Ask Haviv Anything — Episode 42: Why is Egypt so scared to open its border with Gaza?

Host: Haviv Rettig Gur
Guest: Mariam Wahba (Foundation for Defense of Democracies)
Date: September 12, 2025

Overview

In this thoughtful and timely episode, Haviv Rettig Gur sits down with Mariam Wahba, an Egyptian-born analyst and Coptic Christian, to unpack the evolving political, social, and strategic landscape of Egypt. Together, they examine the complex reasons behind Egypt’s rigid closure of its Gaza border—exploring historical context, the fragility of Egypt’s internal situation, the fate of the Coptic minority, the power dynamic between Islamists and the army, and the geostrategic balancing acts that keep Egypt’s regime teetering on a knife’s edge. The conversation offers deep insights into both Egypt’s domestic challenges and its cautious relationship with Israel, especially in light of the ongoing Gaza war.

1. Introduction & Personal Context (00:00–05:11)

• Haviv introduces the episode, highlighting Egypt’s key role in the Arab world, the significance of the recent Israeli-Egyptian energy deal, and growing alarm over Egyptian military movements near Israel and the Gaza border.
• He acknowledges the sponsorship honoring two Israeli diplomats murdered in Washington, D.C., and mentions listener questions about Egypt’s trajectory.
• Personal Story: Mariam Wahba shares a poignant tribute to her friend Yalon, one of the diplomats killed, reflecting on the intersections of personal loss and regional strife.
  • “He was a wonderful man, a diplomat par excellence. And I hope through any of my work, I can do something to honor his life and his memory.” (B, 03:45)

2. Mariam Wahba’s Background & the Copts of Egypt (05:11–08:57)

• Wahba describes her journey as an Egyptian Coptic Christian, immigrating to the U.S., studying Middle East history, and developing a deep interest in Israel and intra-regional dynamics.
• She gives a capsule history of the Coptic community—Egypt’s indigenous Christians—tracing their ancient origins through survival under Islamic rule, and modern status as a minority facing oscillating levels of tolerance and persecution:
  • “Coptic Christians are the indigenous Christian people of Egypt … They are quite literally descendants of the ancient Egyptians.” (B, 06:18)

3. The State of Egypt’s Coptic Community (08:57–14:10)

• Key Points:
  • Copts make up 10–15% of Egypt’s population—a significant number, yet vulnerable.
  • Under President Sisi, there’s been some improvement from the bloody period of Muslim Brotherhood rule, but profound problems persist:
    • A “culture of impunity” for those attacking Copts; few perpetrators face justice.
    • State “reconciliation sessions” replace proper prosecution, sowing anger and insecurity among minorities.
  • Sisi is viewed as a “cork” holding back deeper tides of Islamist radicalism.
• Quote:
  “If the minority communities, particularly the Coptic Christians, are doing well … it means the Egyptian society as a whole is doing pretty well. And when the Coptic community is not doing great … it means that the larger population’s also not doing well.” (B, 09:48)

4. Islamization, Social Strain & Copts’ Future (14:10–18:17)

• Data and anecdote illustrate increasing Islamist attitudes: broad support for Sharia law, large Islamist election majorities.
• Wahba shares a telling example from pop culture: a movie trilogy that once celebrated Muslim, Christian, and Jewish coexistence, but now erases non-Muslims even in art.
• Rising poverty and broken promises post–Arab Spring seem to fuel radicalization.
• Quote:
  “Slowly, we’re eroding away at some of the most fundamental elements of a pluralistic, culturally tolerant fabric of Egyptian society.” (B, 14:40)

5. Egypt’s Demographic and Economic Strains (18:17–27:14)

• Haviv highlights extreme poverty, staggering population growth, and the struggles they create: housing crises, high female genital mutilation rates, and looming risk of social collapse.
• Wahba recounts government efforts to curb population growth (“Wahad Kafaya” campaign), but notes their limited success.
• Discussion of Coptic diaspora, but underlines the deep-rootedness of Copts in Egypt:
  • “They are quite literally descendants of the ancient Egyptians and they know nothing else.” (B, 21:58)
• The Gulf and international stakeholders (e.g., UAE, KSA, U.S., Israel) have a vested interest in propping up Egypt; a collapse would destabilize the region.

6. The Military-Islamist Power Dynamic — Egypt’s 'Catch-22' (27:14–32:03)

• Egyptian civil-military tensions are mapped as a continuing struggle between a powerful, often regressive military (the regime) and grassroots Islamist movements (the Muslim Brotherhood).
• The military’s dominance in the economy is a double-edged sword: it quells Islamist uprisings, yet stifles economic reform and innovation—an unsolvable conundrum for outsiders and Egyptians alike.
• Quote:
  “The Egyptian military is a behemoth…owns a large portion of the Egyptian economy. Think things like hotels, supermarkets, pharmacies—all owned by the Egyptian military.” (B, 29:57)

7. Egypt, Gaza & the Border: Politics and Perceptions (32:03–40:07)

• Haviv describes Egypt’s saber-rattling post-October 7: troop buildups, fence construction, officials talking openly about potential war with Israel.
• Wahba argues much of the pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel rhetoric is performative, aimed at venting public anger and redirecting blame from the regime:
  • “It is a direct response to the pressure valves that need to go off in Cairo and other cities … Let people get off a little steam … no harm, no done, because nobody’s actually going to war.” (B, 36:56)
• Despite this, back-channel security and economic cooperation with Israel continues, exemplified by the landmark $35 billion energy deal.

8. The Landmark Israel-Egypt Energy Deal (40:07–42:00)

• Wahba describes the long-term, high-value energy deal as evidence that, despite loud anti-Israel state media, deep strategic, economic ties persist:
  • “If we were inching toward war … I wouldn’t exactly commit for the next at least 10 years to getting 60% of my energy from said country I would be threatening to go to war with.” (B, 41:09)

9. The Border — Why Egypt Closed Gaza Off So Tightly (44:09–51:24)

• The hosts probe Egypt’s dramatic pivot from early discussions about hosting Gaza’s civilians in Sinai (“temporarily”) to constructing a massive fence and total closure.
• Wahba outlines the many reasons for Cairo’s hardline posture:
  • Sinai is a sensitive region in the Egyptian psyche; Egyptians see its “return” as a national achievement.
  • Sinai is already unstable (ISIS, Bedouin militias); importing 2.1 million Gazans risks importing Hamas, jihadists, weaponry, and further chaos.
  • The Egyptian economy faces dire stress; the state cannot absorb a massive new refugee burden.
  • Allowing Gazan refugees is seen in Egypt and the Arab world as undermining the Palestinian national cause and giving Israel what it wants.
  • The closure is a “red line”—something the regime cannot sell to the public; even huge Gulf financial incentives have failed to change this.
• Key quote:
  “For those reasons … the movement of 2.1 million civilians into Gaza at the moment is a non-starter for Egypt and such a red line … I have it on good account that the Gulfies have offered to basically help pay off Egypt’s debt … but you just cannot sell it to the Egyptian public … Even though the Americans offered money …” (B, 50:13)

10. The Regional Stakes & The Future — Fragility or Resilience? (51:24–55:35)

• Haviv notes that Egypt’s security in Sinai is itself questionable, reliant on fractious Bedouin arrangements and lucrative smuggling.
• Wahba reflects on the fragility of the entire situation—if Egypt collapses, the repercussions across the Middle East would be dire.
• Going forward, Wahba advocates for a more demanding U.S./Israeli regional policy:
  • “Coddling begets coddling. When you treat a state with so much … really a lack of accountability … and continuing to see it as the cornerstone of peace ... it declines and becomes fragile … there has to be a real reckoning … a come to Jesus moment with how the regional players … engage with Egypt.” (B, 53:45)
• Haviv’s closing takeaway:
  • “Don’t be so afraid of the collapse that you don’t demand and pressure and ultimately obtain from Egypt the kinds of reforms that will actually set it on a new path. Because all we’re doing now is, at best, managing the decline. And managing the decline is not something the Middle East can afford for its own good.” (A, 55:07)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Sisi is a cork and trying to hold back what is basically this very, very deep conservative radical ... Sisi is a cork.” (A, 12:49)
• “The foundation of the Arab invasion of Israel … was always domestic politics. But Israel is this standing insult to Arab honor, to Muslim pride, that allows it to serve in the popular imagination as this kind of foil. And then it always ends in war.” (A, 42:13)
• “You have an Egyptian economy that is already struggling and you’re asking it to deal and absorb 2.1 million civilians in addition to the Syrian civilians ... to the millions of Sudanese civilians ...” (B, 49:30)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–05:11 — Introduction, sponsorship, and Mariam Wahba’s tribute to murdered diplomat Yalon
• 05:11–08:57 — Wahba’s background and the Coptic Christian community’s history
• 08:57–14:10 — Status and struggles of Egypt’s Copts under Sisi and before
• 14:10–18:17 — Islamization and the prospects for pluralism in Egypt
• 18:17–27:14 — Demographic/economic strains, possible scenarios for Coptic exodus
• 27:14–32:03 — The military’s stranglehold and Egypt’s structural “Catch-22”
• 32:03–40:07 — Rhetoric and realities of Egypt’s position vis-à-vis Israel and Gaza
• 40:07–42:00 — The $35 billion Israel-Egypt energy deal as a reality check
• 44:09–51:24 — The total closure of Gaza’s border with Egypt: causes and reasoning
• 51:24–55:35 — Broader regional dangers and policy implications; conclusions

Tone & Style

The conversation is frank, analytical, occasionally personal, and deeply informed by historical context—with Wahba pulling no punches about the systemic failings of the Egyptian state and society, yet stressing the practical limits and dangers of external pressure. Haviv’s questioning is probing, occasionally urgent, but always rooted in an appreciation for nuance and grounded realpolitik.

Summary Takeaway:
Egypt’s closure of its border with Gaza is not a simple act of cruelty or Israeli appeasement, but the product of profound economic, social, and security constraints, woven into the very fabric of contemporary Egypt. The regime walks a tightrope: stoking anti-Israel populism at home while quietly deepening cooperation with Israel, all to ensure its own survival and the fragile stability of the region. The long-term dangers—systemic decline, possible collapse, and the persistent disenfranchisement of minorities—demand a careful, if difficult, recalibration of international strategies toward Egypt.