Ask Haviv Anything — Episode 91: Is the Iran War About China?

A Conversation with Melissa Chen

Date: February 18, 2026
Guest: Melissa Chen, Managing Director at Strategy Risks

Episode Overview

This episode explores the underestimated role of China in Middle Eastern geopolitics, especially as it pertains to Iran’s resilience and regional aggression — and the implications for Israel, the US, and global antisemitism. Host Haviv Rettig Gur interviews Melissa Chen, an expert in Chinese affairs and geopolitics, to unravel how China's global ambitions have transformed Iran into a strategic partner, nourished regional instability, and fueled the rise of antisemitism, especially through advanced information warfare on Western platforms.

Introduction & Guest Background

[03:03]

• Melissa Chen is introduced as a journalist specializing in China and geopolitics, raised in Singapore, educated in the US, and now based in London.
• She offers a unique perspective, tracing historic Israeli-Singaporean ties:

  “My father was the deputy head of Military intelligence in Singapore… he embedded and trained closely with the IDF and Mossad at the time… The Israeli Defense Forces helped Singapore build up an army after gaining independence. Only Israel came to Singapore’s help.” — (Melissa, [03:29])

China's Strategic Partnership with Iran

[06:26–12:35] Key Segment

• China is the backbone of Iran’s economic survival.

  “It literally buys more than 80% of Iran’s total oil exports and does all the work necessary to bypass American sanctions… China is the backup, is the strategic depth of Iran.” — (Haviv, [07:11])

• China’s broader ambitions:

  • Seeks to displace the US-led world order with a “Sinocentric” system by 2049.
  • The Belt and Road Initiative serves as a neocolonial infrastructure and debt trap across the globe, including Iran — a key node both geographically and for resource flows.

• Ideological and strategic convergence:

  “Iran is just the perfect foil. Because of the eschatological myth of Iran and what it represents in third world national liberation rhetoric, Iran stands in opposition to the West. So, the ideological goals of both nations are completely aligned.” — (Melissa, [11:02])

• IRGC control of Iran’s economy and domestic stability — enabled by China’s financial and technological support.

Iran as China’s Proxy and Testing Ground

[12:35–19:43] Important Details

• Military and surveillance collaboration:

  • Iranian use of the Chinese Beidou satellite system allows circumvention of Western GPS ([12:49]).
  • Chinese cyber and electronic surveillance tech helped Iran suppress dissent (Starlink blocking during protests).

• Export of repression technology:

  “Iran has co-opted the Chinese technology of surveillance for its people... The repression apparatus that China has perfected at home.” — (Melissa, [13:52])

• Testing battleground:

  “The laboratories for a lot of these technologies are the Israel-Iran war.” — (Haviv, [17:35])

  • The war is not just kinetic; it’s also a proving ground for AI, surveillance, cyber, and information warfare — with China deeply embedded.

China’s Influence: Beyond Iran, Into Palestinian Territories and Global Narratives

[22:13–28:36] Key Insights

• Pro-Palestinian stance aligned with anti-Western agenda:

  • Consistent diplomatic protection for Hamas and the Palestinian cause at the UN.
  • Roots in Mao’s anti-imperialist foreign policy; longstanding support for the PLO.

  “China came to see Israel as the representative of US imperialism in the Middle East.” — (Melissa, [23:40])

• Post-Oct 7, 2025: “Mask off” moment

  “When the attacks happened, you had all the Western allies expressing solidarity... what China did was fail to actually condemn Hamas. The first instinct was to urge calm and restraint among all parties.” — (Melissa, [25:38])

• Palestinian media parroting Chinese CCP narratives, blending with anti-Taiwan rhetoric — indication of China’s information influence.

The Role of China in Global Antisemitism and Information Warfare

[28:36–34:43] Major Segment

• Antisemitism as a tool of “unrestricted warfare”:

  “Anti-semitic content is part of informational war… Not Israel is the game. The battlefield is the hearts and minds of young people in the West.” — (Melissa, [29:07])

• Elements of China’s information operations:

  • State media (Xinhua, CGTV) in multiple languages, including Arabic.
  • Bot farms and coordinated campaigns.
  • NGO-funneling (e.g., via Neville Roy Singham) funding for protests/pro-Palestinian activism.
  • Social platforms: especially TikTok (“pièce de résistance”) as an algorithmic engine for antisemitic and anti-Western messaging.

• Tangible effects:

  “Surveys show anyone who spends more than 30 minutes a day or more on TikTok is at least 17% more likely to hold antisemitic views.” — (Melissa, [33:21])

  • Comparison of strict Chinese censorship at home with what is deliberately allowed to trend abroad:

    “Anything that is trending (in China) is allowed to trend. There’s tacit approval from the government for that content to be spreading virally.” — (Melissa, [34:16])

Why Is Antisemitism Useful to China?

[39:54–42:49] Explainer

• Regional influence: Positions China as an ally to Arab and Gulf states.
• Wedge between Israel and the US:

  “The rise of the woke right has really made this coalition very fragile... Anti-semitic tropes have helped get us there.” — (Melissa, [40:36])

• Destabilization of the West:
  • Antisemitism as a “perfect wedge issue” in unrestricted warfare.

  “Anti-semitism is always the sign that a society is about to collapse... so easy to drum up, to weaken societies from within.” — (Melissa, [41:51])

Assessing China’s Penetration: How Bad Is It?

[43:32–47:45] Metaphor and Cautionary Notes

• China compared to microplastics:

  “China’s like microplastics. It’s in almost every institution.” — (Melissa, [46:22])

• Espionage and infiltration:

  • Massive scale of Chinese efforts, including against Israel’s tech and defense industry.

• Vigilance is the only antidote:

  “The only thing that prevents infiltration is vigilance.” — (Melissa, [47:03])

Can the West & Israel Respond Effectively?

[47:45–52:23] Strategic Outlook

• Western strengths:

  • Authoritarian systems produce “bad information” due to censorship — a recurring historical weakness.
  • Recent purges of China’s military leadership indicate latent instability.

• On Israel specifically:

  • Israel’s direct leverage on China is minimal.

    “Israel has no leverage over China. It just has to fight Iran and fight Iran hard enough that even China’s help for Iran doesn’t help Iran.” — (Haviv, [22:03])

  • Importance of safeguarding technology and data supply chains.

The White Pill: Chinese–Jewish Relations & Pragmatism

[35:07–39:54] Soothing Context

• No indigenous tradition of antisemitism in Chinese culture or history.

  “The word for Zionism in Mandarin… means ‘to return to your homeland’... There is no deep animus between Chinese and Jews. This is merely political expediency.” — (Melissa, [37:23])

• Chinese attitudes to Jews can “dial up or down” antisemitism for pragmatic reasons.
• Recent decrease in antisemitic bot activity linked to China hedging its bets as its alliances weaken.

China’s Leverage Through Technology and Trade: An Israeli Caution

[56:01–60:43] Tech Warning

• China’s trade integration is a “point of leverage”; not all trade is equal — critical electronic and smart infrastructure (e.g. smart grids, surveillance, EVs) presents national security risks.
• BYD & Nio Electric Vehicles:
  • Chinese EVs on IDF bases collected and transmitted sensitive data back to China.

  “They were basically surveillance platforms on wheels… They were collecting all this information and also transmitting data to Chinese servers.” — (Melissa, [57:34])

Notable Quotes

• “Iran is the… China is the sole guarantor of Iran’s economic survival… It literally buys more than 80% of Iran’s total oil exports…”
  — Haviv, [07:11]
• “If China is feeding Iran’s war machine and repression apparatus, it is also indirectly feeding… the instability of the region.”
  — Melissa, [18:34]
• “The lab for a lot of these technologies is the Israel-Iran war.”
  — Haviv, [17:35]

Optimism & Final Thoughts

• Both Melissa and Haviv express cautious optimism:
  • China’s internal problems, military instability, and demographic “time bomb” limit its long-term strategic trajectory.
  • Western and Israeli vigilance, resilience, and adaptability remain keys to offsetting China’s multi-level campaigns.
  • Israel needs to safeguard its high-tech edge and “wake up” to the overlooked Chinese threat behind Iran and in its own infrastructure.

Closing:

“Thank you so much for helping me to explain to our audience that Israel needs to understand that there’s a much larger picture here — that China is a big, significant, dramatic part of this picture. It’s a huge part of the Iran threat. It’s a huge part of a global architecture that I think threatens us all.” — Haviv, [60:43]

End of Summary