Now Comes the Hard Part. A&G Talk to Mike Lyons

Summary

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Armstrong & Getty On Demand – "Now Comes the Hard Part. A&G Talk to Mike Lyons"

Date: August 19, 2025
Host: Armstrong & Getty
Guest: Mike Lyons (Military Analyst; former aide de camp, NATO command)

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Overview

This episode focuses on the evolving geopolitical landscape surrounding the war in Ukraine, specifically in the context of recent high-profile diplomatic negotiations and assertions by U.S. leaders. Armstrong & Getty welcome military analyst Mike Lyons for a deep-dive into the challenges ahead in potential peace negotiations, U.S. and European involvement, Putin’s motivations, and broader military strategy, including technological shifts in warfare and U.S.-China naval competition.

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Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Diplomatic Crossroads in Ukraine (03:14–08:43)

• The "Hard Part" Begins:
  Negotiations have reached a critical, complicated juncture following diplomatic meetings and security guarantee proposals.
• Redrawing Borders:
  • Lyons notes the grim reality that Ukrainian President Zelensky may have to accept territorial losses:

    "I think Zelensky has come to the conclusion that he's going to lose territory and Russia does already occupy." (05:22, Mike Lyons)

  • The process will be complicated as Ukrainian domestic politics may resist any official ceding of land to Russia.
• Stalemate and Ceasefire Complexity:
  Despite diplomatic efforts, Lyons remains skeptical about a near-term breakthrough, highlighting ongoing Russian attacks on civilians and insufficient Western leverage over Putin.

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2. Security Guarantees and Risks for Escalation (06:17–07:45)

• Troop Commitments & NATO Dynamics:
  Discussion centers on the difference between NATO forces and individual European nations deploying troops, and the political tightrope of avoiding direct U.S. boots on the ground.
  • Lyons references the Dayton Accords as a point of caution and historical context.
  • He underscores the importance of not just guaranteeing security, but visibly backing it with sufficient combat power:

    "20 to 30,000 troops of French and British troops are going to need logistical support, and they're going to have to be enough of a threat that would keep Russia at bay." (07:21, Mike Lyons)

• Trump’s Position:
  Trump pledges no U.S. boots on the ground in Ukraine, opting to rely on European partners and air/security support.

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3. Putin’s Incentive to Negotiate (07:45–09:00)

• Lack of Pressure on Putin:
  Lyons argues that existing sanctions and Western pressure are insufficient:

  "I don't think he has much yet, and I think that we should have already put the sanctions on. And I think the Biden administration wasted all of their time." (08:00, Mike Lyons)

• Putin’s Objectives:
  He sees Putin trying to bide time, weaken Zelensky politically, and potentially destabilize Ukraine further.

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4. The Human Cost and Russian Resolve (08:43–09:37)

• Casualty Figures & Russian Control:
  The conversation covers startling battlefield losses:

  "Russia, 20,000 dead last month, a million, over a million casualties at this point, and tens of thousands of Ukrainians dead. It's just shocking that this is going on..." (08:43, Political Analyst)

  • Lyons highlights Putin’s ability to suppress domestic dissent and conscript from Russia’s vast regions:

    "He's able to pick different Russian tribes still out and send them to the battlefield, into the meat grinder." (09:23, Mike Lyons)

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5. Naval Power & the U.S.-China Rivalry (09:37–10:49)

• Shipbuilding Deficit:
  Lyons acknowledges the U.S. is behind China in shipbuilding productivity and infrastructure, but is hopeful due to growing recognition and political momentum for correction:

  "China, though, has gotten well out in front of the United States when it comes to docks and it comes to the automation that they have...We just haven't prioritized. But I think you'll see more emphasis..." (10:09, Mike Lyons)

  • He reveals a personal stake:

    "I've got a son in the Navy, so I'm vested in what happens here." (10:38, Mike Lyons)

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6. Technological Transformation: Drones and AI in Battlefield Warfare (10:49–12:16)

• U.S. Military’s Rapid Adaptation:
  • The U.S. military is intensely focused on catching up to Ukraine’s innovative use of drones:

    "The complete focus now shifted towards drone technology, adding drones to all of the different training that they're doing." (11:09, Mike Lyons)

  • Drones will become standard issue for infantry, revolutionizing reconnaissance and combat.
  • Lyons describes the coming fusion of AI and drone tech:

    "We're not there yet where they're going to determine the targets. But, you know, the things about the drones... it can hover forever. It can... be selective on targets." (11:52, Mike Lyons)

  • He also mentions collaborating with startups to further advance drone applications.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the "Hard Part" of Peace Negotiations:

  "This is probably the beginning of the beginning, if you're looking for some kind of analogy here."
  (05:15, Mike Lyons)

• On the Perils of ‘Ceasefire Borders’:

  "Ceasefires are where borders have been drawn... You never get that land back. If Ukraine wants any chance of getting any land back... you do not want a ceasefire."
  (13:13, Political Analyst paraphrasing Leon Panetta)

• On Putin's Enduring Power:

  "That’s kind of a Western narrative to try to think that there’s going to be this internal Russian pressure to get Vladimir Putin to stop—that’s just not gonna happen."
  (09:12, Mike Lyons)

• On Drones Changing Warfare:

  "We're going to get to the point where a drone will be part of a basic kit of an infantry soldier, aside from their weapon and canteen and the like."
  (11:18, Mike Lyons)

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Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:14 | Start of in-depth Ukraine/NATO/Putin discussion with Mike Lyons | | 05:13 | Lyons lays out the diplomatic dilemma and border reality | | 06:51 | Security guarantees, European troop involvement, historical parallels | | 08:00 | Lyons on lack of Putin’s incentive to make peace | | 08:43 | Human cost, casualty figures, Russian "meat grinder" tactics | | 09:56 | U.S. shipbuilding deficit vs. China, strategic implications | | 11:06 | Drones, AI, and military technological adaptation | | 13:13 | The risk of ‘frozen’ borders with ceasefires, reference to Leon Panetta |

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Summary for New Listeners

This episode gives a critical, realistic breakdown of the diplomatic impasse in Ukraine, the pitfalls of ceasefires, and the shifting nature of military conflict. Mike Lyons provides grounded, insider analysis, highlighting what’s at stake for Ukraine, the West, and Russia, along with how technological advances and great-power competition are changing the strategic landscape. Anyone interested in modern geopolitics, military affairs, and the real-world implications of high-level diplomacy will find this episode especially informative and thought-provoking.

Transcript

[Mike Lyons]

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[Interviewer]

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[Political Commentator]

So they're not going to be a part of NATO, but we've got the European nations and they'll front loaded and they'll have some of them France and Germany, a couple of them UK they want to have, you know, boots on the ground. Not, not. I don't think it's going to be a problem, to be honest with you. I think, I think Putin is tired of it. I think they're all tired of it. But you never know. We're going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks, that I can tell you, and we're going to see where it all goes. It's possible that he doesn't want to.

[Political Analyst]

Make a deal, that Vladimir Putin is going to continue to commit war crimes, that he has a significant military force that he needs to be stopped and that he is in every sense, use a nautical term here, putting a shot across the bow of the president of the United States. We had to be mindful of that and respond to it with real force and strength. That's James Stravitas on cnn, former NATO commander. And he and Trump somewhat in line there that Putin may just want to keep prosecuting this war. Now, as to boots on the ground and all that sort of stuff, Trump offered up some security guarantees yesterday, including saying the US Will have the back and wanted to clear that up today apparently because just moments ago he said, you have my assurance, no US Boots on the ground in Ukraine. So he has definitively ruled that out.

[Interviewer]

Well, let's discuss all of this with military analyst Mike Lyons, who among his many experiences served as an aide de camp to a general officer in NATO command back in the day. Mike, as we started the show, first of all, greetings it's always good to talk. How are you?

[Mike Lyons]

Hey, guys. Great to be back with you.

[Interviewer]

Thank you. So we started the show today with a discussion of. Okay, in spite of the amazing pictures from the White House and all of the diplomacy and the meetings, and it was really quite something. Now comes the hard part.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah. Yes, for sure. This is probably the beginning of the beginning, if you're looking for some kind of analogy here. And the hard part is going to be getting Russian negotiators to sit down with Ukraine negotiators as well as the United States here trying to figure out how to redraw that map. I think Zelensky has come to the conclusion that he's going to lose territory and Russia does already occupy. They've took it from a military perspective. So. So they've got to figure out what that is. Now, if the Ukraine negotiators or the team that they have on that side, if they think he's going to get that through his. His Congress or his government, then this is all for naught because he doesn't have this power to just give land away in Ukraine. So there's definitely a hard part here. You saw the German chancellor trying to get a cease fire because you wake up this morning and Russia continues to attack civilian targets inside Ukraine. And frankly, I still don't think there's enough leverage being put on Vladimir Putin to want to stop this anytime soon. So I think we've got a ways to go.

[Political Analyst]

So all the talk of security guarantees if Trump or if Putin would agree to some sort of deal, the security guarantees, British troops on the ground, French troops on the ground, and then a backup of the United States. It's interesting that. So one of Putin's red lines is no NATO guarantees. And so Trump's getting around that by, okay, we'll have different. We'll have some of the European countries that are in NATO and have a guarantee with them. But. So what does that all look like to you and how easily could we get pulled into the whole thing?

[Mike Lyons]

Well, I think we'll still provide air cover, air defense systems that we'll still be involved with the security guarantee. But just the boots on the ground is where that thing could get cooked sideways. Quick. Looking for, like, a historical analysis, you go back to the Dayton accords in Bosnia and Serbia when the United States did put boots on the ground inside that country. But they brought a lot of combat power to the battlefield. And I do remember some conversation taking place between the general that ran it and Milosevic himself saying, if you even look sideways at any one of our soldiers, we're going to come and destroy all of you. So the question is, the security guarantee is great. It's just what combat power will they bring to the battlefield? And, you know, 20 to 30,000 troops of French and British troops are going to need logistical support, and they're going to have to be enough of a threat that would keep Russia at bay. So, again, a lot has to be fleshed out when it comes to what that security agreement looks like.

[Interviewer]

And rewinding just a bit back to the topic of Vladimir Putin. Given the reality on the battlefield right now and his goals, how much incentive do you think he has to actually negotiate in a serious way?

[Mike Lyons]

I don't think he has much yet, and I think that we should have already put the sanctions on. And I think the Biden administration wasted all of their time. And, you know, he, the longer he could kind of let this go, it makes, he thinks it makes Zelensky look weak. And eventually his goal was to get rid of him. He's looking for a win here. He'll take the win being the land that he's captured, let's say, inside Ukraine. He didn't get the whole country, but he's going to do other things to try to destroy Zelensky, that's for sure. You know, I don't see this. Menachem Begin, Sadat Jimmy Carter moment, the three of them, Putin, Trump and Zelensky, you know, shaking hands and raising their, you know, signing some peace agreement. I think we're, we're away from that man.

[Political Analyst]

Just stepping back and looking at for a moment, the idea that Russia, 20,000 dead last month, a million, over a million casualties at this point, and tens of thousands of Ukrainians dead. It's just shocking that this is going on, isn't it?

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah. It just shows you the level of control he has over the country. Right. Russia, with 11 time zones and enclaves and all these different areas, and the fact that he can control the message and the fact that there hasn't been revolution, there hasn't been anything that's come from Russian mothers. I mean, that's kind of a Western narrative to try to think that there's going to be this internal Russian pressure to get Vladimir Putin to stop that, that's just not gonna happen. He's able to pick different Russian tribes still out and send them to the battlefield, into the meat grinder, fundamentally to their death. And then he'll continue to do that because they have four times the amount of people that Ukraine Does.

[Interviewer]

Mike Lyons, military analyst, is on the line. Mike, before we let you go, I've been reading a fair amount about our incredible deficit in shipbuilding and capacity for growth of our navies compared to China. What. How dire is that situation in your mind?

[Mike Lyons]

It's bad. I think we have time to catch up. The fact that we recognize that it's a problem, I think this administration does recognize it is an issue. The question has always been the maritime capability of moving equipment across from the United States to where combat will take place, which is why this pivot to the Pacific is so important. China, though, has gotten well out in front of the United States when it comes to docks and it comes to the automation that they have and containers and then the like. We just haven't prioritized. But I think you'll see more emphasis as navies project power. This is both realpolitik and gunboat diplomacy has still, is still very much in vogue in the way the world works right now. So I'm concerned about it. I got a son in the Navy, so I'm vested in what happens here. But I do believe that we're moving in the right direction.

[Interviewer]

I had one more question. It's back to Ukraine. Sorry for the jumbled order here, but one of the great headlines from that battlefield is the use of drones and automated tools and weapons and that sort of thing. What do you hear from our own defense establishment? How hard are we working at keeping up with that technology?

[Mike Lyons]

It's incredible the amount of things that are taking place in the AI drone space. I know at the military academy, the complete focus now shifted towards drone technology, adding drones to all of the different training that they're doing. We're going to get to the point where a drone will be part of a basic kit of an infantry soldier, aside from their weapon and canteen and the like.

[Interviewer]

Wow.

[Mike Lyons]

The technology, yeah, it's either from an intel gathering perspective, dropping grenade or whatever. There are so many things that have changed warfare that we've learned and we're going to continue to move that forward. But I know at the military academy in particular, there's so much focus plus working. I'm working with some, a lot of startup companies that are looking to create different missions for these different kinds of drones and doing a lot of different things. And you lay the artificial intelligence over that, you know, we're not there yet where that they're going to determine the targets. But you know, the things about the drones and the, and the AI is that, you know, it can hover forever. It can take a lot of time and can be selective on targets. And it's really changing the way that the battlefield, the commanders have to look at the battlefield.

[Interviewer]

You ought to follow him on X at Major Mike Lyons. Mike, always great to talk. Thanks so much for the insight.

[Mike Lyons]

Great guy. Thanks for having me.

[Interviewer]

Thank you.

[Political Analyst]

So Trump said this yesterday. Putin. Trump says Putin agreed to accept security guarantees. What? I just don't believe that and I don't understand why Trump believes it or if Trump believes. And maybe he's just going along for now to see if Trump, if Putin backs that up or not.

[Interviewer]

But the presumptive close, he accepted some security guarantees, so I'm sure he'll accept these security guarantees.

[Political Analyst]

But I heard this on Friday and I forgot to mention it yesterday. I think this is huge. Leon Panetta was on one of the shows, I think on cnn. He's one, he's been one of my favorite Democrats my, my whole life. And he was Obama's Sec Def and CIA director. He said, I was happy that there was not a ceasefire. Ceasefires are where borders have been drawn.

[Guest/Caller]

All around the world.

[Political Analyst]

You have a ceasefire, the border's frozen. You never get that land back. If Ukraine wants any chance of getting any land back or wants different borders than what they are now, you do not want a ceasefire. And I haven't heard anybody else say that, but that's clearly true.

[Interviewer]

Well, the problem is that Russia is on the front foot. So I could see Ukraine saying, yeah, let's freeze them now before we lose those four critical defensive cities in the east. But why would Russia agree to that? Because they don't want to spend all those lives. Machine gun fodder. No, they're spending them willy nilly.

[Political Analyst]

Yeah, but the idea that the borders get locked in place on a ceasefire, I didn't hear anybody else bring up the entire weekend other than Leon Panetta. And that is what happens lots of times seen see Korea.

[Interviewer]

How's that differ, though, from a more extensive peace settlement? Might have better borders, I guess.

[Political Analyst]

Yeah, you can argue over where the border is going to be. You do the ceasefire and it just gets locked there. All the troops get lined up, you know, to enforce the ceasefire and he just, you never move the borders again.

[Interviewer]

So read a great piece about US Russian relations that mentioned the big Armenian Azerbaijani agreement the other day that I'd thought, oh, that's nice. They're not killing each other. That was a major blow to Putin.

[Political Analyst]

Didn't know that.

[Interviewer]

Yeah, yeah, we'll get to that in a little bit. The drive by inch deep analysis of Trump's foreign policy misses a lot and Trump makes me nuts, but there's a.

[Political Analyst]

Lot going on, man. There is some AI therapy stories out there that we should discuss. That's it's its own interesting realm and world. You should be aware of this, especially if your kids are doing it on their own. I don't know how you stomp them, but anyway, we got a whole bunch of things to talk about today. Stay here.

[Podcast Host]

Armstrong and Getty.

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[Political Analyst]

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[Mike Lyons]

This is an I Heart podcast.