Using Us to Beat Us. Josh Rogin Talks to A&G

Summary

Armstrong & Getty On Demand

Episode: "Using Us to Beat Us. Josh Rogin Talks to A&G"
Date: July 8, 2026
Guest: Josh Rogin, Global Security Analyst, Washington Post

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Episode Overview

In this episode, hosts Armstrong & Getty are joined by Josh Rogin, global security analyst at the Washington Post, to unpack the latest tensions in U.S.-China relations following a provocative Chinese military demonstration near Taiwan. The discussion then shifts to the evolving economic "war" between the U.S. and China—focusing on supply chains, American corporate interests, and the challenges of disentangling the two economies. Rogin also shares views on U.S. foreign policy, particularly as it relates to Ukraine, Russia, and the Trump administration’s current diplomatic activity.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Chinese Missile Activity Near Taiwan (00:25–03:00)

• Recent Event: China fired a missile/rocket near Taiwan, escalating ongoing tension.

  • Josh Rogin: “What the Chinese are doing is that they’re slowly but surely proving that they have the ability to take Taiwan anytime of their choosing and that there’s nothing that we’re really going to do about it.” (00:57)
  • The Chinese approach is described as "salami slicing”—incremental moves designed to normalize aggression.
  • U.S. arms sales to Taiwan are currently delayed, possibly for political reasons—especially President Trump not wanting to anger Xi Jinping ahead of a White House meeting.

• On U.S. Response:

  • Rogin lists possible responses: diplomatic, political, economic, or military—but laments that “we’re not doing any of those.”

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The U.S.-China Economic Relationship (03:00–07:23)

• Decoupling Debate:
  • The hosts query whether the "great decoupling" between the U.S. and China is happening or inevitable.
  • Josh Rogin: “Anyone who says we're going to completely decouple with China is not right. And anyone who says that we don't have to decouple at all is not right.” (03:25)
  • Rogin argues it’s vital to draw clear lines: What must be protected due to national security, and what can remain entangled?
  • Critical: Technology, essential medicine ingredients, and pandemic-related supplies need independence from China.
  • The challenge: “Nobody really seems to be engaged in like a sober, kind of real, you know, careful examination of how to deal with this U.S.–China relationship because everything’s so crazy all the time.” (04:41)

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Pentagon’s List of Chinese Military-Linked Companies (05:03–07:23)

• New Pentagon Report:

  • The Pentagon released a list of Chinese companies allegedly tied to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
  • Hosts note that “all companies in China are tied to the government” to some extent.
  • Josh Rogin: “If you think about it like they got a point... the technology that the Chinese put into our systems is creating a vulnerability for us. And of course, anything we find technological wise in China is going to go right to their military.” (05:49)

• Biggest Vulnerability is ‘Us’:

  • Rogin points out that U.S. investors and businesses are complicit.
  • Quote: “The reason we can’t really protect ourselves from China is because of us. Because American investors, Wall Street guys, tech guys... they’re in bed with the Chinese... The whole story of the U.S.–China competition is them using us to beat us.” (06:38)

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U.S. Companies and the Risks of Manufacturing in China (07:23–10:34)

• Apple as a Case Study:

  • Host questions if it’s sustainable for Apple to keep producing iPhones in China.
  • Josh Rogin: “They are corporate hostages of the Chinese Communist Party and they know it and everybody knows it.” (07:56)
  • Apple and others are trying to “de-risk” by shifting some manufacturing to places like India, but it will be a bumpy transition.

• China’s Manufacturing Superiority:

  • Despite rising labor costs and geopolitical risks, China remains the best at manufacturing complex, tech-heavy goods.
  • Rogin notes that some companies will continue to shift lower-value manufacturing (e.g., socks) to places like Vietnam for cost savings.

• Systemic Challenge:

  • U.S. tariffs and economic measures have hurt American small businesses too.
  • Rogin advises using “a scalpel, not a buzzsaw,” suggesting nuanced strategies.

• Long-Term Outlook:

  • The pattern: “They squeeze you out of their market and then they come to your market and take your lunch. And it happens every single time.” (10:27)

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U.S. Foreign Policy and Ukraine (10:34–12:31)

• Trump, Zelensky, and Putin:

  • The hosts pivot to the upcoming Trump-Zelensky meeting and a Trump-Putin call.
  • Rogin says the Trump administration has largely “washed its hands of this whole Ukraine war”—trying elsewhere (Venezuela, Iran) but now seeing an opening as Russia struggles.
  • Josh Rogin: “The worst thing that could happen to [the Ukrainians] is Trump gets on the phone with Putin’s like, oh, how do we stop this? How do we screw this over?” (11:16)
  • Rogin believes Trump getting involved would likely help Russia.

• Host’s Hope: The host wishes Trump, known for wanting to be associated with winners, will support Ukraine if they continue to win.

• Rogin's Response: He’s skeptical—likening it to lottery odds—and suggests Ukraine's best hope is if Trump “does absolutely nothing.”

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Notable Quotes

• Josh Rogin:
  • “The whole story of the US China competition is them using us to beat us. And that’s the conundrum, that’s the situation we’re in.” (06:41)
  • “Apple … are corporate hostages of the Chinese Communist Party and they know it and everybody knows it.” (07:56)
  • “In the end … They squeeze you out of their market and then they come to your market and take your lunch. And it happens every single time.” (10:27)
  • "[On Ukraine] … the best thing for the Ukrainians is if Trump does absolutely nothing, if he gets bored quicker." (12:25)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:25 – Introduction of Josh Rogin
• 00:57–03:00 – China’s military moves near Taiwan and lack of U.S. response
• 03:00–05:03 – The new phase of U.S.-China economic relations and the decoupling debate
• 05:03–07:23 – Pentagon’s list of PLA-linked Chinese companies and U.S. business complicity
• 07:23–10:34 – Manufacturing/supply chains, Apple in China, and the economic reality for U.S. firms
• 10:34–12:31 – U.S. foreign policy focus shifts to Ukraine, Trump, Russia, and diplomatic speculation

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Memorable Moments

• Rogin’s framing of U.S. business as a “weakest link” in the country’s defense against China stands out as both candid and incisive.
• The analogy of American firms as “corporate hostages”—especially Apple—is particularly striking.
• The extended metaphor of “using us to beat us” neatly encapsulates the show’s main theme.

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This episode is essential listening for anyone interested in U.S.-China relations, supply chain dilemmas, and the entanglement of business interests with international security. Rogin’s candid assessments pull no punches and the hosts keep the conversation accessible, direct, and fast-paced.

Transcript

[Josh Rogin]

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Listen to the Joel Osteen Daily podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your favorite podcasts. We'd like to wait. Welcome to the show. Josh Rogan. We're big fans of Josh. He is the global security analyst at the Washington Post and he writes all kinds of really interesting. Hey, Josh. Interesting stuff. Hey, Josh, we were just talking about while we waited to get you on that missile or rocket or whatever you want to call it, that China fired yesterday. How big a deal is that?

[Josh Rogin]

Yeah, I mean, I think it's a big deal, especially if you're living in Taiwan right now, because what the Chinese are doing is that they're slowly but surely proving that they have the ability to take Taiwan anytime of their choosing and that there's nothing that we're really going to do about it. And, you know, we call it like salami slicing. Like, it's not that any one rocket or any one maneuver is really changing the game per se, is that the more that they do this stuff and we don't react, the more that everybody in the region knows that, like, you know, they could take Taiwan at any time and there's nothing that we're really going to do about it. So, yeah, it's pretty, it's a pretty bad situation.

[Podcast Host]

Well, I want to get to the piece you wrote, the reason we had you on, but since we're on this topic, you said they fired it off. We don't react. What, what, in what way could we react, you know, or should we react according to you?

[Josh Rogin]

Yeah, I mean, we're in a situation right now where US Arms sales to Taiwan have been delayed. There's no explanat. There's no rationale. They're overdue. You know, most of the Trump people say that the president doesn't want to anger Xi Jinping before he invites Xi Jinping to come to the White House in September so he won't give Taiwan the arms. Now, that's a pretty big signal. Okay. That's a pretty. That's the main thing that people in Taiwan are watching. And then in Taiwan, you have this whole debate, should we, you know, buy things from the United States Maybe we should just get closer to China. And all of our friends in Taiwan, all the people who are on the side that we're on, which is against the Chinese, are, you know, we've left them twisting in the wind, and they're not so happy about it. So we're helping the Taiwanese opposition in its mission to move Taiwan closer to Beijing. And then when Beijing does something like this, you know. Yeah. I mean, there are a lot of things you could do. You could have a diplomatic reaction, you could have a political reaction, you could have an economic reaction, you could have a military reaction, but we're not doing any of those. Presumably, everybody knows, because President Trump doesn't want to anger his friends, Xi Jinping, before he invites him to the White House. That's the situation we're in. That's why I say it's not good.

[Podcast Host]

So your piece, the next phase in the U.S. china Economic War is here. We've been expecting, or I've been expecting, the great decoupling to happen at some point. I've felt like it's inevitable. How could you possibly have your economies intertwined the way China and the United States economies have been for years, if you're sworn enemies fighting for dominance of the planet? So where are we now?

[Josh Rogin]

Right. I mean, it's complicated, I think, you know, anyone who says we're going to completely decouple with China is not right. And anyone who says that we don't have to decouple at all is not right. There's. It's. It's the. The major intellectual policy, political choice of our time. The most important thing we have to do, sort of as a government, as a society, is figure out where to draw those lines, where what are the things we have to protect and what are the things we don't? You know, like, do we really want to import all of our bicycle and toy manufacturing to here, or is that okay? You know, my view, that's okay. We can buy toys and bicycles from China. Really. No national security cost to that, that I could see. Right. On the other hand, missile technology and AI, that kind of stuff, we should probably keep to ourselves. And then the things that we're dependent on them for. Okay, well, you know, if you remember the pandemic a few years ago, you remember that they kept everything that we needed, from the masks to the ventilators, you name it. So the chemicals that make our medicines, there are certain things that we're going to need to be able to produce without China and technology is up there. The things that we need for. Because we can't trust those guys. It's pretty clear. So I think that's really what we're doing right now is we're trying to figure out what to, what to protect and what not to protect. But that's hard to do in a good environment. We're not in a good environment because, you know, American politics is crazy, Chinese politics is crazy, the world's on fire. And nobody really seems to be engaged in like, kind of like a sober, kind of real, you know, careful examination of like how to deal with this US China relationship because everything's so crazy all the time.

[Podcast Host]

Well, as you wrote, the Pentagon has released just recently this updated list of Chinese companies it claims are tied to the People's Liberation Army. Well, all companies in China are, are tied to the government. I mean, you're not allowed to operate unless you are tied to the Communist Party in some way and the Communist Party's tied to the army in a lot of ways. So I'm not exactly sure what this list is. Well, what does it mean?

[Josh Rogin]

Yeah, so it's a perfect example. So the Pentagon comes out with this report and they say, you know, all these Chinese companies are linked to the Chinese military. We probably shouldn't do business with them, especially the US Military shouldn't do business with them. But it's like pretty much every Chinese company, Alibaba, the car companies, byd, all the drug companies, this one called Guji, which like, you know, is all over America with like medical technology. And you know, if you think about it like they got a point, you know, like, of course the technology that the Chinese put into our systems is creating a vulnerability for us. And of course, anything we finding technological wise and China is going to go right to their military. It's true. At the same time, you know, if we're going to like not do business with all of these companies, well, there's going to be a lot of Wall street guys and a lot of like US businesses that are going to be out on their toses because, you know, they're all, they're all in bed with these guys. And that's the real story here, is that the reason we can't really protect ourselves from China is because of us. Because American investors, Wall street guys, tech guys, not all of them, but some of them, they're in bed with the Chinese. They, they're in business with them, they're funding them, they're helping them in the Chinese effort to beat us. You know, the reason that China has gone from like a, you Know, a back, backwoods kind of like rural society to like perhaps the most technologically advanced country in the world in 80 years is because of us. Americans paid for it. They stole some of the technology. We, we sold them some, we gave them some. And essentially the whole story of the US China competition is them using us to beat us. And that's the conundrum, that's the situation we're in. That's why it's such a. Blows people's minds. Because the biggest vulnerable, the biggest we can, the, the weakest link in the chain is actually us.

[Podcast Host]

Right? So you know, you're talking about various products, companies that you're okay with, you know, Schwinn making bicycle. I don't know if Schwinn makes their bicycles in China, but they probably do whatever it is, whatever it okay with that. But do you think going forward it makes sense that Apple, one of the most valuable companies in the world and their biggest product is the iPhone, that they're made in China? I mean, is that sustainable?

[Josh Rogin]

I mean it is, but not for free. You know, like you could do anything but not at no cost. And the cost for Apple is that they are corporate hostage of the Chinese Communist Party and they know it and everybody knows it. So when the Chinese government comes in knocking and they say, okay, well now, you know, you can't have any Hong Kong songs on Apple music. They're like, okay, you know, like what are they going to say, you know? And you know, oh, by the way, that factory that you own in, in China, you don't own that, that's actually our factory. We can tell you how to run it. Well, there's nothing they can say. So they're trying to again, not decouple, but de risk, move half of it to India, see what happens. It's not going to be pretty for the first few years, but in the long term that's probably much better plan like they're trying. So a lot of these American companies are just corporate hostages. Some of them are doing it more willingly than others. And in the end it's all going in one direction, which is that, you know, any American company that sort of makes that sort of devil's bargain, which is like, okay, we're going to, you know, give you all of our technology in exchange for access to your market and your cheap labor eventually that, that, that doesn't work out in the long run, they're going to steal the technology and try to steal your business and often succeed. But for some CEO in some corporate office somewhere that's another guy's problem. That's the next CEO's problem. So that's why these things keep happening.

[Podcast Host]

Fair to say that if you were going to start, if Apple was going to open its first iPhone factory, you wouldn't choose China today?

[Josh Rogin]

Well, no, but I mean, let's give the Chinese credit. They have the best manufacturing system in the world by far. They can out manufacture us times a thousand, and their manufacturing is good. The problem is the labor is not as cheap as it used to be. You know, they're actually pricing themselves out because you could get cheaper. If you want to make socks, you want to make them in China, you make them in Vietnam, it's much cheaper. But if you want to make, you know, some like some sort of widget that has some sort of technology in it, China is by far the best place to manufacture. So I get it. These American companies are. They're in a bind. Like, you know, when we put all those tariffs on China, that screwed lots of American small businesses. And that's unintended effect of our economic war with China. So you got to, you got to do these things with a scalpel, not with a, you know, buzzsaw. But at the same time, you know, I see more and more CEOs, even more investors, even the investors are waking up and some of the tech guys, not all of them, but some of them and be like, oh, wait, this is not good for our business. It's not. It's not good for the country. But maybe they don't care about that. It's also not good for the business because in the end, the way it works is they squeeze you out of their market and then they come to your market and take your lunch. And it happens every single time.

[Podcast Host]

That's really interesting stuff. Josh Rogan, before we let you go, and you don't have to hit me with solid reporting on this, just you're a smart guy who follows the world. And I wonder your opinion. Trump's meeting with Zelensky tomorrow, then he's talking to Putin on the phone. Where are we with all that?

[Josh Rogin]

Yeah, no, I mean, I think the reporting actually is pretty consistent. It's the same as what I'm hearing is that, you know, the, the Trump administration sort of washed its hands of this whole Ukraine war. They tried for a while, didn't work out. They're like, they just moved on. They had other things to worry about because they only got two guys doing all the negotiations. So they can't really do all at once. So they Went to Venezuela, then Iran. And now they think there's an opening. They think there's an opening because Putin's getting his butt kicked, and he's now trying to get Trump to reengaged. Because every time Trump reengages, that's good for Russia and bad for Ukraine. So the Ukrainians, like, what. They're. They're finally winning. They're finally, you know, through their own grit and innovation and, you know, they created the best drones in the world and, you know, started to bring the fight home to the Russians. And the worst thing that could happen to them is Trump gets on the phone with Putin's like, oh, how do we stop this? How do we screw this over? And that's the fear, I think, that, you know, the Ukrainians are. They have to, like, you know, they'd love to stop the war, but they can't. You can't look at the Trump, Putin relationship and be like, oh, that's going to be a really good thing if. If this guy gets back. And I'm.

[Podcast Host]

I'm hoping that that Trump, because, you know, he likes to be on the winning side of things, if that he gets convinced that Ukraine's winning and so he wants to back the winning side, I hope that's what happens.

[Josh Rogin]

Yeah. And, you know, and I. I hope I win the lottery. I hope, you know, I hope the Eagles win every super bowl from now until the day I die. More likely, that's not gonna happen. More likely, Trump is gonna meddle in a way that's horrible and then get bored. And the best thing for the Ukrainians is if Trump does absolutely nothing, if he gets bored quicker.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah, that's probably a pretty good point. Always appreciate your time. Let them win. Yeah, that's a good one. Lead global security analyst at Washington Post Intelligence, Josh Rogan. Thanks for your time today.

[Josh Rogin]

Anytime.

[Podcast Host]

Yeah, man. There was a report that came out in the New York Times about the lifespan of Russian troops on the front line, and it was something like 20 minutes. You get to the front line, you're likely to be dead in minutes. That's how bad it is. We'll have to talk about that later. God, it's gruesome, but I'll put that off for a while. We'll talk about some other stuff next.

[Josh Rogin]

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