a week of escalations. All of this is going to be a huge challenge for President elect Trump and his plans to try and end Russia's war here in Ukraine.

[Jack Armstrong]

Your thoughts? Before I start talking again, a couple of things.

[Joe Getty]

It just, it seems clear that Putin wants to send the message yet again that any escalation in weapons supply or their use will be met with hard assery. So that's fairly typical. If it was an icbm, that's a pretty big deal. If it wasn't, it probably wasn't a big deal just because they're heaving missiles at each other like crazy. And then the whole Putin has changed their nuclear use protocols. I read into that and it's not a big deal at all. He doesn't go by protocols. It's an autocracy. He just makes decisions constantly and writes a law one day and defies it the next without even thinking about it. Now the Soviet Union was very systems based and they wanted to prevent a nuclear war with the United States. And so they had protocols that they actually paid attention to. But they said with Putin it's merely saber rattling. Now whether he's prepared to pull out a saber and stab somebody with it, that's a different question. And I know some people think he is. But all in all, I just Think it's more just maneuvering, political maneuvering, to try to get to the bargaining table with the best deal possible.

[Jack Armstrong]

Joe Getty, soft on nuclear war. I hope you're right. I hope you're right. My concern is that he thinks, and he may be correct, that he could get away with a limited nuclear strike and that the world would like, really get angry and say mean things and talk about sanctions, which never work, but he'd get away with it.

[Joe Getty]

Or maybe they'd blame the US and NATO. Who knows?

[Jack Armstrong]

Right?

[Joe Getty]

I suspect rather strongly that in the real world, Putin would pick up the phone, he would call Biden, he would be told the President is sleeping. He would call back two hours later, he'd be told it's not a good time. He would call back the next day, trying to catch Biden at a cogent moment, and he would say, look, you pull back this or we're going to set off a small nuclear device in Dnipro. That is what is going to happen. Consider your options carefully. Call me back.

[Jack Armstrong]

And nobody knows. According to the books I've just recently read, Secretary Blinken himself doesn't know how Biden would react to that. That he wonders.

[Joe Getty]

Right.

[Jack Armstrong]

By the way, the name of the book is Nuclear War A Scenario by Annie Jacobson. And it's the best book ever written about all the ins and outs of what that would look like and what it's been throughout history. And it is freaking fascinating, if you like that sort of thing. No doubt what Ian Panel said there. It has been a week of escalations with Ukraine using our atacms and then using the British long range missiles yesterday, and then Russia using a bigger rocket than they've used so far. And you hope that it stops there?

[Joe Getty]

I guess, yeah. Yeah. And again, I suspect rather strongly that it will. But we'll find out next hour. Some gender bending madness developments in our nation's capital.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, because the first trans congressperson.

[Joe Getty]

Yes, indeed. Plus people are spending five figures and endangering their vision to change the color of their eyes.

[Jack Armstrong]

What?

[Joe Getty]

Good idea or vain nonsense?

[Jack Armstrong]

Who cares what color their eyes are?

[Joe Getty]

These people Armstrong and Getty.