Repairable Deterrence. Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

Summary

Podcast Summary: Armstrong & Getty On Demand Episode: Repairable Deterrence. Mike Lyons Talks to A&G
Date: July 10, 2026
Host: Armstrong & Getty
Guest: Mike Lyons, Military Analyst

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Overview

This episode focuses on the renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran. Armstrong & Getty host military analyst Mike Lyons to break down the latest escalatory strikes, U.S. military strategy, regional implications, and the potential for further international involvement. The discussion explores the logic behind U.S. targeting decisions, the role of allied support, the regional response, and the risks of a protracted conflict.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Latest Escalation: U.S. and Iran (01:06 – 02:35)

• The U.S. launched its most intense strikes yet in response to Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, hitting approximately 60 Revolutionary Guard small boats and various coastal and air defense targets.
• Iran retaliated by launching strikes into neighboring Kuwait and Bahrain, with reports of up to 85 targets hit, though details remain unconfirmed.

2. U.S. Military Response: "Repairable Deterrence" (02:35 – 04:08)

• Mike Lyons: The recent U.S. strikes mark a departure from previous tit-for-tat responses, representing a significant escalation.

• Target Selection: U.S. forces hit air defense systems, command and control networks, and radar sites—key elements of Iranian military infrastructure.

• Lyons introduces the concept of "repairable deterrence": targeting quasi-military revenue sources that are critical but can be rebuilt, aiming to set Iran back while preserving options for future diplomatic resolution.

  "I'm for this, you know, this repairable deterrence—going after some of their revenue capabilities but not necessarily destroying, you know, entire oil fields ... but set them back when it comes to trying to raise revenue."
  —Mike Lyons [03:30]

• Armstrong asks: Was this a "love tap" or a major hit? Lyons says the strikes were serious with room for further escalation.

3. The Prospect of Widening Operations (04:08 – 05:02)

• Reporting suggests President Trump considered forcefully reopening the Strait by military means, but was previously talked out of it by Saudi Arabia.
• Lyons notes that a larger U.S. presence would require additional destroyers and cruisers, emphasizing the persistent threat from Iranian coastal defenses.

4. NATO and International Support (05:02 – 06:21)

• NATO's Stance: After initial hesitation, NATO leaders now publicly support the U.S. response.

• Trump and NATO Dynamics: Lyons observes that Dutch leader Mark Rutte has successfully managed relations with Trump, contrasting with attempts by leaders like Macron and Starmer.

  "Mark Forte's influence on Trump, to me, is a masterclass ... He validates them publicly ... He's kind of a Trump whisperer when it comes to that."
  —Mike Lyons [05:25]

5. The Challenge of Military Whipsaw and Unfinished Business (06:21 – 07:16)

• Armstrong points out Trump is live-talking about potentially reinstating a blockade.

• Lyons warns the rapid policy shifts ("whipsawing") are hard for the military to manage and suggests the initial campaign was prematurely ended; U.S. forces need a clear and decisive victory for effective deterrence.

  "We gave the President enough leverage to start to talk ... but I think those in the military, we felt that it really wasn't finished."
  —Mike Lyons [06:36]

6. Risks and Worst-Case Scenarios (07:16 – 08:48)

• Armstrong brings up failure to progress on nuclear negotiations, the war's original focus.

• Lyons: The most dangerous scenario is internal collapse in Iran, resulting in a humanitarian crisis that the U.S. could be blamed for. He warns about possible involvement by China, reinforcing that regional states must stay strong and support the U.S. position.

  "The real challenge would be more inside of Iran. Humanitarian crisis, 90 million people ... And if the Iranian government collapses, how do they do that?"
  —Mike Lyons [08:19]

7. Iran’s Military Capabilities and External Support (08:48 – 09:45)

• Armstrong asks if Iran rebuilt its arsenal with help from China and Russia.

• Lyons explains Iran had extensive stockpiles, much of it hidden and now deployed—not necessarily replenished with foreign help. The scale of Iran's missile capacity is highlighted as a persistent challenge.

  "They always had tens of thousands of missiles ... it's the fact that it just shows you the level of ballistic missile capability."
  —Mike Lyons [09:23]

8. Regional Players and the Prospect of Support (09:45 – 10:33)

• Armstrong wonders if Gulf states, frequently targeted by Iran, will actively join the conflict.

• Lyons emphasizes the deep-rooted sectarian and geopolitical complications (Sunni-Shia divide) which impede unified involvement from neighboring states.

  "You can't change the geography. ... Qatar and the UAE are doing what they can to avoid the straits ... but the politics are just not what we're used to."
  —Mike Lyons [10:01]

9. Closing Exchange and Perspectives on Iran’s Leadership (10:33 – 11:58)

• Armstrong expects to speak with Lyons again as events develop.

• In a candid, unscripted moment, Armstrong and Lyons outright disparage the Iranian leadership.

  Armstrong: "They're scum." [11:04]
  Lyons: "You know what scum is? They're scum. They're sick people." [11:05]
  Armstrong: "They're led by sick people." [11:08]
  Lyons: "There's something wrong with them." [11:11]

  • Armstrong reflects on the failed ceasefire MoU, Trump’s mercurial rhetoric, and frustration with ongoing negotiations.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Precision and escalation:

  "This is not a proportional response back. This is not a tit for tat ... I do believe now it just gets back to ... command and control networks, the coastal radar sites, those are so key."
  —Mike Lyons [02:35]

• The challenge of unfinished conflict:

  "We gave the President enough leverage to start to talk ... but I think those in the military, we felt that it really wasn't finished."
  —Mike Lyons [06:36]

• On U.S. military logic:

  "I'm for this ... repairable deterrence—going after some of their revenue capabilities but not necessarily destroying ... set them back."
  —Mike Lyons [03:30]

• Lyons on Iran's stockpile:

  "All they're doing now is just deploying those that are out there ... it just shows you the level of ballistic missile capability."
  —Mike Lyons [09:23]

• Armstrong & Lyons on Iran's leadership:

  Armstrong: "They're scum."
  Lyons: "They're sick people. There's something wrong with them."
  [11:04–11:12]

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Important Timestamps

• 01:06 – News update: U.S. and Iranian escalation
• 02:35 – Lyons on scale & purpose of U.S. strikes
• 03:30 – Introduction of "repairable deterrence"
• 05:25 – NATO dynamics and Trump management
• 06:36 – Military campaign’s “unfinished” business
• 07:45 – Lyons on worst-case scenarios
• 09:23 – Iran’s missile arsenal revealed
• 10:01 – Gulf states’ complex roles
• 11:04 – Armstrong & Lyons’ blunt assessment of Iranian leadership

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Summary

This lively episode offers a deep dive into the evolving U.S.–Iran conflict, with sharp, practical insight from military analyst Mike Lyons. The dialogue explores the U.S. approach to escalation, the calculus behind “repairable deterrence,” and the strategic complexity of the region. The conversation is punctuated with candid remarks and clear-eyed assessments—balancing military realities with the unpredictable pace of political events. For listeners seeking to understand the current crisis, the logic of U.S. actions, and the uncertain path ahead, this episode provides essential clarity with an engaging, unsparing tone.

Transcript

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[News Reporter]

The US Response has increased intensity. Eight times as many targets were hit compared to the last time the US Responded to Iran firing on ships in the Strait. The targets include some 60 Revolutionary Guards small boats. CENTCOM also says the strikes included defense systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites and anti ship capabilities. And we have video of the US Strikes hitting hitting in Bandar Abbas. Iran responded by firing into their neighbors Kuwait and Bahrain. The official Iranian news agency claims to have hit some 85 targets in those countries. Details on the number of targets are not confirmed by other sources, but sirens sounded in Kuwait and Bahrain.

[Armstrong]

Now this isn't a rerun. We aren't still on vacation. You're listening to old shows. We are back and this is new. We are back at war with Iran. It would seem Iran struck several ships in the Strait, violating the mou. According to Trump, which he says is now dead. We hit Iran pretty hard. I guess we'll find out how hard when we ask Mike Lyons here in a second. And then Iran struck the countries around them as they like to do. Where it goes from now, I do not know. Welcome Mike Lyons to the Armstrong and Getty show again. Mike served with various military organizations in both the United States and Europe throughout his career. Got his degree from the United States Military Academy at West Point. Hey Mike, what did you think of the how big a deal was this? How hard a strike was this? Just a like a little love tap, A let you know we're still paying attention or did we hit them hard?

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, thanks for having me back. I've always thought that this has been the end of escalation management from the very beginning. So I published an article in the Wall Street Journal about that. And centcom is reporting 80 targets hit with precision munitions. So this is not a proportional response back. This is not a tit for tat what we had been doing in the past. And so I think that that's a good sign. I do believe now it just gets back to, you know, one of those targets. It looks like Iranian air defense systems command and control networks, the coastal radar sites, those are so key. It looks like some of their anti ship missile capabilities now are more out in the open. And Iran Revolutionary Guard corps, I mean the small boats, you know, it just shows you the target rich environment. It is from a military perspective when we stop, probably stops too soon. And it looks like our response back is diffic.

[Armstrong]

Well, Trump just said a few minutes ago we're probably gonna hit him hard again tonight. So you're saying there's plenty of stuff to hit?

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, no question. And I think, you know, you've got to figure out a way still to, you know, make sure that it's, it's not completely destroyed when the country's, you know, when we finally move this thing forward. And so I'm for this, you know, this repairable deterrence going after some of their revenue capabilities but not necessarily destroying, you know, entire oil fields and entire things. But they're quasi military targets. That would make them very easy to repair when the time comes, but set them back when it comes to trying to raise revenue and things like that. So there's still many military targets to hit, many to go after, and we're at the cleanup phase of that now, I think.

[Armstrong]

So there was some reporting over the weekend that Trump had decided a while back we were going to use our military and force that straight back open. And Saudi Arabia talked him out of it. So I guess that still might be on the table if Iran's not willing to stop firing on ships.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, that would really ramp up with our off tempo, the pace that our military is working. We'd have to bring maybe some more destroyers and cruisers into the region. Even though we have three carrier strike groups right now, they're more focused on the aircraft and the carrier themselves. But that's a mission that we could do. It could take months, but it means really softening up any of the coastal batteries that seem to exist that are there. The fact that they can get off any shots whatsoever, either using drones or any kind of precision munitions just shows they still have this capability.

[Armstrong]

Well, Trump's over there talking to all the NATO leaders. The big NATO meeting and the NATO Secretary General said this morning that what the United States did was perfectly appropriate, had to be done. I mean, and that's not the way NATO's really been talking about, about this whole Iran operation the whole time. So is there any chance we get any help from any of our NATO allies on this at this point?

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah. Mark Forte's influence on Trump, to me, is a masterclass on how to manage him. Right. All these other NATO leaders just can't manage Trump. Right. Macron thinks he's smarter than him. The Germans try to be more technical. Let's say Keir Starmer, he failed miserably. But I think Rutaz cracks the code. He validates them publicly. As soon as Trump got on with that, the MOU was over. Rute couldn't say it any quicker. I'm with you in the same breath. Right. So very clearly he's kind of a Trump whisperer when it comes to that. Now, the downside is that he's really only managing him. He's not, you know, maybe not advising him, but he at least speaks his language. He's not trying to be Macron. He's not trying to be some other leader that's trying to be Trump's peer. He lets kind of Trump be Trump. And I think from what we are right now, I think that's still a good thing. I think it's a good thing for NATO. I think it's going to keep well inside of NATO.

[Armstrong]

You know, Trump's talking as we're talking to you, so he's saying more things like we may put the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz back in place. So we might be back, right back to where we were two and a half weeks ago by the end of tonight.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah. The whipsawing is challenging for the military going back and forth again. The blockade just means repositioning some of those ships. I think most of the military community that I had spoken to didn't think we had finished the job, so to speak. We. We gave the President enough leverage to start to talk. I think he needed that for making sure that oil prices didn't go crazy, and he was keeping one eye on the politics of this. But I think those in the military, we felt that it really wasn't finished. That this campaign should have gone on longer than 37 days is really what it went on for. It should have went on at least 45, even 60. It should have had a better logical conclusion with a clear sign of U.S. victory.

[Armstrong]

Well, the Wall Street Journal is reporting today is that they were making no progress whatsoever, like zero on the whole details around nuclear weapons, which is what the whole war was about. So. Yeah, which doesn't surprise me in the least. So what's the worst case scenario? Worst case scenario obviously is that Iran gets a nuclear weapon. But we, we prosecute this war, we continue to go forward and put pressure on us. What, what should we watch out for that could go wrong?

[Mike Lyons]

Well, you know, they had some kind of internal revolution and you have this humanitarian crisis that exists inside because the country, because it implodes. The United States gets blamed for that or something. I think, I don't think we have to worry about, you know, there's potentially going to hit some of our military targets. But there's not a situation that I could see that we're in trouble now. Unless the Chinese decide to enter the picture. If they decide, which I think should have been part of the MOU anyway. I think that we should have made sure that no other countries were going to come in and assist Iran. That MoU is all front loaded for the Iranians. It was, you know, all the United States activities were on the backside of it. And we don't want the Chinese in there, we don't want any other countries in there. And we also need stronger Gulf states to make sure that they're focused on making sure we take this to the end. But, but what goes wrong? I think the real challenge would be more inside of Iran. Humanitarian crisis, 90 million people, it's a lot to feed and keep water. And if the Iranian government collapses, how do they do that?

[Armstrong]

Yeah, that's a good point. So also part of the Wall Street Journal reporting today was that Iran has gotten back a fair amount of their capability. Was that with the help of China and Russia that they rebuilt all that stuff.

[Mike Lyons]

I think they just basically took it out of the mountains and they had a lot to begin with. And again from a scale perspective, they still can't deploy hundreds at a time. But when you have a lot, when you sneak, take a thousand rockets, let's say, or a thousand missiles and hide them in the mountains and hide them in places. If you look at the geography of Iran, easy to do and all that they're doing now is just deploying those that are out there. So that's where they're more targets for us to kind of go after. I think that's really what happened. There's no industrial capability to Fix anything that's not really on, on the table. It's the fact that it just shows you the level of ballistic missile capability. They always had tens of thousands of missiles that they had read that had built and been ready for this fight.

[Armstrong]

Are any of those countries surrounding Iran that keep getting hit by the Iranians gonna finally, like, really join us in this battle?

[Mike Lyons]

Well, that's another great question. And it just shows you how Middle Eastern politics are more in some ways based on religion. A lot of it has to do with that, the Shia, Sunni divide that exists in that part of the world. And so you can't change the geography. Right. I mean, Qatar and the UAE are doing what they can to avoid the straits. They're building tunnels and things like that, but they should have been building them before the Saudis already did that. They've got a pipeline going, going to the Red Sea. But the politics are just not what we're used to. And they have to, they recognize that they are what they are.

[Armstrong]

Well, I have a feeling there's a chance we might be talking to you again later this week after a couple of more rounds of strikes in Iran. Mike Lyons, military analyst. You can follow him on Twitter. AJA is in. Major M A J. Mike Lyons. I go there whenever something happens to see what you thought about it. Thanks, Mike.

[Mike Lyons]

Thanks for having me.

[Armstrong]

The war's back on, I think, clearly. Well, let's play this just because we got a moment.

[Mike Lyons]

To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore.

[Armstrong]

They're scum.

[Mike Lyons]

You know what scum is? They're scum. They're sick people.

[Armstrong]

They're led by sick people.

[Mike Lyons]

There's something wrong with them.

[Armstrong]

They're cuckoo. As far as I'm concerned, it's over that. He was asked about the MoU, the memorandum of understanding that, you know, brought about the 60 day cease fire and they get their money back before we start the nuclear talks, which never happened. Shock, shock, shock. Trump saying, it's over, they're cuckoo. It's over. I hope he means it because he says this sort of stuff about Putin or the mullahs or the irgc and then, you know, by the end of the day, he'll say, no, he talked to do a guy and he sounds like he's, it's really exciting. JD Van Toe will come out and say, you know, it's really cool. Is they, they, they now understand that they've been doing the wrong thing all these years, which was just the lamest thing that has ever come out of J.D. vance's mouth.

[Orderly Meds Advertiser]

Oh, Armstrong and Getty. Summer is here. At Orderly Meds, we know this time is a reminder that life is full of new beginnings. Whether you're celebrating the nice weather, starting a new chapter, planning a vacation, or simply looking ahead to what's next, this season can be the perfect time to invest in yourself and your health. If you've struggled with weight loss and are curious about GLP1 medications, orderly meds can help you learn about your options. Through a simple virtual process, you can connect with licensed medical professionals who can determine whether treatment may be appropriate for you. Getting started is fast, convenient, and happens online from the comfort of home. This summer, consider a new approach to feeling your best. Visit Orderly Meds to learn more. That's orderlymeds.com podcast orderlymeds.com podcast because every new season is an opportunity to take the next step forward, compounded medications are not FDA approved, eligibility required and determined by a licensed provider. Individual results may vary. See website for details.