Asianometry Podcast Summary

Episode: Singapore Tried to Grow More of Its Own Food...
Host: Jon Y
Date: November 13, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Jon Y explores Singapore's ambitious "30 by 30" food security policy, which aimed to produce 30% of the nation’s nutritional needs locally by 2030, despite severe land constraints. The episode traces the historical evolution of Singapore’s agriculture, dissects the "30 by 30" plan and its eventual failure, and examines the lessons learned. Jon combines historical detail, policy analysis, and industry insight to clarify why Singapore's high-tech agricultural push fell short and what comes next.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Historical Evolution of Food Production in Singapore

• 1965: Domestic Food Production Dominance

  • At independence, Singapore grew 60% of its food, with family farms occupying 22.5% of land.
  • Quote: "At the time of Singapore's independence in 1965, about 60% of the food eaten by its 1.6 million people was grown on the island." (01:04, A)

• Rapid Urbanization Reduces Farmland

  • Housing and industrial expansion quickly ate into agricultural land.
  • Example: 520 hectares/year went to housing in the 1960s.

• Environmental Challenges

  • Pig farms polluted water, prompting consolidation and eventual phase-out.
  • Policy shift in 1984: Singapore abandons food self-sufficiency in favor of imports.
  • Bitter impact on farmers: "'It was the government that encouraged us to set up commercial farms in Punggol. We responded, and what happens?'" (03:49, A)

2. Singapore’s Modern Food Security Model

• Diversified Imports and Strategic Stockpiling

  • Today, 90% of food is imported from over 170 countries.
  • Strategic reserves (e.g., rice importers must stockpile two months' supply).
  • Quote: "Singapore's amelioration of its food import dependency has been largely to diversify." (04:56, B)

• Coping with External Shocks

  • Example: Malaysia’s 2022 chicken export ban led to swift pivot to Indonesian chicken, safeguarding national culinary staples.

• Global Recognition but Lingering Risks

  • Economist Intelligence Unit (2019) ranked Singapore #1 for food security, but flagged risks due to resource scarcity and import dependency.

3. The "30 by 30" Initiative: Ambition and Implementation

• Genesis of the Policy

  • Announced in 2019, inspired by Singapore’s water independence success ("the water story").
  • Sought to locally produce 30% of nutritional needs by 2030 without expanding farmland dramatically.
  • Focused on high-tech solutions: vertical farms, urban aquaculture, circular economy integration.

• Initial Optimism and Scope

  • In 2019, local farms supplied only a fraction of demand: 13% leafy veg, 10% fish, 26% eggs.
  • Vertical farms heralded as a way to bridge the gap efficiently.
  • Quote: "Most people recognized that the goal was technically not impossible. It sort of depends on how you define 30% of nutritional needs ..." (10:22, A)

4. 2020s: Economic and Geopolitical Headwinds

• COVID-19 and Geopolitics Disrupt Progress

  • Pandemic delayed construction and labor, but also underscored supply-chain risks.
  • Russia’s Ukraine invasion (2022) drove up natural gas prices—the main energy source for energy-hungry vertical farms in Singapore.
  • Power costs soared: "That jumped to 28 cents in 2022 and eventually nearly touched 30 cents in 2024." (15:13, A)

• Economic Viability in Doubt

  • Vertical farming is highly energy intensive—estimates show up to 8-9x the power use of traditional farming.
  • Quote: "It's a data center, except you're churning out cabbages instead of ChatGPT tokens. Guess which one does better economically?" (16:44, A)

• Interest Rate Shocks and Funding Shortages

  • US Federal Reserve hikes dried up global venture capital—a 60% plunge in agritech investment.
  • SFA grants only covered setup, not long-term operating costs; unwillingness to subsidize operating expenses crippled viability.

5. Consumer and Structural Challenges

• Local Food Cost Disparity

  • Imported greens: ~$2/kg; local vertical farm greens: $3–4 per 200g—up to 7x pricier.
  • Quote: "Singaporeans might be willing to pay a little more for local food, but seven times more meh." (18:23, A)

• Public Engagement and Perceptions

  • Extensive marketing (SG Fresh Produce labels, farmers’ markets, campaigns) failed to overcome price barriers.
  • Alternative proteins (e.g., lab-grown meat) suffered from slow adoption and plant delays.
  • On eating bugs: "I'm not sure Singaporeans are yet ready to eat bugs. Not every day anyway." (19:30, A)

• Regulatory Burdens

  • New farms required interfaces with 10+ agencies and processes lasting up to 106 weeks.
  • Quote: "If you grab the SFA's thrilling tome Starting a Farm in Industry Guide version two ... it can take up to 106 weeks to get started." (21:57, B)

6. Collapse of the Initiative and Lessons Learned

• String of High-Profile Failures

  • Several flagship vertical farms and startups withdrew or folded between 2022-2025.
  • Local (e.g., VertiVeggies, IFFI) and international (Grohe) ventures just couldn't last.

• Global Struggles, Not Just Local

  • Not unique to Singapore: similar vertical farming failures in the US, UK, Germany.

• Policy Downshift in 2025

  • March: Official review of the "30 by 30" goal announced.
  • November: Policy replaced with more modest 2035 goals—20% in "fibers" (e.g., leafy veg, mushrooms) and 30% in "protein" (eggs, seafood).
  • Quote: "Work for the aforementioned Lim Chu Kang development project had caused local farms to shut production in 2023 in preparation for a move." (23:46, A)

• Ministerial Acknowledgment

  • Minister Grace Fu: "30x30 was aspirational from the very beginning, and she highlighted successes like hen egg self sufficiency clucking up to 30% and bean sprouts shooting up to 50%." (23:30, A)

• Jon Y’s Reflections

  • "30x30 is one of the Singapore government's bigger public failures in recent years, a rather rare one, but I'm glad that they tried. Food self sufficiency is a worthy goal, but lessons need to be learned on how to better encourage that..." (24:34, A)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Historical Shift
  • "Some argued that eliminating agriculture would actually boost GDP growth in island cities like Singapore, because land was such a growth limiter." (02:35, A)
• On Techno-optimism
  • "If their high yields scale, then Singapore can hit its 30% target on just 14.55 acres of land." (10:46, A)
• On Real-world Economic Constraints
  • "It's a data center, except you're churning out cabbages instead of ChatGPT tokens." (16:44, A)
• On Price Sensitivity and Consumer Buy-in
  • "Singaporeans might be willing to pay a little more for local food, but seven times more meh." (18:23, A)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction and background: 00:02–04:50
• Historical decline and diversification: 04:50–07:50
• Policy formation—30 by 30: 07:50–12:30
• Implementation, land use, and industry: 12:30–16:00
• Disruptions and energy costs: 16:00–17:30
• Funding, VC, and failed business models: 17:30–19:30
• Consumer acceptance and failed startups: 19:30–21:55
• Bureaucracy, targets lowered: 21:55–23:45
• Final thoughts and lessons: 23:45–24:45

Takeaways

• Singapore’s quest for food self-sufficiency collides with land scarcity, economic reality, and global shocks.
• Vertical farming and agritech, while promising, became unsustainable at current energy prices and required more structural support than offered.
• Future goals remain more measured and focused, with a recognition of what Singapore can realistically achieve.
• Jon Y concludes with both a critical and appreciative tone: acknowledging the “rare public failure” but highlighting the value of ambition and adaptation in policy.

[All times MM:SS, speaker attribution as per transcript.]