Ask The Compound: Which Beaten Down Stocks Are Worth a Closer Look?

Date: April 1, 2026
Hosts: Ben Carlson & Duncan Hill

Episode Overview

This episode tackles some of the most pressing questions from Compound’s audience during a turbulent market period marked by notable drawdowns in major tech stocks ("Mag 7") and unexpected strengths from less-discussed sectors. Ben and Duncan dive into the underlying performance dynamics of the US stock market, examine whether the sell-off has created bargain opportunities, debate the impact and wisdom of 24/7 trading, analyze why today’s valuations are higher than in previous decades, and share advice for financial advisors looking to build a personal brand.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Mag 7 Sell-Off and Index Fund Performance

(02:27 – 05:31)

• Context: Listener asks how S&P 500 index funds hold up when the "Mag 7" (top mega cap tech stocks) sell off.
• Ben's Analysis:
  • Every Mag 7 stock is currently in correction (down 10%+), with Tesla, Meta, and Microsoft in a bear market.
  • Despite this, the S&P 500 is only down 7-8% from its highs, while the Mag 7 index is down almost 14% YTD.
  • Equal-weighted S&P 500 is flat to slightly positive, buoyed by sectors like energy, materials, and industrials.
  • Quote: “People look at it in a vacuum. If the Mag 7 crashes, the market is screwed. …And there is [a counterbalance]. These other stocks are doing. Energy stocks are almost 40% this year now, they make up like 4% of the index. …So far it’s helping.” (04:24 - 05:26)
• Conclusion: Market breadth offers resilience—the fall in tech is countered by gains elsewhere, at least for now.

2. Where to Go Bargain Hunting?

(06:48 – 14:18)

• Duncan’s Question: Are there “babies being thrown out with the bathwater” among beaten-down stocks?
• Ben’s Breakdown of Troubled Sectors:
  (Ben categorizes and lists household names that have dropped 10-80%+ in the past year.)
  • Software: Adobe, Salesforce, CoreWeave (down 50–60%+)
  • Private Equity Managers: KKR, Apollo, Blackstone (down 40–50%)
  • Credit Cards/Financial: Capital One, Ally, American Express, Visa, MasterCard (down 17–30%)
  • Fintech: Robinhood (down 55%), Coinbase (down 60%), Block/Square (down 80% since 2022)
• Ben’s Approach:
  • Hesitant to speculate in names facing existential tech risks (software, fintech).
  • Prefers "plug your nose and buy" approach for blue chip companies after big corrections:
    • Microsoft, Meta, Netflix: All down about a third. High-quality, proven business models.
    • Quote: “With the caveat that I'm generally not very good at this, here are three stocks I think you could pretty much plug your nose and buy every time they're down like this…” (10:09)
• Duncan’s Moves: Has been buying Microsoft “because we've had multiple guests recently talking about Microsoft and making good cases for it.” (12:09)
• Meta’s Durability: Despite losing billions on metaverse, rebounded after 70% drawdown—regulatory/lawsuit fears are ever-present, but market shrugs when core business is strong.
• Amex Noted as a Buffett Favorite: “Amex, he bought it in like 1964. So I don’t know if we can still call it…” (14:34)

3. Is 24/7 Trading a Bad Idea?

(14:44 – 18:59)

• Listener Dave’s Concern: 24/7 trading would remove cooling-off windows and fuel speculative/compulsive behavior.
• Ben’s Take:
  • Prefers markets to have downtime, especially in high volatility/bear markets, to allow reflection and calm.
  • Views 24/7 trading as inevitable: “This is just where the world’s going, right? People want to gamble… But you can still be a low frequency trader in a high frequency world.” (16:09)
  • Cautions that after-hours means less liquidity, wider spreads, more volatility—pros will likely profit at expense of amateurs.
• Duncan’s Perspective: Sees some appeal (“there is something nice about just being able to do it”), but overall agrees with Ben’s reservations about the change fueling more reactive trading.

4. Why Are Stock Market Valuations So Much Higher Today?

(19:05 – 26:06)

• Listener Mark’s Theory:
  • Higher valuations since 1990 driven by massive capital inflows (401k shift, wealth concentration), institutional allocations to equities, and shrinking public company pool.
• Ben’s Deep Dive:
  • Number of Stocks: Wilshire 5000 peaked at 7,000+ firms (1990s), now below 4,000; most microcaps, not much in total value lost.
  • Disproving "Supply Shrinkage" Argument: Market cap more concentrated, but big businesses have diversified business lines; fractional shares mean size isn’t a limiter.
  • The Real Drivers (Key Quote, 25:26):
    • “Automatic investing revolution, higher allocation to stocks, people are more knowledgeable, and corporations are more efficient.”
    • More investors are funneled automatically into equities via default 401k settings and high allocations for decades (nearly 70-90% for younger investors).
    • Corporate margins/profits are much higher for tech-driven giants.
    • “Shouldn't valuations be higher in a world where companies are earning more profits and they're more efficient in how they earn those profits as the margins increase? That would make sense to me.” (25:26)
• Duncan’s Reflection: Surprised at how much harder it used to be to diversify or even know what stocks existed.

5. Content Creation for Advisors: What Works?

(27:12 – 35:31)

• Listener Brennan (30-year-old CFP): Asks whether it’s better to publish articles in major publications or focus on personal brand/content.

• Ben’s Story & Advice:

  • Started his blog (2013) with zero audience, low expectations—writing for himself, friends, and family.
  • Emphasizes ownership: Building your own site/newsletter (Substack or Beehive) is better than scattering work on external platforms.
  • Email newsletters are most effective: “It’s the only thing—that’s the last place people still check every single day.” (28:09)
  • Write regularly, in your voice, and build a “library of expertise” answering common client questions.
  • Focus on immediate audience (clients/prospects), not trying to be the next influencer. If your reach expands, that’s a bonus.
  • Media trends: Writing is less competitive, but personal flavor and clarity triumph over jargon-heavy trade writing.
  • Quote: “Financial services is a trust-based industry. There’s no widget you produce at the end. People want to know that you’ve thought about this stuff.” (30:49)

• Duncan’s Addition: Podcasting/video is optional—only do it if you’re genuinely interested, not just for business.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Mag 7 correction:
  “Once you think you have the market figured out, it changes the rules on you.” (03:37, Ben)

• On market breadth:
  “Energy stocks are almost 40% this year now, they make up like 4% of the index.” (04:24, Ben)

• On bottom fishing:
  “If you’re going to do this, go bottom fishing, you’ve got to be willing to—okay, I’m buying Microsoft down a third, it might be down 40% in two weeks. I don’t know.” (14:01, Ben)

• On 24/7 trading:
  “Just because 24/7 trading exists… doesn’t mean you have to participate in it. You can still be a low-frequency trader in a high-frequency world.” (16:09, Ben)

• On valuations:
  “Margins have marched higher… shouldn’t valuations be higher in a world where companies are earning more profits and they’re more efficient in how they earn those profits?” (25:26, Ben)

• On content creation:
  “The most important thing you can do still to this day is getting into someone’s email inbox.” (28:09, Ben)

• On writing style:
  “Write for your current and future clients… build a library of expertise that answers questions you know people will have.” (30:06, Ben)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:27] – Mag 7 sell-off and S&P resilience
• [06:48] – What’s been hammered: watch list of bargain stocks
• [10:52] – Meta, Microsoft, Netflix as “boring” rebound bets
• [14:44] – Is 24/7 trading a terrible idea?
• [19:05] – Why are valuations so much higher today?
• [27:12] – Advice for advisors: building a brand and client trust online

Tone & Style

Ben and Duncan’s discussion is conversational, candid, and tinged with wry humor—balancing data-driven insights and long-term investment wisdom with self-deprecation (“I’m not very good at stock picking,” Ben) and relatability (“throwing those tubs up? We lost another baby”). The tone is educational but non-technical, emphasizing approachable language and real-world examples over theory or jargon.

Summary

For investors worried about market corrections, this episode demonstrates how sector and index diversity can cushion blue-chip drawdowns. Cautious optimism is recommended for buying bruised industry leaders like Microsoft and Meta, but with the humility that cycles can always surprise. The hosts are skeptical about the wisdom of non-stop trading, seeing more risk of speculation than benefit. For advisors seeking visibility, authenticity and owning the client relationship via quality, email-based content wins over chasing prestige in major publications. Above all, the theme is clear: market history, business models, and personal connection matter—timing and fads less so.

Got a question for Ben and Duncan? Email askthecompoundshowmail.com