Armstrong & Getty On Demand – "Now Comes the Hard Part. A&G Talk to Mike Lyons"

Date: August 19, 2025
Host: Armstrong & Getty
Guest: Mike Lyons (Military Analyst; former aide de camp, NATO command)

Overview

This episode focuses on the evolving geopolitical landscape surrounding the war in Ukraine, specifically in the context of recent high-profile diplomatic negotiations and assertions by U.S. leaders. Armstrong & Getty welcome military analyst Mike Lyons for a deep-dive into the challenges ahead in potential peace negotiations, U.S. and European involvement, Putin’s motivations, and broader military strategy, including technological shifts in warfare and U.S.-China naval competition.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Diplomatic Crossroads in Ukraine (03:14–08:43)

• The "Hard Part" Begins:
  Negotiations have reached a critical, complicated juncture following diplomatic meetings and security guarantee proposals.
• Redrawing Borders:
  • Lyons notes the grim reality that Ukrainian President Zelensky may have to accept territorial losses:

    "I think Zelensky has come to the conclusion that he's going to lose territory and Russia does already occupy." (05:22, Mike Lyons)

  • The process will be complicated as Ukrainian domestic politics may resist any official ceding of land to Russia.
• Stalemate and Ceasefire Complexity:
  Despite diplomatic efforts, Lyons remains skeptical about a near-term breakthrough, highlighting ongoing Russian attacks on civilians and insufficient Western leverage over Putin.

2. Security Guarantees and Risks for Escalation (06:17–07:45)

• Troop Commitments & NATO Dynamics:
  Discussion centers on the difference between NATO forces and individual European nations deploying troops, and the political tightrope of avoiding direct U.S. boots on the ground.
  • Lyons references the Dayton Accords as a point of caution and historical context.
  • He underscores the importance of not just guaranteeing security, but visibly backing it with sufficient combat power:

    "20 to 30,000 troops of French and British troops are going to need logistical support, and they're going to have to be enough of a threat that would keep Russia at bay." (07:21, Mike Lyons)

• Trump’s Position:
  Trump pledges no U.S. boots on the ground in Ukraine, opting to rely on European partners and air/security support.

3. Putin’s Incentive to Negotiate (07:45–09:00)

• Lack of Pressure on Putin:
  Lyons argues that existing sanctions and Western pressure are insufficient:

  "I don't think he has much yet, and I think that we should have already put the sanctions on. And I think the Biden administration wasted all of their time." (08:00, Mike Lyons)

• Putin’s Objectives:
  He sees Putin trying to bide time, weaken Zelensky politically, and potentially destabilize Ukraine further.

4. The Human Cost and Russian Resolve (08:43–09:37)

• Casualty Figures & Russian Control:
  The conversation covers startling battlefield losses:

  "Russia, 20,000 dead last month, a million, over a million casualties at this point, and tens of thousands of Ukrainians dead. It's just shocking that this is going on..." (08:43, Political Analyst)

  • Lyons highlights Putin’s ability to suppress domestic dissent and conscript from Russia’s vast regions:

    "He's able to pick different Russian tribes still out and send them to the battlefield, into the meat grinder." (09:23, Mike Lyons)

5. Naval Power & the U.S.-China Rivalry (09:37–10:49)

• Shipbuilding Deficit:
  Lyons acknowledges the U.S. is behind China in shipbuilding productivity and infrastructure, but is hopeful due to growing recognition and political momentum for correction:

  "China, though, has gotten well out in front of the United States when it comes to docks and it comes to the automation that they have...We just haven't prioritized. But I think you'll see more emphasis..." (10:09, Mike Lyons)

  • He reveals a personal stake:

    "I've got a son in the Navy, so I'm vested in what happens here." (10:38, Mike Lyons)

6. Technological Transformation: Drones and AI in Battlefield Warfare (10:49–12:16)

• U.S. Military’s Rapid Adaptation:
  • The U.S. military is intensely focused on catching up to Ukraine’s innovative use of drones:

    "The complete focus now shifted towards drone technology, adding drones to all of the different training that they're doing." (11:09, Mike Lyons)

  • Drones will become standard issue for infantry, revolutionizing reconnaissance and combat.
  • Lyons describes the coming fusion of AI and drone tech:

    "We're not there yet where they're going to determine the targets. But, you know, the things about the drones... it can hover forever. It can... be selective on targets." (11:52, Mike Lyons)

  • He also mentions collaborating with startups to further advance drone applications.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the "Hard Part" of Peace Negotiations:

  "This is probably the beginning of the beginning, if you're looking for some kind of analogy here."
  (05:15, Mike Lyons)

• On the Perils of ‘Ceasefire Borders’:

  "Ceasefires are where borders have been drawn... You never get that land back. If Ukraine wants any chance of getting any land back... you do not want a ceasefire."
  (13:13, Political Analyst paraphrasing Leon Panetta)

• On Putin's Enduring Power:

  "That’s kind of a Western narrative to try to think that there’s going to be this internal Russian pressure to get Vladimir Putin to stop—that’s just not gonna happen."
  (09:12, Mike Lyons)

• On Drones Changing Warfare:

  "We're going to get to the point where a drone will be part of a basic kit of an infantry soldier, aside from their weapon and canteen and the like."
  (11:18, Mike Lyons)

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:14 | Start of in-depth Ukraine/NATO/Putin discussion with Mike Lyons | | 05:13 | Lyons lays out the diplomatic dilemma and border reality | | 06:51 | Security guarantees, European troop involvement, historical parallels | | 08:00 | Lyons on lack of Putin’s incentive to make peace | | 08:43 | Human cost, casualty figures, Russian "meat grinder" tactics | | 09:56 | U.S. shipbuilding deficit vs. China, strategic implications | | 11:06 | Drones, AI, and military technological adaptation | | 13:13 | The risk of ‘frozen’ borders with ceasefires, reference to Leon Panetta |

Summary for New Listeners

This episode gives a critical, realistic breakdown of the diplomatic impasse in Ukraine, the pitfalls of ceasefires, and the shifting nature of military conflict. Mike Lyons provides grounded, insider analysis, highlighting what’s at stake for Ukraine, the West, and Russia, along with how technological advances and great-power competition are changing the strategic landscape. Anyone interested in modern geopolitics, military affairs, and the real-world implications of high-level diplomacy will find this episode especially informative and thought-provoking.