It's the Economy, Stupid!

Summary

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Armstrong & Getty On Demand – “It's the Economy, Stupid!”

Podcast Host: iHeartPodcasts
Date: May 15, 2026
Special Guest: Gary Dietrich (CBS Television & iHeartRadio Political Analyst)

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Episode Overview

This episode delves deep into the intersection of American political sentiment and the realities of the economy as the nation heads toward the 2026 midterms and looks ahead to 2028. Jack Armstrong is joined by recurring guest Gary Dietrich for a candid conversation about how inflation, national mood, and shifting local politics (especially in California) are shaping voter attitudes. They also discuss the impact of past presidents on current political dynamics, speculate on what happens as Donald Trump eventually exits, and muse on issues of self-governance and civic education.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Economic Realities Drive Politics

• Public Mood & High Prices:
  • The discussion opens with Jack noting widespread dissatisfaction, citing “wrong direction” polls and positing that no matter the sophistication of campaigns, economics reign supreme in voters' minds.
  • “It might just come down to if things are too expensive, they vote for a different person.” – Jack Armstrong [03:58]
• Historical Parallel – “It’s the economy, stupid”:
  • Gary echoes Jack, referencing the 1992 Clinton campaign:
    “Back in '92, four words defined that presidential campaign…it's ‘the economy, stupid.’ And that has continued to ring so true that it's now Practically, you know, taped above every campaign headquarters door.” – Gary Dietrich [04:36]
• Current Economic Factors:
  • Inflation’s persistence, global impacts (Iran war affecting gas), and the limits of presidential power over pricing are dissected.
    • “Trump brought some of this on himself by insinuating that he could make prices go down, which is not the way inflation works… You can’t make the price of bacon go back to what it was in 2020.” – Jack Armstrong [05:30]
    • Tariffs briefly raised inflation, but war/international events more recently to blame.

2. Midterm Predictions & Political Consequences

• Historical Trends & Impeachment Talk:
  • Predicting a typical midterm backlash with the out-of-power party taking the House, Jack speculates this will set off impeachments and investigations.
    • “Democrats take the House, we're gonna have impeachments, aren't we?” – Jack Armstrong [06:32]
    • “It won't just be impeachment, Jack. It'll be all kinds of investigations…including, yes, the Trump administration's effect on the price of bread.” – Gary Dietrich [06:54]
• Redistricting and Wild Swings:
  • Redistricting, Supreme Court decisions, and census changes foretell instability in House control:
    “We could see some pretty wild swings, particularly in control of the House…” – Gary Dietrich [07:20]

3. California as a Microcosm of Discontent & Change

• San Francisco & Los Angeles Politics:
  • Jack notes a visible transformation in San Francisco post-mayoral shift, questioning if L.A. is next.
  • Gary lists fires, homelessness, and budget issues as drivers of Angeleno dissatisfaction with incumbent Mayor Karen Bass.
  • Reality show personality Spencer Pratt is unexpectedly viable as a “fed-up” candidate, echoing the unconventional rises of Trump and Arnold Schwarzenegger:
    “Weird things happen when people have had enough.” – Gary Dietrich [08:19]
    • Top-two primary likely results in a November runoff.

4. Historical Perspective & Civic Ideals

• Reflections on Democracy & History:
  • In light of July 4th’s 250th anniversary, Jack asks Gary about favorite Founding Fathers-related works.
    • Gary praises the HBO “John Adams” series, and shares hope for a national “reset,” highlighting U.S. democratic endurance:
      • “We are darn lucky to live in the longest standing democracy in human history with all its warts…Founding Fathers got a lot of it right.” – Gary Dietrich [10:31]

5. Concerns about Civic Education

• Self-Governance & Education Deficits:
  • Jack bemoans the absence of self-government education in public schools:
    • “They just don't teach this stuff at all.” – Jack Armstrong [12:48]
  • Gary notes the rise of alternative learning and the surprising breadth of knowledge available online, though not always from formal schooling.

6. The Trump Question – GOP and Beyond

• Trump as a Lame Duck & Post-Trump GOP:
  • Jack wonders about the post-Trump landscape, to which Gary predicts his influence will last longer than most, citing historical exceptions to “lame duck” rules:
    • “A lot of the rules of politics have not applied to Donald Trump.” – Jack Armstrong [14:30]
    • “How much pressure does Donald Trump try to put on…the scale for 28, and how much of it is going to remain?” – Gary Dietrich [14:48]
  • Gary notes the dual question: Trump’s sway over Republicans and for how long Democrats can run against Trump as their central plank.
    • “How long can they continue to run on being against Trump?…maybe that doesn't have legs anymore.” – Jack Armstrong [15:33]
• Comparison to Obama’s Post-Presidency Influence:
  • Obama’s youthful legacy vs. Trump’s age, but both could shape politics post-term.

7. 2028 Democratic Landscape & Kamala Harris

• Future of Kamala Harris:
  • Jack asks bluntly if Harris, whom he considers a historically weak candidate, will remain relevant:
    • “Kamala Harris, is she going to be on the scene again?” – Jack Armstrong [16:43]
    • Gary is noncommittal: “Nobody really knows…she's probably in the race. Probably.” – Gary Dietrich [16:56]
    • Jack jibes: “Trump will be a lame duck. She’s a lame O.” – Jack Armstrong [17:25]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Economic Voting:
  “If things are too expensive, they vote for a different person.” – Jack Armstrong [03:58]
  “It’s the economy, stupid.” – Gary Dietrich [04:36]
• On Political Fatigue:
  “You look at people’s...‘state moving in the wrong direction’...the electorate ain’t happy. It doesn’t matter where you go.” – Gary Dietrich [08:19]
• On Democracy’s Longevity:
  “We are darn lucky to live in the longest standing democracy in human history…” – Gary Dietrich [10:31]
• On Trump’s Uniqueness:
  “A lot of the rules of politics have not applied to Donald Trump.” – Jack Armstrong [14:30]
• On Kamala Harris:
  “Trump will be a lame duck. She’s a lame O.” – Jack Armstrong [17:25]
• On Nontraditional Candidates:
  “Weird things happen when people have had enough.” – Gary Dietrich [08:19]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:15 – 06:32: The economy as the central political issue; historical context; inflation discussion.
• 06:32 – 07:43: Midterm elections, redistricting, and speculation about impeachment/investigations.
• 07:43 – 10:04: California politics: San Francisco’s turnaround, L.A.’s mayoral race, and rise of outsider candidates.
• 10:04 – 11:24: Reflections on America’s founding, democracy, and idealism.
• 12:48 – 13:44: Civic education deficit in schools and rise of alternative, online learning.
• 14:16 – 15:59: Trump’s eventual exit, his continued influence, party realignment, and the Democratic strategy.
• 16:40 – 17:25: The future for Kamala Harris as a national Democratic figure.

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Tone & Style

• Conversational, witty, skeptical – The hosts don’t mince words, and Gary Dietrich provides grounded, thoughtful analysis with a dash of optimism.
• Mix of humor and seriousness – From jabs at politicians to earnest concerns about democracy and education.
• Accessible political analysis – Clear enough for listeners without deep expertise yet meaty for political junkies.

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Takeaways for Listeners

This episode offers a lively, incisive window into the way everyday Americans and analysts alike process political and economic uncertainty. Whether you’re interested in the nuts and bolts of economic impact on elections, the ripple effects of national politics in local contexts, or the long shadow of modern presidents, you’ll come away with fresh insights and a few laughs.

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Transcript

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[Jack Armstrong]

The governor of California, Gavin Newsom, handing out porn machines to prisoners in the state of California paid for by taxpayers as reported yesterday. And we brought that story to you at the cost of $2,000 per tablet, much more than if you had gone straight to Best Buy anyway. And that they get to use them to look at porn. He pushed back on that hard yesterday. So all of the. The governor pushed back on that story hard. So we'll have to update you on that a little bit later in the program. Joining us right now to talk about some politics of whatever pops into our mind, Gary Dietrich, who's been joining the Armstrong and Getty show for many, many years. He's a CBS television and iHeartRadio political analyst. How are you today, Gary?

[Gary Dietrich]

Hey, Jack. I'm doing great, my friend. Yeah, well, no lack of things in the political world these days, eh?

[Jack Armstrong]

God, I'd say we were having the discussion yesterday, Joe and I, on how just talking about like the national mood where you see all these wrong direction numbers for the country and the economy and all that sort of stuff. It might just come down to when things are expensive, they want somebody different. I mean, you know, political, you went to Harvard and political analysts and the political scientists and all the complicated this and that, who's got the best ads and who's got the most money in the bank for buying ads and who's got the endorsements and all these complicated things we talk about. It might just come down to if things are too expensive, they vote for a different person.

[Gary Dietrich]

You know, Jack, you're amazingly astute given the fact that we back in 92 four words defined that presidential campaign as you'll now remember, it's the economy, stupid.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right, right, right.

[Gary Dietrich]

And that has continued to ring so true that it's now Practically, you know, taped above every campaign headquarters door. I mean, and that's where right now, the President and the GOP find themselves in a real conundrum, you know, over this, over the recent inflation numbers. Again, going up a little bit. Of course, we know, you know, the Iran war, gas prices that lead to all kinds of other, as you know, inflationary pressures. And that's the challenge right now on a national perspective, because people are feeling it. They were already feeling it as, you know, going into 24, that was supposed to be relieved in 25 by the Trump administration. Numbers were ticking down, but as they go back up, people ain't happy.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. And, you know, they. Trump brought some of this on himself by insinuating that he could make prices go down, which is not the way inflation works. You could stop the prices for going up more, but you can't make. You can't make the price of bacon go back to what it was in 2020.

[Gary Dietrich]

Well, yeah, I mean, that is part of the problem is that while inflation has cooled, as you know, it doesn't mean that a loaf of bread now costs a dollar less than it did a year ago. And the challenge for the Trump administration, Jack, has been pretty simple. Came in with that really heavy emphasis on price reduction, then suddenly decided that tariffs were the most important thing. And a lot of people are scratching their heads, saying, well, this is going to add to the inflation numbers, which it only did mildly, and that has cooled off. But then the Iran war has ticked those back up. So it is. It's kind of a race against the clock, Jack. I mean, you know, five months till the. Till the November midterms, and those could be heavily influenced by what people are paying when they go to that gas pump.

[Jack Armstrong]

Well, historically, the other party wins in the midterm, so let's just assume that happen. Democrats take the House, we're gonna have impeachments, aren't we?

[Gary Dietrich]

Do we want to start talking about the I word already? But you're absolutely right.

[Jack Armstrong]

I think we're gonna be in the midst of it, and it's gonna be the biggest story in America, unfortunately, you know, starting next January.

[Gary Dietrich]

Well, the thing. It won't just be impeachment, Jack. It'll be all kinds of investigations. Right. I mean, there'll be House committees investigating everything, including, yes, you know, the Trump administration's effect on the price of bread. And that's. That's a challenge. So the question, of course, becomes how big that margin is going to be. I mean, all the redistricting, shenanigans that have gone on in the last six to 12 months, as you know, are going to impact that. They're going to impact it. By the way, for a number of election cycles to come, we could see some pretty wild swings, particularly in control of the House of Representatives as a result of all the things we don't have time to go into today. But the recent SCOTUS decision, the Virginia decision, the census is going to, the census is going to come and have new districts redrawn. So we could see some pretty wild politics, Jack, in the next couple of cycles.

[Jack Armstrong]

Speaking of swings and wild politics, you are a California based pundit as, as our show is based in California. And I don't know if you've noticed the difference in San Francisco over the last year or two since the new mayor came in. I mean, it went from a bum every five feet in a lot of the nice shopping districts of San Francisco to you can't find a bu. Because of policy changes, people finally got fed up in San Francisco. Is that happening in Los Angeles? Is the Spencer Pratt guy running as a Republican going to be the mayor of la? Because people have had enough.

[Gary Dietrich]

Yeah, you know, that's, that's an outstanding question, Jack. Okay, here's what we know for sure. I mean, you look at people's, you know, state moving in the wrong direction, city moving the wrong direction, nation moving in the wrong direction, kind of poll numbers and you, you know, led off with it. Excellent fashion at the top of the show, Jack. You know, the electorate ain't happy. It doesn't really matter where you go. And that's true in la. And Mayor Karen Bass, the incumbent, she has got a fight on her hands because people are upset. I mean, of course the fires in la, their view is she was, you know, largely involved in some of that problem and hasn't really addressed it very well. The homelessness issue in LA continues to be very huge. I mean, budget issues, the fire department budget. I mean, so this is where Spencer Pratt has gotten traction. And you know, it's remarkable to think about that. People say, well, there's no way he could get elected. And then of course they have to drop names like, oh, I don't know, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Donald Trump and say, you know, weird things happen when people have had enough.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, I think the better comparison is Donald Trump. Cause Pratt kind of has that breaking all the rules, I'm gonna do all kinds of crazy stuff. And no negative stories seem to stick to him in the same way that Trump seems to have that Ability.

[Gary Dietrich]

Well, that's true, but you know, you also gotta remember Arnold Schwarzenegger was walking around with a broom in his hand on the stage saying it's time to clean out in California. He had his own peccadillas, you know, and stuff that came out. People didn't care. They'd had enough with these so called professional politicians and ousted them. So this again in California is another one of these top two primaries. So there'll be, there's three main candidates. If nobody gets 50% or more, which it looks very likely is going to happen, nobody's going to get that majority. It's going to be a runoff in November and we'll see what happens.

[Jack Armstrong]

Hey, just because it's on my mind. Before we had you on, we were talking founding father stuff with our friend Tim Sandifer in his new book. And we're coming up on the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence and all that sort of stuff. You have any favorite founding books or TV shows or documentaries or anything like that? As a guy who's been studying government

[Gary Dietrich]

his whole life, well, I'll tell you, I love that. I love that John Adams TV series, if you remember that.

[Jack Armstrong]

That was really good.

[Gary Dietrich]

I mean, I, I think to me, Jack, you know, taking, stepping back from all the stuff we get involved in on a week to week basis politically stepping back, I really hope and, and I'm trusting, just putting my trust, in fact, that this is gonna, maybe not a full reset, but people stepping back and saying, you know what? We are darn lucky to live in the longest standing democracy in human history with all its warts, all the bad stuff, right? Founding Fathers got a lot of it right. And I have told people many times over the years, you know, that, hey, listen, I think they got it right in putting a lot of faith in the fact that people will eventually figure it out. We don't want a king, we don't want a monarchy, we want to govern ourselves. I don't know, call me an idealist, but I still think we got a long way to go in a democracy that so far, so far has survived two and a half centuries.

[Jack Armstrong]

Well, Gary Dietrich, let me punch a hole in your optimism in just a moment. First, I need to tell people about trust and will, which is just plain a good idea. I personally, I can, off the top of my head, think of three families I know that were torn apart when mom or dad died. And then who gets the house? Who gets the money? Who gets the camper? Why, why do you get Half when I've been taken care of mom in the last years of her life and you live in another state and, and there was no trust or will so they had to fight that out in the courts and then the, you know, the state steps in and they make decisions you might not like. It is a mess and it rips families apart. And you can avoid that for your kids or brothers and sisters or whatever by going to trust and Will. Trust and will. They've got a platform that makes it easy to create your will or trust online. It's fast and as little as 30 minutes you can create a will that lets you document your wishes, guardians, asset distribution, health care planning, all that trust and will affordable estate plans, priceless peace of mind. Go to trust and will Comm slash armstrong and get 20% off. That's trustandwill.com Armstrong get your 20% off. Trustandwill.com Armstrong I don't know what your experience is but I still have school age kids and in the public school they don't learn any of this stuff, man. They just don't teach this stuff at all.

[Gary Dietrich]

Well, I mean, you know, my kids are now, they've gone through the public school system, one's now in a public university that I don't know Jack, you happen to live very, very close to. So I, you know, there's been so much discussion about the direction of higher education. One thing you do know for sure, Jack, and this is really interesting, you know, I hear you guys talk about this occasionally and that is the plethora of variety of opportunities that people have. I mean in the past it was just assumed you're going to go to a four year public college or whatever, maybe you get into Harvard, maybe you don't. But now there's so many online courses, so many other things. My son is remarkable in the amount of knowledge that he has, Jack, that comes not one bit from a university course. He just spends a lot of time online sourcing all kinds of stuff. And I am sometimes astounded at the amount of economic and political knowledge that he has. This simply came from time he spent worthy time on his phone.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, there's no doubt about it. But it is troubling to me. I mean you can, I loved your little rant about self governance being better than this and that and all that but man, if they're not teaching it in schools, that is not, is not going to land with the kids any. Anyhow, that's a different topic when, when Trump leaves the scene. I don't think we've talked to you about this. When Trump leaves the scene, which, God, we're only a year and a half into his term, we got a while. But when Trump leaves the scene, what do you think it's going to look like?

[Gary Dietrich]

Well, Jack, I'll tell you, this may, this, these questions may come a lot sooner than later. They're going to come anyway. Okay. I mean, after the midterm election, this Trump is officially a lame duck, right? He already is officially. Now he can't run again.

[Jack Armstrong]

As we all know, though, a lot of the rules of politics have not applied to Donald Trump.

[Gary Dietrich]

Yeah, well, people still say, well, he's gonna run for a third time. He's not gonna run.

[Jack Armstrong]

No, no, no, I don't think that, I don't mean like that. I just mean that, you know, historically, you become a lame duck, you have no power. You know, Trump might be different.

[Gary Dietrich]

No, you're absolutely right. That's gonna be the main question, Jack, is going after the midterms, the day after these mid presidential race in 28 starts. I mean, unofficially, semi, officially, everybody's gonna be out there. Republicans, yes. Rubio, yes. You know, Vance, yes. Maybe others, DeSantis, whatever. And then a massive amount, as you know, of Democrats. So the question's going to be how much pressure does Donald Trump try to put on the scale, how much, you know, thumb pressure does he put on that scale for 28, and how much of it is going to remain? How much do Senate candidates, House candidates. Yes. Presidential candidates, you know, view that? And how much do Democrats continue to run against him as their main campaign issue?

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, that's a good angle. I hadn't heard anybody bring that up. There's not only the how much sway does he still have over the Republican Party. We, we saw how he, you know, he threatened those, the dudes in Indiana and got his way. How much sway does he have over the Republican Party? But how much sway does he have with the Democrats? How long can they continue to run on being against Trump? You're right, because maybe that doesn't have legs anymore.

[Gary Dietrich]

Yeah, because here's my biggest question, Jack. You know, we've had past presidents that have gone out on a campaign trail and been very effective witness. And Obama. Right. That have campaigned for many cycles after their president and had a lot of impact. And people that have even said, like during the Biden administration, well, the real power behind the throne, you know, the person that if you really want to get going and invite your campaign rally, you got to get Barack and Or Michelle there. And I wonder if that's going to be Trump's legacy that for cycles to come he's going to stay very visibly involved and be a real political power.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. Biggest difference being Barack Obama was 50 when people were saying that and Trump will be 83 or something like that.

[Gary Dietrich]

Well, there's that. But the Trump plane still got plenty of gas in it.

[Jack Armstrong]

Quick question before we run out of time here. The worst presidential candidate for a major party in US History, Kamala Harris, is she going to be on the scene again?

[Gary Dietrich]

Okay, well, I get that question a lot. In fact, I got it on the CBS last night. The thing about it is this. Nobody really knows. I mean, please do it. Saying it's looking like Jack, she's probably in the race. Probably.

[Jack Armstrong]

Who are her advisors?

[Gary Dietrich]

That could make for very interesting politics running a third time. Oh boy. I mean, it's going to get messy. Especially related to her fellow Californian, Gavin Newsom.

[Jack Armstrong]

Trump will be a lame duck. She's a lame O. That's the way that works. Gary Dietrich, CBS television and iHeartRadio political analyst. Thank you for your time, Gary.

[Gary Dietrich]

Of course. Jack will talk to you soon.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh my God. Who is advising Kamala Harris? Is there ever been anybody less self aware in human history than Kamala Harris of the way as she's perceived by most people, including her own crowd? Wow, that is wild. All right, we got more on the way. Stay here.

[Gary Dietrich]

Armstrong and Getty.

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