Two weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, Darren uses Robert Pape's cost-benefit framework to assess where things stand. The tactical achievements are real — two-thirds of Iran's missile launchers destroyed, its navy sunk, its leadership decapitated — but the probability of converting those gains into durable strategic outcomes is low, and the costs are mounting fast.

On the military side, interceptor stocks are being depleted at unsustainable rates, and missile defence assets may be being redeployed from South Korea in a move that achieves what Chinese coercion could not. Economically, Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered what may be the largest oil supply disruption in history, with cascading effects through gas, fertiliser, and food markets arriving at the worst possible moment in the agricultural calendar. Strategically, Russia is profiting, China is learning, Gulf allies are furious, and the non-proliferation incentive structure has been inverted.

Darren assesses the range of plausible outcomes — from a painful but temporary shock to a nuclear-armed Iran within eighteen months — and examines the factors that will determine how the war ends, including US-Israel divergence, Trump's contradictory signals, and Iran's determination to ensure this is the last time it is attacked. He closes with an observation about weaponised interdependence: that a sanctioned middle power with cheap drones and a narrow strait has exposed the gap between America's capacity to destroy and its capacity to control.

Australia in the World is written, hosted, and produced by Darren Lim, with research and editing this episode by Hannah Nelson and theme music composed by Rory Stenning.

Relevant links

Robert Pape, Bombing to win (1996): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/761594.Bombing_to_Win

Caitlin Talmadge, “Closing Time: Assessing Possible Outcomes of U.S.-Iranian Conflict in the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security, 33(1), summer 2008: 82-11: http://www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/4/1/85419560/closing_time.pdf

Caitlin Talmadge, "The Hormuz Minefield", Foreign Affairs, 13 March 2026: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-minefield

Vali Nasr, "Iran is playing a long game", Financial Times, 13 March: https://www.ft.com/content/93b7b65d-074b-4e8b-807f-5c27c7362213

Matthew Continetti, "Iran Can't Hold the World Hostage", Wall Street Journal, 13 March: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/free-expression/iran-cant-hold-the-world-hostage-05f595a4

Greg Brew, "The global oil crisis is even worse than it looks" (interview), Vox, 11 March: https://www.vox.com/politics/482142/oil-gas-prices-iran-war-inflation

B.A. Friedman, "Orphaned Tactics", Fire for Effect Substack, 9 March: https://bafriedman.substack.com/p/orphaned-tactics

Danny Citrinowicz, thread on tactical success masking strategic failure, X/Twitter, 14 March: https://x.com/citrinowicz/status/2032786358930972854

Ezra Klein, "I Asked a Former Trump Official to Justify This War" (interview with Nadia Schadlow), New York Times, 10 March: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/10/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-nadia-schadlow.html

Foreign Policy Live debate: Matthew Kroenig vs Trita Parsi, Foreign Policy, 12 March: https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/12/kroenig-parsi-debate-war-in-iran/

Shelby Talcott, “Israel is running critically low on interceptors, US officials say”, Semafor, 15 March: https://www.semafor.com/article/03/14/2026/israel-is-running-critically-low-on-interceptors-us-officials-say

Gideon Rachman, "Simon Gass on Iran" (interview), The Rachman Review podcast, 12 March: https://www.ft.com/content/cba7352f-aac0-4a6a-8919-c0597bc94c43

Rory Johnston and Nader Itayim, Oil Ground Up podcast, 13 March: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7uPA9g5dWIYcvGH6vSSpEh

Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, "Oil markets" and "Fertiliser" episodes, Odd Lots podcast, 13–14 March: https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots

China Talk podcast, "Second Breakfast: Iran", 14 March: https://www.chinatalk.media/p/iran-war-with-shashank

Jake Sullivan and John Finer, interview with Danny Citrinowicz, The Long Game podcast, 12 March: https://staytuned.substack.com/p/america-doesnt-understand-iran-and

Economist Intelligence podcast, " Lone goals: will US-Israel war aims diverge?", 13 March: https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2026/03/13/lone-goals-will-us-israel-war-aims-diverge