Make it Too Tough to Swallow.

Summary

Podcast Summary

Podcast: Armstrong & Getty On Demand
Episode: Make it Too Tough to Swallow
Date: May 20, 2026
Host: Armstrong & Getty
Guest: Josh Rogin (Global Opinions Columnist, Washington Post; Author of Chaos Under Heaven)

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Overview

This episode centers on the escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan, the shifting balance of power in East Asia, and the global consequences if China were to invade Taiwan. The discussion, featuring expert guest Josh Rogin, covers the practicalities, risks, and broader meanings of American deterrence, the evolving US-China relationship, and the future of the international order.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Immediate Stakes: What Happens if China Attacks Taiwan?

[02:08 - 04:43]

• Josh Rogin frames the scenario with urgency: President Trump’s hesitation to support arms sales to Taiwan has sent tremors through the region.
  • Quote: “Without those US arms, the chance of deterring, much less repelling, any sort of Chinese invasion for the Taiwanese goes way, way down. So that's not great.” (Josh Rogin, 02:28)
• If China invades:
  • Taiwan is outmatched militarily unless the US intervenes.
  • Control of Taiwan means China would dominate the Taiwan Strait—where 50% of the world’s shipping passes (03:55), and 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan.
  • The regional balance would tilt: countries like Japan, Singapore, and South Korea would be incentivized to rapidly militarize.
  • Worst-case: A broader war, potential nuclear escalation involving regional powers.
  • Quote: “If the Chinese attack, the Taiwanese would get crushed in a second without our help... All of them [the outcomes] bad.” (Josh Rogin, 02:55–03:54)

2. The Strategy of Deterrence: “Too Tough to Swallow”

[04:43 - 06:10]

• The co-host notes deterrence hinges on U.S. credibility.
• Rogin explains:
  • The strategy is not to fight a war, but to make the risk and cost of attacking Taiwan so high that Xi Jinping never attempts it.
  • China is rapidly closing the military gap: building the largest military buildup in history; investing in nuclear, cyber, and cognitive warfare; subverting Taiwanese society and politics.
  • Quote: “We make it so hard that they don’t try it. That every day Xi Jinping wakes up... and says, not today. It’s going to be too difficult today.” (Josh Rogin, 04:58)

3. Economic Restraint on China’s Ambitions

[06:10 - 07:38]

• The host suggests China’s reliance on exports and the risk of global economic shock serves as a brake on invasion plans.
• Rogin agrees, noting Xi’s preference to subdue Taiwan without direct conflict, citing Hong Kong as a precedent:
  • Beijing didn’t invade Hong Kong, but instead “strangled” its autonomy incrementally.
  • The likely approach is to destabilize Taiwan’s democracy enough to encourage political outcomes favorable to China.
  • The next presidential election in Taiwan (2028) will be decisive.
  • Quote: “The best scenario for Xi Jinping is that he takes Taiwan without firing a shot.” (Josh Rogin, 06:34)

4. The Human Factor & Global Message

[07:41 - 09:29]

• The co-host highlights the uniqueness of the potential world change if Taiwan is taken.
• Rogin underscores:
  • The 23 million Taiwanese do not want to be ruled by Beijing.
  • Allowing Taiwan to be “swallowed up” would embolden autocracies worldwide and demoralize those resisting dictatorships elsewhere.
  • Quote: “People do not actually want to live on their knees, and they don’t actually subjugate themselves to that kind of rule willingly.” (Josh Rogin, 08:07)
  • Support for Taiwan is vital to defend freedom and democracy globally.

5. China’s Internal Vulnerabilities

[09:29 - 11:01]

• The host asks whether China’s demographic and economic problems could slow its ambitions.
• Rogin:
  • China has serious internal problems, but these don’t constrain them in the way democratic nations’ problems do.
  • Xi’s government can mask or manipulate economic crises.
  • The West should exploit these vulnerabilities to delay or deter Chinese aggression.
  • Quote: “Their problems don’t affect them the same way our problems affect us, because they don’t have things like elections... it’s all a corrupt economy anyway.” (Josh Rogin, 09:55)

6. The New World Order: Xi & Putin’s Vision

[13:07 - 15:01]

• Discussion pivots to Xi Jinping’s now-famous statement to Putin:
  • “There are changes happening the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years. Let’s drive those changes together.” (President Xi, quoted at 13:20)
• Rogin’s take:
  • The post-WWII order, which brought peace and prosperity, is breaking down.
  • The world must reckon with what system comes next—and who gets to shape it.
  • Rogin argues it should not be authoritarians like Xi and Putin.
  • Quote: “If we’re going to replace that [international order], what are we going to replace it with? ... Whatever we replace it with probably shouldn’t be decided by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.” (Josh Rogin, 13:40)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Deterrence: “We make it so hard that they don’t try it. That every day Xi Jinping wakes up... and says, not today.” (Josh Rogin, 04:58)
• On U.S. Credibility: “We’re 9,000 miles away, China’s 2 feet away. If they attack, there isn’t an effing thing we can do about it.” (Quoting Trump, Josh Rogin, 02:34)
• On Taiwan’s Strategic Impact: “90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors are made in Taiwan. All the Nvidia stuff, all of it. It’s actually manufactured in Taiwan.” (Josh Rogin, 03:55)
• On Authoritarianism: “People do not actually want to live on their knees, and they don’t actually subjugate themselves to that kind of rule willingly.” (Josh Rogin, 08:07)
• On the Global Order: “Whatever we replace it with probably shouldn’t be decided by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.” (Josh Rogin, 13:40)
• On Xi & Putin’s Ambition: “There are changes happening the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years. Let’s drive those changes together.” (President Xi to Putin, 13:20)

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Segment Timestamps for Reference

• [02:08] – Taiwan’s vulnerability and regional consequences of invasion
• [03:55] – Taiwan Strait and semiconductor dependency
• [04:58] – Policy of deterrence: making invasion “too tough to swallow”
• [06:34] – China’s “Hong Kong playbook” for Taiwan and economic risks
• [08:07] – The will of the Taiwanese people and defense of democracy
• [09:55] – Exploiting China's weaknesses, differences in democratic vs. authoritarian constraints
• [13:20] – Xi Jinping’s hot-mic statement to Putin and the meaning for world order

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Tone & Feel

• The conversation is urgent, candid, and occasionally grim but not hopeless. Rogin brings sober expertise and a clear pro-democracy stance; hosts engage with a mix of skepticism and concern, spiced with dark humor.

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Conclusion

This episode offers a deep, accessible look at why Taiwan matters—not just strategically or economically, but as a frontline of the global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. Rogin’s analysis highlights both the dangers of complacency and the need for continued, creative deterrence, while warning against ceding the future world order to autocratic leaders.

For those who haven’t listened, this summary covers the full depth and spirit of the discussion, providing both the vital facts and the memorable perspectives that define Armstrong & Getty’s style.

Transcript

[Podcast Host]

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[Podcast Moderator]

We're joined by Josh Rogan, global opinions columnist with the Washington Post, author of a terrific book, Chaos Under Heaven, Trump Xi and the battle for the 21st century. Speaking of Trump Xi and battles, Josh, welcome.

[Commercial Voice]

How are you?

[Podcast Moderator]

Let's talk about it.

[Josh Rogin]

Hey guys, great to be back with you.

[Podcast Moderator]

So let's talk about Taiwan and the stakes involved because there's been a lot of talk, well, from. For decades and certainly more recently about does the US Defend Taiwan, et cetera. What's China's timetable? Let's start with what would it look like to the world economy if China made a serious military move on Taiwan?

[Josh Rogin]

Right. Well, it's in the news, of course, because President Trump went to China, met with Xi Jinping and then said, I'm not so sure I'm going to sell Taiwan the arms that we promised we were going to sell them. We sent a shockwave through the region, especially through Taiwan, because without those US arms, the chance of deterring much Less repelling any sort of Chinese invasion for the Taiwanese goes way, way down. So that's not great. Okay, but the question that you ask is the right one, what happens if they actually try it? And, you know, the main determinant is whether or not we help them. And, you know, would that American president, in that moment, press that button and send U.S. troops or U.S. ships or U.S. bombs to help the Taiwanese stop the Chinese invasion? And when I asked President Trump about that, when reporting for my book, he was very clear. He said, We're 9,000 miles away, China's 2ft away. If they attack, there isn't an effing thing we can do about it. That's what he said. Okay, so he's not very enthused about the idea of intervening on Taiwan. He doesn't say that, but that's the idea. And what does that mean? That means essentially, if the Chinese attack, the Taiwanese would get crushed in a second without our help. They would get crushed in a second. And after that, a number of scenarios can play out. All. All of them bad. You know, in the best case scenario, China controls, not only that, the Taiwan Strait, where 50% of the world's shipping goes through sooner or later.

[Podcast Co-host]

Did you say 55.

[Josh Rogin]

Oh, yes. 50% of the world's shipping goes through that. When one way or another needs the. Depends on the Taiwan Strait. And that's a lot. And then the 90%. 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors are made in Taiwan. All the Nvidia stuff, all of it. It's actually manufactured in Taiwan, Most of it, anyway. That's pretty. China controls that. And then think about the rest of the region. You've got Japan, Singapore, South Korea. All of those countries would immediately realize that they have no choice but to arm themselves to the teeth because America is not coming. And the entire region just becomes a powder keg forever. That's kind of like the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is there's an actual war over Taiwan. And that would immediately involve the Japanese, the North Koreans, maybe. Now we're talking nuclear weapons. And then it just gets worse and worse.

[Podcast Co-host]

Well, the best best case scenario, of course, as you know, is China's too scared to try it because they're so certain that. That we and the rest of the world would fight on Taiwan's behalf. But we're not exactly sending that message right now.

[Josh Rogin]

Well, that's right. The. The whole idea of the policy has been, for many decades is that we make it so hard that they don't. They don't try it. That every day Xi Jinping wakes up, he looks across that street and he says, not today. It's going to be too difficult today. And the truth of the matter is that that balance of power between China and Taiwan and its friends is moving in the direction of China's advantage. Every single day, China's building the largest military buildup in the history of the world. Hundreds of nuclear weapons silos where those for, you know, a massive landing invasion, cyber warfare, Internet warfare, cognitive warfare. They're messing with Taiwanese politics, they're messing with their elections, they're messing with their media, they're messing with their minds on a constant basis all day long. And that's not good. Okay? And we're. And so in order for the United States and its friends and allies to keep that balance up so that Taiwan seems like, too. Too tough to eat, you know, like too. Too difficult to swallow, you know, whatever you want to call it, we would have to do a lot more, and we're not doing a lot more. And so that's what. That's really the most worrying thing. It's not what would happen on the day of the attack, but, like, every single day that China gains an advantage, it actually, in my opinion, makes the situation a lot more dangerous.

[Podcast Moderator]

Interesting talking to Josh Rogan, global opinions columnist for the Washington Post. Josh, I've said that one thing restraining Xi is that China is so entirely dependent on exports. A gigantic shock to the world economy would be enormously damaging to them, too. That's at least helped delay, you know, what might be inevitable. Agree, disagree, expand on that. Your thoughts?

[Josh Rogin]

Yeah, no, I think that's exactly right. The best scenario for Xi Jinping is that he takes Taiwan without firing a shot. You know, look at what happened in Hong Kong. They never attacked Hong Kong. They just suffocated it. They just messed with it, messed with the people there, you know, clamped down as much as they could and eventually strangled the democracy and freedom out of Hong Kong. And it worked. And they never had to fire a shot. That's the idea. I think that's what he's going to try to do first. That's why I don't think a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is coming in 2027. I think maybe they could be able to do it, but Xi Jinping is going to try best he can to mess with Taiwan so much that maybe the Taiwanese get so, you know, battered down that they fold. Or maybe they elect someone who's pro China because he messes with the other people so much. He's definitely going to try that. But I think in 2028, when the Taiwanese make their next presidential election, if they choose someone like they have now, someone who doesn't want the Chinese to take over Taiwan, because guess what? Most Taiwanese don't want the Chinese to take over Taiwan. I think that's when Xi Jinping might realize that the military and economic risks might be worth it for him.

[Podcast Co-host]

Well, I'm glad you're somewhat optimistic.

[Josh Rogin]

It's very theory.

[Podcast Co-host]

I'm glad you're somewhat optimistic. It's not going to happen in the next year. But. But are we not dealing in reality at some point? I realize that if China takes Taiwan, we live in a completely different world than all of us have lived in our whole lives. But yeah, as China grows into an economic superpower, military superpower, and they got that island right off their coast, is it realistic to think that the world's not going to keep them from taking it?

[Josh Rogin]

Yeah, I mean, it's a good question. I think that 23 million Taiwanese people are not going to want to be ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. And if we let them just get swallowed up by the Chinese Communist Party, that's really bad for any other country in the world that lives next to a psychotic dictatorship that wants to take it over. I mean, look around the world like, you know, the cause of freedom and democracy. Not really doing that well at the moment. You know, the autocrats are on the march now. The Ukrainians are fighting back. That's great. You know, hopefully someday the Iranian people get another chance to throw off their government. That's great. But right now, yeah, a lot of people around the country are like, hey, it looks pretty bleak for the Taiwanese. But here's the thing, you know, people do not actually want to live on their knees, and they don't actually subjugate themselves to that kind of rule willingly. And they, they tend to resist. Now, sometimes they lose. But never discount the fact that people don't want to live on their knees. And really the only thing that we can do is to support those people who don't want to live on their knees. And, and no, it's not determined yet. China could win. And that country, I don't know if you've ever been there. It's beautiful, the people are lovely, the food's amazing. It would be a damn shame if it fell into Beijing's arms, because that would be a tragedy for all those people and for all of the other people around the world who look at some sort of evil dictatorship on their border and be like, I really don't want to get swallowed up by those guys.

[Podcast Moderator]

Yeah. My response to what Jack said, which is 100% true, would be that you've just got to make it as expensive or difficult as possible for as long as possible and hope things change for the better on one front or another. Which brings us to China's enormous demographic and economic challenges that are going on right now. We won't roll all of them out for you, but they have some serious economic problems going on. How's that going to factor in? Josh, any idea?

[Josh Rogin]

Yeah, it's important to talk about because China's not 10ft tall. They do have a lot of problems, but at the same time, we have to realize that it's going to be the largest country with the largest economy and maybe even the largest military in the region for the rest of our lives. So they're going to continue to have problems. Their problems don't affect them the same way our problems affect us, because they don't have things like elections. You know, I mean, if they have some sort of like crisis in the banking or real estate sector, they just fudge it all because it's all a corrupt economy anyway. So, yeah, they have problems. And we should, in my view, try to maximize our advantages and cause more problems for them because they're out to harm us. You know, in the end, China's goal is not just to take Taiwan, but it's to become the most powerful country in the world and that means our disadvantage. So it's not just about Taiwan. But yeah, they have real vulnerabilities. To my mind, we should, you know, exploit those vulnerabilities and then use that to slow their rise so that we can maintain our leadership in the world, because that's better for us and better for the world. But, you know, it's just not going that well at the moment, if we're being honest.

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[Podcast Co-host]

So President Trump met with President Xi last week. President Xi's meeting with Vladimir Putin today. And I know you're aware of this quote, the caught on a hot mic quote from three years ago when President Xi was talking to Vladimir Putin and said, and I think this is one of the most important quotes of my lifetime. President Xi said, there are changes happening the likes of which we haven't seen for 100 years. Let's drive those changes together. Putin said, I agree. What did that mean and do they still believe that and what do you think they're gonna be talking about today?

[Josh Rogin]

Yeah, I agree with you. It's one of the most important things that I've heard said in a very long time. And what he's saying is something that I think is true, which is that, you know, the international world order or whatever you want to call it, that maintained relative peace and security and in my opinion, ushered in the greatest period of prosperity for America and any country in the world in history since World War II is breaking down. That's pretty obvious. Whatever it is, the multilateral institutions, people were, you know, disadvantaged by the inequities of globalization. All of the grievances, some of which contributed to the rise of Trump and some of which, you know, are just sort of the baked into the corruption of the system, all those grievances are real. But the question is, okay, what do we do now? And if we're not going to have that whole system which, you know, has some good parts and some mistakes were made for sure. And if we're going to replace that, what are we going to replace it with? And to my mind, whatever we replace it with probably shouldn't be decided by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. That's my position. Call me crazy, call me old fashioned, you know.

[Podcast Moderator]

Well, yeah, call it Chesterton.

[Josh Rogin]

The new world system is we're going to pick what it is. I'm against that. I think the Americans should pick what it is. And our allies, maybe Japan and the Europeans too, and, you know, whoever else is on board with us. But if they pick it, I don't think it's going to be good for us.

[Podcast Co-host]

No. Oh, my God.

[Podcast Moderator]

Amen to that, brother. Josh Rogan, global opinions columnist for the Washington Post and again author of Chaos Under Heaven, Trump G. And the battle for the 21st century. Josh, always so thought provoking. Thanks a million for the time.

[Josh Rogin]

Really enjoyed it many times.

[Podcast Co-host]

What a smart guy.

[Podcast Moderator]

And that terrific.

[Podcast Co-host]

That quote that I've read I don't know how many times on the show gives me chills. Actually, it is one of the most important things uttered this.

[Podcast Moderator]

I'm glad you made note of that. You can't remember what you had for lunch yesterday, but man, you, you have absolutely internalized that one. It's a, it is a block bus. Oh, it's huge.

[Podcast Co-host]

It's an all timer.

[Josh Rogin]

Armstrong and Getty.

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