We Can't Turn Our Backs on China. Bill Gertz talks to A&G

Summary

Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: Armstrong & Getty On Demand
Episode Title: We Can't Turn Our Backs on China. Bill Gertz talks to A&G
Release Date: August 10, 2026
Guest: Bill Gertz (Washington Times columnist, China affairs author)
Host(s): Joe (Armstrong & Getty—only Joe present this episode)

---

Episode Overview

This episode centers on U.S. military readiness, particularly missile and munitions stockpiles in light of recent conflicts, and the broader strategic threat posed by China. Joe interviews Bill Gertz, an expert in defense and Chinese affairs, for a deep dive into critical national security issues: munitions shortages, shifts in U.S. defense posture, China’s aggression in the South China Sea, and the risks of American complacency.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

U.S. Weapons Stockpiles & Military Readiness

[01:14–04:41]

• Transparency About Stockpiles:

  • Gertz references a recent defense policy bill requiring the Pentagon to report on the impact of U.S. weapons use abroad, specifically how it affects deterrence against China.
    • Bill Gertz [02:13]: “...the current Defense policy bill in the House of Representatives contains a section that calls on the Pentagon to report the effects of unplanned global taskings, in other words, the use of weapons and how that could affect our ability to deter China.”
  • Although leaders like SecDef Pete Hegseth and the President claim adequate stockpiles, Gertz asserts there are “shortages of missiles and especially missile defense interceptors.”

• Purpose of ‘Leaks’:

  • Joe asks if leaks about stockpile levels are meant to spur urgency.
  • Gertz notes some political posturing but stresses that concern over munitions is bipartisan and substantiated (mentions a Heritage Foundation report and urgent Pentagon communication with defense contractors).
    • Bill Gertz [03:21]: “Most of the mainstream media is virulently anti-Trump... But I think it’s a real issue aside from that fact... The Heritage foundation... just produced a report recently which raised this issue of the shortage of missiles and missile defense interceptors.”

• Is It a Crisis?

  • Gertz says it’s not a full-blown crisis yet, but the U.S. is “dangerously low” on certain munitions.
  • The risk: if China perceives weakness—especially regarding commitment to defend Taiwan—they could “miscalculate.”
    • Bill Gertz [04:41]: “I don’t think it’s an emergency... But if the Chinese feel like we don't have enough missiles to go to war with them over Taiwan, they could miscalculate and make a move towards Taiwan.”

• Impact of Iran Conflict:

  • Heavy use of interceptors against Iranian drones likely depleted stocks; drones create a costly asymmetry (“knocking a $10,000 weapon down with a $5 million weapon” – Joe [06:03]).

---

The Strategic Challenge from China

[06:03–12:45]

• China’s Long Game:

  • Gertz frames China as the top strategic threat, using its economic gains of the last decades to fuel ideological and military expansion.
    • Bill Gertz [07:09]: “Chinese are on the march ideologically and militarily... They’ve stolen technology, built up their economy... now using their newfound economic power to expand what they call Marxism Leninism with Chinese characteristics.”

• Aggression in the South China Sea:

  • China’s ‘nine-dash line’ claim covers 90% of the South China Sea—invalidated by a 2016 international tribunal, but China ignores the ruling.
  • Tactics include bullying the Philippines with water cannons and lasers (targeting ship crews’ eyes).
  • The sea is vital—over $5 trillion in trade passes through it annually.

• Rising Regional Tensions:

  • China increases propaganda and pressure on Japan, especially as Japan considers nuclear options due to threats from China and North Korea.
  • Taiwan remains a critical flashpoint.

• U.S. Policy Response—Too “Quiet”?

  • Gertz criticizes the Pentagon’s new approach—“quiet diplomacy-oriented denial defense”—as failing to meet the information warfare challenge.
    • Bill Gertz [09:29]: “They’re not going to challenge China’s aggressive activities. It’s a really foolish policy in my view... If we take a quiet approach to that, we're going to be in a world of hurt because they're going to use that for strategic means...”

---

U.S. Naval Presence & Diplomatic Posture

[10:09–12:30]

• U.S. and Allied Patrols:

  • The U.S. conducts patrols (carrier group recently in Vietnam) and encourages allies to do the same, but avoids direct confrontation over Chinese use of force against Philippine vessels.
  • Treaty commitments exist, but actual U.S. response has been “cautious.”

• Detente with China:

  • Current Trump administration seeks trade detente, potentially limiting more assertive military signaling.
  • Rare earth minerals are a key pressure point—China has economic leverage.

• Failure to Name China:

  • Gertz recounts a senior Pentagon official’s speech in the Philippines that discussed “countering hegemony” but didn’t name China.
    • Bill Gertz [11:44]: “...to ignore [China] in the bid to try and develop better relations... reeks of appeasement or defeatism.”

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bill Gertz on U.S. Stockpiles [02:13]:
  “I think it’s clear that we do have a shortage of missiles and especially missile defense interceptors, and that it’s very difficult to speed up the development of more of those. That’s really the issue.”

• Bill Gertz on China’s threat [07:09]:
  “To me the most serious strategic threat facing the United States [is] Communist China... They’ve stolen technology, built up their economy, now using their newfound economic power to expand...”

• Bill Gertz on U.S. strategy [09:29]:
  "...[The Pentagon has] taken a new policy, they call it a quiet diplomacy-oriented denial defense where they’re not going to challenge China’s aggressive activities. It’s a really foolish policy in my view..."

• Joe on U.S. vigilance [12:45]:
  “China's relentless. It is bent on a...100-year marathon. Can't turn their backs, not even for a second. No matter who has what chips or what we need from the Chinese. Oh, they're nasty. In short, well summarized, Sir.”

---

Key Timestamps

• [01:14] — Introduces Bill Gertz and frames munitions/stockpile issue
• [02:13] — Gertz on transparency, reporting, and real shortages
• [04:41] — Analysis of current risk: not crisis but dangerous
• [07:09] — China as the #1 strategic threat; expansion in the South China Sea
• [09:29] — Critique of U.S. “quiet” military/diplomatic response
• [10:25] — U.S. patrols; detente and softening tone towards China
• [11:44] — Pentagon officials avoid even naming China in speeches
• [12:45] — Closing reflections on China’s global ambition

---

Summary of Tone and Message

This episode is direct, serious, and urgent. Both host and guest emphasize the real-world risks of complacency in face of China’s expanding influence and the slow pace of U.S. military adaptation. The conversation is heavy on strategic analysis but occasionally leavened with sharp, memorable phrasings (e.g., Churchill’s "Nothing changes till you're invaded," and the pointed warnings about "appeasement").

Listeners are left with a clear warning: the U.S. cannot afford to ignore or downplay the Chinese threat—militarily, technologically, or diplomatically.

Transcript

[Bill Gertz]

This is an iHeart podcast.

[Podcast Host]

Guaranteed Human this episode is brought to you by ChatGPT work. You know that feeling when feedback, notes and data are coming in from every direction? ChatGPT work can make sense of it all, turning scattered context across the apps you use every day into docs, sheets, slides, and more. With your permission, ChatGPT work can gather context from apps and files, summarize incoming messages, rebuild decks, and help finalize high quality documents for your team or clients. Stay in control as you move from a goal to polished. Work faster with ChatGPT work. Download the ChatGPT desktop app today and take on your most ambitious work.

[OnDeck Advertiser]

Cash flow crunch OnDeck's small business line of credit gives your business immediate access to funds up to $200,000 right when you need it. Cover seasonal dips, manage payroll, restock inventory, or tackle unexpected expenses without missing a beat. With flexible draws, transparent pricing and control over repayment, get funded quickly and confident. Apply [e-mail] funds could be available as soon as tomorrow, depending on certain loan attributes. Your business loan may be issued by On Deck or Celtic Bank. On Deck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans and amounts subject to lender approval.

[Joe]

It's probably the number one defense Related story people are chanting about these days. The question of US Military weapons stockpiles of various sorts of missiles and munitions. How low are they? Thanks to the granting of some supplies to Ukraine in the conflict with Iran. How how do we stand in terms of preparedness to get into a major conflict with, obviously, China? To discuss these topics and more, please welcome Bill Gertz, columnist and reporter currently with the Washington Times, and author of eight books, several of them having to do with the threats from China. Bill, how are you?

[Tony Ayo]

Hi.

[Bill Gertz]

Very good. Thanks. Hope having a great summer.

[Joe]

So far so good. Yeah, can't complain. So let's talk about the US Weapons stockpiles. I'm sure you've been following the story, but does it bother you at all the amount of leaking there's been about our weapons stockpiles?

[Bill Gertz]

No, I think it's pretty clear. In fact, in my recent column, I reported that the current Defense policy bill in the House of Representatives contains a section that calls on the Pentagon to report the effects of unplanned global taskings, in other words, the use of weapons and how that could affect our ability to deter China. So the information is out there. I know that the Secretary of Defense, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and the President have said we have plenty of munitions, but I think it's clear that we do have a shortage of missiles and especially missile defense interceptors, and that it's very difficult to speed up the development of more of those. That's. That's really the issue. How quickly can we replace the stocks that we've used recently in the Iran conflict?

[Joe]

So you would argue that the folks leaking that information are actually intent on upping the pressure so that we as a country wake up and start producing this stuff more aggressively.

[Bill Gertz]

Well, you know, most of the mainstream media is virulently anti Trump, so they just want to report anything that's going to make the Trump administration look bad. But I think it's a real issue aside from that fact. And I think the Heritage foundation, which is really strong MAGA outlet, just produced a report recently which raised this issue of the shortage of missiles and missile defense interceptors. So, yeah, there's that part of it, but it's also a real issue that has to be addressed. I'm pretty sure. Also the deputy Secretary of war recently sent a memo to defense contractors and gave them like, 21 days to come up with a plan to develop how to produce more missiles, precision guided missiles and more missile defense interceptors. So, yeah, the issue is out there. It's, you know, it's tinged with the anti Trump hysteria which dominates most of the mainstream media.

[Joe]

How serious a situation are we in, do you think?

[Bill Gertz]

We're.

[Joe]

We're dangerously low in our stockpiles of munitions. Are we, you know, in the yellow zone, or are we in an emergency?

[Bill Gertz]

I don't think it's an emergency. I don't think it's a crisis. I think it's something that the commander of the Pacific Command, Admiral Poparo, who has testified in the past that he was concerned about the use of missiles and interceptors in the Middle east and how that could impact his ability to deter China. If the Chinese feel like we don't have enough missiles to go to war with them over Taiwan, they could miscalculate and make a move towards Taiwan. And, you know, so that's kind of, that's one of the aspects of it. I think it's important that we definitely, as far as finished finishing off the Iranians. That seems to have been the key issue that one of the military commanders, either the chairman of the Joint Chiefs or the commander of Central Command, said, look, we can't go back to major combat operations because we've used so many of our munitions. I think the problem, one of the problems is drones will use a lot of missile interceptors, which are very expensive. And take a long time to replace, to go after some of the many drones that have been fired by the Iranians.

[Joe]

Right. And of course, the asymmetry of cost that so many have talked about. You're knocking a $10,000 weapon down with a 5 million dollar weapon. You know, one of my favorite quotes from Winston Churchill, Bill, was, and he's, he's had so many great eloquent quotes, but one of my favorites is nothing changes till you're invaded. And to whatever extent we are looking ahead and planning and not being reactive, well, I guess this is reactive in a sense. But anyway, to whatever extent we are forging ahead with what the future looks like is to our credit. But I want to pivot real quickly to a different China topic that you alluded to. And my partner who's on vacation often jokes that America can only pay attention to one story at a time. And I think a lot of us are focused on. If it's a foreign relations story, it's Iran. But China is, as always, active in their quadrant of the globe. Their, their strategies are changing a little bit lately. What is China up to in the South China Sea, for instance? What's the most interesting, compelling end or worrisome to you, Bill?

[Bill Gertz]

Yeah, this is to me the most serious strategic threat facing the United States, Communist China. And I think the Middle east is a distraction for that. It's definitely a taking away from our, our municip in stockpiles. But the Chinese are on the march ideologically and militarily. They're looking at expansion, expanding their power. They've, for the past four or five decades, they've stolen technology, built up their economy to the point where they're now using their newfound economic power to expand what they call Marxism Leninism with Chinese characteristics. In the South China Sea, they've been bullying a number of key allies, including the Philippines, where there's been a couple of really serious standoffs. There haven't been any missiles or guns fired, but they've used water cannon, they've used lasers at some point to damage the eyes of Philippine military vessels. So there's a big dispute there. China is seeking to control the South China Sea, which sees something like 5 trillion annually in trade. It's a major waterway, and China has declared something called the nine dash line, which covers like 90% of the South China Sea. In 2016, a international tribunal in the Hague ruled that that was illegal. It was not had. There's no basis in history. It's completely illegal. And they sided with the Philippines, which said hey, look, we have economic zones here and the Chinese are encroaching on them, but it's definitely a hotspot. Taiwan is also a very hotspot, and also Japan. The Chinese have increased extremely belligerent propaganda against Japan over its government saying that it would support Taiwan if China invaded. And they're also rethinking whether or not to build nuclear weapons against growing nuclear threats from both China and North Korea. So that's kind of the situation there. And the Pentagon has taken a new policy, they call it a quiet diplomacy oriented denial defense where they're not going to challenge China's aggressive activities. It's a really foolish policy in my view because we're in an information age and they're waging information warfare against us. What the, what the Chinese military calls cognitive warfare. And if we take a quiet approach to that, we're going to be in a world of hurt because they're going to use that for strategic means to achieve their goals, whether it's taking over islands in the South China Sea or ultimately taking over Taiwan or again pressuring a key ally in Japan.

[Joe]

Well, I think the US Navy is patrolling the South China Sea. Have they stepped up patrols? Because I know our point, our goal is to reestablish the, you know, the free navigation of international waters. What's happening there?

[Bill Gertz]

Well, we had a aircraft carrier strike group that visited Vietnam and patrolled in the South China Sea, which was very good. We didn't hear much in the way of Chinese propaganda against that, but that's a good sign. Also, some other nations have also stepped up and conducted patrols, but we haven't directly intervened in some of these water cannon issues, that the Chinese coast guard has fired water cannon at some of the Philippine vessels. We've declared that because we have a defense treaty with Philippines that any attack by China against the Philippines would be bring us in basically into it. But the US has kind of taken a very cautious role to its patrols in the South China Sea. And the same with the, the Taiwan Strait. We used to do almost monthly transits. But right now the Trump administration is seeking a detente with China primarily because China has squeezed the US on the issue of rare earth minerals of the world on. And basically they're trying to come to some trade deals with China. And that's kind of led to this detente where they're playing down. Just today, in fact, a senior Pentagon official in the Philippines gave a speech. This is Elbridge Colby, where he had, in a 4,000 word speech, he talked about countering hegemony in the region, but he didn't even mention the word China. And to the regional states, this is really something that when you think about all of the nefarious activities, the cyber attacks, China's role in spreading the COVID pandemic and not taking credit for that, there's so many issues and they're human rights abuses. But to ignore that in the bid to try and develop better relations with China, to me, reeks of appeasement or defeatism.

[Joe]

Bill Gertz of the Washington Times is also the author of a number of bestselling books, including his latest, Deceiving the Inside Communist China's Drive for Global Supremacy. Bill, great to talk to you. Appreciate the insights and let's do it again.

[Bill Gertz]

Thank you, Joe.

[Joe]

You got it, Bill. Good to talk to you. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. China's relentless. It is bent on a. Well, as Pillsbury put it, the great William Pillsbury book. I think it's William 100 year marathon. Can't turn their backs, not even for a second. No matter who has what chips or what we need from the Chinese. Oh, they're nasty. In short, well summarized, Sir Armstrong and Gettysburg.

[OnDeck Advertiser]

Ondeck is built to back small businesses like yours. Whether you're buying equipment, expanding your team, or bridging cash flow gaps, Ondeck's loans up to $400,000 make it happen fast. Rated A by the Better Business Bureau and earning thousands of five star trust pilot reviews, Ondeck delivers funding you can count on. Apply in [e-mail] depending on certain loan attributes. Your business loan may be issued by Ondeck or Celtic Bank. Ondeck does not lend in North Dakota. All loans in amounts subject to lender approval.

[Tony Ayo]

This is Tony Ayo from the Real Report with Tony Ayo and Uncle Murder. You ever notice how everything keep going up? Rent, streaming, even extra Sosa at your favorite burrito spot. But with Boost Mobile, you don't have to play the Willis Go up Soon game. Boost Mobile offers an unlimited talk, text and data plan at a price that'll never go up. It's the same price you'll pay for Life. Switch now for unlimited wireless at a price that'll never go up. Only at boost mobile. After 30 gigabytes, customers may experience slower speeds. Customers will pay $25 a month as long as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited plan.