Podcast Summary: "Ask Haviv Anything" Episode 89

Who benefits from continuing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Host: Haviv Rettig Gur
Date: February 12, 2026

Overview of the Episode

In this rich and probing episode, host Haviv Rettig Gur addresses a listener-submitted question: “Who benefits from the continuation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?” Haviv meticulously examines the layers of stakeholders—foreign and domestic, ideological and pragmatic—who gain politically, ideologically, or emotionally from the unresolved state of the conflict. The analysis covers not only state and non-state actors but also sheds light on the perceptions and fears of ordinary people on both sides.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Foreign Powers and Their Stakes

(00:06–06:30)

• Iran’s Leverage:

  • Iran uses the conflict to bolster its claim to moral and religious leadership in the Muslim world, positioning itself as the Shia vanguard against alleged Sunni failures.
  • “Iran uses the Palestinian question as a power play in the Arab world to make a case that the Shia are a vanguard of justice and truth and ultimately power, where the Sunni have failed…” (00:26)

• Turkey’s Ambitions:

  • Turkey is ideologically aligned with Hamas and supports activist networks, funding organizations in East Jerusalem and hosting Hamas leaders.
  • Turkey employs the Palestinian cause as a wedge to advance its primacy in the Muslim Middle East.
  • “Turkey is also using the Palestinian question to make a bid for primacy in the Muslim societies of the Middle East.” (01:11)

• China’s Geostrategic Interests:

  • China deepens its relationship with Iran (an adversary of the US), using the conflict to challenge American influence in the region.
  • “China wants to build out networks and alliances that push back against American power.” (01:28)

• Western Progressive Movements:

  • A significant bloc of Western elites and activists view the conflict as a “morality play,” projecting their anti-imperial, anti-colonialist worldview onto events in Israel-Palestine.
  • “That really describes a surprisingly large swath of Western elites who look at this place as a kind of stage on which the great morality play… is playing out.” (01:44)

2. The Influence Gap: Foreign Actors and Local Divisions

(06:30–11:15)

• Palestinian Susceptibility to Foreign Influence:

  • The Palestinian political scene is deeply fractured along lines shaped by external patronage:
    • Hamas (supported by Turkey, Qatar, Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood) vs.
    • Fatah (backed by the conservative Sunni axis: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egyptian military).
  • “Palestinians are deeply divided exactly along the fracture lines in which the Arab Middle east generally is divided. And that's a sign of the enormous influence that foreign actors can have.” (08:11)

• Israel’s Relative Independence:

  • In contrast, Israeli politics are less exposed to foreign influence due to the country’s cohesion and greater wealth and power.
  • “It's harder to influence Israeli politics.” (09:15)

3. Extremists Who Benefit: Zero-Sum Worldviews

(11:15–21:00)

• Hamas & Israeli Far-Right: Parallel Zero-Sum Framing

  • Both Hamas and Israeli far-right figures (e.g., Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich) maintain that only total victory is acceptable and compromise is impossible.
  • “They share the idea that it's a zero sum conflict, that there can be no compromise…” (12:00)

• Caveats and Critical Distinctions:

  • Haviv is emphatic about the moral and practical gulf between Hamas and Israeli extremists:
    • Israeli right-wingers operate within a democratic system that restrains extreme actions.
    • Hamas embraces and glorifies total war and even self-destruction as religious duty; Israeli extremists do not.
  • “Smartich and Benvir are far less capable of atrocity than Hamas... Morally, there's a chasm here.” (14:35-15:45)

4. Widespread Mistrust: The Zero-Sum Trap of Ordinary People

(21:00–33:00)

• Perceptions on Both Sides

  • Both Israel and Palestinian societies overwhelmingly believe the other seeks their eradication.
    • “The overwhelming answer of both sides… was that the other side wants to eliminate me. That is something like 90%, 89%, I think, of Israelis, 90% of Palestinians.” (22:42)
  • This mutual suspicion breeds a default to conflict readiness.

• Impact on Everyday Citizens

  • Ordinary people, not just militants or ideologues, become invested in the perpetuation of the conflict as self-defense.
  • “They feel the conflict is a tragedy, but they feel that to be strong and armed and willing and ready to fight is the least tragic outcome available to them.” (29:05)

5. Religious and Ideological Stakes: The Redemption Narrative

(33:00–End)

• Religious Zionism and Islamist Narratives:
  • Both extremes see the conflict as embedded in a spiritual or historical redemption arc:
    • For Hamas, defeat means the setback of Islam and Muslim dignity.
    • For some religious Zionists, total Israeli sovereignty heralds redemption.
  • “Everybody who thinks God's going to win it for them and so push it to the brink… If the Palestinians don't win this, Hamas ideologues say Islam itself is set back. The redemption of the world is set back…. For the small, to each edge of the religious Zionist movement… the beginning of the redemption of the world.” (34:02 – 34:37)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Foreign Manipulation:

  • “All of these different forces from outside have a deep interest in what happens and… benefit not from the conflict ending, but from the conflict continuing…” (01:57)

• On the Structure of Division:

  • “Palestinians are much more susceptible, much more influenced by whether it's a progressive Westerner or it's the Muslim Brotherhood axis or the Iranians…” (07:00)

• On Zero-Sum Attitudes:

  • “What we're looking at when we look at people who talk in zero sum ways about the conflict... is a response on both sides to the perception that that's what the other side wants.” (19:22)

• On the Tragedy for Ordinary People:

  • “I don't want to call it a benefit. They feel the conflict is a tragedy, but they feel that to be strong and armed and willing and ready to fight is the least tragic outcome available to them.” (29:05)

• Final Reflection:

  • “And then you have the ordinary people, the ordinary people who just don't see a way out. And if you don't see a way out, you fight.” (34:41)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:06 – Framing the Question: Who benefits?
• 00:26–02:30 – Foreign Players: Iran, Turkey, China, and Western progressives
• 07:00–11:00 – Internal Palestinian Faultlines & Foreign Influence
• 12:00–16:00 – Zero-Sum Actors: Hamas and Israeli far-right
• 22:42 – Public Perception Polls: Both sides believe the other wants their elimination
• 29:05–33:00 – The tragic readiness of ordinary people
• 33:00–34:41 – Religious/ideological narratives and closing synthesis

Conclusion

Haviv Rettig Gur’s analysis offers a nuanced, multidimensional answer:

• Foreign governments, regional rivals, ideological movements, and extremes on both sides all draw power, legitimacy, and sometimes resources from the enduring conflict.
• The most insidious ‘benefit’ accrues to those—whether radicals or civilians—who see no alternative but to brace for endless struggle, fostering a self-perpetuating cycle of mistrust, militarization, and fear.
• “If you don't see a way out, you fight.” (34:41)

This episode stands out for its clarity in distinguishing between cynical statecraft, ideological extremism, and the tragic calculus of normal people caught in the crossfire.