That Freaks Me Out, Man

Summary

Podcast Summary: Armstrong & Getty On Demand – Episode: “That Freaks Me Out, Man”

Release Date: November 21, 2024

Host: Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty

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1. Introduction to Current Events

The episode kicks off with hosts Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty delving into a myriad of contemporary issues, blending humor with serious analysis. They navigate through topics ranging from pop culture to intricate geopolitical concerns, ensuring a dynamic and engaging discussion for listeners.

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**2. “Wicked” Movie Review and Pop Culture Commentary

Discussion on the Movie “Wicked”

Jack and Joe begin by discussing the upcoming release of the movie adaptation of the musical “Wicked,” a reimagining of “The Wizard of Oz.” They express mixed feelings about its reception and potential impact.

• Joe Getty (00:52): Highlights the confusion surrounding movie reviews, humorously noting mismatched critiques.

• Jack Armstrong (02:08): Considers taking the movie to his family, acknowledging differing tastes within his household.

Notable Quote:

• Jack Armstrong (02:22): “Wicked is a reimagining of the wizard of Oz movie. Correct. And it's supposed to be really cool. So I might actually take the kids to that.”

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3. War Games Simulation: US vs. China Over Taiwan

Analysis of Recent Pentagon War Games

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to discussing the Pentagon's recent war games simulation, which assesses the potential outcome of a conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan. The hosts dissect the findings and their implications.

• Joe Getty (03:01): Introduces the topic by referencing a new report briefing Congress on a hypothetical war scenario.

• Jack Armstrong (29:05): Provides detailed insights into the simulation results, emphasizing the staggering shipbuilding capacity of China compared to the US.

Key Points Discussed:

• Military Readiness: The US is not currently operating at a wartime footing, whereas China’s defense industrial base is.

• Simulation Outcomes: High casualties and significant loss of naval assets on both sides, with China potentially losing 90% of its amphibious fleet.

• Strategic Implications: The necessity for the US to make immediate and decisive commitments in the event of conflict, contrasting with the Ukraine model of gradual escalation.

Notable Quotes:

• Jack Armstrong (30:38): “China has twice the shipbuilding capacity. I'm sorry, 20 times. No, 230 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States. That is shocking.”

• Joe Getty (33:18): “Yeah, Right, Right. And we can make our own chips eventually. Et cetera, et cetera. Not our issue.”

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4. California’s Minimum Wage Referendum

Economic Impacts of Raising Minimum Wage

Jack and Joe transition to discussing California's recent referendum where voters narrowly rejected a proposition to raise the state minimum wage to $18 per hour. They analyze the consequences of this decision on both workers and businesses.

• Joe Getty (04:10): Criticizes government-mandated minimum wages, arguing they harm the economy and job market.

• Jack Armstrong (05:09): Explains the specific carve-out for Panera and its implications on fast food workers.

Key Findings from Employment Policies Institute of California:

• Price Increases: Majority of restaurants raised menu prices by 98% to offset wage hikes.

• Staff Reductions:

  • 89% reduced employee hours.
  • 73% decreased staff numbers.
  • 70% consolidated positions, effectively resulting in layoffs.

• Economic Consequences:

  • Net job loss of approximately 4,400 positions since January.
  • Fast food job growth rate is the worst since the Great Recession.

Notable Quotes:

• Joe Getty (07:12): “What percentage of fast food restaurants reduced employee hours? 89%. 89. Limited employee shift to pickup or overtime rules. 73% or just flat reduced staff 70% as the result of the minimum wage law? Wow.”

• Jack Armstrong (11:00): “4,500 people or so now have no job at all. Because of this, many, many thousands have fewer hours and have had to pick up another job.”

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5. Political Developments: Matt Gaetz Withdraws from Attorney General Race

Analysis of Matt Gaetz’s Withdrawal

The hosts cover the unexpected withdrawal of Rep. Matt Gaetz from consideration for the Attorney General position, speculating on the reasons behind his exit and its implications for the Trump administration.

• Joe Getty (20:40): Announces Gaetz’s decision to drop out and withdraw his name.

• Jack Armstrong (25:00): Discusses potential behind-the-scenes factors influencing Gaetz's withdrawal, including strong opposition from Republican senators.

Key Insights:

• Senatorial Opposition: Majority of Republican senators opposed Gaetz, making his confirmation unlikely.

• Media Influence: Speculation that continuous negative media coverage played a role in his decision to withdraw.

• Party Dynamics: Gaetz's withdrawal potentially benefits the administration by clearing a controversial candidate from the spotlight.

Notable Quotes:

• Jack Armstrong (25:00): “Rep. Matt Gaetz accompanied VP Elect JD Vance across the Capitol, meeting with Republican senators to win their support for his confirmation… Many senators in both parties have expressed concern over the choice of Mr. Gaetz to lead the Justice Department.”

• Joe Getty (23:23): “I don’t think these Republican senators would have said, hey, I like you, but I’m a no vote. They would have said, I hate you, and there’s no way I’m allowing you to be Attorney General.”

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6. Aztec Death Whistle and Historical Insights

Exploration of Aztec Culture and Rituals

In a lighter yet eerie segment, the hosts delve into the history of the Aztecs, focusing on their use of the death whistle during human sacrifice ceremonies. They discuss archaeological findings and psychological impacts of the whistle's sound.

• Jack Armstrong (15:18): Shares his experiences visiting Aztec sites and learning about their sacrificial practices.

• Joe Getty (16:14): Describes psychological experiments conducted with replicas of the death whistle, noting its unsettling effect on listeners.

Notable Quotes:

• Joe Getty (16:04): “They would sacrifice, for instance, warriors from other tribes that they conquered, or they could sacrifice their own people to various gods and everything like that.”

• Jack Armstrong (17:13): “Imagine if you had a whole bunch of people blowing that at the same time. Oh, my God.”

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7. Final Thoughts and Holiday Reflections

Closing Remarks with Humor and Personal Anecdotes

As the episode nears its end, Jack and Joe share final thoughts, blending humor with personal stories related to the upcoming holiday season. They discuss weight gain during holidays, family gatherings, and lighter aspects of their lives to wrap up the show on a relatable note.

• Joe Getty (37:28): Talks about his experience at a Bourbon Appreciation Society dinner and his humorous take on indulging in desserts.

• Jack Armstrong (37:12): Reflects on setting personal boundaries to manage weight during the holidays.

Notable Quotes:

• Joe Getty (36:22): “As a final thought, Katie, I'm gonna get my hands on one of those Aztec death whistles and just blow it whenever somebody's bothering me.”

• Jack Armstrong (37:29): “Armstrong and Getty wrapping up another grueling four-hour workday.”

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8. Conclusion

Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty effectively blend serious analysis of economic policies and geopolitical threats with lighthearted commentary on pop culture and personal anecdotes. Their candid discussions provide listeners with a comprehensive understanding of current events, balanced with humor and relatable experiences.

Final Notable Quote:

• Jack Armstrong (38:31): “This feels like a red alert moment for democracy.”

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End of Summary

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Note: All timestamps correspond to the provided transcript and are for reference purposes only.

Transcript

[Joe Getty]

Now.

[Jack Armstrong]

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[Joe Getty]

Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty. Armstrong and Getty. And now he's Armstrong and Getty.

[Unknown Guest]

Wicked hits theaters tomorrow. Big deal. And so far the movie is getting rave reviews. They're very interesting though. Check out what they said. For instance, this review said, magical and uplifting. And Hang on, that's actually a review for the shrooms your cousin brings to Thanksgiving. Sorry. This next review called it the tale of two people whose paths never should have crossed. Hang on, that's actually a review for Mike Tyson versus Jake Paul. This is a mistake. I'm so sorry. Here's another this review said Oz is back. This is insane. Don't get ahead of a review for Trump putting Dr. Oz in charge of Medicare. That's you did have applied.

[Joe Getty]

He is a likable guy. He is Fallon.

[Jack Armstrong]

So Seinfeld says Fallon is the most normal person he's ever met in show business, which always sticks in my head. I find that very interesting. So Wicked is a reimagining of the wizard of Oz movie. Correct. And it's supposed to be really cool. So I might actually take the kids to that. I mean, my high schooler will hate it, but he hates everything. So what are you gonna do?

[Joe Getty]

You had the novel Wicked and then you had the musical, and this is yet a different mutation of it that I don't think resembles the novel much, but I don't know. So I only bring that up because I thought the novel was fantastic.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, you did.

[Joe Getty]

Interesting.

[Jack Armstrong]

Okay, cool. Well, then the movie might be good. It's got a.

[Joe Getty]

Or it might be wildly different.

[Jack Armstrong]

It's got a ton of big stars in it. Which is why on Saturday Night Live they did a sketch about the screen tests for Wicked and all the different people who had tried out for it. I meant to grab this audio, but I never did. But. So one of them was Bernie Sanders Trying out for a part in Wicked. And it's Bernie Sanders says the wizard has millions and billions of dollars, while meanwhile the munchkins are living paycheck to paycheck.

[Joe Getty]

That's beautif.

[Jack Armstrong]

I thought that was hilarious. Yeah.

[Joe Getty]

Good. Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, coming up, we did one of those war game simulation thingies, which I don't know how they work or how accurate they are, but the Pentagon does it to see if we could win a war, for instance, against China if China tries to take Taiwan. And they briefed Congress on that yesterday, and some of the results are horrifying. So stay tuned.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, I actually read something a couple of weeks ago about a father and son, I think they're Brits, that came up with a computer game that was like the game Risk, but not so boring and long. But it was essentially war gaming. A war gaming computer game where you would assign assets and weapons systems and move it around and employ different strategies and stuff like that. And it's so good. And it became so good, they're now teaching it at, like, the U.S. war College at West Point, and they use it to War Game, which is really a story, I think, about private enterprise and the amazing things you can do with little innovation.

[Jack Armstrong]

There's a major caveat to this report. Major. Like so major, it makes you wonder, why even read the report. But stay tuned.

[Joe Getty]

Okay, all right, fair enough. So we have been trying to help people understand for a long time about how artificially mandated minimum wages, essentially the government mandating, let's see, for that work you shall pay them that amount is a terrible idea. It's bad for workers, it's bad for business, it's bad for the economy. And that's just not the way the labor market works. And it causes real damage. And the fabulous Katie Grimes of the California Globe is writing about this, and she's. It came up because Californians, shockingly, for the first time ever, rejected a minimum wage referendum, a proposition, and it was rejected fairly narrowly, but it would have raised the state minimum wage to 18 bucks for everything.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow.

[Joe Getty]

Now non Californians are saying, well, didn't. Didn't y'all raise it to 20 bucks? No, that was just for fast food workers for some reason. Actually, the reason is because the Service Employees International Union wants to unionize fast food work.

[Jack Armstrong]

Fast food that doesn't serve bread in some capacity. There was a weird carve out for Panera.

[Joe Getty]

One of Gavin's buddies. Yeah, exactly. But anyway, the folks at the Employment Policies Institute of California had took a serious look at what has happened since the increase in the fast food minimum wage. The rejection comes on the heels of California's $20 minimum wage law for fast food workers that seen severe backlash from employees and business owners alike and led to a notable amount of business closures and job. That should be number not amount. You need me as your editor. Anyway, Californians are sending Gavin Newsom in the SEIU a clear message. They're sick of being lab rats for their pet projects, devastating economic fallout, etc. Etc. Here are the specifics. After the implementation of the $20 minimum wage, the EPI survey found that the majority of restaurants say they have the majority. They've raised menu prices 98%. Yes, we've raised menu prices.

[Jack Armstrong]

So they called almost all the majority. Nice writing. Also.

[Joe Getty]

Well, it's. It's. Katie's busy and she's fabulous. Anyway, now the devil's advocate position might be. Well, there's been. There are other reasons for raising prices. You know, inputs, inflation and stuff like that. You're absolutely right. But the idea that labor isn't a significant part of the costs of a fast food restaurant. You don't know anything about fast food restaurants. Anyway. What percentage of fast food restaurants reduced employee hours? This got nothing to do with the price. 89%. 89. Limited employee shift to pickup or overtime rules. 73% or just flat reduced staff 70% as the result of the minimum wage law? Wow.

[Jack Armstrong]

Well, of course. Of course. What. What are you going to do? I mean, I just. I don't. I don't understand. This is one of those where you always say, like, if you had 10 minutes with people, you could have convinced them to vote the other way. If. If you have to pay more for your workers, it's because so many people believe that prices are just like random.

[Joe Getty]

Arbitrarily set.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, they're arbitrarily set. There's no supply and demand curve or anything like that. So the restaurant can just charge more for their hamburgers to cover those costs and the same number of customers will come and eat there. That just doesn't make any sense if you're a child.

[Joe Getty]

Right, right. It really doesn't. And again, it doesn't take a lot of economics training to understand the supply and demand curves and elasticity. What elasticity is anyway has nothing to do with your sweatpants you're wearing there to your Thanksgiving dinner.

[Jack Armstrong]

Michael, what's your favorite example of inelastic product? I have mine from economics in college. Always.

[Joe Getty]

My favorite example, snakebite antivenom.

[Jack Armstrong]

That's a pretty good One salt. You're going to buy the same amount.

[Joe Getty]

Of salt if it was twice as.

[Jack Armstrong]

Much or half as much.

[Joe Getty]

What's twice? Practically nothing. Yeah, but elasticity essentially means the tendency of people to increase or decrease their purchase of it based on price. So if I walk into the hospital and say I just got bit by a rattlesnake, which I've avoided through the years. It's more rare than you think, but there are a lot of rattlesnakes. Anyway, sorry, I just had to kill one not long ago. I meant relocated. I relocated it.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right.

[Joe Getty]

To a farm upstate. Anyway, me and my damn tangents. Oh. If I walk into the hospital and they say, you know, hey, good news, Joe. We've got two for one on rattlesnake antivenom. I'm like, I just need the one.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right.

[Joe Getty]

I'll pay you the 500. And if they said, did we say 500? It just went up to 5,000 and you're going to be dead in half an hour, so you got no time to. To the other hospital. I'm saying five grand it is. Doc, hook me up. There's zero elasticity there. It's. It's one.

[Jack Armstrong]

As opposed to a particular restaurant that raises their prices and you just think, this isn't worth it. And you don't go there anymore. You go to other restaurants or eat home, Right?

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, exactly. You have many, many alternatives anyway, so how about next year? The restaurants surveyed said next year 93% are going to raise their prices again. They'll have to. Wow.

[Jack Armstrong]

Man, I'm glad she wrote about this. I wish more people were aware of this. They should be teaching this in school going forward.

[Joe Getty]

87% said we're going to reduce employee hours even more. 87% reduce staff or consolidate positions. That means fire people. 74%.

[Jack Armstrong]

So three quarters of them are going to reduce people. So your effort to make a better life for employees for a. A whole bunch of them, you made their lives much worse as they no longer have a job.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

Which is like the most. Practically the most. Well, is the most frightening thing that can happen to you, job wise. Losing your job.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah. The best number that the good folks at the Employment Policies Institute can come up with last year as a net job. I'm sorry? Since January is net job loss of 4,400 jobs.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah.

[Joe Getty]

In California.

[Jack Armstrong]

Well, I would like to know, for the cut hours thing, which you said, what was 90% of it? Because employers don't like to fire people.

[Joe Getty]

See.

[Jack Armstrong]

But they probably cut a ton of people's hours.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, yeah. So yeah, 4,500 people or so now have no job at all. Because of this, many, many thousands have fewer hours and have had to pick up another job. Thanks Gavin, you're a real friggin saint. And more to come this year. Almost without a doubt, the state is seeing the first fast with the worst fast food job growth rate since the Great Recession. Anyway, I can't believe the voters were.

[Jack Armstrong]

Into this enough to reject an all out minimum wage raise for everyone. And I thought I read the other day as the first time a minimum wage prop had lost in America since the 90s. Mid-90s. I'm glad people have caught on to this. The way it works, man, if everything had gone up to $18 an hour in California. Whoa, that have been rough.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah. I love the idea of the states being laboratories of democracy. It's a wonderful, wonderful vision. I just, it depends on the lab results being reported accurately to everybody else to hear how it came out and the prejudices of our media. You know, I would like to think if I were staunchly in favor of a policy and it turned out to be a disastrous mistake, I would say so. In fact, I have said so through the years. I can think of a couple of different examples. What's the matter with you moral cowards and you liars who can't you just. I don't know what's wrong with you that you won't say, wow, I was. My intentions were great, honest to God. Because I think a lot of you are. You think this is a good idea to help poor people. You're wrong. That doesn't make you a bad person. But when you won't admit you're wrong and let the damage continue to more and more poor people, that does make you a bad person.

[Jack Armstrong]

But so like Bernie, I think Bernie's completely sincere on this. And he talks about a living wage. How has he not come across the information that if you paid people a wage where they could support their family, you wouldn't have a single restaurant in the country?

[Joe Getty]

Certainly fast food. Yeah, I don't know. I'd love to have that conversation with them.

[Jack Armstrong]

But like my both my kids can't wait till they can work jobs. Unfortunately in modern society you have to be 16. I was working when I was 12, 13, whatever. But my son, who's going to be 15 here soon, can't wait to get a job. Be less like, much less likely to job. If they raise a minimum wage to 18, there'd be that many fewer jobs for people with his skills, which are zero.

[Joe Getty]

Right, right. And actually it occurs to me what Bernie's answer would be. But we don't really have time now, but we'll squeeze it in a bit.

[Jack Armstrong]

This whole war games thing with China is super duper interesting. We got to tell you about if you haven't heard the Aztec death whistle, you won't forget it. You won't forget it.

[Joe Getty]

I don't want to hear it again. It frightened me too badly the first time.

[Jack Armstrong]

Okay, stay tuned.

[Joe Getty]

Armstrong and Getty.

[Maria Konnikova]

I'm Maria Konnikova.

[Nate Silver]

And I'm Nate Silver.

[Maria Konnikova]

And our podcast Risky Business is a show about making better decisions. Both Nate and I are journalists who moonlight as poker players. We've both won and I have to say, lost hundreds of thousands of dollars playing poker. And poker is a lens that we're going to use to approach this entire show. Because poker isn't just about playing cards. It's actually about how to make good decisions. It's an entire framework for thinking about the world.

[Nate Silver]

In addition to poker, we'll be talking about the wide world of gambling. So sports betting, for example, plus the news, politics. It is an election year and personal.

[Maria Konnikova]

Decisions too, like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.

[Nate Silver]

Tune into Risky Business every Thursday.

[Maria Konnikova]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Jack Armstrong]

They want to know how I spent the commercials besides writing down the phone numbers and names of all of our clients.

[Joe Getty]

Been reading up sponsors?

[Jack Armstrong]

Yes, I've been reading up on the Aztecs since we're about to hear a weird sound. The Aztecs, indigenous to Mexico and thriving civilization, city states, Everything very modern. Any like anything Europe had. I've been to the big pyramid there outside of Mexico City. That's bigger. As big as the pyramids in Egypt. It's really quite amazing. But the Aztecs were conquered in 1521 when the Spanish showed up and killed them off. But the Aztecs were into cannibalism and human sacrifice. Just reading. There is a documentation of one site where they believe 80,000 prisoners were sacrificed over four days.

[Joe Getty]

Oh yeah, can you imagine? Sacrificed to prisoners of war?

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, between 1,000 and 20,000 annually at least. But can you imagine 80,000 slayings of humans in four days? Just the organization of that, what it would be like.

[Joe Getty]

Well, and it's thought that during before those rituals they would blow the Aztec death whistle. And archaeologists uncovered this and noticed it was a musical instrument looking thing, but blew through it. Now they blow through 3D replicas of it. So they're not messing with the actual artifacts, but. And then they've done psychological experiments on how people react to this whistle. And if you're listening, if you've been listening, if you're listening to the podcast in the future, first of all, did Elon make it to Mars? The whole trump thing, how'd that work out? Anyway, we played this earlier and people drove off the road, and we apologize for that, but this is the whistle that they would blow during the ceremonies. Oh, my. That freaks me out, man.

[Jack Armstrong]

Imagine if you had a whole bunch of people blowing that at the same time. Oh, my God. Oh.

[Joe Getty]

On each side of you as you're the young boy about to be sacrificed and you got that going on, or did you complete. Oh, please. So I like to haunt my dreams.

[Jack Armstrong]

I've eaten some Aztec food when I was down in Mexico and stuff like that and visited the sites and all the stuff, you know, the blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. But sacrifice and killing. They would sacrifice, for instance, warriors from other tribes that they conquered, or they could sacrifice their own people to various gods and everything like that. But the idea of colonialism and how awful it is and the Spanish came and destroyed their culture and all that sort of thing. You think the Aztecs wouldn't have done that to Spain if they'd have had the right ships and could have done it? Of course they would have. They just slaughtered them by the tens of thousands in the same way they did nearby tribes.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah. And they wouldn't have kept their. Their warriors in nice camps and fed them. They'd fail to feed them into volcanoes and blow the damn death whistle here.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, my God, that's rough. There are some cultures that are better than others. Ours is better than the Aztecs or the Chinese Communist Party, who's hell bent on taking over the world, with one step being taking Taiwan. We did some war games recently on how we would fare in that battle. How did it come out? Well, the report was released yesterday.

[Maria Konnikova]

Armstrong and Getty. I'm Maria Konnikova.

[Nate Silver]

And I'm Nate Silver.

[Maria Konnikova]

And our podcast, Risky Business is a show about making better decisions. Both Nate and I are journalists who moonlight as poker players. We've both won and, I have to say, lost hundreds of thousands of dollars playing poker. And poker is a lens that we're going to use to approach this entire show, because poker isn't just about playing cards. It's actually about how to make good decisions. It's an entire framework for thinking about the world.

[Nate Silver]

In addition to poker, we'll Be talking about the wide world of gambling, so sports betting, for example, plus the news, politics. It is an election year and personal.

[Maria Konnikova]

Decisions, too, like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.

[Nate Silver]

Tune into Risky Business every Thursday.

[Maria Konnikova]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

[News Anchor]

A new escalation. Massive explosions rocking Russia's Kursk region. Ukraine launching at least 10 British made storm Shadow cruise missiles. Ukraine fighting to hold onto a small patch of Russian territory it holds in Kursk to use as leverage. But Russian forces, assisted by thousands of North Korean soldiers, are slowly pushing them back. The US in another policy reversal now allowing Ukraine to use anti personnel landmines to try to slow the Russians down.

[Jack Armstrong]

With the theory being that we're trying to. Or Biden's trying to get Ukraine in the best position for making some sort of deal. I guess. Russia did or didn't fire a ballistic missile today. That'll be sorted out throughout the next hours in a provocative move. But I suppose, well, one, if the war ends, we stop expending a lot of our munitions, which is going to fit in with our next story. But, you know, and people stop dying and then also the opportunity for it to spiral out of control goes way down. If there's a settlement of some sort.

[Joe Getty]

Hey, I think I have breaking news. Breaking news.

[Jack Armstrong]

Easy for me to say. I'm not a Ukrainian who's about to give up 20% of their country to an evil, evil, murderous dictator. But that's probably what's going to happen.

[Joe Getty]

I win. I win. Matt. Matt Gates dropped out.

[Jack Armstrong]

He did.

[Joe Getty]

Withdrawing his name from consideration.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow. Does it say what? What turned the tide? What made the difference? Because, I mean, as of yesterday, he was walking the halls. Although he was walking the halls talking to senators. I wonder if he talked to enough senators that said, Look, I'm 100% of no. 100%. And once he got past four, which is all he could lose, and maybe he got to like 22, who said, I'm an absolute no. No matter what happens, I'm a no.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, yeah. He said he didn't want to be a distraction to the transition. Well, remember I opened the classic, you know, political statement.

[Jack Armstrong]

I didn't predict he was going to drop out, but I did say this morning when we started, like, does the Trump administration want this to be the lead story every day? Because it was a lead story last night, it was a lead story this morning. There's always a new thing. Like it was the canceled checks they found from Gates to the girls, it looks like for the sex and the party and everything I got. They're just going to let Matt Gates be the lead story every news cycle for two months.

[Joe Getty]

Well, there are times you want to defy the media. Um, if they. All right, you make it the number one story, we're gonna win this one. But there are times it's just not worth it.

[Jack Armstrong]

I'll be interested in hearing the reporting, though. What, what, what made the difference?

[Katie Green]

Maybe there was something that was so bad that somebody said, we're gonna let this come out.

[Jack Armstrong]

And he said, okay, could be that could be from that report. There might be. Hey, we know about the. And who knows what that is?

[Joe Getty]

Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

And they let him know. He thought, oh, I didn't think anybody knew about that.

[Joe Getty]

I liked your senator theory more because he and his people have been going around and getting, hey, Matt, I like you, but I'm not gonna die on this Hill just because Biden justice administration investigated the guy for two years, I don't think. And decided not to charge. They would have leaked anything that would damage any Republican.

[Jack Armstrong]

I don't think these Republican senators would have said, hey, I like you, but I'm a no vote. They would have said, I hate you, and there's no way I'm allowing you to be Attorney General. Based on everything I've read, everybody hates him except for, like, three people. Marjorie Taylor Greene and, you know, Nancy Mace, every other member of the House, the Republicans and the House and the senators that are Republicans hate him. Absolutely loathe him. So they might have made that fairly clear.

[Joe Getty]

I wonder.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, I can't wait to read the reporting on that. Well, I think that's good news. I think that's good news for Trump and good things happening. You get somebody who's not so dang controversial and move forward.

[Joe Getty]

Well, and my final comment on this will be. And I think I made this point earlier and I compared it to Rosa Parks being the perfect plaintiff in the Birmingham bus case because she was unimpeachable, unimpugnable as a human being. And Gates is a scumbag and he might have been effective and some of the allegations against him might be exaggerated or even false. But. But he's not a good guy. If you have somebody go into the Justice Department to really strip it down and get rid of the rot, and that person is like, universally respected and is a good scholar and just. You're in so much better position. Way, way, way better. I know you want a bomb chucker, but have it Be a bomb chucker who can't be disregarded for dopey reasons. Again, it's about effectiveness above all else.

[Jack Armstrong]

I don't know if Trump had any role in this whatsoever. If, like, you know, Susan Wiley, Is that her name? If she went to Gates and said, hey, Trump, Trump wants you to get out. Because he gets out now, it'll be forgotten. It'll completely be forgotten. It did no damage whatsoever. It'll be forgotten to history. It's over.

[Joe Getty]

Right.

[Jack Armstrong]

Whereas if you let it drag out over the next couple of months, it could be a really big deal.

[Joe Getty]

Susie Wiles.

[Jack Armstrong]

Susie Wiles. There you go.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah. Here you go. Here you go. Mr. Gates accompanied VP Elect JD Vance across the Capitol, meeting with Republican senators to win their support for his confirmation. Many senators in both parties have expressed concern over the choice of Mr. Gates to lead the Justice Department. That's the way you phrase it in public. Behind the scenes, you phrase it the way you just phrased it. Matt, I'm a hard. No, don't waste your time.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right. And there's a bunch of us, like, I mean, a bunch or remember the Wall Street Journal reported that there were 30 hard nose of the Republicans. They said there were 30 people that said no way. So if it was any number like that, of course he got out. I had one other comment on this.

[Joe Getty]

Oh.

[Jack Armstrong]

When we come back from our next break, I will have for you some tweets of people saying it's the deep state. The deep state. One with their lies and everything to keep him from doing everything that's good in the world.

[Joe Getty]

And this might not necessarily refute that, but in addition to his ethical and legal challenges, Mr. Gates has a long record of gleefully disparaging some Republican senators.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right.

[Joe Getty]

Whose votes he now needs to be confirmed.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. That's why they hate him. And they would say, look, I hate you, you effing a hole.

[Joe Getty]

Now wipe off the sofa where you're sitting. Afraid it got some of your orgy mung on there. Huh?

[Jack Armstrong]

Your orgy mung.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

Hey, don't get any orgy on my upholstery, you disgusting walking std. Who said that the other day?

[Joe Getty]

Oh, Ben Dominic.

[Jack Armstrong]

That's Ben Dominic, who couldn't be a bigger Trump honk. Like to try to do anything to help Trump with everything.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

And he called him a walking std. All right, I feel like we need to take a break and I'll come back with the. How the war games went between us and China. Yes.

[Joe Getty]

Oh, yeah. And I'll make this Very, very short. But we were asking before what Bernie Sanders response would be to the inevitable and obvious result of artificially raised minimum wages. And that is that thousands of people got laid off. Many, many thousands in California got their hours reduced, et cetera, et cetera. He would advocate, I'm sure, for a government mandated maximum level of profit and any profit beyond that would be distributed to the workers. Workers would own the businesses in like the spirit of the Soviet fantasy. Right. And that less profitable businesses would be subsidized by the high taxes on the more profitable businesses. So everybody made a living wage even if their job was to, you know, whatever, flip burgers or something any child could be taught to do in 10 minutes.

[Jack Armstrong]

By the way, I wouldn't cry any tears for Matt Gaetz if you were a fan. I'm sure he's going to work for some very lucrative company that his dad sets him up with and he'll live his party privileged lifestyle for the rest of his life. He'll be perfectly fine without the scrutiny of the country. Bunch of good stuff on the way. We will finish strong. Stay here, Armstrong and Getty.

[Maria Konnikova]

I'm Maria Konnikova.

[Nate Silver]

And I'm Nate Silver.

[Maria Konnikova]

And our podcast Risky Business is a show about making better decisions. Both Nate and I are journalists who moonlight as poker players. We've both won and I have to say, lost hundreds of thousands of dollars playing poker. And poker is a lens that we're going to use to approach this entire show because poker isn't just about playing cards. It's actually about how to make good decisions. It's an entire framework for thinking about the world.

[Nate Silver]

In addition to poker, we'll be talking about the wide world of gambling. So sports betting, for example, plus the news, politics. It is an election year and personal.

[Maria Konnikova]

Decisions too, like whether I should call a plumber or fix my shower myself.

[Nate Silver]

Tune into Risky Business every Thursday.

[Maria Konnikova]

Listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcast country.

[Jack Armstrong]

Music superstar Jelly roll lost over £100, which you would have noticed if you watched the CMAs last night. He walked out a tiny sliver of what he has been as a giant fat guy. See how long that lasts. Unfortunately for Mr. Roll with the diets, you know how that works. Would the US Win a war with China over Taiwan? US Lawmakers briefed on the potential outcome yesterday in Congress. And here are some of the headlines. We the rest of the world could probably stop China from taking Taiwan, but you would lose A lot is really the headline. House lawmakers were Briefed Wednesday about the potential outcome of the US Were to find itself at war with China over Taiwan within the next two years, which is the expected timeline for China to try to do this. The Chinese defense industrial base is operating at a wartime footing, says the report. Are we operating at a wartime footing? We are not. Now has a shipbuilding capacity 230 times greater than the United States. Making a potential invasion of Taiwan a night not unlikely outcome.

[Joe Getty]

I think I've heard enough. Well, if it were not for China's financial and demographic problems, if you were going to ask me what's the next 30 years look like geopolitically, Joe, I'd say, well they have 200 and sometimes our shipbuilding capacity and naval power is going to be one of the deciding factors. So game over.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. To steal a Joe Getty routine, it would be shocking. China has twice the shipbuilding capacity. I'm sorry, 20 times. No, 230 times the shipbuilding capacity of the United States. That is shocking. US military analysts have projected 2027 is the year by which China would be fully equipped for a military invasion. Explains how they do the whole war games thing to try to figure this out. And China invading Taiwan, et cetera. During the simulation, the costs for all sides were high. The US lost 10 to 20 warships, two aircraft carriers which would be huge. 200 to 400 warplanes and more than 3,000 troops were killed in the first three weeks of fighting. China loses 90% of its amphibious fleet, 52 major surface warships and 160 planes. The idea being that we could hold them off to be US and Japan mostly holding them off. But it would be a hell of a hell of a price to pay. The report emphasized four key points. One, Taiwan must hold the line of the ground invasion. Be up to them for the ground part Two, there's no Ukraine model here where the United States can slowly escalate. It must decide immediately whether it's fully coming to Taiwan's defense. That's where the rubber meets the road.

[Joe Getty]

Really stole the words out of my mouth. Yeah, all of this depends on the.

[Jack Armstrong]

Will to engage in it, what military operations would be conducted through Japan and for the US needs to immediately increase its supply of anti ship missiles. But as it say here, says here the scenario all depends on the current presidents, in this case probably Trump's decision on whether or not they're going to defend Taiwan. Trump has made some noises in the past saying I don't think we would or I don't think we should. And I remember listening to the National Review Podcast which I listen to every week. I really love every member on their podcast. When they had this topic last year sometime said I don't think we would and I don't think we should expend that level of expenditure. 3,000. They don't think the United States would put up with the population wouldn't be in favor of it. You know we're, you know, the politics runs our war machine. The person who makes the decision is an elected official. 3,000 deaths, two aircraft carriers, 400 planes. Is the average American into that for protecting Taiwan? They don't even know what Taiwan is. Probably not.

[Joe Getty]

Right, Right. And we can make our own chips eventually. Et cetera, et cetera. Not our issue.

[Jack Armstrong]

China would then control. I think the numbers are between 25 and 30% of international shipping. It would no longer be open waters around the world as we have kept it Since World War II and the Brits kept it before then. That would be over.

[Joe Getty]

Right, right. The Barbary Pirates, etc. Yeah. I'm trying to figure out how this is not true. I think we are heading toward another period of wars of conquest. Vlad Putin kicked it off. Really. China is going to continue. China has made enormous inroads in our hemisphere in South America, by the way. I've been reading a great deal about this as well. And they're doing it by hook and crook and loan and assistance and and trade relationships and all sorts of stuff is we've ignored our own backyard to our detriment. But where those moves are resisted, say in Central America or South America, it's some country, country X where the government officials, or would be government officials become more and more in league with China for their own profit. And forces within that country decide to resist that because they know how unholy and destructive that would long term. And the war is on with China backing guerrilla factions even if it's not overt first. You know, like non proxy wars of conquest. Their backing of military factions in our hemisphere I think is about to explode.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. And I think we don't come to Taiwan's defense which would be great shame for the United States of America as we have promised, that sort of thing. But I think there'd be a hell.

[Joe Getty]

Of a strong response, but not prodding the full force of the navy and our fighters out there now.

[Jack Armstrong]

Boy, would there be a strong response. As the war games say, you're either all in or there's no point.

[Joe Getty]

I'm sorry, strong response.

[Jack Armstrong]

I should have said sanctions. You announced the toughest sanctions.

[Joe Getty]

I wasn't going to use the S word, Jack, but you've laid it on the table. That's right. Sanctions.

[Jack Armstrong]

Toughest sanctions anyone has ever seen. It will be a pariah. China is now a pariah.

[Joe Getty]

They're isolated.

[Jack Armstrong]

As Russia's economy is growing faster than ours. Currently, they're isolated. Look up and smell reality. It's Final Thoughts.

[Joe Getty]

I'm strong again.

[Jack Armstrong]

It's Final Thoughts. It's Final Thoughts.

[Joe Getty]

I'm strong again. Get ready with Katie Green and Michael Angelo.

[Jack Armstrong]

It's Final Thoughts. Yes, we love that one. So we played that one.

[Joe Getty]

Back to a simpler time, doesn't it?

[Jack Armstrong]

That was a hit song back in the day. Did you know that, Katie? Maybe not.

[Katie Green]

I did.

[Joe Getty]

Oh, I know.

[Jack Armstrong]

Here's your host for final Thoughts, Joe Getty.

[Joe Getty]

Let's get a final thought from everybody on the crew to wrap up the show. There is our technical director, Michelangelo, laboring away in his cage, pressing the buttons. Michael, what's your final thought?

[Katie Green]

Well, we're one week away from Thanksgiving, and so the following phrases is what I'll be saying to my relatives next week at this time. Let's see, we got quit watching me chew. And yes, this is my third plate. And you think you're better than me. And finally, yes, I grabbed mashed potatoes with my hand. Deal with it.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow.

[Joe Getty]

My place, my rules. Katie Greener, esteemed newswoman. As a final thought, Katie, I'm gonna get my hands on one of those Aztec death whistles and just blow it whenever somebody's bothering me.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow.

[Joe Getty]

That'D be funny and horrifying. Jack, a final thought for us.

[Jack Armstrong]

I was just thinking I need to set my parameters for the year on weight gain. What am I willing to put up with during this holiday season? Because if I don't have some sort of range of acceptance, it could get out of hand very quick.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, it's funny. I was going to mention I went to my Bourbon Appreciation Society dinner last night and my weight has been really, really good. But the dessert was a pecan pie with a full sized Reese's peanut butter cup on top of it.

[Jack Armstrong]

Of course. Of course.

[Joe Getty]

Slice off a little of the pie, then a little of a cup, put it in your mush and know that God wants us to be happy.

[Jack Armstrong]

Of course, the pie has a giant Reese's peanut butter cup on top of it. Of course.

[Joe Getty]

Boy, I never eat stuff like that. I looked at it, I'm like, what is this, a joke? Well, I'll try it. Featuring pie.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, that's true. That's true. You're right kid. Armstrong and Getty wrapping up another grueling four hour workday.

[Joe Getty]

So many people. Thanks a little time. Go to Armstrong and getty.com the superstore. Get your cut the crap T shirt. It's time to stand up to the madness. The woke lunatics. Cut the crap. Back to sanity.

[Jack Armstrong]

Why did Gates drop out? Spend the day looking into that. We'll have all the news for you tomorrow. God bless America.

[Joe Getty]

Armstrong and Getty. This mere sound could. Could make you insane. Such as the what? This one actually. And I couldn't believe it.

[Jack Armstrong]

No. No. Okay. What in the hell. I mean this feels like a red alert moment for democracy.

[Joe Getty]

So let's go out with a bang. Do they like shellac the banana or phrase?

[Jack Armstrong]

Shellac and the banana is not something we need at all. Not during the holiday season.

[Joe Getty]

Bye bye. Armstrong and Getty.