Podcast Summary: Asianometry – "What Happened to the Capacitors in 2002?"

Episode Air Date: March 16, 2025
Host: Jon Y
Theme:
A deep dive into the "capacitor plague" of the early 2000s that caused mass failures in electronics, exploring technical fundamentals, industry intrigue, alleged corporate espionage, and the lasting impact on the hardware ecosystem.

Main Theme & Purpose

Jon Y unpacks the mysterious global wave of failing capacitors—often leaking or exploding—found in countless PC motherboards and consumer electronics circa 2002. The episode dissects the technical reasons, the intrigue behind a possible stolen chemical formula, industry supply chain failures, and whether the infamous “Rubicon incident” was the true culprit—or just a tempting urban legend.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What are Capacitors and Why Do They Fail?

(00:02–08:45)

• Basic Functionality:

  • Capacitors (or "E caps" for electrolytic capacitors) store and rapidly discharge electrical energy.
  • They have two electrodes separated by a dielectric material.
  • In motherboards, they smooth DC power supply and decouple voltage fluctuations for stable chip operation.

• Construction & Weaknesses:

  • Aluminum E caps use thin separators and liquid/gel electrolytes that can degrade, especially under heat and humidity (natural lifespan: 10–20 years).
  • “Equivalent Series Resistance” (ESR) increases and capacitance declines as they age.
  • Catastrophic failures: bulging, leaks, explosions—sometimes with a “fishy smell.”

Memorable Quote:

“A big use case is filtering... When voltage peaks, the capacitors charge up. When voltage dips, the capacitor discharges to compensate.” — Jon Y (05:30)

2. The Outbreak: First Signs of the Plague

(08:45–15:20)

• 2002 Spike In Reports:
  • Mass incidents of bulging/exploding capacitors, with some repair shops replacing “over 10 a day” (Gary Headley, Utah).
  • Early voices online (Kerry Holzman) documented repeated failures in big-brand Taiwanese motherboards.
• Spread Beyond PCs:
  • TVs, VCRs, camcorders from major brands also affected.
  • By 2002, Taiwan made 22.5 billion E caps annually, 30% global share.

Memorable Quote:

“He said over 10 a day sometimes and they just keep on coming.” — Jon Y, quoting Gary Headley, repairman (11:00)

3. The Rubicon Espionage Story

(15:20–23:30)

• Industry Scandal:
  • Reports (Dennis Zoghbi, Passive Component Industry magazine) of a Japanese Rubicon Corp scientist defecting to Taiwanese Luminous Town Electric, bringing a stolen water-based electrolyte formula, which was later stolen and resold by others.
  • The formula lacked key additives, causing hydrogen gas buildup and ruptures.
• Controversy:
  • Luminous Town denied producing bad electrolyte but didn’t deny the Rubicon theft.
  • Multiple Taiwanese manufacturers implicated—up to 11 companies.
  • Official denials and blame, notably on unnamed suppliers and Lian Yang (who denied it vehemently).
  • Brands like IBM and Taiwan’s Abit acknowledged returns due to capacitor failures.

Quote:

“The problem was that the defecting staffers did not have the whole formula. There were missing additives that cause the ecaps to suffer hydrogen gas buildup until they rupture or break.” — Jon Y (20:30)

4. Technical Deep Dive: What Went Wrong Chemically?

(23:30–28:45)

• Findings:
  • A missing “depolarizer” additive led the electrolyte to become overly basic, weakening the aluminum oxide dielectric layer and causing dangerous gas formation inside.
  • Some capacitors were assembled incorrectly, or counterfeits used subpar materials.
• Industry Analysis:
  • The Rubicon story is plausible but may not be the whole explanation. Widespread failures across brands and regions suggest systemic issues.

Quote:

“Their report… indicated that the electrolytes of the bulging capacitors were missing a critical additive, generally called a depolarizer…” — Jon Y (24:15)

5. Broader Timeline & Ongoing Issues

(28:45–38:00)

• Not Just a 2002 Problem:

  • Reports of failures lingered into 2007 and beyond—affected Apple, HP, Dell (with Dell’s OptiPlex PCs suffering $300 million in replacements).
  • Sometimes, failures were traced to reputable manufacturers (Nichicon, Japan) but attributed to faulty Taiwanese subcontractors or missing additives.

• Compounding Factors:

  • Rapidly advancing CPUs in early 2000s (higher heat output) contributed to accelerated failure.
  • Industry lacked experience with new water-based, low-ESR electrolytes introduced in late 1990s.
  • Complex supply chains and the temptation to source from the cheapest supplier (sometimes counterfeiters).

Quote:

“The early 2000s were also a time of Intel and AMD aggressively pushing single core clock rates… these chips were consuming a lot of power and getting very very hot.” — Jon Y (35:30)

6. The Role of Counterfeits and Supply Chain Issues

(38:00–41:30)

• Counterfeits Proliferated:
  • Supply chain shocks (e.g., 2011 earthquake) led manufacturers to buy capacitors from unauthorized or fake suppliers.
  • Example: A counterfeit Nichicon ecap tested post-Fukushima disaster (2014 study) was found to lack enough ethylene glycol, lowering its boiling point and reliability.

Quote:

“The issue is that the capacitor is a counterfeit and it won't last anywhere near as long as the real thing.” — Jon Y (39:45)

7. Urban Legend vs. Industrial Reality

(41:30–end)

• Was Rubicon the Whole Story?
  • Jon is skeptical that “one defector” and one stolen formula can explain five years of global failures.
  • Suggests the “Rubicon story” is more of an industry myth, with actual causes being multifaceted: chemistry innovation, manufacturing challenges, heat stress, counterfeit infiltration.
• Today:
  • Aluminium ecaps still dominate for size and price, albeit with improved reliability.
  • The “little round can” on your circuit board can go back to being “unnoticed.”

Quote:

“I mostly reckon that the Rubicon incident story is just a fun urban legend riding along with the real technical issue being worked out over the years by the capacitor industry.” — Jon Y (42:20)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “A big use case is filtering... When voltage peaks, the capacitors charge up. When voltage dips, the capacitor discharges to compensate.” — Jon Y (05:30)
• “He said over 10 a day sometimes and they just keep on coming.” — Jon Y, quoting Gary Headley, repairman (11:00)
• “The problem was that the defecting staffers did not have the whole formula. There were missing additives that cause the ecaps to suffer hydrogen gas buildup until they rupture or break.” — Jon Y (20:30)
• “Their report… indicated that the electrolytes of the bulging capacitors were missing a critical additive, generally called a depolarizer…” — Jon Y (24:15)
• “The early 2000s were also a time of Intel and AMD aggressively pushing single core clock rates… these chips were consuming a lot of power and getting very very hot.” — Jon Y (35:30)
• “I mostly reckon that the Rubicon incident story is just a fun urban legend riding along with the real technical issue being worked out over the years by the capacitor industry.” — Jon Y (42:20)

Important Timestamps

• 00:02–08:45 — Capacitor basics, why they matter, how they fail
• 08:45–15:20 — The 2002 epidemic, on-the-ground reports, product impact
• 15:20–23:30 — Espionage allegations, the Rubicon formula theft story
• 23:30–28:45 — Technical autopsy: What failed inside the capacitors
• 28:45–38:00 — The mystery deepens: continued failures, industry struggles
• 38:00–41:30 — Counterfeits and supply chain complexity
• 41:30–end — Debunking simple narratives; reflections on myth vs. reality

In Summary

Jon Y’s episode masterfully explains the technical, historical, and industrial dimensions of the "capacitor plague"—a truly global electronics disaster. He demystifies the alleged Rubicon espionage story, carefully weighs all evidence, and concludes that the real cause was a mix of new chemistry, hotter CPUs, supply chain shortcuts, and yes, sometimes good old industrial intrigue. The “plague” now mostly contained, capacitors quietly hum on—taken for granted, as always.

For more in-depth explorations of Asian industrial sagas, subscribe to Asianometry and check out Jon Y’s newsletter.