Since President Trump took office on January 20th, speculation about tariffs has been omnipresent in supply chain planning conversations.

But we do have a guide to the administration’s philosophy, A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, written by Stephen Miran and published by Hudson Bay Capital in November of 2024. Miran is Trump’s pick to lead his Council of Economic Advisers, and will be appearing before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs the day this episode first airs.

In his User’s Guide, Miran makes the case that it is possible to use tariffs to achieve desired outcomes without causing undue harm. At the same time, he refers to the plan as a “narrow path.”

In this week’s episode of Art of Supply, Kelly Barner shares her reading of the guide:

Why Miran - and therefore the Trump administration - believe tariffs can be used without adding to the costs paid by U.S. consumers
The difference between theoretical and actual economic scenarios, and how it makes planning a challenge
The high level of interconnectedness at play in this approach, and what will need to happen for it to work as intended

Links:

A Narrow Path Towards Noninflationary Tariffs