Asianometry – "China’s Bonkers Bike-share Bubble"

Host: Jon Y
Date: December 21, 2025

Episode Overview

Jon Y explores the meteoric rise and sudden fall of China’s bike-share industry between 2017 and 2018—a period marked by explosive startup growth, billion-dollar VC rounds, fierce competition, chaotic expansion, and eventual regulatory crackdowns. Through the stories of industry giants like Ofo and Mobike, Jon not only dissects what made the bike-share bubble so "bonkers," but also situates it within China’s larger tech history of speculative bubbles and relentless market blitzscaling.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Origins of Bike-share: From Amsterdam to China

• First-generation concept: The bike-share idea traces back to 1960s Amsterdam via the White Bicycle Plan—white, unlocked bikes left for public use (00:54).
• Global evolution: Dock-based, electronic, and mobile-enabled systems followed in Denmark, France, Germany, and worldwide, making the bike a last-mile urban transit solution by the 2000s (02:50).
• China’s cycling heritage: Once known as the “Kingdom of the Bikes,” China’s love affair with bicycles peaked in the 1990s before cars took over (04:34).

2. Early Chinese Programs and Growing Pains

• Beijing’s Olympic push: The city government’s 2008 Olympic-era bike rentals illustrated scalability but also failures—high costs, poor dock location, and maintenance issues doomed sustainability (06:30).
• Private-public expansion: Cities like Wuhan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai launched their own public bike-shares, sometimes reaching tens of thousands of bikes (08:10).

3. The Rise of Ofo & Mobike: Founders, Philosophy, and Execution

Ofo

• Founded by Dai Wei and Peking University cycling club peers (09:10).
• Early iterations: bike vacation tours, second-hand exchanges, and failed experiments before pivoting to app-based dockless sharing with cheap bikes and QR code unlocks (11:05).
• Explosive campus growth: From a few hundred to 20,000 daily rides; Ofo rapidly expanded to 20 campuses after initial funding (13:34).
• Key quote (Ofo cofounder): “That was the first time we felt like we created a product with its own vitality, one that can grow.” (13:00)

Mobike

• Founded by journalist Hu Weiwei, after inspiration from EV mogul William Lee (15:05).
• William Lee provided initial capital and concept, but Hu was recognized as the driving force (18:44).
• Custom high-end bikes: Built sturdy, GPS-monitored orange bikes; high upfront cost but aimed for durability (19:20).
• Aggressive urban expansion: With CEO Davis Wang (ex-Uber), Mobike targeted city-wide coverage, head-to-head with Ofo (20:45).
• Key quote (Hu Weiwei): “You might think 17 is a small number, but in a few months, you will see millions, even tens of millions of rides per day.” (21:35)

4. Blitzscaling, Price Wars, and Tech Giant Involvement

• From campuses to city streets: As Ofo and Mobike invaded each other's turf, a “network effect” race began—cheap, abundant bikes and app convenience won users but stressed operations (25:00).
• Unit economics diverge: Ofo focused on rapid, low-cost bike deployment; Mobike on hardware and tech quality. Each bike-share vied for VC money to outgrow competitors (28:25).
• Zero-dollar price wars: Both firms offered free or near-free rides, cash rebates, and endless promotions—even during peak demand periods like Qingming Festival (33:30).
  • Key quote (Mobike CEO Davis Wang): “If I had 30% profit margin, why would I seek investors?... The reason we keep seeking investors is precisely because we don’t have a clear profit model yet.” (36:30)

5. The Bubble Peaks: Saturation, Foreign Expansion, and Problems

• Over 70 competitors: By mid-2017, new startups painted city streets in all colors, while Ofo and Mobike hoarded cash, backed by Alibaba and Tencent respectively (38:01).
• Rampant subsidies, cash burn, broken unit economics: Tens of millions of dollars burned monthly; deposit money was used to cover shortfalls—a future liability (46:30).
• Failed foreign ventures: Companies like Bluegogo tried blitzscaling to US and UK cities, running into regulation and resistance (51:20).
• Key quote (Austin Zhang, Ofo cofounder): “There will be a bubble for the industry, but as long as we continue to do practical things, then there won’t be a bubble.” (54:55)

6. The Downfall: Chaos, Regulation, and "Bike Graveyards"

• Cracks appear: Bikes are vandalized, abandoned, and pile up in public spaces. Viral images of "bike graveyards" sour public and official sentiment (58:02).
• Regulation arrives: Cities cap bike numbers, require registration, limit deployment, and enforce better bike maintenance (59:45).
• Widespread startup failures: Companies like Wukong, 3V Bike, Coolqi collapse from theft, unrealistic markets, and financial mismanagement (1:02:12).
  • Example from Wukong: “We deployed over a thousand bikes, but only managed to recover a few dozen. In the end, we didn’t bother searching for the rest either. The project was shut down. What’s the point of retrieving them now? Just consider it a public service. Ha ha.” (1:05:02)
• Major player collapses: Bluegogo files bankruptcy, mobike is bought by Meituan, and Ofo’s financial woes are compounded by investor infighting and loan refusals (1:10:15).
  • Key quote (Coolqi founder Gao Weiwei): “Entrepreneurship is too exhausting, too heartbreaking. It’s no way to live. It feels meaningless, lacking any purpose or value in striving.” (1:09:00)

7. Endgame: Mergers, Absorptions, and Survivors

• Failed mergers: Despite pressure, Ofo and Mobike can’t merge—due to pride, business philosophy, and investor wrangling (1:15:00).
• Meituan’s acquisition: Mobike is absorbed, Hu Weiwei and Davis Wang depart; Mobike rebranded as Meituan Bike (1:19:45).
• Ofo's bankruptcy: Ofo lays off thousands, fails to refund deposits, and ends as a shell, attempting pivots into advertising and e-commerce but ultimately disappearing (1:22:01).
• "Hello Bike" as survivor: Hello Bike thrives by targeting lower-tier cities and diversifying into e-bikes, exhibiting more rational competition and weathering the worst of the bubble (1:24:00).
  • Key quote (Hello Bike CFO Fisher Chen): “The competition in those spaces was more rational.” (1:26:12)

8. The Legacy of the Bike-share Bubble

• Cyclical tech bubbles: Bike-share was only one in a series of speculative, unsustainable Chinese tech booms, from taxi apps to food delivery (1:28:25).
• Aftermath: Bike-share lives on, but integrated with tech giants (Meituan, Didi’s Qingju, Hello Rides), with consolidation and government regulation preventing a repeat of 2017’s frenzy.
  • Key quote: “After the bubble popped, bikeshare was fully incorporated into the big tech giants, features a tab in an app, and with the subsidies drying up, prices increased and expansion slowed. But the messes still happened...” (1:29:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On blitzscaling and irrationality:
  “None of this made sense. Why sell your service for free during the time when people are most likely to use it? And people both in and outside the industry recognized that this was all very dumb and economically unsustainable. Yet the company's leadership seemed to feel that they had no choice.” (34:00)

• On financial mismanagement:
  “OFO financial staff reported feeling immersed in ecstasy and feeling crazy at spending a continuous flow of investments and customer deposits.” (48:30)

• On the end of a dream:
  “After the bankruptcy, Ofo tries to sell adverts on the bikes, but the bikes are now in graveyards.” (1:23:00)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Description | |---------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:54–02:50 | Bike-share’s roots: Amsterdam to global second and third generations | | 06:30–08:10 | Beijing Olympic program’s temporary bike-share surge and its lessons | | 09:10–13:34 | Ofo’s founding at Peking University and initial campus expansion | | 15:05–19:20 | Mobike origins, William Lee’s role, and hardware innovations | | 20:45–25:00 | Ofo vs Mobike – competing models, entry into cities, and network strategy | | 28:25–33:30 | Price wars and the irrational subsidy burn | | 33:30–36:30 | Investors, profits, and the logic of growth-at-any-cost | | 38:01–46:30 | Bubble peaks, saturation, and bloated operations | | 51:20–54:55 | Failed international launches | | 58:02–59:45 | Media backlash, bike graveyards, and regulatory response | | 1:02:12–1:10:15 | Startup failures, technology missteps, customer losses | | 1:15:00–1:22:01 | Crunch time: failed mergers, asset selloffs, and Ofo’s collapse | | 1:24:00–1:26:12 | Hello Bike’s survival story, strategic retreat to lower-tier cities | | 1:28:25–1:29:45 | Epilogue: bubble’s legacy, tech industry parallels |

Tone & Language

The narration is crisp, fact-rich, and lightly sardonic—Jon balances deadpan delivery with wry observation, especially when dissecting irrational business decisions and techland optimism. He frequently quotes founders and investors directly, adding color and personality, while keeping a skeptical perspective on bubble-era excesses.

Conclusion

Jon’s episode deftly chronicles China's bike-share boom and bust as a case study in unchecked tech enthusiasm, winner-take-all expansion, and inevitable consolidation. Through the lens of Ofo, Mobike, and their many competitors, listeners are given both a business-school cautionary tale and a quirky, memorable slice of modern Chinese urban life.

The episode is essential listening/reading for anyone interested in the mechanics of tech bubbles, the hazards of overfunded disruption, and the changing landscape of China’s “move fast, break things” startup culture.