The Porcupine Effect

Summary

Armstrong & Getty On Demand – "The Porcupine Effect" (May 15, 2026)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Armstrong discusses recent high-stakes developments in US-China relations, particularly focused on President Trump’s visit to Beijing and China’s assertive stance on Taiwan. The discussion then expands to include an in-depth conversation with military analyst Mike Lyons covering tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the evolving role of artificial intelligence in military strategy, and assessments of Iran’s military capabilities in the current Middle Eastern conflict. The tone is informal, skeptical, and sometimes urgent, embodying Armstrong’s curious and conversational style.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalating China–Taiwan Tensions

• Armstrong opens by highlighting the unexpectedly intense focus on Taiwan during Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping, describing repeated and insistent statements from Xi claiming Taiwan as a core issue.
  • “President Xi... pushed this Taiwan thing more and harder than I think anybody was expecting.” (01:03)
  • Both leaders’ body language became “noticeably stiffer,” indicating rising tension and perhaps confrontation. (01:27)
• Mike Lyons analyzes the situation:
  • Suggests Xi is adopting Trump's tactics of leverage and power-language, portraying China as a rising power, the US as a ruling but declining force.
  • “...could ruin everything between the US and China. That seems to be their hard line.” (03:06)
  • The risk: war as an inevitable outcome if the US becomes directly involved.
  • Notes that China aims for a “very hands-off operation,” seeking to keep foreign involvement at bay. (03:48)

2. The “Porcupine Effect” and Military Realities in Taiwan

• Armstrong questions the US’s practical ability to defend Taiwan, citing China’s geographic advantage.
  • “If they decided to take Taiwan, it would be really hard for us to stop them.” (04:08)
• Lyons introduces the “porcupine” strategy:
  • Focus is on arming Taiwan so robustly that the cost of invasion becomes unpalatable.
  • Parallels with Ukraine: deterrence through high cost didn’t work there; may not work in Taiwan.
  • “Just give Taiwan enough equipment that the cost of taking it militarily [is] so high... The cost of it was too high. It didn’t stop the Russians there.” (04:25)
  • Lyons remains unconvinced of the narrative that China has fully overtaken the US as a global power, noting China’s lack of recent military engagements.
  • Raises the alarming scenario: US may not sacrifice a West Coast city as the potential price for defending Taiwan in the nuclear era. (04:57)

3. US–China AI Arms Control: “Mutually Automated Destruction”

• Armstrong pivots to AI, referencing Lyons’ op-ed on US–China cooperation on artificial intelligence.
  • Armstrong is fascinated with AI, calling it a “big deal.” (05:35)
• Lyons:
  • Compares AI’s military potential to nuclear weapons, warns of catastrophic risks if autonomous targeting is left unchecked.
  • Calls for an “AI SALT treaty” (akin to Cold War nuclear arms control).
  • “AI is a potential nuclear weapon that can destroy the Earth if we let it... We’ve got to get with China to create...a Strategic Arms Limit Treaty. Treat it like it’s a nuclear weapon.” (06:11)
  • Defensive AI (e.g., Israel’s Iron Dome) is justified; offensive autonomous AI is where the “red line” must be drawn.
  • Warns of “mutually automated destruction” – automated escalation leading to devastation without human oversight. (07:06)
• Armstrong notes the unpredictable risk if AI evolves beyond human control: “might not be any controlling AI at all by anyone.” (07:31)
• Policy Outlook: Lyons urges US Congress to develop legal frameworks for military AI use and to present such standards internationally, emulating past nuclear arms diplomacy. (07:52)

4. Iran’s Missile Arsenal: Disputed Intelligence

• Armstrong brings up reported intelligence that Iran retains a much larger missile stockpile than previously believed.
  • “Iran has way more rockets and missiles and rocket launchers... Do you believe that?” (08:38)
• Lyons:
  • Disputes reports, citing logistical and operational constraints that limit Iran’s real striking capability.
  • “It’s not even just the rockets themselves, it’s all of the systems together and they just can’t scale it on any level anymore...they just can’t deploy them is really what’s going on here.” (09:15)
  • Pushes for more decisive military action, echoing the impatience of military analysts over diplomatic delays, but acknowledges the president’s (Trump’s) diplomatic approach. (09:35)

5. Prospects for Regime Change in Iran and Global Hotspots

• Lyons expects significant action soon, rooted in the belief that leaving Iran weakened but intact is not viable for US or allied interests.
  • “They can’t risk leaving Iran weak but still able to move forward. And that does mean regime change.” (10:21)
  • Tactics seem to focus on economic pressure and potential internal collapse, but air-only regime change has no precedent.
  • Notes how regional and global partners (e.g., UAE) share this hardline view. (10:09)
• Additional Flashpoints:
  • Pacific straits, Venezuela, and Cuba all noted as volatile but currently “going well.”
  • Suggests Trump is using both flattery and pressure (“the hammer”) on China as part of a broader Machiavellian foreign policy. (11:06)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Armstrong: “President Xi…pushed this Taiwan thing more and harder than I think anybody was expecting.” (01:03)
• Mike Lyons: “That could ruin everything between the US and China. That seems to be their hard line.” (03:06)
• Mike Lyons: “To keep them from taking it [Taiwan], it would require US forces firing missiles into mainland China, which would then…start this war.” (04:25)
• Mike Lyons: “Just give Taiwan enough equipment that…the cost of taking it militarily [is] so high…It didn’t stop the Russians there.” (04:25)
• Mike Lyons: “AI is a potential nuclear weapon that can destroy the Earth if we let it…We've got to get with China to create…a Strategic Arms Limit Treaty.” (06:11)
• Mike Lyons: “Instead of having Mutually Assured Destruction…you could have, you know, mutually automated destruction, where once it starts, both sides would be completely destroyed just based on automation alone.” (07:06)
• Mike Lyons: “It’s not even just the rockets themselves, it’s all of the systems together and they just can’t scale it on any level anymore…they just can’t deploy them is really what’s going on here.” (09:15)
• Mike Lyons: “They can’t risk leaving Iran weak but still able to move forward. And that does mean regime change.” (10:21)

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Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:03: Armstrong introduces the Trump–Xi summit, Taiwan focus.
• 03:06: Mike Lyons on China’s hard line and the risk of escalation.
• 04:25: Lyons outlines the “porcupine” strategy and nuclear dangers.
• 06:11: Lyons compares AI to nuclear weapons, urges arms control.
• 07:06: Warning of “mutually automated destruction.”
• 08:38: Discussion of Iran’s missile capabilities.
• 10:21: Lyons on the need for regime change in Iran.
• 11:06: Global flashpoints, Trump’s foreign policy style.

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Conclusion

This episode provides a sharp, unsparing look at the world’s most dangerous flashpoints—from Beijing’s ambitions in Taiwan to the rapid militarization of artificial intelligence and the real capabilities of Iran’s armed forces. With insights from Mike Lyons, listeners are given a mix of up-to-the-minute analysis, skepticism of mainstream reporting, and a call for urgent policy responses in both technology governance and geopolitical hot spots. Armstrong’s informal style and willingness to press for clarity make for a lively and accessible deep-dive into today’s global security dilemmas.

Transcript

[Armstrong]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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[Armstrong]

So there is a bit of a breaking big news story around Trump's visit to Beijing as President Xi of China has pushed this Taiwan thing more and harder than I think anybody was expecting. Like over and over again. Each time they sit down to meet or like, no matter whatever topic we bring up, she goes back to Taiwan being a really big deal and very important to him and Taiwan belongs to us and over and over again. And I think that's interesting. We're getting more reporting on that. Give you this version from the New York Post before we get to Mike Lyons, because I want to ask him about this and a bunch of other stuff. A very different story began to emerge behind closed doors after President Xi continually pressed the issue of Taiwan. The mid morning sit down ran long, about 40 minutes over its scheduled time. Trump was notably quieter at the next stop. He ignored shouted questions. The body language of both presidents was noticeably stiffer than it was earlier. And as in, there had been some, you know, confrontation and they had reached a point of things being uncomfortable around this issue and their people are putting out very strong language about it. And we're reiterating that Taiwan is a free nation and we support them. Anyway, it's kind of a surprise in the whole thing. We'd like to welcome to the show Mike Lyons. We love talking to Mike about anything militarily. You can follow him at MA J is in major M A J Mike Lyons on his Twitter feed. He just had an op ed indefense.com about AI and our relationship with China, which we'll talk about in a little bit. But hey Mike, what do you think about this hardcore push from President Xi about How we're taking Taiwan someday and don't get in our way or there will be a war. That's basically what he said.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, no, I saw that report that comes from, you know, kind of an old Greek model about kind of rising powers and existing powers. And the bottom line is that could ruin everything between the US And China. That seems to be their hard line. I think President Xi is trying to understand Donald Trump's language of leverage, and I think that's what he's trying to use as leverage. Back to everything that the President wanted and wants to accomplish in this summit. He brought all the CEOs, he's bringing all this, his perceived leverage into the equation. And I think President Xi is just trying to pivot that way. And, and they see themselves as this rising power, and he recognizes the US As a ruling power. And to frame it the way he has means that potentially war could be inevitable if we decide to involve ourselves with it. We've just sold them billions of dollars, I think 10 or $12 billion worth of military equipment. But Xi is pretty serious about making this whole thing as a very hands off operation.

[Armstrong]

Where's the reality on this? Just as an outside observer, it seems to me that China's way got the upper hand just because of their proximity. If they decided to take Taiwan, it would be really hard for us to stop them.

[Mike Lyons]

It would, it would require US Forces firing missiles into mainland China, which would then, you know, start this war. That's the only way you could, you could possibly stop this and, you know, to keep them from taking it. And I think right now our mentality has been, well, besides strategic ambiguity about it, it's this kind of porcupine. Just give Taiwan enough equipment that it would take the cost of taking it militarily so high, similar to what we thought would have happened in Ukraine. The cost of it was too high. It didn't stop the Russians there. Again, for China to be a global power, though, in this century, and we're all convincing ourselves that China is the rising power and the US Is the falling power, I just don't buy that yet. We're a quarter of the way into the century and China has still yet flexed any kind of military muscle or any kind of military might in that regard. Now, this would be like anything else would be considered an easier military operation to your point, because of proximity. But it could start a very large conflict in the region that, frankly, I'm not sure the US Would give up potentially a West coast city for. If they decide to fire a Nuclear weapon at it. Based on what we're doing, man, it

[Armstrong]

is the headlines everywhere that I'm looking that Taiwan emerges as key topic and all that sort of thing, where we were kind of hoping to make it a back burner topic, but that is not the way things have turned out. Okay, well, I'm glad I got to ask you all about that. So you've got this [e-mail] about AI and how the next summit between China and the United States should be cooperation over AI. I could talk about AI all day long. I don't know if you've aware of this, but I read all the books, I listen to all the podcasts. I'm fascinated by the topic. What's your take on it from a military standpoint?

[Mike Lyons]

Well, I think I put my Cold War hat on again and look back and say AI is a potential nuclear weapon that can destroy the Earth if we let it involve with targeting and if we let it make decisions. Think of the Terminator, and it's not a joke anymore. We're operating a war right now at scale with AI in terms of our targeting and closing the kill chain, the time in between we recognize a target and then can engage that target. And we've got to get with China to create somewhat of like another SALT treaty, a Strategic Arms Limit Treaty. Treat it like it's a nuclear weapon. Get them and us to agree to certain red lines about where AI is used and specifically the offense. You know, it's one thing to use AI techniques in the defense, as Israel does with its Iron Dome. Iron Dome is fundamentally all AI driven. A rocket's coming at Israel. The computer decides whether or not to engage that rocket or not. It's not a human pulling the trigger. Well, if you had that on the offense, that just creates a whole different set of variables that you might not be able to ever stop. So you can get what's. Instead of having Mutually Assured Destruction, which is a strategic deterrence of nuclear weapons, you could have, you know, mutually automated destruction, where once it starts, both sides would be completely destroyed just based on automation alone. So we've got to sit down with them very quickly and get. Get both sides to agree on certain red lines when it comes to the military use of artificial intelligence.

[Armstrong]

Yeah, well, of course, you know, the wild card is if it goes to artificial general intelligence or super general intelligence that, you know, there might not be any controlling AI at all by anyone. So that's. Yeah, that's out there as a possibility. I'm glad you're taking it this seriously. I feel like it's that big a deal too and it just isn't getting enough talk.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, I think, I think a lot of it just has to do with the decisions are being made in corporate America by the AI companies and what they're going to do and what they're not going to do. When it comes to giving our government, I think that the US or Congress has got to get involved. If there's a uniform code similar to the way the President conducts covert operations, we need to put a US code in place that says this is how we're going to use artificial intelligence and this is how the military will use it and codify it in law and then show that to the Chinese similar to what we did the Russians. Get them to agree on doing it in their side with their military. And again, at least we don't have it in the offense. It's one thing for the defense. I think in the defense, artificial intelligence is a game changer in some ways and it protects you. But doing it in the offense is really where the red line has to be drawn.

[Armstrong]

If you're interested in this topic, Mike's got a [e-mail]. so we got to talk about Iran. Obviously we're at war with that country and we seem to be stuck. They, they think they can wait us out, we think we can wait them out. And then there is that news story that came out. It was anonymous quotes from our intelligence, but it seemed pretty well sourced that Iran has way more rockets and missiles and rocket launchers than left than we were led to believe. First of all, do you believe that?

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, I don't.

[Armstrong]

You don't? Okay, good. I hope you're right.

[Mike Lyons]

I mean, again, it's all, it's not even just the rockets themselves, it's all of the systems together and they just can't scale it on any level anymore. It's one thing, you know, to launch a rocket is not just, you know, pointing and shooting. At this point you have to have radars, you have to have fire direction. All the different components of it are destroyed. So it's like having empty weapons. If they have them, I'm sure they have, you know, 50 to 100 or so maybe if, if the fact that they started with 10,000, they started with a large amount, but at scale they just can't deploy them is really what's going on here. So I don't believe any of that at all. I think the wait out period, you know, the President is trying to be as diplomatic as possible. And those of us in the military are like, let's go, come on, let's finish this off. I mean, every single analyst you see on television right now, that's what they're saying. And I think that would be the most viable, quick way to end this thing. But, you know, the president wants to stick to diplomacy right now, so that's what we're going to do.

[Armstrong]

Well, and I think NBA would agree with you, and MBZ over there at the UAE would agree with you. So do you expect that to happen? That's what I expect to happen.

[Mike Lyons]

I do. I think they can't risk leaving Iran weak but still able to move forward. And that's, you know, it does mean regime change. And never seen this historically happen, you know, from the air in that regard. But they're looking for the country to internally collapse economically. But we can't leave them in a situation where in 20 years they're back doing it, you know, another different population, and it's still threatening the Middle East. And this president, again, is taking care of all family business. I think that he's not finishing. He says it all the time. He says it's more important that we take care of the nuclear aspect here. And so I'm glad to see him do it. And it's long overdue.

[Armstrong]

Seems like there's a lot of flashpoints out there right now. Am I wrong?

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, no. In different spots. They can still happen in the Pacific in any of those straits that are there. Venezuela looks like that's going well. You know, talking about making them a 51st state. I think Cuba will get resolved once Iran does, but I think, again, the major one is in the Middle East. And, you know, there's no proxy force that's been out there for Iran right now. We haven't seen terrorist attacks. Could be the calm before the storm. We'll see. Maybe Trump's tried to get China to intervene. I don't think. I don't think there's a lot of people that are not happy with Pakistan being the mediators. They're not Trump, they're not independents here. They're on the side of Iran. And I think you saw Lindsey Graham go kind of crazy over that at a Senate hearing the other day. Maybe China was going to get involved. Trump's doing whatever he can, but I think he's very Machiavellian. He's treating China, he's flattering them. He's doing all he can, but he's also brought the hammer. He's not looking to be loved he still wants to be feared by them.

[Armstrong]

That's Mike Lyons. You can read his AI piece the next summit that Trump should have at defense.com you can follow him at ma J Mike Lyons on Twitter. Thanks for your time today, Mike. Appreciate that.

[Mike Lyons]

Yeah, thanks. Yeah, thanks for having me.

[Armstrong]

Was it oh real defense.com sorry is just under lend defense.com clear defense.com realclear defense.com what is the actual title here, Michael? Okay. Why is it only [e-mail] okay, it's real clear, defense, calm. Sorry about that. I got another comment about that. But first I got to tell you this about Incogni, which is just really, really a good idea. I hate the fact that every time I have to give somebody my name, address, phone number, whatever, then they have that information and they sell it to somebody. Then everybody has it or sometimes they steal it and then I get all these texts and emails and sometimes they're people trying to steal from me and blah. I hate the whole thing. You need incog. That's what we do. Incog. They actually go to the data brokers because they know who they are and they use the laws that already exist and force these people to take your information off there. And you're going to notice a drop in spam texts, emails and calls right away protecting you from all this stuff. Real digital threats, they can't scam you if they can't find you. Take your personal data back. With Incogni, that's I n C O G N I. That's how it's spelled. Get 60 off the regular price when you use the code Armstrong and incogni.com Armstrong that's 60 off when you use the code [e-mail] Armstrong incogni.com Armstrong so I hope Mike Lyons is right. He has a lot of sources himself. In the pushback against that big story, the New York Times had the other day saying that Iran still retains something like 70% of their rockets. And 30 out of 35 I think they said of the rocket launchers right there along the straight of Hormuz. Mike doesn't believe that. I hope he's right. Would the New York Times go with some analyst that wants to make Trump look bad? Hell yeah they would. So what's actually the truth? I don't know. But. But in terms of hoping, I hope Mike's right.

[Mike Lyons]

Armstrong and Getty.

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