The gap between Beijing's stated growth rates and actual economic performance is widening considerably, says expert

Synopsis: Every third Friday of the month, The Straits Times gets its US Bureau Chief to analyse the hottest political and trending talking points.

In this episode, US Bureau Chief Bhagyashree Garekar chats with Dr Logan Wright, an expert on the Chinese economy. He is based in Washington, DC, after living and working in Beijing and Hong Kong for over two decades.

Wright is a partner at Rhodium Group, a US research and advisory group. He leads the firm’s China markets research work. He is also a senior associate of the trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

His book Broken China: How the Economic Miracle Shattered and What it Means for the World hits the stores in September 2026.

In this episode, he points out that most analysts treat the Chinese economy differently from other economies. “They tend to look at the Chinese system and say this is a different political system, it produces outputs that are long-term plans. Therefore, we filter incoming data in terms of how China is doing based on its long-term plans and its declared goals. From a financial system perspective, it looks entirely different,” he says.

He also sketches out what strikes him as the most troubling aspect of the Chinese economy today.

Highlights (click/tap above):

1:20 Analysis of China's actual growth vs. official reports

2:50 Is that a minority opinion?

5:00 The most troubling aspects of the Chinese economy

9:10 Evaluating the quality of Chinese economic data

13:00 AI's impact on returns in the Chinese economy

17:00 When will the property sector rebound?

22:00 Will policy efforts to boost domestic consumption succeed?

25:00 Will China’s low birth rates, high death rates have a large impact on growth?

27:00 The worsening problem of excess industrial capacity

29:10 Reasons South-east Asia must pay attention to China