Who Draws the Lines? Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G

Summary

Podcast Summary: Armstrong & Getty On Demand

Episode: "Who Draws the Lines? Lanhee Chen Talks to A&G"
Date: September 17, 2025
Host: Armstrong & Getty (Jack Armstrong)
Guest: Lanhee Chen, David and Diane Steffi Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Director of Domestic Policy Studies at Stanford University

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Overview

In this episode, Armstrong & Getty welcome political scholar Lanhee Chen for a deep dive into the current climate of American politics. The conversation focuses on the divisiveness in the wake of recent political violence, the ongoing national and state-level redistricting battles—particularly California’s prospective ballot measure—and Gavin Newsom’s ambitions on the national stage. Chen also shares his outlook on the economy and weighs in on why some popular political stories don’t interest him.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. National Mood and Political Division

• Aftermath of Political Violence: The conversation opens with reflections on the recent tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk and its chilling effect beyond politicians, touching ordinary Americans (04:08–05:06).

  • Quote:

    "What I continue to reflect is the way in which this kind of violence impacts people who aren’t even elected officials, just people who are speaking up and expressing their points of view."
    —Lanhee Chen (04:27)

• Living With New Anxieties: Both speakers note how daily life now involves subtle fears and vigilance.

  • Quote:

    "I noticed myself when I’ve been pulling into the parking lots, like, is that car always there?... just that sort of thing."
    —Jack Armstrong (04:46)

• Importance of Dialogue: Chen emphasizes how redistricting is deepening divisions by removing opportunities to interact with those holding opposing views (05:06–06:21).

  • Quote:

    "It’s good for us to have opportunities to interact with people with whom we disagree, and I think we need more of that in our society, not less."
    —Lanhee Chen (06:06)

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2. Redistricting Battles: California and Beyond

• Context: States like Texas have a history of mid-decade redistricting, and now California considers a ballot measure to permit it (06:21–07:09).

• The “Trump” Factor: Chen explains how proponents frame the California measure as a referendum on Trump, not redistricting (07:09–07:56).

  • Quote:

    "They have painted it as... do you like Donald Trump or not? And this will be the... probably the fourth or fifth election cycle in a row where they’re gonna run this playbook."
    —Lanhee Chen (07:09)

• Prognosis of Ballot Measure: Although polling suggests the measure will fail, Chen warns it could be close because of the political framing (07:04–08:31).

• Schwarzenegger’s Intervention: Former Governor Schwarzenegger (who championed California’s independent commission) speaks out against returning redistricting power to politicians, reinforcing the nonpartisan importance of the issue (08:54–10:12).

  • Quote:

    "The effort that Gavin Newsom and his allies are undertaking with this proposition... is really an effort to give the power to redistrict back to politicians and away from... the more independent process which we’ve had in California since 2008 and 2010 for congressional seats."
    —Lanhee Chen (09:05)

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3. Gavin Newsom’s National Ambitions

• National Perception vs. Local Experience: Newsom is seen by national pundits as a strong presidential contender due to his visibility and how he appeals to the Democratic primary voter base (10:12–11:15).

  • Quote:

    "Whatever you think of what Newsom’s doing, he’s out there... Politics abhors a vacuum, and Newsom has stepped into that in a very real way."
    —Lanhee Chen (10:27)

• Challenges for Newsom: The hosts and guest question how Newsom could overcome persistent issues like California’s homelessness crisis and out-migration in a national campaign (11:15–12:31).

  • Quote:

    "We have, in politics, recency bias... we forget about the French Laundry... his extremely progressive past, which I think is out of step with the vast majority of the American people."
    —Lanhee Chen (11:30)

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4. Epstein Files Disinterest

• Why Not All Scandals Stick: When asked about the persistent Epstein story, Chen (and Armstrong) both express a lack of interest, seeing it as unproductive for public discourse (12:31–13:24).
  • Quote:

    "Every time I hear about the Epstein files or Epstein, I just cringe because I know there’s nothing redeeming about this at all... It doesn’t make us better as a country to have a conversation about the Epstein files."
    —Lanhee Chen (12:38)

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5. Economic Outlook and Policy Concerns

• Federal Reserve & Inflation: Jack refers to Trump’s criticism of Fed Chairman Powell. Chen touches on the ongoing concern for economic recovery, inflation, and policy impacts on everyday Americans (13:26–14:28).

  • Quote:

    "I think there are a lot of people who are still having a tough time given the economy and they're looking at prices still being probably a little higher than they like... I’m optimistic about it. I think as we go into next year, things are going to pick up."
    —Lanhee Chen (13:45)

• Division’s Impact: Chen notes a need to monitor how Washington’s divisions might impact economic prospects in the coming year.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Redistricting and Polarization:

  "District lines in California—should be drawn by politicians or by citizens? That’s the fundamental question."
  —Lanhee Chen (10:00)

• On California’s Ballot Measure Campaigns:

  "Silly me, I thought it would be about the issue itself, but people wore masks or didn’t wear masks because it demonstrated, are you for Trump or not?"
  —Jack Armstrong (08:31)

• On National vs. Local Newsom Perceptions:

  "Like you, Jack, I think being in or near California and seeing him in action up close for the last eight years, I think we have a point of view that might be very different..."
  —Lanhee Chen (12:17)

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Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic/Event | |--------------|---------------------------------------------------------| | 04:08 | Reflections on Charlie Kirk assassination | | 05:06 | Redistricting’s impact on polarization | | 07:09 | Ballot measure being framed as a Trump referendum | | 08:54 | Schwarzenegger’s statement on redistricting integrity | | 10:12 | National perception of Gavin Newsom | | 11:15 | Newsom’s challenges: homelessness & out-migration | | 12:38 | Dismissing the Epstein files discussion | | 13:45 | Economic concerns and future outlook |

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Tone & Style

The conversation is direct, unscripted, and occasionally self-deprecating. Armstrong is candid and conversational, while Chen offers measured, policy-oriented insights but doesn’t shy away from revealing personal opinions. Both share concerns about growing societal tribalism and stress the importance of honest civic engagement over partisan theatrics.

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This summary provides an in-depth overview of the episode’s key debates and themes, attributing perspectives and direct quotes to guide listeners—or non-listeners—through the most significant moments of the discussion.

Transcript

[Lon Hee Chen]

This is an iHeart podcast.

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[Lon Hee Chen]

Getting his rates down, I guess. Who knows? You never know with too late. But he's done a lousy job. The rate should be much slower, much, much lower.

[Jack Armstrong]

That's Donald Trump referring to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is too late. Hope he lowers rates. Well, that's what's expected to happen today. And we'll have more on that coming up a little bit later. Trump headed over to England where I'm watching live on TV right now. You got people in funny outfits marching around playing bagpipes. Well, Trump and his model wife in a fancy hat sit there and watch. We'd like to welcome to the Arm Showing and Getty Show Lon Hee Chen to talk a little bit of politics. Lon. He is the David and Diane Steffi Fellow in American Public Policy Studies at the Hoover Institution, the director of Domestic Policy studies at Stanford University, and a super smart guy about politics. How are you, Lonnie?

[Lon Hee Chen]

I am doing well, thanks, Jack.

[Jack Armstrong]

How, how are you feeling in terms of optimism or pessimism for the country after the last one?

[Lon Hee Chen]

Oh, boy.

Well, I'm, look, I think there are always reasons to be optimistic about America, but we're in a really challenging political moment right now and we're in a very challenging time. I think as we look at how people are reacting and responding to politics and obviously the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk, which I know folks have talked about a lot. But what I continue to reflect is the way in which this kind of violence impacts people who aren't even elected officials, just people who are speaking up and expressing their points of view.

[Jack Armstrong]

I noticed myself when I've been pulling into the parking lots, like, is that car always there? I mean, yeah, just that sort of thing.

[Lon Hee Chen]

And, and, you know, people shouldn't have to feel and think that way in a place like America where I think we've always valued our ability to disagree civilly, but, but vociferously.

Right.

And I don't know. So I'm Jack, I'm a little concerned about where we are. But obviously, you know, there are a lot of bright spots. I mean, if you look at just, I think a lot of people have been truly compassionate in the wake of what happened. I think you've seen a lot of people who have decided that they want to be more involved in our political system and not less. And I think that's all good. But, you know, I do worry a little bit about how various things are making us more and more divided. You know, whether it's social media or, you know, the other thing I look at, I mean, not to tie a current event to all of this, but if you look at redistricting and all the battles over redistricting that are happened. What redistricting? The way that politicians want to change the system here in California and elsewhere, by the way, Texas and other places, too, is to draw lines so that we are living next to more people and voting next to more people who we agree with rather than who we.

Disagree with, as opposed to putting us in conversation and next to people with whom, you know, maybe we have some. Some political disagreements. I actually think it's good for us to have opportunities to interact with people with whom we disagree, and I think we need more of that in our society, not less.

[Jack Armstrong]

So Texas decides to redistrict in the, in the middle of the decade, and it's. Their state allows them to do that legally. It's not unheard of. It's not common. The media studiously avoided mentioning to viewers who don't already know that lots and lots of states have gerrymandered throughout our country's history, and a lot of blue states are already gerrymandered to death, including Illinois, where they all ran to anyway. So that's an old story. So now California is going to try to do it, or at least put it on the ballot for November 4th and change the rules here in California so that we could redistrict. Also, the polling shows that it's going to go down in flames. Are you standing. You think that's true?

[Lon Hee Chen]

Well, I think it's going to be close, actually. Oh, really?

[Jack Armstrong]

Okay. You know more about it than I do.

[Lon Hee Chen]

Well, because I think the challenge is that anytime what you've seen with what Newsom and his allies have done on this initiative is they have painted it as not the issues that you framed it as, which are the right issues they framed it as. Do you like Donald Trump or not? And this will be the. Gosh, let's think about this now. This probably the fourth or fifth election cycle in a row where they're gonna run this playbook, and to date, they've been pretty successful with this.

[Jack Armstrong]

Right.

[Lon Hee Chen]

And so I think that the worry for those of us who oppose this proposition and who don't believe it's the right course for California. I think the concern is that voters are not going to be choosing whether they like.

[Jack Armstrong]

Of course, of course. You're right. You are so right.

[Lon Hee Chen]

It's gonna be about, do you like Trump or not?

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Right.

[Lon Hee Chen]

And I think in California, you know, and some, some, some of your listeners might not like hearing this, but the reality is that Donald Trump is not the most popular guy in California. And so I think that the dynamic they're setting up Here with Prop 50 is a dynamic that could end up moving in their favor. Now, there's a lot more information that's gotta be distributed over the next couple weeks, and we've got, you know, a little over a month until Election Day. So I have some measure of hope that people will see through what this is. But I don't know, Jack. I think it's going to be pretty close.

[Jack Armstrong]

You're absolutely right. I can't believe, silly me, I thought it would be about the issue itself, but people wore masks or didn't wear masks because it demonstrated, are you for Trump or not? Not because of the disease. I mean, there's all kinds of examples of that. You're for or against climate change. Because everything you can mention is, is Trump for it or not? So, yeah, of course this is going to be that.

[Lon Hee Chen]

Yeah. And I mean, it's interesting. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was actually the governor who originally led California's effort to turn our redistricting away from the politicians and to independent citizens, he actually spoke up, you know, sort of really significantly about this the other day for the first time. And, you know, even he, you know, he's no great supporter of Donald Trump, but he said, listen, the effort that Gavin Newsom and his allies are undertaking with this proposition, that effort is really an effort to give the power to redistrict back to politicians and away from kind of an independent, more independent process, which we've had in California since 2008 and 2010 for congressional seats. We've had this process in place. And by the way, the process we've had has drawn complaints from both Republicans and Democrats, which is how, you know, it's working. Okay. Probably. Right. And so I. It was interesting to see Schwarzenegger get involved. I think a few other people may get involved who are not your usual suspects on this sort of thing. So I hope that voters are able to at least understand what the basic question is, which is, do we believe that district lines in California should be drawn by politicians or by citizens? And that's the fundamental question.

[Jack Armstrong]

So I see a lot of national pundits who aren't from California that are really high, and I mean, people that lean right, who are really high on Gavin Newsom's chances of becoming president. I feel like being closer to him. I'm not as high. Where are you on that?

[Lon Hee Chen]

Well, look, I think there's two things here, Jack. First of all, there's just an absence of strong leadership on the Democratic side of the aisle. I'd say people who are perceived to be out there, and whatever you think of what Newsom's doing, he's out there. So I think that's the first thing is just politics abhors a vacuum, and Newsom has stepped into that in a very real way. I think the other reason that people sort of see him positively, particularly given what he's been doing with this redistricting proposition, is you gotta think about the composition of the Democratic primary electorate. And it's going to, on average, be more activist, more left of center. And Newsom's politics are a good match for that. So I think that's probably why people feel at a national level.

[Jack Armstrong]

I agree 100%. I could see him getting the nomination. That wouldn't surprise me. How can you run for president with. I just feel like the homeless situation, the fact that people are leaving your state for the first time ever, a lot of those things. How do you overcome that?

[Lon Hee Chen]

Well, I think that's what a campaign is for, right? I think people need to be reminded. It's very easy. We have, in politics, recency bias. And so we look at, you know, what has someone done in the last 60 days or last minute, right? And we. And we forget about the French Laundry. We forget about, you know, his record. We forget about his record in San Francisco. We forget about his extremely progressive past, which I think is out of step with the vast majority of the American people. So that's what a campaign is for. A campaign is there to remind people of someone's record and who they are. And by the way, people can say, we know that. We're comfortable with it. I don't know that that's where they'll come out on someone like Gavin Newsom. But let's see. Let's see. I mean, like you, Jack, I think being in or near California and seeing him in action up close for the last eight years, I think we have a point of view that might be very different from a point of view if it hasn't been in your face for the last eight.

[Jack Armstrong]

Just curious, since You're a smart guy and, you know, policy guy and all that. You spend a moment of your life thinking about the Epstein files.

[Lon Hee Chen]

No, no, I don't. And I, and I find it interesting how, how much Carry the story has in the sense that, I mean, I just keeps coming back. It's like, you know, it's like a bad infection coming back. Like, I, I just can't think of. I mean, that is the sort of analogy I think of because I just, every time I hear about the Epstein files or Epstein, I just cringe because I know there's nothing redeeming about this at all. This discussion about, about Epstein is nothing redeeming about it. It doesn't make us better as a country to have a conversation about the Epstein files. But, you know, whatever people are interested in what they're interested in, I don't want it to mean that. But for me personally, I have no interest in it.

[Jack Armstrong]

Me neither. What is, what is on your radar?

[Lon Hee Chen]

Well, I mean, we've talked a little bit about the redistricting thing. I think that's a big deal. And then I am thinking a lot about as we go into this fall and into next year, you mentioned the whole thing with the Federal Reserve and with rate cuts and what might happen there. I do think the economy, we've got to kind of see what's happening because the message that I keep getting when I talk to, you know, everyday Californians that, you know, when I'm around and out. Yeah. I think there are a lot of people who are, who are still having a tough time given the economy and they're looking at prices still being probably a little higher than they like. And you kind of wonder how the economy is going to perform. I'm optimistic about it. I think as we go into next year, things are going to pick up. But that is one thing that I'm concerned about. What the collective impact of all of the different policies we've seen in all of the division in Washington, what that will mean going into next year. I think that's going to be an issue worth watching as well.

[Jack Armstrong]

He is the Director of Domestic Policy Studies at Stanford University and all around good and smart guy. Lan Hee Chen, thanks for your time today.

[Lon Hee Chen]

Hey, Jack. Always great to be with you. Thanks.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see if Gavin can pull off running away from what he has been in California for all these years. But anyway, we'll have plenty of time.

[Lon Hee Chen]

To talk about that Armstrong and Gettysburg.

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