Ask Haviv Anything – Episode 79: Breaking Iran's Machinery of Oppression

Host: Haviv Rettig Gur
Date: January 14, 2026

Overview

This episode centers on Iran’s ongoing, intense nationwide protests and the ability of the Islamic Republic’s regime to survive—even thrive—amid massive popular dissent and catastrophe. Haviv Rettig Gur presents an in-depth, personal, and analytic argument: Iran’s regime, built on a revolutionary and Islamist ideological foundation, possesses unique “durability multipliers” that make conventional strategies for regime change ineffective. The episode explores what really underpins the regime’s staying power, why so many outsiders misunderstand it, and what realistic strategies might help break the machinery of oppression without endangering the people seeking freedom.

Main Themes & Purpose

• Examine why Iran's Islamic Republic regime seems indestructible, despite immense popular opposition.
• Explore the ideological, psychological, and practical mechanisms that allow the regime to endure and repress.
• Contrast Western expectations and strategies with Iran's unique political machinery.
• Present actionable, effective strategies for supporting meaningful change and freedom for Iranians.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Courage and Cost: The Reality of Iran’s Protesters

[00:05–08:30]

• Haviv opens with a moving depiction of Iran in chaos: “Iran is on fire. The regime is shooting protesters, it's cutting the Internet, it's daring the world to do something.”
• He underscores Western and Israeli attempts to frame the regime as being near collapse, but cautions: "Maybe this regime actually has advantages that…if we don't understand, we won't be helpful to ordinary Iranians."
• Personal perspective: “I'm watching this as an Israeli, as a Jew, as somebody who lives in this region…Just because they're my enemies doesn't mean they're not complicated, three-dimensional human beings with stories that they're embedded in..." [02:40]
• The bravery of Iranian protesters, who march knowing they may face death, is called "one of the most morally clarifying things in the region right now."

2. A Regime Built for Survival, Not Governance

[08:30–16:10]

• The regime's legitimacy does not depend on prosperity or success, but on ideological defiance and sacred struggle.
• “It's built like a bunker…The one success story in 47 years of this regime is this unbelievably competent and capable domestic architecture of repression: the Basij, the intelligence networks, the police.”
• Despite failure in governance, economy, or achieving grand external aims, the regime thrives in "domestic war"—its only real success.

3. The Ideological Core: Zero-Sum Legitimacy and Martyrdom

[16:10–22:30]

• The regime's basis is “zero sum” legitimacy: not “they’re crazy,” but that collapse can be spun as sacred sacrifice and defiance.
• “The regime's legitimacy isn't primarily based on competence or prosperity or what it delivers for its people. It's based on defiance. It's based on sacred struggle.”
• Catastrophic policy failures, rather than undermining the regime, can increase its legitimacy among its core supporters.
• Sacred purpose and the ethos of martyrdom transform mass suffering and state violence into “evidence of righteousness, not as a policy failure.” [20:45]

4. The ‘Suicidal Capacity’ of Revolutionary Regimes

[22:30–29:30]

• Haviv introduces the “suicidal capacity” characteristic: a systemic willingness to oversee the destruction of the state itself in defense of its ideology.
• Quote: "It's this ability…to absorb enormous harm, extreme harm. To absorb extreme harm throughout society, the society they govern while surviving, to remain steadfast in the face of that extreme harm." [24:55]
• The state’s tolerance for catastrophe outstrips what protesters—or most foreign governments—could ever match, creating an “asymmetry of pain tolerance.”

5. Hostage Logic and Political Collateral

[29:30–33:00]

• The regime’s survival strategy weaponizes its own population, turning the Iranian people into “political collateral.”
• "If you have a higher tolerance for civilian suffering…then the other side's coercive tools become much less effective."
• External military or economic pressure only increases the regime’s ability to justify and escalate internal repression.

6. Comparison to Hamas and Gaza:

[33:00–38:00]

• The same dynamic is seen in Gaza with Hamas—organizational and ideological survival prioritized over the welfare of the population.
• “Liberal states try to win while keeping their society intact. Revolutionary Islamist movements can survive by making the intactness of their society negotiable.”

Practical Levers: What Can Actually Undermine the Regime?

Introduction to Levers [38:00]:
"You don't beat a catastrophe tolerant regime by increasing catastrophe. You beat it essentially by changing the internal incentives of the men who have the guns."

1. Precision Sanctions on the Coercive Core

[39:00–44:00]

• Target regime functionaries (IRGC, police, intelligence), not the Iranian people.
• "The message has to be: ‘We know who you are. Your name is on a list. We know about your family, we know where everybody is. If you shoot protesters, your kids can't get into Canada, your money can't go to Dubai, you can't vacation in Europe, you can't hold money offshore. You become radioactive, you become known.’" [41:20]
• Focus on assets, travel, and familial ties in the West for mid-level and senior officials to create hesitation within the security apparatus.

2. Break the Regime’s Coordination Monopoly

[44:00–47:15]

• Protests fail not because of lack of dissatisfaction, but because the regime isolates and atomizes society.
• Prioritize durable connectivity: VPNs, mirror networks, satellite connections, security training.
• “Don't give speeches, don't start a bunch of hashtags on X. Actual durable capabilities…connectivity.”

3. Disrupt the Regime’s Oil Evasion and Repression Cash Flow

[47:15–51:30]

• Attack the regime’s oil money laundering infrastructure, not the Iranian economy at large.
• "The United States treasury can genuinely change the reality of the Iranian regime in real time, not by changing any law, but just by upgrading and leveling up the level of enforcement." [49:35]
• Coordinate with allies to close loopholes in oil export and financial networks funding repression.

4. Provide Credible Off-Ramps for Security Officials

[51:31–54:20]

• Divide the apparatus: create genuine incentives for defection, asylum pathways, and quiet deals for those willing to split.
• Target messaging: “You will be targeted individually”; to conscripts and potential defectors: "You have another option."
• Historical note: Regime fractures—not street victory—are the real tipping point.

5. Do Not Give the Regime the Foreign War It Craves

[54:21–57:50]

• Avoid external military action, which could unify the nation behind the regime.
• "A regime willing to murder everyone on its way down has to be delegitimized. It cannot be bombed out of existence. You will damage some facility. You will also hand the regime the story they need." [56:30]

What Should Western Leaders Do? (With A Nod to Trump)

[57:51–59:28]

• Enforce against oil evasion networks, not broad Iran sanctions.
• Prioritize targeted, personalized pressure on repression chain.
• Make supporting connectivity for protesters the top technical assistance goal.
• "If Trump wants to help protesters, this is where the results will happen. In the ability of millions of people to coordinate, to document, to persist in the protests no matter what the regime does." [58:43]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the regime’s philosophy:
  “The worse you do, the greater the ruin, the greater the sacrifice, the more your legitimacy is validated. You defy an enemy order. That is why you exist.” [18:22]

• On Western misunderstanding:
  “Bottom line, the Iranian regime's durability is misunderstood, mainly because analysts assume that rulers optimize their rule, their decision making, for national well-being, for state preservation. Revolutionary Islamist regimes do not. They optimize for movement survival.” [37:30]

• Comparing with liberal states:
  “Liberal states try to win while keeping their society intact. Revolutionary Islamist movements can survive by making the intactness of their society negotiable.” [36:20]

• On the challenge for outsiders:
  “You can't out threaten a regime that's willing to burn the house down. Saber rattling by Donald Trump isn't going to cut it. You have to beat it by breaking the tools of the arsonists who are planning the burning down of the house.” [59:00]

Conclusion and Call to Action

[59:29–End]

• The core question for the future is not whether the regime is evil, but "whether the regime is breakable and what it actually takes to break it."
• Real change comes from understanding and undermining the system’s inner machinery, not by "doing more of what doesn't work."
• Final note: “It's time to get that conversation.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Introduction & framing: 00:05–08:30
• Regime durability and ideological analysis: 08:30–29:30
• Comparisons to Hamas/Gaza: 33:00–38:00
• Practical levers & Western strategies: 38:00–57:50
• Advice for Western leaders (esp. Trump): 57:51–59:28
• Conclusion: 59:29–End

Overall Tone

Haviv adopts a sober, clear-eyed, and compassionate tone, blending academic analysis with deep personal engagement and empathy for the Iranian people. He rejects easy slogans and emphasizes nuanced, practical, and moral approaches to a highly complex, heartbreaking, and urgent challenge.