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- [00:00]
Jack Armstrong
This is an iHeart podcast.
- [00:06]
Joe Getty
Broadcasting live.
- [00:07]
Jack Armstrong
From the Abraham Lincoln radio studio at.
- [00:10]
Commercial Announcer
The George Washington Broadcast Center. Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty.
- [00:14]
Jack Armstrong
Armstrong and Getty. And now here's Armstrong and Getty. While you're enjoying the Armstrong and Getty replay, don't forget the reason for the season. That's European explorers, colonial settlers. I don't know. I don't know what the reason for the season is.
- [00:37]
Joe Getty
It's Columbus spices, right? Looking for India, Was that it?
- [00:41]
Jack Armstrong
I don't know. I feel like I have enough spices.
- [00:43]
Joe Getty
I'm not gonna anyway, enjoy a carefully curated Armstrong and Getty replay. The hotel chain Holiday Inn Express has unveiled a new scent based alarm clock that will wake up guests with a simulated smell of breakfast. Because what weary traveler doesn't love to wake up to a L?
- [01:10]
Jack Armstrong
That's funny. When I was hiking with my son, I said something to him and he. And he said, don't turn this into a forest of lies. Which is a Simpsons reference. So do you want a philosophical AI or nuts and bolts Factual? AI, I think. I think I'll start with nuts and bolts factual. We do a lot of philosophical. Although I do want to get to that at some point. So in business section today of the Washington Post, AI will trigger financial calamity. So that got my attention. It's funny, we were talking about this just the other day. I text in my own personal life. I texted Joe, like, hey, I just checked my 401k because I don't check it on a regular basis. Holy crap. You know, because the stock market's been going up, setting records every single day. I looked at my 400k and it was like, this is incredible. And we're both discussing how there's got to be a correction coming. Coming what? You know, a smart person might think, you know, maybe I'll put this in something kind of not volatile and wait for the correction to come. Of course, that's how you miss out on a lot of rises, right? Buy the dip.
- [02:15]
Joe Getty
Buy the dip. All right.
- [02:17]
Jack Armstrong
AI is going to cause a financial calamity is what it says. And let me read this to you. The House of Core.
- [02:26]
Joe Getty
The.
- [02:26]
Jack Armstrong
And this is from one expert researcher at one of your big AI groups. The house of cards is going to start crumbling. The amount of money being spent is not proportionate to the money that's coming in. These perspectives are all about how, based on the money that's been spent. And we've talked about this a lot of times. Nvidia agreed to invest up to a hundred billion Dollars, or that's about the size of New York City's entire 2024 budget. To give you an idea how much money that is in OpenAI. So Nvidia, the chip maker, is investing in one of the AI corporations and providing it with hard to get chips. And the main point that I'll skip to and then I'll get to the details is the AI industry is now buying its own revenue in a circular fashion. They keep buying, investing in each other in ways. And we'll invest in your chips and then the chip maker invests in the AI and then AI puts more money into the hardware or the big giant thing that's going to power the thing, and then the big company that's going to power the thing puts more money into GROK or whatever. And it's just a circular thing.
- [03:36]
Joe Getty
Which.
- [03:37]
Jack Armstrong
Could be highly troubling. So much of the stock market is AI involved.
- [03:47]
Joe Getty
The.
- [03:49]
Jack Armstrong
And they. Every. Everybody's using the example of the dot com bull bubble that happened in the 90s where there was this buildup, this buildup, this buildup a little bit similar in that companies were investing in other companies and investing in each other and it just kept building and building and then, and then it just collapsed all of a sudden. And if you don't remember, there was.
- [04:10]
Joe Getty
An untested revenue model that they were hoping would come true.
- [04:15]
Jack Armstrong
Yeah, similar to, similar to AI. Yeah. And if you don't remember, if you weren't alive for it or invested at the time, the, the Nasdaq ultimately lost 75% of its value from the peak to the trough. It wasn't a minor correction. The percentages on this whole thing is just really quite incredible. Nvidia, for instance, has added, added $160 billion, or the rise the other day added $160 billion to Nvidia's market value, which has increased by $4 trillion in the last three years. That's an unimaginable amount of money.
- [05:03]
Joe Getty
It's increased by that much?
- [05:04]
Jack Armstrong
Yes, it's increased by $4 trillion in three years. You can't even wrap your head around that kind of thing. And I mentioned earlier, as of today, OpenAI, that's the ChatGPT company, it's privately held, it's not a stock, but it reached a valuation of a half a trillion dollars. It's the most valuable privately held company in the world right now. And they're investing in each other. For skeptics, it's another dangerous sign of excess because such deals, in which players in the AI ecosystem are Exchanging money are simply financial tricks that are camouflaging the evidence of a bubble that is about to burst, says this analysis. You know, this person's guessing to a certain point to, to a certain extent like everybody else.
- [05:48]
Joe Getty
That's the annoying part about bubbles is that if you could be sure they were bubbles, they would never happen.
- [05:55]
Jack Armstrong
The capital expenditures made by a very small number of companies, as we been talking about, it's, it's like you got Nvidia, you got Google, you got Tesla, you just got a handful of companies that are driving most of your stock market records. The capital expenditures made by this small number of companies are now contributing more to GDP than, than the spending of all of America's consumers. This person, this financial expert said, I wonder if the black holes ultimately consume each other as well as our economy and power grid in the process, which is obviously a highly troubling idea.
- [06:31]
Joe Getty
That's a little cataclysmic there, son.
- [06:33]
Jack Armstrong
Yeah. To put it differently, one of the most notorious calamities of the dot com era was the collapse of pets dot com. Everybody uses that one as the example. Its peak market value is about $300 million. Since the release of Chat GPT in 2022. The value of America's stock market has risen by. Since the release of chat GPT and it's only been out for three years, the stock market has risen by $21 trillion. In a recent piece, this guy from JP Morgan wrote that since that time, AI related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 79% of earnings growth and 90% of capital spending growth. That is an awful lot on just a couple of companies. And all of those companies are growing around the idea of AI.
- [07:31]
Joe Getty
Right. You know, I'm reminded of the whimsical yet dark description of the Russian. The Russian armed forces is a midget with one giant muscled arm, which is it's nuclear forces. Is the American economy slash stock market a absolute penniless pauper walking around with the hope diamond in his hand. And if the hope diamond goes away, it's just.
- [08:00]
Jack Armstrong
Yeah, well obviously if AI turns out to be what these companies think it's going to be, everything will be fine. But if it's not, or if it's not very soon, that's going to be a problem. I mean those numbers are shocking. A $21 trillion rise in three years and three quarters to 80% of it, depending on how you count it is all these handful of companies investing in AI in each other. Right? Holy crap.
- [08:27]
Joe Getty
Sounds a little bubbly.
- [08:28]
Jack Armstrong
God, I would say so unless it pans out to be what they think it's going to be, then everything will be fine. Now, to the philosophical thing on AI that I wanted to mention. I don't know if you know who Sam Harris is. He's a philosopher podcaster sort of person. He's on Bill Maher Show a lot or whatever. He's got a pretty popular podcast, and he's got a series on right now called the Last Invention, where he's interviewing all of the top AI minds in the world. And he wanted to get some different points of view on people with a more positive view of AI because he's a doomer. That's what they call people who lean toward the AI is going to ruin humanity and the economy and the world and everything else. Why aren't we stopping this? Those are doomers. I think I lean more toward doomer than the. It's going to cure cancer and people won't have to work anymore. Optimists. And then there's also the crowd that just thinks it won't happen, so it won't make any difference. You probably have heard of the Turing Test when it comes to computers and everything like that. That was one of the biggest phrases around the growing power of computers for decades and decades and decades and decades, like, man, whenever we finally reach the point that something can pass the Turing Test, we gotta watch out for that, because that's gonna be a major moment in human history. That is when you could believe that you're communicating with a human being on the computer, be fooled into thinking it's a human. We passed the Turing Test, like, two, three years ago, and it just came and went without any commentary. I mean, all your experts are saying this was built up and built up and built up. Then it happened. Everybody's like, oh, well, well, let's just keep going. Nobody. Nobody slowed down for whatever reason. And on this particular podcast, getting into that topic, and I thought this was a really interesting way to look at it. This is the idea that people are starting to have human communication with their chatbots, and it feels like you're talking to another human. I did it in my Tesla with Grok just yesterday, asking it kind of a banal question, but it was talking to me like it's a passenger in the car. It's very, very weird. This particular philosopher, who I've read some of his books, said, you know, for the very old, you could see this as a positive. You're old, you're alone in an old folks home, all your friends have passed away, you got nobody. And now you're feeling like you've got a companion. That's. How can you argue with that, right? You know, who cares but brings you comfort.
- [11:00]
Joe Getty
Sure. Yeah, right.
- [11:00]
Jack Armstrong
It brings comfort at the end of your life, but for everybody younger, it is going to destroy something with the idea that. And this philosopher, behavioral for lobster philosopher said, loneliness is a powerful signal that we get that tells us we're doing something wrong, that we're not living our life correctly. If you're lonely, you either aren't, you know, joining up groups or taking advantage of invitations to go do things or making the bold move to ask somebody on a date or whatever, you're living your life. You know, you got to make some corrections. If lonely people can get that loneliness satisfied through a chat bot, there'll be no corrective mechanism to do anything different.
- [11:48]
Joe Getty
Yeah, I, I quibble only with the word satisfied because as I've been saying for years and years now, using a food metaphor, you satiate your hunger, you do not get any nutrition.
- [11:59]
Jack Armstrong
Well, the problem though is it'll be enough to keep you from feeling the corrective mechanism. I think that's been proven with, with freaking Internet porn.
- [12:07]
Joe Getty
Well, no, that's, that's, that's my point exactly. Yeah. You will no longer seek that which will keep you alive.
- [12:13]
Jack Armstrong
Well, maybe I didn't make.
- [12:14]
Joe Getty
Maybe I didn't make cocaine.
- [12:16]
Jack Armstrong
Maybe I didn't make it clear. He was pointing this out as a negative. This is a bad thing. This is an awful thing, right? That it will, you know, that it will fool people. It, it will give people enough to, you know, you don't do the normal correction. You don't think, I've got to get out of my house. I've got to do something. I got to join a bowling league. I got to do something people won't.
- [12:34]
Joe Getty
Right. It'll kill their souls.
- [12:36]
Jack Armstrong
And I, I don't see how we don't, I don't see how we don't go down that road unless like Sam Harris is arguing that we outlaw it. Just flat out outlawed the AI. Any company trying to do it around the world. We treat it like nuclear weapons. I would agree. Good luck with that. Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty. The Armstrong and Getty Show.
- [13:07]
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- [14:05]
Jack Armstrong
Automated pitch callers will now allow teams to challenge the calls of human umpires. The system has been tested in the minors. Under the new rules, teams will get two challenges per game. So I've seen the videos. They look like those Boston Electronics or whatever things. They walk out there, they do some dancing and then they squat down behind the plate.
- [14:24]
Joe Getty
That is inaccurate, sir. No, it's just a bunch of sensors and they're going to ease in. Computer. Well, sensor umpires instead of humans calling balls and strikes. By doing this, you get two pitch appeals per game.
- [14:37]
Jack Armstrong
You ease in. So you think at some point the computers will take over 100% balls and strikes? Yeah. Oh, really? And they'll just eliminate umpires?
- [14:46]
Joe Getty
No, the umps will still have to be there, at least for a while to call like foul tips, catchers, interference tag plays, force plays at the plate, that sort of thing.
- [14:56]
Jack Armstrong
Not balls and strikes.
- [14:58]
Joe Getty
Correct. Yeah. They will just stand there waiting for something to happen as if they're the first base umpire.
- [15:03]
Jack Armstrong
And as a, as a, a baseball fan, do you think that's good or bad?
- [15:09]
Joe Getty
Oh, goodness, mostly bad. Kind of a mixed bag, honestly. Several other sports have gone to, you know, electronic eyes. Tennis, notably.
- [15:20]
Jack Armstrong
Yeah, but that, that makes a hundred percent sense sense because it's either in or out on the line and a computer can tell. But the whole, you know, where the catcher sets up thing and all that sort of stuff is the, can the computer do that?
- [15:34]
Joe Getty
Well, no, we're, we're taking that away completely. There's a geometric shape. If the ball passes through that imaginary geometric shape, which is the width of the plate and the batter, whatever the strike zone actually is, if it passes through that, it's a strike period. If it doesn't, it's a ball period.
- [15:50]
Jack Armstrong
Do pitchers like that or. No.
- [15:54]
Joe Getty
Major league insiders tell me no, because it's such a change of the game and this, I know this seems strange to people who are either not fans or minor fans, but if the catcher sets out like outside the plate, an intentional ball, I want you to throw a ball, let's see if we can get him to chase it. And the pitcher completely misfires and the catcher has to dive across the plate to even catch the ball, but it catches a split, you know, inch of the plate. Nobody in baseball, the hitters, the catchers, the pitcher, nobody wants that to be a strike, but it will be a strike.
- [16:27]
Jack Armstrong
Okay, well then I don't like it. I'm against it. Doesn't make a difference. I'm against it's going to happen.
- [16:31]
Joe Getty
But yeah, March of Time, AI, Etc, Chinese Robot Wolves, it's all tied in.
- [16:38]
Jack Armstrong
Also, just the human element. I don't know, it plays part of the whole soap opera, right? As we always point out, the goal is not to find out actually which city can create the best baseball team.
- [16:50]
Joe Getty
Temporarily rent the best players.
- [16:52]
Jack Armstrong
Yes, it's a TV show. And what's most exciting in the whole, you know, this umpire, you know, he's a favorable umpire for this pitcher. And then they get into arguments and stuff. That's part of the excitement of the game. That makes it a fun TV show, right? The drama, Right.
- [17:06]
Joe Getty
Oh, yeah, I think that's a great point.
- [17:08]
Jack Armstrong
Last time this pitcher in this umpire went nose to nose. So we'll see if that carries over into this game. Is part of the soap opera that makes me want to watch.
- [17:15]
Joe Getty
Right? Oh, Jones wanted that pitch. You can see the old animosity flaring already. Jim. Nope, it's gone. It's like writing a soap opera where every character behaves perfectly rationally. Great. Enjoy it. Let's all get some popcorn and watch.
- [17:30]
Jack Armstrong
Or how about if you just will just all craft robots that go out and with no people involved, robots will just play each other and they'll all be equally good and every call will be perfect and yippee. You know, there's an upside.
- [17:42]
Joe Getty
There are crappy calls that change games and change championships and nobody wants that either. But be careful what you you lose when you're gaining a little more accurate.
- [17:53]
Jack Armstrong
It's been around for like 130 years or something. I wouldn't think you'd want to mess with it too much.
- [17:57]
Joe Getty
It makes zillions and zillions of dollars. The Armstrong and Getty Show Armstrong and Getty Jack and Joe are here to tell you your day will be just fine. Just download the podcast.
- [18:10]
Jack Armstrong
It won't cost you a Dime Armstrong and Getty on Demand. That's the podcast. Subscribe right now.
- [18:21]
Joe Getty
Armstrong and Getty.
- [18:27]
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- [19:27]
Joe Getty
Guys, there's no way to sugarcoat it. Nobody likes Democrats anymore. We have no voters left because of all of our woke trans bull. Not even black people want to vote for us anymore. Even Latinos hate us. So we need new voters.
- [19:40]
Jack Armstrong
Voters.
- [19:41]
Joe Getty
And if we give all these illegal aliens free health care, we might be able to get them on our side so they can vote for us.
- [19:49]
Jack Armstrong
That is not actually Chuck Schumer. That is an AI voice of the Democratic leader of the Senate. And that was not actually Donald Trump in a sombrero behind him playing the trumpet.
- [19:59]
Joe Getty
I was going to praise Schumer for his candor.
- [20:03]
Jack Armstrong
Hakeem Jeffries was not actually wearing a sombrero with a big giant black mustache. Also, J.D. vance did not actually say this. Okay, Esto is mucho. Simply el Democrat Party is mucho retardo. Okay? Mucho retardo. Especially El Hakimo Jeffries.
- [20:19]
Joe Getty
El Chucko Schumer.
- [20:20]
Jack Armstrong
They are extra retardo. So El Presidente and I cannot negotiate with these Democrat retardos. Oh wow.
- [20:27]
Joe Getty
No, no, no, no no no no no. I don't like that term. Otherwise it was very funny.
- [20:34]
Jack Armstrong
Started earlier in the week with that, just Schumer saying this stuff about the Democrats. And then there's kind of the subtle ish sombrero and mustache and it's grown since then into this. All subtlety has been lost and it's just completely out of control now.
- [20:48]
Joe Getty
Well, and I Love that. That reporter before. Is it helpful to post sombrero pictures when you're attempting to negotiate? Oh, come on.
- [20:57]
Jack Armstrong
So here's Hakeem Jeffries, the leader of the Democrats in the House. He just reacting to the videos. It's a disgusting video. And we're going to continue to make clear bigotry will get you nowhere. We are fighting to protect the health care of the American people in the face of an unprecedented Republican assault on.
- [21:18]
Joe Getty
All the things Medicaid, Medicare.
- [21:21]
Jack Armstrong
The disgusting video. And here's the reporter thing Joe was mentioning. The president's been posting some images of.
- [21:28]
Joe Getty
Leader Jeffries and Senator Schumer recently. You've said that your interest in good faith negotiations with these leaders. But you know, what message does that send? Is it helpful to post pictures of Leader Jeffries and sombrero if you're trying to have.
- [21:44]
Jack Armstrong
An answer?
- [21:44]
Joe Getty
But yeah, you know what it shows? It shows that we're the party that's got a sense of humor.
- [21:50]
Jack Armstrong
Wow.
- [21:50]
Joe Getty
Angry all the time. Come on. A little black mustache.
- [21:55]
Jack Armstrong
Is it helpful to post pictures of Mr. Jeffries and a sombrero and giant black mustache? Well, a whole bunch of trumps. There's only one trump. While five different trumps play trumpets and.
- [22:08]
Joe Getty
Giant guitars, implying, some might say, that there are multiple trumps who should run for a third term.
- [22:14]
Jack Armstrong
If there were multiple trumps, they'd be in a mariachi band. Is that helpful?
- [22:22]
Joe Getty
Oh, my golly.
- [22:24]
Jack Armstrong
Oh, this is.
- [22:25]
Joe Getty
This is. It's almost kind of fun to watch. Not the really silly part of it, but the effort. Hakeem Jeffries to try to get his civil rights movement. I'm outraged. We're all fighting together, voice going. And he runs out of the flagpole and absolutely no one salutes.
- [22:43]
Jack Armstrong
Yeah. I'll say it again. I've said it multiple times. But the fact that the Washington Post editorial board, the people that run the Washington Post, said the Democrats walked into a trap on this one, and then they shouldn't have shut down the government. They should have cobbled together to votes to go with this. So I heard it explained. It's actually pretty good explanation. These. These shutdowns are dumb and don't matter. And the last one lasted a month, and you don't even remember it happened. All right, so quit acting like it's a big deal. But several times this happened last couple of times with Republicans where, like, the Tea Party did this. Like, we're gonna show how hard we're gonna fight. And I was on board with the fighting, everything like that. But you just don't have the leverage or the votes to actually make anything happen. And Ted Cruz did it around Obamacare. He did the law, the really long, what do you call it?
- [23:34]
Joe Getty
Filibuster.
- [23:35]
Jack Armstrong
And then they also wouldn't go along because they needed his vote to avoid a shutdown and he had no leverage to actually get anything accomplished. And that's what the, the woke progressive end of Democrats are doing now. We're going to force a shutdown to show how much we fight, but we don't actually have the leverage to do anything. And so this has happened a couple of times. And again, nobody, nobody, nobody dies, nobody even notices it happens. It disappears into the history books. Man, if you ever read that history book, you are bored to death. But speaking of jokes, here's an AI or no, this is a comedian. This is not AI this is a comedian who does a good Trump voice.
- [24:12]
Comedian
Hola, me fellow Americano. Si bienvenidos al Sierra de Schumer. That means welcome to the Schuma shutdown. We call it the Schumer siesta.
- [24:24]
Joe Getty
Right?
- [24:24]
Comedian
It's the Schumer siesta. He put the government on siesta. Crying Chuck and El Hachimo Jefe Jeffries, we used to call them Dallas Door Obama till we realized he's worth far less than a dollar. But they put the government on siesta to give illegal aliens your health care. We're not gonna let it happen. I looked at both of them. I said, we're not gonna let it happen. It's no bueno. I said, it's no bueno. They begged me. They said, but, senor Port for more, please give illegal aliens to healthcare. I said, we're not going to do it. We're never going to do it. It's not going to happen. We're going to end the siesta. We're going to reopen the government, and we will not give in to the demands of Chuck and El Jefe. We're not going to do that. Thank you. God bless you, Diolo Bendiga, and God bless America. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
- [25:17]
Jack Armstrong
That last part was probably funny, but I don't speak enough Spanish to know what he said.
- [25:20]
Joe Getty
Yeah, I missed that one too.
- [25:22]
Jack Armstrong
The but please, senor. That's pretty funny. The funny thing is that that's only like one tick off actual Trump.
- [25:34]
Joe Getty
Yes.
- [25:34]
Jack Armstrong
I mean, it's just barely even comedy as opposed to the President actually saying what he was saying. And so Trump said, I got it on. Where did. I grabbed it somewhere I lost it. Trump said something funny, but I can't remember what it was about. The Democrats handing him this. The he can't believe that they same thing the Washington Post editorial board basically said is he can't believe that the Democrats are allowing him to do this. And all the leverage.
- [26:04]
Joe Getty
Well, in. In Trump's boy Russell vote, the budget chief is taking advantage of it to try to shrink the government as fast as he possibly can. Whether it holds up or not, nobody's quite sure. But it's exactly what Trump and elon Musk and Co. And a lot of conservatives have been wanting to happen. So let it continue.
- [26:26]
Jack Armstrong
That's fine. I saw there was some thing in the New York Times yesterday. I got the bulletin during the day. You're nervous. Are experts are here to answer your questions about the shutdown. I thought. And I'm not nervous. I don't have any questions. I'm perfectly fine. It'll end, like I keep saying, this afternoon or Friday night or next Tuesday, and nobody will ever think about it ever again.
- [26:48]
Joe Getty
So that was to their sizable percentage of their listenership that still wears Covid masks alone outdoors.
- [26:55]
Commercial Announcer
Right.
- [26:55]
Joe Getty
Well, those people are scared. They wake up scared. It makes them feel important.
- [26:59]
Jack Armstrong
Well, I hadn't seen this. Israel struck overnight in the Gaza Strip, killed at least 13 Palestinians, according to whoever. According to hospitals. Of course, a lot of hospitals are just Hamas holdouts and they call them a hospital. But anyway, Israel's continuing to blast that area, Gaza, while Hamas is waiting to decide thumbs up or thumbs down on the peace proposal, which the deadline is this weekend. It's Thursday now. Running out of time.
- [27:27]
Joe Getty
Yeah, well, maybe they ought to take a hard look at it and figure it out quick.
- [27:31]
Jack Armstrong
What do you think's going to happen?
- [27:35]
Joe Getty
I still think there are only two choices. One, Hamas says, all right, we'll go along with it and pretends to go along with it and. And seeks to do. They've always sought to do as hard as they can. Secondly, they just reject it and say we'll fight to the death because they've vowed martyrdom over and over again.
- [27:54]
Jack Armstrong
So the critics are saying, like I saw this, Peter Baker of the New York Times, that this was basically, you know, an all or nothing for Hamas proposal for from. Yeah. You see, one side is winning the war and they're going to win the war no matter what. So they offered to the people that they're about to completely decimate. Here's a way out if you want it. If you don't, we're just going to continue to do what we're doing. That's the way most wars end.
- [28:24]
Joe Getty
Yeah. So what, like all of them? Yeah.
- [28:28]
Jack Armstrong
So they can decide to do what Joe said and, you know, they're, they're dead enders. So they might say, you know, we're going to go ahead and fight to the death because they don't care if they take all the Palestinians with them. Doesn't matter to them. In fact, they think that would be great.
- [28:40]
Joe Getty
Oh, yeah. In fact, they're going to fight as long as they can and have as many civilians die as possible to hope that the world opinion turns against Israel, because it already has to some extent. So, yeah, that's, that's probably the most likely scenario. But the idea that, you know, the Peter Bakers of the world, and he's a bright enough guy, but my God, you're holding Israel to a standard that has never existed in warfare in the history of the world. You've just invented this special new one for Israel, the Armstrong and Getty Show. Get more Jack, more Joe podcasts and our hot links@armstrongandgetty.com.
- [29:14]
Commercial Announcer
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- [30:13]
Jack Armstrong
Armstrong and Getty show from the department.
- [30:19]
Joe Getty
Of why does nobody recognize we're driving toward a cliff at 100 miles per hour? Alicia Finley of the Wall Street Journal pointing out that America's buy now, pay later economy is showing signs of an emerging debt crisis everywhere.
- [30:35]
Jack Armstrong
I don't like this story. I'm not doing that. I'm a I don't buy it until I can afford it sort of guy.
- [30:41]
Joe Getty
But.
- [30:43]
Jack Armstrong
We all get brought down by a financial collapse. We all realize that. Right?
- [30:47]
Joe Getty
Right. The word inclusive is very Hot these days. There certainly was a couple of years ago. That's the brilliant thing about a financial crash. It includes virtually everybody in misery. So anyway, so she points out that serious credit card and auto loan delinquencies have climbed to the level of the 2008. 09 recession.
- [31:06]
Jack Armstrong
Okay, so right, right after that giant crash.
- [31:09]
Joe Getty
Yes.
- [31:10]
Jack Armstrong
Not surprising that lots of people all of a sudden were in trouble and not quite making their payments on time and that sort of stuff. What is the reason now?
- [31:21]
Joe Getty
Nobody's sure we like spending money. She says the housing market shows cracks while the labor market is weakening. But you wouldn't know it from the buoyant stock market and consumer spending. America's buy now, pay later economy and increasingly fueled by leverage as consumers, investors, businesses and the government are all taking on more debt, which she points out. And there's always one person like this at the party. She points out, you have to pay for debt later with interest.
- [31:52]
Jack Armstrong
Thank you for that.
- [31:54]
Joe Getty
What a drag, man. As Americans max out their credit cards after years of inflation, by now pay later offers are popping up everywhere from concert tickets to vacations to grocery stores.
- [32:08]
Jack Armstrong
Boy, oh boy, oh boy, oh boy. I could see how it'd be appealing if I'm 21 year old Jack and they'll never tour again or whatever.
- [32:17]
Joe Getty
It's their farewell tour, man.
- [32:19]
Jack Armstrong
Do not buy your concert tickets on I can't afford it now, but I'll magically have more money six months from now. No, don't do that.
- [32:28]
Joe Getty
I guess there are now apps where you can split the cost of your purchases into installment payments over weeks or months. Some are template currently interest free. For now, just include fees.
- [32:40]
Jack Armstrong
Here's what you do. You borrow against your used car. Is that still a thing that people are doing where you take out equity from your used car? Yeesh.
- [32:48]
Joe Getty
Right? Yeah. And unlike credit cards, a lot of these services don't report the loans to the credit bureaus. So folks are in much more debt than their credit rating might indicate.
- [32:59]
Jack Armstrong
But so these, all these different entities that are giving people these deals must feel like they're going to get paid back?
- [33:08]
Joe Getty
Oh yeah, yeah.
- [33:10]
Jack Armstrong
Certainly in the short term.
- [33:12]
Joe Getty
And they, they, they have carefully calculated their default rates and you know, price their services. Excuse me, accordingly. And, and you know, if somebody ends up not being able to pay, they just put them their name on the blacklist.
- [33:24]
Jack Armstrong
And boy, my, my oldest son has got a, a life lesson coming on. I don't even remember what it was now. It's been so long. And something he really, really wanted and kind of fronted him the money. Kind of fronted him the money on that. With the idea that you will owe me and I will be keeping track of it. And I have been keeping track of it and he still owes me. And Christmas might just be here. I've wiped off half your debt. Merry Christmas. That would be a lesson in how that whole thing works.
- [33:52]
Joe Getty
That would be a great gift in a way.
- [33:55]
Jack Armstrong
Yeah, sure.
- [33:56]
Joe Getty
Not to be appreciated at the. According to a recent survey, about half of consumers have used a buy now, pay later service. This is not a niche. This is half.
- [34:07]
Jack Armstrong
Wow.
- [34:07]
Joe Getty
Heavily skewed towards the young concert tickets.
- [34:11]
Jack Armstrong
Your vacation. I mean everybody kind of does that on vacation, right? Because you put everything on your credit card whether you pay it off that month or over a couple of months.
- [34:20]
Joe Getty
Good point. Yeah. Let's see. Federal Reserve paper last December found such users are more likely to have low credit scores, carry a balance on credit cards, have incurred checking overdraft fees, and have more delinquent credit accounts. Financially vulnerable consumers may be overextending themselves. And let's see. One of the bigger buy now, pay later services announced an IPO which is expected to be one of the biggest of the year. Such services make money by capitalizing on financially stretched consumers, especially young people who don't want to tighten their belts. Wow.
- [35:03]
Jack Armstrong
According to the Babylon Be, as we told you, the Social Security Administration is going to be renamed the Charles Ponzi Memorial Retirement Plan, which I like.
- [35:13]
Joe Getty
That is great.
- [35:14]
Jack Armstrong
The Department of Justice will be changed to the Department of Revenge on All Losers and Haters. I don't think that's appropriate.
- [35:23]
Joe Getty
And yet somewhat accurate in these days of lawfare.
- [35:27]
Jack Armstrong
This is one that hurts. The Department of the treasury will be changed to the Chinese loan office.
- [35:33]
Commercial Announcer
Oh, oh.
- [35:38]
Jack Armstrong
One more that I liked. How Housing and Urban Development will retitle as Department of the Poors. The Poor pores. Wow. By the way, we got text from somebody who said they always appreciate when I do my Porky Pig routine not being able to pronounce a word.
- [36:00]
Joe Getty
Hey, I got another statistic for you. That's enough fun. Back to the misery. So in 2012 mortgage, you know, holders had debt to income ratios considered risky. Right. 28% of people had a debt to income ratio. That was pretty risky. 28% last year, 69%.
- [36:25]
Jack Armstrong
Oh my God.
- [36:27]
Joe Getty
For Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac it was 38, up from 16 in 2012.
- [36:32]
Jack Armstrong
Seven out of 10 of. Yeah, yeah. I don't think I do have a risky debt to income ratio.
- [36:40]
Joe Getty
And if I haven't driven you to buy gold and bury it in your backyards yet? How much? How about one more? The FHA Federal Housing Association. Do we have a fancy new name for them from the Babylon B.
- [36:53]
Jack Armstrong
Too bad.
- [36:54]
Joe Getty
They've waived or reduced monthly payments on 1.2 million mortgages over the past two years. That's about 15% of the total that they hold. And without that forgiveness passed during the Biden administration, delinquencies would be near the level of the 200809 meltdown. Fannie and Freddie have also been slashing and deferring payments on hundreds of thousands of mortgages.
- [37:17]
Jack Armstrong
So I go into my son's room last night to talk to him, which is one of the grooviest high schooler bedrooms I've ever seen in my life. He's put a lot of effort into it and it's very cool and dark. It's always very dark in there. But anyway, I go into my high schoolers room last night, it did not smell pleasant. I said, what is the deal in here? And he must have taken that to heart because now the entire house smells like high school boy cologne. And I said, what did you do? And he said, well, you sit at smell beds. So I sprayed around some of my cologne. I thought that would help. Some of your cologne? Oh, it smells like you're on a date with four high school sophomore boys right now in my house.
- [38:02]
Joe Getty
Wow. Way too much important to ascertain the source of the funk first.
- [38:09]
Jack Armstrong
That's funny. I don't know what it is about the scent, but it just. It smells like. If you had to name the smell, you'd say I'm on a date with a boy who's about old enough to.
- [38:19]
Joe Getty
Get his driver's license.
- [38:21]
Jack Armstrong
That's what it smells like. Its own scent.
- [38:25]
Joe Getty
Wow.
- [38:26]
Jack Armstrong
AX Bedroom Spray or something like that. Yikes. Among the stores.
- [38:31]
Joe Getty
I hope you bought it for cash and didn't borrow the money or, you know, break up the pain. It's the Armstrong and Getty show. Armstrong and Getty.
- [38:46]
Jack Armstrong
Armstrong and Gettysburg. This is an I Heart podcast.