What We Oughta Be Worrying About

Summary

Podcast Summary: Armstrong & Getty On Demand – "What We Oughta Be Worrying About"

Release Date: January 10, 2025

In the latest episode of "Armstrong & Getty On Demand," hosted by iHeartPodcasts, hosts Armstrong and Getty delve into pressing global concerns with esteemed political risk analyst Ian Bremmer, President and Founder of Eurasia Group. The episode, titled "What We Oughta Be Worrying About," offers an in-depth exploration of geopolitical risks shaping our world in 2025 and beyond.

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1. Introduction to Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group

[03:44] Armstrong: Welcomes Ian Bremmer, highlighting his expertise and the significance of his annual global risks list produced by Eurasia Group.
Notable Quote:
"Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, also its founder, political risk research and consulting firm, and every year they put up... it's just always such a great and interesting read." – Armstrong

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2. The G0 World: A New Geopolitical Paradigm

Risk Highlighted: G0 World – A global landscape characterized by the absence of a central authority, leading to increased volatility and instability.

Key Points Discussed:

• Definition and Causes:
  Ian Bremmer explains the concept of the G0 world as a "law of the jungle" scenario where traditional global leadership, primarily from the United States, is declining.
  "A Gzero world is a very volatile, it's a very unstable world, and it's one that comes from the Americans and some allies no longer willing to play the role they had been told to in the world over decades." – Ian Bremmer [06:02]

• Implications for Global Order:
  The retreat of the U.S. from its role as the global policeman has led to fragmentation, with both adversaries and allies experiencing internal weaknesses.
  "By the way, the jungle is a great place for an apex predator, but it's not so great if you're weak and don't have a strong government." – Ian Bremmer [06:02]

• Impact on Major Powers:
  Bremmer discusses the weakening of traditional allies like South Korea, Germany, France, and Canada, making them susceptible to unilateral actions by stronger nations like the U.S.
  "Both America's adversaries and its allies are a lot weaker right now, economically, technologically, militarily..." – Ian Bremmer [06:02]

• Historical Comparisons:
  Drawing parallels to the 1930s, Bremmer emphasizes the similarities in appeasement strategies and the potential for conflict escalation.
  "We say that this is the most dangerous period since the 30s, but you know, there was a lot of appeasement going on in the 30s." – Ian Bremmer [08:08]

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3. U.S.-China Relations Under the Trump Administration

Discussion Focus: The deterioration of U.S.-China relations and the potential for an intensified trade war and economic decoupling.

Key Points Discussed:

• Trade Policies and Tariffs:
  Bremmer predicts an escalation in tariffs and export controls, particularly targeting the semiconductor industry, under the Trump administration's hawkish stance.
  "We're gonna see more tariffs from the United States against China. We're gonna see more export controls on semiconductors." – Ian Bremmer [11:48]

• Strategic Appointments and Policies:
  The appointment of loyalists like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, who are perceived as hawkish towards China, limits the moderating influence within the administration.
  "People are not gonna be able to get around him to try to moderate his impulses." – Ian Bremmer [11:51]

• Economic Decoupling:
  Multinational companies, including Apple, are increasingly shifting manufacturing out of China to other countries like India and Vietnam, accelerating economic separation.
  "We already see Apple putting a lot more money into India, into Vietnam, into Indonesia." – Ian Bremmer [14:03]

• Long-Term Outlook for China:
  Bremmer discusses China's internal challenges, including economic underperformance, demographic issues, and reduced consumer confidence, which exacerbate tensions with the U.S.
  "Their demographics, they're at what, 1.4 billion people right now... when you talk to Western multinationals about China, they're saying, we're reducing our exposure." – Ian Bremmer [15:23]

Notable Quote:
"It's an active trade war between the U.S. and China, and we'll see more of an active decoupling between the two economies than we've presently had." – Ian Bremmer [12:00]

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4. Iran's Geopolitical Position

Risk Highlighted: Iran on the Ropes – Assessing Iran's diminished deterrent capabilities and the implications for Middle Eastern stability.

Key Points Discussed:

• Military and Economic Pressures:
  Bremmer highlights Iran's weakened state due to sustained military strikes from Israel and increased economic sanctions, reducing its ability to project power.
  "They recognize that they've lost their deterrent capability and they just don't have an effective way to hit the United States or Israel." – Ian Bremmer [19:17]

• Potential for Internal Regime Change:
  The lack of external threats has made the Iranian regime more cautious, potentially paving the way for internal dissent and eventual regime change.
  "It's also plausible that we would see internal regime change." – Ian Bremmer [21:24]

• U.S. Support for Israel:
  Discussion on whether the Trump administration would support Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with Bremmer expressing skepticism about immediate military intervention but acknowledging increased economic pressure.
  "Would he support Netanyahu directly in strikes against the nuclear facilities? I think in the early days, the answer is no." – Ian Bremmer [20:29]

Notable Quote:
"They've lost their empire in the Middle East. They lost the axis of resistance, and now there's growing insurgency inside Iranian provinces too." – Ian Bremmer [22:40]

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5. Technological Advancements and AI

Risk Highlighted: Rapid AI development surpassing expectations, raising both opportunities and ethical concerns.

Key Points Discussed:

• Surging AI Capabilities:
  Bremmer notes that AI has advanced faster than anticipated, with numerous industrial applications emerging across various sectors.
  "We've been pretty bullish on AI and yet we continue to be pretty staggered by just how many use cases there are for industrial innovation." – Ian Bremmer [28:07]

• Turing Test and Human-AI Interaction:
  The lines between human and AI interactions are blurring, as evidenced by AI's ability to pass the Turing Test, making it challenging to distinguish between bots and humans.
  "The only way you can really tell is because they're faster and smarter on a lot of aspects." – Ian Bremmer [28:07]

• Social Implications:
  The ubiquity of AI is transforming personal relationships and societal norms, with even traditionally resistant communities adopting AI companions.
  "Getting comfort from talking to some chick on who they are." – Getty [29:09]

Notable Quote:
"The Turing test has basically been shattered and that human beings engaging with bots can no longer tell if it's a bot or a human being." – Ian Bremmer [28:07]

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6. Africa's Development Challenges

Risk Highlighted: Africa slipping behind in economic and infrastructural development amidst climate change and limited investment.

Key Points Discussed:

• Economic and Climate Struggles:
  Bremmer emphasizes Africa's vulnerabilities, including severe impacts from climate change and insufficient investment in infrastructure to support growth.
  "They're getting hit harder by climate change than anybody else. They were hit just harder last year by El Niño than anybody else." – Ian Bremmer [29:38]

• Opportunities Through AI:
  While challenges are significant, AI presents opportunities for Africa to leapfrog traditional infrastructure barriers by accessing global knowledge and technologies.
  "The upside of AI is that you can actually get access to world-class knowledge, medicine, education... without having to build a lot of expensive infrastructure." – Ian Bremmer [29:38]

Notable Quote:
"Generally speaking, Africa's not hitting where we want it to go." – Ian Bremmer [30:35]

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7. Stability in Mexico

Risk Highlighted: Debunking the notion of Mexico as a highly unstable narco-state and highlighting its robust democratic framework.

Key Points Discussed:

• Political Stability:
  Contrary to popular belief, Bremmer asserts that Mexico maintains one of the most popular and stable governments among democracies, with effective leadership and integration into the global economy.
  "It is not highly unstable. In fact, it has one of the most popular governments of any democracy in the world." – Ian Bremmer [30:48]

• Challenges Ahead:
  Despite stability, Mexico faces significant challenges, including combating fentanyl trafficking, enhancing border security, and managing its role in facilitating trade between China and the United States.
  "They’re going to have to step up their game on fentanyl... and allow China to pass through a whole bunch of goods from China through Mexico into the United States." – Ian Bremmer [31:17]

Notable Quote:
"This is going to be a tough year for Mexico." – Ian Bremmer [31:43]

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8. Concluding Thoughts and Final Insights

The episode wraps up with reflections on the interconnectedness of global risks and the need for strategic foresight in navigating an increasingly complex world. Despite numerous challenges, Bremmer remains cautiously optimistic about potential opportunities arising from technological advancements and geopolitical shifts.

Final Notable Quote:
"How screwed up and horrible is Africa?... decline... but there are some silver linings here." – Ian Bremmer [29:38]

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Key Takeaways:

• Shift to a G0 World: The decline of unipolar leadership, particularly from the U.S., is leading to a more fragmented and volatile global order.

• Intensified U.S.-China Tensions: Under the Trump administration, expect a harsher stance on China, leading to economic decoupling and increased trade wars.

• Iran's Diminishing Influence: Economic and military pressures are rendering Iran less capable of regional aggression, with potential for internal regime changes.

• Rapid AI Development: Artificial Intelligence is advancing beyond expectations, offering both transformative opportunities and ethical dilemmas.

• Africa's Development Hurdles: While facing severe climate and economic challenges, Africa stands to benefit from AI-driven innovations if leveraged effectively.

• Mexico's Stability: Contrary to stereotypes, Mexico exhibits strong democratic governance but must address significant security and trade-related challenges.

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted risks that the world faces today, emphasizing the importance of understanding and preparing for these challenges to foster global stability and progress.

Transcript

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[Ian]

A little more connected, but a little further apart.

[Dave]

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[Ian]

Us to be more human.

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[Ian]

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[Armstrong]

The fabulous Ian Bremmer. And what we all ought to be worrying about. It's Armstrong and Getty Extra Large. Because four hours simply isn't enough. This is Armstrong and Getty Extra Large.

[Ian]

So, Ian, we're making this part of our podcast. The highlights will air on the radio show are. The reason we've had to put you on the podcast is because of your merchant marine foul mouth. I don't know if you remember this from years ago. Play the clip.

[Ian Bremmer]

Michael, are you me?

[Ian]

Yes. You dropped an S bomb on our radio show, nearly causing us to lose our jobs. You have no self control.

[Ian Bremmer]

Oh my God.

[Ian]

So now we're on. Now we're on the podcast.

[Ian Bremmer]

Wow. Does that mean I can say whatever I want?

[Ian]

You can say yes. You're in good shape now.

[Ian Bremmer]

That's good to know that.

[Armstrong]

I think you're better than that. But feel free also. And before we get started in earnest, I don't know if you remember this, Ian, but we have a bit of unfinished business. I remember one half of this bet. I bet you my thumbs that Joseph R. Biden would not be the candidate in November. I can't remember if you put anything up, but I'm glad I get to keep my thumbs.

[Ian Bremmer]

I'm glad you get to keep your thumbs. It was such an embarrassment and so clear that he should have stepped down so much earlier than he had. And you know, the idea that. That he somehow voluntarily, sort of for the grace of the country, abdicated, of course, is crazy. He was basically utterly forced and still was dragging his feet at the very last day. It was not a great moment for the country.

[Ian]

Well, I don't know about you, but as a fan of history, I can't wait to read the books that are gonna be written about a lot of that decision making and behind the scenes and people who knew and what they knew and what they saw and didn't say. And it's gonna be unbelievable over the next 25 years to read it.

[Armstrong]

Sure. Yeah.

[Ian Bremmer]

Just how George Clooney apparently had the inside information room.

[Ian]

Yeah, no kidding.

[Armstrong]

And was in charge. So. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, also its founder, political risk research and consulting firm, and every year they put up, put out the list of global risks which agree, disagree, or both. Is just always such a great and interesting read, and we look forward to chatting with you about it. Ian, your first risk is funny because we get your newsletter, the Gzero email, every day or whenever you put it up. It hadn't occurred to me to ask, what does G0 mean? Well, your risk number one is the G0 wins. What are we talking about?

[Ian Bremmer]

We're talking about the law of the jungle, right? We're talking. Which, by the way, the jungle is a great place for an apex predator, but it's not so great if you're weak and not and don't have a strong government. And that's what we're seeing play out. We're seeing the United States embrace unilateralism, reject global rule of law, reject the idea of being the world's policeman or the architect of free trade or the promoter of democracy, and instead say, we're going to do things the way we want to. You guys are weaker and you better get along with that. And both America's adversaries and its allies are a lot weaker right now, economically, technologically, militarily, and also in terms of their governments just in trouble. Right. Look at South Korea and Germany and France and Canada these days. I mean, this is a really interesting time to be someone like Donald Trump coming into power and saying, I'm gonna use that power and I'm gonna use it in ways that's gonna force you to acquiesce. So a Gzero world is a very volatile, it's a very unstable world, and it's one that comes from the Americans and some allies no longer willing to play the role they had been told to in the world over decades. It's come from Russia not being integrated with the west, being angry at the US about that and allying with Chaos actors like North Korea, and it's come from China, that was integrated into the global economy, but on the presumption that as that happened they would become more west, like, you know, more political open reforms, rule of law, free market. None of that happened. And now the US is angry about it. So you put those things together and you get this geopolitical disorder, which is pretty unique. And it's pretty unique for a country that created a global order to start taking its own order apart. And that's what we're living through in 2020.

[Ian]

Nice job not cursing during that answer, by the way. Good self control. So even, like, even if Kamala Harris had won, even before we go into the future, where do you rank the lack of world order compared to recent history? I remember I heard hearing Henry Kissinger talk about it back when he was alive. He thought we were at a pretty bad point. We are slash were, aren't we?

[Ian Bremmer]

I think that again, bad point depends on whose perspective you're taking. I think the United States is gonna get a lot of wins in this environment. We say that this is the most dangerous period since the 30s, but you know, there was a lot of appeasement going on in the 30s. There's a lot of appeasement that's gonna happen in 2025. I mean, Mark Zuckerberg looked like he was appeasing yesterday, right? And if you think that he's in a weak position, you haven't been talking to the Canadians or the Danes in the last 48 hours. I think the United States is actually gonna get a lot of wins in the early days, but it's going to be unnerving for people that feel like they're being targeted. It's unnerving for countries that feel like they're on the wrong side of this. And that's gonna lead to a lot of fragmentation and a lot of hedging around the world. But the funny thing is, when we talked about this last year, you and I, you know, we were worried about these big wars that were going on in the Middle east, in Ukraine, and even the growing fighting happening inside the United States. And the interesting thing about 2025 is that all of those wars are receding, right? It's a good chance that the Middle east wars are going to be fought less strongly than they were, in part because the Israelis don't have much more to hit when it comes to Hamas. Secondly, in the middle, in Russia, Ukraine, there's a good likelihood we're gonna get a ceasefire over the course of the year. And in the US despite all of the fighting over the elections, fact is that nobody thinks that Trump stole it. It was free, it was fair, it wasn't rigged. And whether you like Trump or not, you recognize, yeah, he won the presidency, he's got a mandate. So those things that were bothering us so much in 2024 and played out over 2024 in ways that were very damaging for 2025 have actually started to. Started to hit the rearview mirror.

[Armstrong]

So not only am I one of the great prognosticators of our time, or any other Ian, I'm also willing to offer my services to go abroad and explain Trump's negotiating style, because I see on your list of risks, several of them are related to Trump's governing style, whether the checks and balances of the American system will hold, whether alliances will hold. And, you know, I look back to his first term and he has said some outrageous things about NATO that bothered me. I don't particularly appreciate his negotiating style, but the threats to, like, disband NATO or let anybody attack him or whatever, I found wildly inappropriate. But the net result was a stronger, more responsible NATO in terms of self funding.

[Ian Bremmer]

Absolutely. And when he said that Mexico was going to build a wall and pay for it, they paid for absolutely nothing on the border. But they did strengthen their own border security in the south, which led to far fewer illegal immigrants going through Mexico into the United States under the Trump administration. Couldn't agree with you more.

[Ian]

That is super interesting.

[Armstrong]

And I would also cite China, where Trump was maybe, you know, more blunt and hard ass than he needed to be, but that that relationship really needed to be turned around. How do you see that progressing this year?

[Ian Bremmer]

The.

[Armstrong]

The US China breakdown, as you put it?

[Ian Bremmer]

Let me say first, broadly that Trump is, because he's in a much stronger position internationally, because power is relational this time around, and also because he's in a much stronger position domestically. He's got the House, he's got the Senate, but he also has the entire GOP that recognizes they need him. And all of his appointees are loyalists that you don't see any Nikki Haley's or Mike Pompeos or Mad Dog Mattis in this bunch. People are not gonna be able to get around him to try to moderate his impulses. So that's going to lead to Trump being able to do more of what he wants to do. And what he wants to do is not make Canada the 51st state, but he does want to change the nature of US Trade deficits with countries all over the world. He wants to use tariffs to accomplish that. He also wants to get rid of a lot of illegal immigrants in the U.S. deport them. And I think he's gonna do that too with China. That means that in the early weeks of this relationship, we are gonna see more tariffs from the United States against China. We're gonna see more export controls on semiconductors. And if you look at the people that Trump has appointed, like Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, who I think are quite capable and I've known for a while, they're very hawkish on China. They are people that are not trusted by the Chinese to engage the way that, say, Jake Sullivan and some of his team have been. So I think that the relationship between the US And China, which has been comparatively well managed in the last year and in a way that did not give away the store to the Chinese. So, I mean, Democrats and Republicans largely think that Biden's done a pretty good job on China. It's one of the few things they agree on when it comes to Biden's foreign policy. I suspect that's not gonna hold. It's gonna break down. And so we will start slipping into an active trade war between the U.S. china, and we'll see more of an active decoupling between the two economies than we've presently had. Wow.

[Ian]

Do you think at some point, like, Apple can't make phones there anymore and that sort of thing?

[Ian Bremmer]

I think that's already happening. We already see Apple putting a lot more money into India, into Vietnam, into Indonesia. Now, some of that is not political. Some of that is because the Chinese economy is really underperforming. Xi Jinping has made it tougher for the private sector. He's supported state owned enterprises. And consumer sentiment in China has fallen off a cliff. So people aren't buying as much. They're keeping money in savings because they don't really trust the Chinese government to be able to perform the way they had. Some of that was the pandemic and zero Covid, too, which they handled really badly, in my view. And so when you talk to Western multinationals about China, they're saying, we're reducing our exposure, we're firing people, we're ending strategic partnerships. Then you add on top of that Trump saying, I'm gonna come in and put a 60% tariff across the board. And even if you expect that as exaggerated, and I do, it is hitting China at a time that frankly, no one's super excited about spending more money. There's.

[Ian]

Hmm.

[Armstrong]

You know, anybody who predicts the Imminent downfall of the Chinese Communist Party is a fool. But they do have unbelievable headwinds, including demographics. How bearish are you on China and Xi Jinping in the medium to long term?

[Ian Bremmer]

Well, I mean, in a sense, the fact that Xi Jinping reached out to India, had a two hour plus summit and pulled back Chinese troops from their contested border shows that China knows they've got big headwinds. They don't want a big crisis with India. They reached out to Japan and asked for a summit. Usually it's the other way around. And they offered to start buying Japanese seafood, which just a few months ago they said you can't sell here because it's all radioactive because of Fukushima. I've seen them do a lot of this around the world. Now, some of this is because they're worried about Trump and the uncertainty coming from the US that they don't think they can manage. But some of it is a recognition that they're in a bad position. And so frankly, it behooves them to stabilize these relations. So. And that comes from a deep concern that you just asked about. Do I think they're about to fall? No, but I mean their demographics, they're at what, 1.4 billion people right now. And expectations for 2100, when you and I are gonna be pretty geezerly, is that they're gonna be down to 500 million, to 750 million. So I mean, a significant, I mean the biggest contraction of a population that you would ever see in an economy outside of like war or famine. It's peacetime in China and they're just saying we just don't want to have any kids. And there's nothing the Chinese government can do about it. This is not a five year or ten year problem. Their retirement age for men is 55. They can extend that for five or ten years. They're not very urbanized. They can move more people into cities, they can make agriculture more efficient, they can lean into AI. There's a lot of things they can do that can give them a 10 year buffer, but they don't have a generational solution here. So long term, I think they're in very big trouble. Yeah.

[Ian]

I don't know if you read David Sanger's book New Cold wars, but he opened, yeah, great book. But he opened with the quote, which I think is underappreciated when it was caught on a hot mic or on purpose. I don't know when Xi was talking to Putin before he got in the car and said, basically, we're gonna change the world order. We're gonna drive and we are going to drive these big changes. Do you think he's still focused on that or things gotten so tough internally that he can't be focused on that anymore?

[Ian Bremmer]

I think that he at a very minimum recognizes that the timing for such a statement, for such policies is inopportune. I mean, when I was last in China two months ago, two and a half months ago, they were telling me that they've pushed out their projections of when China would become the largest economy, overtaking the US by five years. So they're not looking at being able to take over Taiwan by 2029 the way that many in the US included had expected was sort of coming. Now does that mean that Xi Jinping actually believes that he no longer is going to have the ultimately the world's leading economy, that his plans for global domination in artificial intelligence are going away? I wouldn't go that far. But I mean, he's not getting any younger. I mean, and at some point kicking the can down the road does become a strategic change of mind. I wouldn't dare to say how far in his personal mental processes he's traveled along that road. But I mean, he certainly started the path.

[Ian]

He's no kid either.

[Ian Bremmer]

Right? Absolutely right.

[Armstrong]

Risk number six, Iran on the ropes. They are a cornered beast. Are they a dangerous cornered beast?

[Ian Bremmer]

I think less so. What we have seen over the last year is they've been hit pretty hard, particularly by Israel, and the response has been very little. You'll, you'll remember when the, the head of Hamas's political division, their leader, was assassinated by Israel on the day of the Iranian President's inauguration in Tehran. And the Iranian response was essentially nothing. They didn't blow up Israel on the back of it. They didn't blow up Israel on the back of taking out Hezbollah, their most important proxy. They didn't blow up Israel on the back of launching a series of missiles against Iran. So I mean, I think the Iranians recognize that they've lost their deterrent capability and they just don't have an effective way to hit the United States or Israel, which has made them very cautious and very risk averse. Now the one thing of course they could do, and President Macron of France has been warning about this in the past couple days, is they could significantly ramp up their dash to a nuclear bomb.

[Ian]

Okay, I was gonna ask you about that. So is Trump Israel? From what I read the other day in some publication, Israel can't do it on their own. They'd need our help. Is Trump willing to help Israel take out their nuclear facilities, their bomb making program? Can we do it?

[Ian Bremmer]

There are certainly people around Trump that are coming into the administration that believe that is what the US should do, that this is a historic opportunity to take out America and Israel's top enemy in the Middle East. Is Trump personally willing to do that? I mean, he's very reluctant to use military force. He doesn't want to get involved in new wars. He's proud of ending wars, not starting new ones. And he also knows that a war with Iran would lead to significantly high oil prices, though they're low right now, and there's a lot of oil in reserve that's not being produced, but it would certainly impact the stock market. All things that he doesn't really like.

[Ian]

He took out solid money.

[Ian Bremmer]

Look, he did, he did take out Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Defense Forces, but he did it after months of Iranian strikes against Saudi Arabia, including their largest refinery in the world, including the uae, and including even American bases in the region. And then finally, he hit Soleimani. Assassinated him. So again, I think it is possible, I think at a minimum, Trump is gonna put much more pressure against Iran, including shutting down a lot of these illegal, non flagged tankers that are helping Iran get oil out illegally, which the Chinese will not be happy with because they're the ones buying most of it. I think he'll do that. So he's gonna put Iran under a lot more economic pressure. Would he support Netanyahu directly in strikes against the nuclear facilities? I think in the early days, the answer is no. But I suspect if Iran started to go towards a bomb, he probably would.

[Ian]

That's gonna be an interesting one to follow because I don't know what's gonna happen there. I've listened to a bunch of different policy podcasts where people talk about Iran's never gonna be in a weaker state than they are right now. If not now, when?

[Ian Bremmer]

So that's right.

[Ian]

That's a good one.

[Ian Bremmer]

Could happen. It could easily happen. I think at the very least, US pressure, economically, much more meaningful. And the Israelis continuing to hit them with cyber espionage, hit the critical infrastructure assassinations, all of that is putting more pressure on the Iranian regime. And they've lost their empire in the Middle East. They lost the axis of resistance, and now there's growing insurgency inside Iranian provinces too. So, I mean, it's also plausible that we would see internal regime change. I mean, you know, these things happen very slowly and then very quickly. No one expected Assad was going to suddenly fall after 50 years of dictatorship. And yet two weeks after the revolution started with some rebels, suddenly he was fleeing the Moscow where he awaited getting poisoned.

[Bobby]

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[Dave]

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[Ian Bremmer]

I know, right? I was worried we'd bring back the same team oh no.

[Dave]

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[Ian Bremmer]

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[Dave]

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[LifeLock]

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[Ian Bremmer]

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[Dave]

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[LifeLock]

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[Ian Bremmer]

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[Dave]

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[Ian Bremmer]

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[Armstrong]

Oh.

[Ian Bremmer]

Blinds.com is the goat.

[Morton]

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[Colgate]

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[Dave]

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[Ian Bremmer]

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[Ian]

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[Ian]

Bleach Uses directed hey, was it last year or the year before? You made some big AI predictions. Is AI further along than you thought it would be or did you think it would be further along?

[Ian Bremmer]

I think it's further along. We've been pretty bullish on AI and yet we continue to be pretty staggered by just how many use cases there are for industrial innovation in every sector, every company around the world. We're pretty staggered by, you know, the fact that, you know, the Turing test has basically been shattered and that human beings engaging with bots can no longer tell if it's a bot or a human being. In fact, the only way you can really tell is because they're faster and smarter on a lot of. On a lot of aspects.

[Ian]

Oh my God. Ian. I heard a story. I was talking to somebody yesterday was in a meeting with a bunch of farmers who or single and they've gotten into chatgpt girlfriends and they. And I mean this is like, this is the last crowd in the world you'd think would embrace this sort of thing, but kind of like really like the companionship of. So getting to your whole Turing test. Can you tell if it's a human being or not? I mean, they, they are like getting comfort from talking to some chick on who they are. So. Yeah, yeah, that's where we're headed.

[Ian Bremmer]

Yeah. I mean, I do think I'm, I've never been a big one for pronouns, but I'd go gender neutral when it comes to AI.

[Ian]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Armstrong]

Well, as the guy who predicted Biden dropping out, Ian, I will be the undoing of mankind. It is the fruit of the tree of knowledge from the book of Genesis and will be our end. A bit of a lightning round here. How, how screwed up and horrible is Africa?

[Ian Bremmer]

They're, they're slipping farther behind in terms of, you know, the, the, how their economy is going. I think the upside of AI is that you can actually get access to world class knowledge, medicine, education and the rest without having to build a lot of expensive infrastructure which will create opportunities for Africans that they otherwise don't have. That's a really good thing. But they're getting hit harder by climate change than anybody else. They were hit just harder last year by El Nino than anybody else. I mean, there isn't the money to do a lot of the, you know, the big state building and nation building. Even China's Belt and Road is, you know, a fraction of what it used to be, given China's economic challenges. So I'd like to say that there are some silver linings here, but generally speaking, Africa's not hitting where we want it to go.

[Armstrong]

Horrifying, bloodletting, violence, instability, starvation.

[Ian]

There.

[Armstrong]

We know you're up against time. You have to drop out. So another very quick question, to what extent is this true? America's neighbor to the south, Mexico, is a highly unstable narco state.

[Ian Bremmer]

False. It is not highly unstable. In fact, it has one of the most popular governments of any democracy in the world that won on the back of a leader from the same party. So easy transition. And they have a pretty capable cabinet. They also are incredibly well integrated in terms of investment and supply chain with the largest, most robust economy in the world, which is a great place for them to be. But they are going to have to step up their game on fentanyl. They're going to have to step up their game on border security, and they're going to step up the game on allowing China to pass through a whole bunch of goods from China through Mexico into the United States. And that's going to be very hard for them. So this is going to be a tough year. They'll get there. They'll get there with the Americans, they'll stabilize the relationship. They'll do what they need to do because they have no choice. But I think this is gonna be tough year for Mexico.

[Ian]

Well, bueno on that answer. Trump was gonna send Pershing down to fight Pancho Villa, and now he doesn't have to, right?

[Armstrong]

Excellent. Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group Global Risks. It's such a great read, we suggest you download it. Ian, it's always a pleasure. Thanks a million gentlemen.

[Ian Bremmer]

Good to talk to you.

[Ian]

Yeah, nice job of not cursing. Also great self control.

[Ian Bremmer]

If I. You guys always were like the biggest joke tellers when I was talking to you and felt like you are like just having a party and so I apparently left myself loose.

[Ian]

You slipped into regular talk. But hey, thanks for the time. We appreciate it.

[Ian Bremmer]

How long have I been. How long have I been suspended for?

[Ian]

Well, obviously you're back, so I don't give a shit.

[Ian Bremmer]

That's good. I love it. Okay, good to talk to you guys. See ya.

[Michael]

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