Podcast Summary: Ask The Compound – "Why Won’t the Stock Market Go Down?"
Date: March 11, 2026
Hosts: Ben Carlson, Duncan Hill
Guests: Barry Ritholtz, Blair duQuesnay
Episode Overview
In this insightful episode, Ben Carlson and Duncan Hill are joined live in Miami by Barry Ritholtz and later by Blair duQuesnay for a lively, candid discussion on why the stock market seems so resilient—even in the face of alarming headlines, surging oil prices, and geopolitical chaos. The team takes real listener questions about market volatility, the risks of concentration, the emotional/financial calculus of taking a career break, and more. Their answers cut through the noise to offer perspective during uncertain times.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Why Aren’t Markets Reacting More Strongly to Crises?
- Context: Amid global conflicts (notably with Iran), oil has spiked 60% this year, futures tanked, and overseas markets like Japan took significant hits. Yet the U.S. stock market keeps regaining losses.
- Barry’s Core Insight:
- “It’s not the news, it’s the reaction to the news.” (02:49)
- U.S. energy independence and the declining share of energy in the typical household budget (down to 7% from 12% in the ’70s) means Americans are less vulnerable to oil shocks.
- Ben adds:
- Historically, this environment would have triggered a deep correction (10-15%), but now the market is barely budging.
- “Emerging market stocks are down 9%. The EFA is down 7%. … It’s not even anything bad yet. … It’s almost a good thing that the markets are like, all right, let’s just wait before we freak out.” (04:30)
Memorable Quote
“The future is inherently unknown and unknowable. … If we stop thinking in binary terms…and start thinking of what’s likely to happen, what’s the range? You end up with something a little more reasonable.”
– Barry Ritholtz (04:49)
2. Are Investors Becoming Too Complacent? The Risk of a “Minsky Moment”
- Concern: Could complacency about transitory events lead to a destabilizing surprise?
- Barry:
- Risks do exist—if events spiral (e.g., U.S. exhausts missile stocks, China invades Taiwan) these are “non zero possibility” tail risks.
- However, if you can imagine it, it’s not really a Black Swan. The market is bracing for a range of scenarios, not overreacting to every development.
Notable Moment
“The market effect is gapping down and then, you know, settling in.”
– Barry Ritholtz (05:47)
3. Market Leadership: Energy, Tech, or Gold?
- Duncan asks: Which asset class—energy stocks, tech, or gold—will outperform in the year ahead? (06:19)
- Ben: Leans towards tech as the easy answer, given ongoing innovation.
- Barry:
- Contrarian: Wonders if all current chaos is already priced into gold, suggesting plateau/lower is more likely than another surge:
“Unless something really goes off the rails, I think the path of least resistance is plateau or lower, not doubling from here.” (07:18)
- Contrarian: Wonders if all current chaos is already priced into gold, suggesting plateau/lower is more likely than another surge:
4. Do Markets Now Act as the Only “Rule of Law”?
- Listener question: In a profit-driven world, do financial markets overrule government decisions?
- Ben: Argues that markets functionally serve as a “check” on policymakers—if profits are threatened, leaders back down (e.g., “TACO” - “Trump Always Chickens Out”).
- Barry:
- Points out the unique dominance of the U.S. market due to sanctity of contracts and rule of law, but ultimately markets are amoral:
“Markets are amoral because it’s just an unthinking interface between buyers and sellers, between supply and demand. It’s not casting moral judgments.” (09:33)
- Market reactions can drive political reversals if declines are steep.
- Points out the unique dominance of the U.S. market due to sanctity of contracts and rule of law, but ultimately markets are amoral:
5. What Would It Take to Trigger a U.S. Recession?
- Ben: Asks how bad things would have to get—a sharp, sustained oil price spike?
- Barry:
- Notes labor market softness (five of last nine months negative), policy “errors,” or energy shock could finally tip the economy, but so far, every crisis has been absorbed.
“Consumer sentiment has been in the tank for 10 years… Hasn’t made a difference. Every time consumers say, we feel terrible, excuse us while we go online and buy all this stuff.” (13:14)
- AI’s role as a labor market offset is highlighted—maybe absorbing labor slack.
- Will there be a recession by late 2026? Barry puts odds at 50%:
“I think that is pretty close to 50/50 at this point.” (16:05)
- Notes labor market softness (five of last nine months negative), policy “errors,” or energy shock could finally tip the economy, but so far, every crisis has been absorbed.
- Ben counters: Betting markets put odds at 30%—suggests lower actual risk.
Memorable Analogy
“You can’t die jumping out of a six inch window. … But if you’re six floors up, that’s a different story.”
– Ben and Barry (15:05)
6. Will Rising Oil Prices Kill the Case for Rate Cuts?
- Question: Are rate cuts off the table for now?
- Barry (swiftly): “Oh, for sure. Yes.” (16:58)
7. Personal Finance Q&A With Blair duQuesnay
A. Taking a Mid-Career Break (18:04)
- Listener profile: Early 40s, strong net worth ($2.1M), high income, wants to pause career due to burnout.
- Blair:
- “You can do anything different for a short period of time. So this 10 month time horizon, 10 months of not saving and potentially dwindling down your cash reserves is not going to make or break a financial plan.” (18:34)
- Advice: Pad cash reserves for 6–12 months, then take the break. The risk is manageable and the emotional toll of misery is too high to ignore.
B. Risk of Concentrated Stock Holdings (21:17)
- Listener: Retired CPA, portfolio extremely concentrated in Berkshire (37%) and Prologis (29%).
- Blair:
- Strongly recommends diversification despite the tax hit:
“If you’re going to spend this money ever, you owe tax, you already owe that tax. Delaying that tax does not change the fact that you owe the tax.” (22:04)
- Berkshire’s cash does not equate to liquidity or safety for shareholders.
- Consider donating appreciated stock, offload the risk gradually.
- Strongly recommends diversification despite the tax hit:
Notable Quote
“There will be another bear market. … You already know you have an issue here. So just start attacking it.”
– Blair duQuesnay (23:31)
C. FIRE and Hating Your Job
- General advice: If dreading work, finding a less stressful job or taking a break can be worth more than maximizing wealth for its own sake.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Barry Ritholtz (02:49): “It’s not the news, it’s the reaction to the news.”
- Barry (04:49): “The future is inherently unknown and unknowable. … Stop thinking in binary terms.”
- Ben (13:14): “At the very least, consumer sentiment is just going to tank with $4 a gallon gas.”
- Blair (22:04): “Delaying that tax does not change the fact that you owe the tax.”
- Barry (16:58): “Oh, for sure. Yes.” (when asked if rate cuts are off the table)
- Ben & Barry (15:05): “You can’t die jumping out of a six inch window. … But if you’re six floors up, that’s a different story.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 01:40 – Opening question: volatility, war, oil spikes
- 02:49 – Barry on market reactions and U.S. energy independence
- 06:19 – Energy vs. tech vs. gold: what wins next year?
- 07:42 – Are markets the new rule of law?
- 11:20 – TACO, market checks on policy, and political consequences
- 12:03 – Recession risk: What would it take?
- 13:57 – Renewables and energy transition
- 16:52 – Are rate cuts off the table? (quick hit)
- 18:04 – Blair: Should a listener take a sabbatical?
- 21:17 – Blair: Danger of concentrated portfolios
- 24:24 – Closing remarks, live show wrap-up
Tone & Style
Informal, witty, and direct—the hosts and guests use plain language, pop culture analogies, and candid opinions to demystify complicated market dynamics and personal finance questions.
For Listeners
This episode delivers context behind market resilience, practical risk management advice, and permission to weigh wellbeing over blind wealth accumulation. Even seasoned investors and finance professionals will find reminders about the emotional side of money and the traps of complacency—all in classic Compound style.