Podcast Summary: Ask Haviv Anything – Episode 75

Power, Fear, and the Survival of the Iranian Regime

Host: Haviv Rettig Gur
Guest: Roya Hakakian (writer, poet, human rights advocate)
Date: January 2, 2026

Overview

This episode delves deep into the current crisis facing the Iranian regime amidst a wave of mass protests, economic collapse, and profound political shifts. Haviv Rettig Gur is joined by Roya Hakakian, an Iranian-born writer and human rights activist, to explore how Iran’s ruling elite is responding to growing unrest, what sets this moment apart from past upheavals, and how internal and external narratives have shaped the regime’s survival over decades. Key topics include the evolving demands of Iranian protesters, the collapse of revolutionary ideology into mafia-like rule, and discussions on whether genuine regime change is possible—and what that might look like.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Trigger: Economic Collapse & Expanding Protests

• Backdrop of Protest: The collapse of the Iranian currency and a surge in inflation have pushed small shopkeepers, pensioners, and, notably, the bazaar class to the streets, joined by diverse groups previously uninvolved at this scale.
  • "[The protests] began with small shopkeepers in the bazaar...but then we've seen elderly people come out to protest, people whose pensions are fixed income and the collapse of the currency is actually hurting them very much." (Haviv, [00:05])
• A Poorly Managed Resource Giant: Iran, rich in natural resources, finds itself among the poorest in management and citizen welfare.

2. Evolution of Protest Demands & Regime’s Eroding Legitimacy

• Major Shift from 2009 to Present: Whereas protesters in the Green Revolution of 2009 still sought reform within the system (“Where is my vote?”), today’s slogans are openly anti-regime:
  • "In 2025, they're saying, 'the dictator must go,' 'death to the Islamic Republic.' ...This is a huge transition." (Roya, [04:30])
• Regime’s New Tactics – Fear & Restraint:
  • Unlike past harsh crackdowns, the regime’s leadership—including President Pezeshkian—is calling for dialogue and acknowledging public grievances, signaling unprecedented fear:
  • "President Pezeshkian has literally said, I want a dialogue with the protesters. I am with you. You are saying things that are true about inflation and the collapse of the currency and all the terrible troubles." (Haviv, [05:32])

3. Internal Regime Breakdown: Constituency, Corruption & Narrative Control

• Regime’s Base Dwindling: Historically, about 20% of the population was solidly pro-regime; even that core is now wavering post the humiliating “12 Day War” where regime leadership vanished from public view.
  • "The regime's own constituency has lost faith in its own leadership." (Roya, [06:30])
• Mafia over Ideology:
  • "The clerical disguise is only a disguise...there is no ideological belief system behind the regime anymore, that it's just a mafia." (Roya, [26:28])
• Manufactured Victim Narrative for Survival:
  • The regime excels at depicting itself as a victim of foreign conspiracies—especially in Western academic circles—even after five decades in power.
  • "There's one thing they've succeeded at on a major level and that's controlling the global anti domestic narrative." (Roya, [17:56])

4. Unenforced Law and De Facto Social Change

• Hijab and Control Weakening:
  • The regime has stopped enforcing hijab and some other Islamic strictures out of fear of new uprisings.
  • "Many girls and women are now walking without hijabs...Some women are even doubling down on dissent, swapping their headscarves for helmets." (Haviv quoting Roya, [25:13])
  • "But the fact that they are incapable of exercising their own power because they are afraid of the backlash means that they're not so in power." (Roya, [26:28])

5. The Iran-Israel Dynamic—Origins & Present

• Anti-Israel Rhetoric as Unifying Tool:
  • Khomeini’s success came only when he shifted from religious sermons to anti-imperialist and anti-Zionist rhetoric, uniting disparate factions under one cause:
  • "After that he was off to the races. ...[Iranians] could consolidate behind him over his anti-imperialist, imperialist and anti-Zionist message." (Roya, [29:21])
  • Despite this, recent years show a marked decline in anti-Semitism and anti-Israeli sentiment among ordinary Iranians.
    • "For the past 20 years, Iran has been lowest on anti Israel and anti Semitic sentiments by far...because the regime that was most avidly against Israel proved to be their number one enemy." (Roya, [38:50])

6. Structural Collapse: Economy, Infrastructure & State

• Corruption as the System:
  • The IRGC controls vast swathes of Iran’s economy, with corruption and patronage networks determining access to critical goods and services, including preferential currency exchange rates.
  • "Almost nothing in Iran isn't corrupt. ...That's not corruption, it's the system." (Haviv, [34:23])
• Human Flight:
  • Elite and ordinary citizens are leaving in unprecedented numbers; those who stay carve out alternative, creative social worlds to survive.

7. Does the Regime Survive? Prospects for Change

• Closest Yet to Falling:

  • "I think this is the closest Iran has come to falling in the past 48 years." (Roya, [42:01])

• Internal Fractures:

  • Leaked identities of regime security perpetrators suggest cracks within the security establishment and loss of internal trust:
  • "Within 24 hours, the identity of those who beat him had been revealed. ...somebody from inside the security system...must have leaked the identity." (Roya, [45:19])
  • "Inside the system...is cracking, is turning on itself." (Haviv, [46:34])

• Unclear Transition Path:

  • No clear opposition center; regime’s main talent has been preventing the emergence of rival power bases.
  • Exiled opposition unlikely to play a major role; at best, incremental transition from within will avert chaos, not guarantee democracy.

8. Advice for Israel and the West

• Caution Against External Interference:
  • "The last thing that Israel should do is to try to get in the way of the unfolding events, which, of course, missiles and bombs can do." (Roya, [38:50])
  • Ordinary Iranians’ warming to Israel is a result of regime failures, not external Israeli or Western actions.
  • "Iranians don't need Israeli leaders to tell them when to show up on the streets...just keep your mouth shut." (Roya, [40:00])

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• "This is a regime reacting very gently because it is really and truly scared. Because their own story of why it is that they've made the people suffer has been undermined by recent events."
  – Haviv ([05:32])

• "If you took the turbans and the robes off, the Westerners would see them for who they are...They are mismanaging the country. They are beating women."
  – Roya ([26:28])

• "They're not out on the streets because they want these luxuries. They're out on the streets because they need to survive and survival is what's driving people."
  – Roya ([42:01])

• "The fact that Iran is in this unique position [of lowest anti-Semitism in MENA] is a huge achievement. Rather than lose it...Israel and the rest of us need to build on it."
  – Roya ([39:00])

Notable Moments

• [04:30] – Roya highlights the transformation of protest rhetoric from reformist (“Where is my vote?”) to openly anti-regime (“Death to the Islamic Republic”).
• [06:30] – She diagnoses the dissipation of the regime’s core supporters after failures in military and foreign policy.
• [25:13] – Haviv and Roya discuss the erosion of enforced religious norms, particularly regarding the hijab, as a symptom of the regime's fear.
• [39:00] – Roya’s perspective on how state anti-Israel propaganda has backfired, leading to a unique opening for future diplomatic relations.

Conclusion

This episode presents a nuanced, well-sourced look at the weakening foundations of the Iranian regime—a state “living off narratives” that no longer convince its own people, split by internal mistrust, and surviving less on ideology than on mafia-like patronage. Roya Hakakian brings personal experience and scholarly rigor, warning against simplistic hopes for quick regime collapse or democratic revolution, but marking this as the regime’s most vulnerable moment yet. Listeners are left with a rich understanding of Iran’s internal dynamics, shifting social realities, and the stinging irony of state propaganda unintentionally fostering pro-Israeli sentiment among Iranians.