Trying to Outcrazy the Crazies.  Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

Summary

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Armstrong & Getty On Demand

Episode: Trying to Outcrazy the Crazies – Mike Lyons Talks to A&G

Date: April 10, 2026
Guest: Mike Lyons, Military Analyst
Host: Armstrong & Getty

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Armstrong & Getty dive into the increasingly volatile and complex situation in the Gulf region, particularly focusing on U.S.-Iran, Israel, and Lebanon dynamics, with expert insights from military analyst Mike Lyons. The discussion centers on the struggles and frustrations of international diplomacy, the challenge of dealing with “maximalist” demands from Iran, the role of European powers, and rapid technological changes redefining modern warfare.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State of Ceasefire Negotiations and Iran’s Stance

• Host sets the stage for discussion about tangled and fraught peace negotiations involving Iran, Israel, Lebanon, and surrounding powers.
• Mike Lyons highlights the intransigence and maximalism exhibited by Iran in negotiations:

  “I've never seen sides so far apart… they are the most maximalist demands you've ever seen coming from Iran or from really any country, basically saying that they could do whatever they want whenever they want to do it, and they'll do whatever they want to another country whenever they want to do it to them too?” (Mike Lyons, 04:02)

• Lyons doubts negotiations will achieve much, referencing historic U.S. experiences with Iranian negotiations:

  “I'm just not sure this is going to go anywhere. They just don't have a history of negotiating anything, any, you know, giving in on anything whatsoever. I think the Obama administration was completely, you know, taken to the woodshed by these guys and they're going to try. We'll see what happens.” (Mike Lyons, 04:34)

2. Realpolitik: Containment and the Role of U.S. and Allies

• Host: Considers whether containment is the only option left.
• Mike Lyons:

  "We're back to a containment foreign policy. If we can't, you know, get some kind of resolution within the next 14 days, I don't think it's going to take 14 days. I think we're going to draw this conclusion that they're not going to give in on anything before that." (05:07)

• The complex role of Hezbollah and France:

  “The French could get involved with Lebanon and help the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah… Hezbollah has never been any weaker. But they don’t have the military… They just continue to send virtue signaling statements from Paris and hope the United States continues to get the job done.” (Mike Lyons, 05:52)

• Host quips about the French military with a quote:

  “Going into battle without the French is like going hunting without an accordion…” (Host, 06:12)

• Lyons underscores the gap between perceived and actual power of Western European states, raising NATO nuclear weapons concerns:

  "Their perception of their strength in reality versus the actual reality of it. Realpolitik is just again, the Grand Canyon." (06:22) “The French have nuclear weapons… the Germans don’t… there’s issues about that nuclear non proliferation that ties NATO together.” (Mike Lyons, 06:52)

3. The Impossible Dream of Peace with Hezbollah

• Host points out the unreality of any Israel-Hezbollah agreement, describing Hezbollah as both political party and armed force.

  "If people aren't familiar, it's a heavily armed political party that's also an army… coming to a peace agreement with Hezbollah at this point… that's fantasy land, isn't it?" (Host, 07:20)

• Lyons draws a strong line between Hezbollah and groups like the IRA:

  “This is not, you know, the IRA that years ago decided to put its arms down and become part of the political process... But this is not, this is a fight for survival on their side. This is die to the death. This is how they operate.” (Mike Lyons, 07:49)

• He uses history to draw a parallel with Japan’s WWII defeat, suggesting militant “tactical victories” only lead to downfall:

  “Japan had a tremendous tactical victory on December 7, but… it ended up leading to… the fundamental demise of their country… The Arab nation or the terrorist organization Hezbollah, Hamas. And Iran has this great tactical victory on October 7th a few years back. But it's going to lead to their downfall for sure.” (07:49)

4. The Straits of Hormuz: Control and Military Dilemmas

• Host asks if the Straits can be opened without Iran’s cooperation.
• Lyons' analysis:

  "Doesn't look like it. It looks like the IRGC still controls it because the threat is still coming. From a military perspective, it's those coastline batteries that could potentially fire on a container vessel or a ship that's going there and ballistic missiles. There's still mines there." (Mike Lyons, 08:53)

• International cooperation mentioned, but U.S. Navy will have to take charge—hint at likely future U.S. military action to protect shipping.

  “I think the next military mission is going to be looking for the Navy to really force that issue and protect carriers and protect the container ships going through there... I think that's what the President's going to ask the Navy soon to do.” (Mike Lyons, 09:31)

5. Tech & Warfare: Drones and Real-Time Innovation

• Host brings up NATO drone training in Estonia and David Petraeus' comments on how drones are redefining war.
• Lyons describes the rapid adaptation cycle in Ukraine, notably AI-driven targeting:

  “We try to import some of that technology into what we’re doing… technology was able to find [a downed pilot], help locate him using AI, by his heart rate, by his heart murmur.” (Mike Lyons, 10:17 and 10:36)

• Emphasizes Ukraine’s “incredible” agility in accelerating the decision and targeting process:

  “Ukraine gets up every day and figures out how it’s going to survive... Their industrial military complex in terms of building the drone technology, the software they implement in it... Ukraine has been incredible in terms of that kill chain, from a military’s perspective, in helping them survive. And it’s definitely the future of warfare.” (Mike Lyons, 10:47)

• Host raises the cumbersome U.S. procurement process.
• Lyons promotes agile procurement and his own writing on the subject:

  "If you're a startup, innovative company... It's all about taking things commercially off the shelf and getting them quickly to the hands of the war fighters... trying to break that cycle of these long acquisitions. It's called the Valley of death when you have a good idea and it dies... This Trump administration is trying to do that. And I think that's a really good move." (Mike Lyons, 11:47)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Trying to out crazy the crazy people on some level talking to the Iranians in language they understand.”
  – Mike Lyons, referencing Trump’s communication style and diplomatic approach (04:17)
• “I've never seen sides so far apart...they just don't have a history of negotiating anything.”
  – Mike Lyons, on the impossibility of current negotiations (04:02)
• "The French could get involved...But they just continue to send virtue signaling statements from Paris and hope the United States continues to get the job done."
  – Mike Lyons, on France’s reluctance or inability to act in Lebanon (05:45)
• "Going into battle without the French is like going hunting without an accordion."
  – Host quoting Norman Schwarzkopf (06:12)
• "This is not...the IRA...this is a fight for survival on their side. This is die to the death."
  – Mike Lyons, contrasting Hezbollah’s nature with historic conflicts (07:49)
• “Technology was able to find [a pilot], help locate him using AI, by his heart rate, by his heart murmur.”
  – Mike Lyons, on AI’s cutting-edge role in search and rescue/targeting (10:36)
• “Ukraine has been incredible in terms of that kill chain, from a military’s perspective, in helping them survive. And it's definitely the future of warfare.”
  – Mike Lyons, praising Ukraine’s innovation under fire (10:47)
• “It’s called the Valley of death when you have a good idea and it dies in between when you get funding for it. This Trump administration is trying to do that. And I think that's a really good move.”
  – Mike Lyons, about reforming military acquisitions (12:32)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:08 – Mike Lyons introduces the deadlock and maximalism in Iran negotiations.
• 04:02 – Insights on why negotiations are so unproductive.
• 05:07 – Discussion of containment and allied roles, France and Hezbollah.
• 06:12 – Host quotes Schwarzkopf’s French military analogy.
• 07:20 – Breakdown of why peace with Hezbollah is “fantasy land.”
• 08:53 – Lyons details military challenges in opening the Straits of Hormuz.
• 09:43 – Conversation pivots to drone warfare and Ukraine’s lessons.
• 10:36 – Use of AI in tactical operations.
• 11:47 – Critique of procurement bureaucracy and perspectives on innovation.
• 12:45 – Lyons recommends his article on innovation and acquisition.

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Episode Tone & Takeaways

• The atmosphere is frank, pragmatic, and occasionally wry; the host and guest are skeptical of progress through diplomacy, outright dismissing current negotiations as fundamentally incompatible.
• European allies are portrayed as inconsistent or unwilling to take meaningful risks, strengthening the sense of American burden-sharing frustration.
• The technological revolution in warfare, with Ukraine as a case study, injects hope and urgency, pressing the U.S. to adapt procurement and deployment with greater agility.

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Conclusion

This episode is a deep dive into the diplomatic and military dysfunction in the Middle East, the paradoxes of alliance politics, and a snapshot of how innovation (especially drones and AI) is pressing militaries to rethink how fast they must adapt. Lyons delivers expertise delivered with skepticism, and the conversation strikes a balance between humor, history, and urgency about the challenges ahead.

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Transcript

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[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

If Iran wants to let this negotiation fall apart in a conflict where they were getting hammered over Lebanon, which has nothing to do with them, and which the United States never once said was part of the ceasefire, that's ultimately their choice. We think that would be dumb, but that's their choice.

[Podcast Host]

The dizzying situation in the Gulf, the Straits of Hormuz, the U.S. iran, Israel, Lebanon and all the players. Let's dive right into it with military analyst Mike Lyons. Mike, welcome. How are you today?

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Great to be back with you.

[Podcast Host]

Great. Always good to have you. So, you know, I think both of us have probably read about, studied various peace agreements through history and how some of them were a bit rocky or, you know, there are hidden elements that the layman didn't learn about until many years later. I don't recall anything as wobbly and complicated as this in recent memory.

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Yeah, I've never seen sides so far apart. I mean, I guess the 15 points on our side versus the 10 on their side, they are the most maximalist demands you've ever seen coming from Iran or from really any country, basically saying that they could do whatever they want whenever they want to do it, and they'll do whatever they want to another country whenever they want to do it to them too? So I don't know where this will start. You know, Trump, I think had originally be of the week with a lot of his tweets and comments where he's just kind of trying to out crazy the crazy people on some level talking to the Iranians in language they understand. I'm just not sure they understand any language. I'm just not sure this is going to go anywhere. They just don't have a history of negotiating anything, any, you know, giving in on anything whatsoever. I think the Obama administration was completely, you know, taken to the woodshed by these guys and they're going to try. We'll see what happens.

[Podcast Host]

So is that line of thought leading to the conclusion that the only thing we can do is so reduce their capabilities that the intransigent maniacs that run around Just won't be as dangerous.

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Yeah, I think that's really where we're at. We're back to a containment foreign policy. If we can't, you know, get some kind of resolution within the next 14 days, I don't think it's going to take 14 days. I think we're going to draw this conclusion that they're not going to give in on anything before that. The, the vice President's comment about this being linked to Hezbollah is exactly the point. I mean, Israel has its own security concerns and you know, the fact that the country with 9 million people still punching up against the country with 90 million and doing pretty well, you know, there's a lot of other potential solutions there. The French could get involved with Lebanon and help the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah. That's there. I mean, think about Hezbollah as kind of like a cancer or kind of, you know, that's infected a country for so many years and the civilians and the government does not. Well, if the French, which was what their influence was there, if they'd like to get in the game, they could possibly help the Lebanese government do that. Hezbollah has never been any weaker. But they don't have the military. They don't really choose to do anything. They just continue to send virtue signaling statements from Paris and hope the United States continues to get the job done.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah, I saw the quote from Norman Schwarzkopf recently that I love that going into battle without the French is like going hunting without an accordion, which I thought was.

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Yeah. Again, these countries, their perception of their strength in reality versus the actual reality of it. Realpolitik is just again, the Grand Canyon. It's as wide as this UN Iran debate right now. And so the UK is the same way. I mean, there's going to be real consequences over their actions within the NATO alliance. The NATO alliance is not going away. I think it's going to be strong to have. But again, their perception of their reality and their actual strength remains to be seen. Look, the French have nuclear weapons, though. That's the other thing to this. I mean, so they can decide to maybe back off and then control Spain, but the Germans don't. The Germans, we don't want them to have nuclear weapons. You know, there's other issues about that nuclear non proliferation that we want to keep and that's one of the things that ties NATO together.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah. I was going to feature a little bit later on in the show an absolutely terrific piece of writing. I came across by a woman who's an author and commentator and Thinker on the this sort of issue. And the piece is entitled why the West Won't Call this a Holy War. And I'm thinking about Hezbollah in Lebanon, which if people aren't familiar, it's a heavily armed political party that's also an army. If you can picture the insanity of that Israel quote unquote coming to an agreement and a peace agreement with Hezbollah at this point, that just. That's fantasy land, isn't it? Especially from the Israeli perspective.

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Exactly. This is not, you know, the IRA that years ago decided to put its arms down and become part of the political process, joined the current government there and had a representative and the like. But this is not, this is a fight for survival on their side. This is die to the death. This is how they operate. And it's, you know, similar to what happened in the Second World War in terms of how badly you know, those countries at the time. Look, Japan, Japan had a tremendous tactical victory on December 7, but look where that ended up leading to. It ended up being to the fundamental demise of their country back then. And I think that's the same historical analogy taking place right now. The Arab nation or the terrorist organization Hezbollah, Hamas. And Iran has this great tactical victory on October 7th a few years back. But it's going to lead to their downfall for sure.

[Podcast Host]

I certainly hope it does. More on that to come. We're talking to military analysts, Mike Lyons. So Mike, let's get down to brass tax. Is there any opening the Straits of Hormuz without the consent of whoever is running Iran?

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Doesn't look like it. It looks like the IRGC still controls it because the threat is still coming. From a military perspective, it's those coastline batteries that could potentially fire on a container vessel or a ship that's going there and ballistic missiles. There's still mines there. We could use the help of the British and other NATO countries that have some capability with some of their minesweeping and then also some of the asymmetrical fast boating that takes place. And so no insur insurance company still going to get involved right now. So I think the next military mission is going to be looking for the Navy to really force that issue and protect carriers and protect the container ships going through there. You're going to see possibly a stepped up escort mission. I know the Navy's been hesitant to do that from my sources, but I think that's what the President's going to ask the Navy soon to do.

[Podcast Host]

Wow, interesting. Okay, let's change topics completely. Another really interesting piece of journalism I came across was a gal whose name I don't recall, but she was embedded with the NATO troops as they were doing drone training in Estonia, I think it was last week. And that's obviously a fascinating topic. And it was. David Petraeus was over there, or at least commenting on it, and he said, look, you need to understand this is changing the face of warfare completely. How do you think we're doing on that learning curve, the United States and our allies?

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Well, we're hanging on to it, we're watching closely, and we try to import some of that technology into what we're doing. I mean, you saw, for example, the fact that we're locating this pilot using some heart murmur technology that can pick him out, you know, 40 miles away, based on AI. So is that right?

[Podcast Host]

I hadn't heard that. Yeah. Tell us more about that.

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Yeah, so, I mean, again, with these kind of conflicts, all this technology comes off the shelf and this technology was able to find him, help locate him using AI, by his heart rate, by his heart murmur.

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[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

And so, yeah, I mean, so again, this. And so now bring that same mentality. Ukraine gets up every day and figures out how it's going to survive. So they have to figure out how to close the kill chain right this time, and distance between when they know there's a target and when they can kill the target. And what they've done is just phenomenal. Their industrial military complex in terms of building the drone technology, the software they implement in it, and then once it faces off to the enemy and they see the reaction to it changing the software, so it becomes more survival. Ukraine has been incredible in terms of that kill chain, from a military's perspective, in helping them survive. And it's definitely the future of warfare.

[Podcast Host]

And you would know this a lot better than I would, I'm told. The procurement process has in the past been. Well, it can make a person insane. Whereas now, you know, it's gotta be, if I need a certain drill bit, I run to the store, I've got that drill bit in 20 minutes. Now, that's not practical. But what about that topic and how we need to change our procurement?

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Give you a shameless self promotion. A couple months ago, I wrote an article for Rear Clear Defense on the new systems, the new playbook, in order to succeed in doing that, if you're a startup, innovative company, because Pete Hexted has changed that. He's changed the entire process of how you can bring this lethality to the war fighters. And it's all about taking Things commercially off the shelf and getting them quickly to the hands of the war fighters. Innovation centers like Softworks in Tampa, Florida, working with special operators and again, shrinking this distance in time between when they need something and Tinwell actually shows up on the battlefield. So I'd urge your listeners to go take a look at that article if they're doing an innovative startup company and help them to get to do government work, because that's what this is all about. They're trying to break that cycle of these long acquisitions. It's called the Valley of death when you have a good idea and it dies in between when you get funding for it. This Trump administration is trying to do that. And I think that's a really good move.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah. Interestingly enough, my brother is in that very line of work. Mike, send us a link to that article. Why don't we post it so everybody can flock to it and read it?

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Be sure we'll let her. Yeah, for sure.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah. Okay. Military analyst Mike Lyons. Mike, as always, we appreciate the thoughts and the wisdom. Great to talk to you and have a good weekend.

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Thanks, sir. You too. Have a great one.

[Podcast Host]

All right, thanks. Thanks. Yeah, where this goes, nobody knows. It is. Maybe I lack imagination, but I'm using my feeble brain power, such as it is, to try to figure out how we get from. This side is saying these things and demanding these things. And this side is, you know, got its own set of demands and they are utterly incompatible. The Iranian regime is completely intransigent. They're either religious fanatics or dead enders because they will be, as Jack likes to put it, hung upside down in the town square as the end of their days. If they don't hold on to power, there's going to be no saying, hey, I said some harsh things. You said some harsh things. I tortured dissidents. You know, we all make mistakes. You can have power now. No, these people are going to be killed. So they are dead enders.

[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Armstrong and Gettysburg.

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[Military Analyst Mike Lyons]

Com.