Asianometry Podcast – "Drone Delivery Is Taking Off"
Host: Jon Y
Date: September 28, 2025
Episode Overview
Jon Y travels to Dublin, Ireland, to investigate the state of drone delivery and the rise of startup Mana, challenging long-held skepticism dating back to early failed attempts by tech giants like Amazon and Google. The episode dives deep into why drone delivery is succeeding in Europe, the specific operational, technical, and regulatory hurdles, and why the US market might soon be ripe for takeoff.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Early Skepticism and First Impressions
- Skepticism Rooted in History: Jon recalls Jeff Bezos’s 2013 drone announcement and Google’s similar ambitions, but notes "delivery, especially in the United States, is still done by a guy in a truck, and nothing about that seemed to be changing anytime soon." (00:23)
- He was compelled to visit after hearing Mana CEO Bobby Healy speak knowledgeably on Ben Thompson’s interview.
2. Ireland: The Testing Ground
- Why Dublin?: Mana operates in Blanchardstown, a Dublin suburb, chosen for strategic reasons:
- Suburban delivery has historically high costs due to geography and operational inefficiencies.
- Mana’s drone bases are compact (converted shipping containers) and flexible for easy deployment. (08:45)
- Challenging Conditions: The Dublin climate, with swift shifts from sun to wind to rain, serves as a rigorous testbed for drone reliability.
3. Economics of Food Delivery — Why Suburbs Matter
- Problem with Human-Delivered Suburban Delivery:
- Orders are commonly heat-sensitive fast food or coffee—“These are very much impulse buys.”
- Traditional costs run "$9 to $11 per order" in suburbs due to longer routes and wait times. (06:10)
- Human drivers’ pay is often unsustainable after expenses ("nowhere near enough to pay car expenses and gas").
- Urban deliveries are more economical due to batching and smaller vehicles.
- Mana’s Edge: The company exploits suburban inefficiencies by offering fast, affordable drone delivery, targeted at light, time-sensitive items (coffee, fries).
4. How a Drone Delivery Order Works
- Human Elements:
- Human runner collects the food; loader puts it in the drone.
- “The former is especially time inefficient and probably needs to be automated in the future.” (14:00)
- Flight Operations:
- Customers pick drop points via app.
- System coordinates with local Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) to approve flight plans.
- Operator initiates flight via tablet, drone flies at ~55-60mph.
- Delivery Experience:
- Jon describes live: “The drone arrives in two to three minutes after it launches... sound is like a quiet burr, like as if someone is flying a strange propeller plane above.” (21:30)
- From hover, it “lowers the bag of coffee on a string… Five seconds later, the payload softly hits the ground.” (22:15)
- Safety Precautions:
- Drones won’t deliver if people are directly below; pilots can abort/drop drone via parachute. (28:00)
5. Customer Experience & Product Expansion
- Speed as Value Proposition:
- “Drone Delivery's customer experience is killer. It can give food to you fast enough that it's still good to eat.” (23:45)
- Hot or crisp food, groceries, small electronics—even books—can now be delivered “while the buzz to purchase is fresh.”
- Versatility: Mana has also delivered items like phone chargers and books (24:30).
6. Technical Simplicity and Reliability
- Mana’s Drone Design:
- Simple, reliable: “If you've seen before the drones that Google and Amazon are working on, then Mana's drones might seem exceedingly simple… This simplicity was a deliberate choice.”
- Emphasizes "the SpaceX School of Design: The best part is no part." (30:45)
- Triple-redundant CPUs, off-the-shelf parts mostly from Europe; safety parachute used only once in 200,000+ flights. (31:00)
- Pilots’ Role: One pilot can supervise up to 80 drones, intervening only if needed.
7. Regulatory & Safety Landscape
- European Framework:
- EU uses “risk assessment methodology” — drones are categorized in SAIL levels (1 to 6) by risk.
- Mana’s drones are at SAIL 3: “moderate risk,” operating mostly over sparse populations, multiple redundancies to reduce potential harm. (39:00)
- Practical Risk Mitigation:
- Pre-programmed flight paths, restricted drops (no dense crowds), quick deployment of parachutes.
- "The risk of a Mana drone falling out of the sky and hitting someone is very low—about 1 in 8 million flights." (40:10)
- US Regulatory Shift:
- The US had a permissions-based regime that stymied scale, requiring visual line of sight.
- New “Part 108” (Aug 2025) moves to EU-style waiver-based permissions, potentially enabling nationwide drone delivery for compliant firms. (56:00)
8. Community Concerns: Privacy, Noise, & Drone Safety
- Privacy: Drones' downward cameras are solely for drop-off; “it seems easy enough to catch them on it” if misused. (43:45)
- Noise: Passes as “a quiet burr,” measured at “53 dBA” (launch/landing) to “62 dBA” (drop phase), roughly the volume of normal conversation. Still, “it is a new and different kind of sound, so people will likely be more sensitive to it.” (45:00)
- Vandalism: Occasional threats and even incidents of people shooting at drones. “Shooting down a drone is a federal offense, same as trying to shoot down a regular plane.” (48:20)
9. Scaling and the Future
- Demand Generation:
- Mana partners with aggregators (Wolt, Deliveroo, DoorDash) for demand, rather than focusing on its own app.
- Exclusivity can drive up revenue per partner but reduce overall drone utilization.
- Economics:
- Mana’s deliveries are "about half that of human delivery right now," with aims to drop cost below $1 eventually. (37:45)
- Real Estate Constraint: Limited ideal drone base locations, especially in dense commercial areas.
- Global Expansion:
- Scaling up: 250,000 flights to-date, aiming for “2-3 million flights in 2026 and then 20 to 30 million flights the year after that.” (70:15)
- Eyes on Germany, UK, UAE, Mexico suburbs, but "the United States and its 70 to 90 million suburban households is the world's most prized market hands down." (72:05)
- Legal Hurdle: US foreign ownership (Cabotage) prevents non-American firms from domestic cargo delivery—Mana is lobbying for change or willing to manufacture in the US. (74:10)
- Market Race:
- US market could prompt gold rush: "Once the first American drone delivery player hits $10 million revenue... anticipate VC money funding a flood of new players." (77:30)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Skepticism:
"If Google and Amazon hadn't pulled it off yet, with all the resources available to them, then there must be something inherently wrong with the technology or business model." (01:07)
-
On Suburban Delivery:
"The focus on fast food in the suburbs is strategic and tied to the current bad economics of food delivery in the suburbs." (04:15)
-
On Drone Performance:
"The drone arrives in two to three minutes after it launches... You wouldn't really see it coming unless you know where it would be coming from." (21:40)
-
On Customer Experience:
"Drone Delivery's customer experience is killer. It can give food to you fast enough that it's still good to eat." (23:45)
-
On Technology Philosophy:
"This simplicity was a deliberate choice. However, simple means reliable, less things to go wrong, and Again, it's the SpaceX School of Design. The best part is no part." (30:55)
-
On Risk Management:
"Their small size and light weight means the collateral damage won't be as bad as something heavier. And as I mentioned earlier, the onboard parachute adds two turns of risk mitigation." (41:30)
-
On Regulation:
"So long as Cabotage applies, Mana can't pick up cargo for pay. But they seem fairly confident that the US Department of Transportation will eventually change." (74:15)
-
On Competition:
"Once the first American drone delivery player hits 10 million revenue in the United States, then we can anticipate VC money funding a flood of new players." (77:30)
Timestamps for Important Segments
- History of Drone Delivery & Early Skepticism: 00:02 – 03:00
- Mana’s Business Model in Ireland: 06:00 – 12:00
- On-Site Drone Operation Walkthrough: 19:30 – 26:00
- Technical Design & Safety: 30:00 – 35:00
- Regulatory Framework in EU & US: 37:00 – 44:00, 55:00 – 60:00
- Community Concerns (Privacy, Noise): 43:30 – 49:00
- Market Economics & Expansion Plans: 62:00 – 74:00
Conclusion
Jon Y leaves convinced that drone delivery, once a spectacle with little real-world success, is rapidly maturing into a practical, scalable business in Europe—and potentially soon in the US. Mana’s efficient, safety-focused approach, combined with regulatory breakthroughs, points toward a future where “drone delivery is finally starting its rise into the sky.”