Podcast Summary:

Podcast: Ask Haviv Anything
Episode: 86 – Alliances and Rivalries in a New Middle East, with Dan Schueftan
Date: February 2, 2026
Host: Haviv Rettig Gur
Guest: Dan Schueftan, preeminent Israeli security analyst

Episode Overview

This episode explores the sudden shifts and rising complexities in Middle Eastern alliances, focusing on Saudi Arabia’s unexpected strategic pivot, Turkish power and ideology, the implications for Israel’s security doctrine, and the broader reordering of regional and global alignments. Scholar Dan Schueftan brings on-the-ground insights, historical context, and a sophisticated analysis of the motivations and vulnerabilities of regional players, providing a nuanced and at times provocative assessment of Israel's strategic situation today.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Pivot

• Saudi-Arab Emirate Rift & Airstrike in Yemen
  • [03:00] The Saudis surprised observers by turning against traditional allies, notably with an airstrike on what they claim was an Emirati arms shipment in Yemen.
  • The Saudi pivot is characterized not as a permanent move to the "bad side" (i.e., Muslim Brotherhood/Iranian axis), but as a bid to maximize survivability among shifting threats.
• Balancing Weakness and Vulnerability
  • [03:41] Schueftan: "The Saudis are trying to work with their enemies and their friends and to find a way to survive in this very complex region."
  • Saudis fear both Iran’s destructive power and what may replace the regime, while also lacking Israel’s capability for self-defense.
• Syria as a Microcosm of Regional Struggles
  • [04:50] Recent Saudi support for the Assad regime (referred to as "Shala") with Pakistani, Turkish, and Qatari partners could be problematic for Israeli and wider stability.
  • Saudi involvement in strengthening Syria as a Turkish proxy could imperil Israel’s strategic balance.

2. Turkey’s Ascendant Role

• Turkish Influence in Syria and Beyond
  • [12:38] Gur: "Turkey has Syria basically under its thumb. It's the main provider of electricity... Elements of the current Syrian national army... were actually trained by Turkey."
  • Turkey poses threats not only in Syria but in the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, Sudan, Yemen, and Somalia.
• Turkey’s Naval Superiority and NATO Status
  • Turkey’s navy and military size vastly outclass Israel’s in raw numbers; however, Schueftan contends that this does not translate into an imminent military threat.
• Ideological Alignment
  • Turkey is deeply aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, Qatar, and Hamas, and supports anti-Israeli elements throughout the region.

3. Israel’s Changing Alliance and Security Calculus

• Fracturing of the “Moderate Bloc”
  • [08:40] The anticipated coalition of moderate Arab states, Israel, and the US has fractured, with the Saudis now playing between camps.
• Jordan’s Desperation
  • Jordan, facing radicalization and instability in Syria, has re-instituted universal conscription for the first time in 30 years and outlawed the Muslim Brotherhood, out of existential fear.

4. Military Threat Perceptions

• Turkey as a Military Threat: Reality Check
  • [17:38] Schueftan: "I don't think that Turkey will go to war with Israel... Israel is much better [in 21st-century warfare] than anybody else."
  • He downplays the likelihood of direct Turkish-Israeli war, noting geopolitical barriers and the deterrence posed by Israeli capabilities ("Some people even say that Israel is a nuclear power. So think about a situation...").
• Indirect Threats
  • The main Turkish dangers are indirect: destabilizing Israel via proxies in Syria, Gaza, Jerusalem, and controlling regional energy dynamics.
  • [19:26] “From every angle you can possibly imagine, Turkey is an enemy with the exception of direct military confrontation of the two armies.”

5. Israel’s Historical Resilience and Growing Strength

• A Brief History of Israeli Strategic Vulnerability
  • [21:57] Schueftan provides an extensive historical survey, showing how Zionism and Israel have faced existential crises far more challenging than today's difficulties.
  • [24:10] “We established a Jewish state without the three things that states usually [have]: a people, a land and a language... Everybody else failed in it. We succeeded.”
• Demographic Success
  • [28:20] Intermarriage between Jews of different communities (Ashkenazi and Sephardic) is now the norm, symbolizing social integration and strength.
• Defeating United Arab Coalitions
  • [29:40] “Compared to all the Arab world standing up against Israel, what we had in 23 were only the remnants of the Arab world that were radical and Iran. And in this war Israel defeated Iran.”
• External Recognition
  • [34:45] Schueftan: “Maybe people like us less, but they respect us much more.”

6. Israeli Strategic Mistakes—Past and Present

• Cycles of Forgetting Hard-Learned Lessons
  • [41:40] Schueftan: “We learn it again and again in our history and then we forget it. There is a cycle of 20 years where we forget our lessons.”
• Dangers of Incorporating the West Bank
  • Incorporating Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) into Israel would create an existential internal threat, risking civil war and undermining Israel’s success.
• Domestic Policy Challenges
  • Allowing the non-productive ultra-Orthodox sector to grow unchecked is described as “a danger to the existence, to the continued existence and success of, of the Jewish people.”
• Problems with Oslo and the Palestinian ‘Partner’
  • No true Palestinian partner exists for peace; expecting one is a “stupidity of the Jews.”

7. The Arab World’s Struggle for Modernization

• Democracy vs. Tolerance and Responsibility First
  • [49:41] “Do I want, in the final analysis, to be surrounded by democratic, liberal countries? Yes. Is it available in the foreseeable future? No. Is the most positive thing that can happened to the Arabs? Responsibility, tolerance, and finally democracy.”
  • Responsibility and pluralism among elites (e.g., UAE) are better immediate goals for regional stability than democracy, given radical public opinion.

8. America-Israel Relations: Resilience and Mutual Interests

• American “Abandonment” Overblown
  • [53:57] "Look at the whole history of Israel and the United States and you will find that with minor ups and downs, the overall trajectory is a deepening and strengthening of American Israeli relations."
  • Both share the same enemies (radicals); the question is if Americans are "dumb enough not to recognize it."
• Historical Parallels
  • Schueftan provides historical case studies (e.g., Suez Crisis, 1956) illustrating good and bad U.S. policies in the region and Israel's capacity to survive despite unfavorable U.S. administrations.

9. Recommendations for Israel Moving Forward

• Pragmatic Caution in Syria
  • [64:47] “Our policy in Syria should be like porcupines making love—with extreme caution.”
  • Avoid direct conflict with Turkey; use indirect actions to prevent Turkish consolidation in southern Syria; coordinate closely with the U.S.
• Deepening Regional “Mini-alliances”
  • Reinforce cooperation with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt—especially on energy.
• Blocking Dangerous Routes
  • In U.S. diplomacy, argue that energy and goods routes from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean should preference Israel and the Gulf over Turkey.
• Saudi-Israeli Relations: Cooperation > Normalization
  • [69:07] “I never expected much from normalization with Saudi Arabia. What I wanted is cooperation.”
  • Focus on joint security, particularly air defense.
• Lobby U.S. on Arms Sales
  • Lobby against U.S. arms sales (like F-35s) to both Turkey and now also Saudi Arabia as the Saudi-Turkish-Qatari axis strengthens in Syria.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Nature of Middle East Alliances

  "When you're afraid of somebody, at the same time, you will try to appease him, to fight him... People will try to play both sides."
  — Dan Schueftan [03:41]

• On Turkey’s Real Threat

  "Wherever you look, [the Turks] are enemies because they are basically... supportive of the Muslim Brothers."
  — Dan Schueftan [07:55]

• On Israel’s Unique Military Experience

  "The only military that is battle tested in wars of the 21st century is the Israeli military."
  — Dan Schueftan [18:05]

• On Historical Israeli Resilience

  "Compared to that, again, what we have now is a piece of cake."
  — Dan Schueftan [29:22]

• On Israeli Self-Criticism

  "The only people in the world who don't know how strong Israel is are Israelis. That's the best kept secret in Israel."
  — Dan Schueftan [39:25]

• Advice on Risk Management

  "There are two options. So risk war when they're not ready by destroying them so that they will not be ready. And don't wait for them to be ready."
  — Dan Schueftan [43:25]

• On Democracy in the Arab World

  "Do I want, in the final analysis, to be surrounded by democratic, liberal countries? Yes. Is it available in the foreseeable future? No."
  — Dan Schueftan [49:41]

• On U.S.-Israel Ties

  "The United States and Israel have exactly the same enemies in the Middle East. The question is only are the Americans dumb enough not to recognize it or smart enough to recognize it?"
  — Dan Schueftan [54:21]

• On Israel’s Syria Policy

  “Our policy in Syria should be like porcupines making love with extreme caution.”
  — Dan Schueftan [64:47]

Important Segment Timestamps

• [03:00] — Breakdown of the Saudi strategic pivot and regional realignment
• [07:55] — The roles of Turkey, Qatar & Muslim Brotherhood in the new regional order
• [12:38] — Turkey's military build-up and power over Syria
• [15:17] — Discussion of regional dangers and Israel’s alliance weakness
• [17:38] — Turkey’s military threat realistically assessed
• [21:57] — Schueftan’s historical case for Israel’s enduring strength
• [41:40] — Israeli strategic mistakes and “cycles of forgetting”
• [53:57] — U.S.–Israel relations: history and future
• [64:47] — Prescriptions for Israeli policy in Syria and managing Turkish threats
• [69:07] — Saudis: focus on pragmatic security cooperation, not normalization

Conclusion

This episode offers a candid, historically anchored, and sometimes counterintuitive perspective on shifting alliances, rising threats, and enduring strengths in the Middle East. While several danger signals flash—especially Turkey’s ambition and Saudi vulnerability—Schueftan repeatedly returns to the thesis that Israel’s military, economic, and societal resilience today dwarfs even its own recognition. Policy wisdom, for him, is clear-eyed realism, pragmatic alliances, and the avoidance of self-destructive dreams.