Why Such Small Arms?

Summary

Armstrong & Getty On Demand

Episode: "Why Such Small Arms?"
Date: May 27, 2026
Host: Armstrong & Getty (Jack Armstrong & Joe Getty), with guest Sarah Isger

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Episode Overview

This episode of Armstrong & Getty delves into a variety of hot topics, blending the hosts' signature humor, skepticism, and political analysis. Major talking points include skepticism about presidential health disclosures, controversies over tech in education, the impact of AI on middle-class jobs, geopolitical concerns in Europe, a fun detour into the evolutionary puzzle of T. Rex's small arms, and an in-depth interview with legal commentator Sarah Isger about the Supreme Court and her new book, "Last Branch Standing."
The show wraps with a discussion on public misunderstandings about the Court and polling, leaving listeners informed and entertained.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Presidential Health and Transparency

[03:31-04:13]

• Media reported President Trump’s medical checkup; skepticism is expressed about the transparency of presidential health reports.
• Jack Armstrong: “The idea that we would get the truth out of these is to me hilarious.”
• Joe Getty: Questions whether such transparency is even wise, noting national security risks.

2. Teachers Unions and Technology in Schools

[04:26-06:37]

• Discussion of political leanings among teachers union leadership; recent statements by union figures against excessive screen use among young children.
• Jack Armstrong: Criticizes partial bans on screens, arguing for broader tech restrictions in class.
• Joe Getty: Points to pressures on educators to justify their salaries through constant “innovation,” sometimes forgoing effective traditions like phonics.

3. AI’s Impact on Middle-Class Jobs

[07:38-09:58]

• Phoenix’s rise as a hub for cubicle jobs and how AI and offshoring are destroying many such positions.
• Joe Getty: Highlights the loss of “vital ladder[s] to the middle class.”
• Jack Armstrong: Raises questions about what support, such as universal basic income, will follow these disruptions.

4. European Geopolitics and NATO

[10:23-12:56]

• Concerns raised over Russia’s aggressive statements toward Baltic states and cutbacks in US military commitments to NATO.
• Joe Getty: Notes this shift under Trump, saying, “Trump is not wrong on this. Things feel a little touchy… to go too hardcore down that road, but people can differ.”

5. Why Does T. Rex Have Small Arms?

[13:04-14:22]

• Discussion of a new Royal Society research paper:
  • T. Rex evolved shorter arms as skulls grew, favoring powerful jaws over claws for predation.
  • The phenomenon is consistent across 85 dinosaur species.
• Joe Getty: Uses the metaphor that “T. Rex arms” refer to people who dodge paying the bill.
• Jack Armstrong: Shares a fun anecdote about chickens with weighted tails to simulate T. Rex gait.

6. Listener Hate Mail - A Moment of Humor

[15:00-16:25]

• The hosts read out a scathing voicemail from a listener who can’t fathom “how you two knuckleheads got a radio show.”
• Joe Getty:
  “Yet, Donald Trump is my uncle.”

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Featured Interview: Sarah Isger on the Supreme Court

[26:23-42:18]

Guest Introduction and Book Premise

• Sarah Isger: Editor of SCOTUSblog, host of Advisory Opinions Podcast, ABC News legal analyst, author of “Last Branch Standing.”
• Purpose: Her new book argues that the Supreme Court is the most functional branch of government—but is never the “last word,” as Americans hold ultimate power through Congress and constitutional amendments.

Notable Insights & Quotes

• Why Is the Supreme Court the Focus of So Much Attention?
  [28:02-30:26]

  • “It is never the last word in any of these fights ... If you don’t like something the Supreme Court decided, we can amend the Constitution... Most of the decisions from the Supreme Court are actually just up to Congress.”
    — Sarah Isger (28:02)

• Congress’s Failure and the Rise of the Executive Branch

  • Executive orders have increasingly replaced legislation due to Congressional inaction, leading to transient policies that disappear with administrative turnover.
  • “We keep electing people who are really good at putting out Instagram reels yelling about how the other side is the problem.”
    — Sarah Isger (29:02)

• Is the Court Really Partisan? [31:42-34:47]

  • Only 9% of cases in the last term were split along conservative/liberal lines; 42% were unanimous.
    • “If that’s how you’re predicting the outcome of Supreme Court cases, you’re going to get it wrong more than 90% of the time.”
      — Sarah Isger (31:42)
  • Trump lost more major cases than any president in US history; this Court overturns less precedent and takes fewer cases than previous courts.

• Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, and the Myth of Ideological Cloning
  [33:49-34:47]

  • Kavanaugh and Gorsuch, though similar backgrounds, only agreed 50% of the time last term; Kavanaugh is more of a “team player,” while Gorsuch is a “soloist.”

• Declining Trust and Partisanship Threats [35:11-36:31]

  • SCOTUS is still more popular than the other branches, but risks exist from filibuster removal, lack of bipartisan judicial appointments, and the increasing politicization of the bench.

• How the Court Actually Operates [36:31-39:31]

  • Both sides increasingly care about outcomes rather than process—contrary to the Court’s function of deciding “who gets to decide,” not which policy is “correct.”
  • “Their question is, who gets to decide whether that’s a good book or a bad book?”
    — Sarah Isger (37:02)

• Future of Legal Philosophy

  • The old liberal “living Constitution” approach is gone, but nothing has replaced it—leaving justices like Ketanji Brown Jackson trying to build a new liberal judicial philosophy.

• Polling Problems [40:04-42:01]

  • Issue polling is deeply flawed compared to candidate polling:
    • “When we do candidate polling, we can actually judge whether the poll was any good because we have an election day. ... We never can do that with issue polling.”
      — Sarah Isger (40:04)
  • People respond with what they think the pollster wants, conflating issues with their presidential preference.
  • When asked if she internally cringes at superficial poll headlines, she replies:
    • “I sort of turn into like a Rain Man type figure where I start saying that that’s not a real poll, that’s not a real poll. Don’t do it.”
      — Sarah Isger (42:01)

Closing the Interview

• Both hosts praise Isger’s clarity and her ability to explain legal topics for a general audience.
• “She can explain stuff so well to idiots like me. I really enjoy it.”
  — Jack Armstrong (46:36)

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Additional Memorable Moments

On AI’s Dinner Table Uses

[20:16-23:39]

• Jack Armstrong: Praises AI’s utility, from auto repair advice to medical photo analysis to cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT).
• The hosts joke about sending photos of poop to AI instead of friends.
• Joe Getty: “So I can stop sending pictures of my poop to my friends and send it to AI instead.” (21:29)

Rage, Politics, and Fundraising

[47:32-47:39]

• Joe Getty: Critiques the trend toward outrage-based engagement in politics—a phenomenon now targeting the Supreme Court:
  “The surest way to raise people’s attention and money is to convince them that there’s a horrible injustice being done and they’ve got to be really, really angry. And the Supreme Court now, with its outsized influence for the reasons Sarah was describing, that’s become a target of rage in a way that is not helpful.”

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Notable Quotes

• Sarah Isger:

  • “It is never the last word in any of these fights ... it is always up to the American people.” (28:02)
  • “Executive orders were generally struck down by courts, or President Trump came in and repealed them ... But it taught Congress that they don’t need to do legislation anymore...” (29:18)
  • “Only 9% of the cases... were along ideological lines. If that's how you’re predicting the outcome... you'll be wrong more than 90% of the time.” (31:42)
  • “When we do candidate polling... there is a backstop... We never can do that with issue polling.” (40:04)

• Jack Armstrong:

  • “What’s the total amount of people that have lost jobs to AI? ... But at what point do you start compensating for this? I don’t know. Nobody’s said.” (09:41)
  • “She can explain stuff so well to idiots like me. I really enjoy it.” (46:36)

• Joe Getty:

  • “The surest way to raise people’s attention and money is to convince them that there’s a horrible injustice being done and they’ve got to be really, really angry.” (47:32)
  • “So I can stop sending pictures of my poop to my friends and send it to AI instead.” (21:29)

---

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Presidential Health “Transparency” Discussion: [03:31-04:26]
• Education and Tech/Screens: [04:56-06:47]
• AI, Middle-Class Jobs, Office Space: [07:38-09:58]
• Russia, NATO, US Military Commitments: [10:23-12:56]
• T. Rex Debate & Evolutionary Science: [13:04-14:22]
• Listener Hate Text: [15:00-16:25]
• AI Advice in Daily Life: [20:16-23:39]
• Sarah Isger Interview Begins: [26:23]
• Isger on Supreme Court as “Most Functional Branch”: [28:02]
• Partisanship Data & Misconceptions: [31:42]
• Judicial Philosophy Shifts: [38:21]
• Problems With Issue Polling: [40:04-42:01]
• Interview Ends: [42:18]
• Post-Interview Reflections: [45:46-47:39]

---

Conclusion

This episode masterfully covers the intersection of pop culture, politics, and legal institutions, using both humor and clear-eyed analysis. Armstrong & Getty’s easy banter is punctuated by Sarah Isger’s data-driven myth-busting, making this a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the realities (and misconceptions) of American institutions—especially the Supreme Court—in 2026.

Transcript

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[Sarah Isger]

Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio at the George Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe Getty Armstrong and Getty.

[Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship Announcer]

And now here's Armstrong and Getty.

[News Reporter]

The White House is billing this as a routine annual dental and medical evaluation, though it's actually his third medical exam in the past year. All told, the President spent about three and a half hours at Walter Reed Medical center today. White House officials telling us we should get a readout from the President's doctor within the next day or so. Although as you mentioned, Trump delivered his own report right after the visit, which he called a six month physical. He said everything checked out perfectly.

[Jack Armstrong]

I don't worry that Trump's got dementia or some secret major health illness or whatever like that, but the idea that we would get the truth out of these is to me hilarious.

[Joe Getty]

Or even should.

[Jack Armstrong]

Or yes, or even should. Yeah, let's announce to China and all our enemies and Iran, everything like that. Oh, he's really struggling right now mentally and physically. So now would be a good time to try to take advantage of him. Yeah, they're not going to tell us.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, as so often happens, the very premise of the left is completely wrong. To continue briefly our discussion of last hour, and we don't have to dig into this in full right now, but I want to eventually. The new leader of Massachusetts Top Teachers Union is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who says the US Is fascist, borders are for colonizers, and Israel is genocidal. All right, it's the head of the teachers union thinks this country is fascist.

[Jack Armstrong]

Speaking of heads of teachers unions, Randy Weingarten just came out with a statement that I agree with in part. It's hilariously falling short because of the parent backlash against rapid tech use in schools. Randy Weingarten has signed on to no screens for second graders or younger and no AI chatbots for students in elementary schools.

[Joe Getty]

Why?

[Jack Armstrong]

We all don't agree on a blanket ban of no Screens in schools, period. I do not know. It's insane to me. So second graders and youngers. Younger, of course. If you're in third, fourth, fifth grade, or a senior in high school, sitting there staring at your phone is perfectly okay while they try to teach you. What the hell are we doing?

[Joe Getty]

Keep in mind that if you have a PhD in education or a master's, but especially your really advanced degrees, the only thing that can possibly justify your high, high salary is if you innovate. And they're so obsessed with it that they'll abandon something like phonics that works perfectly. It's a miracle of effective teaching. But they've got to flush it to make their salary worth it. We've come up with a new innovative way. Well, the screens and the tech were that for a lot of your education PhDs, we're going to usher in a new era of individualized blah, blah, blah. And they've invested zillions of dollars in this stuff. So, yeah, getting them to say, no, we were totally wrong. In fact, it's accomplishing the opposite of what we said. It's a disaster and a squandering of taxpayer money. Yeah, good luck with that.

[Jack Armstrong]

If you want to learn some interesting stuff about the Supreme Court and it's positive news, stay tuned. Because Sarah Isger in her new book, Last Branch Standing, later this hour.

[Joe Getty]

And it will cut through a lot of the just utter crap that you hear about the Supreme Court these days, too. A couple of stupid headlines. We will get to. We can get to at least one. I'll let Jack choose which one after some serious news. Your choice is between a. The race for California governor has become a battle over facial hair.

[Sarah Isger]

Huh?

[News Reporter]

Or.

[Joe Getty]

New study suggests to have found why T. Rex evolved to have smaller arms.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, my. I think.

[Joe Getty]

Why the T. Rex arms?

[Jack Armstrong]

I think my son told me about that. The other day I saw Katie Porter grew a handlebar mustache. So is that what that's all about?

[Joe Getty]

Yes, it is. It is. And it's waxed. It's curled at the ends. It's surprisingly alluring. Yes.

[Jack Armstrong]

Got Wyatt Earp vibes.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah. So I made reference to this last hour. Phoenix built an empire of cubicle jobs, and AI is tearing it down. The number of jobs lost and cubicle jobs, they're talking like customer service, data entry, payroll process, that sort of thing.

[Jack Armstrong]

I've done that.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah. Which, as the Journal points out, created a vital ladder to the middle class, which helped replace factory work which we exported during the. China's going to be our buddy if we just enrich them. Idiotic period of our lives. But offshoring has been chipping away at back office jobs for decades. But around 16 and a half million Americans still work in that sort of job. But that's down a million and a half in the last five years or so. And the number of customer service representatives in metro Phoenix alone has tumbled 26% in the most recent four year span that the Department of Labor measured. Those jobs are going away in a big hurry to AI systems and some additional offshoring.

[Jack Armstrong]

So you lose those jobs and then you got all that office space that will be empty, which is its own disruptor.

[Joe Getty]

Right, right. And you know, I've been to Phoenix plenty. My dad lives in that area. But it's. It hadn't dawned on me that many of those sprawling, you know, three, four story office campuses, that's what was happening there. Phoenix, because it had relatively inexpensive labor and relatively inexpensive real estate, became like the nation center of that sort of thing. But now it's getting hit hard.

[Jack Armstrong]

How about all those empty giant buildings where people were in there doing data entry of some sort? That's something.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, yeah. In bore. Indoor pickleball courts, clearly. And as usual, as you are the only commentator in America asking this question, okay, all those jobs have been lost to AI. When does the universal high income kick in?

[Jack Armstrong]

Right.

[Joe Getty]

How will those people get like back pay? Or when does this switch get flipped?

[Jack Armstrong]

What's the total amount of people that have lost jobs to AI? Is it over a million yet? 10,000 here, 20,000 there. Thousand there. We've heard a lot of these. But at what point do you start compensating for this? I don't know. Nobody's said right.

[Joe Getty]

Meta. For instance, Mark Zuckerberg's outfit has laid off tens of thousands of people in recent months for AI driven reasons. And they make a tiny load of money. So when is the redistribution going to start, Elon? I would like to know that. Totally different topic. Europe is starting to think Putin will expand the war beyond Ukraine.

[Jack Armstrong]

Wow.

[Joe Getty]

Russia.

[Jack Armstrong]

And he's losing in Ukraine. Why would he expand it? Like as a distraction or.

[Joe Getty]

Well, yeah, to rally the country. And I can't imagine how it would work. But Russia's been making increasingly bellicose statements against the Baltic states. You're Latvia and Lithuania and Estonia. It has threatened to bomb decision making centers in Latvia after accusing the country of hosting Ukrainian drone operators, which the Latvian authorities deny. Air raid alarms were sounded in Lithuania last week, forcing the government into a bunker after suspected Russian drones approached its airspace from Belarus. And the Russian Ministry of Defense has published the addresses of companies allegedly working on drone production with Ukraine in eight different European countries, warning of, quote, unpredictable consequences and sharp escalation if military assistance to Kiev does not cease.

[Jack Armstrong]

If Russia went into Lithuania, Latvia, one of those countries, we're bogged down in Iran. We're not going to like, spend a lot of time, hey, Europe, you're worried about it, do something yourself. The whole Article 5 NATO thing, I think, just gets ignored more or less.

[Joe Getty]

Well, especially now under Trump. The other headline is that the Pentagon is cutting forces earmarked for Europe in the event of a crisis. We had a plan. We will immediately send X number of troops to Europe. The Pentagon is substantially scaling back the forces it plans to send to Europe in a crisis, a fresh step by the Trump administration to shrink its military support for NATO. A Defense Department official notified NATO allies of the planned cutbacks in a closed door meeting last week in Brussels. Current and former officials who have been briefed on the meeting said the Trump administration aims to reduce by 1 3rd to 1/2 the pool of various military capabilities it would devote to NATO in a conflict, including US Commitments of strategic bombers and other long range strike forces, some naval assets, and air to air refueling tankers. And it comes ahead. That move comes ahead of the meeting of NATO leaders in Turkey, in July, where Trump is expected to attend the meeting and press other allied leaders to shoulder more of the burden on Europe's defense, which has needed to happen for a very, very long time if a guy's gonna take a look at both sides of this issue. Trump is not wrong on this. Things feel a little touchy to me right now to go too hardcore down that road, but people can differ.

[Jack Armstrong]

If you're willing to explain why T. Rexes have tiny arms, I've got a really entertaining hate text for us. Oh, good.

[Joe Getty]

Excellent. So, a new study claims to have solved the long standing mystery why T. Rexes have such disproportionately small arms, which have given people like me an excellent metaphor for somebody who never picks up the check or disappears when it's time for everybody to kick in. Oh, they got T. Rex arms. They can't quite reach the bill.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, no, they can't get.

[Joe Getty]

They can't even get to their wallet. That's too bad. Yeah, I'll name names, too. Anyway, a Royal Society research paper published in May suggests that the T. Rex, which average more than 40ft long with arms stretching just 3ft, naturally evolved smaller arms as its skull grew Larger. They looked at 85 dinosaur species and found a consistent correlation among five groups that I won't bother mentioning because I'll mispronounce half of them, each showing a pattern of larger skulls and shorter forelimbs and time that increased, you know, proportionately more and more as the dinosaurs evolved over millions of years. The idea being once your head and jaws got as big and powerful as they were, that's how you're going to engage your prey. You're not going to bother wrestling with them or trying to claw at them or you're just going to chomp on them.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah. If you've ever seen a good T. Rex skeleton or model or whatever, their heads are ginormous. My son, who's super into dinosaurs and evolution and wants to study that for his life, I think, was showing me a video where they took chickens and they put some sort of a weighted tail on them that would be similar to a T. Rex, and they think that shows you what a T. Rex would have walked like. Since a T. Rex and a chicken are very similar, they just have a heavy.

[Joe Getty]

It's innovative.

[Jack Armstrong]

So it's kind of the way what it was.

[Joe Getty]

So you're saying the T. Rex was delicious when fried.

[Jack Armstrong]

Okay, here's our hate text. It's actually, I think, a voicemail, so maybe we'll have to get the audio because I'd kind of like to hear what this person sounds like because it came out through Google Voice, but I've got the print version. Yeah, I just didn't want to waste my time on interrupting your ridiculous, absolutely ridiculous show. But I did want to leave a message and say I listen to talk radio 90% of the time in my car, and I just don't have any idea on Earth how you two knuckleheads got a radio show. It is absolutely just beyond me and some of the greatest radio hosts I've listened to over the years how you two yo yos ever got a radio show. So you must have contacts with an owner of a station or related to somebody, because you absolutely are the most nonsensical people ever, I have ever heard

[Joe Getty]

on a radio show. Yet. Donald Trump is my uncle.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh, my God.

[Joe Getty]

Oh, geez.

[Jack Armstrong]

There's so many options out there. I don't know why you wouldn't just. I don't. I've never understood people who take in entertainment that they don't like

[Joe Getty]

and then decide to explain to the musician or artist or talk show host why I don't like you. Okay. All right.

[Jack Armstrong]

Dear Paramount, I've been watching this series on Netflix every night and I just hate it. There's a 8 million.

[Joe Getty]

There's way too much romance in it and too much talking. I prefer more action packed sequences. What is the matter? I can't imagine how you even became a movie studio.

[Jack Armstrong]

You knuckleheads must know somebody.

[Joe Getty]

I wish we had somebody.

[Jack Armstrong]

We got a lot more on the way, including Sarah Isger about the Supreme Court. Gonna be good stuff.

[Sarah Isger]

Stay here Armstrong and Getty.

[Jack Armstrong]

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lost support through telehealth, but it feels overwhelming and rushed. Check out orderlymeds.com now. Orderlymeds.com was built to be different. Here you connect with real doctors who take the time to understand your goals, review your eligibility and guide you through a plan that's right for you. Orderly Meds provides access to proven GLP1 medications like semaglutide and Tirzepatide, including both name brand options and personalized compound versions when appropriate. So you have choices backed by Clinical oversight, not guesswork. It's a simpler, more supportive telehealth experience designed around people who want clarity, care and confidence in their weight loss journey. And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging so your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research, ask the right questions, then visit orderlymeds.com podcast for an exclusive offer. Again, that's orderlymeds.com podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice, eligibility required. See Cite for details.

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Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index. With AI it all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index, and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast enter earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public

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Complete disclosures [e-mail] disclosures I've talked up

[Jack Armstrong]

AI quite a bit for like advice with various things, all kinds of things. Had a problem my my son's truck wouldn't start the other day. Like why is it not starting? I gave it the specifics on a, you know, the year model and everything like that. Man, it nailed it. Narrowed down to such a specific things, it's incredible. But on like personal relationships like that is therapy. And so I don't know if you all know who Mark Andreessen is. He's a columnist with the Washington Post, I think. Anyway, he was on Joe Rogan for three hours the other day talking about the benefits of AI and he was talking up the therapy thing for one. A couple of things caught my eye because there was some stuff bouncing around in our social media world and our Twitter feed about somebody claiming that the trouble with AI is it just it just tells you what you want to hear. All the time, I've not had that experience. But you, you can make sure that you don't have that experience pretty easily. But anyway, let me hit you with a couple of things that Mark Andreessen said that AI can do for you already. You can send AI photos of almost anything medical now and get a real second opinion very quickly. Skin rashes, blood test results, a mole, pictures of your poop. The new models can read images, not just text. And it's a free 24.7second opinion on basically anything that's very accurate.

[Joe Getty]

Wow. So I can stop sending pictures of my poop to my friends and send it to AI instead.

[Jack Armstrong]

Or I have an excuse for why I have so many pictures of poop on my phone. Oh, no, no, no. That makes sense. Trust me.

[Joe Getty]

Oh, my, oh, my.

[Jack Armstrong]

Oh. He mentioned here that the best AI coders in Silicon Valley are making $50 million a year working for the various AI companies. They're so in demand, each company wants to have the very best.

[Joe Getty]

Wow.

[Jack Armstrong]

Here's a guy who paid $200 to get his entire DNA decoded. This usually costs millions of dollars and takes years to do. Soon we'll all be getting this done.

[Joe Getty]

Take a picture of his DNA or how does that work?

[Jack Armstrong]

Somebody put cameras around them for their home jiu jitsu gym, and now AI watches them and gives. It's like having a world class coach. You could do it with golf, tennis, all kinds of different things.

[Sarah Isger]

Whoa.

[Joe Getty]

What system does he use?

[Jack Armstrong]

I don't know. It didn't, it didn't get into that.

[Joe Getty]

But wow.

[Jack Armstrong]

I'll skip to this one just because we're about out of time, because I thought it was really interesting. The one type of therapy that's clinically proven to actually work in the world is cognitive behavioral therapy, cbt. It's also something AI can fully do on its own, which means every person on Earth is about to have access to a real therapist for free, anytime they want. I have had that experience with like family stuff and all kinds of stuff. But he suggests if you tell the AI to steel man the other side of this, like whatever it tells you to do, make your argument for the other side. You'll get a good presentation of both sides and you can go from there. And I have done that. And it's amazing. It's like watching two really smart people in a debate about your topic. And you can, you know, if you have any level of intelligence, I think, come away with it, what you think is the best course.

[Joe Getty]

Right?

[Jack Armstrong]

As opposed to telling you everything you want.

[Joe Getty]

To hear a more nuanced and confident view of why you believe what you believe. Yeah, I asked it a question about a weather phenomenon the other day and the answer was just fascinating. It was absolutely fabulous. I think taking a college class, I

[Jack Armstrong]

think the first time I ever heard the term steel man as opposed to straw man was from Sarah Isger on one of her podcasts. And we're going to talk to her coming up next about her book she's got out about the Supreme Court. It's really good.

[Joe Getty]

She has such a gift for making this stuff understandable. Just terrific.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, and a question I've been wanting to ask her for a very long time. Man, if you miss it, get the podcast Armstrong and Getty on Demand Armstrong

[Sarah Isger]

and getty

[America 250 Announcer]

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[Sarah Isger]

when

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[Public Investing Announcer]

Support for the show comes from Public, the investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year. You can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are like ETFs with infinite possibilities, completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com podcast and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com podcast paid for by Public

[Public Investing Legal Disclaimer]

Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

[Public Investing Announcer]

Complete disclosures available at public.com Disclosures Combat

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sports fans this January it's the Bruise Cruise Party with Fighters Watch a bare knuckle fighting event live in the Caribbean. Plus DJs, bands and chaos at sea. Prices increase soon. Hop aboard now. Go to bkfsea.com We've been wanting to

[Jack Armstrong]

get Sarah Isger on for a long time. First became aware of her on the Dispatch and the podcast stuff there. And man, anytime any big legal story breaks I go to her Twitter feed or wait for the podcast she does with David French Advisory Opinions to get it laid out and couldn't be happier to have her today.

[Joe Getty]

Yep, we're both big fans of Sarah Isger, editor of scotus, blog, host of the legal podcast Advisory Opinions, legal analyst for ABC News, and author of a fabulous new book, Last Branch Standing, a potentially surprising, occasionally witty journey inside today's Supreme Court. A book so timely and important I believe it should be a compulsory read for every American. Not sure how that squares with the First Amendment. Sarah, welcome. How are you?

[Sarah Isger]

I'm great. Thank you guys for having me.

[Jack Armstrong]

You betcha. Before we let you lay out the book and here's the deal I'm going to make with you. Even though we have no leverage, you're like the Hormuz straight. We have no leverage over you. But we're going to let you now go out and buy a hardbound copy of your book today. Even though I'm getting a promotional copy. If I can get you to do one of your screeds and there's so many I would like Screed might be prejudicial. Maybe I'll go with presentation or something like that. But and I could have you do why the whole crying fire in a crowded movie house is mischief misrepresented there. I mean, there's so many of them I've heard you do that that I

[Joe Getty]

love her greatest hits.

[Jack Armstrong]

Why there are no parties anymore and it's a waste of time. I want to have you lay out the pointlessness of issue polling after the book because I want you to do that for our audience. I really do.

[Joe Getty]

Excellent.

[Sarah Isger]

No problem. Done. I mean, you don't have to go to me into like doing a rant. I love a rant.

[Jack Armstrong]

Good.

[Joe Getty]

All right. First things first, though. Tell us about Last Branch Standing.

[Sarah Isger]

Well, part of the reason for this book is to convince Americans that, yes, they're hearing so much more about the Supreme Court and that it is actually our most functional branch of government. But it is never the last word in any of these fights that we're having on politics, on culture war, anything else, it is always up to the American people. If you don't like something. The Supreme Court decided we can amend the Constitution. We used to do it pretty frequently in response to Supreme Court decisions. Most of the decisions from the Supreme Court are actually just up to Congress. If you don't like partisan gerrymandering, Congress can deal with that today. We just don't expect them to. We don't make them. And we continue to vote for people who have no interest in actually legislating because legislation requires compromise, negotiation, actually working with someone who disagrees with you. And instead, we keep electing people who are really good at putting out Instagram reels yelling about how the other side is the problem.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, I've listened to you so much, I actually know what your answers are gonna be to all my questions, but I'll ask them anyway.

[Joe Getty]

You're half a stalker.

[Jack Armstrong]

I am. I'm a fanboy.

[Joe Getty]

Down, boy. Down.

[Jack Armstrong]

What changed? Why, you know, if we used to amend the Constitution all the time, what changed?

[Sarah Isger]

Yeah, I mean, a few things. We can go back 100 years to the Progressive era, Woodrow Wilson, Teddy Roosevelt. They really wanted to remake the United States government and move away from Congress again, that messy, long negotiating process. And they wanted it all to be housed by experts and independent agencies who would be shielded from political influence. So we've been doing that experiment for about 100 years. And then during the second term of the Obama administration, when his immigration legislation failed in the House because Republicans wouldn't vote for it, he decided to do executive orders to implement legislation. Now, it didn't last long. Those executive orders were generally struck down by courts, or President Trump came in and repealed them all his first day in office. But it taught Congress that they don't need to do legislation anymore, because when their party has the White House, they can get everything that they want. And sure, it's only for a couple years, but they get the Rose Garden address, their base is happy, and nobody remembers a few years later whose fault it is when it all disappears.

[Jack Armstrong]

The whole I have a pen and a phone thing took precedence.

[Sarah Isger]

So essentially, then Congress under government by executive order at this point.

[Joe Getty]

Right. I was just going to say. So Congress is not legislating in the executive branch. Is, is that most of the reason there's so much of a spotlight on the Supreme Court these days or what else is happening?

[Sarah Isger]

I think that's right. You know, because Congress is where we were supposed to work out these problems again, you know, I'm thinking of cases that are waiting at the Supreme Court right now. Birthright citizenship, asylum at the southern border, whether Mississippi can accept mail in ballots five days after the election. All of those are questions we're supposed to work out in Congress. But because none of us believe that will happen, we end up bringing lawsuits to court and asking the courts to work those out for us. And so then we focus a lot more on the courts. It becomes really important who these judges are and they become part of our partisan disagreements instead of sort of the place of last resort to sort of, you know, be a referee.

[Jack Armstrong]

And we've seen the declining popularity numbers for the Supreme Court because of this, putting them in an impossible situation on a bunch of this stuff. Reply to this this is an out of control right wing Trump court.

[Sarah Isger]

Yeah, the data isn't great for people who argue that. So last term for six, three cases, you know, where all of the Republican appointees vote one way and all of the Democratic appointees vote the other way, which is what you would expect if this were a Republican red team versus blue team court that accounted for. Drumroll. Nine percent of the cases. So if that's how you're predicting the outcome of Supreme Court cases, you're going to get it wrong more than 90% of the time. And even if you include the five, four cases, conservatives, it turns out exactly equal numbers had all of the liberals in dissent versus having all the liberals in the majority and only conservatives in dissent Instead, you know, 42% of the cases are unanimous. That's the most likely outcome of any case at the Supreme Court. Very few, as I say, fall against partisan lines. The other things we'd expect if this were a Trump Supreme Court, well, first of all, I guess we'd expect Trump to actually win some cases right now. Every major policy question that has come before the Supreme Court, he has lost. Immigration? Alien Enemies Act. Nope. Federalizing the National Guard? Nope. Terrorists? Nope. Birthright citizenship. I will bet you a shiny nickel that one's a hard no. So he keeps losing. In fact, in his first term, he lost more than any president in United States history. He's the first president to ever be below 50% at the Supreme Court, we'd expect them to be overturning precedent. Nope. This court is overturning fewer precedents than any court in modern history. We'd expect them to be taking more cases. Nope. This court is taking fewer cases than any court in recent history. So no matter what way you look at it, the data just isn't there. For the people who want to argue that this is a partisan court, well,

[Joe Getty]

let's be honest about what animates virtually all of modern politics. You just raised $0 for the Democratic Party, Sarah, so thanks for wasting our time. You noted, and I found this so interesting, that Brett Kavanaugh was more likely to agree with Elena Kagan than Neil Gorsuch.

[Jack Armstrong]

What's going on there?

[Sarah Isger]

Yeah. So, I mean, Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch are basically twins. They went to high school together. They had the same history teacher. They clerked on the court together. They were circuit judges at the same time. They were appointed by the same president. They are Federalist Society lab creations with good hair and conservative judicial principles. But last term, they only agreed with each other 50% of the time. As you say, Justice Kavanaugh was more likely to agree with Justice Kag than he was with Justice Gorsuch. Because Justice Kavanaugh is a high institutionalist. He thinks of this as a team sport. He likes basketball and baseball. Justice Gorsuch, he's a soloist. He likes skiing and running, solo sports. He is more like Justice Jackson, which is why you see them agreeing with each other's concurrences and why Justice Kavanaugh is the justice most likely to be in the majority. He is the swing justice.

[Jack Armstrong]

As of now, Sarah Isger's book is called Last Branch Standing in the First Sentence. And the promotional stuff is here. A myth busting glimpse into the inner workings of the Supreme Court. And you've already busted a few myths. What? How worried are you about the declining faith in the Supreme Court because of the untrue partisan things people have been saying on both sides now for several cycles?

[Sarah Isger]

Well, let me give you the good news and the bad news. The good news is that the Supreme Court is still more popular than the president or Congress. So if we're just fighting among the three branches of government, definitely the Supreme Court is winning. The bad news is that our courts tend to be a lagging indicator of our politics. So another title for the book could have been Last Branch Standing for Now, because everything that we're doing now will eventually be reflected in the courts. And there are warning signs. Getting rid of the filibuster means that we now appoint judges who didn't get any votes from the other side of the aisle. That is not great. That is going to breed more extreme judges who are outliers, and it's going to change the behavior of people who want to become judges to be more partisan, more outspoken, lock themselves into certain positions. We have forum shopping now that we didn't used to have. That's not great. You know, you could be the most fair judge in the world, but if everyone knows that one side picked you, it doesn't look that fair to anyone. So. So I think those are things we can pretty easily fix, but it's not great. And the more we pull the courts into our partisan politics, negative polarization, I mean, we have a really toxic political environment right now. We cannot have the courts reflect that.

[Joe Getty]

Let's go a little ABC. 1, 2, 3. About the Supreme Court. Kind of basic stuff. I think a lot of folks, particularly on the left, think it's about choosing the right result, period. And a lot of us on the right would like to believe that the court does nothing but look at the Constitution and the law and precedent. They may despise the result, but we've gotta go with this. That's oversimplified, obviously, but is that characterization of the left and right, at least on the right track?

[Sarah Isger]

You know, I think the conservative right wanted to think that about themselves, but it's pretty clear now that that's not true. Both sides only care about outcomes, really. You see, the right attack the Supreme Court every time they rule. Donald Trump, sometimes specific justices, in very personal terms, you know, the attacks against Justice Amy Coney Barrett got very gendery, in my opinion. And I think that there's a natural human tendency to care about the outcome. I get it. But the Supreme Court's job is never to say, you know, what the good policy is. It is to say who gets to decide. So you're mad that the book is in your local school library. The Supreme Court isn't going to tell you whether that's a good book or a bad book for kindergarteners to read. Their question is, who gets to decide whether that's a good book or a bad book? Is it the librarian? Is it the parent coming into the library? Is it the, you know, city mayor? Is it a state legislature? Is it the governor? Is it Congress? Those are the questions that the Supreme Court decides. They're never deciding which book it should be.

[Joe Getty]

Right. I meant the justice is more than the average commentator or voter. For instance, Justice Jackson strikes me as just wanting the result, no matter how she has to twist the law.

[Sarah Isger]

Well, it's interesting because the legal left, for a long time sort of had this idea of living constitutionalism. The Constitution evolves as our culture evolves, and it is up to the nine justices on the Supreme Court to decide where it has evolved to. President Lyndon Johnson famously once said, it takes two thirds of Congress and three quarters of the states to amend the Constitution. Justice Douglas can do it in an afternoon. That was really where they were. That has basically disappeared from the legal left, and yet nothing has yet replaced it. And so I think you see Justice Jackson trying to come up with a new legal philosophy for the legal left. That, yes, will produce liberal results, but they can be sort of intellectually, you know, built a new house, if you will, on the block of judicial philosophy. And look, like I said, 9% of the cases were 6, 3 along ideological lines. So I also think it's unfair to say ideology plays no role in Supreme Court decisions. 9% of the time it does. It's just that 91% of the time, something else is at work.

[Jack Armstrong]

So the book is Last Branch Standing. Couldn't recommend it more highly. I've heard Sarah talk about it in a bunch of different podcasts, and I'm sure I will eventually read it. She explains this stuff in a way that idiots like me can understand it in an entertaining way. So you have worked on presidential campaigns. You worked for Carly Fiorina. We used to have her on regularly back in the day when she was running. But anyway, I know with your background and a bunch of different, different areas, you don't think issue polling has much merit. Explain that.

[Sarah Isger]

Okay, deep breath, Sarah. Don't go too far. Okay, here's the problem. When we do candidate polling, we can actually judge whether the poll was any good because we have an election day, right? There is a backstop to the polling. We never can do that with issue polling. We can never find out whether that poll was a good poll or a bad poll. There's no way to grade it. So that's a big problem. Right. But there's another problem. When you ask people what candidate they intend to vote for, that's a very binary choice. They understand what an election is and that they're going to go in and check the box for one person or the other. And remember, those polls still aren't perfect. But when it comes to issue polling, oftentimes the question you're asking people, is it the question they think they're answering? You know, do you think the Straits of Hormuz should be open or whatever? Well, it kind of depends. What are the trade offs? Are you going to list all of the potential trade offs in that question? You've only got like 30 seconds to ask them a question and get them to answer it. And that's why you get so many different results with issue polling. It's also the case that sometimes people hear a question that can be about a very specific issue, but what they're answering, what they think they, you really want to know is, is who do you support for president? So you know, do you like X policy or Y policy? The answer is, do you like Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? And so you're rarely getting the answer that I think you want if you're asking the same question, the exact same question over time. And that moves. That is interesting to me, right? Like not the raw number, but like, oh, it has moved by seven points in the last month. Well, something then has changed if you're asking the exact same question. But that's rarely what we're doing.

[Jack Armstrong]

Do you regularly hear. Because in talk radio we do it all the time, 43% of Americans, blah blah, blah. Do you regularly slap your forehead with, oh my God, there's no way there's any accuracy there.

[Sarah Isger]

I sort of turn into like a Rain man type figure where I start saying that that's not a real poll, that's not a real poll. Don't do it. That's not a real poll.

[Jack Armstrong]

Perfect.

[Joe Getty]

Sarah Isger's new book is Last Branch Standing. Can't wait to read it too. Sarah, what a pleasure it's been. I hope we can do it again soon.

[Sarah Isger]

Absolutely. Thanks, guys.

[Jack Armstrong]

You bet. You all right?

[Joe Getty]

Thank you. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Jack Armstrong]

I've heard her go on at length about how issue polling, except in extreme situations, is almost useless. Like it's close to. You're better off having never heard it than coming away with any information.

[Joe Getty]

I have follow up comments as well.

[Jack Armstrong]

Yeah, withhold them. More on the way. Stay here.

[Sarah Isger]

Armstrong and Gettysburg.

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[Public Investing Legal Disclaimer]

Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors llc. SEC Registered Advisor Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice.

[Public Investing Announcer]

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[Jack Armstrong]

My God, Sarah is amazing. I want to kiss her brains. As one texter among many who enjoyed our interview with Sarah Isger that we just finished up, please have Sarah on as often as you can. We, we definitely will. She's a very busy person. She now her main job, now that I know she's so proud of, is editor of SCOTUS blog because she is a serious legal mind. And I think one of her great talents and it, it's a rare talent, is people who are super smart and knowledgeable about any topic who can see the way other people think about it. Not having your level of knowledge. That's what the UI thing is. Intellectual tech user interface. It's the ability to know, okay, somebody sits down at this, you know, laptop or gets in this car, what are they going to think? As opposed to someone like you who knows everything. And she can explain stuff so well to idiots like me. I really enjoy it.

[Joe Getty]

Yeah, she, she senses where her audience is and, and delivers, you know, on that level, which is great. It's a sandiferian skill. Tim is, you know, one of the best ever at it. You know, the thing that strikes me that bothers me so much about, about modern politics in the Supreme Court is that enthusiasm's always been part of politics. And I've got some great stories about that that we really don't have time for, but about how it was in the old timey days. But enthusiasm these days means rage most of the time. The surest way to raise people's attention and money is to convince them that there's a horrible injustice being done and they've got to be really, really angry. And the Supreme Court now, with its outsized influence for the reason Sarah was describing, that's become a target of rage in a way that is not helpful. That's not supposed to be their vibe at all.

[Jack Armstrong]

Well, if presidents would quit thinking they can fix everything with an executive order, it would help if you missed our interview with Sarah.

[Joe Getty]

Get the podcast, please.

[Sarah Isger]

Armstrong and Gettys.

[America 250 Announcer]

This July 4th, come celebrate at America's Block Party. Hosted by America 250. America's Block Party is a can't miss 4th of July concert happening at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Experience music, performances from major artists, patriotic tributes, and the kickoff to giving 4th helping to make July 4th the largest day of giving in American history. It's more than just fireworks. Learn more about this landmark [e-mail]

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